Making the NCAA tournament is nothing new for Amherst’s long-time head coach Dave Hixon, and this weekend marks the sixth straight year that the mascotless team from Central Massachusetts is in the Little Division’s Big Dance. Amherst enters the tournament feeling a little deja vu after losing the NESCAC championship game for the second straight year to a young, hungry team that needed to win the game in order to make the NCAA tournament.
The rotation for Amherst is exactly the same as it was last season, and so it is a fair question to ask if there is anything different about the team this season compared to last. The team has not changed their style of play much, but Hixon insists that things have changed.
A lot of guys have gotten a little bit better. Racy is a more consistent player. The trip to Italy over the summer all by ourselves for a week helped with our consistency and chemistry. Trust me, we are better than we were last year – Coach Dave Hixon
Husson Overview
Husson is not a complete unknown since the Bangor, Maine team played all of Colby, Bowdoin, and Bates. They went 2-1 against them, getting blown out by Bates in December, beating Colby in overtime in January, and blowing out Bowdoin late in January. They finished first in the regular season for their conference and won their conference tournament. The tempo that Husson plays at is FAST, as they average 88.9 PPG and have two players averaging over 20 PPG. Guard Trevon Butler ’16 averages 21.7 PPG and forward Raheem Anderson pours in 21.0 PPG. Husson shoots a ton of threes too, 25.0 per game, which puts them just below Amherst in terms of shooting threes. Husson is nothing special defensively allowing close to 80 PPG, and teams are shooting 42.7 percent from the field against them. Husson is a power in their conference making the NCAA tournament 17 times before, but they are dreadful in the NCAAs with a record of 1-17.
Amherst X-Factor: Center Eric Conklin ’17
A theme of NCAA tournament games is that NESCAC teams usually have a size advantage inside that they can exploit. For Amherst, Conklin is a much more adept player than David George ’17 at scoring by using positioning and strength. Conklin, the Arizona transfer, is listed at 6’6″ 235 lbs, and Husson has only one player, 6’5″ 225 lbs Zach Curran ’17, that can match that size. George’s strength is on the defensive end where he is a menace in the lane, but against a team that shoots so many threes, that matters much less. Hixon might go to Conklin for extended stretches to try to get easy buckets in the half-court offense. Conklin has scored in every game this year, an impressive feat for a player that has averaged just 16.1 MPG. He could score a bunch tonight.
Husson X-Factor: Guard Eli Itkin ’17
I believe for Husson to win that they have to beat Amherst at their own game which means the Eagles need to make a lot of threes. Itkin is the best pure shooter on the roster shooting 50.0 percent on 3.2 threes per game. Two weeks ago he exploded for 27 much needed points in large part because he shot 7-9 from three point land. Of course,
Three Questions
1. Does a track meet develop?
Amherst is no slouch either on the offensive end of course, and Hixon admitted that he is not going to slow his team down on the offensive end. He acknowledged that Amherst is best offensively when going fast in transition and emphasized that slowing down Husson would have to happen on the defensive end. Amherst’s ability to have so many players guard multiple positions makes it possible for them to play great transition defense when matchups frequently get mixed up. When you throw in how many threes both teams take and how those tend to lead to long rebounds and runouts… odds are this one becomes a track meet.
2. Does another Husson player step up?
Remember in the NESCAC quarterfinal when Amherst played Bowdoin and Jack Simonds ’19 and Lucas Hausman ’16 went off for a combined 54 points but it wasn’t enough to bring down the team from Central Mass. Anderson and Bulter are great players, but a couple other players will need to score double-digits for Husson to keep up. Husson plays a lot of players between 15-20 MPG, so it could be any number of players that step up. The Eagles definitely need one of their big men to do a good job on the boards too.
3. Who makes their threes?
If you like old school basketball where the game is won and lost in the paint, then this is not the game for you. Both coaches are fine with their teams letting it go from deep. Hixon insists that “I don’t count how many threes we shot.” And I believe him considering how much Amherst does shoot the ball. Of course, neither of these teams have Steph Curry or Klay Thompson on their teams (Jeff Racy ’17 has been doing a fine impression though), and so some games the shots simply don’t fall. Amherst’s ability to switch onto anybody is to Hixon the biggest reason why other teams shoot so poorly against them. Being at home also helps Amherst somewhat.
What to Expect
From a sheer talent standpoint, Amherst is a clearly better team than Husson. At the same time, Amherst is the more talented team practically every time they step onto the court. They have a big size advantage at every position. I’m interested in how they balance getting after it on the offensive boards with focusing on getting guys back on defense to slow down Husson.
It feels crazy that I’ve made it this far in the preview and not made mention of Connor Green ’16, Johnny McCarthy ’18, and Michael Riopel ’18. These are going to be the guys that slow down the two Husson stars on one end and provide a lot of the offensive punch too. You never know what you are going to get from these guys, and Hixon admits that it is always a balancing act trying to figure out which guys are playing on any given night. That extends to the point guard position too of course. Amherst needs to limit their turnovers, a potential Achilles heel against a quicker Husson team.
Amherst catches a break getting to host the first weekend even though they didn’t win the NESCAC tournament. Yet when I asked Hixon if it mattered he responded, “doesn’t make a difference to me to be playing at home.” Now I’m guessing his players would disagree with him on that. Another thing that Amherst has been dealing with behind the scenes is a lot of nagging injuries. Green, Riopel, and McCarthy all missed time in the week leading up to the NESCAC semifinals, but Amherst has been able to have full practices this week to get ready. That could make a big difference as players should be in a better rhythm.
Hixon acknowledged that March is different. “It’s about telling guys about how it is one and done if you let down for just a second.” That urgency is something that Amherst seems to lack in some games, but they will have plenty of it now. This team did not develop into the juggernaut that I thought they were capable of being at the beginning of the season. The pieces don’t fit quite right, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of making a deep run in the tournament. I like their matchup a lot tonight and think they get through the first round relatively easily.
Amherst over Husson 85-74
Eye on Saturday
Things look to be harder if Amherst gets through to Saturday, but neither of WPI or Cortland State are dominant. WPI went 20-6 overall and 10-4 in the NEWMAC. They got an at-large bid after losing to MIT in the NEWMAC seimfinals. They started the season really well going 16-2 including wins over Bates and Tufts. They have stumbled a bit since then. One WPI fan on the D3boards described his team by saying, “But to borrow a baseball analogy – the batters keep muttering to themselves after grounding out to 2nd base 3 times in a row. Hard to brag about the boys – but all they do is win.” They play at a slow pace averaging less than 70.0 PPG, and their best scorer is forward Clyde Niba ’17, a big man with a smooth jump shot.
Cortland State is more of an unknown since they haven’t played any NESCAC team this year. They got in because they won their conference tournament, the SUNYAC. However, they barely won both of those games, and they got lucky in not having to play the top seed Plattsburgh State. Guard Blair Estarfaa ’17 is their leading scorer, and he is dangerous when he gets going from downtown. JP Reagan ’16, a Cortland native, is their leading big man inside and is second on the team in PPG. All in all, this is a pretty favorable route to the Sweet Sixteen for Amherst, but you can never be sure in the NCAA tournament.