Now that last weekend was, in a word, surprising, it’s a bit challenging to say how this weekend will turn out. If this pattern of upsets continues across the board, we’re looking at an entirely new—albeit pretty dysfunctional—conference. But that’s NESCAC Baseball for you, always keeping you on your toes.
Poor weather strikes the NESCAC yet again, postponing at least the Wesleyan vs. Hamilton series for a day (i.e. the DH remains on Saturday, but Game 3 will be Sunday, not Friday). I know it’s not worth it to pray to Mother Nature to hold off on the rain, but hopefully the weekend won’t be entirely messed up due to crummy weather and thus crummy fields.
This weekend preview is a bit more concentrated than usual, with players to watch for in each series. The projected pitchers are not listed in order of when they will pitch; they are just the candidates we will most likely see on the bump sometime during the weekend’s games.
NESCAC Games
Colby vs Tufts—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Amherst vs Middlebury—Friday 4:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Wesleyan vs Hamilton—Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm; Sunday 12:00 pm
Bates vs Trinity—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Williams vs Bowdoin—Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm; Sunday 12:00 pm (games don’t count towards conference standings)
The Run-Down
Colby vs Tufts—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Players to Watch:
- 3B Zach Ellenthal ’16: Adam Lamont wrote about this senior earlier in the week, but I think mentioning him again only emphasizes how crucial he is to Colby’s series against Tufts. Ellenthal is currently the Mules’ best chance of getting runs this weekend. He holds a team-high slashline of .370/.477/.574 and currently ranks better than all of one Jumbo hitter (Harry Brown). In fact, Colby’s batters are generally hitting better than Tufts right now. If Ellenthal can outsmart Tufts’ unforgiving pitchers, he’ll open the door for the rest of his teammates to wear down and intimidate the bump. (FYI: He was this week’s NESCAC Player of the Week).
- P Andrew David ’16: The guy holds a 2.27 ERA in 35.2 innings pitched and manages 10.09 K/G—that’s brutal.. for hitters. Right now he sits in the top five pitchers in the NESCAC, placed right behind this week’s rival pitcher Soren Hanson of Colby (who boasts a 2.23 ERA and strikes out about 10.58 batters per game). David isn’t going to take mercy on the Mules at bat, likely striking out most of Colby’s batting lineup throughout his innings on the mound.
This series is going to be a battle of the pitchers. With both teams hitting slightly below average (Tufts at .294, Colby at .291), the dominant players on the mound (see above) will really be forces to be reckoned with—forces that will probably strike many batters out and lead to a series of low runs and quick innings. Tufts’ is unquestionably the superior team, and a lot of it will be seen this weekend in their defense, which rocks a league-high .965 FPCT. Colby doesn’t have the same consistency in the field at .945, so it’s safe to say the Jumbos will have more luck making it around the bases.
Prediction: Tufts wins 3
Amherst vs Middlebury—Friday 4:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Players to Watch:
- C/INF Dave Cunningham ’16: With a .992 FPCT and just one error, Cunningham isn’t going to give Middlebury the errors they enjoyed last week at Hamilton. At bat, he’s also proven himself to be quite reliable, as he holds a .348/.400/.464 slash line. Amherst will need to be consistent on both offense and defense in order to win the series and prevent Middlebury from outsmarting their mistakes, and Cunningham represents the type of player the Jeffs can count on in both areas.
- C John Luke ’16: Last week the senior hit a nice .455, going 10-for-22 with five RBIs, four runs scored and a pair of doubles. Against Hamilton alone, he hit .500, going 3-for-5 in game one then 3-for-6 in game three—helping improve his slash line to .380/.415/.493. In his final year, Luke is killing it at the plate, showing serious progress from his previous years with the Panthers. But that’s not all—he’s dominating behind the plate, with 126 putouts and a FPCT of .993. He only has one error. This season Luke is top-notch everywhere he needs to be, and that has prepared him to take on Amherst.
I’m actually thrilled to say that for the first time in a long time, the Panthers have a solid shot of preventing Amherst’s series sweep. They took a game from Wesleyan and capitalized on Hamilton’s errors to take two—what’s Amherst now but another team to be outsmarted by the underdogs?
Don’t get me wrong, Middlebury has talent that should not be confused with just luck. Having worked the scoresheet for all the Hamilton vs. Middlebury games, I can attest to Adam’s claims about P/DH Joe MacDonald ’16 both on the mound and at the plate. Luke, Colin Waters ’19, and Brendan Donohue ’18 also intimidated the Continentals during the series. The Panther rookies really are a great start for the rising program, and the veterans players are showing a lot of growth.
Nevertheless, Amherst has more talent and doesn’t need luck to get wins. They’re going to make the Panthers work a heck of a lot harder than they did last weekend and will show them who’s the real NESCAC powerhouse.
Prediction: Amherst wins 2
Wesleyan vs Hamilton—Friday 4:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Players to Watch:
- SS Guy Davidson ’16: Watching Davidson play (albeit via live stream) is pretty incredible. In 105 times at the plate, he’s picked up a .410/.538/.671 slash line with a whopping 15 doubles, three triples, and two home runs. In his four games for Wesleyan last week, he finished 7-for-17 (.417), dominating the Ephs with three doubles, one triple, three RBIs, two runs scored and a walk.
- LF Ryan Wolfsberg ’17: Wolfsberg—with a beautiful, conference-topping .461/.538/.671 slash line—is pretty amazing at the plate, and everyone knows it: I the ultra-stats person know it, the Continentals know it, the conference knows it, and he himself knows it. Though Hamilton had a rough weekend, the juniot hit a solid .667 (8-for-12) with a .643 on-base percentage and 1.250 slugging percentage against Middlebury last weekend, adding to his resume a solo home run three hits, two doubles, a triple and more in those three games alone. He has hit safely in seven straight games—which will be an important factor this weekend—and has driven in at least one run in six in a row. He admittedly aims for a home run with every at bat, it’s always intriguing to see just how many times he comes close to that mission.
Wesleyan has been NESCAC Champion for two years; Hamilton is the underdog team evolving into more than just an upstart. In most years, it would be a given that the Cardinals would sweep the series—they are and have been for several seasons the dominant team. But several key factors come into play this year. First, this year’s batch of Continentals shows the tremendous development of the Hamilton program. Second, Wesleyan is developing a tendency to experience upsets, namely losing to Middlebury at the beginning of the season and dropping two games in their series against Williams last weekend.
Let’s look at the stats: Both teams lead the league in hitting, the Cardinals with a .355 batting average followed by the Continental’s .346 (compare: the third highest average is Amherst’s .319). In fact, their entire slash lines are similar: Wesleyan’s .355/.435/.493 is just slightly above Hamilton’s .346/.440/.480. Clearly these two teams are superior at the plate On the mound, Hamilton has actually surpassed Wesleyan, racking up an ERA of 4.30 while the latter only has a 5.21. Then there’s the drastic difference between Hamilton’s 53 walks allowed and Wesleyan’s 100. The Cardinals have only played two more games than the Continentals, so this staggering difference is not relative to games played. I’m expecting we’ll see some big hits from the usual suspects and plenty of outs at the plate.
However, Hamilton’s number of putouts (483) and FPCT (.929) is currently the worst in the league, no doubt as a result of all those ugly, entirely avoidable, kind of just pathetic errors committed in last weekend’s series against Middlebury. If the Continentals don’t keep their heads in the game and play to their potential, they are very much at risk of letting Wesleyan earn excessive runs due to their own deficiencies. Hamilton’s non-conference game against Saint Lawrence University on Tuesday had fewer errors, and I’d like to think that is a reflection of the team’s a) natural talent, b) uncharacteristically bad weekend against the Panthers, and/or c) realization of their ghastly mistakes over the weekend and strong desire to prevent future embarrassments.
Hamilton can prevent a series sweep, perhaps even win two of the three—if they play to their full potential.
Prediction: Wesleyan wins 2
Bates vs Trinity—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Players to Watch:
- P Connor Colombo ’16: Colombo just misses the number-one slot in NESCAC with a 1.78 ERA in 30.1 innings on the bump. Against the Bantams, Bates needs to be a stronger force on the mound to compensate for similar batting averages, and Colombo will help Bobcats be that superior team.
- Nick Pezzella ’16: Thankfully for the Bantams, Pezzella is full of much-needed firepower at the plate. Last weekend the senior went 6-11 in three games (against Tufts), producing three runs, a double, two homers, five RBIs, a walk, and two stolen paces. In each game, he had two hits on the Jumbo’s pitchers.
As Adam noted earlier this week, Trinity is in quite a sticky situation right now: the Bantams lost all three games against Tufts, placing them in last in the East. This series against Bates is essential if Trinity has any hopes of making the playoffs, or just staying in one piece in the conference. Up at bat, the Bobcats and the Bantams are practically identical, hitting .275 and .279 respectively. While Trinity more frequently hits for power, earning a .394 slugging average compared to Bates’ .352, Bates is slightly luckier when it comes to actually making it on base.
Prediction: Bates wins 2
Williams vs Bowdoin—Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm; Sunday 12:00 pm
Players to Watch:
- 1B/P Nathan Michalski ’17: Michalski trails Bowdoin’s Chad Martin in NESCAC fielding standings with a .989 FPCT and two errors in 23 games. It’ll be interesting to see how strong skills on defense prevent the already struggling Polar Bear offense from racking up runs.
- P Harry Ridge ’16: If Bowdoin is going to compensate for deficiencies at the plate, they need to prevent Williams from getting too far ahead in runs. Ridge has a 2.81 ERA and has walked only six players while allowing only one home run. It’s likely the Polar Bears will rely on pitchers to give the Ephs a hard time this weekend, and Ridge has the highest chances of doing so.
After winning their series against Wesleyan, the Ephs are likely riding on a high this week against the Polar Bears.
Bowdoin has the poor batting history (i.e. the team’s in dead last) compared to Williams, hitting .266/.350/.359 compared to the Eph’s .309/.404/.394. Thankfully for the Polar Bears, Williams has the highest ERA in the league at 7.73 and only 4.36 K/G, so there’s a chanced that their subpar performance at the plate won’t actually matter. Bowdoin, meanwhile, does pretty well on the bump with a 4.14 ERA—definitely a sign that there questionable pitching rotation has become more cohesive in the last week or so. We always love to see teams play each other in cross-division matchups even it doesn’t count for the standings, and this will be a fun series regardless.
Prediction: Bowdoin wins 2