Well it’s finally here. It felt at times as if we were never going to have four NESCAC playoff teams but one of the more riveting regular seasons in recent memory just ended. The playoff chase closed with Amherst beating Middlebury in a de facto playoff game, clinching the West Division for the Mammoths and ending Midd’s remarkable last gasp postseason surge. Here’s who has the most to be excited about (or nervous about) heading into championship weekend.
Stock Up
Amherst’s Bullpen
Needing to take 2 out of 3 against Middlebury, in Middlebury, the do or die weekend did not start off as Amherst would’ve liked after a 7-0 loss in Game 1. No disrespect to LHP Sam Schneider ‘18, whose 8.2 IP of 3 run pitching in the Game 2 win definitely deserves some credit, but the story of the weekend for Amherst was their bullpen in Game 3. After SP Sam Brown was chased from the game in the 3rd inning, it was just about lights out from there. 4 pitchers out of the pen combined to hurl 6.1 IP and allow just 3 ER, including closer Mike Dow who earned the ever so rare 3 inning save to close out the game and send the Mammoths to the playoffs. While obviously you want to be clicking on all cylinders heading into the postseason, it is great news for Amherst to know that they have the depth of reliable arms in the bullpen that they do, especially in a tournament format as hectic as double-elimination. Ferrero and Schneider are a great duo to have for sure, but to know what your contingency plan is should give Amherst fans great confidence for Friday.
The Pitcher of the Year Race
If you didn’t see Spencer’s more detailed article you can catch it here (https://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=6140), but this one is really shaping up to be a complete toss-up. I would agree with both of his picks in each division, but you’re going to have to read the article to find out who we like. Anyways, this year’s Cy Young race really comes down to team success vs. individual success. How strong is RHP Colby Morris’ case against that of Kelvin Sosa, where Morris (1.68) has an ERA almost a run better than Kelvin Sosa (2.54), leads the league in IP (64.1), and is among a host of guys tied for the league lead in wins at 5. Morris also holds a staggeringly low 0.93 ERA in conference play, which is obviously another factor to take into consideration. But do you give it to a guy whose team didn’t make the playoffs? We all know the NESCAC is notoriously favorable towards individuals on successful teams, so will we see that again? And with the pitchers from the East, is it just a battle between the three-headed monster in Somerville of RJ Hall, Brent Greeley, and NESCAC ERA leader (1.66), Spencer Langdon? Hall has a higher ERA than the rest of the candidates (2.81), but has been the ace of the league leading Jumbo team. Greeley and Langdon boast awesome ERAs, both below 2.5, but have trouble getting swings and misses with only 15 and 24, respectively, so can they compare to Morris’ 53 and Sosa’s 49? Obviously, in the official NESCAC awards only select one pitcher of the year, but they have five candidates to choose from. Clearly you get the point, there are a lot of different things to judge in a year where no 1 or 2 pitchers have really dominated across the board all year like we have seen in years past.
Stock Down
Bates’ Upset Chances
I don’t know what the pulse is like in the clubhouse in Lewiston, but it can’t feel great heading into the NESCAC tournament as the clear underdogs having lost 5 of their last 6. Any momentum from their incredible sweep of Trinity has clearly not materialized, and they’re going to need to hit the refresh button before this weekend and hope to find it, otherwise it’s going to be a short trip to Hartford. They very nearly lucked out and drew Wesleyan instead of Amherst (yes I think Amherst is the better team), but instead they get the Mammoths on Friday, a team that is no stranger to the second week of May.
NESCAC At-Large Bids
Putting this in this week’s Stock Report is kind of a cop out and more of a reflection of the fact that there obviously is not much going on around the league now that 4 teams are left playing, but I think we can safely say that whoever comes out on top this weekend at Trinity will be the lone team representing the NESCAC in the NCAA Tournament this year. There has not been a NESCAC team even receiving votes in the d3baseball.com poll since Tufts slid out in the first week of the season. Obviously there are a lot of factors that go into this, such as the depth in the conference that forces the league to beat up on each other, and teams not prioritizing mid-week non-conference games (rightfully) over their divisional series at the weekend, to name the two biggest. Regardless, it would be great to see more NESCAC teams make noise at the national level, but that won’t be happening this year.