Middlebury College Panthers
2017-2018 Record: 21-7 (7-3 NESCAC), Lost in NESCAC Quarterfinals, Lost in NCAA Sweet 16
2018-2019 Projected Record: 18-6 Regular Season (7-3 NESCAC), Lose in NESCAC Semifinals, Lose in NCAA Sweet 16
Key Losses:
G Matt Daly ’18 (15.8 PPG, 8.4 REB/G, 8.5 AST/G)
Anybody who knows Middlebury basketball knows how important Jack Daly was the to program. When he wasn’t making highlight reel passes to Matt St. Amour or making off and-1 layups look easy, he was leading this team on the court and running the floor even when he didn’t have the ball. He was a classic DIII player—he made the shots he needed to, had great ball handling skills and fundamentals, but didn’t do anything that jumped off the page other than dish out dimes. He didn’t shoot well from the perimeter, shooting just 23.5% from deep, and those replacing him, namely Joey Leighton, should see a big jump in production.
F/C Nick Tarentino ’18 (7.2 PPG, 6.8 REB/G)
Tarentino was one of three big men that occupied the ‘5’ spot on the court for Middlebury. The Panthers retain just one of those three, Eric McCord, who should see a big increase in minutes per game. These three big men also split time relatively evenly, but Tarentino started each game. His production was quieter than McCords at times, but he added great defensive help and second chance baskets around the rim.
F Adisa Majors ’18 (7.6 PPG, 5.0 REB/G)
Majors was the third part of the group of big men and was the best shooter of the group. He shot well from around the elbows and was ice cold on the court. He was never phased by pressure and was a key veteran presence that will be missed with this young Panther team.
Projected Starting Lineup:
G: Jack Farrell ‘21 (8.3 PPG, 3.0 REB/G, 1.6 AST/G, 36.4% 3-PT)
In his first year, Farrell took over a big role, replacing Jake Brown ’17. He performed well though and if you didn’t know, you wouldn’t have guessed he was a freshman. He plays a clean game and handles the ball well and should see a huge jump in assists this season after the departure of Daly ’18. He will bring the ball up court for the Panthers this season and should shoot in a similar way that Daly did, mostly scrapping to get to the rim and dishing it out to the better outside shooters—although he is more capable from deep than Daly was.
G: Griffin Kornaker ‘21 (3.3 PPG, 1.0 REB/G, 1.7 A/G, 43.4% FG)
This role will be split between Joey Leighton ’20 and Kornaker, although I see Kornaker starting most games due to his defensive ability. The two play very different styles of basketball and Kornaker isn’t much of a shooter. He, like Farrell should pass it out often on offense but is quick and competent from mid-range. I would imagine he and Farrell will lead the team in assists by a wide margin.
G: Hilal Dahleh ‘19 (7.9 PPG, 2.3 REB/G, 1.3 A/G, 42.6% 3-PT)
Daleh, a senior captain, is due for a breakout year. He was injured throughout his entire sophomore season and came back strong last year as a starter and put up solid numbers. Now, as a senior, after a healthy season behind him, he should be one of the elite shooters in the league from both mid-range and from beyond the arc. He is a smaller ‘3’ player at only 6’3” but moves well laterally and should be able to keep up on defense without issue. His 3-point efficiency was elite last year at over 40% and could only improve with more time on the court this season.
F: Matt Folger ’20 (13.7 PPG, 6.9 REB/G, 32.9% 3-PT)
Folger is the most important player on this Middlebury team. This is very much a win-by-committee roster that the Panthers have this season in that many players will shoot, pass, and rebound, not just the starting five like in the past few years. Folger, however, is their X-Factor. He is the most athletic player on the court, can jump well, dominate the rim, offensively and defensively, and can shoot on top of that. He could easily average over 18 PPG and push for a double-double in each contest. Fear him, NESCAC opponents.
C: Eric McCord ’19 (8.5 PPG PPG, 6.8 REB/G, 18.7 MIN/G)
McCord, like Daleh, should see a big uptick in his nightly averages this season. McCord has always performed well when on the court, threatening for a double-double in games where he plays far less than 20 minutes. One of the major keys for him this season is durability and discipline, as he will need to be on the floor more than in years past and often finds himself in injury and foul trouble. He is extremely physical on the court and could really dominate some of the other NESCAC big men with his 6’7” 250 lb frame.
Everything Else
Middlebury has a new era of guards who are going to start making their mark on the program in 2019. This is the first time since the 2014-2015 season that one of the big three (Matt St. Amour, Jake Brown, and Jack Daly) won’t be on the floor, and the Panthers have a lot of ground to make up here. Luckily for them they have an already experienced crop of sophomores in Jack Farrell, Griffin Kornaker, and Max Bosco who are all fully capable of running the floor. Those three, however, are not as good of shooters as some of the other guards in the league, and as a result, the Panthers are going to lean heavily on Joey Leighton for their sharp-shooting needs. Leighton was often brought in off the bench late in close games to drain threes and already started off hot, going 5-9 from deep in Midd’s opener against Vermont Tech. I’d guess that his efficiency from beyond the arc will spike to above 40% this year as he gets more consistent minutes in his junior season.
Losing both Tarentino and Majors will really hurt the Panthers, not as much because of their playing ability which McCord could easily replace, but because of the depth and experience that each offered. McCord can’t handle the big man spot all by himself and will need a combination of youngsters to step up to cover the minutes when he is not on the court. Alex Sobel ’22 and Ryan Cahill ’21 look like the likely candidates to occupy the missing minutes as McCord probably won’t exceed 25 minutes on the court in any given night. McCord has exceeded 25 minutes on the court in just seven games in his 82 game career, reaching 30 minutes just once. His average over the past two seasons is just under 19 minutes per game, leaving a likely average of about 12-16 minutes per game this year that Cahill and Sobel will have to cover. Sobel and Cahill are both listed at 6’7” 210 lbs which suggests that they lack the physicality of McCord, fitting the mold of a player more like Tarentino ’18. Cahill played in just 11 games as a freshman and didn’t exactly shoot efficiently (18.8% FG). In order for Midd to compete for all 40 minutes in their difficult games, these two young big men will need to step up and improve around the rim and haul in boards while McCord isn’t on the floor.
Despite the graduation of Daly, Middlebury should still do what they always do—win basketball games. Coach Jeff Brown knows the NESCAC as well as any coach and he knows how to bring his team to the NCAA promise land, and this year should be no different for the #17 ranked Panthers according to D3 Hoops. It might take the Panthers a little while to find their groove, but they have enough veteran leadership and spark from deep into their bench that they should outlast most NESCAC opponents. Other than Folger, they don’t quite have the star power that they usually do, but expect them to have good fundamentals on the court and make few mistakes. They should have better outside shooting that last season and should play defense just as well. If they young guards can pass anywhere near as well as Daly, they’ll be tough to defend as they have shooters in each different part of the floor on offense. I don’t think they’ll have such an easy time in NESCAC regular season play as they have the past two seasons (15-5 from 2017-2018), but they could easily make a long run in the playoffs.