The NESCAC season is incredibly short compared to most other conferences, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any lulls. This weekend offers what looks like one of the sleepier slates on the NESCAC schedule barring a huge upset somewhere. Compounding those potentially lopsided matchups are that many NESCAC schools are on fall break meaning student crowds (already usually pretty small) will be practically non-existent.
That does not mean there won’t be plenty to watch later today. Everything starts at noon with Hamilton looking for their first win against a Bowdoin team trying to get to .500, and it will end with the Route 7 battle between Middlebury and Williams. We’ll be giving live updates and analysis on every game on Twitter (@cacsportsblog).
Two to Watch
1. Running Back Kyle Gibson ’15 (Wesleyan) – Gibson was the secondary part of the two headed running attack last year, and the injury of LaDarius Drew ’15 means Gibson has become the primary back. So far his yards per run average is down 2.7 yards from 2013 in large part because Gibson has not been able to have any runs over 30 yards. Sure he is still third in the NESCAC in rushing, but that is nowhere near the level that Wesleyan needs from him. That surprisingly anemic running attack is the biggest difference between this year’s Cardinals team and the 2013 version. Bates has been the second best team against the run so far this year, and a breakout game from Gibson would be huge for the Cardinals confidence going forward.
2. Quarterback Chase Rosenberg ’17 (Hamilton) – The sophomore QB looked like he might be primed for a huge year after throwing for 320 yards in the season opener against Tufts, but he has taken a step back since then against Wesleyan and Trinity. His past two games he has completed fewer than 50% of his passes, but he could have a bounce back game today. On the season opposing quarterbacks are averaging 240 yards per game and are completing 70.2% of their passes against the Bowdoin defense. Last year Rosenberg had one of his best games against Bowdoin throwing for 269 yards. A performance similar to that would end the losing streak for Hamilton.
The Picks
Game of the Week – Middlebury (1-2) at Williams (1-2)
Any time the Game of the Week features two teams under .500, that tells you everything you need to know about what type of week it is. That isn’t to say that this game does not offer any intrigue. Middlebury won this matchup by a touchdown last year despite Williams holding the ball for 35+ minutes.
The Ephs will need that type of performance if they are somehow able to upset Middlebury. Williams has not looked at all like the same team since Week 1. Granted Bowdoin did not give much in the way of resistance in that game, but Williams still appeared to be a complete football team then. Now Williams needs to turn things around in a hurry if they want to keep another season from spiralling downwards.
Middlebury is simply hoping that the shutout their offense had last week was a product of a great defense and tough throwing weather. The Panthers are still only the eighth best rushing team in the NESCAC but they have shown much more commitment to the ground game. Williams can be attacked on the ground so the time of possession should be much closer this year.
In the end Middlebury is simply a better team. They know they are much better than their record indicates and will use this game to start a second half upswing.
Prediction: Middlebury 28 over Williams 13
Bowdoin (1-2) at Hamilton (0-3)- The Bowdoin running game exploded last week against Tufts, and Hamilton is tied with the Jumbos for seventh in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Don’t expect Tyler Grant to repeat his performance from Week 3, but the Polar Bears should still have success on the ground.
On the other hand, Bowdoin’s defense has allowed the most yards per game and is tied for ninth with the Continentals in points allowed per game. So both offenses will have a chance to break out this week (or keep rolling in the Polar Bears’ case).
Prediction: Hamilton 24 over Bowdoin 17.
Wesleyan (3-0) at Bates (1-2)- As mentioned above, the Wesleyan ground game hasn’t been nearly as prolific as in 2013. Given that and the Bobcats success in defending the run, Jesse Warren might be called upon to move the ball against Bates. Regardless, Wesleyan has more talent than Bates and shouldn’t struggle in this game.
Prediction: Wesleyan 35 over Bates 10
Colby (0-3) at Amherst (3-0)- The brutal opening schedule for Colby concludes with this game at Amherst. The Colby offense has only scored seven points in every game, and facing off against the Jeffs’ defense is not going to make this week earlier. For Amherst fans, the QB position is up in the air right now. Poor quarterback play cost the Jeffs their only loss in 2013, and they are hoping EJ Mills can settle on one player instead of going back and forth.
Prediction: Amherst 20 over Colby 7
Tufts (2-1) at Trinity (3-0)- The Jumbo stampede hit a bit of a road block once they had to go on the road to Bowdoin, and things get tougher in Hartford this week. After seeing the Jumbos in person, we can say that we have never seen a team run as many screens as Tufts does. Our guess is that at least half of QB Jack Doll’s ’15 passes were behind the line of scrimmage. Trinity should come out hungry in this one as they always seem to do at home. The streak will end sometime, but it won’t be Saturday.
Prediction: Trinity 34 over Tufts 14