Think of the NESCAC football season like one large double elimination bracket. Realistically, if you want to win the league, you can only have 1 loss, and even that is pushing it. You almost certainly cannot have 2 losses and expect to find yourselves tied for first with the tiebreakers falling in your favor. I say all this to mention that this game is as close to an elimination game in a 9-game season as it gets, for Week 3 standards. Trinity stumbled out of the gate with a Week 1 loss to Tufts and sits at 1-1. If they lose again, before they play Wesleyan, Amherst, or Williams, they are almost certainly done. Middlebury, courtesy of a big Week 1 win against Williams, is 2-0, but cannot afford a loss this early in the season if it has any hopes of hoisting a trophy. This is a de factor elimination game.
Key #1 for Middlebury: Don’t Beat Yourself
Lost in the shuffle of Middlebury’s seemingly improved offense, on the backs of much improved QB Will Jernigan ’21, is the fact that the Panthers have developed an early habit of coughing up the rock. They have fumbled the ball 6 times and been fortunate enough to have only lost 3 of them, while Jernigan has also thrown 2 interceptions. It is going to be a long day for Midd if they can’t hang on to the ball—it is tough enough to score against Trinity as it is.
Key #2 for Middlebury: Get Ahead, Stay Ahead
You could call this any number of things, but in essence, Middlebury doesn’t have the firepower to hang in a shootout with Trinity as they are presently constructed. Jared Lebowitz ’17 isn’t walking through that door. This means they have to establish the run game, pick up easy first downs, and grind out longer drives. If they go down 14-0 or something like that early, forget about it. If the defense is put in a position where it can play the style of defense it wants to play, they can keep Trinity in front of them. If they have to get overly aggressive and play out of their comfort zone because they’re trailing, well I can think of three guys in Hartford who will be looking forward to the thought of that.
Key #1 for Trinity: Establish the Run
I know this is a weird pick for what appears to be one of the most talented passing attacks in league history, but hear me out. You can’t rely on the home run to bail you out every possession. For those who don’t remember, in Trinity’s only loss last season at Williams, Williams did a great stop of stuffing the box and committing to stopping RB Max Chipouras ’19 on 1st and 2nd downs, forcing then starting QB Jordan Vazzano ’21 into exclusively throwing deep balls to Girard and Schofer, which are a lot easier to defend when you know they’re coming. We still don’t know what version of Spencer Lockwood ’22 we’re going to get this season, 37 yards on 16 carries against Tufts, but 72 yards on 14 carries and.2 scores against Bowdoin, a much less tough defense. If they can string together first downs on the ground, the points will flow.
Key #2: Disruption on Defense
Just as Middlebury needs to take care of the ball and play smart football, Trinity’s defense needs to ensure that the exact opposite occurs. Jernigan is at his best when he has a full plethora of options at his disposal, when he is in situations that could either be run plays or pass plays. Forcing him into obvious passing downs like 2nd and 3rd and long will be huge for Trinity, as will forcing turnovers and getting to him in the pocket. The Bantams have a whopping 22 tackles for loss as a team through 2 games, led by DL Jimmy Christiano ’21 with 4. If they can continue their pace of 11 a game, it’ll be a long afternoon for Jernigan.
Everything Else:
What’s so exciting about this time of year, and also what makes it really hard to make predictions, is that all of the teams are so far from being finished products. They have all the ingredients in the kitchen, but they don’t know what they’re going to cook. Both Middlebury and Trinity have impressed through two weeks, but they have also raised a lot of questions about themselves. A lot of those questions will be answered tomorrow, but ultimately, I just like Trinity’s ingredients at this time of year more than I like Middlebury’s. The Panthers struggled to keep Frank Stola ’21 in front of them when Williams came to town, to the tune of 6 catches for 151 yards and 2 scores, even though everyone knew the ball was going to him. Trinity has three Frank Stola types, and you don’t know which one is getting the ball. I think Trinity continues to get back on track and look like the team we all expected them to be.
Prediction: Trinity 31-17