Tag: Andrew Yin

Power Rankings Part 3- The West Playoff Teams

We wrap up the Power Ranks with the two West playoff teams. Same format as the East, and the numbers coincide to their overall ranking this week. We will have our predictions for the weekend up tomorrow morning so make sure to check back in.

3. Amherst (28-7, 9-3)

Why They’ll Win: Amherst might be the only team who could give Tufts a running in the “most sheer talent” category. Their lineup is filled with dangerous hitters, most notably ace leadoff hitter and shortstop Taiki Kasuga ‘14, who comes into the playoffs batting .366, and Mike Odenwaelder ‘16, the Miguel Cabrera of this NESCAC season. Odenwaelder comes into the playoffs at least in the top three of every major offensive category known to man, and leading in batting average and slugging percentage, at .417 and .658 respectively. As if that wasn’t enough, Odenwaelder also sports a 1.74 ERA out of the bullpen. When you combine these offensive threats with the three-headed beast in the rotation of Dylan Driscoll ‘14, John Cook ‘15 and Quinn Saunders-Kolburg ‘14, Amherst looks as deep as any team except maybe Tufts.

Why They’ll Lose: The blueprint for beating Amherst was shown two weekends back when Wesleyan took two out of three from the Jeffs. In that series, Wesleyan was able to get to Driscoll early in game one, making the other matchups more even. Each game in the series was close, decided by 2 runs or less, and Wesleyan’s propensity for clutch hitting helped them in the first two games, one of which went 9 innings. The final game of the series was a classic, going 11 innings, with Odenwaelder hitting a two run homer to end it. If teams follow this formula, and scrape out a win against Driscoll, than either of the other matchups in the double-elimination weekend could come out against Amherst’s favor. By the way, Driscoll has been another pitcher in NESCAC play, with a below average 4.10 ERA.

Sleeper-Catcher Connor Gunn ‘16: As his last name implies, Gunn is a superb defensive catcher, who certainly deserves some credit for the success of Amherst’s pitching this season. While his overall offensive statistics are not eye-popping, he has shifted into another gear in NESCAC play, batting at .349 with a .899 OPS. This success has firmly planted him in the fifth spot in the lineup, behind season-long sluggers Odenwaelder and outfielder Alex Hero ’14. This middle of the order probably constitutes the best in NESCAC, and if Gunn can continue to constitute the back end of that threat, Amherst is probably pretty well set to repeat their tournament success from last year.

2. Wesleyan (24-10, 10-2)

Why They’ll Win: Wesleyan’s confidence is at an all-time high right now after posting a league best 10-2 record in NESCAC play, including taking two out of three from Amherst on the weekend of April 25. While Wesleyan certainly has the all around balance of any great NESCAC team, it’s their offense that carries them. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ‘15 has been solid all season, but in league play he has been unbelievable, batting .422 with a ridiculous .711 slugging percentage. Jonathon Dennett ‘15 and Guy Davidson ‘15, both of whom also rank in the top ten in NESCAC for RBI, flank him in the lineup. When you pair these sluggers with table setters like Andrew Yin ’15 and Donnie Cimino ’15, it makes for a potent lineup that any pitching staff would struggle to contain.

Why They’ll Lose: Wesleyan certainly has chinks in their armor that could cost them in this weekend. Although their pitching has stepped up to the plate (pardon the pun) in NESCAC play, posting a 2.10 ERA, for the season they come in with a mediocre 3.72, pointing to early inconsistencies in the rotation. Their main starting pitchers, Nick Cooney ‘15, Jeff Blout ’14 and Gavin Pittore ‘16, have all been solid, but can struggle with their control at times, leading to extra base runners. And against a well-oiled machine like Amherst or Tufts this weekend, mistakes like that are not often forgiven.

Sleeper- Relief pitcher Peter Rantz ‘16: If Wesleyan does have shaky performances from any of those three key starters, Rantz will be crucial in righting the ship, and giving the offense a chance to slug their way back into the game. Rantz was putting together a nice year out of the pen, with a 3.06 ERA, but has struggled mightily in NESCAC play. At his best, he is a guy who can relieve a struggling starter in the third inning and keep them in the game. It is likely this weekend Wesleyan will need to have that option.

Power Rankings May 1

Going to keep the Power Rankings a little bit shorter this week before doing a big blowout one next time. It will be special I promise. In the mean time feast your eyes on these rankings and consider them a bit of a sampler before the main course next week.

1. Tufts (27-4, 8-2)- At first I was going to put Wesleyan here before looking at the team wide stats. Tufts’ pitching has separated themselves just a little bit from the other pitching staffs down the stretch, and its 2.58 ERA is .75 runs better than Bowdoin’s second place mark. Tufts has a great video of the Tufts staff discussing what has made them so successful. The offense is not quite as dominant, but has still scored 21 more runs than anybody else in the NESCAC. The secret to their success has been their patience. They rank as a team only fourth in the NESCAC in batting average, but their .396 OBP is the best in the league. Also, a .396 OBP is absurdly high for a full season.

2. Wesleyan (23-8, 10-2)- Did someone on Wesleyan read the Power Rankings last week? No way they printed it out and circled the fact that I put them third right? There isn’t a lot of stuff out there that could be used as bulletin board material in the NESCAC, so let me just have my moment and imagine that they used my writing as inspiration for their series win over Amherst. Like I said above, I almost put them number one, but think that Tufts’ body of work is too deserving not to put them first. One player we haven’t given enough credit to this season has been second baseman Andrew Yin ’15. He has gotten on-base more than any other player in the NESCAC.

3. Amherst (23-7, 9-3)- Yes, it was a disappointing weekend for Amherst, but my impression of them hasn’t changed very much. Drawing Tufts for the first game of the double elimination tournament is tough, but Bowdoin showed last week that Tufts’ Kyle Slinger ’15 is beatable. They have a bevy of pitchers to throw at teams this weekend. They won the tournament last year as the number two West seed without losing a game so they have been in this situation before.

4. Bates (18-14, 6-4)- Their remaining two games against Tufts are much more important in terms of confidence for the Bobcats than the Jumbos. Bates lost the first game of conference season to Tufts when Slinger threw a gem against them, but they were in the game the whole time. Both managers will have to balance keeping their players in rhythm and not giving away too much in case of a potential rematch in two weekends. While Bates is a distant fourth behind the big three, Brad Reynolds ’14 will give them a great chance to win at least one game, and after that the team has been playing well enough to make a run.

5. Williams (10-15, 6-5)- The overall record is not very good in large part because of the depth of Williams pitching, but this was still the best team not to make the playoffs. They were doomed by going 1-5 against the tandem of Amherst and Wesleyan, and it would have been interesting to see how they would have done in the East given how up for grabs the second spot was. Their hitting didn’t perform quite as well in conference play, but some drop off was to be expected.

6. Colby (15-13, 5-7)- Colby gains this spot by virtue of beating Bowdoin in their head to head matchup. No team took a bigger step forward than Colby this season in big part because they had great improvement by returning players. Back in March they looked to be at best a spoiler with enough talent to steal a game from anybody, but their 4-2 conference start was for real. They return a lot of players next season as well. Their offense will need to get contributions for players up and down the lineup, but they aren’t far away.

7. Bowdoin (17-14-1, 5-7)- This is a disappointing finish for Bowdoin given their preseason expectation, but in the end their weaknesses just couldn’t be overcome. Still a lot of positives to take away with the biggest one being all the players who stepped up in bigger than expected roles. All of those players will be back next season in what is sure to be a team hungry to get back to the playoffs in a crowded East.

8. Trinity (15-16, 4-8)-  2014 was a terrible season by Trinity’s high standards, but their series against Tufts showed that there are still plenty of players in Hartford. It felt like Trinity lost more close games than anyone else. Everyone in the lineup will be back as well. It is way too early to make any predictions about the East next year, but it will be just as unpredictable next season. Don’t be shocked if the Bantams bring in a couple of hard throwing freshman to strengthen the rotation.

9. Hamilton (9-14, 2-9)- To be honest, Hamilton really hasn’t done much to hold onto this spot in recent weeks because their offense has completely collapsed. Their pitching staff has kept them in games, but there just isn’t enough hitting. The improvement of twins Chris and Kenny Collins ’17 does represent a ray of hope that next season the Continentals will be a more complete team capable of cashing in on the early promise they showed on their Florida trip.

10. Middlebury (4-21, 2-10)- The Panthers seemed to building a little momentum a few weeks ago after they beat Hamilton twice and played Amherst very tight for a couple games, but that enthusiasm has disappeared in the middle of a nine game losing streak. Their remaining four games are two doubleheaders against Tufts and Bowdoin so those will be difficult games as well. If they win some of them then they recapture some of those good vibes heading into the summer.

The Weekend Preview April 25

The Overview:

This weekend is shaping up to be the best kind of weekend New England can offer. There’s some beautiful spring weather on the horizon, I might not have a massive paper to write, and of course, there’s a full slate of NESCAC baseball games to enjoy. Every NESCAC team is in action this weekend, and every in-conference series has implications for playoff seeding. So, without further ado, let’s dig into these match-ups.

The Marquee Matchup: Wesleyan at Amherst

There is a clear series that stands out as the pivotal battle of the weekend, and that would be Amherst versus Wesleyan. The Jeffs and the Cardinals have been locked in a season-long battle for supremacy in the West, and they come into this series tied at 8-1 in the league, with Amherst holding a better record overall by one game (22-5 vs. 21-6). The winner of this series is assured of a number one seed from the West, and has a very good shot of reaching the NESCAC final.

Wesleyan can attribute much of their success to a wonderfully efficient offense, which has posted a league leading batting average (.321) and one base percentage (.416). Their pitching staff has come into its own during NESCAC play, posting a 1.70 ERA since league play began, making this team truly complete. The offense is spearheaded by freshman phenom Robby Harbison ’17 (league leader in hitting at .427), and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15, who paces the NESCAC with 29 RBI. The table is set for the solid hitters up and down the lineup by Andrew Yin ’14 and Donnie Cimino ’15, who get on base at .476 and .443 clips, and lead the league in runs with 31 and 32, respectively. The pitching staff is led by flame-throwing ace Nick Cooney ’15, who comes in at 5-1 and leads the league in strikeouts with 50 in 46 innings. Gavin Pittore ’16 and Jeff Blount ’14 round out the weekend starters.

Amherst comes in with an equally dangerous lineup. They are led by MVP-candidate Mike Odenwaelder ’16, who’s hitting .419 with a 1.057 OPS. He is flanked by shortstop Taiki Kasuga ’14, who’s hitting .392, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14, who’s hitting .337 and is second in the league in steals. Like Wesleyan, Amherst’s table-setters, Kasuga and second baseman Andrew Vandini ’16 (.427 OBP) do a fantastic job getting on base in front of the sluggers in the middle of the order, making for a potent lineup. In the rotation, Dylan Driscoll ’16 continues to set the standard for NESCAC pitchers this season, with a 1.26 ERA and 6 wins. Fellow starter Jeff Cook ’15 has been great this season with 43 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 35 innings and earned NESCAC Pitcher of the Week honors last week. The big question for Amherst is whether SP Fred Shephard ’14, who tossed a no-hitter earlier this season, will be able to go. Shephard missed last week’s start against Middlebury with elbow pain. Keenan Szulik ’16 started in Shephard’s place against Middlebury and did an admirable job, but Wesleyan’s hitters should be licking their chops if they get a chance to face Szulik instead of Shephard.

Despite the offensive firepower that both teams possess, this series will be determined by the pitching. The two southpaws, Cook and Cooney, will likely meet up this afternoon. Driscoll and Blout are usually the seven-inning game starters for both squads, so look for them to pitch game one on Saturday, while the series finale should pit Pittore against Shephard or his replacement.

The race for best pitcher in the West:

While the East’s pitching is indisputably deeper than that in the West, Amherst and Wesleyan’s starting rotations can match up with anyone. That will be on display this weekend in Amherst, as Cooney, Driscoll and Cook battle for the ERA crown. All three pitchers have excellent stuff, and can strike out anyone in a big spot. The one wart on Cooney’s resume is his control issues (3.39 BB/9), which can sometimes get him into trouble. Driscoll very rarely hurts himself (5.57 K/BB), and that is the main explanation for his miniscule 1.26 ERA. However, Cook might have the best stuff of the group. He matches Cooney’s velocity with Driscoll’s accuracy. Cook has 43 K’s in 35 innings and just three walks (14.33 K/BB). He gets hit only because he is consistently in the strike zone. Right now, Driscoll leads the way in ERA, but Cooney (2.70) and Cook (2.83) are not far behind.

Around the League:

Bates, Bowdoin and Colby are all pretty close in the race for the second seed in the East, so this weekend will decide the race. Barring a major upset this weekend when Tufts travels to Brunswick to play Bowdoin, the winner of the Colby at Bates series will make the playoffs as the second seed in the East. Bates currently sits at 4-3, and has two games remaining with the Jumbos after this weekend. Colby and Bowdoin, meanwhile, are 4-5. With just two wins, Bates will secure their playoff spot because they hold the tiebreaker over Bowdoin (unless Bowdoin can sweep Tufts).

The series between Hamilton and Williams has no implications for the postseason, but the two squads are fighting for the third seed in the West.

Trinity and Middlebury have no more playoff hopes going into this East vs. West matchup, but pride is still a motivating factor in these games, which is part of what makes sports so great. Both teams have been disappointing to this point, and want to prove that they won’t roll over. I fully expect the games between Middlebury and Trinity to be hard fought, competitive and fun to watch, just like those between Amherst and Wesleyan.

Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule:
Tufts at Bowdoin 3 PM
Colby at Bates 3 PM
Wesleyan at Amherst 3 PM

Enjoy the final weekend of a full NESCAC slate.

 

Looking Back, Glancing Forward: West Division

Spring trips are in full swing for most NESCAC baseball teams so now is a good time to get caught up on the entire goings on around the conference as well as looking ahead a little bit.

Amherst: The Lord Jeffs encountered a (understandable) case of wrong identity as the Oswego State Baseball Twitter account celebrated a win over “UMass Amherst.”

The loss was Amherst’s first this year. The normally effective Amherst offense could only manage eight hits including three by shortstop Taiki Kasuga ’14. John Cook ’15 looked very effective for the Jeffs firing seven innings and recording 13 strikouts with only two earned runs. The loss came one day after Tyler Jacobs ’15 hit a three run homer in the top of the tenth as Amherst won in extras over Rutgers-Camden. Amherst has a bunch of games left in Florida; the biggest of which is Saturday against Southern Maine, ranked #3 in the nation. We’ve yet to see the much-anticipated debut of Mike Odenwaelder on the mound, and the second-year player has struggled out of the gate at the dish, hitting .182 but with a home run among his two hits.

Hamilton: Last Saturday, Continentals outfielder Joe Jensen ’15 was at the D3 National Indoor Track Championships. We want to say congrats to Joe on finishing second in the nation for the 400-meter dash. To top it off, on Monday Jensen led off for Hamilton in their first game, reached his first at-bat via walk, and promptly stole second. Last year Jensen had 29 stolen bases, tops in the league and 11 more than the runner-up. Hamilton’s win against Bowdoin Monday doesn’t count towards the conference standings, but is a big confidence boost especially since it was Hamilton’s first game while Bowdoin had already played seven.

Middlebury: The Panthers don’t start their season until Saturday, but as Peter Lindholm reports, Middlebury has already suffered two huge losses this year. Pair of Two-Sport Stars Hang Up Their Spikes

Wesleyan: As expected, the Wesleyan offense has been potent, but the Cardinals are only 5-4 because they are allowing way too many runs. Already Cardinal opponents have had games of eight, nine, 12 and 13 runs. Donnie Cimino ’15 has been a beast posting an on-base percentage of .524 along with five stolen bases and other guys like Andrew Yin ’15 and Ellis Schaefer ’17 haven’t been shabby with the bat either. Jeff Blout ’14 has been a disaster on the mound with a 10.80 ERA after two starts, and the only bright spot in the rotation has been Peter Rantz ’16 who has a 1.04 ERA in 17.1 innings pitched. Wesleyan has four more games in Arizona to get their rotation figure out.

Williams: The Ephs will be the last team to get underway in the NESCAC with their first game this Sunday, March 23 in Arizona at 2 PM.