Tag: Alex Hero

The Biggest Stories of the Year: 2014 in Review

Doing an article about the year that just happened around New Years is a long-time tradition that often results in news sources practically plagiarizing each other. But the fact of the matter is that nobody else is going to review the biggest stories in the NESCAC if we don’t. So we thought the idea actually was not that bad after all. 2014 was really chock-full of good stories. Besides the obvious choice of the inception of this site as the biggest story in the NESCAC this season, a few other moments jump out. Here is our look back at some of 2014’s highlights

Duncan Robinson and Matt Hart Transfer

Duncan Robinson (Courtesy of Detroit Free Press)
Duncan Robinson (Courtesy of Detroit Free Press)
Matt Hart (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)
Matt Hart (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)

Transfers into the NESCAC are not unusual (e.g. McCallum Foote), but not very often do we see players voluntarily transfer from the league. In June, Hart, a first team All-NESCAC performer in 2013-2014 as a sophomore, took a preferred walk-on spot at George Washington. Then, in July, Duncan Robinson, the 2013-2014 NESCAC ROY, made the unprecedented move of going from the NESCAC to the Big Ten by accepting a full scholarship to Michigan. By NCAA rules transfers to Division 1 have to sit out a year before they are eligible to play so we won’t hear much from this duo until next winter. Both are practicing and taking classes this year, and they are making an impression already. The departure of both of them also helped create the wide open landscape in NESCAC basketball heading into conference play in 2015.

Mike Maker Gets a D1 Coaching Job

Mike Maker (Courtesy of NYC Buckets)
Mike Maker (Courtesy of NYC Buckets)

Former Williams head coach Mike Maker was a longtime Division 1 assistant before taking the head job in Williamstown, and he returned to the D1 ranks by taking a job in June at Marist. While at Williams, Maker did practically everything besides win a National Title. His up-tempo offensive oriented style of play was the prettiest in the NESCAC and resulted in the Amherst-Williams rivalry climbing to another stratosphere of watch-ability. Williams recognized Maker’s positive influence on the program and wisely hired one of his former assistant’s at Williams, Kevin App, as his successor. Maker faces a major task leading a Division 1 program, but his track record at Williams suggests he will be able to get the job done. The Red Foxes are off to a slow start, however, going 1-11 before the New Year.

Aaron Toomey, Joey Kizel, and Michael Mayer all Wrap up Fantastic Careers

Aaron Toomey (Courtesy of News & Record)
Aaron Toomey (Courtesy of News & Record)
Joey Kizel (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Joey Kizel (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Michael Mayer (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Michael Mayer (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 2014 basketball class was one of the finest in the NESCAC’s history. Impact players dotted the roster of almost every team, but the trio of Toomey, Kizel and Mayer was a transcendent group that shaped the story lines of the NESCAC for four years. Kizel’s final season was one with many what-ifs as Middlebury lost many close games and did not make the NCAA tournament despite Kizel’s 16.6 points and 5.6 assists per game. Mayer shook off a slow start because of injury to be Williams go-to offensive threat during their NCAA run. And Toomey finished his career as one of the most decorated players in NESCAC history, taking home his second consecutive National Player of the Year award. An entire book could be written detailing the clashes Williams, Amherst and Middlebury had during the careers of these three, but suffice to say that they represented the best in NESCAC basketball. All three are now continuing their careers abroad in Europe.

Wesleyan Continues its Transformation

President Michael Roth (right) introducing coach Mike Whalen (left) in 2010 (Courtesy of Wesleyan University)
President Michael Roth (right) introducing coach Mike Whalen (left) in 2010 (Courtesy of Wesleyan University)

The hiring of head football coach Mike Whalen away from Williams in 2010 signaled a clear change of priorities under President Michael Roth. In Roth’s own words, “Whatever we do at Wesleyan, we should strive to do well.” This mantra led to a re-commitment to the university’s athletics programs, a perspective that was not the usual one for the Connecticut school, a place known for its eccentricities and media members more than anything else. 2014 saw football under Whalen have its second consecutive 7-1 season behind a program-changing senior class. The baseball team also captured its first NESCAC championship ever and advanced to the final of their NCAA tournament regional. The reasons for the move towards an emphasis on team sports at Wesleyan are usually explained as a monetary decision. The results on the field are clear.

The Trinity Streak Ends

Middlebury brought Trinity's streak to a crashing end. Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)
Middlebury brought Trinity’s streak to a crashing end. Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)

For 13 years NESCAC football teams tried and failed to beat Trinity in Hartford, Connecticut. The last time that Trinity had lost at home was just 18 days after 9/11. Finally, and quite suddenly, on a late October afternoon, an underdog Middlebury team handily defeated the Bantams. The loss ended Trinity’s 53-game home winning streak. Around the Trinity program, the slogan was always “No Poop in the Coop.” For years that held up, and the field turf that Trinity installed in 2002 only saw victories until this season. Trinity also lost at home the next week to Amherst meaning they will now go into next season with a different type of streak at home. The Bantams hope this one will end quickly.

Amherst Cements a Dynasty

Courtesy of Amherst Athletics
Courtesy of Amherst Athletics

While Trinity stumbled for the second consecutive year, the Jeffs overcame their own offensive limitations and went undefeated to capture another NESCAC championship. It was their third title in four years (fourth in six years) and third undefeated season since 2009. This year’s team was built around a suffocating defense and an offense that came through when it mattered. In a season that many thought would be dominated by the Connecticut duo of Wesleyan and Trinity, Amherst showed its staying power. While Williams stumbled to another 2-6 season, their arch-rival is having success both on the field and off of it with 20 players on the All-Academic team, tied for the most in the league with Williams.

Rest in Peace Bates’ John Durkin and Amherst’s Alex Hero

John Durkin (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
John Durkin (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Alex Hero (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Alex Hero (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tragedy struck not once but twice in the NESCAC this year. Bates football player John Durkin was studying abroad in Rome for his junior spring when he went missing. His body was later found in a subway tunnel after he was struck by a train. Alex Hero, Amherst’s starting centerfielder last spring, died on Thanksgiving day only months after graduating from Amherst. We highly recommend you go read this remembrance written by Amherst head coach Brian Hamm and teammate Dave Cunningham ’16. Our condolences to both communities and may these two rest in peace.

The Case for the ‘Cac: Students-and-Athletes

A few weeks ago, the NESCAC released its list of 2014 Spring All-Academic selections. Not surprising a whole bunch of people made it (999 to be exact), and not just the guys who sit on the end of the bench. While in Division 1 having a star that is also a stellar student is unusual, in the NESCAC it is almost the norm. Of course, this is exactly how it should be, given the ethos and goals of all the NESCAC schools in placing more emphasis on academics than athletics. To show just how outstanding the caliber of talent is that made the All-Academic team, we compiled two “All-Star” teams, if you will, one with the academic qualifications to make the All-Academic squad and the other chosen from everyone else remaining. Freshmen are not eligible because they have not completed a whole academic year so players like Tim Superko ’17 are not included in this exercise.

All-Academic Lineup The Rest Lineup
1. Andrew Yin (Second Base) 1. Donnie Cimino (Center Field)
2. Taiki Kasuga (Shortstop) 2. Aaron Rosen (Second Base)
3. Alex Hero (Center Field) 3. Mike Odenwaelder (Right Field)
4. Chad Martin (Designated Hitter) 4. Jason Buco (Left Field)
5. Kevin Galvin (Third Base) 5. Griff Tewksbury (Designated Hitter)
6. Bryan Wolfe (First Base) 6. Sam Goodwin-Boyd (First Base)
7. Nick Cutsumpas (Catcher) 7. Guy Davidson (Shortstop)
8. Matt Moser (Right Field) 8. Kevin Davis (Third Base)
9. Luke Pierce (Left Field) 9. Mekae Hyde (Catcher)
All-Academic Rotation The Rest Rotation
John Cook Kyle Slinger
Brad Reynolds Nick Cooney
Dylan Driscoll Christian Sbily
Scott Goldberg Gavin Pittore

Both teams are obviously stacked, but have different strengths. The All-Academic team lacks the mashers in the middle of the lineup that The Rest has in Jason Buco ’15 and Mike Odenwaelder ’16. The pitching staff for the All-Academic team is stronger, however. The difference is minimal especially given the presence of Kyle Slinger ’15 on The Rest. Though I don’t go in depth with the pitchers, it should be noted that other very good pitchers like Tom Ryan ’15 made the All-Academic team as well. Another roster note is that Matt Moser ’16 plays shortstop and not right field, but there was a significant logjam in the middle infield and nobody in the outfield for the All-Academic team so I made the executive decision to keep him on the field in that way.

If these two teams were to meet I would have to give a slight edge to The Rest team, but my guess is that if the teams played ten times, the All-Academic team wins four games. Their pitching is good enough and the talent level throughout the lineup is only a smidgeon worse than the Rest. The purpose of this exercise is of course simply to show the amount of talent that made the All-Academic team and not to really compare the teams.

One last note is that many of the athletes who did not make the All-Academic team still work incredibly hard in the classroom. Keep in mind that the difficulty of achieving the requisite 3.35 GPA fluctuates between departments, majors and professors. This isn’t to disparage anyone who did make the All-Academic team because a 3.35 isn’t easy no matter what classes you take. I want to make clear that I’m not putting down The Rest roster for their performance in the classroom. A lot of factors besides a student’s intelligence and work ethic go into what a final GPA looks like. With that being said, a huge congratulations to all of the students for their great work both on the diamond and in the classroom this spring..

Power Rankings Part 3- The West Playoff Teams

We wrap up the Power Ranks with the two West playoff teams. Same format as the East, and the numbers coincide to their overall ranking this week. We will have our predictions for the weekend up tomorrow morning so make sure to check back in.

3. Amherst (28-7, 9-3)

Why They’ll Win: Amherst might be the only team who could give Tufts a running in the “most sheer talent” category. Their lineup is filled with dangerous hitters, most notably ace leadoff hitter and shortstop Taiki Kasuga ‘14, who comes into the playoffs batting .366, and Mike Odenwaelder ‘16, the Miguel Cabrera of this NESCAC season. Odenwaelder comes into the playoffs at least in the top three of every major offensive category known to man, and leading in batting average and slugging percentage, at .417 and .658 respectively. As if that wasn’t enough, Odenwaelder also sports a 1.74 ERA out of the bullpen. When you combine these offensive threats with the three-headed beast in the rotation of Dylan Driscoll ‘14, John Cook ‘15 and Quinn Saunders-Kolburg ‘14, Amherst looks as deep as any team except maybe Tufts.

Why They’ll Lose: The blueprint for beating Amherst was shown two weekends back when Wesleyan took two out of three from the Jeffs. In that series, Wesleyan was able to get to Driscoll early in game one, making the other matchups more even. Each game in the series was close, decided by 2 runs or less, and Wesleyan’s propensity for clutch hitting helped them in the first two games, one of which went 9 innings. The final game of the series was a classic, going 11 innings, with Odenwaelder hitting a two run homer to end it. If teams follow this formula, and scrape out a win against Driscoll, than either of the other matchups in the double-elimination weekend could come out against Amherst’s favor. By the way, Driscoll has been another pitcher in NESCAC play, with a below average 4.10 ERA.

Sleeper-Catcher Connor Gunn ‘16: As his last name implies, Gunn is a superb defensive catcher, who certainly deserves some credit for the success of Amherst’s pitching this season. While his overall offensive statistics are not eye-popping, he has shifted into another gear in NESCAC play, batting at .349 with a .899 OPS. This success has firmly planted him in the fifth spot in the lineup, behind season-long sluggers Odenwaelder and outfielder Alex Hero ’14. This middle of the order probably constitutes the best in NESCAC, and if Gunn can continue to constitute the back end of that threat, Amherst is probably pretty well set to repeat their tournament success from last year.

2. Wesleyan (24-10, 10-2)

Why They’ll Win: Wesleyan’s confidence is at an all-time high right now after posting a league best 10-2 record in NESCAC play, including taking two out of three from Amherst on the weekend of April 25. While Wesleyan certainly has the all around balance of any great NESCAC team, it’s their offense that carries them. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ‘15 has been solid all season, but in league play he has been unbelievable, batting .422 with a ridiculous .711 slugging percentage. Jonathon Dennett ‘15 and Guy Davidson ‘15, both of whom also rank in the top ten in NESCAC for RBI, flank him in the lineup. When you pair these sluggers with table setters like Andrew Yin ’15 and Donnie Cimino ’15, it makes for a potent lineup that any pitching staff would struggle to contain.

Why They’ll Lose: Wesleyan certainly has chinks in their armor that could cost them in this weekend. Although their pitching has stepped up to the plate (pardon the pun) in NESCAC play, posting a 2.10 ERA, for the season they come in with a mediocre 3.72, pointing to early inconsistencies in the rotation. Their main starting pitchers, Nick Cooney ‘15, Jeff Blout ’14 and Gavin Pittore ‘16, have all been solid, but can struggle with their control at times, leading to extra base runners. And against a well-oiled machine like Amherst or Tufts this weekend, mistakes like that are not often forgiven.

Sleeper- Relief pitcher Peter Rantz ‘16: If Wesleyan does have shaky performances from any of those three key starters, Rantz will be crucial in righting the ship, and giving the offense a chance to slug their way back into the game. Rantz was putting together a nice year out of the pen, with a 3.06 ERA, but has struggled mightily in NESCAC play. At his best, he is a guy who can relieve a struggling starter in the third inning and keep them in the game. It is likely this weekend Wesleyan will need to have that option.

The Weekend Preview April 25

The Overview:

This weekend is shaping up to be the best kind of weekend New England can offer. There’s some beautiful spring weather on the horizon, I might not have a massive paper to write, and of course, there’s a full slate of NESCAC baseball games to enjoy. Every NESCAC team is in action this weekend, and every in-conference series has implications for playoff seeding. So, without further ado, let’s dig into these match-ups.

The Marquee Matchup: Wesleyan at Amherst

There is a clear series that stands out as the pivotal battle of the weekend, and that would be Amherst versus Wesleyan. The Jeffs and the Cardinals have been locked in a season-long battle for supremacy in the West, and they come into this series tied at 8-1 in the league, with Amherst holding a better record overall by one game (22-5 vs. 21-6). The winner of this series is assured of a number one seed from the West, and has a very good shot of reaching the NESCAC final.

Wesleyan can attribute much of their success to a wonderfully efficient offense, which has posted a league leading batting average (.321) and one base percentage (.416). Their pitching staff has come into its own during NESCAC play, posting a 1.70 ERA since league play began, making this team truly complete. The offense is spearheaded by freshman phenom Robby Harbison ’17 (league leader in hitting at .427), and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15, who paces the NESCAC with 29 RBI. The table is set for the solid hitters up and down the lineup by Andrew Yin ’14 and Donnie Cimino ’15, who get on base at .476 and .443 clips, and lead the league in runs with 31 and 32, respectively. The pitching staff is led by flame-throwing ace Nick Cooney ’15, who comes in at 5-1 and leads the league in strikeouts with 50 in 46 innings. Gavin Pittore ’16 and Jeff Blount ’14 round out the weekend starters.

Amherst comes in with an equally dangerous lineup. They are led by MVP-candidate Mike Odenwaelder ’16, who’s hitting .419 with a 1.057 OPS. He is flanked by shortstop Taiki Kasuga ’14, who’s hitting .392, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14, who’s hitting .337 and is second in the league in steals. Like Wesleyan, Amherst’s table-setters, Kasuga and second baseman Andrew Vandini ’16 (.427 OBP) do a fantastic job getting on base in front of the sluggers in the middle of the order, making for a potent lineup. In the rotation, Dylan Driscoll ’16 continues to set the standard for NESCAC pitchers this season, with a 1.26 ERA and 6 wins. Fellow starter Jeff Cook ’15 has been great this season with 43 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 35 innings and earned NESCAC Pitcher of the Week honors last week. The big question for Amherst is whether SP Fred Shephard ’14, who tossed a no-hitter earlier this season, will be able to go. Shephard missed last week’s start against Middlebury with elbow pain. Keenan Szulik ’16 started in Shephard’s place against Middlebury and did an admirable job, but Wesleyan’s hitters should be licking their chops if they get a chance to face Szulik instead of Shephard.

Despite the offensive firepower that both teams possess, this series will be determined by the pitching. The two southpaws, Cook and Cooney, will likely meet up this afternoon. Driscoll and Blout are usually the seven-inning game starters for both squads, so look for them to pitch game one on Saturday, while the series finale should pit Pittore against Shephard or his replacement.

The race for best pitcher in the West:

While the East’s pitching is indisputably deeper than that in the West, Amherst and Wesleyan’s starting rotations can match up with anyone. That will be on display this weekend in Amherst, as Cooney, Driscoll and Cook battle for the ERA crown. All three pitchers have excellent stuff, and can strike out anyone in a big spot. The one wart on Cooney’s resume is his control issues (3.39 BB/9), which can sometimes get him into trouble. Driscoll very rarely hurts himself (5.57 K/BB), and that is the main explanation for his miniscule 1.26 ERA. However, Cook might have the best stuff of the group. He matches Cooney’s velocity with Driscoll’s accuracy. Cook has 43 K’s in 35 innings and just three walks (14.33 K/BB). He gets hit only because he is consistently in the strike zone. Right now, Driscoll leads the way in ERA, but Cooney (2.70) and Cook (2.83) are not far behind.

Around the League:

Bates, Bowdoin and Colby are all pretty close in the race for the second seed in the East, so this weekend will decide the race. Barring a major upset this weekend when Tufts travels to Brunswick to play Bowdoin, the winner of the Colby at Bates series will make the playoffs as the second seed in the East. Bates currently sits at 4-3, and has two games remaining with the Jumbos after this weekend. Colby and Bowdoin, meanwhile, are 4-5. With just two wins, Bates will secure their playoff spot because they hold the tiebreaker over Bowdoin (unless Bowdoin can sweep Tufts).

The series between Hamilton and Williams has no implications for the postseason, but the two squads are fighting for the third seed in the West.

Trinity and Middlebury have no more playoff hopes going into this East vs. West matchup, but pride is still a motivating factor in these games, which is part of what makes sports so great. Both teams have been disappointing to this point, and want to prove that they won’t roll over. I fully expect the games between Middlebury and Trinity to be hard fought, competitive and fun to watch, just like those between Amherst and Wesleyan.

Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule:
Tufts at Bowdoin 3 PM
Colby at Bates 3 PM
Wesleyan at Amherst 3 PM

Enjoy the final weekend of a full NESCAC slate.

 

Power Rankings

As always, all picks are made by a committee of one. If you have any complaints about where a certain team is then please feel free to comment. And no I did not put certain teams purposefully low in order to get you angry.

1. Amherst (21-5, 7-1) – They don’t have the best record in the conference, or even their own division, but no team is as complete or playing as good baseball as Amherst. While Tufts has better top-end talent in the pitching department, Amherst has the deepest pitching of anyone. And while Amherst is third in the league in runs scored, the difference between them, Wesleyan and Tufts is minimal. Of course Amherst could prove me completely wrong if they don’t show up against Wesleyan. One way in which that could happen during this weekend’s critical West series is if Amherst’s defense lets down its talented staff. While Taiki Kasuga ’14 is usually great up the middle, the Jeffs’ infield defense combined for four errors last weekend against a Middlebury team that did not hit the ball on the ground too often, striking out 19 times over the course of three games, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14 had an ugly error on a line drive right at him, the product of a lapse in concentration. On the season, Amherst is tied for the fewest errors in the NESCAC, but one miscue can decide a game between two very talented teams.

2. Tufts (25-2, 6-1) – I predicted earlier in the year that Tufts would finish with less than eight wins. With only seven regular season games left that looks pretty good given they can lose a maximum of five games between the NESCAC and NCAA tournament (if they make it). We have talked at length about how good their pitching, but the concerns about their hitting are very real. Even though they roughed up Scott Goldberg ’15, the other Colby starters gave the Jumbos a tough time. At some point the time will come when the offense needs to pick up the staff, but will the bats be ready?

3. Wesleyan (21-6, 8-1) – Considering that they were the last team undefeated in conference and still hold the best record, Wesleyan fans are sure to take this ranking as disrespect. Know that the difference between the top three is razor thin. In a three game series I would not be surprised to see Wesleyan beat Tufts or Amherst, but I just have more questions about Wesleyan than I do the other teams. I am not sure if their pitching is going to hold up down the stretch or if their hitting is really as good as it seems given how they have struggeld at times in conference. This is the case of a team being great at many things, but not the best at any of them.

4. Bates (14-11, 4-3) – The gap between Wesleyan and Bates is big enough for an aircraft carrier to pass through. I almost left fourth place empty to make my point clear, but Bates has done enough in recent weeks to justify this spot. I don’t think they have a chance come playoffs, but I like them this weekend against Colby. Their senior class has been playing incredible, picking up the slack for a team that has otherwise underperformed preseason expectations.

5. Colby (14-9. 4-5) – Just a really tough weekend for Colby against Tufts. It was rough being swept, but losing two one run games is particularly heartbreaking. Now Colby falls right back into the mire in the middle of the East. Of course, if they win the series this weekend against Bates they make the playoffs, unless Bowdoin somehow sweeps Tufts, because Colby would own the tiebreaker against both Bates and Bowdoin.

6. Bowdoin (16-11-1, 4-5) – Most likely Bowdoin will finish the season without making the NESCAC tournament in what is a disappointing, albeit defensible, season. I say defensible because of all the injuries that occurred to the pitching staff. A lot of younger players stepped up, but it looks like it won’t be enough. You can count on Bowdoin fighting tooth and nail every pitch this weekend though.

7. Williams (8-13, 4-5) – The pitching just hasn’t been there for Williams all season to be competitive  in the West. Their team-wide 7.67 ERA is easily the worst in the NESCAC. The offense has been very, very good for most of the season, but was not quite as good when it really mattered against Wesleyan and Amherst. They still have a chance to finish above .500 if they sweep Hamilton, which would be a great finish for the Williams seniors who have had long successful individual careers.

8. Trinity (11-16, 4-8) – Trinity is the beginning of the bottom tier of the NESCAC (who would have guessed back in March that we’d be saying that now?), but the bottom three teams are much closer than they have been in years past. Trinity has shown that they are not far away from returning to the top of the league next season. They have lost a ton of close games in conference and are just one or two impact players away. Those players are most likely already on the roster, and the final weeks of the season will help the coaching staff identify those potential contributors.

9. Hamilton (2-6, 9-11) – Hamilton holds onto the ninth spot by virtue of handing Wesleyan their first conference loss in a comfortable 7-1 win. They showed they don’t have the depth to stay with the top teams, but they have a nice young core that is going to be coming back. A strong finish against Williams will move them up the rankings, but they could finish in the cellar because of how the last place team has been playing recently.

10. Middlebury (4-15, 2-10) – It pains me to put Middlebury last because they have been playing better than that in the last few weeks, but they haven’t garnered enough victories to justify moving them out of this spot. If they had stolen one from Amherst then they would have moved up. The good news is that the team is playing better and better and getting plenty of improvement from its young players. The pitching and infield defense have really been transformed since the team returned from Arizona, but the bats have yet to follow suit. Nevertheless, the future is looking a lot better than it was just three weeks ago.

Weekend Preview

Marquee Matchup: Amherst (12-3, 2-0) at Williams (6-5, 3-0)

The baseball rivalry lacks the cache of basketball and football, but any time these two schools meet it means a little bit more to everyone involved. Williams sits at the top of West after a sweep of Middlebury, but Amherst is clearly the favorite coming into this weekend after winning both of their games last weekend against Hamilton.

Williams is riding high after their offense showed once again its potency. The double play duo of shortstop Matt Kastner ’14 and second baseman Jack Roberts ’17 has posted insane numbers so far. Roberts is batting a nice .360/.396/.440 slashline in the cleanup spot, but his numbers pale in comparison to the outrageous .583/.659/.753 Kastner has been putting up. The rest of the lineup isn’t too shabby either with upperclassmen Marco Hernandez ’14, Thomas Stevens ’14, and Luke Pierce ’15 along with freshman outfielder Jack Cloud ’17 all posting similarly ridiculous stat lines so far. The problem the Ephs have been having is they are allowing almost as many runs as they score. Thomas Murphy ’15 (2.25 ERA) is the only pitcher with more than eight innings to have an ERA below 10.00. The team ERA is an astronomical 9.22. Williams pitching isn’t about to become nasty, but they can be better starting with cutting down on walks. 65 walks over 83 innings is way too many. The pitching staff needs to throw strikes and let a defense that has been very solid, besides Kastner with five errors, to make plays behind them.

Amherst has the luxury of trotting out three senior starters in Dylan Driscoll ’14, Fred Shepard ’14, and Quinn Saunders-Kolberg ’14 who are all owners of ERA’s  below 1.06. Driscoll hasn’t allowed one run, earned or unearned, in 22 innings so far this season. The bullpen is led by two-way stud and 2013 NESCAC Rookie of the Year Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (ERA of 2.45) and Keenan Szulik ’16 (ERA of 2.53). All of these guys except maybe Szulik are power pitchers who get hitters out more often than hitters get themselves out. This is clearly the best pitching that Williams will have seen all season, and it will be really interesting to see how the battle of good pitching vs. good hitting plays out. The Jeffs offense is led by seniors Alex Hero ’14 and Taiki Kasuga ’14. Hero must have the most steals for a cleanup hitter in the country with 10 bags so far, and Kasuga is getting on base at a not too shabby .444 rate. Andrew Vandini ’16 gets things started at the top of the lineup and has improved on an already stellar freshman campaign, and Odenwaelder and Connor Gunn ’16 provide the pop in the middle of the lineup.

Amherst has swept Williams the last three years in baseball so this represents the last chance for Williams senior standouts Kastner, Hernandez, and Stevens to take one from the Jeffs. I am certain that the pregame speeches by those three will be fraught with emotion for good reason. You can bet it means just as much for all the Amherst seniors to have the legacy of never losing to Williams. The Ephs are probably hoping some of these games finish with scores resembling a football game while Amherst will look to show how balanced and talented they really are. Should be a fun one this weekend.

Two To Watch

1. Brad Reynolds ’14 Pitcher (Bates)

Bates had the unfortunate draw of facing Tufts and Bowdoin in the first two weekends of conference play. They were only able to play one of their games last weekend which was a loss, and the series this weekend could define their season. If they take two of three they jumble up the East behind Tufts, but losing the series puts them in a hole that would be tough to recover from. That makes Reynolds start this weekend so important. The southpaw has been knocked around a fair amount this year giving up three home runs and sporting a 4.64 ERA, but he looked good last weekend going six innings against Tufts and only allowing two runs. His K/9 rate of 9.70 is up from last year, and his walks are way down as well. If he pitches like the ace Bates need him to be the Bobcats have a chance to shake up the East.

2. Jason Buco ’15 Outfielder (Colby)

Colby has flown under the radar so far because of their late Florida trip, but they posted a very nice record of 8-2 down south. They have their first games up north against Trinity in Hartford. Buco is the outfielder and two sport athlete who does it all for the Mules. He already has two home runs and three stolen bases to supplement his .514 OBP. He needs to have big games this weekend both at the plate and in the outfield. With the emergence of last week’s NESCAC Pitcher of the Week Scott Goldberg ’15 on the mound, the Mules are looking to surprise a Trinity team that can’t take anyone lightly this season. With Tufts playing a non-conference double header against Colby-Sawyer, the hierarchy of the East could either become very clear or extremely cloudy after this weekend.

Let’s Make Some Predictions!

Predictions are not easy. Especially when you are dealing with a Division 3 baseball league. They inherently have a cockiness to them that says ‘I know what I am talking about’, when really I don’t. I follow box scores incessantly and hear about players secondhand, but I don’t have access to in-depth scouting reports or any type of video for me to use. This is all a way of saying that if none of these predictions come true, it doesn’t mean that I suffered from lack of trying, but lack of information. But boy are predictions FUN! Here are seven I am willing to bet my honor on.

1. Tufts will finish with less than eight losses

Sure, Tufts is 14-1 right now, so you look at this and think I am not being too bold after all. However, the last time a Tufts team lost fewer than eight games was 2010 when the Jumbos finished 34-7. They still have 20 regular season games left as well as the NESCAC playoffs and then potentially the NCAA tournament. For this prediction to come true, Tufts probably needs to go 10-2 in conference play. The key for that is having deep pitching which is something Tufts has in spades. Their staff also has some great names. Kyle Slinger ’15 is ironic because… well you get it, Andrew David ’16 and Tom Ryan ’15 are trying to disprove the notion you can’t trust a man with two first names, and Tim Superko ’17 is really a Paul Konerko and Superman mashup.

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2. Joe Jensen ’15 (Hamilton) Will Lead The League in Stolen Bases

Of all my predictions this is the one that is the safest considering Jensen led the league last year with 11 more than anybody else. So far Alex Hero ’14 has bested Jensen by one steal, 10 to nine on the season. Despite this, I remain supremely confident that Jensen will beat out Hero and all other competitors. Besides Jensen’s obvious natural ability as evidenced by his track accomplishments, Hamilton is not a very deep offense capable of huge innings. While Amherst can be content with leaving Hero on first and letting other hitters drive him in, Hamilton needs Jensen to run every time he gets on. Even if he doesn’t repeat as stolen base leader, he already has this.

3. The Home Run Race Will Actually Be Exciting to Follow

Nobody is going to confuse this thing for the Summer of ’98 with McGwire and Sosa, but I think a couple of players will hit a good amount this season (Like at least six. You have to believe me when I say that’s a lot.) I am not ready to predict who the eventual winner will be, but Griffin Tewksbury ’14 (Bates), Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (Amherst), and Jason Buco ’15 (Colby) are the frontrunners. Of course it is so impossible to guess that I would be impressed with myself if one of those three won. I think a home run in the final weekend of the season will be the deciding one, but I have no idea where or by whom it will be hit.

4. Williams Will Lose a Game Despite Scoring at Least 15 Runs

If I was going to put a bet on which specific weekend it was going to be, I would choose the Wesleyan series next weekend. Both teams are much better at hitting than pitching especially once you get into the second or third game of a series. Williams has mashed almost everything put over the plate so far, but their opponents have done a fair amount themselves. They already lost a game to Oberlin 19-11 so 15 runs in a loss is not too far away. Their offense also makes them a dangerous team to play every game even if their weak pitching is likely to keep them from making too serious a run this season.

5. The Final Weekend of Conference Play is Going to Be Awesome

The NESCAC is saving the best for last as Amherst-Wesleyan and Tufts-Bowdoin are both the final series both teams will play. The winners of both series are likely to win their divisions, but what will be interesting is the relative position of the other teams. I fully expect these four to occupy the top four spots going into the weekend, but it is possible one of them gets swept opening the door for another team to sneak into the playoffs. Besides those implications, the games should just be a lot of fun to watch in weather that has hopefully warmed up to reasonably temperatures by then.

6. Team Wins and Team Strikeouts Will Be the Most Correlated Statistics

The ability to get strikeouts isn’t crucial for pitching success, but in the NESCAC if you strike out a lot of people you greatly improve your chances of preventing wins because not too many players will hurt you with the longball. Teams that strikeout a lot of their opponents have a huge advantage. A peak at the standings shows that far and away the three top teams in strikeouts are Wesleyan, Amherst, and Tufts. While you would expect ERA or OBP to have the most correlation to wins, strikeouts denote dominance and the team that gets more of them will usually win in this conference.

7. A Baseball Game Will Be Played in Maine This Season

It hasn’t happened yet so who is to say it will happen at all? Just think about that a little.