Tag: Peter Rantz

Power Rankings Part 3- The West Playoff Teams

We wrap up the Power Ranks with the two West playoff teams. Same format as the East, and the numbers coincide to their overall ranking this week. We will have our predictions for the weekend up tomorrow morning so make sure to check back in.

3. Amherst (28-7, 9-3)

Why They’ll Win: Amherst might be the only team who could give Tufts a running in the “most sheer talent” category. Their lineup is filled with dangerous hitters, most notably ace leadoff hitter and shortstop Taiki Kasuga ‘14, who comes into the playoffs batting .366, and Mike Odenwaelder ‘16, the Miguel Cabrera of this NESCAC season. Odenwaelder comes into the playoffs at least in the top three of every major offensive category known to man, and leading in batting average and slugging percentage, at .417 and .658 respectively. As if that wasn’t enough, Odenwaelder also sports a 1.74 ERA out of the bullpen. When you combine these offensive threats with the three-headed beast in the rotation of Dylan Driscoll ‘14, John Cook ‘15 and Quinn Saunders-Kolburg ‘14, Amherst looks as deep as any team except maybe Tufts.

Why They’ll Lose: The blueprint for beating Amherst was shown two weekends back when Wesleyan took two out of three from the Jeffs. In that series, Wesleyan was able to get to Driscoll early in game one, making the other matchups more even. Each game in the series was close, decided by 2 runs or less, and Wesleyan’s propensity for clutch hitting helped them in the first two games, one of which went 9 innings. The final game of the series was a classic, going 11 innings, with Odenwaelder hitting a two run homer to end it. If teams follow this formula, and scrape out a win against Driscoll, than either of the other matchups in the double-elimination weekend could come out against Amherst’s favor. By the way, Driscoll has been another pitcher in NESCAC play, with a below average 4.10 ERA.

Sleeper-Catcher Connor Gunn ‘16: As his last name implies, Gunn is a superb defensive catcher, who certainly deserves some credit for the success of Amherst’s pitching this season. While his overall offensive statistics are not eye-popping, he has shifted into another gear in NESCAC play, batting at .349 with a .899 OPS. This success has firmly planted him in the fifth spot in the lineup, behind season-long sluggers Odenwaelder and outfielder Alex Hero ’14. This middle of the order probably constitutes the best in NESCAC, and if Gunn can continue to constitute the back end of that threat, Amherst is probably pretty well set to repeat their tournament success from last year.

2. Wesleyan (24-10, 10-2)

Why They’ll Win: Wesleyan’s confidence is at an all-time high right now after posting a league best 10-2 record in NESCAC play, including taking two out of three from Amherst on the weekend of April 25. While Wesleyan certainly has the all around balance of any great NESCAC team, it’s their offense that carries them. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ‘15 has been solid all season, but in league play he has been unbelievable, batting .422 with a ridiculous .711 slugging percentage. Jonathon Dennett ‘15 and Guy Davidson ‘15, both of whom also rank in the top ten in NESCAC for RBI, flank him in the lineup. When you pair these sluggers with table setters like Andrew Yin ’15 and Donnie Cimino ’15, it makes for a potent lineup that any pitching staff would struggle to contain.

Why They’ll Lose: Wesleyan certainly has chinks in their armor that could cost them in this weekend. Although their pitching has stepped up to the plate (pardon the pun) in NESCAC play, posting a 2.10 ERA, for the season they come in with a mediocre 3.72, pointing to early inconsistencies in the rotation. Their main starting pitchers, Nick Cooney ‘15, Jeff Blout ’14 and Gavin Pittore ‘16, have all been solid, but can struggle with their control at times, leading to extra base runners. And against a well-oiled machine like Amherst or Tufts this weekend, mistakes like that are not often forgiven.

Sleeper- Relief pitcher Peter Rantz ‘16: If Wesleyan does have shaky performances from any of those three key starters, Rantz will be crucial in righting the ship, and giving the offense a chance to slug their way back into the game. Rantz was putting together a nice year out of the pen, with a 3.06 ERA, but has struggled mightily in NESCAC play. At his best, he is a guy who can relieve a struggling starter in the third inning and keep them in the game. It is likely this weekend Wesleyan will need to have that option.

The Turning Points

My favorite analogy to how a baseball season plays out is a long Dickensian novel with a constantly rotating cast of characters. Some players are critical to the development of the story while others stay hidden in the background most of the time. The NESCAC season is more like a novella when compared to the monstrosity that is the 162 MLB game season, but the idea still holds. Crunched into just more than two months (besides Bates who played a very early spring trip), the season is so compact with most teams playing about four games a week for most of March and April. As the season goes on themes begin to emerge. A team’s strengths and weaknesses become apparent, but certain things also change. A few games and moments stick out when thinking about how we got from the cold depths of winter to where we are now, the playoffs. Below are five that we think were formative moments in the season.

 

 

But first, a disclaimer. While the games listed below coincided with a change in fortunes for these teams, they are in no way evidence of the hot-hand myth. These are moments that we believe one could point to and say either that they had a major impact on the postseason or that a team played much better after this game, but the result of one game is not the cause of an extended run of success.

March 21 in Tucson, Arizona: Gustavus Adolphus 24 – Wesleyan 0

The 24-run defeat was the worst margin suffered by any NESCAC team this season, and knowing what we do now the result is even more shocking. Wesleyan is arguably the best team in the NESCAC while Gustavus Adolphus, from Minnesota, has gone 4-18 since that game. After the result Wesleyan stood at 8-5 and looked to be a team that was going to struggle in NESCAC play because their pitching was so bad. The best pitcher to that date had been Peter Rantz ’16 who started this very game and got tagged for five runs in 2.1 innings.  That helped prompt a change in the rotation with Gavin Pittore ’16 becoming the number three in stead of Rantz. Since that game the Wesleyan pitching has improved leaps and bounds to the point where the staff out-dueled Amherst this weekend. This is also a case of the final scoring making things look even worse. Nobody who pitched in that game should see meaningful innings in the playoffs. Regardless, Wesleyan clearly turned it around after this game when they promptly went on a 12-game winning streak.

2. March 29 in Medford, Massachusetts: Tufts 2 – Bates 0

Way back on March 29, Tufts and Bates opened up conference play in a game moved to Massachusetts because of the weather. This game is not significant for Tufts, though we did see Kyle Slinger ’15 show off how dominant he would be in conference when he struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings. Instead, the real meaning came in the pitching performance of Bates’ Brad Reynolds ’14. The big lefty had struggled mightily to begin the season in part because of a shaky defense. Yes, he took the loss by allowing two earned runs, but both of those runs came in the first inning. He shut down Tufts for the next six innings and then carried that into next week when he struck out 10 Bowdoin hitters in a Bates rout. Reynolds has turned into a bona fide ace winning his two other conference starts as well. His magnum opus came last Friday when he went all nine innings without allowing one run and striking out 12. Without Reynolds, Bates’ pitching would not have sniffed the playoffs, but he wasn’t that guy until that start against Tufts.

3. April 11 Middletown, Connecticut: Wesleyan 4 – Williams 1

Williams came into the weekend at 4-2 in the NESCAC after losing their previous series to Amherst, and Wesleyan was 3-0. This was the first game of the weekend, and Williams entered the bottom of the seventh with a 1-0 lead. Nobody had expected these two teams to be locked in a low-scoring battle, but the pitching by both teams was excellent. Williams’ Steve Marino ’14 allowed hits to Donnie Cimino ’15 and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 before a sacrifice bunt moved both into scoring position. After an error allowed the tying run to score and runners to be on the corners, Robby Harbison ’17 delivered a huge double to right field to score both runners and break the 1-1 tie. Williams couldn’t get anything going in the eighth or ninth and just like that they faced must win games the next two games. The next two games weren’t nearly as close, and so by the end of April 12 it was already apparent that Amherst and Wesleyan would be the two teams coming out of the West.

4. April 12 Brunswick, Maine: Colby 4 – Bowdoin 2

The teams split the first two games of the series so that entering the second game of the doubleheader Colby was 3-2 and Bowdoin was 4-4 in the NESCAC. The game was scoreless going into the top of the six because of great pitching by Greg Ladd ’15 for Colby and Jay Loughlin ’14 for Bowdoin. With the heart of Colby’s order coming up in the sixth, Bowdoin Manager Mike Connolly decided to turn to his left-hander Christian Martin ’14. After a fantastic 2013, Martin had pitched sparingly so far because of injury. The inning got off to a terrible start for him when he hit Jason Buco ’14. Three batters later the bases were loaded with one out and Daniel Csaplar ’16 at the plate. Csaplar didn’t shrink from the pressure, hitting a two-run double. The next batter, Jack Galvin ’14, hit a two-run single to chase Martin and put the game out of reach. The loss basically knocked Bowdoin out of the East race and momentarily elevated Colby to tied for first in the East at 4-2.

5. April 27 Waterville, Maine: Bates 6 – Colby 2

One of the final games in the NESCAC season decided the final playoff spot. This was a must win for Colby (started the game at 5-6) while conceivably Bates (started the game at 5-4) could have lost and then won their final two games against Tufts. The Bobcats clearly did not want to be in that situation, and they made sure it didn’t happen, led by clutch pitching from Chris Fusco ’14. Colby stranding 11 runners over the course of the game ultimately doomed them. The Bates offense came from a lot of different spots in the lineup with Sam Warren ’16 leading the way with three hits. A lot of players have stepped up to take the load off of the senior duo of Kevin Davis ’14 and Griffin Tewksbury ’14. Those two carried the team for much of the season, but near the end other Bates players came through to make the difference.

 

 

Looking Back, Glancing Forward: West Division

Spring trips are in full swing for most NESCAC baseball teams so now is a good time to get caught up on the entire goings on around the conference as well as looking ahead a little bit.

Amherst: The Lord Jeffs encountered a (understandable) case of wrong identity as the Oswego State Baseball Twitter account celebrated a win over “UMass Amherst.”

The loss was Amherst’s first this year. The normally effective Amherst offense could only manage eight hits including three by shortstop Taiki Kasuga ’14. John Cook ’15 looked very effective for the Jeffs firing seven innings and recording 13 strikouts with only two earned runs. The loss came one day after Tyler Jacobs ’15 hit a three run homer in the top of the tenth as Amherst won in extras over Rutgers-Camden. Amherst has a bunch of games left in Florida; the biggest of which is Saturday against Southern Maine, ranked #3 in the nation. We’ve yet to see the much-anticipated debut of Mike Odenwaelder on the mound, and the second-year player has struggled out of the gate at the dish, hitting .182 but with a home run among his two hits.

Hamilton: Last Saturday, Continentals outfielder Joe Jensen ’15 was at the D3 National Indoor Track Championships. We want to say congrats to Joe on finishing second in the nation for the 400-meter dash. To top it off, on Monday Jensen led off for Hamilton in their first game, reached his first at-bat via walk, and promptly stole second. Last year Jensen had 29 stolen bases, tops in the league and 11 more than the runner-up. Hamilton’s win against Bowdoin Monday doesn’t count towards the conference standings, but is a big confidence boost especially since it was Hamilton’s first game while Bowdoin had already played seven.

Middlebury: The Panthers don’t start their season until Saturday, but as Peter Lindholm reports, Middlebury has already suffered two huge losses this year. Pair of Two-Sport Stars Hang Up Their Spikes

Wesleyan: As expected, the Wesleyan offense has been potent, but the Cardinals are only 5-4 because they are allowing way too many runs. Already Cardinal opponents have had games of eight, nine, 12 and 13 runs. Donnie Cimino ’15 has been a beast posting an on-base percentage of .524 along with five stolen bases and other guys like Andrew Yin ’15 and Ellis Schaefer ’17 haven’t been shabby with the bat either. Jeff Blout ’14 has been a disaster on the mound with a 10.80 ERA after two starts, and the only bright spot in the rotation has been Peter Rantz ’16 who has a 1.04 ERA in 17.1 innings pitched. Wesleyan has four more games in Arizona to get their rotation figure out.

Williams: The Ephs will be the last team to get underway in the NESCAC with their first game this Sunday, March 23 in Arizona at 2 PM.