Tag: Hayden Rooke-Ley

Composite Power Rankings 1/9

Hunter Merryman '15 and Middlebury are the cream of the crop, for now. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Hunter Merryman ’15 and Middlebury are the cream of the crop, for now. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

As NESCAC season swiftly approaches tonight, we decided to get some of our staff members involved in this week’s power rankings. Everyone should feel pretty comfortable about the top team, but after that there was a huge amount of disagreement through the middle of the ranks which, I believe, is a testament to the depth in the league this season. On the other hand, it is probably also a result of a lot of impressive records against mediocre competition. That being said, the NESCAC continues to be one of the best Division-III hoops leagues in the nation, and we don’t see that changing any time soon.

Team Average AD SM AL JM PL
Midd 1.4 2 2 1 1 1
Amherst 2.6 1 1 4 5 2
Bates 3.4 6 3 3 2 3
Williams 4.2 3 6 2 4 6
Trinity 5.2 5 4 7 6 4
Wesleyan 5.6 4 5 5 7 7
Bowdoin 6.8 9 8 6 3 8
Hamilton 7.4 7 7 9 9 5
Colby 8.6 8 10 8 8 9
Conn 10 10 9 11 10 10
Tufts 10.8 11 11 10 11 11

(Contributors to the rankings: AD = Adam Dulsky; SM = Sean Meekins; AL = Adam Lamont; PL = Pete Lindholm)

1. Middlebury (9-0)

Adam, Pete, and I agree that the Panthers appear to be the class of the ‘CAC this season. Has this team returned to the level that the program was at from 2008-2013 when it lost 18 games over the course of five seasons? Probably not. I think that if Ryan Sharry, Andrew Locke, Nolan Thompson and the rest of the 2010-11 squad walked into Pepin in their prime they would dispatch the current edition of the Panthers with relative ease. But this team is no pushover, and in what appears to be a slightly down year for the usual suspects in Amherst and Williams, Middlebury could just grab its third NESCAC title.

For me personally, this ranking was less about the 9-0 record than the fact that I’ve felt since the preseason that this was a championship-worthy roster, and with the promising early season play of a few youngsters and the recent return of Matt Daley ’16, this team is only getting stronger.

2. Amherst (8-2)

Amherst and Williams will always gain respect just based on the name, but this team looks pretty good on the floor in its own right. In watching Amherst back in early December, we had some concerns about their perimeter defense.

Amherst is still allowing too many points per game (eighth in the NESCAC with 67.2), but NESCAC Rookie of the Year candidate Johnny McCarthy ’18 is a defensive force, leading the NESCAC in steals per game to date, and David George ’17 is still fantastic at discouraging points at the rim, so it’s curious that the Lord Jeffs have allowed so many points. What they are great at, though, is scoring. When they match up with our number one team, Middlebury, it will be a must-watch just for the ability of everyone involved to put the ball in the hoop.

3. Bates (9-2)

I like Bates more than most at this point in the season. Am I just jumping on the hype train? Maybe. But it seems like senior leader Graham Safford ’15 has elevated his game both on the stat sheet and in terms of his intangibles, and has really become a Kizel/Toomey type of transcendent player. In terms of numbers, he has improved on his field goal and three point percentages while also racking up almost two more assists per game. I think Safford leads the Bobcats deep into the NESCAC tournament.

4. Williams (9-3)

I know Ephs’ fans are sick of hearing it, but imagine if they still had Duncan Robinson. That would be scary. Even without Robinson, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Dan Wohl ’15 are just filling it up. Both are above 19.0 points per game. Rooke-Ley is like Ray Allen from the line right now, which you should read more about here. Wohl is not only one of the league’s best sharp shooters, but the 6’6″ guard/forward leads the league in defensive rebounds. The one thing this team lacks is depth, as six players chew up most of the minutes for first-year coach Kevin App. Perhaps to say that the team lacks depth is the wrong way to word it, because a lot of those bench guys could get big minutes elsewhere around the league, but it could cause a problem if one of the Ephs’ stars were to go down with an injury because his replacement would lack experience. Take Rooke-Ley for example, who was only able to play 10 minutes in Williams’ last game against Endicott because of a minor injury. Unfortunately, Rooke-Ley has a long injury history at Williams, so we have to hope that nothing more serious materializes for the senior.

5. Trinity (10-2)

With the Bantams it comes down to whether or not you believe that this uptick in scoring is for real, or if they will return to their anemic offensive ways once the competition stiffens up. I think they will regress some, but Jaquann Starks ’16 is a much better offensive player than he was last year, as is Shay Ajayi ’16, someone I thought could break out for the Bantams before the season began. I think this middle of the pack prediction is pretty accurate, and I could see them stealing a game in the NESCAC tournament on the road.

6. Wesleyan (10-2)

As we mentioned a few days ago, Wesleyan is off to an historic start to the season.

Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 has become less of a distributor and more of a scorer, leading the Cardinals in points per game. He and Jack Mackey ’16 make for a scary three-point duo. Rashid Epps ’16 has continued his maturation, averaging nearly a double-double so far this season, and Joseph Kuo ’17 is a force inside, turning away more than one shot per game. There’s a lot of experience on this roster, so even though this level of success is new to this Cardinals’ roster, they should be able to stay competitive throughout conference play.

7. Bowdoin (8-3)

I ranked Bowdoin much higher than the rest of the crowd. Even Lamont, a Polar Bear himself, had Bowdoin down a few notches more than I did. But this is a team with NCAA tournament experience, and I think the presence of John Swords ’15 gives them a chance to win any game, on top of the continued strong play of point guard Bryan Hurley ’15, who I think will continue to get better and more comfortable as he gets further away from the knee surgery that kept him out for most of last season.

8. Hamilton (10-2)

Hamilton fans aren’t going to like this one. The Continentals are 10-2 and we have them ranked eighth? Well the fact of the matter is that as much as we’ve talked about soft early season schedules for NESCAC teams this year, Hamilton might take the cake. Their best win came at home by just four points to 8-5 Lycoming. Joseph Lin ’15, Peter Kazickas ’15 and Ajani Santos ’16 have all taken huge steps forward this season, but there’s not much production coming after the starting five.

9. Colby (7-5)

It will hurt me if this team fails to make the playoffs, both because they are fun to watch and I have a few personal connections to the team. But they just don’t play any defense, which is key in conference play. Opponents are shooting 41.5 percent from the floor against the Mules, and Colby has the second-worst rebounding margin in the NESCAC. They really miss power forward Patrick Stewart ’16 and the defensive presence he helped bring besides Chris Hudnut ’16. If they can’t remedy these issues then they can say good bye to their chances of playing into late February.

10. Conn College (7-4)

Conn has actually bounced back well statistically from the graduation of Matt Vadas ’14, as the Camels are averaging 71.9 points per game, actually up from last year’s 69.3 points per game. But those points aren’t coming efficiently at all, as Conn has the league’s worst shooting percentage. But be patient Camels fans. There are five first years getting double digit minutes, the team’s best player, Zuri Pavlin ’17, is but a sophomore, and Bryan Gross ’15, currently getting under 10 minutes per game, is the only senior on the roster. So there will be better times ahead.

11. Tufts (4-7)

What can we say about the Jumbos this season? Despite so much potential before the year began, exactly what we feared might happen has come to fruition. Like in years past, Tufts just can’t put the pieces together. Last year it was injuries to Tom Palleschi ’17 and Ben Ferris ’15. This year it’s simply ineffectiveness. Guys that formerly were money from beyond the arc have completely lost the ability to hit threes, Ferris looks like a shell of his Rookie of the Year Award-winning self, Palleschi is still shaking off the rust and it appears that coach Bob Sheldon can’t find a lineup he likes because almost the entire roster is getting into most games. The lone bright spot is the continued production of Hunter Sabety ’17. With him, Palleschi and guards Tarik Smith ’17, Stephen Haladyna ’16 and Vinny Pace ’18 back for 2015-16, the story will be the same next season. Loads of potential, but when will it come together for Tufts?

Ooops We Did it Again: NESCAC Fantasy Basketball

I am still mad about how the inaugural Nothing but NESCAC Fantasy Football Season ended. I mean Pete Lindholm treated his fantasy team like an unwanted puppy for most of the season before realizing that said puppy was actually cute as a button and would help him with girls. Of course, the only thing cute about Pete’s fantasy team was that Matt Milano ’16 decided to go all John McClane on me and almost beat my team single-handedly.

So how did I decide to overcome such trauma? Did I choose the honorable route and try to beat Pete at Fantasy Basketball?

No, I took the easy way out and simply made for certain that Pete would be unable to spoil basketball for me. Joe MacDonald and I partook in a fantasy draft last night without telling Pete, or any other members of our staff about it. Sorry Pete, but I already beat you, and the season hasn’t even started yet.

Okay so enough gloating about my Dr. Evil plan. Fantasy Basketball will work a little differently than football did because there are only two participants. First, only NESCAC conference games count towards fantasy. Second, the league will be scored rotisserie-style meaning that there are no weekly matchups. Rather, there are eight categories: FG Percentage, FT Percentage, Three Pointers Made, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, and Points. At the end of the season whoever wins each category gets a point. So whoever wins more categories wins the league. Finally, the roster is simple: three guards, four forwards, and three bench players. Rosters can change every week. Waivers switch every week back and forth. After the first weekend Joe gets first priority and then next weekend I get first priority.

Every week we will update you on our progress. Here is a rundown of the draft.

First Round

Adam: Forward Dylan Sinnickson ’15: “Since Sinnickson is near the top of the NESCAC in rebounds and points despite playing so few minutes, I expect his numbers to be even higher in conference play. He does not get a lot of assists, but I think I will be able to make up that difference elsewhere.”

Joe: Forward Chris Hudnut ’16: “With the top pick I wanted an all-around player, and Hudnut is just that. He excels in multiple categories, i.e. points, field goal percentage and rebounds, and for a big man those 3.0 assists per game aren’t too shabby either.”

Second Round

Joe: Guard Luke Westman ’16: “I’m in love with efficiency, and no one is more efficient than Westman. It is truly amazing that a point guard can have a field goal percentage around the 70 percent mark. He’ll chip in some nice assists, too, with good rebound and steal totals as well. Also, both Adam and I played for his older brother in high school, and in one brief meeting with the younger Westman he made a good impression on me. You have to have good chemistry in fantasy basketball so that also factored into this selection.”

Adam: Guard Graham Safford ’15: “Go ahead and take Westman, young Joseph. I am more than content getting the best all-around guard in the ‘CAC. Safford averages more points, rebounds, and assists. Yes, Westman has a major edge in efficiency, but Westman is no guarantee to come through every game while Safford is a known warrior.”

Third Round

Adam: Guard Dan Wohl ’15: “While I am at it I might as well go get the other 1,000 point scorer in the NESCAC. Wohl has been overshadowed by others until this season, but he has shown himself to be fully capable of being the lead man offensively. I will gladly take his 19+ PPG.”

Joe: Guard Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15: “Even with the knowledge that Rooke-Ley played limited minutes in his last game due to injury, I was willing to take the risk for the current leading scorer in the NESCAC. He will be a boon not only in points, but also in three pointers and free throw percentage.”

Fourth Round

Joe: Forward Zuri Pavlin ’17: “Pavlin is another guy that I just love as a player, numbers aside. I had him pegged as a NESCAC First-Teamer before the season, and he’s making me look pretty smart by improving on his point and rebound numbers so far this season.”

Adam: Forward John Swords ’15: “His rebounding numbers are down a little but Swords is still a double-double machine. Throw in his ability to get multiple blocks in a game and he is a great fantasy player. Not to mention that he is incredibly efficient shooting 72.3 percent from the field.”

Fifth Round

Adam: Guard Johnny McCarthy ’18: “Joe made fun of me for picking my third guard so early saying that this pick makes my love affair with McCarthy official. Yes I am driving the McCarthy bandwagon, I am unabashed about that. Do not let that blind you to the fact he leads the league in steals and is gaining confidence every game offensively.”

Joe: Forward Hunter Merryman ’15: “I already had the best free throw shooter and the best shooting guard from the field, so I took the best long-range bomber in the ‘CAC in this round. That’s what this pick was about, getting buckets. Just like my man Hunter.”

Sixth Round

Joe: Forward Hunter Sabety ’17: “Sabety is just a slightly less productive version of my first pick, Hudnut, so I think this was a steal. Sabety is superior in field goal percentage and blocks but gives up a few points, rebounds and assists. Nonetheless I feel great about my front court at this point.”

Adam: Forward Rashid Epps ’16: “The numbers that Epps has put up this far are solid if not overwhelming, but I think Wesleyan leans on their best players more as conference play gets underway. That is exactly what Epps is so you can call this a gut pick if you’d like.”

Seventh Round

Adam: Guard Jake Brown ’17: “My starting lineup is still not filled out but I can’t pass on Brown. I mean how can I resist a stat line of 10 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and four steals? His scoring will go up because teams will be unwilling to help off of the Middlebury shooters.”

Joe: Guard Joseph Lin ’15: “At this point I was looking for one more starting guard, and I found it in Lin. His primary contribution will come in assists, which I really felt I was lacking in.”

Eight Round

Joe: Forward David George ’17: “Back to the big men in round eight. Since this is a rotisserie league, there will be an opportunity to slot in George if I am losing close in blocks down the stretch, which could make the difference, and he’s an above average rebounder as well.”

Adam: Forward Shay Ajayi ’16: “Ajayi has gone through stretches of very good play and then also some stretches where he looks average. If he plays more consistently then this turns into a very good pick.”

Ninth Round

Adam: Forward Ajani Santos ’16: “First Ajayi, now Ajani. Santos’ numbers have actually tailed off significantly in recent games, but he is the most talented player on the Hamilton roster. At this point I can stash him on my bench and see if he can turn things around.”

Joe: Guard Lucas Hausman ’16: “I’m not convinced that Lin will keep up his numbers in conference play, so I decided to give myself some cushion with these next two picks. Hausman has improved tremendously on offense, and his 88.1 percent free throw percentage will off set some of my Shaquille O’Neal-like big men.

Tenth Round

Joe: Guard Jaquann Starks ’16: “Starks has been an astronomically better shooter this year than last, which makes up for the paltry 2.0 assists per game. But I can live with that if he’s going to keep pouring in buckets from all over the floor at his current clip.”

Adam: Forward Marcus Delpeche ’17: “This pick came down to Delpeche or Mike Boornazian ’16. Boornazian is a better all-around player, but Delpeche’s blocks and rebounds make him an intriguing player for me to grab this late.”

Here are the Final Rosters.

Adam

Guard: Graham Safford ’15, Dan Wohl ’15, Johnny McCarthy ’18, Jake Brown ’17

Forward: Dylan Sinnickson ’15, John Swords ’15, Rashid Epps ’16, Shay Ajayi ’16, Ajani Santos ’16, Marcus Delpeche ’17

Joe

Guard: Luke Westman ’16, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, Joseph Lin ’15, Lucas Hausman ’16, Jaquann Starks ’16

Forward: Chris Hudnut ’16, Zuri Pavlin ’17, Hunter Merryman ’15, Hunter Sabety ’17, David George ’17

Early Look at the Player of the Year Race

NESCAC Basketball is in full swing now, giving me a reason to love in the beginning of this long, devastating Vermont winter. Each team has played at least two full weekends of games against competition ranging from mediocre to a little under mediocre, so in true ESPN fashion, I think it’s a fair juncture to speculate about some end of season results. Here I handicap the early season race for Player of the Year. The difficult thing about writing this article at such an early juncture in the season is finding the delicate equilibrium (big words for a sports article, right?) between who is playing the best right now, and whom I think will be playing the best at the end of the year. I’ve done my best to balance those two ideologies here, but please be nice to me about my picks when this goes viral on ESPN.com.

Dan Wohl '15
Dan Wohl ’15 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

1. Daniel Wohl (Williams ’15)

Coming into the season, it was clear that the Ephs were going to need a new messiah following Duncan Robinson’s ascension to Michigan and Michael Mayer’s graduation. And early in the season, that door was definitively open. Williams opened the year with back-to-back losses to Southern Vermont and Oneonta State, reaffirming the many fears that Ephs fans had regarding the season. Then Daniel Wohl emerged. Averaging 18.1 points per game (with a 51/40/73 shooting line) to go along with a robust 9.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists, Wohl has provided a sense of toughness and consistency to pair with the streaky outside oriented game of partner in crime Hayden Rooke-Ley. Wohl’s all-around skills have been crucial to Williams remaining a power in the conference, and that is what catapults him to the top of this list.

Dylan Sinnickson (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Dylan Sinnickson ’15 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

2. Dylan Sinnickson (Middlebury ’15)

The third leading scorer and second leading rebounder in the league, Sinnickson appears to have made the leap that his precocious skill set had been foreshadowing for some time. Like Wohl, Sinnickson’s rebounding has been an underwritten but crucial aspect to the otherwise interiorly challenged Panthers, and his scoring has given them a go-to guy, who can create a shot out of seemingly impossible situations. Sinnickson has also shown a new propensity for clutch play, hitting a tough step back three and layup to slow down a run by RPI in Middlebury’s home opener on Sunday. His shooting has been less consistent than last year at only 31 percent from 3, but he has been going to the basket more authoritatively, and more outside shots will fall as the explosive Middlebury offense continues to gel. Sinnickson and Wohl have both been crucial to their team’s fast starts, and should continue to duke it out for postseason honors throughout the season.

Chris Hudnut '16 (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)
Chris Hudnut ’16 (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)

3. Chris Hudnut (Colby ’16)

Thus far, 2014-2015 can be seen as the year of the skilled forward in NESCAC, with Hudnut leading the charge. Although he spends far more time inside than Wohl and Sinnickson, he still has managed to put up 2.9 assists per game, pointing both to his high skillset and importance to the Colby offense. Those assist totals are coupled with 19.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, good for third and fourth in the league respectively. Hudnut’s impressive campaign is even further aided by 1.1 blocks and steals per game, again showing his impressive skill set for an interior player.

Hayden Rooke-Ley '15 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

4. Hayden Rooke-Ley (Williams ’15)

I had spent most of the past few days flip flopping on where to put Rooke-Ley on this list, going as high as third and as low as off the list entirely. It’s certainly hard to ignore a player who has a 12 three pointer game (as Rooke-Ley put up against Johnson State,) and has not missed a free throw yet this year, an absurd 62-62 streak. However, he also started off the year an abysmal 1-15 from three, and his 3.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game are far from the all around excellence of the other players on this list. Perhaps sensing these internal qualms, Rooke-Ley proceeded to put up 43 points on 10-14 from three in RPI on Tuesday night, a team that gave Middlebury something of a scare at home on Sunday afternoon. He had 31 points with 9 threes in the first half alone. This performance rocketed him to the top of the NESCAC scoring list, overtaking Sinnickson. Rooke-Ley certainly lives and dies by the three pointer, but he’s doing considerably more living than dying right now, and that deserves some early season recognition.

Graham Safford '15 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Graham Safford ’15 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

5. Graham Safford (Bates ’15)

Safford’s candidacy for POY has been hindered somewhat by the prevalence of skilled forwards, but there has been perhaps no player more crucial to their team’s success than him. Bates has turned a lot of heads this year with a 6-0 start, including a 101-85 win over UNE, who fell to Middlebury on a buzzer beater, and a 76-70 win over Colby last night. With 19 points, 14 assists and 8 rebounds, Safford’s performance against UNE was enough to put him in the Player of the Year conversation.   That kind of all around performance has been a staple of his campaign, as he is averaging 15.2 points, 5.8 assists, and 7.2 rebounds per games, an extremely impressive number for a guard. However, inconsistent shooting and a high turnover rate (4.7 per game) have caused Safford to fall on this list, careening towards the jaws of the big men on the honorable mention list.

Honorable Mention

Hunter Sabety '17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Hunter Sabety ’17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Hunter Sabety (Tufts ’17)

Like the players on the top five, Sabety has been the focal point of his team’s offense. Unfortunately, this is far less of a compliment for Sabety than it is for the other players. Tufts has had a disappointing start to the year after coming in as a pre-season favorite. Sabety battled injuries to start the year and hasn’t played to the dominant level that it looked like he might jump to after an impressive freshman campaign. Tufts will probably figure it out in conjunction with Sabety, and it is unlikely that he isn’t in the running for POY by the end of the season.

Johnny McCarthy '18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Johnny McCarthy ’18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Johnny McCarthy (Amherst ’18)

 Amherst has only played four games this year, against mostly underwhelming competition. Furthermore, they have such a balanced attack that no one player has stood out statistically on the Lord Jeff roster for the purposes of this award. However, the freshman McCarthy has stood out on the team for his excellent shooting (56% for the year) and scoring despite low minutes due to blowouts early in the year. He leads the team at 14.0 points per game in just 25 minutes, and should increase his output as Amherst’s competition gets stronger.

 

John Swords '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

John Swords (Bowdoin ’15)

The 7’0” Bowdoin center was originally in the top five, mostly on the strength of his rebounding and absurd 75% field goal percentage. However, an anemic performance by Swords (and Bowdoin collectively) against Babson coincided with Rooke-Ley’s ascension to push Swords out of the top five. It is still unclear as to whether Swords will be able to carry the Polar Bears’ inconsistent offense against more talented teams once league play begins, but the performance against Babson doesn’t bode well. Fortunately, he will soon have ample opportunity to prove me wrong.

 

As I implied earlier, these rankings are very early and are by no means final (although of course no Amherst players should be legally allowed to win it.) It will be my, and every NESCAC basketball fan’s, distinct pleasure to watch this incredibly talented crop of players battle it out as the season progresses.

Much to be Thankful for: Stock Report 12/1

 

The Thanksgiving holiday causes barely a blip in most team’s schedules, and the last week of November gave us plenty more of data points to judge teams off of. Overall it was a good week for NESCAC schools with the league going 15-4 combined. Five teams (Amherst, Bowdoin, Bates, Hamilton, and Middlebury) remain undefeated, and Tufts is the only team under .500 at 2-3.

Williams’ Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 has emerged as the best story of the season thus far because of his sweet shooting stroke. The guard is now a perfect 61-61 from the free throw line.

Williams plays at RPI tonight at 8 PM, and you can watch as Rooke-Ley goes for the record here.

Stock Up

Guard Joseph Lin ’15 (Hamilton): After Matt Hart ’16 transferred and Greg Newton ’14 graduated, Hamilton needed to revamp their backcourt this season. Lin was a backup last season who averaged 5.6 points and 1.8 assists per game last season. He has bumped up those averages big time to lead the team in points with 13.4 per game and assists with 5.0 per game. Somewhat amazingly, Lin is still coming off the bench while Greg Dwyer ’18 runs the first team.  The Continentals are off to a 6-0 start, though four of those wins have come by single digits. The younger brother of that other Lin is ensuring that Hamilton, the team that was predicted to be one of the weakest teams in the NESCAC, still has a lot of friskiness in it.

Trinity’s Defense: Just as the warning bells were starting to go off in Hartford, the Bantams appear to have righted the ship. In their last two games, Trinity has held their opponents to an average of 45 points per game. Both games were wins despite the Bantams scoring less than 60 points in both games. The Bantams will take any drop in offensive production as long as they keep grinding out victories. Jaquann Starks ’16 is leading the team in scoring though he is averaging less than two assists per game. Wednesday will be a good test for Trinity when they play Springfield, an NCAA tournament team a year ago.

Center Chris Hudnut ’16 (Colby): Consistent excellence is one of the hardest things for fans to appreciate, especially when that excellence comes in the form of unflashy play. Hudnut’s game reminds us of Tim Duncan, someone whose greatness was not properly understood for a long time. On the offensive end Hudnut is effective because he can score in so many different ways. He can work out of the pick and roll, attack from the elbow, or use his varied post game in the low block. He uses his size and strength to overcome athleticism that is really only slightly above average. Hudnut has abandoned the three pointer after shooting 64 threes last season. That commitment to playing inside helps explain his uptick in rebounding as well from 8.4 to 10.9 rebounds per game.

Stock Down

Guard Stephen Haladyna ’16 (Tufts): The junior small forward is the third leading scorer for Tufts with 8.2 points per game, but that is where the good news ends for him. He is shooting only 25.5% from the field, including an awful 17.4% from three. He has been taking poor care of the ball turning it over 2.6 times per game while only supplying 1.0 assist per game. He has seen his production tail off in the last two games in large part because he went 0-8 from beyond the arc. Tufts sits at 2-3 on the year now, and Haladyna is far from the only reason why they are in this funk. Still, he needs to shake off his early season shooting slump now for the Jumbos to get back on track.

Free Throw Shooting: For some odd reason, about half of the NESCAC is having an awful time at the line overall so far this season. Five teams are all shooting less than 66.6% from the line. For comparisons sake, Trinity had the lowest percentage last year and still made 67.0%. Tufts and Wesleyan are both barely over 60%, a level that is usually reserved only for big men. Though overall the league is not far off from where it was last year, most of that is because of the absurd rate that Rooke-Ley has taken and made free throws. Take out his shooting and the overall NESCAC percentage falls from a respectable 72.4% (only .3% off of last year’s overall total) to a much less impressive 71.0%.

Bowdoin Identity: The Polar Bears carved out an identity in 2013-2014 built around defense and rebounding. Center John Swords ’15 was the obvious reason for that being their strength, yet there were concerns that they would be unable to replicate the same template because of the loss of their senior class. Grant White ’14 and Andrew Madlinger ’14 were both well above-average perimeter defenders who allowed Bowdoin to play both man and zone. The early returns through four games for Bowdoin were good though. Opponents were scoring a NESCAC-leading 57.5 points per game while the Polar Bears out-rebounded teams by 14.2 boards per game. Then the Polar Bears laid an egg last night losing 68-48 to Babson. The offense was shut down for long stretches, but the real concerns are how Babson was able to control play. Bowdoin lost the battle for the boards by nine despite Babson only having one player above 6’5″. After starting 12-0 in 2013, Bowdoin needs to recover from their first loss quickly with games against Colby and Bates later this week.

 

One Last Time

This post was written by Joe MacDonald, with substantial help and revisions from Adam Lamont.

It’s not often that two college basketball teams, from any division, meet four times in a single season. But that’s exactly what will transpire later tonight at 8:30 in Salem, Virginia, the site of the NCAA D-III Final Four. Amherst and Williams, the NESCAC’s two premier men’s basketball programs, will match up with a chance to play for a national title.

The History:

Over the past four seasons, Amherst and Williams have played 11 games. Each year, the schools schedule just one meeting in addition to their requisite conference game, but somehow these two seem to find one another come postseason play. Amherst has won eight of those 11 games, including the last seven and all three this season. The Lord Jeffs’ have outscored Williams by 5.5 points per game over that span, and this season have registered victories by 11, 12 and 11 points. The two regular season games were comfortable victories for Amherst, but the NESCAC championship game was close until Amherst pulled away at the end. To the Ephs’ credit, the only NCAA Tournament meeting went in Williams’ favor, 77-71, in the 2011 Elite Eight.

In that 2011 Tournament meeting, Williams’ Taylor Epley and Hayden Rooke-Ley played a total of 27 minutes, one more than Amherst’s Aaron Toomey’s 26. So besides Toomey, the players in this year’s rendition will be far different than those who met in 2011.

Combined, Amherst and Williams have won 11 of 14 NESCAC championships and three national titles, the most recent coming last year when Amherst garnered the crown. Over the past four years, the two schools have combined for seven 20-win seasons, going 197-32 (.860) overall. Since 2010, the Ephs and Jeffs have earned 14 All-Conference selections, one NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year, two NESCAC Rookie of the Years and three NESCAC Player of the Years. Both have extraordinary senior classes who have made this rivalry incredible to watch for the last four years. The two most storied programs in the NESCAC will be on the floor on the national stage  tonight.

Amherst is two wins away from back-to-back championships
Amherst is two wins away from back-to-back championships

The Players:

The match ups in this game are ridiculous at every position. The amazing thing is that despite there being five senior starters among the two teams, it is likely none of them guard each other. From Amherst’s emerging freshman center David George against All-American Michael Mayer to Williams’ NESCAC Rookie of the Year Duncan Robinson against arguably the best perimeter defender in the NESCAC, Tom Killian, each match up holds intrigue.

Any discussion about Amherst over the past four seasons has dealt heavily with All-American point guard Aaron Toomey. Toomey is the program’s leading scorer with 2,030 points, more than 300 points ahead of second-place. Furthermore, Toomey has made more free throws and three-pointers than any Jeff in history. This season, Toomey has set career highs with 20.5 points per game and 6.4 assists per game, which ranks 10th nationally, as well as field goal percentage (47.2%) and three-point percentage (40.6%). For all those numbers his value extends much further as his ability to absolutely control the pace and rhythm of games is unmatched in D-III basketball. It’s hard to overstate the value of a senior captain who plays 34.5 minutes per game, and the amount of awards that Toomey has collected merely hint at his value. He is the back-to-back NESCAC Player of the Year, the reigning National Player of the Year, a two-time NABC first-team All-American,  and former NESCAC  Rookie of the Year. Toomey could be the best player in Jeffs history which is very impressive given the caliber of players Amherst has had over the years.

Toomey runs the show, but his supporting cast is excellent. Seniors David Kalema and Tom Killian have improved every year at Amherst to become vital cogs for the Jeffs. Kalema isn’t the floor general Toomey is, but he works as a perfect complement as a slasher and three point shooter averaging 12.7 points per game. Meanwhile, if the NESCAC had a Most Improved Player award, senior Tom Killian would be one of the front runners. The rangy swingman has added muscle to his frame to help him finish at the rim, and he is another above average three-point shooter, a crucial component of Amherst’s offense. The two seniors most valuable contributions might actually be on the defensive end. They guard the best offensive threats the other team has as well as generating steals and easy buckets that change the flow of games in a hurry.

The other two important players for Amherst are Connor Green and David George. Green is a streaky scorer who makes Amherst unstoppable when he is playing well, but he could also throw up a 1-10 shooting night. George is the more intriguing player in this game as he was the backup center this year until sophomore Ben Pollack went down with a season-ending injury. Since then George has come into his own offensively and defensively. His potential is enormous on both ends, but for this game his most important contributions will come on defense.

On the other side, Williams trots out its own All-American, center Michael Mayer. Mayer began his career behind a couple of nationally-recognized big men, and was overshadowed by classmates Epley and Rooke-Ley as a freshman. As a sophomore, Mayer played big minutes, but still only started in two games. But ever since the start of the 2012 season, Mayer has become one of the best big men in D-III. Mayer racked up 17.5 points per game and 8.8 rebounds per game as a junior, when he earned D3Hoops.com Third-Team All-American honors, and improved those numbers to 18.2 and 8.9 this season. Mayer is special, too, because he combines great passing (2.3 assists per game between 2012-14) with unstoppable post moves.

Mayer’s classmate, Epley, has been a standout since day one for the Ephs, registering 1,433 points (ninth in program history) in his career. During their freshman season, it appeared that Epley and Rooke-Ley would lead the Ephs for years to come, but injuries have derailed Rooke-Ley’s career to the extent that he’s played just 42 games over the last three years, and missed all of 2012-13 because of injury, for which he was awarded a medical red shirt. When he’s been healthy this season, Rooke-Ley has shown why he’s so dangerous. A 50 percent shooter, the guard averaged 11.1 points per game and 2.0 assists, and he has been a great lift coming off the bench in the second half of this season. The player who sometimes gets lost in the shuffle for Williams is junior guard Daniel Wohl, a more defense first presence who will be matched up with Kalema when he is in the game, but could see limited minutes in this game because of how well both point guards Rooke-Ley and Mike Greenman have been playing.

The Ephs would not be where they are today, despite the level of experience on their roster, without their freshman class headlined by NESCAC Rookie of the Year Robinson. The 6’7” swing man has point guard handles but power forward size. He’s incredibly efficient (55 FG%, 44.6 3PT%) and fills up the stat sheet almost every night (6.7 rebounds per game, 1.9 assists per game, 1.2 blocks per game). He’s been showered with praise by analysts and coaches around the league, and odds are he finishes his career with at least one NESCAC Player of the Year award. The other freshman are point guard Mike  Greenman and shooting guard Dan Aronowitz. Greenman has come into his own since injuries to Rooke-Ley provided an opportunity earlier in the season. The diminutive point guard has earned a reputation for his fearlessness hitting big shots for the Ephs in the NESCAC tournament. Aronowitz has seen his minutes squeezed because of others’ return from injuries, but was a starter for some games earlier in the year.

The Match Up:
With Amherst having topped Williams by double digits in every meeting this year, the odds have to be in the Jeffs’ favor. Still, Williams is playing its best basketball all season with an offense that has been unstoppable in the tournament. It’s been mostly the supporting casts doing the heavy lifting for both teams in their head-to-head games so far this season. Toomey has averaged 12.3 points per game in the three meetings this season. Robinson scored 12 and 9 before exploding for 26 in the NESCAC championship in a losing effort. Mayer has averaged 17.3 points, but only tallied 10 in the NESCAC title game. Epley has had the most curious season of all the Ephs in the rivalry, scoring 15 and 16 but also notching a goose egg on January 22nd.

How can Williams finally overcome Amherst?

In short, get the ball out of Toomey’s hands early, which is, of course, easier said than done. Despite not putting up big points in the three meetings this season, Toomey has tallied double digit assists twice. The Ephs like to switch up defenses throughout the game, which could backfire if they allow Toomey to penetrate the zone and kick to the Jeffs’ shooters. When in man-to-man, guards Greenman, Daniel Wohl and Rooke-Ley need to focus on the defensive end and pressure Toomey beyond the three-point line without getting beat off the dribble. The majority of the Ephs’ scoring should fall to the front court between Mayer, Robinson and Epley. The Ephs should look to run the offense through Mayer, both on the block and at the elbow. He has to attack early to try to get George into foul trouble because Pollack’s injury robs Amherst of their frontcourt depth. If George gets into foul trouble, Amherst’s Joseph Mussachia or whoever comes in to guard Mayer will need constant help, so Mayer will be able to find Epley and Robinson for open shots. As a team, the Jeffs hit 15 threes in the NESCAC championship game, and shot right around 50 percent from the field over the three meetings. Don’t expect the moment to get to Amherst and for them to stop launching and making threes at a prolific rate. Bottom line, Williams’ defense especially on the perimeter has to be better.

Prediction: Amherst 89, Williams 85 (OT)

Both of these teams are offensive-minded, which was obvious in the NESCAC title game when the squads combined for 175 points. Beating a team as talented as Williams four times in a row is really hard, but you have to how Amherst plays against Williams, no matter how much either side schemes to stop the other. I see Williams keeping it closer than in previous meetings, but Toomey and the reigning champs will not be denied, and will move on to the title game on Saturday.