Tom Palleschi’s return to the court was huge for the Jumbos. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Season Record: 13-12 (6-4), lost to Amherst in NESCAC Quarterfinals
When our dear forefathers, Damon Hatheway and Jeff Hetzel, put together their preseason predictions, they put Tufts as their #1 team citing the oodles of talent on the roster. The Jumbos certainly didn’t look like the best team in the conference when they started the season 2-7 against a tough schedule. Then suddenly, when the conference season began, Tufts turned into the team Damon and Jeff thought they would be. They blew out Middlebury and Amherst before going on the road and handing Trinity their only conference loss even though the Jumbos made only one three pointer all game. Tarik Smith ’17 became unstoppable for defenses during this stretch. Tom Palleschi ’17 and Hunter Sabety ’17 were coexisting in the middle. Then Smith started to come back to earth, and Sabety suffered a knee injury. The Jumbos managed to beat Colby in the final weekend to secure a home playoff game, but they ran into a buzzsaw in the quarterfinals.
So how good of a team was Tufts really? They were certainly better than their 13-12 record would indicate. It took a long time to figure out how all the pieces fell together for them, but once Coach Bob Sheldon shuffled the starting lineup, this was one of the better teams in the NESCAC. However, the injury to Sabety made any type of NESCAC tournament run out of the question. Damon and Jeff might have simply been a year early in their prediction. Ben Ferris ’15 is the only contributor who graduates, and the Jumbos have a lot of other talented perimeter players like Vincent Pace ’18 to replace him.
High Point: 58-55 win at Trinity Saturday, January 17
The Jumbos were the best team in the NESCAC for the first two weeks of conference season. This win over Trinity, the Bantams only loss in conference play, came the day after Tufts absolutely rolled Amherst 80-53 at LeFrak. The game against Trinity was a low-scoring, hard-fought affair that was won on an elbow jumper by Palleschi with 13 seconds left. The victory lifted Tufts to 3-0 in the NESCAC, and the Jumbos were the only team still undefeated in league play. Though they are not traditionally known for their defense, Tufts held Middlebury, Amherst and Trinity to an average of 57.0 PPG over those three games. Tufts finished 3-4 the rest of the way, but their potential was clear for that stretch.
MVP: Forward Tom Palleschi ’17
First of all, Hunter Sabety ’17 would have won this if he had remained healthy, but it is impossible to give it to him since he only played in 60 percent of Tufts’ games. Palleschi’s story is well known, and he truly overcame a lot just to get back on the court. That he returned and ended the year playing some of his best basketball is just another statement about his personal strength and will. Palleschi finished the NESCAC conference season with 13.9 PPG. Along with Chris Hudnut ’16, he has the most diverse offensive game in the league, capable of hitting shots from 15 feet or using his footwork in the lane to get easy buckets. He also was a terror in the paint averaging 2.4 BPG, the most of anybody in the NESCAC. Palleschi will likely spend much of the offseason extending his range out to the three point line in order to help Tufts have better spacing for next season. Another year removed from surgery, he should be even better in 2015-2016.
Player to Watch: Small Forward Stephen Haladyna ’16
Dominating the paint is great, but it is hard to win without good shooting from outside, especially because that shooting opens things up on the interior. A big reason for the Jumbos’ early season struggles was they couldn’t shoot as they made the least amount of threes of any NESCAC team out of conference. Haladyna was supposed to be a leading shooter for Tufts, but he finished the season shooting an abysmal 23.6 percent from deep . Yet he actually shot 37.5 percent from three in conference play. The odds of him shooting such a low percentage overall again next season are slimmer than the chances that he is at least a respectable shooter. After all, he did shoot 36.2 percent from three as a sophomore. A bounce back season for Haladyna will give Tufts the balance they need on the offensive end.
How much of an impact can the uber-talented David George ’17 make in this weekend’s NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup? (Courtesy of Megan Robertson/Amherst College Office of Communications)
Three time defending NESCAC Tournament champion Amherst hits the road in a quarterfinal matchup for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Jumbos are playing in the #4 vs. #5 game for the fourth time in five years, and for the third time as the fourth seed. Amherst blew a chance to jump up to the second seed by getting torched by Middlebury last Sunday, and Tufts went 1-1 last weekend, the lose coming in a three-point defeat on the road at Bowdoin.
Last time they played: 80-53 Tufts
The two squads last met in the second weekend of NESCAC play, and before we go any further, let’s first acknowledge the fact that this game has the potential to be COMPLETELY different from the first tilt. Back on January 16, when Tufts dominated then #25 Amherst 80-53 at LeFrak, a couple of things were different. Tufts was still an underdog, and at that time occupied the final spot in our Power Rankings. Nowadays the Jumbos come into the game playing much better ball and with a winning record. Point guard Tarik Smith ’17 was just beginning his transformation into dynamic scoring threat off the bench, and was in the midst of probably the best shooting stretch of his life. In 13 games since being removed from the starting five, Smith has averaged 13.8 PPG, as opposed to 6.0 PPG as a starter. Forward Connor Green ’16 hadn’t really gotten rolling yet. Since then he has scored 19 points or more six times in 10 games, and is coming off possibly his most impressive offensive performance of the season in his last game at Middlebury. Hunter Sabety ’17, even though he was ineffective on the boards, was his usual offensive presence inside offensively, tallying 14 points on 7-10 shooting, and defensively he had four blocks. It’s unclear whether Sabety, who’s been out since January 24 with a knee injury, will be able to take the floor on Saturday. Even if he does, what kind of shape will he be in? Jayde Dawson ’18 was still starting at point guard for Amherst. Reid Berman ’17 has since taken over and facilitated exceptionally well to the Amherst scorers.
The Lord Jeffs never held a lead in the last game between these two teams. The biggest issue was that Amherst simply didn’t shoot well, and Tufts was hot all game long. The Jeffs’ starters went just 7-28 (25 percent) from the field, and Jeff Racy ’17 was the only Amherst player who one could say had even a decent game offensively. Meanwhile, the Jumbos shot better than 50 percent from deep and 49.1 percent from the field, numbers well above what Tufts can usually do and below what Amherst usually allows, so expect some regression to the mean this time around.
Tufts X-factor: Forward Tom Palleschi ’17
Tom Palleschi ’17 will have to play big against Amherst’s post presence David George.
As mentioned above, Sabety’s status is seriously in question. According to this Tufts Daily article, he has been cleared to return as of Tuesday, but it is unclear if he will play still. When healthy and at his best, Sabety is one of the most talented (and productive) players in the NESCAC. In his absence, tri-captain Tom Palleschi ’17 has emerged to make good on the promise he showed as a freshman two seasons ago. If Palleschi is alone in the front court he will have a tough time dealing with David George ’17, so the outcome of that battle could significantly impact the outcome of the game. Since January 24, Palleschi has taken on a much more of the offensive burden and is tallying 15.5 points per game on 47.2 percent (50-106) shooting, 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. Tufts needs that kind of production and more from the lefty if they are going to dispose of Amherst once again. But, if the Jumbos can throw the Twin Towers out against a shallow Amherst front court then Tufts will have a significant advantage in this game.
Hunter Sabety ’17 is one of the NESCAC’s most feared player on either side of the court – but will he even be active against Amherst? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Since losing Sabety in January, Tufts has gone 5-3. The wins have come against Connecticut College (7-16), Hamilton (14-10), Colby (13-11), UMass-Dartmouth (12-12) and Fitchburg St. (14-10). Tufts has one of the strongest strength of schedules in the Northeast according to the NCAA Regional Rankings, but none of their recent wins have come against stiff competition.
Amherst X-factor: Three-point Shooting
The biggest contributors to the Lord Jeffs’ long range game are Racy and Green. Racy is a pure shooter, who not long ago set the Amherst College record with 10 three pointers made in one game when he went 10-14 from deep off of the bench in a win over Conn. College. Green, meanwhile, shoots just under 40 percent from deep and has knocked down at least six three pointers in half of his last six games. In the Jeffs’ six losses this year, they have shot just 42-127 (33.1 percent) from deep, but they are a 37.0 percent shooting team on the season from three-point range. Amherst has attempted the second most three pointers in the NESCAC this season, and since they lack much of a scoring presence inside (though we’ve seen George turn it on for short spurts in the past), this team relies on making outside shots to stay in the game.
Three Questions
1. Who guards Connor Green?
There is a distinct possibility that Tufts plays zone to slow down Green as that was the defense they used Saturday against Bowdoin. However, if they go man, the honor will likely go to Ben Ferris ’15. Palleschi will likely be locked up with George down low, and if Sabety is active he could take on George while Palleschi slides over to cover Jacob Nabatoff ’17, who can take the ball away from the basket more than George can. Smith will probably come off the bench as he has been for awhile now but will still see most of the minutes defensively against Berman and Dawson. So either Ferris or Stephen Haladyna ’16 are the only ones left to match up with Green. Ferris has better strength than Haladyna, something that is necessary against the multi-faceted Green. This will be a tall order for whomever draws Green.
2. What does Tufts do when the shots stop falling?
As mentioned above, the Jumbos made better than one out of every two shots they took from beyond the arch last time these teams played, but they are a 31.5 percent three point shooting team on the season. So if they are forced to find other ways to score, they have two options. Smith will have to penetrate and dish to open shooters as well as his big men. Smith has the quickness advantage over both Berman and Dawson, so his driving ability will be key. Secondly, they will need to work inside-out at times. Amherst can throw another big body down there besides George in Eric Conklin ’17, but Conklin has much less experience than George and the Jeffs give up a lot on the offensive end with him on the floor. Whoever gets the ball with their back to the basket and Conklin on him will have to make plays either by scoring or drawing a double team and dishing.
3. Can David George make an impact on offense?
Frankly, George has been disappointing offensively this season. He’s made a moderate improvement in scoring, up from 11.2 points per 40 minutes to 16.1 in that regard, but there is so much more potential there. Sticking with the rate statistics, George had 4.1 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes in 2013-14, and this season has barely raised that number to 5.2 per 40 minutes. His field goal percentage has actually gotten slightly worse this season. George has made some improvements but with his size and athleticism he still has a lot of room to grow on offense. We mentioned above that Racy and Green from deep could be the X-factors that helps Amherst win this game, but over the course of the whole tournament it could be George that plays the biggest role if Amherst is to win its fourth straight NESCAC title.
What to Expect
Nothing close to last what happened last game. If this game is decided by more than 10 points I would be shocked. I do hope that Sabety can get on the floor, because it creates a lot more intrigue and he is fun to watch. If he does, for Tufts the question will be how quickly Sabety can shake off the rust and mesh well with Palleschi inside. Expect Smith to have some success attacking the lane off of the dribble, and a big game from Green on the other end. Despite the letdown last Sunday at Middlebury, Amherst still has arguably the best defense in the NESCAC and won’t allow Tufts to get near 80 points again, but I feel as though the Jumbos match up well with the Lord Jeffs. It will all come down to Tufts’ front court play. I’m expecting Sabety to see the court, but he won’t be 100 percent and his impact won’t be enough to bring home the victory. Lastly, the Amherst players know how to win and I’m sure that in their minds expect to return to the NCAA tournament, and the Lord Jeffs hold the advantage in the coaching department (just ask the Amherst broadcast team).
If you think there is a D3 head coach in the country who is better than Dave Hixon, then you might be an idiot.
What a weekend in the NESCAC. Could you have asked for a better first night of contests? Of the five games played on Friday night, four were decided by six points or less. Williams-Trinity went into double OT. A missed call by refs in Lewiston helped Bates to the win over Middlebury. Wesleyan had three shots from deep in the final seconds to tie the game against Colby but missed all of its attempts. And Connor Green ’16 came out of hibernation to lead Amherst to a victory over Hamilton, aided by the best offensive night of David George’s ’17 young career. The second round of conference games was only slightly less exhilarating, as Williams and Amherst played yet another classic and Tufts pulled a major upset over the suddenly suspect Middlebury Panthers. Suffice to say, Week 1 of the NESCAC season did not disappoint.
Stock Up
1. David George ’17
The Amherst big man is respected around the league for his defense, but he turned up his offensive game this weekend, scoring 29 points against Hamilton and 18 against Amherst, his highest totals of the season (the latter matching an 18-point performance in late December). George was 16-20 (80 percent) from the field and 15-19 (78.9 percent) from the stripe. Amherst is already one of the highest-scoring teams in the NESCAC. If George can be a consistent weapon on the offensive end while still maintaining his level of play on defense, Amherst will be dangerous and we could be witnessing the maturation of a future NESCAC POY candidate.
2. Colby Mules
Sure, they only beat the Wesleyan Cardinals by two and their nine-point win over the 7-6 Conn College Camels isn’t all that impressive, but for a team that came into the weekend barely over .500 getting to Monday with a 2-0 conference record is all one could ask for. This is a team with a lot of potential, which we’ve talked about before. For the second year in a row Coach Damien Strahorn is leaning heavily on his 2016 class, and they all played great this weekend. Last year the Mules could make the excuse that they were still young, but now that the core of this team is in its third year, they need to start getting the results. Maybe this was the first step towards accomplishing that.
3. Tufts’ Guard Play
We raved about the Tufts’ front court before the season started, but with Hunter Sabety ’16 out yesterday the Jumbos dominated Middlebury. Coach Bob Sheldon shook up the starting lineup, inserting Drew Madsen ’16, Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18, and no one responded better than the usual starting point guard, Tarik Smith ’17. Smith went 5-7 from the field, 2-2 from deep and 8-8 from the line for 20 points, netted two steals and only turned the ball over twice in 28 minutes. Against one of the NESCAC’s best one-on-one defensive guards in Jake Brown ’17, Smith was able to penetrate and cause havoc. Ben Ferris ’15, who just hasn’t been his old self on offense this year, had eight points, but they all seemed to come at big moments. Newcomer Vinny Pace ’18 showed some impressive touch inside and creative moves as he added eight points, and Stephen Haladyna ’16, another usual starter relegated to the bench, chipped in 11 points in his second-best shooting night of the year, percentage-wise. Tufts is still 5-7 overall, but 1-0 in the games that count the most.
Stock Down
1. Middlebury Panthers
You had to see this one coming. A few days after we gave them the top spot in our composite power rankings, they go and do something like this, losing a tight game to Bates and them getting blown out on Sunday against Tufts. As was noted on Twitter, basically the entire Middlebury roster was fairly ill on Friday night, so much so that there were rumors (the accuracy of which we will never know) that the game might be moved to another date, so props to them for gutting it out and making it a close game, but I don’t think we can say that, two days later, sickness was the reason that the Jumbos stomped them by 17 points. I don’t see this weekend as being indicative of a problem in the future, and I still think Middlebury can and will compete for a NESCAC title. But, I would be concerned that some of the negative attitude that seemed to creep up on the Panthers last season could resurface. I hope I’m wrong.
2. John Swords ’15
Maybe a bit of a surprising pick, because Swords certainly didn’t play badly this weekend, but as I noted in the power ranks last week, Bowdoin needs Swords to be a force if they are going to make it back to the NCAA tournament, and 17 points in 60 minutes of play isn’t going to cut it. Swords was pretty much his typical self in the rebounding and blocks categories, and still discourages anyone from setting foot in the paint with the ball, but I was banking on Swords elevating his game for the NESCAC season. Consider this a challenge, Mr. Swords.
3. Jayde Dawson ’18
The Fairleigh-Dickinson transfer came to Amherst with big expectations at the beginning of the season, and at this point we can probably assume that those expectations were a little bit too much to put on Dawson right away. After a couple nice games in a row, Dawson got one point, two rebound and zero assists in just 16 minutes in the Lord Jeffs’ biggest game of the season against rival Williams. Much like Michigan-Ohio State, in order to be one of the greats at Amherst, you have to beat Williams, and it seems like Dawson wilted under the bright lights. But, if last year was any indication, there’s a good chance that these teams meet again before the season is over, so Dawson should get a shot at redemption.
Hunter Merryman ’15 and Middlebury are the cream of the crop, for now. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
As NESCAC season swiftly approaches tonight, we decided to get some of our staff members involved in this week’s power rankings. Everyone should feel pretty comfortable about the top team, but after that there was a huge amount of disagreement through the middle of the ranks which, I believe, is a testament to the depth in the league this season. On the other hand, it is probably also a result of a lot of impressive records against mediocre competition. That being said, the NESCAC continues to be one of the best Division-III hoops leagues in the nation, and we don’t see that changing any time soon.
Team
Average
AD
SM
AL
JM
PL
Midd
1.4
2
2
1
1
1
Amherst
2.6
1
1
4
5
2
Bates
3.4
6
3
3
2
3
Williams
4.2
3
6
2
4
6
Trinity
5.2
5
4
7
6
4
Wesleyan
5.6
4
5
5
7
7
Bowdoin
6.8
9
8
6
3
8
Hamilton
7.4
7
7
9
9
5
Colby
8.6
8
10
8
8
9
Conn
10
10
9
11
10
10
Tufts
10.8
11
11
10
11
11
(Contributors to the rankings: AD = Adam Dulsky; SM = Sean Meekins; AL = Adam Lamont; PL = Pete Lindholm)
1. Middlebury (9-0)
Adam, Pete, and I agree that the Panthers appear to be the class of the ‘CAC this season. Has this team returned to the level that the program was at from 2008-2013 when it lost 18 games over the course of five seasons? Probably not. I think that if Ryan Sharry, Andrew Locke, Nolan Thompson and the rest of the 2010-11 squad walked into Pepin in their prime they would dispatch the current edition of the Panthers with relative ease. But this team is no pushover, and in what appears to be a slightly down year for the usual suspects in Amherst and Williams, Middlebury could just grab its third NESCAC title.
For me personally, this ranking was less about the 9-0 record than the fact that I’ve felt since the preseason that this was a championship-worthy roster, and with the promising early season play of a few youngsters and the recent return of Matt Daley ’16, this team is only getting stronger.
2. Amherst (8-2)
Amherst and Williams will always gain respect just based on the name, but this team looks pretty good on the floor in its own right. In watching Amherst back in early December, we had some concerns about their perimeter defense.
Story in this one early is that Brandeis is having no trouble penetrating in one-on-one situations.
Amherst is still allowing too many points per game (eighth in the NESCAC with 67.2), but NESCAC Rookie of the Year candidate Johnny McCarthy ’18 is a defensive force, leading the NESCAC in steals per game to date, and David George ’17 is still fantastic at discouraging points at the rim, so it’s curious that the Lord Jeffs have allowed so many points. What they are great at, though, is scoring. When they match up with our number one team, Middlebury, it will be a must-watch just for the ability of everyone involved to put the ball in the hoop.
3. Bates (9-2)
I like Bates more than most at this point in the season. Am I just jumping on the hype train? Maybe. But it seems like senior leader Graham Safford ’15 has elevated his game both on the stat sheet and in terms of his intangibles, and has really become a Kizel/Toomey type of transcendent player. In terms of numbers, he has improved on his field goal and three point percentages while also racking up almost two more assists per game. I think Safford leads the Bobcats deep into the NESCAC tournament.
4. Williams (9-3)
I know Ephs’ fans are sick of hearing it, but imagine if they still had Duncan Robinson. That would be scary. Even without Robinson, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Dan Wohl ’15 are just filling it up. Both are above 19.0 points per game. Rooke-Ley is like Ray Allen from the line right now, which you should read more about here. Wohl is not only one of the league’s best sharp shooters, but the 6’6″ guard/forward leads the league in defensive rebounds. The one thing this team lacks is depth, as six players chew up most of the minutes for first-year coach Kevin App. Perhaps to say that the team lacks depth is the wrong way to word it, because a lot of those bench guys could get big minutes elsewhere around the league, but it could cause a problem if one of the Ephs’ stars were to go down with an injury because his replacement would lack experience. Take Rooke-Ley for example, who was only able to play 10 minutes in Williams’ last game against Endicott because of a minor injury. Unfortunately, Rooke-Ley has a long injury history at Williams, so we have to hope that nothing more serious materializes for the senior.
5. Trinity (10-2)
With the Bantams it comes down to whether or not you believe that this uptick in scoring is for real, or if they will return to their anemic offensive ways once the competition stiffens up. I think they will regress some, but Jaquann Starks ’16 is a much better offensive player than he was last year, as is Shay Ajayi ’16, someone I thought could break out for the Bantams before the season began. I think this middle of the pack prediction is pretty accurate, and I could see them stealing a game in the NESCAC tournament on the road.
6. Wesleyan (10-2)
As we mentioned a few days ago, Wesleyan is off to an historic start to the season.
ICYMI: Wesleyan is 10-2, only the 10th time in 113 seasons that the Cardinals have had 10 wins and less than 3 losses
Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 has become less of a distributor and more of a scorer, leading the Cardinals in points per game. He and Jack Mackey ’16 make for a scary three-point duo. Rashid Epps ’16 has continued his maturation, averaging nearly a double-double so far this season, and Joseph Kuo ’17 is a force inside, turning away more than one shot per game. There’s a lot of experience on this roster, so even though this level of success is new to this Cardinals’ roster, they should be able to stay competitive throughout conference play.
7. Bowdoin (8-3)
I ranked Bowdoin much higher than the rest of the crowd. Even Lamont, a Polar Bear himself, had Bowdoin down a few notches more than I did. But this is a team with NCAA tournament experience, and I think the presence of John Swords’15 gives them a chance to win any game, on top of the continued strong play of point guard Bryan Hurley’15, who I think will continue to get better and more comfortable as he gets further away from the knee surgery that kept him out for most of last season.
8. Hamilton (10-2)
Hamilton fans aren’t going to like this one. The Continentals are 10-2 and we have them ranked eighth? Well the fact of the matter is that as much as we’ve talked about soft early season schedules for NESCAC teams this year, Hamilton might take the cake. Their best win came at home by just four points to 8-5 Lycoming. Joseph Lin ’15, Peter Kazickas ’15 and Ajani Santos ’16 have all taken huge steps forward this season, but there’s not much production coming after the starting five.
9. Colby (7-5)
It will hurt me if this team fails to make the playoffs, both because they are fun to watch and I have a few personal connections to the team. But they just don’t play any defense, which is key in conference play. Opponents are shooting 41.5 percent from the floor against the Mules, and Colby has the second-worst rebounding margin in the NESCAC. They really miss power forward Patrick Stewart ’16 and the defensive presence he helped bring besides Chris Hudnut ’16. If they can’t remedy these issues then they can say good bye to their chances of playing into late February.
10. Conn College (7-4)
Conn has actually bounced back well statistically from the graduation of Matt Vadas ’14, as the Camels are averaging 71.9 points per game, actually up from last year’s 69.3 points per game. But those points aren’t coming efficiently at all, as Conn has the league’s worst shooting percentage. But be patient Camels fans. There are five first years getting double digit minutes, the team’s best player, Zuri Pavlin ’17, is but a sophomore, and Bryan Gross ’15, currently getting under 10 minutes per game, is the only senior on the roster. So there will be better times ahead.
11. Tufts (4-7)
What can we say about the Jumbos this season? Despite so much potential before the year began, exactly what we feared might happen has come to fruition. Like in years past, Tufts just can’t put the pieces together. Last year it was injuries to Tom Palleschi ’17 and Ben Ferris ’15. This year it’s simply ineffectiveness. Guys that formerly were money from beyond the arc have completely lost the ability to hit threes, Ferris looks like a shell of his Rookie of the Year Award-winning self, Palleschi is still shaking off the rust and it appears that coach Bob Sheldon can’t find a lineup he likes because almost the entire roster is getting into most games. The lone bright spot is the continued production of Hunter Sabety ’17. With him, Palleschi and guards Tarik Smith ’17, Stephen Haladyna ’16 and Vinny Pace ’18 back for 2015-16, the story will be the same next season. Loads of potential, but when will it come together for Tufts?
Graham Safford ’15 notched his 1,000th career point in a big win over the Brandeis Judges on Tuesday night. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen and Bates College)
In the final tuneup for many teams before conference play begins on Friday, NESCAC teams aced every test against a tough slate of teams on Tuesday night. The biggest wins were road victories by Amherst and Middlebury over #21 Eastern Connecticut State and Plattsburgh State, respectively. Overall, the league went 7-0, showcasing the depth and quality of middle tier teams like Colby and Bates. Both Maine schools won close games against quality teams (Colby beat #23 Husson and Bates vanquished Brandeis). In 2013-2014 the NESCAC went 2-3 when the same slate of teams met, so the league now enters conference play with fewer cumulative losses than last season. Here are a couple of other quick thoughts to get you through Wednesday.
1. We might have no more 1,000 point scorers in the graduating class: Graham Safford ’15 (Bates) and Dan Wohl ’15 (Williams) crossed the mark earlier this week, but they might be the only two members of the 2015 class to reach that mark. Below are some other players with a chance to top 1,000 points for their careers. Keep in mind that the games remaining and necessary PPG totals do not include postseason games.
Keegan Pieri ’15 (Bowdoin) – 779 points. 13 games remaining. Must average 17 PPG. Currently averaging 13.0 PPG.
John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin) – 725 points. 13 games remaining. Must average 21.2 PPG. Currently averaging 12.8 PPG.
Ben Ferris ’15 (Tufts) – 802 points. 14 games remaining. Must average 14.1 PPG. Currently averaging 5.8 PPG.
Hunter Merryman ’15 (Midd) – 759 points. 15 games remaining. Must average 16.1 PPG. Currently averaging 16.1 PPG.
Dylan Sinnickson ’15 (Midd) – 635 points. 15 games remaining. Must average 24.3 PPG. Currently averaging 19.1 PPG.
Though Ferris is the closest, he is averaging only 5.8 PPG this season and appears to be a different player than he was earlier in his career, possibly because of cumulative injuries. Merryman is probably the best bet to make it to 1,000 because he is averaging exactly 16.1 PPG this season, though if Middlebury makes a deep run in the postseason don’t count out Sinnickson. He can score from anywhere. The Bowdoin duo, however, is a longshot to make it to 1,000.
If Safford and Wohl are the only ones who do make it, the 2015 class would pale in comparison to the 2014 class that saw, by our count, at least five players score 1,000. Aaron Toomey ’14 (Amherst), Joey Kizel ’14 (Middlebury), Matt Vadas ’14 (Conn College), Taylor Epley ’14 (Williams) and Michael Mayer ’14 (Williams) all certainly eclipsed the mark.
2. Middlebury is best when they play fast: The Panthers are a weird team. Dylan Sinnickson ’15, at 6’5″, is far and away their best rebounder. His 12.1 boards per game ranks fifth in the nation. Hunter Merryman ’15 is the best shooter on the team but is also one of the biggest players on the roster. Before yesterday’s game (when Merryman went 0-5 from deep), the sharpshooter ranked fifth in the nation in three-point percentage. Their pieces fit best when they push the pace. Jake Brown ’17 is arguably the fastest player in the NESCAC and he has a very good 2.6 assist/turnover ratio. He causes havoc when he pushes it and can then kick it out to Merryman or Matt St. Amour ’17. In the halfcourt the Panthers often seem to be tentative and they lack an offensive post presence. Even as big man Matt Daley ’16 works his way back into the rotation after suffering a stress fracture, Middlebury should be able to continue to run because Daley is very good at running the floor for a center, and freshman Nick Tarantino ’18 has shown a similar ability to run and stretch the floor as a big man. Plattsburgh State was the best team Middlebury has played yet and the Panthers were resilient whenever Plattsburgh tried to make a run in the second half. Their trip to Lewiston to play Bates is the best matchup on the opening night of NESCAC play, especially given how last year’s match up ended in heartbreak for the Panthers. You can see Safford’s game-winning trey at the 1:30 mark in this video.
3. The Rookie of the Year race is over.
Even though conference play has not started, you can pretty much give Johnny McCarthy the NESCAC Rookie of the Year award.
Johnny McCarthy ’18 is really freaking good at basketball, folks. He is the best and most indispensable player on Amherst right now and he has an argument that he is performing at an All-NESCAC level. He leads Amherst in minutes per game with 32.3, the fourth highest in the league. He is second on Amherst with 12.8 PPG and has scored in double digits in each of the past four games. Where McCarthy really shines is on the defensive end. He uses his exemplary length to lead the NESCAC with 2.7 steals per game. Last night against Eastern Connecticut he played 38 minutes and matched up defensively for most of the game with Trachone Preston ’16 who came in averaging 20.2 points per game. McCarthy held Preston to 11 points on 5-20 shooting. In an overall weak freshman class, McCarthy is a stud.
4. Trinity is flying under the radar.
We say this almost literally because last night Trinity played a game that was not even on the NESCAC.com schedule. Only a notice from Trinity sports alerted us to the fact that they actually were playing against Manahattanville. After an easy win, the Bantams carry an eight game winning streak, the second longest streak after Middlebury, into conference play, but they have done so without registering any notable wins. Their formula is the same: beat teams up on defense, control the boards, and grind out points with Shay Ajayi ’16 and Jaquann Starks ’15. Whether they will be able to score enough against NESCAC teams is their biggest question. Trinity as a team is averaging a league worst 11.7 assists per game while it turns the ball over 15.7 times a game for a terrible 0.75 assist/turnover ratio. Unless they can improve on that, their eight game win streak will end Friday against Williams.
5. Conference play is going to be tons of fun: Usually in the NESCAC there is one or two signature games every weekend surrounded by mostly insignificant games. That is not the case at all this year. Viewing NESCAC games will be like the first weekend of March Madness where you are frantically switching between games trying not to miss anything crazy. Parity appears to be a very real thing. The top teams are worse, the middle teams are better, the bottom only has a couple of teams in it. Right now more than half a dozen teams are looking around the NESCAC landscape and thinking, ‘Why not us?’ Every team enters the conference season with some major question mark either related to personnel or lack of results on the court. The only thing that the first couple of months of the season have told us is that we don’t know what is going to happen next.
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 talking to Coach Kevin App (courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Now that a full week of games is in the books, we can step back a little bit and dive into some of the early trends emerging. The first game between NESCAC teams happened over the weekend. If Williams’ overtime victory over Wesleyan was any indication, then the NESCAC regular season should be as wide-open as we are hoping.
A major theme is how the sophomore class is asserting themselves as the major playmakers around the league. From players like Zuri Pavlin ’17 and Harry Rafferty ’17 who were already starters from day one to others like Mike Greenman ’17 and Joseph Kuo ’17 who are delivering with increased playing time, sophomores are difference-makers on almost every team in the NESCAC.
Stock Up
Center David George ’17 (Amherst): The guard play for the Jeffs has been a little uneven, but George has delivered on the promise he showed down the stretch of 2013 to help keep Amherst undefeated. The sophomore’s 7.7 rebounds per game, of which 3.7 are offensive rebounds, are no surprise given his size and athleticism. His offensive game, while still undeniably still somewhat underdeveloped, is unbelievably efficient. He is averaging 13.7 points per game on 75% shooting, the second highest percentage in the NESCAC behind John Swords ’15. Unlike last year when George was often surrounded by shooters on the court, Amherst is playing with two bigs most of the time. He is working with less space to work with but is having no problems scoring with ease. Having two big men in the game at once is also a big reason why Amherst has a rebounding margin of +20 so far.
Guard Jake Brown ’17 (Middlebury): Last year Brown established himself as a dogged defender and player capable of getting into the lane. This year he is going full Rondo as a table-setter for the talented Middlebury wings. He leads the league with 6.5 assists per game despite playing less than 24 minutes a game because Middlebury has been involved in a few blowouts already. He is able to get into the lane with ease and kick it out to Matt St. Amour ’17 or find a cutting Dylan Sinnickson ’15. Though he isn’t scoring much, he showed himself capable of filling Joey Kizel’s role of hitting big shots at the end of games when he hit the go ahead jumper with 30 seconds left against Clark yesterday. Brown will likely play less than 30 minutes a game because of the presence of talented youngster Jack Daly ’18. That should allow him to continue his frenetic pace as he leads the Middlebury fast break game.
Guard Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 (Williams): The Ephs have struggled out of the gate, but there have been some bright spots so far. The fact that Rooke-Ley has become absolutely locked in as a shooter is one of the brightest. In a blowout of Johnston State, he set a Williams’ record by going 12-15 from beyond the three point line. He did not even attempt another shot from the field or a foul shot. Rumors have it he actually did not go inside of the three point line on offense all game (not actually). What makes the Johnston State game even more impressive is that two days before he went 0-9 from the field, including 0-7 from deep. He was able to fight through a couple of tough games at the beginning of the year before hitting his stride. Yet perhaps the best statistic Rooke-Ley has going so far is his free throw shooting. He is a perfect 28 for 28 from the stripe through four games. No other player has made more than 22 free throws and only one player has even attempted more than 28. That is crazy.
Stock Down
Tufts’ Shooting: The return of Tom Palleschi ’16 made Jumbo fans ecstatic over the idea of him teaming with Hunter Sabety ’17 as an unstoppable duo inside. The early returns for Tufts have been subpar, but that is not actually because of any problems in the interior. The Tufts offense is struggling because there is not enough shooting right now. The Jumbos are shooting 25.8% from three, the second lowest percentage in the conference. Ben Ferris ’15, Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Stephn Haladyna ’16 were supposed to supply most of the outside shooting. And while Spadaford has hit half of his threes through two games, Ferris and Haladyna are both below 25%. It gets even worse when you combine that with the Jumbos hitting less than 60% of their free throws.
Bates’ Depth: The Bobcats have gotten off to a great start beating two NCAA tournament teams from 2013 on their way to a 3-0 start. The reasons for the quick start are pretty simple. Mike Boornazian ’16 and Graham Safford ’15 are the best backcourt in the NESCAC and have played great so far. Yet, Bates might be overly reliant on those two players. They account for 51.6% of the scoring, 36.8% of the rebounding, and 65.8% of the assists overall for Bates. Throw in center Marcus Delpeche ’17, enjoying an uptick of production this season, into that equation and the numbers become even more ridiculous: 65% scoring, 56% rebounding, and 77% assists. A big reason for Bates slumping down the stretch was because Safford could not continue his high level of play down the stretch. Bates needs other players to step up in order to maintain better balance and not be overly reliant on the play of a few players.
Editor’s Note: Unlike football, team previews are being released in no particular order.
Tufts Jumbos
2013-2014 record: 13-12 (4-6 NESCAC), seventh in NESCAC, reached quarterfinals of NESCAC tournament
Head Coach: Bob Sheldon, Jr., 27th season (373-277, .574)
Starters Returning: 3
G Ben Ferris ’15
G Stephen Haladyna ’16
F Hunter Sabety ’17
Breakout Player: G Vinny Pace ’18
With three starters returning and Tom Palleschi ’17 back in the mix (more on that later), the starting lineup is fairly solidified, but Pace has the potential to make a huge impact off of the bench. The 6’5″ combo guard brings great size to the backcourt, where he could be a defensive force. His skills are a mix between that of teammates Ferris, a double-double threat, and the sharpshooter Haladyna. He will have to battle classmate Thomas Lapham ’18, a true point guard, and returner Ryan Spadaford ’16 for bench minutes, but after a little over a week of practice Pace is pushing strongly for time.
Projected Starting Five:
Tarik Smith (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
G Tarik Smith ’17
Smith has big shoes to fill with distributor Oliver Cohen ’14 gone, but he is next level quick, shoots the ball well from deep and got plenty of seasoning under his belt last year (25 games, 18.8 minutes per game). Smith will have the ball in his hands to start most possessions.
Ben Ferris (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
G Ben Ferris
Ferris, the 2011-12 NESCAC Rookie of the Year, is the undisputed leader on the floor for the Jumbos. The guard missed the first half of last season due to injury, and never got fully into the swing of things. Though he put up points and rebounds similar to what he achieved during his sophomore season, he was much less efficient from the floor. However, after undergoing hip surgery during the summer, reports are that Ferris is as healthy as ever and ready to take this team to the next level.
Stephen Haladyna (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
G Stephen Haladyna
Of the starting five, Haladyna is the best long-range shooter, and he should get plenty of open shots off of passes from the two big men. He might be the fourth option on this offense, which is a scary thought for opposing teams.
Hunter Sabety (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
F Hunter Sabety
In the majority of seasons, Sabety would have been the hands down choice for Rookie of the Year after averaging 14.8 points per game (tops on the team) on 65 percent shooting and 6.6 boards per game. Unfortunately for Tufts, the hopes of a third straight ROY honor were dashed by Duncan Robinson. Sabety presents a huge matchup problem for almost every team in the league, and had stretches of dominance in 2013-14.
Tom Palleschi (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
F Tom Palleschi
Palleschi is the Jumbos’ X-factor, as well as the biggest question mark. He brings size and double-double potential to the front court. A heart condition held the big man out last season, and it’s an amazing story that he will even be on the court again. Palleschi is 100 percent cleared to play, but head coach Bob Sheldon, Jr. estimates that he has not quite returned to his former level of play just yet. That being said, Sheldon also expects the sophomore captain to return to form and be better than ever before long.
Everything Else:
The Jumbos were a sexy pick by some to make a surprise run at the NESCAC title last season, but the squad never got healthy at the same time. Ferris missed almost half the season, Haladyna was sidelined for a handful of games, and, of course, Palleschi never saw the floor. However, if Tufts can avoid the injury bug this season then they have a shot to realize those lofty expectations.
Expect the offense to work inside out on most possessions. It will be a challenge for Palleschi and Sabety, both 6’8″ and about 240 pounds, to mesh together, but if they do then their offensive potential is sky high. Expect a lot of high-low action from the big men, and open shots for the guards. Sabety brings more athleticism to the floor than Palleschi, so he might also be employed to run the base line while Palleschi works to get position inside.
Drew Madsen ’17 will be the primary reserve big man, and the aforementioned Pace and Spadaford should see a decent amount of minutes. The scoring should be spread out fairly evenly across the board, as every player in the starting five is strong offensively.
Look for the Jumbos to get better as the year goes along, as this group builds chemistry that is just now getting the opportunity to foster.
