Tag: Jack Hickey

Two (Undefeated) Teams Enter: Amherst-Middlebury Game of the Week Preview

Game Time: 2:00 PM EST, Amherst, MA.

After a week of rather dull and predictable results, its refreshing to see this game set on the schedule as one of the remaining undefeated teams will fall. Two 3-0 records will enter and one will exit the weekend with a blemish, however, each will likely have different starting lineups at the end of the season. Both the Panthers and Mammoths lack totally healthy rosters like most teams at this point in the college football season, but they both miss key players. Coming off of easy wins for both teams, this will be Middlebury’s first real test since week one against Wesleyan and Amherst’s first test of the season.

Middlebury X-Factor: WR Jimmy Martinez ’19

Jimmy Martinez plays football a whole lot better than he takes photos

Martinez is not just another one of the many pieces that QB Jared Lebowitz ’18 has to choose from, he is also the best return man in the NESCAC. With two special teams TDs already, he is a hidden gem and potential game changer in an area that Amherst hasn’t seen much talent this season. With 11 receptions this season, his is six shy from his career total, all accumulated last season. He is averaging 51.7 yards per game in the air, including a score, and isn’t tasked with increasing his volume of catches due to the deep nature of the Midd receivers. The sky is the limit for Martinez as his unmatched speed as an All-American in the 400 meter dash gives him a big edge on both punts and kickoffs. He has only had one punt return thus far but took it to the house against Colby and is also averaging over 40 yards per return on kickoffs. He could be the one thing that Amherst won’t be able to match on Saturday and if he scores on a kick then it could be the turning point of the game.

Amherst X-Factor: Secondary

Matt Durborow ’21 leads Amherst DBs with 13 tackles

The Amherst secondary will have its hands full on Saturday as all of Middlebury’s offense will be geared towards an air assault. With youngster Charlie Ferguson ’20 and injured Diego Meritus ’19 the two tailbacks for the Panthers, they likely will stick to their specialties; namely, Jared Lebowitz and his army of young receivers. Since Lebowitz has had his way with defenses thus far, the key to stopping them will be in the hands of the Amherst secondary. John Ballard ‘20, Zach Allen ‘19, and Matt Durborow ’21 will need to be on their A game to subdue the Middlebury offense as this game is likely headed to high scores on both sides. So far, Ballard is the only one with a pick of the three, but Nate Tyrell ’19 and John Rak ’19 should also be able to help out against the Midd receivers. The secondary should have a more significant role than the linebackers as Lebowitz has deep threats as targets in Banky and Martinez. Should they be able to keep Lebowitz to under three passing TDs they should be able to score enough to overcome the visiting squad.

Everything Else:

Going to Amherst and taking on the Mammoths is a daunting task for Middlebury, but nobody is hotter than them right now. They have a win against a solid opponent already and have coasted to wins the past two weeks, not rushing Meritus back into action, and holding off on playing those with nagging injuries. Amherst, on the other hand, hasn’t seen any real challenges and have more uncertainty heading into week four. Reece Foy has been getting eased back into action for Amherst in his return from injury, and while Ollie Eberth is playing solid football in his stead, he is no POY candidate. For the Panthers, WR Maxim Bochman ’20 was a late scratch with a hamstring pull, RB Diego Meritus ‘19, the 2016 starter, is yet to play in 2017 but is eyeing a return this week, and Matt Cardew ’17 sprained his MCL against Bowdoin. Luckily for Midd, Charlie Ferguson ’21 has performed well in his extensive action lately and could share the workload with Meritus as he is eased back into action.

Regardless of who plays tailback for the Panthers, Amherst will have the edge on the ground as Jack Hickey has been off to the races so far this season. Especially interesting will be seeing how Ollie Eberth ’20 plays against a solid Midd defense and if Foy increases his work load from the last two weeks. Not to be forgotten also are Amherst’s stand out receivers James O’Reagan ’20, Bo Berluti ’19, and Craig Carmelani ’18. Berluti is off to a slow start but has talent and could have a breakout game, especially if his familiar signal caller Foy gets more snaps this week. Due to Hickey’s 8.4 yards per carry, Berluti hasn’t been needed nearly as much and neither has a significant aerial attack in the first three weeks. Essentially, Amherst has been playing with their eyes closed up to this point. It was a nice warm up for them, although that doesn’t mean they aren’t ready for this game. A home game against a team with a number of injuries is a great time to play their first tough competition. If Foy was back to 100%, I would probably take Amherst just due to their depth in all aspects of the game, but Middlebury’s big play ability gives them an edge and they won’t need to run the ball if Lebowitz turns it on. Each team has their own advantages heading into this game, but with a stronger leader under center in what looks to be a shoot out, Midd has a slight edge.

Projected Score: Middlebury 31 Amherst 28

The NESCAC Gap: Football Stock Report 10/2

Similar to last week, week 3 produced results that continue to show the polarized hierarchy that is NESCAC football. Four teams won via the blowout (Middlebury, Amherst, Tufts, Wesleyan), so only one game had any semblance of competition (Trinity toppled Williams 17-9). The abundance of blowouts, however, means that some players put up some eye-popping statistics. Jared Lebowitz ’18 continued his impressive season (28-52, 389 yards, 3 touchdowns), Amherst’s Jack Hickey ’19 rushed 13 times for 118 yards, and Hamilton’s Cole Burchill ’19 racked up 16 total tackles against a prolific Wesleyan offense. This weekend did very little to affect the NESCAC standings, but the Williams-Trinity game was low-key fascinating. Let’s get into some of the emerging storylines.

Stock Up

The ‘Rebounding’ Middlebury Offense

This seems like a storyline as old as time. Earlier this season, we wrote on how the Middlebury receiving corps had a long way to come after graduating 2 perennial studs. In the past two weeks, the Panthers have silenced those doubts in a dramatic fashion. Against Bowdoin last week, junior wideout Conrado Banky ‘19 torched the Polar Bears for 101 yards on 5 receptions, averaging 20.2 yards per catch. Tanner Contois ‘18 also added 3 deep catches that exposed the Bowdoin secondary. On Saturday against Colby, Middlebury put up 34 unanswered points, thanks in large part to 6 Panthers hauling in at least 40 receiving yards. This offensive explosion was led by Banky, who tallied 136 yards on 9 receptions, and Jimmy Martinez ’19, who ran back another punt 61 yards for a touchdown, his second of the season already. He has become the most dangerous return man in recent NESCAC memory, and also added three catches for 48 yards. Middlebury has proved that it still has plenty of weapons, and are the most dangerous offense in the league.

Conrado Banky ’19 finally exploded last week, catching 9 passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns.

Williams’s Resurgence

Despite the loss on Saturday, the Williams team had a lot of positive takeaways. The Ephs were able to put up 9 points against a daunting Trinity defense that had yet to allow a point in its first two games this season. The offense had 19 first downs, 9 more than what Trinity could muster. The Williams defense was solid too: the only points it let up were the result of turnovers, and a 46-yard field goal by one of the best kickers in NESCAC history. Though this loss was the first blemish on an otherwise perfect start to a season, I believe this game further proves that Williams is on the rise. This game, maybe more so than their two wins, should send a message to future opponents. Look for Williams to take care of business next week against a struggling Bates team.

Stock Down

Amherst Doubters

In the first three weeks of the season, Amherst has silenced all skeptics that have claimed that the Mammoths no longer belongs atop the NESCAC leaderboards. It is unclear what Reece Foy’s ‘18 role will be going forward, as he is returning from a knee injury but playing very few snaps. Regardless, QB Ollie Eberth ‘20 has filled in nicely, and he lit up Bowdoin for 254 yards on Saturday, That said, Amherst’s three impressive wins have come against the dredges of the NESCAC (Bates, Hamilton, Bowdoin). Amherst will be tested in the next few weeks, and a win next weekend against the formidable Middlebury team will further prove that the Mammoths are still a force to be reckoned with.

Ollie Eberth’20 has grabbed the reins at Amherst and will not let them go.

Competitive Games

The objective of any professional league should be to create competitive balance among its teams, so as to keep all fans engaged and to grow the league’s brand. That being said, it’s a good thing the NESCAC isn’t a professional league. None of the games in week 3 were particularly close, and, as a desperate fan of Bowdoin football, this season has been a struggle. The prevalent storyline this season has been Amherst, Middlebury, and Trinity beating up on the rest of the league, while Bates, Bowdoin, Colby, and Hamilton have fruitlessly tried to get into the win column. As a fan of the sport, it would be nice to see some weekly unpredictability in these games, but that just hasn’t happened yet. It’s been most interesting to follow Williams’s strong start to the season, and to watch some individual players put on showcases week after week. Going forward, though, I hope to see a little less polarization, and a little more parity.

Special Editor’s Stock Down: Trinity’s Undefeated Chances

I know this is one of the needlessly alarmist “hot takes” that has made sports talk shows totally unlistenable (except for Shannon Sharpe on Undisputed.) But I didn’t think I’d get to write anything about Trinity other than “they’re the best” all season, so hear me out. Trinity had nine fewer first downs than Williams that weekend, and couldn’t generate any offense that didn’t come off of turnovers by a jittery, young Eph offense. Williams stuffed the running game, keeping Max Chipouras ’19 to 2.8 yards per carry, and locked up the receivers, keeping Sonny Puzzo ’18 to 163 yards. This says a great deal about Williams’ defense; it may well be the best in the league, and they have a real chance of finishing 6-2 or even 7-1. And of course, the Bantams still won, and used their own elite defense to make huge plays at the right time. But the Ephs laid down a formula to slay Trinity. Stuff the run and force Puzzo to make tough throws to a depleted receiving core (that is Trinity’s greatest weakness, they don’t have an elite weapon in the passing game.) If a team with a more consistent offense (like Middlebury or Wesleyan) can follow this defensive formula, this season could get a lot more interesting.

Familiar Territory: Week 2 Football Power Rankings

I may have hopped on the Hamilton football bandwagon a little too quickly, and now we find ourselves in a familiar NESCAC football picture. While each team looks to have settled in to a more classic position early on in the standings, it’s hard not to lament at what could have been if there were some upsets in week two. What we see now is Trinity’s continuing reign, with Middlebury, Amherst, and Tufts hot on the Bantams’ feathers. While Williams is 2-0 after an 0-8 season in 2016, they still have much to prove to be included in the title hunt. With week three around the corner, here is where each squad stands:

1: Trinity
Two games and two dominant results. The Bantam defense is unstoppable at the moment, not allowing points heading into October. After a 31-0 mark at the end of the first quarter, they cruised to victory as Sonny Puzzo ’18, Max Chipouras ’18, and Dominique Seagers ’18 had huge days. Seagers had a pick-six and a tackle for a loss. Even their special teams were perfect as kicker Eric Sachse ’19 made his only field goal attempt and John Spears returned a punt 51 yards to the Bates 16 yard line, leading to a Chipouras TD. An 11 game win streak, 86-0 aggregate season score, and all three prongs of the game in full force lead to a sure fire top ranking here.

Dakota Foster rises up to make a grab against Bates in week 2.

2: Middlebury
Middlebury stands out on offense right now. QB Jared Lebowitz ’18 is off looking for more TD records as he found the end zone four more times in week two, finding four different receivers in the process. Breakout WR Maxim Bockman ’20, Conrado Banky ’19, Max Rye ’20, and Jimmy Connell ’21  all had reason to celebrate, while Tanner Contois ’18 and Jimmy Martinez ’19 also had solid days. Their receiving depth is noteworthy, and although Diego Meritus ’19 was still out, he should be coming back soon. In his stead, Senior Matt Cardew ’18 shined in his biggest college game, running for 74 yards and a TD, looking like a solid option out of the backfield. They have an easy game against Colby in week three at home, and if Meritus is back it would be a good time to ease him into action and see what he can do alongside Cardew.

3: Amherst
Reece Foy ’18 is back after missing all of 2016. That’s big news for Mammoth fans as he brought a win along with him. While Amherst eased him in to action, he still ran for a TD in the first quarter and backup Ollie Eberth ’21 looked fine for most of the game. Jack Hickey ’19 led the way with two scored and 122 yards rushing, while Elijah Ngbokoli ’20 had a breakout game with a TD run of 39 yards in the third quarter. The defense also forced four turnovers against a Hamilton team that looked to be an up and coming threat. While the Mammoths certainly sent the Continentals back to earth, they looked clean and ready to take on the tougher teams in the process. Look for them to roll over Bowdoin.

Wesleyan celebrates their OT victory over Tufts.

4: Wesleyan
Nearly identically to last year, Wesleyan shrugged off their opening game loss against a tough team to beat another one in week two. They are here to stay, and although they have a tally in the loss column, they could make a run at the title just like they did until the final week of last season. Their OT win against Tufts saved their season and will be a great stepping stone after a defensively oriented game. Mark Piccirillo ’18 looked good passing but lost two fumbles, and the running game was weak, however, Ben Thaw ’20 and Shane Kaminski ’18 saved the day by each intercepting passes from Ryan McDonald. If Dario Highsmith ’20 can rebound against hamilton after rushing for just ten yards, then Wesleyan will be in good shape.

5: Tufts
Wesleyan avenged their 2016 week one loss to the Jumbos with an OT victory last week, dashing Tufts’ hopes of a perfect season. It’s really nice to think that the Jumbos aren’t totally out of the championship picture with the addition of the ninth game providing more hope, but it will be a tough road. After exiting the opening game against Hamilton early, Ryan McDonald ’20 returned but didn’t look good in the air, throwing two picks and zero TDs. He looked great on the ground though, running for over seven yards per carry and 122 yards total, including a TD. Tufts didn’t muster much offense other than his rushing though as if it weren’t for an 85 yard punt return from Jack Dolan ’20, they would’ve been routed in regular time. If Ryan Hagfeldt can return for week three, he might see some pocket action against Bates as the Jumbos should easily rout the Bobcats on their way to a 2-1 start.

6: Williams
2-0! A perfect start for a team that had a perfectly bad season in 2016. Is this the story of 2017 NESCAC football? Don’t get too excited too fast as the Ephs have yet to play a team from the top half of the division. They have some great pieces that they are rolling out as new QB Bobby Maimaron ’21, WRs Frank Stola ’21 and Justin Nelson are running the show. They were down 7-0 and then up just 10-7 at half against Colby, but turned up the heat in the fourth quarter, finishing the game with 24 unanswered points. Their first real test will be this weekend at Trinity, and if they can pull off this upset I will be shocked. If they put up a close game then they should still be considered the real deal. Let the Coop bring its worst, the Ephs are warmed up.

7: Hamilton
Well, I will admit defeat with this one. I wanted so badly to see a Cinderella story with the Continentals in 2017, but am realizing how that train has already left the station. Hamilton came off a hard fought loss against Tufts and just got abused by Amherst. Ball security was an issue as two RBs and a WR fumbled, leaving the Continentals with a poor red zone execution rate. Gray also threw a pick and with those four turnovers, they never had a shot. Granted these aspects of the game are correctable as Gray looked solid, and so did lead receiver Christian Donahue ’20, but they still couldn’t gain any traction on the ground. Their rush defense was also pitiful, and against other top teams like Trinity and Wesleyan with good backs, they will continue to watch their deficits shoot up.

8: Bowdoin
Bowdoin didn’t look great against Middlebury, particularly their defense, and only scored garbage time TDs. They did score twice though, putting them ahead of Colby and Bates in the rankings. This was an important game though as it was the first start for Griff Stalcup ’21 who took over for Noah Nelson ’18 (as predicted). Stalcup struggled some, completing just 12 passes for 105 yards, but ran the ball well, rushing ten times for 54 yards and a TD. If he keeps developing he could be an exciting dual threat player for the Polar Bears, although I will keep in mind it was against the Panthers’ reserves. Lebowitz had all day to throw for Middlebury, as he was sacked just once, and if they can’t pressure the QB, the opposition if going to keep having a field day against Bowdoin.

9: Colby
The Mules move up in the rankings by virtue of getting on the scoreboard in week two, but are only marginally higher than Bates. Sure they only lost by 17 (is that even a bright side?), but getting dominated by Williams, regardless of how good they might be, is not a good result. QB Jack O’Brien had an OK day, not throwing a pick, completing over 50% of his passes, and finding the end zone, but he also fumbled and failed to keep his team in the game. Jake Schwern had a solid day on the ground with 71 yards rushing, and the positives stop with him. The Mule defense sacked Williams’ QB Maimaron just twice and recorded five tackles for losses compared to 12 from the Ephs, pointing to line troubles on both sides of the ball. This was probably a game that was circled on the Colby schedule as a victory before the season and is going to hurt for a while.

10: Bates
There are four 0-2 teams and one of them had to bite the bullet. Bates is last on these rankings due to lack of a point scored in week two. Their offensive struggles of week one worsened and that is a big issue for a team that looked to be on the rise a season ago. As I predicted, QB Sandy Plashkes’ (’18) lack of production led to Matt Golden taking over, although with limited success. Plashkes’ completions to the Bobcats matched his completions to the Bantams (one each) and the Bates QBs threw for just 45 yards combined. They stayed true to their system of a run oriented offense, but besides Kyle Flaherty (seven rushes, 43 yards) no player with over two attempts averaged more than three yards per carry. If Bates’ defense continues to struggle, then running the ball in such a high volume without a dynamic back won’t lead to many comebacks. On the bright side, Justin Foley netted 247 total yards on punts.

The Ninth Games: Weekend Preview 9/16

Here we are, NESCAC football fans. Not only is this opening weekend (always exciting) but it is also the first opening weekend of the Ninth Game era, something that fans and players have wanted for a while. I would caution you to take your excitement with a grain of salt, however. This season starts a week earlier than usual. That means a week less practice time for teams to get ready for game play. I would expect these games to be somewhat sloppy, and potentially fairly low scoring. Some grizzled, older fans like my father would like that “smash-mouth football style,” but I like offense. We will see how well teams have adjusted to this new schedule. However, if it means we get to watch football earlier, I’ll gladly accept some sloppiness.

Bowdoin @ Williams, 12:00 PM, Williamstown, MA

The first kickoff of the season features two teams that are looking to put 2016 in their rearview mirror. This can only happen with a good start in 2017, so both sides should be very motivated. All eyes will be on who starts at quarterback for Williams, although sources are telling us that it will most likely be John Gannon ‘18, who is returning from missing last year with a torn ACL. A fair amount of rust is to be expected (from everyone, not just Gannon,) but if he can get into a rhythm then he has the weapons to really explode. TE Tyler Patterson ‘19 is a beast when healthy, and experienced receivers Adam Regensberg ‘’18 and Kellen Hatheway ‘19 give him a lot of options to throw to. Bowdoin’s defense wasn’t exactly world-beating last year, allowing the most rushing yards AND passing yards per game last year, but they return two stellar linebackers Latif Armiyaw ‘18 and Joe Gowetski ‘18 and will be looking to make a statement. However, I think Williams is ready to start trending upwards, and this game is the start of that.

Final Score Prediction: Williams 27, Bowdoin 10

GAME OF THE WEEK: Wesleyan @ Middlebury, 1:00 PM, Middlebury, VT

Jared Lebowitz ’18 is the most dangerous offensive force in the league, but needs a good o-line performance to top Wesleyan.
(Courtesy of vpr.net)

It’s not every year that a Week One game could have championship implications, but this game might. Wesleyan and Middlebury both have the returning talent to make a run at the championship, but one of them is also starting off the season 0-1. With Trinity’s level of talent and easier opening matchup, one loss might be too many to win the league outright. Therefore, we can expect both teams to be extra-fired up entering this one. Middlebury has been excellent at home over the last few years, but Wesleyan is well equipped to attack the dynamic Panther offense. The only way to beat Middlebury is to get pressure on QB Jared Lebowitz ‘18. If he has enough time, he will pick your defense apart. But when under pressure, he is prone to rushed throws and turnovers. Wesleyan’s defense is certainly athletic enough to get through the young Middlebury offensive line.

However, the Cardinals offense can be inconsistent. They lost two of the major weapons from their running attack last year in WR/RB Devin Carillo and RB Lou Stevens. Therefore, they either have to use Dario Highsmith ‘19, the new starting RB, in a much larger role or reinvent themselves as a more pass-heavy offense. If their offense struggles, Middlebury’s no-huddle offense will wear down the defense, and eventually Lebowitz will get the time he needs. And at that point, it’s game over.

Score Prediction: Middlebury 31, Wesleyan 28

Hamilton @ Tufts, 1:00 PM, Medford, MA

This game has by far the highest upset potential of any this weekend, and I’m jumping on it. Hamilton returns a great deal of their much-improved offense from last year, including quarterback Kenny Gray ‘20, who impressed many with his poise as a first year last season. The defense is far newer, but they benefit this week from facing a Tufts team that graduated most of their offense from last year. Of course, that offense came in the form of one man, RB Chance Brady, who dominated the league like Tecmo Bo Jackson last year. It will take a great deal of work for Tufts to adjust to life without Brady. I think they’re up to the task, but the shortened preseason will cost them here in Week One.

Final Score Prediction: Hamilton 17, Tufts 14

Bates @ Amherst, 1:00 PM, Amherst, MA

Jack Hickey ’19 might well be the next star NESCAC running back in Amherst’s renewed offense.
(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

This game features the return of Amherst QB and POY candidate Reece Foy ‘18, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. And not only do the Mammoths get Foy back, they return red zone weapon Jack Hickey ‘19 at running back. Hickey scored seven touchdowns last year, and seems poised to break out as a star this year in a wide open race for First Team RB. Amherst also returns star WR Bo Berluti ‘20. The Mammoth’s offense is ready to break out after struggling at times last season, and a strong defense puts Amherst back towards the top of the preseason rankings. Bates returns a great deal of talent as well. QB Sandy Plaschkes ‘18 has been solid for years, but has to raise his game in this game, and this season, if Bates wants to compete with teams like Amherst. Bates has the talent to make it a game, but Amherst is back and there’s nothing the Bobcats can do about it.

Final Score Prediction: Amherst 28, Bates 17

Colby @ Trinity, 1:00 PM, Hartford, CT

There are teams that have a chance to take Trinity down this season, and games in which they could struggle. Colby is not that team, and this is not that game. Trinity brings back QB Sonny Puzzo 18, RB Max Chipouras ‘19 and WR Bryan Viera ‘18. In other words, they bring back arguably the best in the league at three skill positions. This bodes well for Trinity’s offense. Colby, on the other hand, lost their biggest weapon in Sebastian Ferrall ‘19. They do return a great deal of talent on defense, especially in the secondary and at linebacker. If everything goes perfectly for the Mules, they put up a great performance on defense and only lose by one touchdown. Unfortunately, the team that beats Trinity this season will have to beat them in a shootout, not a defensive battle.

Final Score Prediction: Trinity 40, Colby 10.

 

Down to the Wire: Week 7 Weekend Preview, 11/5

Alex Waugh '18 and Hamilton hope to pull off the upset as they host Middlebury this weekend in Clinton (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)
Alex Waugh ’18 and Hamilton hope to pull off the upset as they host Middlebury this weekend in Clinton (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)

Honestly speaking, this has been the most exciting NESCAC season that I have witnessed in my college career. Looking over the schedule for the final two weeks of season, I am drawn to game after game after game. There are games with championship hopes on the line (both NESCAC and CBB championship hopes); there are games with endless pride at stake; there are in-state rivalry games, conference rivalry games, grudge matches…there’s even some little school in Connecticut that’s trying to finish out an undefeated season. 2016 has given us the rise of a historically less relevant team in terms of championship contention (Tufts), and it has also presented us with an epic fall from grace (Amherst). All in all, it’s hard to objectively look at the 2016 NESCAC Football season and be upset — the competition has been good, great, phenomenal…I can’t wait to see what type of upsets are in store for us over these next two weeks.

Hold your horses though, folks. Before we can get to the decisive Week 8 games, we need to get through this weekend. Good news! There are a number of very important games tomorrow, games that will set the stage for a thrilling final week. The most obvious is Amherst-Trinity, a matchup that features an undefeated group of Bantams looking to win the sole title of 2016 NESCAC champion. Amherst has been on quite the slide as of late, but if they can put together a little Western Mass magic like we remember from the good old days, then Week 8 will be VERY interesting. Elsewhere, Middlebury, Tufts, and Wesleyan all have one loss, and all need to win-out in order to have a shot at taking home at least a share of the title (I’d be unbelievably surprised if there was a sole champion that didn’t hail from Hartford, CT, but I suppose it is possible). The good news for all three of the 5-1 squads is that they play Hamilton, Colby, and Williams respectively. The bad news? Hamilton, Colby, and Williams are ALL looking to spoil some championship dreams. So check out Saturday’s action below – this should be an awesome weekend.

(Per usual, Pete and I split up this weekend’s preview. I wrote about the Colby-Tufts and Wesleyan-Williams games, while Pete wrote the Middlebury-Hamilton, Amherst-Trinity, and Bates-Bowdoin games)

Colby (2-4) at Tufts (5-1), Medford, MA, 1:00 PM

Sebastian Farrell '19 debatably leapfrogged this defender (Courtesy of Colby Athletics)
Sebastian Ferrell ’19 debatably leapfrogged this defender (Courtesy of Colby Athletics)

Well, Pete moved Tufts into the #2 slot in this week’s power rankings, so it’s time for the Jumbos to show everyone that they deserve that nod. While the Trinitys, Middleburys, and Wesleyans of the world have been able to blow out some inferior opponents by ~30 points somewhat often, Tufts has not done so, but that doesn’t mean they’re any worse of a team for it. Scoring 40 or 50 points is not their M.O. – playing solid defense and wearing down opposing defenses is. That’s why Tufts has the lowest point differential per game, an average of just +9.33 per game compared to Trinity (27.00), Middlebury (11.33), and Wesleyan (21.00). It’s also why I think that this weekend’s game could be closer than many people are anticipating. Colby is fresh off a devastating loss to Bates, but the fight they showed in the second half of that game is a testament to their willpower. The Mules are clearly not going to roll over, and whether or not Jabari Hurdle-Price ‘17 is back from injury this week, Colby is going to be ready to play. Expect Coach Michaeles to stick with what’s working – lots of plays drawn up  for Christian Sparacio ‘18 to feed Sebastian Ferrell ‘19. Lockdown Jumbo cornerback Tim Preston ‘19 is back to his old ways – once again he leads the NESCAC in interceptions (4), so expect him to line up against Ferrell. The main question, as always, will be whether the opposing D can shut down Chance Brady ‘17… I somehow doubt it.

Rory Ziomek: Colby 17, Tufts 24

Pete Lindholm: Colby 10, Tufts 13

Liam O’Neil: Colby 10, Tufts 40

Colin Tiernan: Colby 13, Tufts 31

Colby Morris: Colby 7, Tufts 35

Sid Warrenbrand: Colby 7, Tufts 41

Nick DiBenedetto: Colby 7, Tufts 21

 

Wesleyan (5-1) at Williams (0-6), Williamstown, MA, 1:00 PM

I have tried to be pretty optimistic about Williams all season long, and they have shown some instances of competitive football in 2016, but overall, I think that Williams’ defense has been their downfall. The Ephs are allowing 29.3 OPPG, largely in part because of the nearly 400 YPG that they allow (381.5). Conceding a league-worst 199.2 YPG on the ground is not a recipe for success against Wesleyan, the third-best rushing attack in the NESCAC (180.5 YPG). And it’s not that the Cardinals can’t pass either! Quarterback Mark Piccirillo ‘19 can pass, he can run, and above all else, he can facilitate offensive flow. If Williams wants to win this game, they are going to need to score the football…unfortunately, I think that could be an issue for them. Though Williams ranks 6th in scoring in the NESCAC, they are a hop, skip and a jump below Amherst’s scoring average, once again highlighting the “league of two tiers” that we have often alluded to this fall. Wesleyan still boasts the best defense in the league, allowing just 7.7 OPPG, one that has only gotten better as the season has gone on. If the rest of the 2016 season is an accurate barometer, Wesleyan should head to Trinity at 6-1.

Rory: Wesleyan 42, Williams 7

Pete: Wesleyan 35, Williams 7

Liam: Wesleyan 27, Williams 10

Colin: Wesleyan 27, Williams 10

Colby: Wesleyan 28, Williams 13

Sid: Wesleyan 38, Williams 6

Nick: Wesleyan 38, Williams 14

 

Middlebury (5-1) at Hamilton (2-4), Clinton, NY, 1:00 PM

Contrary to the apparent mismatch, this is a crucial game for the Panthers.  Last weekend, Trinity Sonny Corleone-d the Panthers to the tune of a 49-13 drubbing that may not even have been that close.  The Panthers now must win out (and get a little help from Amherst this weekend) in order to have a shot at sharing the league title.  Their biggest obstacle on paper is a home game against Tufts to close the year, but Middlebury would be wise to not discount the Continentals this weekend.  Hamilton is a long drive from Middlebury, and the Panthers have had a tendency to start slowly, particularly on the road.  Also, Hamilton is truly not that bad.  Quarterback Kenny Gray ‘20 has had some impressive connections with receiver Charles Ensley ‘18, and the defense features certified studs Mickey Keating ‘18 and Tyler Hudson ‘19, who are excellent at pressuring the quarterback.  The struggling Middlebury offensive line will have to step up their game in order to give Jared Lebowitz time to get back into POY form after a very tough week against Trinity.  This should be a tune-up game for Middlebury in preparation for Tufts, but it would be very dangerous for the Panthers to think like that.

Rory: Middlebury 20, Hamilton 23

Pete: Middlebury 23, Hamilton 14

Liam: Middlebury 34, Hamilton 10

Colin: Middlebury 27, Hamilton 10

Colby: Middlebury 38, Hamilton 14

Sid: Middlebury 24, Hamilton 6

Nick: Middlebury 42, Hamilton 0

 

Amherst (3-3) at Trinity (6-0), Hartford, CT, 12:30 PM

Look, did I expect Amherst to be 3-3 heading into Week Seven?  No.  Am I happy about it?  No, (holding back gleeful laughter) okay maybe a bit, but just because it makes for more interesting #content for us to write about here at NBN.  Amherst has lost three of their last four games, with turnovers out of quarterbacks Alex Berluti and Nick Morales being the main culprit.  Additionally, running back Jack Hickey ‘19, who was looking like a darkhorse All-League team candidate early in the season, has pretty much disappeared from the offense, posting only 97 yards and one TD over the last three games after 6 touchdowns in the first three games.  Amherst simply has no offensive firepower right now, and that doesn’t bode well for a matchup with Trinity’s vaunted defense.  However, Amherst still has one weapon left in their arsenal: pride.  This is a team that won 21 in a row just a short time ago, and the attitude that makes the rest of the league hate them is still there.  If they can summon that attitude, take care of the ball and let their still-excellent defense match up with Trinity’s dominant offense, this could be a classic.

Rory: Amherst 13, Trinity 31

Pete: Amherst 10, Trinity 28

Liam: Amherst 13, Trinity 28

Colin: Amherst 24, Trinity 33

Colby: Amherst 13, Trinity 27

Sid: Amherst 14, Trinity 21

Nick: Amherst 17, Trinity 38

 

Bates (2-4) at Bowdoin (0-6), Lewiston, ME, 12:30 PM

There’s a battle for Maine brewing in Lewiston this weekend, as well as a battle for Bates to have one of their best seasons in the last ten years.  The second game of the CBB (Colby-Bates-Bowdoin) series features Bates coming off a hard fought 21-19 win over Colby, and Bowdoin coming off a shellacking at the hands of Wesleyan. Bates has a great opportunity in the next few weeks to finish at .500, as they play Hamilton in Week Eight.  Bowdoin, on the other hand, has an opportunity against Bates or Colby to leave 2016 with a win, potentially two, which would be a tremendous moral victory in a season that was doomed from the start.  The key for the Polar Bears will be keeping Bates QB Sandy Plaschkes from breaking away for big plays.  Plaschkes 42% completion percentage looks bad on paper (and honestly is pretty bad,) but he has eight touchdowns and only four interceptions on the year, and has a knack for coming up with big throws when the team needs it.  The stakes in this game are not high rankings-wise, but they are for the teams involved, making for a hard fought game.

Rory: Bates 27, Bowdoin 21

Pete: Bates 24, Bowdoin 7

Liam: Bates 26, Bowdoin 8

Colin: Bates 17, Bowdoin 20

Colby: Bates 17, Bowdoin 13

Sid: Bates 16, Bowdoin 9

Nick: Bates 28, Bowdoin 14

Another Undefeated Team Will Fall: Week 4 Weekend Preview, 10/13

Courtesy of Amherst Athletics
Courtesy of Amherst Athletics

Editor’s Note:

Below is the weekend preview for this week. Colby Morris wrote the bulk of this article, but Pete Lindholm added in the section about the Tufts-Trinity game. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis of this game (our pick for this week’s game of the week), check it out here. After two weeks of our writers making predictions before each weekend, here is how everyone stacks up:

Rory Ziomek: 9-1

Pete Lindholm: 9-1

Liam O’Neil: 9-1

Colin Tiernan: 9-1

Colby Morris: 9-1

Sid Warrenbrand: 9-1

Nick DiBenedetto: 9-1

Pretty boring that everyone is on the same page, but the field should start to separate after this weekend. Now, on to Colby and Pete’s analyses…

 

Middlebury at Williams, 1:30 PM, Williamstown, MA

Let’s look at the positives for Williams going into this weekend: It’s a home game. It’s a blunt and harsh analysis, but there aren’t many highlights so far for the Ephs. Their best game was a 9-7 loss to Colby and now they go home to face the hottest team in the ‘Cac. The Panthers had a statement win over Amherst last weekend – especially impressive due to their superb special teams play – eliminating the last weakness in an already strong team. At 3-0 Middlebury should waltz to a win as Williams is on par with both Bowdoin and Colby, whom Midd beat handily. This will be another tough test for rookie QB Jansen Durham ‘20 as he looks to find Adam Regensburg ‘18 through the solid Midd secondary. Regensburg, listed as a DB, is a special teams and offensive weapon, and might just hurt his back trying to carry the team in Williamstown. Prove me wrong Williams.

RZ: Middlebury – 45, Williams – 7

PL: Middlebury – 38, Williams – 10

LO: Middlebury – 40, Williams – 14

CT: Middlebury – 45, Williams – 3

CM: Middlebury – 34, Williams – 3

SW: Middlebury – 38, Williams – 10

ND: Middlebury – 38, Williams – 10

Editor’s Note: I never seen a more popular 38-10 score prediction in my life.

 

Bowdoin at Hamilton, 12:00 PM, Clinton, NY

Jimmy Giattino '17 makes a play on the ball against Trinity (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics/Michael P. Doherty).
Jimmy Giattino ’17 makes a play on the ball against Trinity (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics/Michael P. Doherty).

This has the makings for one of the most competitive games going into the weekend, as each 0-3 team vies for their first win. While Pete picked Hamilton to beat Wesleyan during week two, Hamilton got dominated, as they are on the wrong side of a cumulative score of 105-12 through their first three contests. Unlike Hamilton’s experience thus far, Bowdoin’s 0-3 record doesn’t quite tell the whole story. Sure, they got blown out by Middlebury in week one, but then didn’t do quite as badly against Amherst week two, only losing by three possessions to a great team. Last week against Tufts, the Polar Bears’ offense showed some real prowess, as RB Nate Richam rushed for his first career touchdown. If it wasn’t for an ugly third quarter, the Polar Bears would’ve had a real shot. Granted their defense has been prone to allowing huge offensive days out of opposing teams thus far, but Bowdoin should be able to hold off Hamilton’s weak attack. I’m predicting that the Polar Bears will find their way into the warm, sunny win column.

RZ: Bowdoin – 17, Hamilton – 20

PL: Bowdoin – 10, Hamilton – 20

LO: Bowdoin – 17, Hamilton – 24

CT: Bowdoin – 16, Hamilton – 13

CM: Bowdoin – 24, Hamilton – 7

SW: Bowdoin – 21, Hamilton – 13

ND: Bowdoin – 28, Hamilton – 13

 

Wesleyan at Bates, 1:00 PM, Lewiston, ME

Frank Williams was this week's offensive player of the week after a huge game against Williams (Courtesy of Josh Kickers/Bates College)
Frank Williams was this week’s offensive player of the week after a huge game against Williams (Courtesy of Josh Kickers/Bates College)

The Bobcats finally made their jump into the win column last weekend against Williams, thanks to a big breakout performance by Sandy Plashkes ‘19. For the first time he showed that he can throw the ball pretty well, quadrupling his previous two games’ passing yards by going 10-24 for 240 yards and 4 TDs. He already showed us that he can fly, breaking off a big 57 yard run against Trinity, and had another 27 yard run last weekend, emerging as a dual threat QB. While their win against Williams doesn’t prove much, they had a similar outcome against Tufts that Wesleyan did, showing that they should be able to compete well this weekend. Wesleyan has rattled off two dominant wins in a row, and Nate Taylor ’18, who broke out with two picks, will be ready to pounce again on Saturday. Wesleyan has only allowed 213 yards per game this year, and with their streaking offense led by team passing and rushing leader Mark Piccirillo ’19, they should be able to hold off the dangerous Bates team. Wesleyan shouldn’t struggle to score, and if they can contain Plashkes, they should come out on top.

RZ: Wesleyan – 27, Bates – 21

PL: Wesleyan – 17, Bates – 13

LO: Wesleyan – 27, Bates – 10

CT: Wesleyan – 33, Bates – 17

CM: Wesleyan – 20, Bates – 17

SW: Wesleyan – 28, Bates – 17

ND: Wesleyan – 28, Bates – 17

 

Colby at Amherst, 1:00 PM, Amherst, MA

Coming off of their first loss in three years, I do not expect Amherst to waste any time in starting a new streak. They are going to be angry and determined to keep the NESCAC crown, and with only one loss, it’s still possible for them. This means bad news for the visiting Mules as they roll into away territory riding a two game losing streak, after an important, albeit shaky, season opening win against Williams. Jabari Hurdle-Price ‘17 is one of the bright spots for Colby as both a rushing and receiving threat, leading the team with 440 all purpose yards on the year. If Colby is going to make this close, which would be a small miracle, they will need to see some more INT’s from their DB’s Will Caffey and Ian Dickey like in week one. It is bad news for the Mules that third stringer turned starter Nick Morales ‘19 did as well as he did last weekend, and if not for a late pick vs. Middlebury, he would’ve had a flawless day. Jack Hickey ‘19 continued to show that he is a TD machine, making me wish that he was on my fantasy team instead of the disappointing Lamar Miller of the Texans. If Colby can’t stop him, Amherst will surely roll to another blowout win in their quest to climb back up the NESCAC standings.

RZ: Colby – 3, Amherst – 30

PL: Colby 3, Amherst – 45

LO: Colby 7, Amherst – 42

CT: Colby – 14, Amherst – 27

CM: Colby – 6, Amherst – 35

SW: Colby – 7, Amherst – 42

ND: Colby – 7, Amherst – 34

 

Tufts @ Trinity, 1:30 PM, Hartford, CT

For a longer preview of this game, check out Rory’s piece.  It’s not better written or particularly well-researched, but it is longer and does exist (Editor’s note: Pete is just jealous that I actually have a stake in this game).  Anyway, the Bantams’ eyes lit up last weekend when Middlebury ended Amherst’s reign of terror atop the league.  Trinity has flown under the radar this year as Middlebury and Amherst have battled at the top of the league, but the boys from Hartford have been as impressive as either of those two squads.  Quarterback (and rejected Godfather character name) Sonny Puzzo ‘18 leads the offense, with heavy aid from running back Max Chipouras ‘19.  Of course, it’s important to note that Trinity has played three of the worst teams in the league thus far.  Tufts is far from that ignominious status.  The Jumbos also come in at 3-0, with a quality win over Wesleyan under their belts.  However, they barely eked out a 12-7 win over Bates, whom Trinity put in their front pouch like a mother kangaroo to the tune of 38-7.  Tufts’ offense is dominated by rushing duo Chance Brady ‘17 and Ryan McDonald ‘19, who have scored six of Tufts’ eight touchdowns.  However, Trinity’s more balanced offense and stout defense should be able to overcome that attack.  Look for the Bantams to win handily.

RZ: Tufts – 13, Trinity – 21

PL: Tufts – 14, Trinity – 28

LO: Tufts – 24, Trinity – 26

CT: Tufts – 23, Trinity – 24

CM: Tufts – 10, Trinity – 31

SW: Tufts – 16, Trinity – 14

ND: Tufts – 10, Trinity – 31

The First Test at the Top: Weekend Preview 10/8

Dario Highsmith '20 looks to run through Colby this weekend on the way to a 2-1 record for the Cardinals (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics).
Dario Highsmith ’20 looks to run through Colby this weekend on the way to a 2-1 record for the Cardinals (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics).

Hear ye, hear ye, Week 3 NESCAC action is in order! What’s almost as good as watching NESCAC football on Saturdays? National polls suggest that NBN’s Weekend Previews come in a close second place. Quite a weekend we’ve got in store: Williams and Bates will battle it out to see who can avoid an 0-3 start, Tufts tries to prove that their close game against the Bobcats was a fluke, Trinity will attempt to put up 38 points for the third week in a row, and Colby will try to upset Wesleyan in a battle between two 1-1 squads. Oh and ho-hum, Amherst and Middlebury will battle for the top spot in the conference. Pete and I tag-teamed this weekend’s preview, so if you are looking to skip through Pete’s overly poetic analysis, I wrote the Trinity-Hamilton and Tufts-Bowdoin previews. Check it out below:

Amherst @ Middlebury, 1:30 PM, Middlebury, VT

For a more expansive preview of this one, check out Colby Morris’ excellent piece that went up yesterday.  This game is on the short list for the most important game of the year, with Middlebury and Amherst both coming in undefeated after impressive blowouts in each of their respective games. It’s not too much of a stretch to say that this game may well decide the league championship, although Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan certainly have something to say in that regard.

The Panthers are led by quarterback Jared Lebowitz ‘18, who has 11 total touchdowns (10 passing, 1 rushing) and just one interception thus far this season.  However, Amherst’s staunch defense will pose a very tough test to the first year starter.  In contrast to the Panthers, Amherst comes in with quarterback uncertainty, with starter Alex Berluti ‘17  suffering a knee injury last week, forcing third-stringer Nick Morales ‘18 into action. Berluti may very well play, but either way, Amherst’s strong defense and powerful running game led by Jack Hickey ‘19 should mitigate any issues under center. This game may well come down to which offense can break through first, or it could be a shootout that comes down to one crucial stop. In any event, it’s shaping up to be a classic.

 

PS: Look how unbiased that was, Rory!  I did it!

PPS:  Go Panthers

Rory Ziomek (5-0): Amherst – 24, Middlebury – 21

Pete Lindholm (5-0): Amherst – 28, Middlebury – 31

Liam O’Neil (5-0): Amherst – 24, Middlebury – 17

Colin Tiernan (5-0): Amherst – 24, Middlebury – 20

Colby Morris (4-1): Amherst – 21, Middlebury – 28 (OT)

Sid Warrenbrand (5-0): Amherst – 31, Middlebury – 14

Nick DiBenedetto (5-0): Amherst – 30, Middlebury – 31

 

Williams @ Bates, 1:00 PM, Lewiston, ME

Look, every game can’t be Amherst vs. Middlebury.  This is maybe the least sexy match-up of the weekend, with both teams struggling mightily so far.  However, the game offers a golden opportunity for either of these teams to pick up a win, so it’s still an intriguing matchup to check the score of while you’re waiting in line for the bathroom at the Middlebury-Amherst game.

Bates put up a very good fight against Tufts last week, losing 12-7 and throwing a shutout for the entire second half.  They showed a very strong defense, limiting explosive Jumbos running back Chance Brady ‘17 to 140 yards and no touchdowns.  Unfortunately, they had some pretty severe offensive struggles of their own, totaling only 220 total yards of offense. Williams is coming off a shellacking at home against Trinity, in which they gave up 517 total yards of offense and only gained 201. This should be a tight one, with Bates getting the edge because they’re at home and my younger sister goes to college there.

RZ: Williams – 13, Bates – 20

PL: Williams – 10, Bates – 13

LO: Williams – 7, Bates – 16

CT: Williams – 10, Bates – 17

CM: Williams – 7, Bates – 14

SW: Williams – 17, Bates 21

ND: Williams – 14, Bates – 10

 

Wesleyan @ Colby, 1:00 PM, Waterville, ME

If you ask me, this game has serious upset potential.  Colby is a long trip for Wesleyan, and the Mules already have a road win under their belt in Williamstown.  Wesleyan, on the other hand, lost a tough early season game to Tufts in which they blew a double digit lead in the second half.  Throwing history and reputation aside, both these teams are 1-1 right now, and numbers never lie (except when they do).

At their best, Wesleyan uses an explosive running attack led by electric freshman Dario Highsmith to march down the field. They punctuate those runs with safe, cagey passes from quarterback Mark Piccirillo ‘19. However, as Tufts showed in Week One, the Wesleyan offense can be stalled by the same kind of stout defense that Colby showed at Williams. It would be surprising if Colby pulled this one off, but the possibility is there.

RZ: Wesleyan – 24, Colby – 17

PL: Wesleyan – 20, Colby – 10

LO: Wesleyan – 31, Colby – 7

CT: Wesleyan – 30, Colby – 10

CM: Wesleyan – 24, Colby – 10

SW: Wesleyan – 35, Colby – 14

ND: Wesleyan – 35, Colby – 7

 

Trinity @ Hamilton, 1:00 PM, Clinton, NY

It took me three clicks on the NESCAC website to find the most glaring disparity between the Bantams and the Continentals: their offensive outputs. While Trinity has absolutely annihilated teams so far, putting up 38 points in each of their games thus far, the Continentals are averaging a mere 3 PPG. I don’t think anybody expected Hamilton to make it through their opening stretch unscathed, but frankly, they have been obliterated by Amherst and Wesleyan in consecutive games. Liam mentioned this in his Top 10 Games of 2016 article a few weeks ago, but the scheduling gods certainly didn’t spare Hamilton this year, and Week 3 looks to be another opportunity for a powerhouse to dismember the Continentals’ defense.

Chipouras looks to continue his insane pace against Hamilton tomorrow (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics).
Chipouras looks to continue his insane pace against Hamilton tomorrow (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics).

Hamilton is tied with Williams for the second-worst clip of rushing YPG allowed in the league, giving up 221.5 YPG on the ground to their opponents. Meanwhile, Trinity just runs, runs, and runs more, and is averaging 305 YPG on the ground through the first two weeks! Max Chipouras ‘19 was one of my early picks for player of the year for a reason; he has shown flashes of Boobie Miles with his 154.5 rush YPG rate that has placed him atop the conference. I’d be surprised if Trinity doesn’t run away with this one.

RZ: Trinity – 38, Hamilton – 10

PL: Trinity – 45, Hamilton – 6

LO: Trinity – 36, Hamilton – 10

CT: Trinity – 40, Hamilton – 0

CM: Trinity – 34, Hamilton 7

SW: Trinity – 42, Hamilton – 9

ND: Trinity – 40, Hamilton – 6

 

Tufts @ Bowdoin, 2:00 PM, Brunswick, ME

Speaking of dominant running backs, Smash Williams, aka Chance Brady, is heading up to Bowdoin this weekend to try to dethrone Chipouras as the NESCAC’s leading rusher. Brady trails Chipouras, but just barely, accumulating 145.5 YPG on the ground so far. The issue for the Jumbos at this point is that they can’t decide who they want to throw the ball. Is it going to be JD McCoy or Matt Saracen? Alex Snyder ‘17 and Ryan McDonald ‘19 have both seen plenty of snaps thus far, but neither has excelled, and Coach Civetti has had to lean on Brady to shoulder the load offensively. If Tufts wants to compete for the title this year, it’s crucial that they demonstrate the ability to attack through the air effectively. The Jumbos only rank ahead of Bates in passing yards…the Bobcats run the option…see what I’m getting at?

Bowdoin hopes to get on the phone with Matt Patricia before Saturday's game to talk defensive strategy.
Bowdoin hopes to get on the phone with Matt Patricia before Saturday’s game to talk defensive strategy.

“So, Rory, when are you going to start talking about the game?” Here’s how my tangent becomes relevant: if Bowdoin can stop the run, they have a pretty good chance to win this game. Because of how reliant Tufts is on their ground game, the Polar Bears may be tempted to stack the box and force the Jumbos to throw. This strategy worked decently well for Bates, right? I mean, there was a minor tsunami in Somerville last Saturday, but still, the Bobcats played a “bend don’t break” style of defense à la Matt Patricia and the New England Patriots, and they found themselves right in it until the end of the game. However, aside from stopping the run, Bowdoin needs to score, which is arguably their biggest challenge of the weekend. Coming off of games against Middlebury and Amherst, it’s not surprising that Bowdoin has struggled offensively to begin the 2016 season, but if their defense can keep them in the game, Bowdoin may only need a couple good drives to find themselves victorious. That being said, I don’t think anything will slow down Brady tomorrow (insert Pete’s comment about me being biased here).

RZ: Tufts – 28, Bowdoin – 13

PL: Tufts – 17, Bowdoin 14

LO: Tufts – 34, Bowdoin – 6

CT: Tufts – 24, Bowdoin – 13

CM: Tufts – 21, Bowdoin – 6

SW: Tufts – 28, Bowdoin – 6

ND: Tufts – 20, Bowdoin – 10

Goliath, Meet Goliath: Week 3 Game of the Week

 

The Panthers will rely heavily on Leibowitz this weekend in a battle of two of the four remaining undefeated teams (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
The Panthers will rely heavily on Leibowitz this weekend in a battle of two of the four remaining undefeated teams (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Editor’s Note: The writers’ predictions will come out in tomorrow’s weekend preview blog. For now, enjoy the below analysis of the Amherst-Middlebury game this weekend.

Amherst (2-0) at Middlebury (2-0),1:30 PM, Middlebury, VT

Amherst vs. Middlebury—two undefeated teams squaring off in front of the Green Mountains— the Panthers vs. the Perennial champs (for lack of a mascot)—Jared Lebowitz against Donnie Mckillop? Yes, fans, you heard that right. Mckillop will be on the other sideline this weekend, coaching for the Purple & White against his beloved Panthers. So this game includes not one, but two Middlebury Quarterback greats—or soon to be greats. The visiting Amherst team isn’t going to care about the nostalgia for the home Middlebury crowd though, as they still have their 21 game winning streak on the line. 21 games—that is almost three seasons’ worth of wins in a row, and Middlebury rolls into this home game locked in after walloping both of their opponents thus far. This game has shades of a legendary matchup. Both sides are coming to play.

 

Amherst X-Factor: Quarterback Alex Berluti ’17/Nick Morales ’19

Alex Berluti '17 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Alex Berluti ’17 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Nick Morales '19 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Nick Morales ’19 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Berluti has been an admirable replacement for Reece Foy ’18, however, depending on last week’s knee injury, Nick Morales ’18 may have to try his hand at QB for Amherst in a Jacoby Brisset-like situation. If this occurs, the Purple & White would be onto their third string QB, facing off against a tough Middlebury pass rush. Morales did have a great end to the game against Bowdoin, going 7/10 for 102 yards passing and a TD, so Amherst shouldn’t be too worried. While either quarterback can hold his own, their pocket presence and ability to get the ball into the hands of David Boehm ’17 and Bo Berluti ’18, who have all four of the team’s receiving TD’s, is going to determine Amherst’s success passing the pigskin. Luckily for Amherst’s signal callers, they can lean on Jack Hickey ‘19 and the handful of other talented backs that Amherst mixes into their rushing attack to shoulder the load offensively. Berluti/Morales just need to be efficient and composed when they drop back to pass.

 

Middlebury X-Factor: Wide Receiver Conrado Banky ’19

Conrado Banky '19 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics).
Conrado Banky ’19 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics).

The only reason Jared Lebowitz isn’t the X-Factor is that I’m bank(y)ing on him having another great game – Middlebury certainly is too. The real uncertainty in this game is whether Banky can rattle off another incredible game against a defense that has only allowed 5 points per game and 150 total yards. The sophomore wideout had a breakout game last weekend with 198 yards and two TD’s, and should be heavily targeted this weekend, but Amherst knows that, and will be keeping a close eye on him when Lebowitz drops back to pass. Bottom line is, if he ends up in the end zone, the Panthers have a good shot with their running game supplementing Banky and Ryan Rizzo ’17 in the air. Then again, Middlebury ranks 7th in rushing, and really hasn’t found someone that can give them a huge boost on the ground. That hasn’t hurt the Panthers so far, however, nor has it affected Banky’s ability to get open. I’m sticking with him as my surprise breakout player of the year.

 

Everything Else

Nothing would be sweeter for the Panthers than winning against their rivals, ending their losing streak at home, and taking the top spot in the conference, all on parents weekend in what is sure to be a loud and rowdy crowd. Emotions will be flying high as last week’s “Gold Helmet” winner, given weekly to the top DII/DIII performer (Lebowitz), will be in front of familiar faces in what is sure to be one of his biggest starts as a Middlebury QB. While Middlebury has played weak opponents thus far, drawing some speculation as to how good Lebowitz and his squad really are, he duly pointed out that they “were the hardest teams we had to play those respective weeks.” Amherst has no right to talk about strength of schedule since they have also faced two struggling 0-2 teams.

Since the combined scores from each team’s early season are 140-27, it is still tough to argue that either has been tested thus far. This is the first game involving one of the contending four teams (Midd, Amherst, Trinity, and Tufts) who are still 2-0, and will surely tell who is really coming to play this season.

This tilt showcases two high powered offenses facing off, although it looks like the healthy Middlebury side may have a slight edge going in. The Panthers finally looked to figure out some of their kicking troubles last weekend, as Carter Massengill ’20 went 5/5 on XP’s, although they should still hope the game doesn’t come down to a last second field goal. Amherst uses more of a running back by committee approach as three RB’s have nine carries or more, but none have really racked off any huge games. Jack Hickey ’19 might need to be more of a horse on Saturday as he has only averaged 15 carries per game, although he has still found the end zone five times. Frankly, if Hickey gets going, it could be tough to stop the Amherst offense, which has proven to be pretty deadly in the past when they can mix the pass and the run equally effectively.

Let’s hope for the sake of a good football game that Amherst doesn’t have to go deeper into their QB depth charts this weekend and use their Julian Edelman. After all, there are only so many marquee match ups each year in the NESCAC, and this is geared up to be a barn burning classic. The game might even come down to a little extra distance per punt out of the leg of Amherst’s Andrew Ferrero ’19, doing his best impersonation of the 49ers’ Andy Lee. Unless you are heavily invested in another NESCAC game this weekend, your eyes should be on the action up in Middlebury, VT. Casual NESCAC fans: you DO NOT want to miss this one.

Football’s Back, Baby: Stock Report 9/26

Amherst dominated this weekend, proving why their win streak has run to 20 games (Courtesy of Bates Athletics/Phyllis Graber Jensen)
Amherst dominated this weekend, proving why their win streak has run to 20 games (Courtesy of Bates Athletics/Phyllis Graber Jensen)

Week 1 of 2016 was exactly what we’ve all been waiting for since the NESCAC football season ended last November. We had a couple blowouts in favor of familiar faces (Amherst, Middlebury, Trinity), and a couple of games that went right down to the wire. The Colby-Williams game was crazy, but not in a pretty way. This was a low-scoring, offensive battle…AKA, it was a battle to see who could have a worse day offensively. Luckily, it ended on a high note, as Colby needed their final drive to take the lead with under a minute left (read below for more details on the ending). Over in Somerville, MA, on the other hand, fans witnessed a battle between two great teams. It involved some terrific defensive plays, a 4th quarter comeback, and a whole lot of excitement as the Jumbos stormed back to win in front of their fans at the first home night game in Tufts football history. Below is our first stock report of the year – check it out to see whose stock rose and whose plummeted over the first weekend of the season.

 

Stock Up

 

Running Back Jack Hickey ‘19 (Amherst): If it wasn’t already certain, Hickey solidified himself as the goal line back for Coach Mills’ offense this weekend, punching in 3 touchdowns in Amherst’s absolute (yet unsurprising) domination of Hamilton this weekend. The 6’1” 218 pound sophomore fits the bill perfectly for short yardage situations, and he will certainly continue to get touches as Amherst nears the goal line. Hickey ended up with 67 yards on 18 rushes, but if it wasn’t a blowout these numbers might have been MUCH higher.

 

Linebacker Greg Holt ‘20 (Tufts): Holt surged onto the scene in the Saturday nightcap with a game-high 14 tackles. The freshman showed us that he is not going to gradually get his feet wet in college ball, he is going to dive headfirst into the action. It seemed like Holt was everywhere on Saturday, and if he keeps up that level of play along with fellow Jumbo linebacker Steve DiCienzo ‘18 (another Tufts linebacker who had 11 tackles of his own), the Powder Blue and Brown defense will be a nightmare for their opponents.

 

Quarterback Jared Lebowitz ‘18 (Middlebury): In the biggest blowout of the weekend, Lebowitz threw 5 touchdown passes and added a rushing touchdown to go along with them, accounting for all 6 of Middlebury’s touchdowns against the Polar Bears. There were some questions about whether the Middlebury aerial attack could be maintained after the departure of Matt Milano ‘16, but Lebowitz has silenced the doubters. Bowdoin is obviously in the lower tier of the conference, but still a strong showing from Coach Ritter’s gunslinger, who tallied 369 yards on the day.

 

Kicker John Baron ’18 (Colby): The Mules needed Baron to come up clutch on Saturday as he lined up for the game-deciding field goal with just seconds left against Williams. After a failed 2-point conversation earlier in the game, Colby was down one during the final possession. If Baron makes the kick they win, if he misses they lose. Last year Baron missed an extra point  against Bates which ended up being the difference in the game (10-9), but this week’s NESCAC Special Teams player of the week has clearly wiped that from his memory. Two words: cash money.

 

Stock Down

 

Hamilton Offense: It goes without saying that the Amherst defense played a heck of a game on Saturday, but seriously, Hamilton, 168 yards of total offense? 6 rushing yards on 18 attempts?? You can’t combine these numbers with a -3 turnover differential and expect to win football games. Film, film, and more film is in store for the Continentals.

 

NESCAC Ball Boys: There were five fumbles in each of the Bates-Trinity, Colby-Williams, and Wesleyan-Trinity games on Saturday. FIVE. Interestingly enough, Trinity had more fumbles than Bates (Trinity-3, Bates-2), but it didn’t hurt them as the Bantams won handily, 38-7. However, both Wesleyan and Williams had more fumbles than their opponents, likely leading to each of their downfalls. Either the teams were a bit too accustomed to no-contact practices or the PSI was far too high in the game balls…you be the judge. All I know is that these coaching staffs are going to be extra hard on their ball carriers in practice this week.

 

Wesleyan’s Killer Instinct: The Jumbos looked pretty horrible for three quarters, but they hung around because Wesleyan just couldn’t put them away. After a touchdown with 6:50 to go in the 2nd quarter, Wesleyan seemed to hold a pretty commanding 14-3 lead. Things just looked and felt like a blowout waiting to happen. But the Tufts defense kept them in the game until the 4th quarter rolled around, and boom, a Cardinals missed field goal was followed up by a 33 yard run by Chance Brady ‘17, which set the stage for a 39 yard pass to Mike Rando ‘17 a couple plays later. From that point on, the Jumbos had the momentum, and it felt like Wesleyan was just trying to hold them off as opposed to continuing their attack.

Purple (And White) Reign: Will Amherst’s Dominance Continue?

Will the reigning champs feel the losses of some of their stars? Or will they be posing for another picture like this come November? (Courtesy of Clarus Studios, Inc; Amherst Athletics).
Will the reigning champs feel the losses of some of their stars? Or will they be posing yyr another picture like this come November? (Courtesy of Clarus Studios, Inc; Amherst Athletics).

Projected Record: 3- 5 (kidding Amherst parents, please don’t burn down my house) 6-2

Projected Offensive Starters: (*Five Returning)

 QB: Alex Berluti ’17

RB: Jack Hickey ’19

WR: Devin Boehm ’17*

WR: Nick Widen ’17*

WR: Bo Berluti ‘20

TE: Rob Thoma ’17*

OL: Elijah Zabludoff ’18*

OL: Mitch Arthur ’18*

OL: Austin Park ’17

OL: Kevin Sheehan ’18

OL: Jack Carroll ‘19

 Projected Defensive Starters: (*Six Returning)

 DL: Paul Johnson ’17*

DL: Niyi Odewade ’17*

DL: Isaiah Holloway ’17*

OLB: Andrew Yamin ’19

ILB: John Callahan ’18

ILB: Evan Boynton ’17*

OLB: Parker Chapman ’17*

CB: Nate Tyrell ’19*

FS: Jon Rak ’19

SS: Derek Ward ’17

CB: Stephan Soucy ’17

 Projected Specialists: (*Two Returning)

 K/P: Charlie Wall ’18*, Andrew Ferrero ’19

KR/PR: Devin Boehm ’17*/Myles Gaines ’17

 Offensive MVP: Jack Hickey ’19

Amherst certainly has a claim to the worst break of preseason, with starting quarterback and Player of the Year candidate Reece Foy ’18 suffering a torn ACL. Amherst is certainly loaded enough to remain in contention for the NESCAC crown, but those chances rest heavily on the shoulders of sophomore running back Jack Hickey. The Melrose, Massachusetts native shone as the change-of-pace option to senior Kenny Adrinka, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. With Adrinka gone and Foy sidelined, the Purple and White will likely have to rely on Hickey, with assistance from Nick Kelly (’17), for far more carries, positioning him for a breakout season.

Defensive MVP: Evan Boynton ’17

Like Hickey on offense, Boynton has been elevated to the top of Amherst’s defense by nature of graduated seniors. Amherst boasted a stellar corps of linebackers in 2015, with Tom Kleyn ’16 making First Team, and Boynton himself making Second Team. However, Kleyn and Jack Drew ’16, are off to wherever Amherst Football graduates go (Goldman Sachs, I assume), leaving Boynton as the senior leader of the unit. Additionally, Defensive Player of the Year Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16 graduated from the defensive backs, leaving a gaping hole for Boynton to fill, both for Amherst and possibly for DPOY accolades.

 Biggest Surprise of Camp: LB Andrew Yamin ’19

Defense has long been one of the calling cards of Amherst’s success. Offense as well, and special teams, but defense is certainly one of their three best units. Unfortunately, many of their toughest losses personnel-wise came on the defensive end, making new talent crucial to maintaining their dominance. Enter Andrew Yamin. The sophomore linebacker from Cheshire, Connecticut didn’t play much his freshman year, only garnering six tackles. But in a testament to how crucial an offseason can be in college football, Amherst lost two linebackers in Tom Kleyn and Jack Drew, allowing Yamin to work his way into a starting role. It’s these kind of stories that keep Amherst dominant year after year, they don’t rebuild after stars graduate, they reload.

 Biggest Game: November 5 @ Trinity

 Entering 2016 with a 19 game winning streak, the Artists Formerly known as the Lord Jeffs have to be considered the preseason favorite. However, the injury to Foy and the graduation of stand-outs like Fairfield-Sonn, Kleyn and Adrinka has Amherst looking considerably more fallible than they have in the last few years. And if you had to pick a co-favorite, the Bantams (and their FRESH new helmets) would have to occupy that spot. These two teams have dominated the league for much of the 2000’s, and this game offers Trinity the chance to fire a laser into the Death Star, so to speak.

Best Tweet:

 I know this guy power cleans a lot of weight, but he’s actually best known on campus for his poetry.

 

 Summary:

 I want to preface this, and every other article I write for the rest of the year, by saying that none of this matters. Brangelina is over and love is dead, and pretending that anything else is the case is ultimately a futile endeavor.

All right, back to football. Amherst has been the class of the league for much of the century thus far, but they’ve been particularly unbeatable in the last two seasons. In 2015, they led the league in scoring at 27.6 points per game AND in scoring defense at 9.9 points per game. They have won 19 games in a row, and back-to-back outright league titles.

But the Purple and White have more than a few obstacles to overcome if they want to continue their reign of terror. Even if Foy hadn’t gotten hurt, they lose six First or Second Team All-NESCAC performers. In addition to Adrinka, Fairfield-Sonn and Kleyn, they lose receiver Jackson “Professor” McGonagle ’16 (my nickname, not his), offensive lineman Sam Hart ’16 and defensive back Jaymie Spears ’16. These losses, in conjunction with Foy’s injury, make for a distinctly less intimidating Amherst lineup than last season.

Of course, the other side of that coin is that Amherst also returns six First or Second Teamers. Boynton returns to lead the defense as a DPOY candidate, as do senior defensive linemen Niyi Odewade ’17 and Paul Johnson ’17. On the offensive end, receiver Devin Boehm ’17 averaged over 100 all-purpose yards per game last season and seems poised for an incredible all-around season. Furthermore, running back Jack Hickey was stellar in small doses last season and might well be the best back in the league come November.

Amherst has a long way to go to continue their winning streak, but anyone counting them out hasn’t been watching NESCAC football over the last two years. At this point, the rest of the league feels about Amherst the way that Wes Mantooth feels about Ron Burgundy: they cold, dead hate them, but gosh darn it do they respect them.