Tag: John Swords

Quick Thoughts on Tuesday Night Basketball

Graham Safford '15 notched his 1,000th career point in a big win over the Brandeis Judges on Tuesday night.
Graham Safford ’15 notched his 1,000th career point in a big win over the Brandeis Judges on Tuesday night. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen and Bates College)

In the final tuneup for many teams before conference play begins on Friday, NESCAC teams aced every test against a tough slate of teams on Tuesday night. The biggest wins were road victories by Amherst and Middlebury over #21 Eastern Connecticut State and Plattsburgh State, respectively. Overall, the league went 7-0, showcasing the depth and quality of middle tier teams like Colby and Bates. Both Maine schools won close games against quality teams (Colby beat #23 Husson and Bates vanquished Brandeis). In 2013-2014 the NESCAC went 2-3 when the same slate of teams met, so the league now enters conference play with fewer cumulative losses than last season. Here are a couple of other quick thoughts to get you through Wednesday.

1. We might have no more 1,000 point scorers in the graduating class: Graham Safford ’15 (Bates) and Dan Wohl ’15 (Williams) crossed the mark earlier this week, but they might be the only two members of the 2015 class to reach that mark. Below are some other players with a chance to top 1,000 points for their careers. Keep in mind that the games remaining and necessary PPG totals do not include postseason games.

Keegan Pieri ’15 (Bowdoin) – 779 points. 13 games remaining. Must average 17 PPG. Currently averaging 13.0 PPG.

John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin) – 725 points. 13 games remaining. Must average 21.2 PPG. Currently averaging 12.8 PPG.

Ben Ferris ’15 (Tufts) – 802 points. 14 games remaining. Must average 14.1 PPG. Currently averaging 5.8 PPG.

Hunter Merryman ’15 (Midd) – 759 points. 15 games remaining. Must average 16.1 PPG. Currently averaging 16.1 PPG.

Dylan Sinnickson ’15 (Midd) – 635 points. 15 games remaining. Must average 24.3 PPG. Currently averaging 19.1 PPG.

Though Ferris is the closest, he is averaging only 5.8 PPG this season and appears to be a different player than he was earlier in his career, possibly because of cumulative injuries. Merryman is probably the best bet to make it to 1,000 because he is averaging exactly 16.1 PPG this season, though if Middlebury makes a deep run in the postseason don’t count out Sinnickson. He can score from anywhere. The Bowdoin duo, however, is a longshot to make it to 1,000.

If Safford and Wohl are the only ones who do make it, the 2015 class would pale in comparison to the 2014 class that saw, by our count, at least five players score 1,000. Aaron Toomey ’14 (Amherst), Joey Kizel ’14 (Middlebury), Matt Vadas ’14 (Conn College), Taylor Epley ’14 (Williams) and Michael Mayer ’14 (Williams) all certainly eclipsed the mark.

2. Middlebury is best when they play fast: The Panthers are a weird team. Dylan Sinnickson ’15, at 6’5″, is far and away their best rebounder. His 12.1 boards per game ranks fifth in the nation. Hunter Merryman ’15 is the best shooter on the team but is also one of the biggest players on the roster. Before yesterday’s game (when Merryman went 0-5 from deep), the sharpshooter ranked fifth in the nation in three-point percentage. Their pieces fit best when they push the pace. Jake Brown ’17 is arguably the fastest player in the NESCAC and he has a very good 2.6 assist/turnover ratio. He causes havoc when he pushes it and can then kick it out to Merryman or Matt St. Amour ’17. In the halfcourt the Panthers often seem to be tentative and they lack an offensive post presence. Even as big man Matt Daley ’16 works his way back into the rotation after suffering a stress fracture, Middlebury should be able to continue to run because Daley is very good at running the floor for a center, and freshman Nick Tarantino ’18 has shown a similar ability to run and stretch the floor as a big man. Plattsburgh State was the best team Middlebury has played yet and the Panthers were resilient whenever Plattsburgh tried to make a run in the second half. Their trip to Lewiston to play Bates is the best matchup on the opening night of NESCAC play, especially given how last year’s match up ended in heartbreak for the Panthers. You can see Safford’s game-winning trey at the 1:30 mark in this video.

3. The Rookie of the Year race is over.

Johnny McCarthy ’18 is really freaking good at basketball, folks. He is the best and most indispensable player on Amherst right now and he has an argument that he is performing at an All-NESCAC level. He leads Amherst in minutes per game with 32.3, the fourth highest in the league. He is second on Amherst with 12.8 PPG and has scored in double digits in each of the past four games. Where McCarthy really shines is on the defensive end. He uses his exemplary length to lead the NESCAC with 2.7 steals per game. Last night against Eastern Connecticut he played 38 minutes and matched up defensively for most of the game with Trachone Preston ’16 who came in averaging 20.2 points per game. McCarthy held Preston to 11 points on 5-20 shooting. In an overall weak freshman class, McCarthy is a stud.

4. Trinity is flying under the radar.

We say this almost literally because last night Trinity played a game that was not even on the NESCAC.com schedule. Only a notice from Trinity sports alerted us to the fact that they actually were playing against Manahattanville. After an easy win, the Bantams carry an eight game winning streak, the second longest streak after Middlebury, into conference play, but they have done so without registering any notable wins. Their formula is the same: beat teams up on defense, control the boards, and grind out points with Shay Ajayi ’16 and Jaquann Starks ’15. Whether they will be able to score enough against NESCAC teams is their biggest question. Trinity as a team is averaging a league worst 11.7 assists per game while it turns the ball over 15.7 times a game for a terrible 0.75 assist/turnover ratio. Unless they can improve on that, their eight game win streak will end Friday against Williams.

5. Conference play is going to be tons of fun: Usually in the NESCAC there is one or two signature games every weekend surrounded by mostly insignificant games. That is not the case at all this year. Viewing NESCAC games will be like the first weekend of March Madness where you are frantically switching between games trying not to miss anything crazy. Parity appears to be a very real thing. The top teams are worse, the middle teams are better, the bottom only has a couple of teams in it. Right now more than half a dozen teams are looking around the NESCAC landscape and thinking, ‘Why not us?’ Every team enters the conference season with some major question mark either related to personnel or lack of results on the court. The only thing that the first couple of months of the season have told us is that we don’t know what is going to happen next.

Power Rankings 12/12

First and foremost, I want to thank all of our readers who followed us so faithfully during the fall and early on here in the winter. We know that most of you are just like us, NESCAC students with a love of sports and a desire to see their classmates, peers and friends compete and succeed on the field. If you’ve been reading the blog closely these last couple months, you will know that I had the pleasure of spending this past semester in Sydney, Australia.

Yours truly crushing some surf down under. (Courtesy of Surf Camp Australia)
Yours truly crushing some surf down under. (Courtesy of Surf Camp Australia)

As a consequence, I could only follow the football and basketball action from afar and only contribute sporadically to the blog’s content. But I’m back now, ready to bring you even more analysis and opinion right here on Nothing but NESCAC, as the dramatic ‘CAC basketball season unfolds. Again, thank you for reading, and we hope you continue to do so.

Let’s get on to this week’s power rankings.

1. Bates (7-0)

It pains me to slot the Bobcats ahead of my very own Panthers, but Bates has simply been the most impressive team so far. They took down a Babson team early in the season that just dismantled the suddenly reeling (is that too strong a word?) Amherst Lord Jeffs and has wins over Bowdoin and Tufts as well. They’ve already shown that they are the team to beat in the CBB with two wins by a combined 26 points. And both Delpeche brothers have taken steps forward and become solid compliments to the likes of Graham Safford ’15, Mike Boornazian ’16 and guard Billy Selmon ’15. What’s more, the ghost of that Safford three to win the game at Middlebury last season still haunts my dreams. This team has it all. Experience, height, three point shooting (though Safford and Boornazian have started off slow in that regard), and something to prove after going 1-9 in the NESCAC last season.

2. Middlebury (7-0)

Middlebury has had some close calls already against questionable opponents (UNE and Skidmore), but they’ve found a way to win and that’s all that matters. This is a team that I believe will get better as the year progresses, as Jake Brown ’17 becomes even more comfortable as the point man, Matt St. Amour ’17 gets further removed from his knee surgery, Jack Daly ’18 gains more experience and, fingers crossed, Matt Daley ’16 gets healthy and realizes the potential that he has flashed the past two seasons. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 are doing their part, but the team is lacking an inside presence on both ends, something we knew would be a question mark before the season started.

3. Bowdoin (5-3)

This might surprise some, as there are two teams with only two losses, but there is a method to the madness. Two of the Polar Bear’s losses came to very strong teams in Bates and Babson, which are a combined 15-1, and as we know the only loss between them came when the Bobcats topped the Beavers. The loss to Colby isn’t a great one, but I believe it was just a hiccup. Remember, this was an NCAA tourney team last year that brought back an MVP candidate in the seven footer John Swords ’15. The health concerns we had now look foolish, as Swords is playing upwards of 29 minutes per game. With him on the floor, Bowdoin has a chance against anyone.

4. Williams (7-2)

Seven straight wins is a good way to start turning heads. With all the departures and two losses to open the season, this team could have gone into panic mode quickly. But then the Ephs proceeded to launch an offensive assault, scoring at least 82 points in the next six games. However, they allowed 69+ in five of those six games. I think it’s clear that this team is going to be fine offensively, but like Middlebury the biggest question is an inside presence on defense that can discourage shooters in the lane. That’s something that all the teams above the Ephs (with the exception of Middlebury until Daley gets healthy) all have.

5. Amherst (5-2)

Three days ago, Amherst might have had a claim to the top spot on this list, but I’m not here to talk about the past. The Lord Jeffs are still among the most talented squads in the NESCAC, but they are struggling to put it all together right now. Against Brandeis their perimeter defense was mediocre. The Judges were able to run a simple three-man weave at the three-point line until one of their guards was able to catch a defender napping and drive the lane (they also shot nearly 60 percent from deep, but a lot of those were way too wide open). Coach David Hixon will likely make sure that doesn’t become a trend, but for now it’s a concern. What’s more, defensive star David George ’17 barely saw the floor down the stretch of that game as Amherst needed to score points quick. George is a great rim protector, but he can’t be a liability on the offensive end if this team is going to be next-level.

6. Wesleyan (6-2)

The Cardinals have won handily in most of their victories, and competed in both losses, losing in OT to Williams and by eight to Curry. This team’s strength is a defense that ranks third in the NESCAC, but Wesleyan suffers from a lack of depth. Six players are averaging over 20 minutes per game, and after that no one tops 11 minutes. On the flip side they do have great balance in that group with four players in double digits scoring and a fifth, Jack Mackey ’16, averaging 9.9 points per game. Besides that OT loss against Wesleyan, we do not have much to go off of for this team.

7. Trinity (7-2)

The Bantams have a defense that has been just slightly more successful than the Cardinals, and because of their stinginess last season there’s reason to believe that the D will once again be very legit. On offense, the Bantams feature a lot of solid but unspectacular pieces. Their best strategy will be to milk clock and trust that they can shut opponents down. But will that be enough against the high-powered attacks of Middlebury, Williams and Amherst?

8. Colby (6-3)

As expected, Chris Hudnut ’16 is playing at an All-NESCAC First Team level, averaging a double-double thus far. What is surprising is how far teammate Luke Westman ’16 has raised his game. Last year, Westman was quiet but deadly, averaging 9.5 points per game on 65 percent shooting while tallying a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio. The junior point guard has upped the ante, however, becoming more efficient and taking better control of the ball, averaging 12.2 points per game (second on the team) on 68.2 percent shooting (incredible for a guard) and posting a 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. This team is loaded with offensive weapons, but are sort of the anti-Trinity, as they are allowing the second-most points in the league. Defense wins championships, fellas, and as fun as the Mules are to watch, they haven’t yet figured that out.

9. Conn College (5-3)

It’s been a bumpy start for the Camels, but the St. Joseph’s win was a good one and with three straight W’s, hopefully the team can get on track. Bo McKinley ’16 is doing a good job running the point and shooting the three, and Zuri Pavlin ’17 is a beast, as expected, averaging a double-double. But two exciting freshmen have come on and made this team dangerous. Six-foot-five Isaiah Robinson ’18 tops the teams in minutes and provides another big body in the Conn frontcourt, while Lee Messier ’18 has proven to be a sharpshooter from deep and leads the team in scoring. This young duo should only get better, making the Camels a candidate to play spoiler either late in the season or possibly in the first round of the NESCAC tourney.

10. Hamilton (7-2)

Hart who? The Continentals are 7-2! Hope abounds in Clinton. But wait, not so fast. Not only is Hamilton on a two-game skid, but only one of those seven wins came against a team that currently has a winning record, and the competition doesn’t get much better before the Continentals open up conference play against Amherst. As I predicted before the season started, Ajani Santos ’16 has really elevated his game, leading the team in scoring and and shooting almost 57 percent from the floor, but Zander Wear ’18 has not mad the immediate impact that we hoped he would, and overall there’s just a gap between Hamilton and the top tier of the NESCAC.

11. Tufts (3-6)

Despite all the optimism with the return of Tom Palleschi ’17 and the promise of a healthy starting five that couldn’t get on the court at the same time last year for very long, we were skeptical before the season started about whether this team would be as good on the court as it was on paper. Unfortunately, in the past few seasons the Jumbos have just been one of those teams that can’t match its talent with its performance. As the only team in the NESCAC with a losing record right now, Tufts was a default choice for the bottom spot in these rankings. They still have the talent to rise quickly through the ranks, and two former NESCAC Rookie of the Years, as well as one of the league’s most dynamic big men in Hunter Sabety ’17, but for right now they look doomed to another disappointing season.

Early Look at the Player of the Year Race

NESCAC Basketball is in full swing now, giving me a reason to love in the beginning of this long, devastating Vermont winter. Each team has played at least two full weekends of games against competition ranging from mediocre to a little under mediocre, so in true ESPN fashion, I think it’s a fair juncture to speculate about some end of season results. Here I handicap the early season race for Player of the Year. The difficult thing about writing this article at such an early juncture in the season is finding the delicate equilibrium (big words for a sports article, right?) between who is playing the best right now, and whom I think will be playing the best at the end of the year. I’ve done my best to balance those two ideologies here, but please be nice to me about my picks when this goes viral on ESPN.com.

Dan Wohl '15
Dan Wohl ’15 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

1. Daniel Wohl (Williams ’15)

Coming into the season, it was clear that the Ephs were going to need a new messiah following Duncan Robinson’s ascension to Michigan and Michael Mayer’s graduation. And early in the season, that door was definitively open. Williams opened the year with back-to-back losses to Southern Vermont and Oneonta State, reaffirming the many fears that Ephs fans had regarding the season. Then Daniel Wohl emerged. Averaging 18.1 points per game (with a 51/40/73 shooting line) to go along with a robust 9.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists, Wohl has provided a sense of toughness and consistency to pair with the streaky outside oriented game of partner in crime Hayden Rooke-Ley. Wohl’s all-around skills have been crucial to Williams remaining a power in the conference, and that is what catapults him to the top of this list.

Dylan Sinnickson (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Dylan Sinnickson ’15 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

2. Dylan Sinnickson (Middlebury ’15)

The third leading scorer and second leading rebounder in the league, Sinnickson appears to have made the leap that his precocious skill set had been foreshadowing for some time. Like Wohl, Sinnickson’s rebounding has been an underwritten but crucial aspect to the otherwise interiorly challenged Panthers, and his scoring has given them a go-to guy, who can create a shot out of seemingly impossible situations. Sinnickson has also shown a new propensity for clutch play, hitting a tough step back three and layup to slow down a run by RPI in Middlebury’s home opener on Sunday. His shooting has been less consistent than last year at only 31 percent from 3, but he has been going to the basket more authoritatively, and more outside shots will fall as the explosive Middlebury offense continues to gel. Sinnickson and Wohl have both been crucial to their team’s fast starts, and should continue to duke it out for postseason honors throughout the season.

Chris Hudnut '16 (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)
Chris Hudnut ’16 (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)

3. Chris Hudnut (Colby ’16)

Thus far, 2014-2015 can be seen as the year of the skilled forward in NESCAC, with Hudnut leading the charge. Although he spends far more time inside than Wohl and Sinnickson, he still has managed to put up 2.9 assists per game, pointing both to his high skillset and importance to the Colby offense. Those assist totals are coupled with 19.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, good for third and fourth in the league respectively. Hudnut’s impressive campaign is even further aided by 1.1 blocks and steals per game, again showing his impressive skill set for an interior player.

Hayden Rooke-Ley '15 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

4. Hayden Rooke-Ley (Williams ’15)

I had spent most of the past few days flip flopping on where to put Rooke-Ley on this list, going as high as third and as low as off the list entirely. It’s certainly hard to ignore a player who has a 12 three pointer game (as Rooke-Ley put up against Johnson State,) and has not missed a free throw yet this year, an absurd 62-62 streak. However, he also started off the year an abysmal 1-15 from three, and his 3.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game are far from the all around excellence of the other players on this list. Perhaps sensing these internal qualms, Rooke-Ley proceeded to put up 43 points on 10-14 from three in RPI on Tuesday night, a team that gave Middlebury something of a scare at home on Sunday afternoon. He had 31 points with 9 threes in the first half alone. This performance rocketed him to the top of the NESCAC scoring list, overtaking Sinnickson. Rooke-Ley certainly lives and dies by the three pointer, but he’s doing considerably more living than dying right now, and that deserves some early season recognition.

Graham Safford '15 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Graham Safford ’15 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

5. Graham Safford (Bates ’15)

Safford’s candidacy for POY has been hindered somewhat by the prevalence of skilled forwards, but there has been perhaps no player more crucial to their team’s success than him. Bates has turned a lot of heads this year with a 6-0 start, including a 101-85 win over UNE, who fell to Middlebury on a buzzer beater, and a 76-70 win over Colby last night. With 19 points, 14 assists and 8 rebounds, Safford’s performance against UNE was enough to put him in the Player of the Year conversation.   That kind of all around performance has been a staple of his campaign, as he is averaging 15.2 points, 5.8 assists, and 7.2 rebounds per games, an extremely impressive number for a guard. However, inconsistent shooting and a high turnover rate (4.7 per game) have caused Safford to fall on this list, careening towards the jaws of the big men on the honorable mention list.

Honorable Mention

Hunter Sabety '17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Hunter Sabety ’17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Hunter Sabety (Tufts ’17)

Like the players on the top five, Sabety has been the focal point of his team’s offense. Unfortunately, this is far less of a compliment for Sabety than it is for the other players. Tufts has had a disappointing start to the year after coming in as a pre-season favorite. Sabety battled injuries to start the year and hasn’t played to the dominant level that it looked like he might jump to after an impressive freshman campaign. Tufts will probably figure it out in conjunction with Sabety, and it is unlikely that he isn’t in the running for POY by the end of the season.

Johnny McCarthy '18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Johnny McCarthy ’18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Johnny McCarthy (Amherst ’18)

 Amherst has only played four games this year, against mostly underwhelming competition. Furthermore, they have such a balanced attack that no one player has stood out statistically on the Lord Jeff roster for the purposes of this award. However, the freshman McCarthy has stood out on the team for his excellent shooting (56% for the year) and scoring despite low minutes due to blowouts early in the year. He leads the team at 14.0 points per game in just 25 minutes, and should increase his output as Amherst’s competition gets stronger.

 

John Swords '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

John Swords (Bowdoin ’15)

The 7’0” Bowdoin center was originally in the top five, mostly on the strength of his rebounding and absurd 75% field goal percentage. However, an anemic performance by Swords (and Bowdoin collectively) against Babson coincided with Rooke-Ley’s ascension to push Swords out of the top five. It is still unclear as to whether Swords will be able to carry the Polar Bears’ inconsistent offense against more talented teams once league play begins, but the performance against Babson doesn’t bode well. Fortunately, he will soon have ample opportunity to prove me wrong.

 

As I implied earlier, these rankings are very early and are by no means final (although of course no Amherst players should be legally allowed to win it.) It will be my, and every NESCAC basketball fan’s, distinct pleasure to watch this incredibly talented crop of players battle it out as the season progresses.

Power Rankings: 12/3 Edition

Malcolm Delpeche '17 dunks against Colby (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Malcolm Delpeche ’17 dunks against Colby (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Still early on in the season, and having very few inter-conference games to look at, we give you the power rankings thus far. Given that it is early, last year’s results still linger but hold less merit now than our preseason predictions. This week we’ll look at what’s working  and what’s not for teams around the league.

1. Middlebury (6-0) – Quick out of the gate were the Panthers as they have earned this weeks number one spot. As predicted, Middlebury is led by senior Dylan Sinnickson ’15. The 6’5″ forward is in the top five of the NESCAC in rebounds per game (12.3) and points per game (19.5). That isn’t to say that Sinnickson is the only source of power for this team. Scoring 86.3 points per game, second to only Amherst, and only allowing 65.3 points per game from their opponents, Middlebury is rolling over most of their opponents thus far.

2. Amherst (4-0) – After only playing four games, Amherst has still proven to retain its high-octane offense that fueled its success last year. The Jeffs lead the league in points per game with 94, in part because of their depth on offense. In their first three games, their leading point scorer has been different every game, all with 17 points. In addition, two of their big-name players, F David George ’17 and G Connor Green ’15 are nearly matching each other in points scored, George with 13.7 and Green with 14.0, respectively.

3. Bates (6-0) – Bates has showed its determination to avenge last year’s disappointing season. Their victory over Colby last night asserted that they have exorcised their demons and are much more balanced as well going forward. Their early season victory over Babson is also looking better after Babson beat Bowdoin handily. A jack of all trades kind of team, they are middle of the pack in points scored (73.7) and points allowed (66.0), but so far their consistency on both ends of the floor seems to be a huge factor in their success.

4. Hamilton (6-0) – The story of Hamilton’s quick start stems largely from their success on defense. So far, they are first in the league in points allowed with 58.3 per game. The Continentals lead the league in steals (8.8) and blocks (5.7) per game, which has allowed them to get quick points in transition. Ajani Santos ’16 has been a large part in solidifying their defense with a league leading 2.6 blocks per game. It will be interesting to see how Hamilton’s defense holds up against the skillful stock of NESCAC players after Christmas break.

5. Bowdoin (4-1) – The Polar Bears are off to a good start this season, led by center John Swords ’15. The 7’0″ center is leading the team in points (14.8), rebounds (11.2), and blocks (1.6). Many of the worries about the defense have not come to roost as opponents are averaging only 59.6 points. The next few days will tell us a lot about how good this team really can be. Bowdoin faces Bates and Colby this week in non-conference action.

6. Williams (6-2) – Williams has had a decent start but has shown some weakness with the loss of the Michael Mayer ’14 and Taylor Epley ’14, along with Duncan Robinson ’17. After starting 0-2, the Ephs have put together a six game winning streak. While their offense has been strong, averaging 81.5 points per game, their defense has been a point of struggle for the Ephs. So far they have allowed 72.4 points per game, which is second to last in the league. Defense wins championships, as they say, so it is crucial for Williams to shore things up in this area if they want a shot at the championship.

7. Trinity  (4-2) – Although Trinity has all five starters returning from last year, so far they have yet to put it all together. Recent weeks have seen some improvement after a very uneven start. Seeing as it is still very early in the season, their is room for much improvement from the Bantams who are scoring under 70 points per game. The Bantams are still trying to find their star player (guard Jaquann Starks ’16 appears the guy most likely to step up) who can lead them down the stretch.

8. Wesleyan (5-2) – The Cardinals have looked very good on paper, scoring 75.6 points per game and allowing only 61.1, and although they have two losses, they are still in a good position for a successful season. Losing to Williams in overtime 85-77 shows that they can play with teams ranked above them.

9. Colby (5-3) – While records don’t tell the whole story, Colby’s less-than-desirable start has dropped them to number nine in this weeks rankings. They are a good 5-3 team at that, as they lost to Bates by only 6 and held them to under 80 points, Colby has plenty of time to gain ground in the league. Forward Chris Hudnut ’16 has been in control of this team, and the league at that, with 82 rebounds (1st in league) and 160 points (2nd in league) thus far. Look for him to continue to take control of this team later in the season.

10. Tufts (2-3) – The Jumbos are off to a tough start, despite all the talent they have going into this season. Their number one issue at this point has been on offense. Averaging a league worst 60.6 points per game has put more pressure on their defense to keep them in games. Tufts will need more consistent production from their starters. Center Hunter Sabety ’17 so far has put up 14.0 points per game, good, but not good enough unless he can find more offensive help from his guards.

11. Connecticut College (2-3) – Conn College rounds out the power rankings at number eleven, and so far they have struggled in both phases of the game. Offensively, they are ranked 8th with 73.2 points per game, and defensively they are at the bottom, allowing their opponents 76.4 points per game. Center Zuri Pavlin ’17 brings a force under the basket, leading the league in rebounds per game with 12.4, but like Tufts’ Sabety, needs more help from the supporting cast to get the Camels back on track.

Much to be Thankful for: Stock Report 12/1

 

The Thanksgiving holiday causes barely a blip in most team’s schedules, and the last week of November gave us plenty more of data points to judge teams off of. Overall it was a good week for NESCAC schools with the league going 15-4 combined. Five teams (Amherst, Bowdoin, Bates, Hamilton, and Middlebury) remain undefeated, and Tufts is the only team under .500 at 2-3.

Williams’ Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 has emerged as the best story of the season thus far because of his sweet shooting stroke. The guard is now a perfect 61-61 from the free throw line.

Williams plays at RPI tonight at 8 PM, and you can watch as Rooke-Ley goes for the record here.

Stock Up

Guard Joseph Lin ’15 (Hamilton): After Matt Hart ’16 transferred and Greg Newton ’14 graduated, Hamilton needed to revamp their backcourt this season. Lin was a backup last season who averaged 5.6 points and 1.8 assists per game last season. He has bumped up those averages big time to lead the team in points with 13.4 per game and assists with 5.0 per game. Somewhat amazingly, Lin is still coming off the bench while Greg Dwyer ’18 runs the first team.  The Continentals are off to a 6-0 start, though four of those wins have come by single digits. The younger brother of that other Lin is ensuring that Hamilton, the team that was predicted to be one of the weakest teams in the NESCAC, still has a lot of friskiness in it.

Trinity’s Defense: Just as the warning bells were starting to go off in Hartford, the Bantams appear to have righted the ship. In their last two games, Trinity has held their opponents to an average of 45 points per game. Both games were wins despite the Bantams scoring less than 60 points in both games. The Bantams will take any drop in offensive production as long as they keep grinding out victories. Jaquann Starks ’16 is leading the team in scoring though he is averaging less than two assists per game. Wednesday will be a good test for Trinity when they play Springfield, an NCAA tournament team a year ago.

Center Chris Hudnut ’16 (Colby): Consistent excellence is one of the hardest things for fans to appreciate, especially when that excellence comes in the form of unflashy play. Hudnut’s game reminds us of Tim Duncan, someone whose greatness was not properly understood for a long time. On the offensive end Hudnut is effective because he can score in so many different ways. He can work out of the pick and roll, attack from the elbow, or use his varied post game in the low block. He uses his size and strength to overcome athleticism that is really only slightly above average. Hudnut has abandoned the three pointer after shooting 64 threes last season. That commitment to playing inside helps explain his uptick in rebounding as well from 8.4 to 10.9 rebounds per game.

Stock Down

Guard Stephen Haladyna ’16 (Tufts): The junior small forward is the third leading scorer for Tufts with 8.2 points per game, but that is where the good news ends for him. He is shooting only 25.5% from the field, including an awful 17.4% from three. He has been taking poor care of the ball turning it over 2.6 times per game while only supplying 1.0 assist per game. He has seen his production tail off in the last two games in large part because he went 0-8 from beyond the arc. Tufts sits at 2-3 on the year now, and Haladyna is far from the only reason why they are in this funk. Still, he needs to shake off his early season shooting slump now for the Jumbos to get back on track.

Free Throw Shooting: For some odd reason, about half of the NESCAC is having an awful time at the line overall so far this season. Five teams are all shooting less than 66.6% from the line. For comparisons sake, Trinity had the lowest percentage last year and still made 67.0%. Tufts and Wesleyan are both barely over 60%, a level that is usually reserved only for big men. Though overall the league is not far off from where it was last year, most of that is because of the absurd rate that Rooke-Ley has taken and made free throws. Take out his shooting and the overall NESCAC percentage falls from a respectable 72.4% (only .3% off of last year’s overall total) to a much less impressive 71.0%.

Bowdoin Identity: The Polar Bears carved out an identity in 2013-2014 built around defense and rebounding. Center John Swords ’15 was the obvious reason for that being their strength, yet there were concerns that they would be unable to replicate the same template because of the loss of their senior class. Grant White ’14 and Andrew Madlinger ’14 were both well above-average perimeter defenders who allowed Bowdoin to play both man and zone. The early returns through four games for Bowdoin were good though. Opponents were scoring a NESCAC-leading 57.5 points per game while the Polar Bears out-rebounded teams by 14.2 boards per game. Then the Polar Bears laid an egg last night losing 68-48 to Babson. The offense was shut down for long stretches, but the real concerns are how Babson was able to control play. Bowdoin lost the battle for the boards by nine despite Babson only having one player above 6’5″. After starting 12-0 in 2013, Bowdoin needs to recover from their first loss quickly with games against Colby and Bates later this week.

 

It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint: 10 Thoughts on the First Games

We wanted to wait until every team had played a game before giving our initial impressions on the first looks that we got of NESCAC teams. It was a whirlwind of a first round of games that played out in the only way we thought it could: unpredictably.

1. Long way to March: One of the things that we harped on consistently during football was how quickly the season goes. Every football game has enormous ramifications. Obviously the same is not true for basketball as teams have months to come together as a team and gel before the NESCAC season begins. Teams as we see them now are going to look very different in a couple of months. Freshmen who barely got off the bench so far will end up influencing the conference race down the stretch while upperclassmen just getting comfortable in their roles will blossom. Do not overreact to a small sample size. Of course, that does not mean there is nothing to takeaway from these games either.

2. Injuries matter…to a point: A major takeaway was that a host of players did not suit up. Hunter Sabety ’17 missed Tufts’ first game but returned last night. Patrick Stewart ’16 will miss significant amounts of time because of a back injury, and Ajani Santos ’16 is out for an undisclosed time with an injury. Those losses all showed in their teams performance somewhat. Yet Keegan Pieri ’15 did not play for Bowdoin last weekend and the Polar Bears barely missed a beat. Pieri will be back this weekend making Bowdoin that much more dangerous, but the lesson is that teams are constructed in different ways. While Bowdoin had the personnel to survive without one of their two returning starters, other teams felt the crunch.

3. Trinity is a big fat question mark: It was surprising to see Trinity give up 83 points in their first game, but anytime your opponent goes 13-27 from three you are going to give up a lot of points. The good news was Trinity still won the game and doubled up UMass Dartmouth on the boards. When Salem State put up 102 on Trinity on Sunday then eyebrows across the league were raised. Known for their suffocating defense, the Bantams allowed Salem State to shoot 56.9 percent from the field and got out-rebounded.  Trinity allowed only 61.4 points per game last year, and with everyone back their defense was supposed to be even better. They should be able to turn things around on that end, but they are not a team built to score 80 points a game so they need to improve sooner rather than later.

4. Losses hurt NCAA chances: On an individual level for each team these losses are not devastating if the teams can turn it around, but the NESCAC’s general struggles could hurt the league when the selection committee meets for the NCAA tournament. The NESCAC is generally a three bid league though it often only gets two teams into the tournament. Everyone knows how much talent left from the NESCAC so there is reason to believe that the league could be down this year. The NESCAC tournament champion gets an automatic bid. If the NESCAC continues to rack up out of conference losses that will make a NESCAC team more likely to be overlooked for an at-large bid.

5. Tufts is an enigma: For those who follow college football, the term Clemsoning is familiar. Clemson always seems to lose one game every season where they far outmatch their opponent in talent level but makes a host of mistakes to get upset. Over on the D3Boards, user lefrakenstein used the term “Tuftsing” to describe how it is almost predictable that the Jumbos are struggling out of the gate despite all of the talent on their roster. Now that they are 0-2, Tufts has to figure out how to put together all of their talent quicker than other teams. They begin conference play against Middlebury and Amherst and cannot afford to lose both of those games.

6. Williams lacks depth: The Ephs have been deeply reliant on their starting five to provide pretty much everything for them so far. Coach Kevin App did a better job last night of managing his players’ minutes, but that was not enough to stop SUNY Oneonta from mounting a large second half comeback that pushes Williams to 0-2. Ryan Kilcullen ’15 has averaged 35 minutes per game after being a secondary role player last year. The freshmen should develop and be able to give the perimeter players time to rest, but Kilcullen will need to play more than 30 minutes a game all season unless Edward Flynn ’16 can deliver on the promise he has shown. Depth is not everything (Amherst basically only played their starters down the stretch last year), but it sure helps.

7. Aaron Toomey’s absence looms large: Of course there was no question that Amherst was going to miss Toomey, one of the most decorated players in NESCAC history, but with Jayde Dawson ’17 transferring in from Division-I, the hope was that the team would adjust its style of play. Dawson struggled mightily in his first game and was benched down the stretch last night, but he should turn things around. Even then he is not the same type of player as Toomey. I did not realize it until I watched Toomey live, but he had this unbelievable skill of being in complete control of the game no matter the circumstances. Reid Berman ’17 looked much more confident than he did last year and was a major reason Amherst came back, but he still had three turnovers including one where the defender simply picked his pocket and scored a layup the other way.

8. Shooting is at a premium right now: One of the reasons for teams struggling to score is futility from the outside. More than half of NESCAC teams are making less than 30 percent of their threes. A lot of that is because the premier shooters in the NESCAC graduated. The top five players from last year in terms of three pointers made all departed from the NESCAC so don’t be shocked if long range shooting is down throughout the year. Percentages should tick up somewhat as players get more comfortable shooting in game conditions.

9. John Swords ’15 is amazing: The seven foot center went out and played what is at this point typical John Swords basketball, averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds on the weekend. Let us clarify that the concerns about his health were very real. Yet that did not affect him this weekend for a very simple reason. Swords got new shoes that he started using this weekend that made the pain in his legs go away. Mind you that these are not special shoes made to alleviate pain or something like that. They are simply new shoes. Swords felt completely confident in his ability to do whatever he normally does on a basketball court this weekend. That is great news for Bowdoin and terrible news for everybody else in the NESCAC.

10. A juggernaut could lurk: My bold prediction during the preseason was that every single team would lose two games in the NESCAC regular season. No regular season conference champion has had two losses since the crazy 2000-2001 season when five teams finished at 6-3 (Hamilton was not in the NESCAC yet). After seeing every team play I stand by that prediction for now. However, given how many injuries Middlebury had this weekend, the fact they still went 2-0 means they had the most impressive weekend of anyone. The Panthers played without Matt Daley ’16, a player many think could be All-NESCAC if he stays healthy. Jack Daly ’18 looks like an instant impact player who gives Middlebury plenty of depth in the backcourt. The Panthers lost a lot of talent,  but the assortment of pieces in Vermont could gel together quite nicely.

Bowdoin Team Preview: Health is Everything for Polar Bears

Bowdoin Polar Bears

2013 Record: 19-6 (6-4 NESCAC), fourth in NESCAC, reached NESCAC quarterfinals and NCAA tournament first round.

Head Coach: Tim Gilbride, 30th season (414-296, .583)

Starters Returning: 2

F Keegan Pieri ’15

C John Swords ’15

Breakout Player: G Lucas Hausman ’16

Bowdoin’s top reserve from a year ago steps into a starting role that will require him to supply plenty of scoring from the shooting guard position. After only playing 17.2 minutes per game, the lanky junior should see upwards of 30 this year. His strength is getting to the rim, something Bowdoin has not had much of recently, and it is crucial that he again average over 80 percent on his foul shots. Hausman is the all-time leading scorer from his high school with 1750 points so he is no stranger to being a primary option. Yet he also has to be a creator for Bowdoin and improve on his assist/turnover ratio which was less than one last year.

Projected Starting Five:

Bryan Hurley '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Bryan Hurley ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

G Bryan Hurley ’15

Hurley is essentially a returning starter even though we can’t list him as one because he was injured for most of last year. He has now had more than a year and a half to recover from his knee injury and should be good to go, but his minutes might have to be managed over the course of the season. He averaged 9.4 points per game and 8.3 assists per game his sophomore year, and he will need to be the primary creator once again.

 

Lucas Hausman '16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Lucas Hausman ’16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

G Lucas Hausman ’16

Already covered him in the breakout player section, but another thing to keep in mind is Hausman’s shooting ability. Though he was efficient from the free point line, he struggled from deep, only hitting 31 percent of his threes. Spacing was crucial for Bowdoin last year so it would hurt the Bowdoin offense if opponents can cheat off him just a step and clog up lanes.

 

 

Keegan Pieri '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Keegan Pieri ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

F Keegan Pieri ’15

Sometimes overshadowed last year because of how others played, Pieri was his usual consistent self last year, but this year will see him in a bigger role. The past two years Pieri was the primary power forward offering range out to the three point line. Because of the roster makeup of this team, he will now play at the small forward position primarily and shoot a lot more threes.

 

 

Neil Fuller '17 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Neil Fuller ’17 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

F Neil Fuller ’17

The sophomore only played 12.1 minutes last year and will have to become a big two way player this year. He offers good size and can surprise you with his athleticism and playmaking abilities on both ends of the floor. He only shot 12 threes last year, but if Bowdoin wants to space the floor around Swords then he will have to get more comfortable shooting from deep.

 

 

John Swords '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

C John Swords ’15

He was a revelation last year, anchoring Bowdoin on both ends of the floor but especially on the defensive end where he played well enough to merit Defensive Player of the Year honors. Health will be a concern for him as well. He has been fighting through pain in practice in a couple of places in his lower half, never a good sign for a seven footer. If healthy, there is nobody who teams have to game plan more for in the NESCAC.

 

Everything Else:

Last year was a great season for Bowdoin that saw them compete in close game after close game. Fourteen of Bowdoin’s 25 games were decided by 10 points or less, and all of their losses were by six points or less with Bowdoin having a chance to tie or win the game in the final minute of all but one of those games.

The losses of Matt Mathias ’14, Andrew Madlinger ’14 and Grant White ’14 are big ones, but Hurley and Hausman are both very capable players. Jake Donnelly ’16 will be the third guard, and depending on matchups Coach Tim Gilbride could play three guards at once like he did for much of last year. Donnelly saw last year cut short because of injury and has played very little in his first two seasons.

Last year Bowdoin leaned heavily on their starting five, and the same will be true this year. Forward Matt Palecki ’16 will fight with Fuller for that power forward spot, but it is likely he comes of the bench more often than not in order to supply energy and rebounding. After Donnelly and Palecki the bench is somewhat of a question mark. Forward Jack Hewitt ’17 will get some minutes but there just is not a lot of space in the frontcourt. Guard Blake Gordon ’18 and small forward Liam Farley ’18 look like the two freshmen most likely to see playing time early.

Expect Bowdoin to be behind on defense but ahead on offense when compared to last year. White in particular was a player who allowed the Polar Bears flexibility in its lineups and defensive matchups as he could guard every position from point guard to power forward. Bowdoin wants to play man whenever possible, but expect them to go zone like they did last year for long stretches because Swords is an eraser in the middle. The zone makes it easier for him to stay out of foul trouble but leaves Bowdoin susceptible to teams that can move the ball well.

If last year is any indication, the difference between wins and losses will be trifling in many games. An injury that sidelines Hurley or Swords for a significant portion of the season would be almost impossible to overcome. If those two stay healthy then Bowdoin is fully capable of returning to the NCAA tournament.

Basketball Preseason All-NESCAC Teams

This year appears to be one of the most open races for All-NESCAC in recent years. Only John Swords ’15 (First Team) and Chris Hudnut ’16 (Second Team) return to the NESCAC after Matt Hart and Duncan Robinson transferred and the rest of the players graduated.

Each of us goes through our own individual First and Second Teams. We don’t want to ruin the surprise in order to make you watch the video, but we promise that some of the selections might raise a couple of eyebrows.