Amherst dominated this weekend, proving why their win streak has run to 20 games (Courtesy of Bates Athletics/Phyllis Graber Jensen)
Week 1 of 2016 was exactly what we’ve all been waiting for since the NESCAC football season ended last November. We had a couple blowouts in favor of familiar faces (Amherst, Middlebury, Trinity), and a couple of games that went right down to the wire. The Colby-Williams game was crazy, but not in a pretty way. This was a low-scoring, offensive battle…AKA, it was a battle to see who could have a worse day offensively. Luckily, it ended on a high note, as Colby needed their final drive to take the lead with under a minute left (read below for more details on the ending). Over in Somerville, MA, on the other hand, fans witnessed a battle between two great teams. It involved some terrific defensive plays, a 4th quarter comeback, and a whole lot of excitement as the Jumbos stormed back to win in front of their fans at the first home night game in Tufts football history. Below is our first stock report of the year – check it out to see whose stock rose and whose plummeted over the first weekend of the season.
Stock Up
Running Back Jack Hickey ‘19 (Amherst): If it wasn’t already certain, Hickey solidified himself as the goal line back for Coach Mills’ offense this weekend, punching in 3 touchdowns in Amherst’s absolute (yet unsurprising) domination of Hamilton this weekend. The 6’1” 218 pound sophomore fits the bill perfectly for short yardage situations, and he will certainly continue to get touches as Amherst nears the goal line. Hickey ended up with 67 yards on 18 rushes, but if it wasn’t a blowout these numbers might have been MUCH higher.
Linebacker Greg Holt ‘20 (Tufts): Holt surged onto the scene in the Saturday nightcap with a game-high 14 tackles. The freshman showed us that he is not going to gradually get his feet wet in college ball, he is going to dive headfirst into the action. It seemed like Holt was everywhere on Saturday, and if he keeps up that level of play along with fellow Jumbo linebacker Steve DiCienzo ‘18 (another Tufts linebacker who had 11 tackles of his own), the Powder Blue and Brown defense will be a nightmare for their opponents.
Quarterback Jared Lebowitz ‘18 (Middlebury): In the biggest blowout of the weekend, Lebowitz threw 5 touchdown passes and added a rushing touchdown to go along with them, accounting for all 6 of Middlebury’s touchdowns against the Polar Bears. There were some questions about whether the Middlebury aerial attack could be maintained after the departure of Matt Milano ‘16, but Lebowitz has silenced the doubters. Bowdoin is obviously in the lower tier of the conference, but still a strong showing from Coach Ritter’s gunslinger, who tallied 369 yards on the day.
Kicker John Baron ’18 (Colby): The Mules needed Baron to come up clutch on Saturday as he lined up for the game-deciding field goal with just seconds left against Williams. After a failed 2-point conversation earlier in the game, Colby was down one during the final possession. If Baron makes the kick they win, if he misses they lose. Last year Baron missed an extra point against Bates which ended up being the difference in the game (10-9), but this week’s NESCAC Special Teams player of the week has clearly wiped that from his memory. Two words: cash money.
Stock Down
Hamilton Offense: It goes without saying that the Amherst defense played a heck of a game on Saturday, but seriously, Hamilton, 168 yards of total offense? 6 rushing yards on 18 attempts?? You can’t combine these numbers with a -3 turnover differential and expect to win football games. Film, film, and more film is in store for the Continentals.
NESCAC Ball Boys: There were five fumbles in each of the Bates-Trinity, Colby-Williams, and Wesleyan-Trinity games on Saturday. FIVE. Interestingly enough, Trinity had more fumbles than Bates (Trinity-3, Bates-2), but it didn’t hurt them as the Bantams won handily, 38-7. However, both Wesleyan and Williams had more fumbles than their opponents, likely leading to each of their downfalls. Either the teams were a bit too accustomed to no-contact practices or the PSI was far too high in the game balls…you be the judge. All I know is that these coaching staffs are going to be extra hard on their ball carriers in practice this week.
Wesleyan’s Killer Instinct: The Jumbos looked pretty horrible for three quarters, but they hung around because Wesleyan just couldn’t put them away. After a touchdown with 6:50 to go in the 2nd quarter, Wesleyan seemed to hold a pretty commanding 14-3 lead. Things just looked and felt like a blowout waiting to happen. But the Tufts defense kept them in the game until the 4th quarter rolled around, and boom, a Cardinals missed field goal was followed up by a 33 yard run by Chance Brady ‘17, which set the stage for a 39 yard pass to Mike Rando ‘17 a couple plays later. From that point on, the Jumbos had the momentum, and it felt like Wesleyan was just trying to hold them off as opposed to continuing their attack.
Saturday is game day in the NESCAC so we decided to rank the league’s best places to play. The list takes into account each school’s stadium, fan attendance, and the overall ambiance of their game day experience.
#10: Bowdoin
Stadium: Whittier Field
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 1,928
(Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Hate to do it to the Polar Bears but there aren’t too many perks for playing at Bowdoin. For starters, Whittier Field, with its natural grass playing surface, is just brutal. Any precipitation turns the field to a mud pit. In terms of attendance, Bowdoin is about the league average. That being said, Whittier Field crowds are pretty hushed and there always seems to be this bleak feel to games. Bowdoin’s best attribute is a path through the woods that leads onto the field. The walk through the forest is very cool and “Maine-like”, but it’s not enough to rescue Bowdoin from the cellar.
#9: Colby
Stadium: Seaverns Field at Harold Alfond Stadium
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 1,450
(Courtesy of Colby Athletics)
Colby renovated their complex in 2009, installing a turf field, lights, and an up-to-date press box. Harold Alfond Stadium is beautiful, but the stadium is not the issue. Game days in Waterville, Maine are pretty lifeless as Colby is last in attendance. If the Mules start winning games and generating buzz, there’s no reason they can’t move up on this list.
#8: Tufts
Stadium: Zimman Field at Ellis Oval
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 3,650
(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Game days at Tufts are a total enigma. On one hand, I’m gonna come out and say that the Jumbos home field is the worst complex in the league. Ellis Oval looks like a run of the mill high school field. The bleachers are rusted, the press box is outdated, and the natural grass surface would make a Pop Warner team blush with shame. But once you get past the inefficiencies, you realize that what Tufts lacks in facilities, they make up for in atmosphere. Since breaking a 31-game losing streak in 2014, the Jumbos have led the NESCAC in attendance. And when you have a crowd that blends a bunch of smart kids with local Massholes, things can get pretty loud. Tufts hosts Wesleyan this Saturday in the school’s first ever night game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them break 7,000 in attendance.
#7: Wesleyan
Stadium: Corwin Stadium at Andrus Field
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 2,574
(Courtesy of D3Football)
Andrus Field is a little hippie and free spirited, but then again, so is Wesleyan. Home to Wesleyan football since the early 1880s, Andrus Field is the “oldest continuously used collegiate football field in the United States.” No, the playing surface isn’t great and temporary bleachers have to be installed each Fall, but the Cardinals rank 3rd in home attendance and their crowds are sneaky rowdy. The best thing about Andrus Field is that it’s literally right in the center of campus. So even if you hate football, there’s no escaping game day at Wes.
(Side note: Andrus Field is also home to the Cardinals baseball team, which makes Wesleyan the most economically savvy school in the NESCAC.)
#5: Bates
Stadium: Garcelon Field
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 1,739
(Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Bates College feels more like an elite New England prep school than a college. The campus is absolutely beautiful in the fall and Garcelon Field fits right into that landscape. In 2010, the school installed field turf, lights, and a new press box giving the stadium a much needed facelift. When you couple Bates’ charming stadium and with fall perfect fall weather of Lewiston, you’ve got the NESCAC’s fifth best place to play.
#5: Hamilton
Stadium: Steuben Field
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 1,479
(Courtesy of Hamilton College)
Just like Bates, Hamilton College (Clinton, NY), has a bit of a prep school flair to it. Also just like Bates, Hamilton has a cozy stadium that fits its campus perfectly. Steuben Field is outfitted with a field turf and a nifty little grandstand. Now, while the Continentals drew only 1,479 fans per game in 2015, consider this: there can’t be more than like 4,000* people in the entire town of Clinton if you include Hamilton students. That means nearly half the town’s population is showing up for game days. With that in mind, we can safely say that there is no fan base more devoted to their team than Hamilton’s.
*population sizes are up for discussion
#4: Middlebury
Stadium: Youngman Field at Alumni Stadium
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 2,413
(Courtesy of Middlebury Football).
If you’re the outdoorsy granola type, Middlebury is your prime game day destination. For starters, there is no greater landscape in the NESCAC than the one adjacent to Alumni Stadium. Middlebury’s home turf is nestled in the Vermont countryside and gives everyone in attendance a gorgeous view of the Green Mountains. The complex is bowl shaped, giving fans the choice to watch the game either from the grandstand, or the surrounding hills. The Panthers draw a solid crowd, but as nice as Mid’s stadium is, school officials are still leaving so much on the table. Ben & Jerry’s is in your backyard guys, let’s wake up and strike a deal here.
#3: Amherst
Stadium: Pratt Field
Avg. 2015 Attendance: 1,467
(Courtesy of Bowie Gridley Architects)
Game days at Amherst College look like a J.Crew convention with a little football sprinkled in. In all seriousness, credit Amherst with igniting the facilities arms race that is upon us. In 2013, a revamped Pratt Field was unveiled to the public and immediately set the standard for modern day NESCAC football stadiums. Everything from the raised stadium seating to the field house perched on top of the hill is perfect. While Amherst fans had the second worst showing last season, it’s important to note that attendance was under 1,000 for the first two games (Bowdoin and Middlebury) and over 2,000 the last two (Wesleyan and Trinity). Their message is clear: we’ll show up for the games that matter.
#2: Williams
Stadium: Weston Field
Avg. 2015: Attendance: 1,665
(Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
“If we’re not gonna beat Amherst anytime soon, we might as well build a better stadium than theirs.” Folks, that is the exact* mantra behind the creation of Weston Field. This place is to the NESCAC what the Rose Bowl is to the PAC-12. There’s not much else to say other than Weston Field is stunning. I know the team is not great. I know their attendance is down. It doesn’t matter. This place is just too nice.
*read: highly debatable
#1: Trinity
Stadium: Jesse/ Miller Field (AKA “The Coop”)
Avg. 2015: Attendance: 2,941
(Courtesy of D3Football)
Throughout this list, some schools have relied heavily on their atmosphere, while others have been lauded for their superior facilities. We haven’t really seen a school with a great stadium and an electric fan base…until now. For starters, “The Coop” just underwent renovations and recently installed new field turf and a jumbotron.
A jumbotron…in the NESCAC…let’s let that one sink in a little.
In terms of atmosphere, the bleachers are extremely close to the playing field. This is actually great for the thousands of riled up Trinity student screaming insults from the stands. The Bantams have the most ruthless fan base in the league and when you pair that electric atmosphere with some pretty outstanding stadium upgrades, it’s no wonder that Jesse/Miller Field is the #1 place to play in the NESCAC.
Will the Polar Bears find themselves this season? Or will they remain “Lost.”
Bowdoin College Polar Bears
Projected Record: 1-7
Projected Offensive Starters: *Seven Returning
QB: Timmy Drakely (‘17)*
RB: Nate Richam (‘20)*
WR: Nick Vailas (‘18)*
WR: Garrett Thomas (’18)
WR: Liam Blair-Ford (’17)
TE: Bryan Porter (‘18)*
OL: Kyle Losardo (‘17)*
OL: Brian Mullin (‘17)*
C: AJ Mansolillo (‘19)*
OL: Ben Jurkic (‘17)
OL: TBA
Projected Defensive Starters: *Seven returning
OLB: Andre Joyce (‘20)
MLB: Latif Armiyaw (*18)*
OLB:Andre Jett (‘20)
DL: Steve Anderson (‘17)*
DL: Danny Wanger (‘17)*
DL: Nadeem Elhage (‘16)*
DL: Jay Mobley (‘20)
DB: Reeder Wells (‘17)*
DB: Jibrail Coy (‘16)*
DB: Cameron Rondeau (‘19)*
DB: Henry Little (‘18)
Projected Specialists: *One returning
K: Andrew Sisti (‘18)*
P: Chen (‘20)
Offensive MVP: Nate Richam ‘20
Yeah, he’s a freshman, but might as well go bold. Bowdoin was last in the league in rushing, rushing attempts, rushing touchdowns, and yards per carry, averaging 2.2 yards per carry, totaling under 500 yards, and racking up just 3 TDs in 2015. That was partly due to Tyler Grant getting hurt (Grant has hung up the spikes, and won’t be playing this year). In 2014, Tyler Grant ran for 893 yards, and 8 TDs, as a sophomore. He got more touches than anyone in the NESCAC that year. Needless to say, his injury caused some problems.
Richam, a West Hartford, Connecticut native, has drawn rave reviews this preseason. Yes, he’s a freshman, but the Polar Bears desperately need to establish a running game this year. Richam’s quick, he’s strong, and he has that ability to make people miss that you can’t coach. Bowdoin threw the ball 177 times last year, third most in the league, but historically, Bowdoin likes to run the ball, so look for last season’s historic lows in rushing production to at least return to normal levels this year.
Defensive MVP: Reeder Wells ‘17
This is the least exciting defensive MVP pick possible. Reeder Wells hasn’t put up huge numbers in his career, but he’s as steady as they come. He’s never missed a game. He’s the captain on defense, he’s a Texan, and he makes tackles. He’s had at least 36 tackles every year. He only has 1 career interception, and he’s never had a sack, but his value and consistency will make him the most valuable defensive player for the Polar Bears this season.
Welcome Back: Liam Blair-Ford ‘17
By the numbers, Blair-Ford hasn’t done much as a Polar Bear yet. His career receiving numbers aren’t very big, and he’s only played 10 career games, missing extended time due to injury. Despite all that, the word on the street is that he’s in great shape, and he’s gonna play a big role this year.
Biggest Game: September 24th, at Middlebury
Yeah, it might be strange to pick the opener. Think about it this way. Bowdoin hasn’t finished a season above .500 since over a decade ago (2005). The Bears need to win one of the first two games, and while Amherst at home would be a huge, huge win, objectively they have a better chance taking down the Panthers, considering Amherst’s won 19 in a row, and three straight NESCAC championships. If they win one of the first two, they’ll be in a good spot.
Best Tweet:
It’s gotta be this video of a barely comprehensible Latif Armiyaw looking really, really hot. You’re looking at the owner of the Bowdoin Track & Field 60m dash record there folks. As quick a linebacker as you’re gonna find in the NESCAC.
It’s hard to have an offseason more brutal than Bowdoin’s. They lost the usual seniors (but actually retain a handful 2016s, playing an extra year due to injury, like Nadim Elhage, and Jibrail Coy). After that though, things get bleak. They lost Philippe Archambault ‘19, arguably their best defensive player, a French-Canadian beast, who has returned to Canada. They’ve lost a handful to retirement, be it due to injury, or simply quitting, including former impact running back Tyler Grant ‘17. Perhaps worst of all, the team lost a handful of valuable players in a plagiarism scandal: 5 or 6 guys, most of whom figured to receive significant playing time, will miss the season.
So yeah, a rough offseason, but the freshman class shows great promise,and they return a lot of veterans with starting experience, which shouldn’t be overlooked. There’s a lot of buzz about the energy level and hunger that this team has. A duo of sophomore baseball guys, Brandon Lopez ‘19, and Ejazz Jiu ‘19 have joined the team this year, and Jiu ‘19 looks like he’s going to have an impact at wide receiver. He’s a big target. Richman ‘20 has looked great at running back, and Chandler Gee ‘20 is a really fast slot receiver who has impressed so far. On defense, a trio of freshman linebackers, Joe Gowetzski (ILB), Christian Pridgen (OLB), Sydney Guerrier (OLB), look like they could do some damage.
The group of returners is solid. In particular, the success of WR Nick Vailas ‘18 and TE Bryan Porter ‘18 will play a big role in the team’s chances. Vailas had almost 600 receiving yards and added 6 TDs, while Porter had over 400 receiving yards with 5 TDs. Porter made 2nd team all-NESCAC last year as a sophomore, he was one of only two Bowdoin representatives, and he’s also an excellent blocker.
Two of Bowdoin’s top offensive linemen, Kyle Losardo ‘17 and Brian Mullin ‘17, return as well. When you ask Bowdoin guys about top offensive players, they often point to those two as being weapons on the line.
The keys for this team are going to be health, running the ball, and stopping the run. Healthwise, they’re already extremely thin, and if they start to lose talented veterans, they’re going to be in a tough spot. Richam and sophomore RB Andrew Tichy will need to have big seasons in order for the Polar Bears offense to work, and the defense is going to have to at least be average, as opposed to league-worst, against the run. Bowdoin won’t have much room for error, but if they can limit injuries and mistakes, they should have the pieces to put together a decent season, with a little luck.
Amherst is primed and ready to take the crown back to Amherst again, but that will be no easy task after some big losses, including injured quarterback Reece Foy (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics).
Editor’s note: Liam O’Neil is one of our newest writers, and he will be taking on one of our newer features, a weekly “Top 10.” Liam hails from southern Connecticut and has loads of home state pride, which I anticipate will show in his writing. Enjoy Liam’s first article for NBN.
With the 2016-2017 NESCAC football season quickly approaching, it’s time to take a look at which games you should have circled on your calendar. Like most years, the landscape of the NESCAC should remain the same with perennial powers Amherst and Trinity as the overwhelming favorites to win the league. Tufts and Wesleyan are both dark horse contenders and Middlebury should round out the top 5. From there, there is a steep drop in quality teams which further promotes the notion that in relation to football, the ‘CAC is a league of two tiers. Anyhow, whether or not they are played for championship ramifications, tradition, or just plain bragging rights, here are the top 10 games to watch for the 2016-2017 season.
#10) Bowdoin @ Colby (November 12th)
While neither team will be a title contender, the rivalry between Bowdoin and Colby is important to both schools and the state of Maine as a whole. On the final week of the season, look for both teams to try and end their year on a high and improve upon disappointing campaigns in 2015.
#9) Bates @ Bowdoin (November 5th)
The CBB Championship should be determined on November 5th when Bates travels to face Bowdoin. I recently saw a joint-practice with Bowdoin and Tufts and while the Polar Bears looked sharp in “7 on 7,” once the action turned to “11 on 11” it quickly became apparent that Bowdoin lacks the size and strength on the interior lines to compete with the league’s best. As of right now, neither team is talented enough to contend for for a NESCAC championship, so for the moment, the CBB trophy will have to suffice.
#8) Middlebury @ Hamilton (November 5th)
The scheduling gods must hate Hamilton. The Continentals have the pleasure of traveling to Amherst and Wesleyan in weeks 1 and 2 and hosting Trinity in week 3. While the team has made great strides under third year coach Dave Murray, I don’t see them escaping their early season gauntlet with a win. Luckily for Hamilton, things get a little easier after week 3. So much so in fact that I predict the Conts’ will be riding a three game win streak into their week 7 matchup with Middlebury. The Panthers lost reigning NESCAC player of the year Matt Milano (Connecticut guy) to graduation and could be ripe for the upset in this game. If Hamilton can find a way to win, it will show they’re for real.
#7) Williams @ Amherst (November 12th)
Amherst should roll in this game, but I would have felt bad not including “The Biggest Little Game in America” on this list. As the longest active rivalry in history, it’s always great to see the conference get a shout out on College Gameday. Plus, the game is aired on NESN which is just one small step away from primetime ESPN. Speaking of Williams, the cupboard isn’t exactly bare. The Ephs have fallen on tough times as of late but I always thought their struggles could be attritubuted more to poor game planning and less to a lack of talent. Expect that to change as former St. Lawrence head coach Mark Raymond takes the reigns in Williamstown.
#6) Amherst @ Middlebury (October 8th)
As a team looking to replace several key players, Middlebury could not have picked two better teams to open their season with. The Panthers host Bowdoin in Week 1 and travel to Colby in Week 2 which means that QB Jared Lebowitz will have a couple soft matchups to settle into his new role as the starter before a big tilt vs. Amherst. Both teams should be unbeaten coming into this game and it will add a little excitement in what looks to be an otherwise mundane week 3.
#5) Amherst @ Wesleyan (October 22nd)
Worst case scenario is a 4-0 Amherst traveling to play a 3-1 Wesleyan. But if Wesleyan beats Tufts in the opener, it will be a battle of unbeatens. Regardless, this should be the best team Amherst will have faced to this point.
#4) Tufts @ Trinity (October 15th)
In last years contest Trinity QB Sonny Puzzo engineered a frantic last minute drive to send the game into overtime. While the Bantams prevailed in OT, Tufts was literally seconds away from dropping a monumental upset. Tufts has its best team in school history but the Jumbos won’t be sneaking up on anyone. With this year’s contest being at Trinity, I’d say the Bantams will have the edge.
#3) Trinity @ Wesleyan (November 12th)
The game between Trinity and Wesleyan will be the marquee matchup in week 8. Both schools have a longstanding tradition of playing each other the final week of the season, and this year’s tilt could have serious championship implications. It’s not out of the question to think a one loss Wesleyan could upset undefeated Trinity in the last week and send the whole league into chaos.
#2) Wesleyan @ Tufts (September 24th)
On September 24th under the lights in Medford, MA, one team’s championship hopes will crumble. Wesleyan is coming off a disappointing campaign that saw them go 5-3. However, the Cardinals led by “Mr. Everything” Devon Carrillo (Connecticut guy), are more mature and hungrier than ever. On the other hand, this year’s Tufts team is the most talented squad coach Jay Civetti has ever fielded. The Jumbos are loaded with upperclassmen at key positions. If Tufts can contain Carillo, they should win a close one. But then again, that’s a pretty tough task…
#1) Amherst @ Trinity (November 5th)
For the second year in a row, the NESCAC championship should come down to the week 7 matchup between Amherst and Trinity. Amherst is riding a 19 game win streak into this upcoming season and they should still be undefeated coming into this game. You’ve gotta think it makes Coach Jeff Devanney crazy to see his Trinity teams have to take a back seat the last couple of years. The game should be an all out battle and in a conference that lacks a championship game, November 5th at the Coop will be as good as it gets.
OF Ariel Kenney ’18 is Amherst’s top hitter with a .376/.445/.512 slash line, and helped the Purple & White clinch a playoff berth with their win in the final game of the series against Wesleyan. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
In years past, the NESCAC West Division has been lacking in any meaningful regular season drama outside of seeing whether Amherst or Wesleyan would finish first. The East has been the site of all the action with teams jumping in and out of the top two. Those roles were reversed this year with the East playing out their games without much consequence and the West up in the air until the bitter end.
In the end, though, Wesleyan and Amherst sit at the top yet again. However, they do so with identical 7-5 conference records. That’s a far cry from two teams that went a combined 58-14 over the past three years. The two played each other this weekend, and Wesleyan came into the weekend looking like they were the team in danger of missing the playoffs with a 5-4 record. Then, on Friday Wesleyan won over Amherst and beat Williams beat Hamilton. Entering Saturday the West standings looked like this:
Wesleyan 6-4
Amherst 6-4
Middlebury 6-6
Williams 5-5
Hamilton 3-7
A Saturday sweep by Williams of Hamilton combined with either Amherst or Wesleyan sweeping the other doubleheader would have resulted in the Ephs making the playoffs. Heck, even if Williams split they could have snuck in with an Amherst sweep because the Ephs beat the Cardinals twice. A three-way tie scenario still would have favored the eventual playoff teams, but the point is that even though Wesleyan and Amherst made it back to the playoffs, things were close to going very differently.
Of course, they didn’t go differently. And I feel confident that the Cardinals and Amherst really are the two best teams in the West Division, though the gap has shrunk. They have much better overall records and are still more talented. But the divisional race was awesome to watch unfold in such a tight way. The playoffs don’t start for another 10 days, but we still have a lot of regular season baseball to enjoy before then.
Stock Up
Starting Pitcher Peter Rantz ’16 (Wesleyan)
Rantz clinched the Cardinals’ place in the playoffs by going all eight innings in the first game of the Saturday doubleheader. The ace had struggled his past two weekend starts, losing both games and throwing up a 6.35 ERA in them. Things looked bad as he allowed three runs in the bottom of the first. From there, he turned things on and scattered six hits over the next 7.0 innings without too many problem spots. Holding Amherst scoreless for seven innings is some pretty nifty stuff for the senior, and it is the type of resilient performance we have grown to expect from Wesleyan.
Wesleyan
It’s a cliché at this point (see my last sentence about Rantz), but the Cardinals really do seem to have some sort of secret sauce or something for making things happen. They won the series opener for the first time this weekend by hitting four home runs. Then they rallied from that three run deficit to win in extra innings in the second game. That was their second extra inning win in a NESCAC game this year, and they have trailed late in a few of their wins. Marco Baratta ’16 has not slowed down from his scorching start, taking home NESCAC POTW honors and having a OBP of .538. Other big performances included that of first baseman Jordan Farber ’16, who hit four homers in conference and shortstop Guy Davidson ’16 who has been great at the plate again this year. The Cardinals ended up winning the West for the fourth straight year. Now that they are in, the two-time defending champions are the team that no one wants to play.
Centerfielder Cody McCallum ’16 (Tufts)
The senior has carried on the strong tradition of Tufts outfielders with a first name starting with C and a last name starting with Mc, which began with Connor McDavitt ’15. Seriously though, McCallum has been huge for the Jumbos this year, and he was great this weekend. He batted .400 in their four NESCAC games (the Jumbos had to makeup a game against Bates). He also had one RBI in each of them. He leads the league in walks with 25, making him the perfect leadoff hitter. That crazy walk rate is why he has a .455 OBP.
Stock Down
Stealing
I think the stolen base is one of the most exciting plays in baseball, but this year the NESCAC basically has decided that stealing bases is stupid. The numbers for elite base stealers are way down. Trinity’s Nick Pezella ’16 leads the league with 15 stolen bases. Last year four players had more than that. Just four players are in double digits this year compared to 13 in 2015 (there are two guys at nine and a bunch at seven, though, so a few more should reach that plateau). However, it isn’t just the top guys stealing less. This is a league-wide change. Consider that Wesleyan has led the league with 46 steals this year, and yet five teams (half the league!) had more than that last year. Overall teams have stolen 27.8 percent less bases this year to date than a year ago. That is a huge drop, and while there’s still a lot of games to go, it would take Dee Gordon rediscovering his eligibility and playing the next few weeks for the Wesleyan Cardinals in order to get back to last year’s steal numbers (something that I bet Dee would be happy to do right now). I don’t know whether to give better catchers or slower runners the credit, but the evidence is there that managers had good reason to pull in the reins on their players this year. Teams got caught stealing 120 times last year; this season, already 118.
Maine Schools
It’s unfortunate for this trio of schools that they are all in the same state, because when things go bad for all of them we almost have to write about it. Bowdoin, Colby and Bates all finished 4-8, far away from the playoffs. Is baseball harder in Maine? I kid, of course. What killed all of them was their inability to hit. The three teams finished last in the NESCAC in both OPB and SLG. We expected that it was going to be tough sledding for all these teams, and they showed a good amount of fight. The problem going forward is that all of them are graduating a lot of talent. Bates is probably the best positioned for next year in terms of making the playoffs, but in the longer term I like the youngsters on Bowdoin to return the Polar Bears to real prominence.
Matt Palecki ’16 helped the Polar Bears to a 2-0 weekend and a NESCAC playoff bid. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
What a weekend for Maine rivals, Bowdoin and Colby, as the two swept Conn College and Wesleyan to both get into the NESCAC tournament with Bowdoin as the No. 7 seed and Colby the No. 8 seed. Both teams have shown plenty of promise this season, but it wasn’t until this weekend that we saw how good these teams can really play. When I watched these two go to overtime back on January 30, it was hard to imagine that both of them could possibly miss the NESCAC tournament. Now they both got in and are beginning to look dangerous.
Let’s start with Colby. The Mules looked dead at 1-6 in conference after blowing a last minute lead at Middlebury last weekend. Then they finished with three straight wins, with their two this weekend being comfortable ones. The all-senior starting five gets all the press, but senior guard John Gallego ’16 deserves some recognition himself. The quick backup is one of many short NESCAC point guards making an impact this season (Jaquann Starks ’16, Jack Dwyer ’18, Tyler Rowe ’19, etc.). He had nine points apiece against Wesleyan and Conn College. Against Amherst, Colby’s first NESCAC win, Gallego had 13 big points. The senior is a difference maker for the Mules.
The real surprise is probably the defense that Colby has played. I’ve said it before, but it doesn’t make sense that a team with five seniors starting should be so bad defensively. Yes, they play three big men essentially in their starting lineup meaning they give up quickness to teams. Still, they should be able to make up for it by playing as a unit on that end. This weekend they did, keeping Conn College to 73 points and then Wesleyan to just 64 points. The Mules certainly benefitted from some poor shooting on the part of the Cardinals considering Wesleyan shot 7-33 from three point land, but give credit to Colby for coming up big on the defensive end this weekend after having that be their Achilles Heel in some games.
As for Bowdoin, a team dear and near to my heart, they got big contributions from their role players while relying on their big two. Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19 combined averaged 48.5 ppg in the two wins. And while I know it sounds crazy, neither of them shot THAT well this weekend, going 8-25 (32 percent) from the three point line. What they did do exceptionally was get to the free throw line and finish there. The two went 27-30 from the charity stripe, and they drove Wesleyan and Conn College crazy with their ability to get calls.
However, the real stars, especially yesterday, were point guard Tim Ahn ’19 and center Matt Palecki ’16. Ahn looked like he was losing his spot in the rotation to Jack Bors ’19 a few weeks ago, but an injury to Bors has kept him out and opened the door for Ahn to play his best basketball. Coaches often say that by the end of the season, being a freshman isn’t an excuse anymore. Ahn hasn’t played like a freshmen down the stretch. He did something I haven’t see him do all season: attack and finish at the rim. He has shown the quickness to get past his initial defender, but until yesterday Ahn wasn’t looking for his at the rim. He scored 10 points in Friday and Saturday’s game.
Meanwhile, Palecki was his typical workmanlike self with 12 points and 14 rebounds against Conn College. In both games this weekend, Bowdoin controlled the boards, something they haven’t done much of this year. Palecki makes up for his lack of leaping ability by using his wide body to keep offensive rebounders out of the paint. He used that same wide body to slow down the likes of Joseph Kuo ’17 and Zuri Pavlin ’17 with great effectiveness. While Palecki can sometimes fall in love with ill-advised threes, he does a lot of the dirty work for the Polar Bears.
One problem for Colby and Bowdoin is they now have to go on the road in the NESCAC playoffs. For both of them, three of their four conference wins came at home. Whatever, we’ll get there in a couple of days. The two Maine teams made good and salvaged what looked like lost seasons. Even though they are the seventh and eighth seed, Bowdoin or Colby is capable not just of upsetting a top team but going all the way for a Cinderella run.
Stock Up
Shooting Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin)
Averaging 26.5 ppg in a NESCAC weekend would be incredible for most players, but it’s just another normal weekend for Hausman at this point. He finishes the 2015-2016 regular season averaging 25.1 ppg overall and 26.0 ppg in NESCAC games. Those are historic numbers: the best averages that anybody has put up on record in the NESCAC which goes back to 2000. Hausman is far from a perfect player; he does go to a D3 school after all. His defense is subpar, his rebounding numbers are not good, and he doesn’t create well for others on offense. One or two plays every game he looks like a legitimately bad basketball player. But to deny how freaking good he is at putting the ball in the basket is stupid. Nobody makes tough shots like he does, and he makes those shots efficiently to boot. Regardless of what happens in the NESCAC tournament, Hausman is the Player of the Year.
Small Forward Stephen Haladyna ’16 (Tufts)
The Jumbos had just one game this weekend, and they took care of business against Williams to secure a home NESCAC playoff game. Haladyna led the way with 22 points, the only time this year that he has scored more than 20 points in a contest. He had been pretty quiet in NESCAC games before Friday. Tufts is at their best when they are able to be balanced scoring the ball. Guys like Haladyna and Ryan Spadaford ’16 need to be big part of the offense for Tufts to make a run. The Jumbos sit at 19-5 overall and look to be in good shape for making the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens in the next two weekends, but a win again over Williams would secure their spot for sure I think.
Stock Down
Middlebury Defense
The Panthers weren’t quite up to the task this weekend, and the most disappointing thing has to be the number of points they let up. Amherst scored 83 and Trinity had a blistering 97 points. Now, the Bantams were clearly hot shooting the ball (55.7 percent from the floor in this game), but it is still a little disappointing to see Middlebury give up that many points in regulation. The two games weren’t even that exceptional in terms of pace as Amherst shot the ball 60 times and Trinity 61 times. The two losses aren’t surprising in and of themselves, but I wasn’t expecting their defense to be the major problem. The Panthers have to get that sorted out by this weekend.
Conn College
What a tough end to the season for the Camels. They made so many strides this season, but they end up falling just short of making the playoffs. The Camels pushed Tufts and Amherst to the brink and had a quality home win over Middlebury, but they ended up losing their final five NESCAC games to finish 3-7. The Camels are big, tough on defense, and capable of scoring in bunches. They lose senior leader Bo McKinley ’16, a player that has been a constant through some very dark days for the program. Credit to him for doing anything he could to make the team better over the past few years. This team will be a terror for teams next year in large part because of him. And they will be a terror with their young nucleus having another year to grow. Zuri Pavlin ’17 and Dan Janel ’17 are a load to handle in the frontcourt. Tyler Rowe ’19 and Lee Messier ’18 are going to score a lot of points, too. Conn College missed the playoffs this year, but they will get there soon enough.
The celebration was short-lived for the Bobcats on their senior night, and they’ll need to find some inspiration if they are going to make the NESCAC playoffs. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)
Being on break this past weekend, I followed the NESCAC action from afar even as my Middlebury classmates played their final regular season home games in Pepin Gymnasium. What stood out to me over the weekend was the continued separation between the top five and bottom six, and the Cardinals darkened that line with a buzzer-beating win over the sixth-place Ephs. As usual, though, there were close games even between the “elite” and the “also-rans”, but in this case all of big favorites won their games. So, while there is a little bit of variation in the top and bottom tier, there will be no teams crossing that chasm until one of the bottom feeders can emerge as a consistent adversary.
1. No. 19 Amherst (18-4, 6-2, Last week: 1)
Yes, they lost to Tufts, and yes, it wasn’t particularly close, but let’s not overreact. Look, Amherst isn’t a perfect team, and they might slip up here and there, but I still hold them as the favorite as of this posting today. Not to excuse Amherst from that game, but Tufts was at home, and the Jumbos shot 8-20 from three, and in case you forgot, Amherst is leading the world in three-point field goal percentage defense (27.4 percent allowed), so that’s anomalous. What’s more, Jeff Racy ’17 is in an epic slump right now (he was 0-6 from deep against Tufts), and I think that actually bodes well for Amherst going forward for two reasons. Racy’s slump has highlighted the ability of Connor Green ’16, Jayde Dawson ’18 and Johnny McCarthy ’18 to put up big points on any given night. They don’t need one guy to score 20 per game for them to win. Secondly, Racy is going to come back. He might not shoot near 60 percent from beyond the arc as he did early in the season, but he won’t go 0-6 very often, either. This team is still very good. As Adam pointed out though, the rotation continues to shorten, so the lack of bench production from the Purple and White remains a concern.
2. Trinity (16-6, 7-1, Last week: 2)
Two games, two easy wins, and one over the Amherst-slaying Tufts Jumbos in Medford. Even with Ed Ogundeko ’17 hampered, Trinity cleaned up the boards in both games. In stark opposition to Amherst, Trinity can get scoring from everyone up and down the lineup, which, in the end, might be the reason that Trinity prevails in a back-to-back NESCAC Semis and Finals scenario. For now, though, the head-to-head loss to Amherst still speaks loudly, and even though Tufts went on to beat Amherst the night after losing to Trinity, there’s the fact that the Jumbos may have been in panic mode and needing a win over Amherst. Don’t underestimate a team in a must-win situation.
3. Middlebury (14-8, 6-2, Last week: 5)
Spots 3-5 have become so muddled, but I took a glance over the Panthers last eight games and realized that if Andrew Groll ’19 hadn’t canned that short jumper as time expired to beat the Panthers, they’d be a lock for this spot and be 7-1 in conference play. Now, of course, we can’t just ignore that said nail in the coffin happened, that Middlebury has also fallen to Conn. College, that they only beat Colby by two points last Friday at home, and they haven’t yet played Amherst or Trinity. Still, as it stands today, they’re looking pretty good. They seem to have a bit of a fighter’s mentality this season, whereas in years past there was more of a sense that if the star wasn’t playing well or they were down at half, that you could write it off. Not anymore. I don’t have much wealth to wager these days (especially after some sour Super Bowl bets), but I’d put down a few bucks on Middlebury going 1-1 this weekend against the top two teams, which would mean a home playoff game in Pepin Gym.
4. No. 20 Wesleyan (18-4, 5-3, Last week: 3)
As I said in last week’s ranks, things are trending up for the Cardinals, so why did they move down a notch? Simply put, things are so close between Middlebury, Wesleyan and Tufts, and head-to-head scores move the needle ever so slightly. Tack on a nailbiter against Williams, a team that the Cards should beat handily on paper, and Wesleyan drops to No. 4. Still, the contributions of Jack Mackey ’16 and the solid eight-man rotation continue to give me confidence in this team. Their ability to pull out the victory against Williams suggests that they are a mature team, and that’s the difference between them and a green Ephs squadron.
5. No. 25 Tufts (17-5, 6-3, Last week: 4)
The win over Amherst and loss to Trinity sum up to a pretty par for the course weekend. Good for the Jumbos, as a 2-0 performance would mean bye-bye home game, but they were able to stay in the conversation with one win. In the loss to the Bantams, they breakout of Shay Ajayi ’16 is troublesome for Tufts. How was Tom Palleschi ’17, by far the league’s best shot blocker and a tough interior defender, not able to slow down Ajayi? Perhaps the key to beating Palleschi is to give the ball to someone quick who can step away from the basket and shoot jumpers, but how many teams have that guy? Not Amherst, maybe Middlebury if Matt Daley ’16 is making shots from 15-foot jumpers, sort of Wesleyan if Rashid Epps ’16 is going well, but if Joseph Kuo ’17 is in the game them Palleschi is apt to cover the latter, while Kyle Scadlock ’19 or Jack Simonds ’19 might be that guy, but as a whole their teams probably aren’t good enough to beat Tufts. So often in basketball it comes down to matchups, and it just might be that Trinity has the perfect one to exploit what Tufts can do on defense.
6. Williams (14-8, 4-4, Last week: 6)
They continue to solidify that No. 6 spot, even in defeat, as a buzzer beating loss to the Cardinals is nothing to tuck your tail over. They also just squeaked out a win over Conn. College, but the Camels are darn good, in case you hadn’t noticed. The biggest thing holding this team back is youth. Losing Mike Greenman ’17 has been, I think, an unquantifiable loss. He probably wouldn’t have put up massive numbers on the stat sheet, but his presence would have been invaluable, and we might be talking about the “top six” teams instead of the “top five” if he were still playing. As it stands now, two freshmen, Kyle Scadlock and Bobby Casey ’19, are playing starter minutes, while two others fit into the tail end of the rotation, and the rest of the rotation is pretty inexperienced, as well, with the exception of Dan Aronowitz ’17.
7. Conn College (12-10, 3-5, Last week: 9)
Sort of how I did with Middlebury, I look at Conn’s last X number of games and say, I could easily have seen this or that turning out differently and we might really have something here. Of course, you can often say that with any team, but Conn’s play has really stuck out to me. They’re young, they’re inexperienced, and they could easily fade off like most young teams, and yet they just keep competing. And I’m moving them up in the rankings, despite losing five straight games. Those five games – a neck-and-neck two-point loss vs. Tufts; a disappointing 105-89 loss vs. Mitchell College; an eight-point loss to Wesleyan, in Middletown, in which the Cardinals had to go 20-30 from the floor in the second half to win; a comeback attempt fallen short at Western Connecticut; and a lead let slip to Williams, 70-67. As the Camels get a little more mature, they’ll learn how to win those games, and by next season they could be hosting a playoff game.
8. Colby (14-8, 2-6, Last week: 7)
My Mules keep holding on. I shouldn’t call them “my Mules,” because I don’t want to play favorites (other than Middlebury), but I have stubbornly believed that they can turn it on all season long. They almost beat the Panthers, and they just got by the Continentals in the season’s highest-scoring NESCAC game. That’s just who Colby is – a run ‘n’ gun squad that will struggle against the better defenses. The bright side for them is that Chris Hudnut ’16 has been playing consistent minutes which gives them a chance in any game, and Pat Stewart ’16 has, at least for now, surpassed Racy as the best three-point shooter in the NESCAC. What’s more, Stewart isn’t a one-trick pony. As if this offense wasn’t dangerous enough already.
9. Hamilton (11-11, 2-6, Last week: 11)
Things are pretty ugly down here in the bottom trio right now, but none of these teams are quite dead yet. The Conts have a brutal weekend ahead with Trinity and Amherst coming up, but it’s not ridiculous that a 3-7 team could squeak into the playoffs, so they still have plenty to play for, and they showed it last weekend. The 15-point win over Bowdoin was consummate. Hamilton outshot the Polar Bears in every facet, matched them on the boards and only let Bowdoin ahead for the first 3:15 of the contest. The enigma that is Ajani Santos ’16 looked like an old version of himself, only better, with 25 points and seven boards. Unfortunately, the magic wore off in the game against Colby. Santos only played 17 minutes and had four points, but it was the frosh Michael Grassey ’19 bursting onto the scene with 23 bench points. Groll collected a double-double, as well, with 18 points and 10 boards, but Colby just outshot Hamilton in the OT period to pull away. This is another young team gaining valuable experience this season, and getting a playoff game would be huge for their development.
10. Bowdoin (10-10, 2-6, Last week: 8)
The loss to Hamilton really stung this weekend, and the Polar Bears didn’t put up too much of a fight against Middlebury. At this point we have a pretty good grip on what Bowdoin can do. They only go as far as Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19. Against Middlebury, that pair combined for 52 of the team’s 69 points. On the season they have scored 51.3 percent of Bowdoin’s points, by far the highest percentage for any duo (Vinny Pace ’18 and Tom Palleschi have tallied 37.6 percent of the Jumbos’ points). That can lead to some exciting games to watch, but it’s not a recipe for success, especially not at this level.
11. Bates (10-13, 2-7)
Bowdoin just creamed the Bobcats last night, but even if that hadn’t happened, Bates would probably still be in this spot. They’ve lost three in a row, seven of eight, and eight of 10. Things have really deteriorated. Bates opened the season with six straight games of 79 or more points, and had a five-game stretch where they scored 73+ four times. In the nine games sense, Bates has scored less than 70 in seven of those games, and the 73-51 loss to Bowdoin last night was probably the team’s low point. All of that is a long way of saying that Bates’ season has been in free fall for awhile. Other teams have figured out how to force Mike Boornazian ’16 into a lot of tough shots, and he’s had some bad shooting nights because of it with no one to pick up the slack. As I said before, none of these teams are dead yet, but it will take a monumental effort and a lot of luck for Bates to sneak into the postseason.
Johnny McCarthy ’18 will be tasked with shutting down Tufts’ top scorer Vinny Pace ’18. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
So I went 2-1 yesterday with two games cancelled due to snow. Tufts did not show up even though Jaquann Starks ’16 was a non-factor and Ed Ogundeko ’16 played just 14 minutes. Meanwhile, Trinity played at a consistently high level throughout the game, and after capitalizing on some Tufts mistakes in the last eight minutes or so, the Bantams pulled away. I didn’t watch either of the other two games, but more on those will come next week. As for my Bowdoin-Hamilton and Colby-Middlebury predictions, I have not wavered. We’ll see what happens today.
For the rest of the weekend we are going to see some teams fighting for their lives. Bates doesn’t get a much easier game today than it did yesterday as they follow up a massacre courtesy of Amherst with a matchup against Trinity. If the Bobcats want a shot at making the playoffs they’re probably going to need to win today. Bowdoin, also on the bubble, could put themselves in a great position to make the playoffs with a sweep this weekend. Meanwhile, Colby and Hamilton, each with just one win, can pretty much count themselves out if they lose their Sunday matchup. The contest between Williams and Connecticut College tomorrow should be an outstanding game between two solid teams, both of whom are trying to claw their way into the middle of the pack as the postseason nears.
The game of the weekend is now Tufts vs. Amherst, a matchup which will likely decide the top seed for the NESCAC tournament one way or the other. Barring an upset down the road, a win against Tufts should cement Amherst’s first place finish in the regular season, but a loss will give Trinity that title to lose. For Tufts, winning this game will do them a huge favor when the NCAA selection show comes around. In the shorter term, there are two huge questions that Tufts will answer today 1.) Will they get home-court advantage in the playoffs? If they lose, that may be out of their hands. 2.) Is this team a true contender in the NESCAC tournament? Sure, the Jumbos have beat up some of the bottom teams in the division, but besides Amherst, they’ve lost to the next three best teams. They have the talent, but can the put it together? This is a must win confidence-wise for Tufts.
Here’s what you’ve got to look forward to:
Two to Watch
1.) Guard Connor Green ’16 (Amherst): Whether or not he has been playing well leading into a game at Tufts, whenever Amherst rolls into Medford, Connor Green gets hot. Last year he put up 29 in the playoffs at Tufts in an incredible shooting performance. Green is a streaky shooter, but Amherst is going to need him on Saturday in order to maintain their position atop the NESCAC.
2.) Guard Tyler Rowe ‘19 (Connecticut College): Rowe will take on the Ephs who will be coming off a battle against Wesleyan, and it is vital that he gets going. Rowe has been an energizer for the Camels all year long, and he must continue his high level of play against Williams. If Rowe can’t get going, Conn is going to have a tough time keeping up with Kyle Scadlock ’19 and Dan Aronowitz ’17 from Williams.
Potential Game of the Week
Amherst vs. Tufts, Medford, MA, 2:00pm
Like I said above, this is a must win for Tufts. Talent-wise, these teams are very even overall, but each team excels in different areas. They both play one post and 4 guards, and they both look to run and gun. I’m excited to see who controls the pace of the game. The game will be decided by three sets of matchups:
Connor Green ’16 exploded for 29 last year in Cousens Gym. Can he do it again? (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
The matchups of the bigger guards on both Amherst and Tufts will certainly be intriguing: Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (6’5”/205lbs.) vs. Vinny Pace ’18 (6’5”/185lbs.); Jeff Racy ’17 (6’5/210lbs.) vs. Stephen Haladyna ‘16 (6’5”/180lbs.); Connor Green ‘16 (6’4”/205) vs. Ryan Spadaford ’16 (6’4”/200lbs.). The key matchup here is McCarthy and Pace. McCarthy is known as one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, and he is just as long as Pace. If McCarthy can shut down Pace, Amherst has a very good shot to win this game. However, I think all three matchups are pretty even, and I don’t think that any one of these six players is going to completely take over the game. If there’s one who I might consider a sleeper here, it’s Spadaford. He’s been pretty consistent throughout the season on the boards as well as scoring the ball. Look for him to punish Amherst if they sag off him on defense. Overall, however, I think there is a little more firepower amongst the Amherst wings here, and like I noted above, Green has shown his ability to completely take over the game in Cousens Gym before.
Advantage: Amherst
Tufts has to get Tom Palleschi ’17 involved early and often against Amherst. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)Amherst is going to need David George ’17 to step up in this one. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
I’ve waited for the low post matchup between Tom Palleschi ’17 and David George ’17 all season, and finally the day is here. Palleschi and George are the top two shot blockers in the league, but Palleschi leads by a full block per game. Palleschi also tops George in rebounds per game and points per game. Though it appears that Palleschi is much more effective by the numbers, one thing to consider is George’s giant leap in productivity in conference play as opposed to his non-conference production. I still think Palleschi can outmaneuver George down low, but this should be a much more intense matchup than the stats might suggest.
Advantage: Tufts
Tufts is going to need a big game from Tarik Smith ’17 on Saturday. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
The point guard matchup between Tarik Smith ’17 and Jayde Dawson ‘17 will be extremely important to the outcome of this game. With such even matchups on the wings and down low, it is up to the point guards to separate the two teams. Dawson is Amherst’s top in-conference scorer, largely due to his demonstrated ability to get to the free throw line. However, Smith not only gets to the line more than Dawson, but he actually blows Dawson’s 27 free-throw attempts out of the water with a jaw-dropping 47 attempts. Tufts has played one more conference game than Amherst, but regardless, if Amherst allows Smith to get to the hoop as frequently as he has been doing so, Tufts is going to pull the upset here. When Smith drives, he creates open perimeter shots for Pace, Spadaford, and Haladyna. Last weekend against Bates, Palleschi even got in on the three-ball action, knocking down 3/3 shots from deep. I don’t think Dawson can stop Smith from creating, so I’m giving the matchup win to Smith.
Advantage: Tufts
This game is going to be a barnburner. After facing Trinity las tonight, fatigue could potentially factor in for Tufts, but it could also prove to be beneficial that they played a tough game last might. Maybe the ex-Lord Jeffs will be sluggish after their blowout win in Lewiston, but maybe the opportunity to get some rhythm shooting the ball is all Amherst needed. I know Tufts took a beating yesterday, but that’s exactly why I think they are going to bounce back and take down Amherst.
Prediction: Amherst 84 – Tufts 87
More Predictions
Bowdoin 80 – Middlebury 74
Colby 83 – Hamilton 76
Trinity 78 – Bates 64
Williams 80 – Connecticut College 82
(My predictions on the snowed out games from yesterday are still the same)
Dan Aronowitz ’17 looks to lead Williams past Wesleyan this weekend. (Courtesy of Williams College Athletics)
A couple of the games tonight are between teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any tightly contested games. The game to watch is without a doubt Trinity at Tufts, as both teams are still vying for the top spot in the NESCAC, but Colby-Middlebury and Williams-Wesleyan could also be pretty great games. Some familiar names will lead their teams to easy victories, while other teams will only have a chance if their stars can put up the big numbers I’m anticipating. Here’s what’s in store for the weekend:
Friday Games
Bowdoin vs. Hamilton, Clinton, NY, 7:00 pm
As we all know, Lucas Hausman ‘15 is the top scorer in the NESCAC. Bowdoin relies heavily on Hausman’s average of 26.7 PPG in conference play. In fact, in their two biggest blowout conference losses against Tufts and Trinity, Hausman has only scored just 11 and 14 points respectively. Conversely, in their two conference wins against Bates and Colby, he scored 42 and then 35 points. On the other side, Hamilton is coming off their first conference win in which they took down Middlebury on a last second layup by Andrew Groll ’19. Groll has turned into Hamilton’s star in conference play, putting up 11.7 PPG and pulling down 8.7 RPG. Despite Groll’s aggressive play down low, I don’t see anyone stopping Hausman, and I don’t think the Continentals can keep up with Bowdoin’s scoring.
Prediction: Bowdoin 79 – Hamilton 65
Colby vs. Middlebury, Middlebury VT, 7:00 pm
After Colby got out to a hot 10-1 start, they have now dropped to 13-7 due to their 1-5 conference performance. However, this record is a bit deceiving because aside from getting blown out by Tufts, their other conference losses are by margins of just four, nine, two and three. Additionally, Colby beat Amherst by two up in Waterville this past weekend. Meanwhile, Middlebury is 4-2 in conference with no win by a difference of more than 10 points and a total differential of just three points in their conference losses to Conn College and Hamilton. I like Middlebury in this one because of their ability to win close contests, but I would not at all be surprised if Colby pulled out the W. Look for Matt St. Amour ’17 to carry the Panthers to victory.
Prediction: Colby 74 – Middlebury 77
Amherst vs. Bates, Lewiston, ME, 7:00 pm
At face value, this looks like the easiest matchup of the day to predict, but then again, I never would have picked Colby to beat Amherst a couple weeks ago. However, in that game, Amherst shot a measly 33.3% from the field, 26.5% from deep, and a dreadful 52.9% from the free throw line. I don’t see any way that Amherst shoots that poorly again, and they proved that last weekend by shooting 50.9% from the field against Trinity’s usually stifling defense. For Bates to win this one, they are going to need to shoot the lights out, something they have not done consistently in NESCAC play.
Prediction: Amherst 84 – Bates 64
Williams vs. Wesleyan, Middletown, CT, 7:00 pm
Williams and Wesleyan are sitting at just about the same spot in the NESCAC standings right now, but Wesleyan is definitely higher in the power rankings considering they’ve reeled off three straight conference wins against Tufts, Bates and Conn College. This is a huge chance for Williams to make a jump in the standings, and with tough games against Conn College and Tufts coming up, they will have a tough task if they want to grab home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. If Dan Aronowitz ’17 doesn’t have a huge game, the Ephs are in trouble. I’m expecting Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 to dominate the paint and lead the Cardinals to victory.
Prediction: Williams 68 – Wesleyan 79
Game of the Night
Trinity vs. Tufts, Medford, MA, 7:00 pm
This tilt is the game of the week, however, if Tufts wins, the game between Amherst and Tufts on Saturday could be the battle for first place in the NESCAC. Tufts and Trinity couldn’t be two more opposite teams. Trinity is a defensive powerhouse that leads the NESCAC in PPG allowed at just 68.0 PPG, while the Jumbos are an offensive juggernaut, leading the NESCAC with 87.4 PPG. On the flip side, Trinity scores just 76.5 PPG while Tufts gives up 73.3 PPG, which leads me to believe that this game is going to come down to Trinity’s ability to slow down the Tufts attack. There are two big matchups to focus on in this one:
1.) Tom Palleschi ’17 vs. Ed Ogundeko ’17 – these two big guys are two of the best in the conference. They average about the same number of PPG in conference games (14.7 and 14.5 respectively). Palleschi edges Ogundeko in blocks and Ogundeko tops Palleschi in rebounds. This should be a VERY enticing matchup.
2.) Vinny Pace ’18 vs. Shay Ajayi ‘16/Rick Naylor ’16
I’m honestly not sure who is going to guard Pace due to the matchup problems that the four-guard lineup of Tufts produces. The extra 25 pounds that Ajayi has on Pace could wear him down throughout the game, but I think that this will allow Stephen Haladyna ’16, a threat in the paint, to take advantage of his height advantage over Naylor. If Naylor takes the challenge, Pace’s height and length will allow him to shoot over Naylor with relative ease. I expect Trinity to throw multiple looks at Pace, but either way, he presents matchup problems.
At the end of the day, I don’t see Trinity being able to keep up with the scoring of Tufts unless Palleschi gets into foul trouble. If that happens, Trinity could definitely win this game. Otherwise, I think the Jumbos give themselves the opportunity to play Amherst for first place on Saturday.
Amherst Coach Dave Hixon shouldn’t look so worried. The Lord Jeffs haven’t moved from the top of the ranks. (Courtesy of Mark Box/Clarus Studios)
As always, college basketball, and particularly the Little Ivies, will enjoy a number of upsets throughout the season and well into the playoffs, but in the NESCAC this season it’s hard to even know what to consider an upset. Amherst and Tufts seem to have separated themselves from the pack in the early going, and Hamilton has a long way to go to climb out of the cellar, but otherwise it appears that any team could win against anyone on any given day. Spots 3-10 in these rankings are especially close, and will probably look completely different next week.
1. Amherst (11-1, 2-0, Last week: 1)
The Lord Jeffs sit at No. 9 in the D3hoops.com national rankings. Thus far they have been outstanding, leading the league with 88.6 ppg while shooting 48.8 percent and have been able to hold teams to a respectable 72.0 ppg. They are atop the leaderboard of the NESCAC Conference, and remain the front runner to win the NESCAC tournament. Their only blunder so far came in a 79-69 loss to Rhodes College (Ky.), who are only .500 so far, but play a tough schedule. Look for Connor Green ’16 to continue to lead the charge with his 15.3 ppg. Swingman Jeff Racy ’17 is shooting 55.3 percent beyond the arc and supplying 14.6 ppg. Last year’s Rookie of the year, guard Johnny McCarthy ’18, is spending the most time on the hardwood and putting up 13.1 ppg.
2. Tufts (11-2, 2-0, Last week: 2)
After rolling over Bowdoin and Colby to open up NESCAC play last week, Tufts climbed the national ranks to No. 17 from No. 22 the week before. They have two losses, coming against a very good MIT team and 12th-ranked WPI. Vinny Pace ’18 continues to power their offense averaging 19.2 ppg. Though still a very young team, they seem unfazed and stick to their fast-paced offense with the lone big man, Tom Palleschi ’17, doing the dirty work down low with 48 blocks on the season. Tufts ranks second in the league in scoring with 86.1 ppg and their starting five all average at least 10.0 ppg. They get to the line more than any NESCAC team and they hit their free throws, sitting atop the ‘CAC at 77.2 percent from the stripe. Tufts will take on Middlebury tonight and Hamilton tomorrow, two games that the Jumbos should win; and two wins that would push their winning streak to 10 games.
3. Wesleyan (12-2, 1-1, Last week: 3)
Their first NESCAC game was a loss to Middlebury, a team that just seems to have the Cardinals’ number. Wesleyan will be put to the test tonight as they travel to western Massachusetts to take on Amherst and then head to Hartford for a game with Trinity tomorrow. Point guard BJ Davis ’16, who has averaged 19.0 ppg, will need to be on if they want to take down the No. 9 team in the nation. Wesleyan will have two chances to down the Jeffs, as they will host Amherst on Monday, but only tonight’s game will count towards the conference standings. Aside from the loss to Middlebury, the Cards were able to fend off Hamilton with an overtime victory and took down Williams in a scrappy non-conference game. Wesleyan plays good defense, keeping teams to 67.8 ppg, second best in the NESCAC. Joseph Kuo ’17 is the man holding it together down low for the Cards scoring 12.1 ppg and pulling in 109 rebounds this season. It is tough to say where Wesleyan will end up this year, but they should certainly be in the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fighting for a top-four seed as the season wraps up.
4. Trinity (9-4, 1-0, Last week: 8)
Don’t sleep on the Bantams. What’s that old saying? Oh yeah, Defense Wins Championships. The Bantams lead the pack when it comes to defensive statistics – number one in scoring defense (64.7 ppg allowed) and rebounding margin (+10.8). Though they stand at 9-4 on the season with a few weak losses, they opened up NESCAC play with a big one-point victory over Williams. Coach James Cosgrove implements fundamental basketball, and Trinity will grind with the good teams. As 2015 First Team All-NESCAC guard Jaquann Starks ’16 and the Trinity shooters heat up for the long haul of NESCAC games and the playoffs, the Bantams should be in fine shape. Eric Gendron ’18 is leading the league in three point percentage at 59.3 percent. With a frontcourt of Ed Ogundek0 ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16 that is combining for 26.0 ppg and 19.0 rpg and point man Andrew Hurd ’16 commandeering the floor and leading the league in assists, everything is in place for another wild playoff run.
5. Connecticut College (10-3, 2-0, Last week: 9)
Not taking anything away from their 2-0 NESCAC record, but I will need to see them compete against big dogs of the NESCAC before they can crack the top four. They won close games vs. Hamilton and Middlebury, two very questionable teams this year. Ten wins at this stage is almost unheard of for the Camels, but they will need to continue the hot streak against a gritty Trinity team tonight in Hartford. Look for guards Lee Messier ’18 and Tyler Rowe ’19 to be the point scorers as they have combined for 27.0 ppg thus far this season. Messier can be lethal with his 40.2 percent mark beyond the arc. Conn is a consistent offensive team averaging 82.2 ppg, but their defense will likely not hold up against the bigger and better NESCAC teams. The Camels are last in the league in scoring defense with 76.5 ppg allowed and rebounding margin (+1.3).
6. Williams (9-5, 0-2, Last week: 5)
The Ephs definitely got the toughest opening weekend schedule, traveling to Amherst on Friday and Trinity on Sunday. They lost a heartbreaker to the Bantams, but they competed well given their youth. There are a lot of games still to play. Rookie forward Kyle Scadlock ’19 has been efficient, ranking eighth in the league in field goal percentage, while the Dan Aronowitz ’17 is averaging 16.7 ppg. They are not getting the productivity they would like out of 6’10″ center Edward Flynn ’16, though, who has only been able to pull in 4.9 rbg, which is a glaring hole when one considers the front courts of the league’s best teams. Though their 0-2 conference record doesn’t show it at this point, Williams could be a sleeper pick come playoff time. They to Wesleyan and Trinity by two points or less, so they will be desperate for redemption come playoff time.
7. Bates (8-6, 1-1, Last week: 7)
Bates has played a very tough schedule, but it is fair to say that they are struggling this season. Despite the size of the Delpeche twins, the Bobcats are 10th in the NESCAC in scoring defense. This will prove to be a detriment as the NESCAC season unravels. Mike Boornazian ’16 is the ringleader for the Bobcats posting 15.5 ppg with 2.8 apg, while Shawn Strickland ’18 supplies 3.6 apg and shoots 42.4 percent from three-point land. With a 1-1 NESCAC record going into tonight’s game against Hamilton, I believe Bates has the upperhand, but the Continentals are not to be taken lightly. Bates should be in the playoffs this season, but they are fiddling with the fringe.
8. Bowdoin (8-4, 1-1, Last week: 6)
Bowdoin stands at 1-1 in the NESCAC with an embarrassing loss to Tufts. The Polar Bears have Friday and Saturday off and will travel to Williams on Sunday. Thanks to the way the NESCAC schedule rotates and a postponed game last Tuesday, Bowdoin is in the midst of a 12-day stretch in which they will play just one game (unless the game with Maine-Presque Isle can be rescheduled in that time). Does that rest give Bowdoin the advantage, or will rust hurt them against the Ephs? They will then take on Amherst, Trinity and Colby who they lost to on December 5. Bowdoin has a good all-around team, but they have generally been taken advantage of on the boards. Bowdoin will be outgunned when they have to face real centers and big athletic forwards. Bowdoin does shoot well though, and Lucas Hausman ’16 leads the league (by a lot) with 25.0 ppg, with Jack Simonds ’19 backing him up and averaging 14.8 ppg.
9. Colby (10-3, 0-2, Last week: 4)
Colby looked great coming into last weekend, but will need to earn their stripes in NESCAC action. They did beat Bowdoin and Bates in early December, but those were non-conference games, and Bates got redemption by beating Colby when it mattered. Colby will travel to Massachusetts to challenge a tough Ephs team tonight. The road doesn’t get much easier as they will then have to take on Trinity and Amherst on back-to-back nights, which could make for a chilling weekend in Waterville, Maine as they could potentially fall to 0-5 in NESCAC play. The Mules will be a fringe playoff team this year, and could easily not make the NESCAC tournament. A week ago we were talking about Colby as a potential top-four seed, and now a cold spell could drop them into a battle for a spot in the playoff field. Their weakness, defense, is well-documented, and needs to get fixed if Colby is going to meet their own expectations this year.
10. Middlebury (7-7, 1-1, Last week: 11)
Middlebury earned a great win at Wesleyan to open up their conference schedule, then lost by one point to Conn College the following day. A team with the worst free throw percentage in the league will certainly have trouble down the stretch, and close games like their loss to Conn College could be marked as W’s if they can just figure out their issues from the stripe. Despite their free throw percentage, the Panthers have a very good defense holding teams to 70.8 ppg. Center Matt Daley ’16 leads the team with 8.7 rbg, which has lead to the team’s second-best +8.4 rebounding margin. Matt St. Amour ’17 leads the team with 19.1 ppg, while Daley averages 12.1. These two will need to have impactful games to take down Tufts tonight. The big question is how the heck they are going to stop Palleschi and Pace.
11. Hamilton (7-6, 0-2, Last week: 10)
Hamilton has a very young, inexperienced squad this season with just two seniors. Unsatisfied with being the runt of the NESCAC, Hamilton fought hard in their opening NESCAC games, forcing Wesleyan into overtime to eventually fall by six points and losing to Conn College by just four points. They have a foreseeable win tonight against Bates. Hamilton is just barely outscoring its opponents 71.8 ppg to 71.2 ppg. That does not translate to a good performance against tougher NESCAC teams. Point guard Jack Dwyer ’18 will give Hamilton an opportunity to win averaging while 5.2 apg. Peter Hoffmann ’19 ranks 13th in scoring this season and has made an immediate impact. There is a bright future in Hamilton, even if things aren’t looking to promising in 2015-16.
