6:00 PM, Saturday September 22nd @ Medford, MA
Overview
These two teams had (in my opinion) the most impressive Week 1 victories. Tufts defeated Hamilton by a score of 29-2 and Wesleyan routed Middlebury 52-14. These decisive victories show us that each team has turned the page from 2017 and are vying for a title in the 2018 season. This matchup certainly has championship ramifications, as the league is wide open, waiting for someone to prove why they belong at the top. The annual Tufts vs. Wesleyan night game promises to be the most exciting game so far in this young season especially after the opening week had essentially no entertainment whatsoever. Fortunately for the fans, the Cardinals and Jumbos have had some classics in recent history with Wesleyan winning last season in overtime and Tufts winning by just 3 points the prior year.
Key for Tufts: Passing game
The Jumbos did a fantastic job establishing the run game in their opener at Hamilton. Lead RB Mike Pedrini ’21 rushed 9 times for 68 yards, while QB Ryan McDonald ’19 rushed 15 times for 98 yards and 4 TDs. These are impressive numbers, but it’ll take a more multi-faceted offense to beat a defense as strong as Wesleyan. The Tufts receiving corps will be facing a much tougher challenge when they go up against elite defensive players like Ben Thaw ’20 and Brandon Morris ’19. Frank Roche ’19 and OJ Armstrong ’21 were the only wideouts that caught multiple passes against the Continentals, and this will have to change. QB Ryan McDonald ’19 has to use his arm more because the Cardinals are much more able to keep him in the pocket and prevent him from breaking off big runs like he did last week. If the Tufts receivers can create separation and open up the passing game, it’ll allow for them to rely more on the run game that they loved so much in Week 1. We know that Ryan McDonald ’19 is capable of throwing the ball, but he’ll have to prove that he can do it against one of the league’s top secondaries.
Key for Wesleyan: Minimizing turnovers
Although they won last year’s matchup, Wesleyan wasn’t particularly careful with the ball. Piccirillo threw an interception and fumbled three times, losing two. There’s no question that the Cardinals are the more disciplined team in this one, so it’ll come down to ball security if they’re going to prevent Tufts from creeping into the game. The Cardinals turned the ball over 13 times last year, but 7 of those turnovers were in their 3 losses. Piccirillo is an excellent facilitator, but has a bad habit of turning the ball over when he’s pressure. In their first game versus Middlebury, Wesleyan didn’t turn the ball over once, controlling the time of possession. The offensive line did a terrific job and didn’t allow a single sack, giving Piccirillo all the time he needed to find open receivers. If they can hold on to the ball, their talent and game planning will be too much for the Jumbos.
Tufts X-Factor: WR Frank Roche ’19
If Tufts is going to establish the passing game, they’ll need their top pass catchers to break free. No receiver had a particularly big game in Week 1 as a result of QB Ryan McDonald ’19 doing it all himself, but this week that won’t be the case. Roche finished 2ndon the team in receptions last season despite playing only 7 games, and he was the top receiver against Hamilton with 4 catches for 42 yards. Other guys will need to step up too, but every quarterback needs a top target and Roche is going to be that target against a very tough Wesleyan defense.
Wesleyan X-Factor: LB Brandon Morris ’19
The 2017 team leader in tackles started off his senior campaign with a fine effort against Middlebury. He recorded 5 tackles and led the team with 3 pass break ups. Morris is as athletic as they come at the linebacker position, and he’ll have a lot on his plate against Tufts. He does an excellent job in coverage as he possesses the quickness to stay with some faster receivers and his outstanding instincts always keep him in position to find the ball. Against a mobile quarterback like McDonald, Morris will have to make sure he stays in the pocket since they know he loves to run. If he can help keep McDonald in check, Wesleyan should have no problem winning this one.
Everything Else
Wesleyan is definitely the favorite here, with a slight edge in most categories. I think the Cardinals have a deeper offense with more threats, and a much more imposing defense. Piccirillo has my vote for best quarterback in the league, and Dan DiCenzo is one of the most impressive coaches. With all of this said, Tufts still absolutely has a chance in this one. Their defense was suffocating against Hamilton last week and already looks better than it did last season. Ryan McDonald is a total enigma and it’s very difficult to know what to expect from him. We could see 350 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. We could see 150 passing yards and 2 interceptions. We could see 110 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. We could see 2 fumbles and no running game. What we do know is that he will do all that Wesleyan’s defense will allow him to do, and that will make or break this game. To me, Wesleyan is the known and Tufts is the unknown. The Cardinals have my pick, but I’m very excited to see what we’re going to get out of the Jumbos tomorrow.
Prediction: Wesleyan 31, Tufts 23