As we move to the stretch run, the biggest games of the season are still in front of us. When Wesleyan and Amherst meet on Saturday, more than just the Little Three will be on the line. The winner will have the best victory of the year and a good shot at going undefeated.
All eyes will be on Middletown, but a lot of other games will offer intrigue as well. Bates visits Middlebury in a game that should stay close if the Bates defense can play like they did for the better part of last week. Trinity makes the trip north to Maine for a game that could be tricky against a Bowdoin team that has now won two in a row. The other two games should be close as well.
Three to Watch
Running Back Devon Carrillo ’17 (Wesleyan): The salve to Wesleyan’s running problems might be the Middletown, Connecticut native. Last week Coach Mike Whalen used Carrillo as a wildcat quarterback in certain situations. The formation gave Bates fits with the highlight being a 66 yard run in the second quarter that saw Carrillo weave his way through the Bobcat defense. He accounted for 92 of Wesleyan’s 143 rushing yards (64.3%). After a freshman year that saw him return kicks and be the second leading tackler on defense, his role has shifted to the offensive side of the ball. On the Wesleyan website he is listed as a linebacker, and he played both ways in the first two weeks of the season, but he did not record a tackle last week. If Wesleyan can’t get traction running the ball with Jesse Warren ’15 under center then they will turn to Carrillo for a spark.
Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury)- The leading tackler in the NESCAC over the last two years, Patricia has seen his production dip slightly as others on the Panther defense have emerged. Yet the junior could have a big game production wise on Saturday against Bates. Linebackers like Chris Tamasi ’15 and James O’Grady ’16 have enjoyed some of their best games this year against Bates because the run heavy offense gives linebackers a wealth of opportunities to make plays. The loss of Ryan Curit ’14 and Shawn Doherty ’14 has hampered Bates so far, but Middlebury will still have to bring their best game on Saturday. The skill level all around the Panther defense is much higher than it was two years ago. The reputation of a finesse team that they gained in past years does not ring true now. Patricia has been a big part of that change.
Defensive Tackle Tom Wells ’15 (Bowdoin)- A 2013 second team All-NESCAC performer, Wells is one of three seniors on the defensive line for Bowdoin that will try to stop the vaunted Trinity running game. The last time the two teams met in Brunswick the Polar Bears held Trinity to 3.4 yards per rush, and Trinity had only a 13-10 lead at halftime. Wells has three tackles for loss on the year, and along with lineman Jake Prince ’15 and Brian Golger ’15, will take on the vaunted Trinity offensive line. Right now the Polar Bears rank last in the NESCAC in defensive yards per rush at 3.9. Against Trinity the front seven will have to step up for Bowdoin to spring an upset.
The Picks
Game of the Week: Amherst (4-0) at Wesleyan (4-0)
Last year this was the game when Wesleyan broke through and showed that they had truly joined the top echelon of the league. A late Amherst rally fell short of succeeding, and two weeks later the Cardinals were celebrating their first Little Three title in 41 years.
Yet Amherst really outplayed Wesleyan in that game but lost for two big reasons – turnovers and field position. Amherst had four turnovers (three interceptions and one fumble) to Wesleyan’s zero. Then Wesleyan converted two short fields after Amherst punts into touchdowns which proved to be the difference.
Therefore, punter/receiver Jackson McGonagle ’16 and quarterback Max Lippe ’15 are the keys for the Jeffs. McGonagle has a great leg and can boom punts when he hits it right, but he is inconsistent and too often ends up hitting the ball poorly. Lippe reclaimed his position after not playing at all in the first three weeks and changed the look of the Amherst offense. He made good reads and solidified the passing game.
We fully expect Lippe to get the nod to start, but if he struggles Alex Berluti ’17 or Reece Foy ’18 should be ready to go. Lippe went 20-35 for 195 yards and had two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Cardinals in 2013. He spread the ball around last week which is a must against a Wesleyan secondary capable of turning any mistake into six points the other way.
Amherst has likely spent a lot of time in practice getting ready for Carrillo and the wildcat, but stopping it will still not be easy. Whalen likely did not want to run the wildcat so much last week, but the lack of any other running game forced his hand. Losing LaDarius Drew ’15 has cost Wesleyan more than expected with Kyle Gibson ’15 unable to find lanes of space.
Jesse Warren ’15 has proven in the first half that he is not merely a beneficiary of a strong running game and has been the best quarterback in the NESCAC. He set a new personal record in attempts (38) and completions (24 – the first time he has had more than 20) against Bates, making big throws one third down and long.
These are the two best statistical defense in the NESCAC at this point, and both offenses carry heavy question marks. Though it is Wesleyan’s homecoming, students are on fall break so the crowd might be large but not necessarily loud. Amherst hopes that Lippe can continue his play from last week, and we think he makes enough plays to carry them to victory in a low scoring game.
Prediction: Amherst 17 over Wesleyan 13
Bates (1-3) at Middlebury (2-2): The overtime victory for Middlebury last week was thrilling and represented another step in Matt Milano’s ’16 development. Now the Panthers have to turn around and protect their home turf against Bates. No word on whether Matt Cannone ’15 will play, but Patrick Dugan ’16 is capable of making plays as well. Our mid-season Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Newson ’15 will need to play well to keep Milano and company in check. These two teams have played three common opponents and played them similarly.
Prediction: Middlebury 21 over Bates 13
Williams (1-3) at Tufts (2-2): Even though they lost at Trinity 35-14, the Jumbos won respect for how they played the Bantams in Hartford. It took Trinity a while to pull away. Williams looked much better back at home, but the Ephs need to see results soon. Tackling in space is a must for the Williams secondary as Tufts will consistently run screens to their wide receivers. QB Austin Lommen ’16 has to take some of the load off running back Alex Scyocurka ’14. Williams averages the fewest tackles for loss per game on defense and Tufts is allowing the most first downs per game in the NESCAC so the potential is there for some fireworks.
Prediction: Williams 34 over Tufts 28
Trinity (4-0) at Bowdoin (2-2): The Bantams take their roadshow north to face off against a Bowdoin team that has turned around their season after a slow start. The announcement by Head Coach Dave Caputi that he would be stepping down at the end of this year could lead to a fired up Bowdoin squad. Trinity has started slow in a lot of their games, but they wear teams down over the course of their season. The weather will be a factor especially on the grass field. Trinity will load the box to stop Tyler Grant ’17 and see if Mac Caputi ’15 can make throws to his receivers in one on one coverage.
Editors Note: the game prediction is by Joe MacDonald.
Prediction: Trinity 35 over Bowdoin 17
Hamilton (0-4) at Colby (0-4): As meetings between two 0-4 teams go, this is a much better game than you might expect. Colby has finished their murderers row of an opening schedule, but the physical toll was heavy with the Colby staff having to resort to playing some players both ways. The Colby offense should be better after having to face four great defense. Hamilton look like they have a very good player in running back LaShawn Ware ’17 who has now lead the Continentals in rushing two of the last three weeks.
Prediction: Colby 24 over Hamilton 20
Last Week: 4-1
Season Record: 17-3