With only a few weeks left in the spring semester, NESCAC weekends are even more critical to a team’s playoff aspiration. The leading teams coming out of the west are the usual candidates: Amherst and Wesleyan. The teams coming out of the east right now, in a somewhat shocking manner, are Bates and Tufts. The three seeds in each division are poised to become two seeds if they play strong these next few weekends. In this weekend edition, I will preview the most important matchups this weekend, and how the outcome will affect the entire league.
The East: Tufts University @ Bates College:
This series will be exciting for a number of reasons. Firstly, both teams were underachieving midway through the season. Once sitting at 3-3, the Bos’ have become hot quickly. As last season’s champs and perennial contender, it wasn’t hard to predict that Tufts’ wasn’t going to receive the stellar starting pitching that it had the year before. I could never predict 3-3, though. You have to understand that Coach John Casey’s Tufts will never be in the bottom of the league. Whether it be the way they recruit, practice, or the tradition that Tufts Baseball has under Casey, the ‘Bos will simply never be bad.
Bates, on the other hand, under the regime of Jon Martin, has exceeded expectations. Even though some attribute Bates’ playoff appearance last year to luck, the Bobcats still played in the tournament while every non-tournament team was golfing. Bates simply wasn’t good earlier in the year—especially at the plate. Personally, I ripped on and even written off Bates earlier in the year. This weekend is crucial for Bates to establish themselves as a perennial contender. If Bates takes at least two on its home field against Tufts, I will consider them a legitimate team. Hitting is still a problem, though. Starting outfielder Will Sylvia is only hitting .227. Bates’ pitching right now is one of the best in the league, so if the hitters throughout the lineup can figure it out at the plate, Bates could be considered a favorite in the tournament. The .247 average really isn’t helping the Bobcats.
Tufts’ bats exploded against Colby last weekend—putting up run totals in the teens and twenties. Even though Colby is no Amherst, the Mules are still a NESCAC team. The demolition that Tufts put on Colby is truly remarkable. Tufts is either first or second in all major hitting statistical categories; they can definitely mash. Like it always is, Tommy O’Hara, Nick Falkson and Malcolm Nachmanoff are leading the charge with 17 combined dingers and an average just below .400 for O’Hara and above .400 for Nachmanoff. Pitchers are scared to face these guys, and I don’t blame them. With a swing of the bat, they can turn the game around.
This is a series that I doubt anyone predicted would be one of the most critical of the season; dominant hitting against dominant pitching is fun to watch. Normally pitching wins at the highest level, but that could be underestimating how well Tufts swings the bat. Regardless, it’s going to be a fun series.
Prediction: Tufts wins the series two games to one.
The West: Wesleyan University vs. Williams College:
Here’s a hot take: Williams isn’t bad. They’re good. How good? We’ll see this weekend against Wesleyan. Wesleyan is coming into this series with a 2-4 conference record these past two weekends. It hurts me to say this: I definitely overvalued Wesleyan after its dominant sweep of Middlebury. I completely overlooked the lack of real relief pitching. Yes, Sosa, McCaffery, and sometimes Olmstead will put together a quality start, but who do you really trust with the ball in their hand in the eighth or ninth on the road with men on base? I definitely trust Pat Clare, but Dan Lombardo has been inconsistent in giving up extra base hits. Jake Alonzo and Ryan Earle are quality right handers as well, but if you want to get a lefty-lefty matchup against a big power guy, who do you go to? Doug Hartshorn can provide a good matchup with offspeed and other secondary pitches, although he spiked a ball during game one against Amherst last weekend that got past C Chase Pratt, which led to a critical Amherst run. Even though I love what smaller southpaws like Hartshorn bring to the table with late movements on fastballs, loopier breaking balls, and changeups that are incredibly hard to sit back on and read, pitchers have to throw strikes at the end of the day. Coming back from that long tangent, I’ve realized that the reason I overvalued Wesleyan is because of the bats against Midd. When the bats were hot– that means Cappitelli through Walek were stringing together quality at bats, the relievers faced no pressure. When you know what hit the fan at Hamilton, I first saw Wesleyan’s relatively weak bullpen. It’s inevitable that a lineup will ebb and flow. For Wes to be successful with its thin pen, everyone has to hit.
Williams supringly isn’t as bad as I thought they were going to be. Sitting at 4-5 in conference play, if they take two against Wes, the Ephs have a serious shot at making the playoffs. 4-5 really isn’t a bad record. People forget that last year’s breakout star Johnny Lamont is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Similar to Bates, it seems that Williams’ achilles heel is its lack of production at the plate. Kellen Hatheway, the guy who’s getting the most AB’s, is barely hitting is weight (full disclosure, I don’t know his true weight. He’s hitting .209, so I assume he’s between 180-220). The pitching doesn’t seem stellar either. No pitcher is below a 3.50 ERA with a minimum of one innings pitch. What picture do these numbers paint? Williams is average at best numbers wise? How’d they win four elusive league games so far? They haven’t been swept yet. The Ephs have won some close games against quality teams. They took one against Amherst, one against Midd, and one against Bates (non-league), and two against Hamilton. They’ve beaten some quality teams, which makes me think that they have clutch at bats and get outs when they need them.
With all this said, I’m not saying Wes is a bad ball club or that Williams will win it all. Wesleyan at the end of the day will win ball games. Remember Dennett’s clutch hit against Tufts’ in 2014 to score Cimino and Yin to jump ahead against Tufts. That was when Wes won its first ever NESCAC title. Guys like Jeye, Andrews, Coppola, Ferrara, and Howard remember that bus ride back to Middletown with the feeling that they accomplished something no Wes baseball player ever did. The pride of stepping off the bus outside of Freeman Athletic Center knowing that you wore that W on your chest, represented the school, and won is a feeling that is indescribable. These guys know how to win under pressure, but let’s see if the rest of the squad can do it. Williams be up to the challenge if Wes can’t come through in the clutch. This is a little three game, so I know it’ll be a great series.
Prediction: Wesleyan wins two games to one.