Week 5 Game of the Week — Tufts @ Trinity, 1:30 PM Saturday, October 13th
Overview:
Trinity stays at home this week to try to keep their championship aspirations alive. After losing to Williams in week three, they are one loss away from irrelevance. They stayed alive last weekend, easily blowing through Hamilton (44-7), who beat Wesleyan in the week prior. While the Jumbos also blew through Hamilton in week one (29-2), their game against Wesleyan has been their toughest contest of 2018. Tufts was also played tightly by Bates for three quarters in week three before pulling away for a 47-14 victory. Trinity has looked human and beatable in recent contests, but they have the talent to give undefeated Tufts a run for its money and will not go down easily in their own house with their season on the line.
Key for Trinity: Rush Defense
While the Bantam offense faltered against the Ephs in their loss, their defense was aces all day. They held each of the Eph rushers to under 3.4 yards per carry, which is impressive considering QB Bobby Maimaron is averaging almost a yard per carry more in his other three games and has rushed for six TDs on the season too. If Trinity can keep QB Ryan McDonald and RBs Mike Pedrini and Dom Borelli out of the end zone on the ground it could be a slow day for the Jumbo offense.
Key for Tufts: Secondary and Linebackers
Against Wesleyan, the Tufts defense had seven tackles for losses and 5.5 of those came from either the secondary or the linebackers. In order to stop Trinity’s new signal caller Jordan Vazzano, they will need to step up their pass defense as they have been dominant against the run game. They allow 58.3 yards per game on the ground compared to 173 yards per game in the air. Their defensive playmakers DB Tim Preston, LB Tylor Scales, and DB Alex LaPiana have all four of their INTs on the season while LB Greg Holt leads the team in tackles and tackles for a loss. Those four could make game changing plays against Vazzano who has been prone to throwing INTs in recent weeks.
Trinity X-Factor:
RB Max Chipouras
Chipouras faces the second toughest rush defense this weekend (Amherst still holds the rush defense crown), and he has his work cut out for him. He has faltered compared to his usual talent in recent weeks and hasn’t done much since he blew up against a mediocre defense against Colby in week one. In the last three weeks, averaging 3.7, 3.6, and 4.2 yards per carry which is paltry for even average NESCAC standards. While he still rushed for two touchdowns last weekend, the strongest rush defense he faced was Williams who still allows an average of over 138 yards per game on the ground. He has yet to face Amherst or Tufts yet and that makes me beg the question, has he lost a step?
Tufts X-Factor:
RB Mike Pedrini
While we all know that Ryan McDonald is going to make an impact on Saturday but the Jumbos will need to diversify their offensive attack to penetrate the Bantam defense. RB Dom Borelli has more carries but Pedrini has three touchdowns compared to Borelli’s one. The pair are both averaging just over 4.5 yards per carry each and have more touchdowns than any other pair of Jumbos besides McDonald. He saw almost no action in their only real battle this year against Wesleyan, rushing three times for just six yards. Ryan McDonald has the ball in his hands the majority of the game, although if the same Bantam defense shows up that narrowly lost to Williams, the Jumbos will have difficulty if their QB is the only one with the ball.
Everything Else:
This matchup looks to be remarkably even. Both teams have top defenses, are in the hunt for a championship, and have strong leaders at QB. There’s no doubt that both Ryan McDonald and Jordan Vazzano are elite NESCAC QBs with 6:2 and 11:3 TD to INT ratios, respectively, and should be duking it out in a tightly contested battle this weekend. Trinity clearly has the advantage between RBs, but McDonald is the main weapon for the Tufts rushing game anyways, so they appear to be near equals there as well. Trinity’s receivers are performing remarkably the last few weeks as Jonathan Girard has taken off with 24.2 yards per catch and 6 TDs, making his mark like Mike Breuler did last season for Wesleyan. No Tufts receivers have more than two TDs and this could lead McDonald to lean more heavily on the run game in light of Trinity’s stellar secondary led by Matt Patry and Robert Levine. Vazzano might struggle against some of the Tufts defenders but he will still undoubtedly find some of his wideout weapons while McDonald may have to try to take all of the offensive explosion into his own hands. Here’s the point—both teams have stellar defenses, but Trinity has more weapons to overcome their opponent than the Jumbos.
Predicted Score: Trinity 24 Tufts 17