What We Expected: Week 4 Power Rankings

Week 4 Power Rankings

This was about as boring a weekend of football as you can possibly get in the NESCAC. Colby kept things somewhat close with Wesleyan, but it only became a one-possession game again with 14 seconds remaining. Every game went more or less exactly the way we thought, and the one game that seemed like it could be interesting ended up with Amherst shutting out Middlebury. I guess it’s good that we’re getting the boring weeks out of the way so that we can get some good end-of-season drama. Fingers crossed.

(1) 1. Williams (4-0) 

The Ephs took care of Bates this weekend with relative ease, 31-7. Williams actually threw the ball just 19 times the entire game, as QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 was 11-19 for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns. This is a modest stat line by his standards, but his arm wasn’t really needed since RB TJ Dozier ’21 pummeled the Bates run defense with 12 carries for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Not much has changed for Williams in the past week, but one notable stat is that they haven’t allowed a single point in the third quarter of any game all season. This really is a testament to the halftime coaching adjustments as well as simply a very stout defense. They host Middlebury in Week 5 looking to stay atop the rankings.

(2) 2. Tufts (4-0)

QB Ryan McDonald ’19 is showing off his versatility as a runner much more this season

At the start of the year, I don’t think anyone could have envisioned Tufts’ defense looking as prolific as they have thus far. Bowdoin may not be the most talented team in the league, but a shutout in football is very hard to come by. As a unit they lead the league in sacks (14), allow the second fewest rushing yards per game (58.3), and allow the fourth fewest passing yards per game (173). Senior defensive lineman Jared Ashler ’19 is 3rd in the NESCAC with 3 sacks on the year and with the help of guys like DL Nmesoma Nwafor ’19 and LB Stephen Timmins ’20, this Jumbo defense* is consistently getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The defense will have to bring their A-game this weekend when they travel to Hartford to take on the league’s top offense.

*Being called the “Jumbo defense” makes it sound like they have a wall of 6’5”, 280 lbs studs not letting anyone by. I wouldn’t want to have to play against them.

(3) 3. Amherst (4-0)

Amherst pulled off a very convincing win over Middlebury on Saturday. After losing to the Panthers by a combined 5 points in the last two years, the Mammoth defense* was suffocating, not allowing a point over the full 60 minutes. The offense looked good, although star RB Jack Hickey ’19 did not play the entire game, meaning he must be injured. If he is out for an extended period of time then this would be a huge blow for the Amherst offense that is built around the run game. The good thing is that they’re getting exactly the type of quarterback play that they need. If you were to Google search “game manager quarterback” you’d find a picture of Ollie Eberth ’20 right under a picture of AJ McCarron. Eberth doesn’t throw for a ton of yards, but he’s yet to throw an interception this season and he leads all starters with a 64% completion percentage. The formula is there for the Mammoths, and they’ll have one last dress rehearsal this weekend against Colby before they get to the challenging portion of their schedule.

*Ok so “Mammoth defense” is probably the only thing that sounds more intimidating than “Jumbo defense.” Well done NESCAC and your weird mascots.

(4) 4. Trinity (3-1)

The Bantams got back to what they do best with a 44-7 spanking of Hamilton. QB Jordan Vazzano ’21 continues to have an unsettlingly low completion percentage, but his job isn’t so hard since it basically just requires him to throw the ball in the general vicinity of either Jonathan Girard ’21 or Koby Schofer ’20, who are first and third respectively in receiving yards per game and receiving touchdowns. The defense is having another terrific season, as they’ve allowed the fewest passing yards and total yards, as well as third fewest rushing yards in the conference. After the loss to Williams in Week 3, Trinity needs to win out and hope for a couple of Eph losses if they want a chance at the title. The road continues with a marquee matchup against Tufts this weekend.

(5) 5. Wesleyan (2-2)

WR Hallvard Lundevall ’20 has emerged as Wesleyan’s top receiving threat

I can’t quite figure out the Cardinals this year. They looked like the team to beat this year after they blasted Middlebury in Week 1, but they’ve seemed very shaky since then. Although they led the entire way, a 28-20 victory over Colby is not a particularly definitive result. Wesleyan’s run defense has been excellent, but they haven’t done a great job defending the pass and this trend continued against the Mules when they allowed 277 pass yards and 3 touchdowns to freshman QB Matt Hersch ’22. QB Mark Piccirillo ’19 is having a good year, but the Cardinals haven’t really showed many threats on offense. They’ll look to figure things out this weekend when they head up north to take on Bates.

(6) 6. Middlebury (2-2)

The struggles continued for the Panthers who were embarrassed at home by a very strong Amherst squad. Since taking over the starting role, QB Will Jernigan ’21 has had a tough time getting anything going with his receiving corps. He was only able to muster 133 passing yards on 15 completions against the Mammoths, and although this was technically his season high, it isn’t much considering how much talent they have at receiver. Allowing 301 yards and 21 total points isn’t a bad defensive effort at all, but the offense needs to produce a lot more than it has. They’ve got another tough matchup this Saturday as they’ll head down to take on the Ephs in Williamstown.

(7) 7. Hamilton (1-3)

Not to say that I expected Hamilton to beat Trinity, but after sneaking away with win at Wesleyan I at least expected a better performance. The Continentals looked just like they did in the first three weeks of the season, only managing to accumulate 213 yards of total offense while allowing 503. I haven’t played a down of football in my life but I know that isn’t going to win you a lot of games. The defense hasn’t been as good as it should be given the talent that Hamilton has on that side of the ball, and QB Kenny Gray ’20 simply hasn’t been very impressive this season. I thought this was going to be his big breakout year, and that just hasn’t happened. If the Continentals weren’t excited before then now is the time because they host their weakest opponent of the season so far in Bowdoin on Saturday.

(10) 8. Colby (0-4)

The 3 Maine schools could really be put in any order, but for the sake of excitement I’m judging them on a week-to-week basis. Week 4 was a big week for Colby. A loss is a loss, but they have a lot of reasons to be excited moving forward. First of all, rookie QB Matt Hersch ’22 completed a career-high 23 passes for a career high 277 yards and a career high 3 touchdowns. Not a bad day, huh? Second of all, the defense allowed a season-low 28 points. Wesleyan is a good team, so it was impressive that this defense could compete and keep the Mules in this game. D-lineman Nick Wilcox ’22 has looked very impressive as he had 7 tackles and 1 sack on Piccirillo, and is second on the team overall in tackles. Colby will take on Amherst this weekend in another very challenging matchup, then finally they’ll play some more winnable games against Hamilton and Bates in the following weeks.

(9) 9. Bates (0-4)

RB Liam Spillane ’21 tallied a career high in carries and yards against Williams

I’d say the Bates vs. Williams game went exactly how we would have expected. Williams was clearly the better team but the Bobcats hung around, only trailing 17-7 at the end of the third quarter before ultimately losing 31-7. It was the same story we’ve seen for Bates; they stay in games for a little while until the defense eventually gets too tired from being on the field all game so they fade at the end. DB’s Jon Lindgren ’20 and Anthony Costa ’21 continue to be the team’s standout defensive players and the real problem is that they don’t have any standout offensive players. Liam Spillane ’21 took over as lead running back against Williams, rushing 24 times for 72 yards. This is a respectable stat line, but the problem is the passing offense more than the running game. Their next game is against Wesleyan who has struggled against the pass, so we’ll see if Bates can come up with a better effort on Saturday.

(8) 10. Bowdoin (0-4)

We were seeing improvements from the Polar Bears, especially on offense, but they ran into a very hot Tufts team and were run right over. QB Austin McCrum ’20 threw the ball 47 times but completed just 21 of those passes for a mere 162 yards. I don’t think this game is indicative of how Bowdoin will be moving forward, but it definitely is a step in the wrong direction. They were without starting running back Nate Richam ’20 so the running game took a hit, but getting shut out is a bad look no matter what. The defense wasn’t great, but it hasn’t been great all season and Tufts is a strong team. This was one to forget for Bowdoin. On to Hamilton.

Jumbos Need to Prove They Can Hang; Tufts University Season Preview

The Tufts O Line should be solid, but their D Line leaves a lot to question.

2017 Record: 5-4

Projected Record: 4-5

Projected offensive starters (*9 returning)

QB – Ryan McDonald ’19*

RB – Mike Pedrini ‘21*

WR – Jack Dolan ‘19*

WR – Frank Roche ‘19*

WR – Dan de Leon ‘19*

WR — Winton Blount ‘20*

LT – Nick Roy ‘19*

LG – Josh Thibeault ‘19*

RG – Dan MacDonald ‘19*

RT – Logan Herodes ‘20*

C – Jack Rhodes ‘19

Projected defensive starters (*4 returning)

CB – Miles Shipp ‘20

CB – Mark Mastrog ‘20

S – Tim Preston ‘19*

S — Alex LaPiana ‘19*

LB – Greg Holt ‘20*

LB – Tylor Scales ‘20

LB —Stephen Timmins ‘20

DL – Nmesoma Nwafor ‘19*

DL – Jared Ahsler ‘19

DL – Kevin Quisumbing ‘20

DL — Tom Baker ‘20

Projected specialists (*2 returning)

PK – Matthew Alswanger ’21*

P — Alex LaPiana ’19*

KR/PR – Jack Dolan ‘19

Offensive MVP:

Ryan McDonald ’19

QB Ryan McDonald ‘19

McDonald became one of the most efficient signal-callers in the league but also tallied 10 interceptions in 2017. That number is definitely not what you’d like from a quarterback seeking to win a championship, but McDonald is constantly improving and he’ll lead an offense that returns nearly all of its starters. McDonald finished the season with eleven passing touchdowns and was definitely a point of emphasis in training camp thus far. Along with his elite running ability, we see him as breaking out with all of his receivers returning and building on already developed relationships. The Jumbos finished seventh out of ten last season in passing touchdowns a season ago, but we think that they will rank up there in the top five in this statistic, competing with Trinity and Amherst, but behind Midd and Wesleyan.

Defensive MVP:

Greg Holt ’20

LB Greg Holt ‘20

Although Tufts only returns four defensive starters, Holt should lead his side of the ball and at least make them competitive against. Holt is an All-NESCAC honoree and racked up an impressive 98 tackles his freshman season and 84 last year. He led the team in that stat and also led the team with 5 pass break ups, and should be ready to go this Saturday against Hamilton.

Biggest Game: October 20th vs. Williams

This might not stick out as the game to watch, but currently we have Williams, Midd, and Trinity all duking it out for the 4th-6th spots in the league standings this year. This game is following their matchup against Trinity that’ll be tough to handle, and if they can knock off the Ephs, they could go on a run the finish their season and finish in the top four.

Best Tweet:

https://twitter.com/CoachCivs/status/1027006817581318144

This tweet was a reply to Bryant University’s twitter that posted a video of a rock, paper, scissors competition that received national media attention. Well, the D3 version was better, and if the Jumbos can compete this well in a RPS competition, they should do pretty well on the gridiron.

Coach Civetti’s talent will be on display this year with few returning defensive starters.

Everything Else: (Andrew Martin’s insight from his Wesleyan centric point of view)

Medford, Massachusetts, has been the site of a budding NESCAC football program for the past few seasons. The Tufts Jumbos have transitioned themselves from the worst team in the league to one that is competitive. The 2016 season marked a historic turnaround for the program. The Jumbos finished second in the league with an impressive 7-1. The constant improvement from a 0-8 2013 campaign is a testament to head coach Jay Civetti and his coaching staff. The head coach since 2011, Civetti has coached NESCAC stars such as NESCAC player of the year Chance Brady and star quarterback Alex Snyder. The 2017 on paper, however, illustrated a fall from the remarkable growth the Jumbos showed over the previous seasons. A 5-4 2017 season didn’t live up to the high expectations after such a successful 2016 year. All four losses were within ten points.

McDonald was good enough to be the NESCAC’s best QB for a week last season, but to get his team a ring, he will likely have to do that every week.

The youthful Jumbos proved they can compete in close ball games, but couldn’t make the key plays to beat the league’s elite: Middlebury, Trinity, Wesleyan, and Amherst. The Wesleyan game in particular represented a turning point in the Jumbos’ season last year. Coming off a victory over Hamilton in their season opener, the 1-0 Jumbos traveled to Middletown to face the Wesleyan Cardinals under the lights at Andrus Field. The hype around a Wesleyan night game was palpable around campus in Middletown. The heart of Wesleyan’s campus was filled that night with proud students and alums ready to see the fast paced Cardinals face the second best team from a year ago. Tufts dominated the first half, building a seemingly insurmountable lead. As the Jumbos came storming onto the field for the second half, I heard the coaches emphasize to the team to treat the second half like a 0-0 ball game. Like that 28-3 lead the Falcons had over the Patriots in Super Bowl LI, a few Wesleyan touchdowns gave life to the Cardinals and the crowds. Mark Piccirillo and Mike Breuler slowly and steadily cut down the Jumbos’ lead. The Cardinals ending up winning the football game in one of the best comebacks I’ve witnessed in sports. Tufts could’ve easily been 2-0, then win the next two weeks against inferior Bates and Bowdoin. Week five represented their Super Bowl if they were 4-0 facing off against eventual league champion Trinity. Hindsight is 20/20, so this is all speculation. Like Bill Belichick said, ‘We’re onto Cincinnati.’ Coach Civetti probably echoes the same sentiment.

With an elite signal caller who sparks a solid ground game, plenty of returning offensive weapons, the Jumbos should be able to make all of their games close. With that said, on paper they aren’t as sharp as those top teams in the NESCAC since their defense returns so few starters. However, as everybody knows, the lines that Vegas makes for week 1 of the NFL season are always narrow, and we would make them narrow for the Jumbos against those top teams right now, too, as that defense could always show up to be elite. Let’s see what they can bring, Tufts should be a dynamic team to watch—they could go 3-6 or 6-3, although we have them at 4-5 right now.