We have waited a long long time for this. The NESCAC football season kicks off officially at 1 PM tomorrow. To get you ready, we take inspiration from former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfield who famously talked about the differences between known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. We will switch around the format a little in order to also include things we think to be known. If that didn’t make any sense to you… don’t worry about it.
Things We Know We Know
- LaDarius Drew ’15 and Kyle Gibson ’15 will get a lot of carries- Coach Mike Whalen has successfully built Wesleyan into a powerhouse behind a strong running attack. QB Jesse Warren ’15 will not be asked to win the game against Middlebury. Drew and Gibson will have success against a front seven that was used to playing with the lead for most of last season.
- Williams has some nice new digs- If you haven’t seen them yet, Williams gives you a sneak peek here. The opening also coincides with Williams finishing a new library. Whether students actually went to school there the last two years or the campus was merely a construction site is still a matter of debate amongst scholars
- A streak will end- Either Hamilton or Tufts will get the monkey off their back in week 1. More pressure is on Tufts as the Jumbos carry a 31 game losing streak into the weekend.
Things We Think We Know
- Amherst can slow down the triple option- For football tacticians, the Amherst-Bates game features a veteran interior line for Bates going up against a great front seven in Amherst. The Jeffs have the strength in Robert Perdoni ’16 and speed in guys like Tyler Mordas ’16 to make Bates struggle.
- Austin Lommen ’16 will give the Williams offense a new look- A team that mostly relied on running the ball with Alex Scyorcurka ’14 and Marco Hernandez ’14 gets a shot of life with Lommen distributing the ball. Suddenly big play opportunities could abound for the Ephs given their size at receiver and tight end.
Things We Know We Don’t Know
- The total impact of Mac Foote ’14- By this I don’t just mean the effect Foote’s arm had on the offense but also the D. Teams had to adjust their game against the Panthers because of him. They would often be conservative early in the game to try to give their defense a rest before being forced to throw the ball a lot in late game situations. Think of how the Colts defense suddenly looked helpless once Peyton Manning got hurt.
- Mental Preparation of teams- Every coach says they like how their team has been playing in preseason. Yet we don’t know how ready every team is for their first game until they get out onto the field. A slow start in the first game of the season can lead to week 1 upsets.
The Picks
Colby at Trinity: Trinity 27-Colby 16
Play this game in three weeks in Waterville, and the Mules could pull the upset, but Trinity takes every home game seriously because of the streak. Expect Gabe Harrington to move the ball up and down the field, but the Trinity defense will tighten up in the red zone. A late Trinity rushing touchdown against a tired Colby team should seal it.
Wesleyan at Middlebury: Wesleyan 34-Middlebury 21
There is simply too much talent back on the Wesleyan sideline for the Panthers to compete for four whole quarters. We were robbed of this game last season, but this edition will lack drama. Expect the different in philosophies between the two teams to be clear as Wesleyan controls the line of scrimmage while Middlebury is forced to air it out. The entire Wesleyan secondary is licking their chops at the opportunity of playing a first time starting QB.
Bowdoin at Williams: Williams 23-Bowdoin 13
Williams will come out fired up to get a victory in their first game at the new field. Both defenses might take a little time to settle down. The key for Bowdoin is finding a way to slow down the defensive line of Williams. QB Mac Caputi ’15 will try to get the ball out early to avoid the rush. In the end Williams will find a way to attack a Bowdoin secondary that does not have the height to stop Darrias Sime’16 all game.
Bates at Amherst: Amherst 17- Bates 10
Amherst will leave this game with more questions on offense than they had going in. The game is going to be a slog for most of the time. Max Lippe ’15 is already at risk of losing his spot to one of the talented young guns, and Alex Berluti ’17 will see time at some point in the game. The good thing is the Amherst defense will pick up the slack and shut down Bates. The Jeffs will escape but not without a scare.
Hamilton at Tufts: Tufts 35- Hamilton 31
I think this will be the most entertaining game to watch. Both defenses will struggle to get off the field on third down. The difference will be which QB, Jack Doll ’15 or Chase Rosenberg ’17, makes fewer mistakes. The streak will end at 31 and the Jumbos will celebrate.