Most NESCAC teams have concluded their spring trips. You know what that means: NESCAC baseball is back! Conference games return this weekend with a full slate of games. There were no dominant teams in the preseason unlike recent years, so NESCAC play should be as competitive as ever. Here is a preview of the upcoming conference games:
Williams @ Middlebury, Friday March 30th @ University of La Verne and Saturday March 31st @ Chapman University (Doubleheader) Los Angeles, California (Midd is the home team):
This series should be fascinating for a couple reasons. Midd is only 4-8 on the season. After such a promising playoff run, the Panthers don’t look like the same team in the standingsfrom a year ago. Don’t let the record fool you, however. The losses Midd incurred came from DIII powerhouses such as Emory, Pomona-Pitzer, and #15 Redlands. A red flag shouldn’t be going off for the Panthers yet, but if they drop more than one game to Williams, I don’t think Midd will come out on top in the west. It’s also worth noting that in 2017, the Panthers started out 3-9. Colby Morris is carrying the pitching staff with a 2.18 ERA and 20.2 innings pitched. He obviously is the ace of the staff, but the two guys below him in innings pitched, Robert Erickson and Colin Waters both have ERAs in the 4’s and 8’s. Freshman Will Oppenheim will be an key arm to watch this weekend, especially after the recent injury (Tommy John surgery) to Spencer Shores, who was electric at times in 2017. Winning the Friday game of a NESCAC series is important to gain some momentum, but strong pitching has to be constant throughout the entire series, not just the opener. Similarly, the lineup has inconsistencies through it. Justin Han has clearly picked up where he left off last season with a .359 avg so far. Sam Graf, for example, hit .323 last year, but is only hitting .182. The good news for Midd is that conference play hasn’t started yet. There’s time for guys like Graf, Erickson, and Waters to become comfortable and dominate again. Williams has limped out to a 1-8 record so far. The team is clearly missing southpaw Johnny Lamont because the Ephs collectively hold a 7.40 ERA. The one silver lining in this dismal start is freshman outfielder Erik Mini. Mini is second on the team with a .345 average, and has already jacked two homers. The offense has hit started hot with a .292 team average, but quality pitching has been non-existent. Only one pitcher, George Carroll, currently holds an ERA under 4.
Expect these games to be high scoring—especially when the starting pitching becomes so-so in games two and three. Midd’s the better team, and should come out on top in this series.
Predicted conference record: Midd 2-1, Williams 1-2
Trinity @ Tufts, Friday March 30th and Saturday March 31st (Doubleheader), Medford, Mass:
One of the biggest surprises for me this season is that Tufts didn’t jump out to a hotter start. Most of the games they’ve played have been decided by a 10 or more run differential against weak teams. I know it’s spring training, but I thought Tufts’ competitive spirit would foster closer games. The Jumbos are an average 5-4 so far. Seniors Tommy O’Hara and Malcolm Nachmanoff are leading the Jumbos offense. Both are hitting in the mid to high .300’s, and have been staples in the Tufts lineup for some time. What’s the problem then? Pitching. Similar to Wesleyan a few years back, there’s an inevitable fall from grace after your top guys graduate. That was Nick Cooney and Gavin Pittore for Wesleyan. For Tufts, it’s Speros Varinos and Tim Superko. Both guys would be aces for any team in the NESCAC. Without those two, Tufts starting pitching has greatly deteriorated. Brent Greely and RJ Hall have picked up the slack as the number one and two pitchers, respectively, and they will miss Brad Marchetti for the season due to a torn ACL. After those guys, there’s a massive drop in quality pitching. Except for Spencer Langdon and the two guys mentioned above, there’s no other Jumbo pitcher with a sub 4 ERA. Like great teams, however, the Jumbos will always figure it out. Don’t let their average record fool you. The ‘Bos are still legit.
Trinity has hobbled out to a 3-7 record so far. The main area of concern for the Bantams is hitting. The team has a .259 average. NESCAC pitching is strong, so a .259 season average won’t cut it. Senior Brendan Pierce is only hitting .207, and leads the team with strikeouts. He has been a catalyst for big innings his previous three years, so he has to figure it out if the Bantams want to have a successful season. Starting pitching is solid for the Bantams as Erik Mohl leads the staff with a 2.89 ERA. The next two guys have ERAs below 4. This should bode well for Trinity down the stretch because as I’ve noted above, quality starting pitching always comes at a premium. If the Bantams can figure themselves out at the plate, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be valid competitors.
The series is held in Medford, and Tufts always utilizes their home field advantage. Look for Trinity to maybe pick up one game, but Tufts should dominate the rest.
Predicted conference record: Tufts 2-1, Trinity 1-2
Bates @ Bowdoin, Friday March 30th and Saturday March 31st, @ Colby College (Waterville, ME)
After Bates limped into the playoffs last year, it seems like the Bobcats are continuing in that path. The one statistic that can’t be overlooked is Bates’ team .191 average. .191!! That isn’t just one guy or a couple guys, it’s the whole team. Obviously the graduation of Brendan Fox and Ryan McCarthy hurt Bates a lot. The top nine Bates guys are barely hitting in the mid-.200’s if that. The Bobcats are obviously short on hitting, but their pitching hasn’t picked up the slack either. Their ace, Connor Russell, leads the team with a 4.22 ERA. It shouldn’t be stated enough that these statistics are from spring training games. However, they are indicative of what could be to come. Bates needs to figure it out at the plate and on the mound if they want a shot at reaching the playoffs again.
Bowdoin comes into the NESCAC season with a 6-6 record. That’s very solid relative to other NESCAC teams. Senior Joe Gentile mashed over spring training—hitting .405. Furthermore, many of the top guys in the Polar Bears’ lineup are hitting above .300. Bowdoin looks like they’ve improved significantly from last year. Starting pitching has been only decent. Sophomore Seamus Keenan leads the squad with a 1.42 ERA, while the next two guys in the rotation are above the 4 ERA mark. Bowdoin has been waiting some time to get back in the hunt in the east. That division is so competitive that it’s really hard for teams like Bowdoin to receive one of the covetous playoff spots.
Bowdoin and Bates seem like they’re on two different tracks: Bowdoin is rising; Bates is falling. I think this series will be won decisively.
Predicted conference record: Bowdoin 3-0, Bates 0-3
Hamilton @ Amherst, Friday March 30th and Saturday March 31st, Amherst, MA:
Amherst comes into NESCAC baseball with a 6-5 overall record after the team’s spring trip. Senior shortstop Harry Roberson leads the squad in RBIs with eleven so far. Although Roberson is only hitting .229, expect the elite NESCAC shortstop to hit in the .300’s for conference play. Roberson’s below average hitting is indicative of Amherst’s lack of success with the bats so far. The team is only hitting .262, and I don’t think they lost too many big bats from last season. Like Tufts, Amherst is one of those teams that is usually in it for the long haul; they’ll inevitably figure it out. Amherst, under Hamm’s guidance, is known for a well-balanced team. Amherst pitching has been the best in the NESCAC so far in regard to across the board depth. While reigning NESCAC pitcher of the week, Sam Schneider, is the team’s ace, Junior Andrew Ferrero, holds a 1.13 ERA and is pitching like a #1.To have great starting pitching is one thing. Dominant teams, however, have relievers who can hold a one run lead on the road. Amherst has those guys in Zach Horowitz and Mike Dow who both hold ERA’s in the low 1’s.
Hamilton arrives with a 6-7 overall record, riding a six game winning streak. In the past few years, I don’t think anyone ever doubted Hamilton’s potential. Guys like Ryan Wolfsberg, Kenny Collins, ad Andrew Haser had enormous talent, but it always seemed like Hamilton couldn’t defeat those elite teams in close ballgames. Hamilton was at Wesleyan last year, and could’ve taken at least two of the contests. Most of 2017’s games didn’t turn out in Hamilton’s favor even with their stud-filled lineup. Errors have plagued Hamilton for years and their pitching is nothing to write home about. After losing so many of their starters to graduation, they will likely have a tough time adapting to conference play. Ian Nish is an early bright spot with a 1.42 ERA, but Dan DePaoli should anchor the staff. Freshmen infielders Jarrett Lee and Matt Zaffino have mashed at the plate–holding the highest batting averages on the team (just over .400 and .375, respectively). Zafino has already accumulated ten errors, though and the Continentals need to learn how to win close ballgames which comes with experience, not youth. While they may have potential down the road, I can’t see them winning more than one game against Amherst.
Amherst is Amherst and against such an inexperienced team, they will find a way to get it done.
Predicted conference record: Amherst 2-1, Hamilton 1-2