Heading into the weekend, there are two undefeated teams remaining in the NESCAC this year. But that number will be reduced to just one after 5-0 Wesleyan takes on 5-0 Middlebury in Vermont this Saturday. For Wesleyan, a win keeps their undefeated season alive, and moves them into first place in the league, but they will be far from the favorites with Williams, Amherst, and Trinity looming in their final three games. For Middlebury, a win takes your chances of winning the league from like 95% to 99%. They would have to lose two out of three to Hamilton, Bowdoin, and Tufts. A loss would mean they no longer controlled their own destiny, but they would certainly still be title favorites. Regardless, there is a lot to be decided once the ball is kicked off.
Key #1 for Middlebury: Get Healthy
In Middlebury’s narrow escape of Colby last week, they were without First Team TE Frank Cosolito ’20, Second Team OL Kevin Woodring ’20, and lost top rusher and ROY frontrunner RB Alex Maldjian ’23 early in the game to a lower body injury. Needless to say, these three are huge pieces for the Panther offense—the best TE in the league, their most experienced lineman, and the man who has been arguably the best running back in the league this year as well. I’m told Cosolito and Maldjian are good to go for Saturday, with no word on Woodring. As is, this offense is not overwhelmingly talented—they are going to need their best players at as close to 100% as possible.
Key #2 for Middlebury: Win the Turnover Battle
It’s hard to believe that despite being 5-0, Middlebury has won the turnover battle in just 1 of their first 5 games—when they picked off Seamus Lambert 4 times in their win over Trinity. They are a -2 on the year in turnover margin—throwing 6 interceptions and fumbling 7 times, while intercepting 9 passes and recovering 2 fumbles. Jernigan alone has fumbled 7 times and lost 5 of them, an issue that could be further exacerbated if Maldjian is unable to shoulder the rushing load. To continue to lose the turnover battle and beat the teams they’ve beat is almost impossible and at some point, you have to wonder if it will catch up to them. Wesleyan, on the other hand, has dominated turnover margin, a league leading +9, in addition to a league leading 16 sacks, this defense creates havoc all over the field. Middlebury has the talent advantage in this game but it’s not great enough that they can continue to give the other team extra possessions.
Key #1 for Wesleyan: Get Ahead Early
Against the perceived favorite and on the road, this is absolutely crucial. This has been the blueprint against Middlebury all year, it just hasn’t come much to fruition, clearly. Colby gave it the best bid last week when they went up 13-0, but Middlebury responded with 27 unanswered points. Will Jernigan ’21 has greatly improved as a passer, but he is still at his best when he has his full menu of options available—being put in situations where he can run or pass. He will not be able to beat Wesleyan with his arm, they have too many playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. For Wesleyan, they did a poor job of this last week, allowing Tufts to score the only 10 points of the first half before waking up at halftime. They will not have that same luxury against Middlebury. If the Cardinals can score first and hold any sort of a lead for the first half, Middlebury will not be able to run the ball nearly as much as they would like. On the flip side, if Midd strikes first and is able to control the game, it will spell trouble for Wesleyan.
Key #2 for Wesleyan: Let Ashton Scott Loose
Wesleyan’s sophomore standout QB has been reflective of their team as a whole so far through these first five weeks—he’s performed incredibly well, as has his team, but there is still so much we don’t know about him/them due to their weak schedule. Scott is 2nd in the league in completion percentage at 62.9%, tied for 1st with 13 passing TDs, and 3rd in the league in yards per attempt with 8.0, while also being tied for 1st with just 2 interceptions. He has shown the ability to make plays with his feet as well, 10th in the league with 50.2 rushing yards per game, which is tied for 3rd amongst all QBs. The coaching staff has been careful not to ask him to do too much as they have wisely and effectively allowed him to grow into his role, but at this point in the season, he is his team’s most talented offensive player. They have to take the training wheels off and let him win, or lose, this game.
Everything Else:
This is such a fascinating game for so many reasons. Stylistically, we’ve already highlighted how the turnovers could cause serious problems for Middlebury, but also how they keep winning in spite of them. Wesleyan will come into this game probably has confident as they have been all year, following an under the lights thriller in their first real test of the season against Tufts, won on a 29-yard connection between Scott and WR Matthew Simco ’22 with just 6 seconds left. Middlebury knows they dodged a serious bullet last week between a blocked PAT that would have tied the game with 7 minutes left, and obviously what would have been the game winning FG from 37 yards with 20 seconds left. This could be, in the long run, the best thing to have happened to Middlebury—a wake-up call. Will we see them come out more motivated to correct their mistakes from last week, or will another poor performance build on itself? When it comes to picking a winner, there are so many unknowns, but I know more about this Middlebury team than I do about Wesleyan. No one has won more big games than Will Jernigan this year. Every single week he and this team find a way, and I think they will find a way again.
Prediction: Middlebury 24, Wesleyan 17
Just read this, 6 days after the game.
In retrospect, this was about as good a review as could be written.
Congrats, Mr. Karpowicz.