Ashton Scott – Nothing But NESCAC

The Official Nothing But NESCAC Football Postseason Awards

Now that we have such an interesting season of individual performances in the books, we thought it would be interesting to have two sets of eyes (Haven and Matt) tackle this year’s edition of postseason awards. With no clear and obvious offensive and defensive players of the year, we did our best to present what we felt were the best candidates for the biggest individual awards the league has to offer.

Matt’s note: I would prefer you not click this link, but if you are interested in seeing how our preseason picks did, here are my predictions from September: https://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=7618

Offensive Player of the Year:

Haven’s Pick: WR Frank Roche (Tufts)

Midway through this season, another Frank essentially had this award in the bag- Frank Stola from Williams. Teams started to figure out Stola after that point, though, and his production dipped dramatically. The opposite happened to Roche, a Tufts graduate student from nearby Arlington, MA who has remained with the team since 2015 despite lots of trouble with injuries. Anyone involved with sports has heard the old cliche: it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. While Roche did not exceed 100 receiving yards in any of his first four games, he never had fewer than 50 and he had a long catch of at least 35 yards in each game to go along with two touchdowns. His numbers after that point were simply unbelievable. He finished the season with at least 6 catches and 100 yards in each of his final five games. This included an absurd eight touchdowns over his final three games. In addition to being a frequent endzone visitor, Roche was also extremely dangerous after the catch. He had games this season where he averaged 37, 30, 27, and 23 yards per catch. Tufts realized over the course of the season that they were not going to be led to glory by their run game, so they began to air it out with QB Jacob Carroll and often liked to go long to Roche or OJ Armstrong. Roche’s phenomenal play during the second half of the season helped Tufts develop a lethal passing attack despite remaining a middle of the pack team. He led the NESCAC in receiving yards, yards per catch, and was second in touchdowns. What makes his stats more impressive is that he did not even lead his team in receptions- that honor went to Armstrong. Roche made himself known as a standout receiver when his senior class has been synonymous with names like Koby Schofer and James O’Regan. Next year’s league will also feature a strong group of receivers- Stola will be back, along with Trinity’s Jon Girard and Wesleyan’s Matthew Simco. Nobody produced down the stretch this season like Roche, though. In a year down on running back talent and with no real standout single QB like we have had in past years, Roche separated himself from the competition by stepping up his game down the stretch and being a dangerous big play/scoring threat on a mediocre team. He made the most of his fifth year and is our pick for OPOY.

Matt’s Pick: QB Bobby Maimaron (Williams)

Like Haven mentioned, there were not a lot of standout options for this award this year after Stola’s 2nd half. I picked Maimaron for a few reasons–the 20:2 TD:INT ratio is just ridiculous, and it is actually just the 10th season ever in which a NESCAC QB threw for 20+ TDs (Only the 3rd non Middlebury Air Raid season as well). He was 4th in the league in rushing yards, while orchestrating the devastating RPO that allowed the Ephs to run for 240 yards a game. The completion percentage (47.8%) and passing yards per game (162.9) are the obvious knocks, and while I’m not arguing that he’s Joe Burrow, those stats were largely affected by throwaways and the fact that they were a run first offense whose top receiver was double and triple teamed for the last month of the season. He was just 9th in the league in attempts, but despite the completion percentage, ranked 3rd in yards per attempt (8.0) and 2nd in yards per completion (16.7). And among the top teams in the league, who else would you pick?

Honorable Mentions: Frank Stola (Williams), Alex Maldjian (Middlebury), Will Jernigan (Middlebury), Ashton Scott (Wesleyan)

Haven’s Pick: LB Joe Gowetski (Bowdoin)

The fact that Bowdoin went 0-9 should not take away from the fact that Gowetski, a senior from Needham, MA, was all over the field every Saturday. While individual performances always look better with team success, guys like Gowetski and Polar Bears RB Nate Richam were standout players on bad units and were likely gameplanned for extensively. That makes their numbers even more impressive. What made Gowetski great this year was his knack for being around the ball. He was second in the NESCAC with 84 total tackles, first in tackles for loss with 21, and tied for third on the sacks list with 5.5. This is in addition to a forced fumble and fumble recovery. I agree with Matt that there was no clear standout defensive player this season like an Andrew Yamin last year, and I think Middlebury, Williams, and Wesleyan’s standout guys all deserve recognition for their contributions to their team’s success. However, I have a soft spot for guys who go into every game knowing their chances of winning are slim to none and still perform. Gowetski’s stats showed that he was constantly around the ball and probably affected countless plays that did not show up in the stat line. His individual efforts on a team where he did not get much help earn him Co-DPOY in his senior season.

Matt’s Pick: LB Jack Pistorius (Middlebury)

The DPOY race was much like the OPOY race–LB Joe Kelly of Amherst raced out to an early lead through the first half of the season, but injuries down the stretch cost him and opened this award to a ton of different guys. There are so many different options–Williams and Trinity had the two best defenses in the league, but none of their individual numbers stand out, while guys at Middlebury and Wesleyan ran up the numbers and finished with the two best records in the league. Ultimately I chose Pistorius, not just because of his terrific numbers–72 tackles (4th), 5.5 sacks (4th), and 11.5 TFL (10th)–but because of his performances in their biggest games of the season:

Williams: 7 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0.5 TFL
Trinity: 10 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL
Amherst: 13 tackles, 2 TFL
Wesleyan: 10 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFL

In their biggest games of their 9-0 championship season, the majority of which we expected them to finally lose, it was Pistorius who rose to the challenge and led their defense and their team to the 4 wins that defined their season.

Honorable Mentions: LB Pete Huggins (Middlebury), LB Luke Apuzzi (Williams), CB Ben Thaw (Wesleyan)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: RB Alex Maldjian (Middlebury)

Any NESCAC football fan that followed Middlebury’s success this season had to see this one coming. Not only was Maldjian the best rookie running back, he was also the best running back period by most accounts. A freshman out of Rumson, New Jersey, Maldjian led the conference in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns. His ball security was impressive as well as he only lost one fumble all season. Maldijan was simply unparallelled as a NESCAC running back. He was the only player to register triple digit yards per game and the only player to record double digit rush touchdowns with ten in eight and a half games. Combine this with Middlebury quarterback Will Jernigan’s 511 rush yards and 8 touchdowns, and it makes sense why Midd gave us the first 9-0 season in league history. When the pass game faltered or the defense was gassed, the Panthers continually relied on Maldjian to gain tough yards, run clock and give the D some rest. Coach Bob Ritter clearly had a lot of faith in Maldjian from day 1, as he got 21 carries in his first college game against a league-best Williams defense. Maldjian did not need much time to adjust to the speed and physicality of the college game after that. He totaled 361 scores and two touchdowns in his next three games, two of which were against Trinity and Amherst. It became clear early in the season that Maldjian was going to be a force to be reckoned with in the next few seasons. His impact was even felt when he was off the field. On October 12 vs. Colby, Maldjian was injured in the first half and did not return, only registering five carries. This ended up being Middlebury’s closest game, a 27-26 win in which they were bailed out by multiple Mule missed kicks and frankly were outplayed. If he had played this whole game, there’s a decent chance we could be talking about a thousand yard rusher here. Maldjian would return next Saturday and put the Panther offense on his back. He was at his best when Midd became the team everyone wanted to take down. Over his last four games, Maldjian averaged a whopping 28.5 carries per game and totaled 471 yards with 7 touchdowns. Most NESCAC backs would be happy with 7 touchdowns over an entire season, but this kid did it in four games as a freshman. This level of production was more than enough to earn him OROY. With Maldjian in the backfield for the next three years, Middlebury fans should feel great about their team’s chances for another ring.

Honorable Mention: RB Joel Nicholas (Williams)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: S Drew Michalek (Williams)

A two man race for this award between Michalek and DL Nick Helbig, Wesleyan, ultimately goes to the Eph, who helped anchor their league best defense with 3 INTs and a fumble recovery, while also racking up an impressive 44 tackles from the secondary. The Williams defense did not force a ton of turnovers, but when they did, Michalek was often right in the thick of things–his team leading 5th pass break up on the 3rd play of the game against Amherst fell into fellow S Ben Anthony’s hands for a pick 6 in their 31-9 season finale win.

Honorable Mention: DL Nick Heptig (Wesleyan)

Coach of the Year: Bob Ritter (Middlebury)

It wasn’t just that Middlebury completed the first 9-0 season in NESCAC history. Or the fact that no one had Middlebury in their championship picture at the start of the season. It was the way they did it. Wins against Williams, Trinity, and Amherst in 3 of the first 4 weeks of the season put them firmly in the driver’s seat, but also painted a huge target on their backs. They played their best game of the season in a 45-21 blowout of Wesleyan in what proved to be the de facto conference championship game, and then showed their championship mettle in nailbiters down the stretch, winning 3 of their final 5 games by one possession or less. And on top of all of that, it was how they did it–reinventing themselves as a power run team after years of shattering passing records behind some of the most prolific arms in league history. Despite the lack of big arm, and even losing key OL to graduation, Ritter guided QB Will Jernigan’s development into the best big game QB in the league, and RB Alex Maldjian burst onto the scene as the best RB in the league in his first season of football. Returning most of their top offensive weapons, as well as their top 7 tacklers, Ritter should have a great chance to repeat next year.

Honorable Mentions: Dan DiCenzo (Wesleyan), David Murray (Hamilton)

Special teams Co-POY:

K Sam Thoreen (Hamilton)

(10/10 FGs, longest made FG of the season, 23/25 XPs, 2nd highest scoring kicker, 6th highest scoring player)

K Mason Von Jess (Wesleyan)

(8/12 FGs, 31/32 XPs, top scoring kicker, 4th highest scoring player)

It Is What It Is: 2019 End-of-Season Power Rankings

(1) 1. Middlebury (9-0)

No surprises here – the Panthers capped off the first 9-0 season in NESCAC history with a convincing victory over Tufts in Medford. Rookie RB Alex Maldjian ’23 led the league in rushing with 905 yards on the season (100.6 per game) and he seems to be a shoe-in for the NESCAC Rookie of the Year award. The receiving corps took a big step up this year and that was in large part due to the enormous improvement of QB Will Jernigan ’21. The Georgia native must have spent the summer implementing the TB12 method because he looked like an entirely different quarterback this year than he did last year. As a sophomore in 2018, Jernigan was 8^th in the league with 127 passing yards per game and 10 touchdowns on the year. In 2019 he finished 2^nd in the league with 221 passing yards per game and 16 touchdowns. It’s starting to make sense why they went from 5-4 in 2018 to 9-0 this season.

It would also be impossible to talk about this Middlebury team without talking about the defense – this unit led the NESCAC in interceptions and sacks, terrorizing opposing teams all year. The junior LB duo of Pete Huggins ’21 and Jack Pistorius ’21 finished tied for 4^th in the conference in tackles with 72 each, they were both top-10 in TFLs, and they each added an interception for good measure. These guys would both be the best linebacker on any other team and the Panthers have them both! DB Kevin Hartley ’20 finished tied for 1^st with 5 interceptions on the year and both Michael Carr ’20 and Finn Muldoon ’23 were top-10 in the NESCAC in picks as well. There’s no controversy this year – it’s safe to say that Middlebury was the best team and they proved it. Of their 9 games on the year, 6 of them were decided by one score or less and those include a double overtime victory at Amherst and a one-point scare against Colby. No matter who they were up against the Panthers were able to do just enough to find a way to win and that’s what championship teams do. Congrats to Panther Nation.

(3) 2. Wesleyan (8-1)

We’ve taken a lot of heat from Wesleyan fans over the past few weeks and deservedly so. Not a single one of us here at NbN believed that the Cardinals would be able to go 8-1 or honestly even 7-2. Even after their 5-0 start I thought that they were going to finish 6-3 or maybe even 5-4 given that they closed out the season with Middlebury, Amherst, Williams, and Trinity. Well they absolutely proved us wrong and I’m willing to admit that. Ashton Scott ’22 looks like the next star quarterback of the NESCAC and he made a legit POY case with his 17:3 TD:INT ratio and a league-leading completion percentage. Scott couldn’t have done it without the help of fellow classmate and breakout star Matthew Simco ’22 who finished 4^th in the conference in both receiving yards and touchdowns, while finishing 3^rd in receptions. The duo of Ben Thaw ’20 and Danny Banks ’22 are likely the best DB combo in the NESCAC with Thaw leading the league in picks and pass break ups and Banks coming in at 2^nd in picks and 3^rd in PBUs. The fact that Wesleyan was able to take down Amherst and Williams in consecutive weeks and going to 3 overtimes in the process is incredibly impressive and frankly it’s a shame that they couldn’t put up more of a fight against Middlebury because that would’ve been a ton of fun to watch. Either way this was a very impressive year for the Cardinals and with all the youth on their roster I don’t think this will be the last we’re hearing from these guys…

(2) 3. Williams (7-2)

I just want to go on record and say that if they’re able to avoid any major injuries to key players next year, the Ephs are my pick to win the 2020 NESCAC Championship. Yeah they lost two games this year and they lost those two games fair and square, but I really think this is the best team in the league. QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 has my vote for Offensive Player of the Year with his league leading 20 TDs and 2 INTs (also good for the best TD:INT ratio), while also adding the 4^th most rushing yards in the conference. These are pretty incredible numbers and they’re also very difficult to sustain given that Williams almost exclusively runs RPOs. This kid is a stud. WR Frank Stola ’21 got off to one of the best starts to a season in recent memory for a receiver and Coach Raymond took full advantage, often using Stola as a decoy to draw away defenders during a few of their games later in the year. What may have taken the most pressure off of Maimaron was the Ephs’ menacing defense that led the league in both yards and points allowed. That’s how you keep your team in games. They say that defense wins championships so if this defense can ride the momentum into next year then it will be a very long season for anyone not wearing purple and gold.

(5) 4. Trinity (5-4)

In hindsight I kind of feel like we made the same mistake for Trinity that we did for Wesleyan, but the other way around. Because of their recent history, we assumed that the Bantams were pretty much the favorite for every game they played in. It turned out that they really weren’t that good this year, at least not by their standards. We all know how Coach Devanney loves running up the score so they had some lopsided victories over the Maine schools but when it came to the upper echelon of the league they really struggled. It took the Bantams until the 4^th quarter to put away Hamilton and their 21-7 win over Amherst isn’t as impressive as it usually is because the Mammoths weren’t that great this year either. They lost one-possession games to Tufts, Middlebury, and Wesleyan, exposing their immaturity and showing that they tended to panic when time was winding down. Realistically this year is probably nothing more than a speed bump for this perennial powerhouse, but with the re-emergence of Williams and the improvements of Hamilton it’s time for the Bantams to start watching their backs.

(6) 5. Hamilton (4-5)

I’m really torn about what to say here because I was fully prepared to write a rave review about this year’s Continental team until they totally blew it in their final game against Bates. If you’re up 21-0 in the first half against a team that has only won once in the last two years then there’s really no excuse not to close that one out. With that being said, there are still a ton of positive takeaways from this season for Hamilton. They were able to beat both Amherst and Tufts for the first time in a while and they battled with Trinity until the final whistle. The emergence of David Kagan ’20 as a legitimate threat out of the backfield was huge to ease the burden for QB Kenny Gray ’20 who has really carried this team for the last four years. They also benefitted from an experienced trio of receivers in Christian Donahoe ’20, Will Budington ’21, and Sam Robinson ’20, each of whom stepped up in big moments, particularly given that WR Joe Schmidt ’20 was battling injury. I also think kicker Sam Thoreen ’22 deserves recognition because this guy is truly the best kicker in the league – he was a perfect 10/10 on field goals and 23/25 on extra points, giving him 53 points on the year which trailed only Mason Von Jess ’23 of Wesleyan. Coach Murray has done an outstanding job with this program and they are absolutely headed in the right direction, but they lose a lot to graduation this year so now we’ll have to wait and see if they can continue this positive trend with a new generation of faces.

(4) 6. Amherst (4-5)

Much like the Bantams’ season, this one was a disappointment for the Mammoths. Their first losing season since 1993 is definitely tough to swallow, particularly when so many of their games were decided in the final minutes or even seconds. It sort of felt like they were losing steam every game – once they suffered their first loss in double overtime to Middlebury things really started to spiral out of control. They easily took down Bowdoin the following week but then blew an 11-point lead with 4 minutes left against Hamilton, lost in double overtime again, this time to Wesleyan, and were smacked in their final two games against Williams and Trinity to close out the year on a 4-game losing streak. It seems to me that we should have treated Amherst like we treated Wesleyan earlier in the year – they started the year with the easier portion of their schedule and took care of business, but struggled mightily against the top teams and at times seemed overmatched. This is pretty much what we expected the Cardinals to do, but instead they went the other direction and got better as the year went on, playing some of their best games late in the year and beating a few of the top teams.

It’s clear that they really felt the losses of RB Jack Hickey and LB Andrew Yamin from last season because those guys were two of the best playmakers in the league. It felt like the Mammoths were lacking star power at times and that really showed; QB Ollie Eberth ’20 saw his interception totals balloon from just 1 last season to 13 this season. Thirteen!! That’s a ridiculous increase and it’s pretty much because he was only throwing to one guy. WR James O’Regan ’20 had twice as many touchdowns (8) as any other player on their roster and he had more than double the amount of receiving yards as the next most on the team. It’s hard to make things happen when defenses know exactly who you’re trying to get the ball to. This is definitely a season to forget for Amherst and they’ll lose their top two offensive players to graduation this year so it’ll be interesting to see who they bring in to replace these key pieces.

(7) 7. Tufts (4-5)

This was a really weird year for the Jumbos. It felt like every week a different team came to play. They felt the high of beating the defending champion Bantams in Week 1 and the low of getting blown out by Hamilton at home in Week 7. QB Jacob Carroll ’20 quietly led the league with 247 passing yards per game and was 2^nd with 19 touchdown passes, but was sloppy with the ball at times and threw more interceptions than anyone in the league besides Eberth. QB Trevon Woodson ’23 looked excellent in his short stints as the backup, so it’s possible that they have a more than capable replacement waiting for next season. WR Frank Roche ’20 had an outstanding year as he led the league with over 100 receiving yards per game and was 2^nd with 10 touchdowns, but they didn’t have many other receiving threats and the run game was essentially non-existant. LB Greg Holt ’20 led the league in tackles and will soon receive another All-NESCAC selection, but the defense was nothing special and forced the fewest turnovers of anyone besides Bowdoin. It seems like Coach Civetti is faced with a similar challenge to some of the other coaches in the league: his first generation of star players (i.e. Chance Brady, Ryan McDonald) have come and gone and now he has to continue the trend. All the pieces are in place to do that, but it’s hard to know what to expect from the Jumbos moving forward.

(9) 8. Bates (2-7)

Easily my most controversial* pick in the end-of-season rankings is putting Bates ahead of a Colby team that beat them head-to-head and finished with an identical record. It’s easy to forget, however, that the Bates-Colby game was all but won by the Bobcats when they scored a would-be game-winning touchdown in the final minutes before it ended up being nullified by one of those classic phantom holding flags that we’re all accustomed to in the NESCAC. It seemed like they only gained momentum from there because they destroyed Bowdoin the next week and successfully orchestrated a 21-point comeback against Hamilton in the final game to end up with a more respectable 2-7 record. Brendan Costa ’21 is probably the most underrated quarterback in the league and he showed towards the end of this year that not only can he run and throw at a high level, but he can lead crucial drives late with the game on the line. This type of thing only comes with experience and that’s something that Costa surely has now that he’s spent nearly 3 full years as the starter. The Bobcats also showed that they have some real offensive threats, although nearly all of them battled injuries this year. Christian Olivieri ’22, Jackson Hayes ’22, Sean Bryant ’22, and Mohamed Diawara ’23 are the core of a receiving unit that has seen some serious improvements and their committee of running backs headlined by Liam Spillane ’21, Jaason Lopez ’21, and Tyler Bridge ’23 looked competitive with the best of them in spurts. As evidenced by the plethora of underclassmen mentioned so far, Bates isn’t losing much to graduation this year. If they can add a few more pieces and pick up where they left off then this will be a very different Bobcat team in 2020.

*Yes, I do believe that the words “controversial” and “biased” can be used interchangeably.

(8) 9. Colby (2-7)

I’d say this ended up being a pretty standard season for Colby football. They were mildly competitive in some games, beat Bates and Colby, and gave Middlebury their biggest scare of the season. When the dust settled they found themselves the winners of the CBB for the second year in a row and because I anticipate hearing from someone how it’s ludicrous to put Bates ahead of Colby, I will address it – I was at the Bates-Colby game and to be blunt the Bobcats were the better team that day. Yeah they lost, but outplaying Colby and having the referees take away a win does not go unnoticed. The better team doesn’t always win in sports and that was the case here. The Bobcats went on to solidify this claim by taking down Hamilton (who obliterated the Mules in Week 3) in their final game.

At the end of the day, this was not a terrible season for Colby. Winning the CBB is still something to be proud of and QB Matt Hersch ’22 had himself a solid second season, averaging over 200 yards per game through the air. Chris George ’20 emerged as the replacement for Jake Schwern out of the backfield and he had a solid year, as did receivers Andrew DeFranco ’20 and Rory Glavin ’21. LB Marcus Bullard ’21 finished 3^rd in the NESCAC in tackles, but other than him the defense was unremarkable. The Mules were 2^nd to last in the league in sacks so the defense really wasn’t able to get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They were also 2^nd to last in rushing yards allowed per game, so the front 4 will need to be a point of emphasis heading into next season. Colby has nothing to be ashamed of after this season, especially after nearly taking down the league champs in Week 5. Coach Cosgrove now has 2 consecutive 2-win seasons, so the bar is set. 3 is the magic number.

(10) 10. Bowdoin (0-9)

It can’t be fun to be a Bowdoin Polar Bear football fan. Last in the almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball in 2019, 1 win over the last 4 years, and a new coaching staff that has an uphill battle every step of the way. RB Nate Richam-Odoi ’20 was 2^nd in the conference in rushing yards; though he was pretty much the only bright spot on the offensive side except for maybe RB Brendan Ward ’22 who had a team-high 4 touchdown catches. LB Joe Gowetski ’20 finished with 84 tackles on the year, which was good for 2^nd in the NESCAC, but the same could be said for him as Richam-Odoi – they didn’t really have anyone else on defense who made an impact and Gowetski couldn’t do it all himself, so it was a very long year. Hopefully Coach Hammer has a good recruiting class lined up for next year because things are looking grim otherwise.

Better Safe Than Sorry: Williams vs. Wesleyan Game of the Week Preview

The 2^nd chapter of the most exciting three weeks of the season opens this weekend and there will be no better game than this Little Three tilt in Middletown. For both teams, a win is an absolute must to keep their 0.01% chances of winning a title (unofficial calculations) alive, but regardless of Middlebury’s last two games, there is so much more on the line than that. For Wesleyan, it is a chance to clinch the Little Three title following last week’s 2OT thriller against Amherst, and for Coach DiCenzo to continue his undefeated record against his alma mater that turned him down as head coach.

For Williams, it is the final stop on the 0-8 Revenge Tour, the only team the Ephs have yet to beat since Coach Mark Raymond took over. Wesleyan has taken a special joy in beating Williams for the last 6 years. On paper, this appears to be Williams’ best chance to defeat their rival since that streak began and give themselves their own chance to win their first Little Three since 2010. This should be an absolute battle—there are no guarantees when these two meet, not anymore.

Key #1 for Wesleyan: Pick One, Or Don’t

As Cam so elegantly and gracefully put in this week’s stock report, Williams has found so many different ways to beat teams this year. They are the league leaders in rushing by a comfortable margin, picking up 227 yards a game, nearly 40 more than the next closest team. The most impressive part about this rushing attack has been its consistency—they have rushed for more than 200 yards in 6 of their 7 games. Unsurprisingly, their lone loss to Middlebury came when they were held to 101 rushing yards. But they also boast the league’s best WR in Frank Stola ’21, and QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 leads the league in touchdown passes with 18. It presents quite a dilemma—Trinity was able to keep Frank Stola from catching a single ball, but their double teams and triple teams allowed the Ephs to run for 210 yards, and soon to be All-League RB Dan Vaughn ’22 had a career high 123 of those. Personally, if I’m Wesleyan, I have to focus on the run. Stola has killed teams that have left him in 1-on-1 coverage—4 TDs each and over 400 receiving yards combined against Tufts and Hamilton, but neither of those teams have the secondary that Wesleyan has. He may get loose and may he still beat you—that’s just the way it goes. But in their loss against Middlebury he had 6 catches, 151 yards, and 2 TDs—it’s the rushing game that needs to be stopped.

Key #2 for Wesleyan: Win the Turnover Battle

Not exactly a secret here, but the key to the Cardinals’ 6-1 start has been their abilities to cause turnovers and negative plays to get their offense on the field. Their 14 interceptions and 19 sacks lead the league, and their average time of possession of 33:14 per game is 2^nd. Conversely, Williams has turned the ball over less than anyone in the league, just 6 times, punctuated by Bobby Maimaron throwing just 2 interceptions—something has to give. If the Ephs control the ball and allow their running game to dictate the tempo, they will have a huge advantage, wearing defenses down as the game goes on like they did to Trinity, and allowing their defense to hold the lead. Wesleyan needs short fields and big defensive plays, something they are very capable of. They are the only team in the league that has three players with 3.5+ sacks—LB Nick Livingston ’21 (5), DL Nick Helbig ’23 (4), and LB Babila Fomuteh ’21 (3.5). That doesn’t even mention DL Taj Gooden ’21, arguably the most talented defensive player in the league despite his decrease in numbers this season, or fellow DL Jackson Eighmy ’21, who had 6.5 sacks last year—all while being watched over by the ball hawking duo of Danny Banks ’22 (4 INTs) and Ben Thaw ’20 (3). Should be quite the personnel battle, to say the least.

Key for Williams #1: Make Ashton Scott Uncomfortable

Forgive me for copying almost directly what Haven wrote last week when he said that the key for Williams’ would be defensive line pressure, but it worked so well that I really have no choice but to plagiarize. Coach Raymond and DC Mark McDonough dialed up an outstanding defensive gameplan in their win against the Bantams—6 sacks (after having 8 in the first 6 games) and 13 tackles for loss, both a season high. Dialing up blitzes has not been a key part of this defense otherwise, and now that the cat is out of the bag, they might have to find different ways to get into the backfield. QB Ashton Scott ’22 has proven in a short time to be one of the best passers in the NESCAC—4^th in the league in passing yards (209.9 YPG) and 2^nd in passing TDs (17), while also being one of the most accurate—2^nd with a 61.0% completion percentage. Scott’s only game with a completion percentage below 57% was also their only loss, when he went 15-31 (48.4%) against Middlebury. It’s a pretty simple formula—force him to make harder throws and have a better chance to win the football game.

Key for Williams #2: Winning Mentality

As already mentioned, this is the only team the Ephs have not beaten under Mark Raymond. The seniors have never beaten Wesleyan, and quite frankly every single loss has come with some extra sting—trailing 56-14 at half at Homecoming, blanked 35-0, and a 21-14 loss last season at home in the first season since Raymond took over where you could say with considerable confidence that Williams was the better team. When they come to Middletown on Saturday, they will again be the better team, having scored more points, allowed less points, gained more yards, and allowed less yards than Wesleyan through 7 games. But this is the type of game where you can throw away the stats. Coach DiCenzo LOVES beating Williams. He probably already has the Little Three championship t-shirts printed up and ready to go. His team has never known defeat at the hands of the Ephs and they have no reason to think that will change this weekend. It’s up to Williams to bring its A game in a hostile road environment if they want to check this final team off of its list. Turnover margin, rushing yards, special teams, none of it matters.

Everything Else:

Quite frankly, I already buried the lede in that last paragraph, but that’s the reality when it comes to this game between these two teams. On paper, this game belongs to Williams. Winning on the road in this league is really hard but they proved last week that they’re definitely capable of it, winning in Hartford in a place that nobody wins. Sure, there are a ton of other factors—Wesleyan winning the physical battle against a banged up Williams OL, the Ephs’ defense yet to really play from behind this year, or Ashton Scott ’22 and his weapons vastly improving week by week. But if you didn’t know these two teams, you would think these things would matter. They won’t.

Prediction: Williams 25, Wesleyan 16

A Chance to Wrap it Up: Weekend Preview 11/2

The first weekend in November signals the penultimate weekend of NESCAC football, with a chance to crown a champion by Saturday’s end. Will Middlebury solidify their place among the rest of the competition, or will they slip up and allow Williams or Wesleyan back into the picture? Elsewhere, the Jumbos have a trip to Waterville to face off with Colby, who just got their first win of the season last weekend against Bates. Speaking of the ‘Cats, they are set to finish up their CBB slate with a primetime night contest against the Polar Bears in what is sure to be an intense atmosphere. Let’s get to it.

For a quick update, here’s how each of our writers are doing in their weekly picks:
Ryan Moralejo: 29-6
Haven Cutko: 28-7
Matt Karpowicz: 27-8
Cameron Carlson: 26-9
Spencer Smead: 24-11

Hamilton (4-3) @ Middlebury (7-0), 12:30pm, Middlebury, Vermont

For Middlebuty, the time is finally here: after weeks of clinging to the top spot, while most of the general public assumed they would eventually trip up, the Panthers have defied all odds and are one win away from claiming their first NESCAC Championship since they were crowned co-champions in 2013. It hasn’t been pretty by any means, but credit Coach Ritter and his staff for a fantastic season to date in addition to earning his 100th career win in their victory last week against Bowdoin. They put their guys in a position to disrupt plays and minimize their opponent’s strengths every weekend, and the players have remained level-headed and poised throughout the early gauntlet of their schedule. Now is not the time to sit back. The Panthers will be sure to not take the Continentals lightly after their recent surge up the standings. Their 36-21 victory against Tufts did not do Hamilton justice for their absolute dominating performance on the road, racing out to a 34-7 lead by halftime. Kenny Gray ‘20 is finally rounding into form, and he added to his recent uptick in quality play by throwing for 236 yards and three touchdowns. Although David Kagan ‘20 was held to just 39 yards, reserve tailback Joe Park ‘22 made it clear that there would be no drop off in production with a career-high 126 yard performance. The Continentals will need to keep their ground game churning against a stout Panthers’ front seven that is second in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game.

The biggest challenge will be Hamilton’s defense versus Middlebury’s offense; what was (for the majority of the season) a below-average defense has been performing well in recent weeks in large part because they’ve continued to force turnovers. Hamilton sits tied for second in the league with seventeen, including multiple takeaways in six of their seven games. WIth the offense finally clicking, those turnovers are being converted into points, and it is clear that this combination has transformed the New Yorkers into a legitimate upset pick for this Saturday. Given the fact that Will Jernigan ‘21 has a tendency to cough up the ball (6 interceptions and 6 fumbles to date), his focus should be on remaining patient and letting the plays develop in front of him; the Continentals are still allowing 373.4 yards and 28 points per game, so it’s more about making smart decisions and not forcing passes into tight windows or holding onto the ball too long. I really want to pick Hamilton just so the last week of NESCAC football is more entertaining, but I believe the Panthers will rally after digging themselves a hole early on, clinching the NESCAC Championship on Senior Day.

Picks:
RM: Middlebury 33, Hamilton 27
HC: Middlebury 31, Hamilton 27
MK: Middlebury 35, Hamilton 20
CC: Middlebury 31, Hamilton 27
SS: Middlebury 35, Hamilton 20

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Tufts (3-4) @ Colby (1-6), 1:00pm, Waterville, Maine

I’ll be honest: I have no real confidence in either team. On paper, Tufts most certainly possesses the better team, but its plethora of individual talent hasn’t been nearly enough to win games. Tufts disappointing season is, in large part, due to the team’s inability to play a well-rounded game. The 49-0 drubbing they handed to Bowdoin gave me a slight indication that the Jumbos might have figured it out, but once again, the defense fell apart. The Jumbos must do something on that side of the ball to stifle the Mules’ offense, such as creating more blitz packages. Turnovers haven’t been in abundance for the defense this season (second worst with only 6 forced), but the Mules have coughed up the football 6 times over the past three weeks. Matt Hersch ‘22 played really well in the first half against Bates, but he was a no-show for the remaining 30 minutes. The special teams was an absolute disaster, with Moises Celaya ‘22 missing an extra point and having both a field goal and a punt blocked. Furthermore, a bad snap cost Celaya 15 yards and gave Bates a chance to tie or win the game in the final minute. Their special teams play has to be impeccable if they want to hang around with the Jumbos on Saturday. Colby is probably more fired up to play Tufts than vice-versa based on recent results, but I’m sticking with the Jumbos in a high-scoring affair.

Picks:
RM: Tufts 43, Colby 27
HC: Tufts 23, Colby 6
MK: Tufts 35, Colby 10
CC: Tufts 42, Colby 10
SS: Tufts 21, Colby 13

Writers’ Pick: Tufts

Trinity (4-3) @ Amherst (4-3), 1:00pm, Amherst, Massachusetts

It’s really quite odd to have both of these perennial powerhouses already eliminated from the NESCAC Championship race with two games remaining on the season, and they each suffered significant defeats this past weekend. For the Bantams, their three-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Ephs and its ferocious front seven, who constantly harassed quarterback Seamus Lambert ‘22 and bottled up running back Tijani Harris ‘22 (27 carries for 42 yards). Granted, Williams does boast the league’s best defense in terms of points allowed per game, but this is Trinity we’re talking about. With the talent that Trinity has, it’s simply a disappointment that the offense has looked so volatile, especially after exhibiting the capability to hang 60 points.

Amherst would, in theory, should present another tough challenge for the Bantams’ offense, but I’m not sure how much this team has left in the tank from an emotional standpoint. Of course they’ll be ready for next week’s rivalry game against the Ephs, but you have to think that their rather shocking loss to the Cardinals leaves them shaking their heads at what could have been. Although quarterback Ollie Eberth ‘20 turned the ball over twice in the first half, Amherst managed to find themselves leading the visitors 28-21 entering the fourth quarter. A Cardinals’ touchdown tied it with roughly twelve minutes remaining, and Eberth failed to gain a first down on his remaining possessions in regulation. In overtime, Henry Atkeson ‘20 had an opportunity to clinch the game with a 24 yard field goal after fellow kicker Mason Von Jess ‘23 nailed the right upright from 18 yards out, but the senior endured the same result. To make things worse, Eberth threw his third interception on the ensuing possession in double overtime, allowing the Cardinals to convert their own game-winning field goal. Amherst knows they shouldn’t have lost to Wesleyan, just like how they shouldn’t have lost to Hamilton or Middlebury. This team simply doesn’t know how to close out a game, and I’m more confident siding with the team who tends to respond after suffering defeat.

Picks:
RM: Trinity 27, Amherst 17
HC: Trinity 27, Amherst 26
MK: Trinity 38. Amherst 20
CC: Trinity 27, Amherst 21
SS: Amherst 31, Trinity 24

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Williams (6-1) @ Wesleyan (6-1), 1:00pm, Middletown, Connecticut

This is our game of the week, but the Cardinals showed some life in their come-from-behind victory against the Mammoths. Ashton Scott ‘22 is the real deal, and Matthew Simco ‘22 is a big playmaker that will give any defense problems; but this is the best defensive unit in the NESCAC, and their double-digit road victory against Trinity reaffirms my belief that this is the best and most complete team in the league. In a battle of one-loss foes, it’ll be Williams who dominates the time of possession and makes life hard on Scott. Ephs fans will be simultaneously praying that Hamilton can knock off Middlebury and keep the championship race open for one more week.

Picks:
RM: Williams 36, Wesleyan 20
HC: Williams 27, Wesleyan 13
MK: Williams 25, Wesleyan 16
CC: Williams 28, Wesleyan 14
SS: Williams 31, Wesleyan 21

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Bowdoin (0-7) @ Bates (0-7), 5:30pm, Lewiston, ME

Welcome to the 2019 Toilet Bowl featuring (for the second consecutive year) Bates and Bowdoin. All jokes aside, for the Bobcats, last week’s battle against the Mules gives me room for optimism heading into Saturday’s clash. Colby punched Bates in the mouth right from the get-go, racing out to a 23-0 lead. The Bobcats could have folded right then and there, but Jackson Hayes’ ‘22 47-yard touchdown reception as time expired gave the ‘Cats some momentum heading into the second half. For the remaining 30 minutes, Bates absolutely dominated the Mules on both sides of the ball. The defense stifled Colby’s offense to the tune of just 78 total second half yards, while Brendan Costa ‘21 and the offense nearly doubled that number. The special teams unit gave Celaya nightmares all second half, ignited by senior captain Jon Lindgren’s field goal block with 4:46 left in the third quarter.

The Bobcats were potentially one dropped pass away from forcing overtime, and while you have to account for the emotional toll the game had on the players, I see no reason why the ‘Cats won’t come out fired up for this game. Not only is it the last game for Bates in 2019, but the 5:30 pm kickoff will surely bring a large crowd ready to cheer their team to victory. In a similar scenario last season, Bowdoin embarrassed Bates 31-14 en route to their only win of 2018; you have to think for Bates, revenge is right at the forefront of their minds. It was only one game, but Costa looked much better against the Mules and should have success against a Polar Bears’ defense that is still allowing over 40 points and 465 yards per game. Emotions will be on full display during a physical first fifteen minutes, but I trust Bates’ offense to put up around 30 points on Bowdoin’s defense, a number Bowdoin’s offense hasn’t achieved in the score column all season. The Bobcats have lost 17 consecutive games, but that streak ends with an emphatic win this Saturday night.

Picks:
RM: Bates 34, Bowdoin 17
HC: Bowdoin 24, Bates 17
MK: Bates 28, Bowdoin 14
CC: Bates 29, Bowdoin 17
SS: Bates 24, Bowdoin 17

Writers’ Pick: Bates

Trudging On: Week 7 Power Rankings

(1) 1. Middlebury

While Middlebury did not handle Bowdoin last Saturday as well as a lot of other teams have, they had a strong offensive effort and they remain the league’s only undefeated team. That is sufficient to keep them atop our rankings. The score may make the game seem closer than it was, but the Panthers were ahead 41-7 until Bowdoin put up 22 points in the fourth quarter. This may have been the fault of Middlebury’s backups, but either way the defense cannot be giving up 22 point quarters if Midd wants to go undefeated. The Panthers got it done on the ground again with 95 yards and 2 scores from RB Alex Maldjian ’23, and 53 yards with 2 more scores for QB Will Jernigan ’21. Jernigan now has seven rushing touchdowns to go along with 14 more in the air and deserves a lot of the credit for Middlebury’s success this year. Middlebury has had a few close calls, but their offense has played well enough lately to give their defense some room for error. While the title is theirs to lose, Middlebury still has to do their job and they will have their hands full this week against a Hamilton team that is having its best season in a long time.

(2) 2. Williams

The Ephs picked up a huge win in Hartford last weekend, handing Trinity their first home loss in 20 games. There are individual players to recognize for the team’s strong performance, but this was mainly a masterful coaching performance by Mark Raymond. He knew Frank Stola ’21 was going to get smothered and he did, which opened the door for Dan Vaughn ’22 to rush for 123 yards against the league’s top run defense, and for two other receivers to combine for three TD receptions. Not many teams win when their QB completes only 6 of 20 passes, but Williams has such a dominant run attack and defense that they were able to make up for this. Don’t forget that this is a team that went 0-8 in 2016-17. Defensively, Raymond again did his homework, as they attacked a reeling offensive line and sacked QB Seamus Lambert ’22 six times while holding the Bantams to a criminally low 42 rushing yards. I debated putting Williams at 1 because I think they have played better than Middlebury lately, but they still have an uphill battle for the championship. Raymond will need to win the chess match again this week as Williams pays Wesleyan a visit in a matchup of 6-1 teams.

(5) 3. Wesleyan

The Cardinals bounced back from getting smoked by Middlebury and won a double-OT battle with Amherst. Amherst won this Little Three battle last year, so it was a huge win for the Cardinals. This team should be in championship contention for the next few years because their sophomores have already given them lots of production. Ashton Scott ‘22 had one of his best games yet, tossing for 282 yards and 3 scores. Classmates Matthew Simco ’22 and Danny Banks ’22 were OPOTW and DPOTW. The Cardinals have erased many of the doubts we had about them after they breezed through the soft part of their schedule earlier in the season, but unfortunately they’ll still need Middlebury to lose to have any shot at the title. The Cardinals will have two dogfights in their next two games with Williams and Trinity, but they have proven that they can win close games. In addition, their sophomores are looking like the core of the team, which will bode very well for the coming years.

(4) 4. Amherst

Like Trinity, Amherst is a team with perennial success and high expectations that has seen this season spiral out of hand. As Cam outlined in this week’s stock report, Amherst has had their season marred by their inability to close out tight games. They have lost three games by three points, and two have gone to double overtime. Whether it be due to blown leads or turnovers, Amherst just has not been able to perform in the clutch and both their offensive and defensive units have regressed back to the middle of the pack after being extremely solid the last few seasons. They’ll need QB Ollie Eberth ’20 to be better than his 3 interceptions last week, and they’ll also need a running game to emerge quickly- Eberth cannot be the leading rusher every week. It’s clear that the loss of some of their studs from last year (Jack Hickey, Andrew Yamin) is still being felt. While it’s great to see more parity and competitiveness across the league this season, some teams have to pay the price for that, and this year those teams appear to be perennial bullies Amherst and Trinity. They host Trinity this week in what is effectively a 4th place game, and while the Bantams were not impressive last week either, it’s hard to feel good right now about the Mammoths’ chances in a tight game.

(3) 5. Trinity

Trinity continued its humbling season with its first home loss in 20 tries against Williams. Offensive line and special teams play were areas of concern, but the main issue was the coaches’ inability to adjust to what Williams was giving them. Tijani Harris ’22 is a talented back and has had a strong season, but running him off tackle out of the shotgun over and over again right into the teeth of Williams’ linebackers is not going to fool anyone. Trinity has to learn to adjust to what other teams give them and not just keep hammering the same few plays that have won them games in past seasons. Their inability to protect Seamus Lambert ’22 hurt their talented receivers’ ability to make plays. Defensively, Trinity was successful in shutting down Frank Stola ’21, but Williams was able to adjust and ride their run game to victory while taking shots downfield at the right times. Losing seasons are just not something that happens in Hartford, and that should be motivation enough for Trinity to grind out a win in one of its next two games. However, they have two tough opponents in Amherst and Wesleyan. The Bantams have the right guys on both sides of the ball to win these games, but they need to give Lambert more time to find his receivers and show a little bit more creativity in their play calling if they want to bounce back.

(7) 6. Hamilton

Just a few weeks ago, Hamilton was 2-3 and seemed destined for the 7 spot in the standings that they have gotten pretty used to with in recent years. Since then, the Continentals have taken down Amherst and Tufts and with Bates and Middlebury left on the schedule, there’s a strong chance that they’ll end up with their first winning season since 1996. This is a testament to coach David Murray. No matter the score or situation, his guys always play hard and their efforts are finally starting to pay off. If Middlebury coach Bob Ritter does not win Coach of the Year, Murray has to be the next guy in the conversation. We are finally seeing Kenny Gray ‘20 perform to his ability; last week at Tufts he completed 21 passes for 236 yards and 3 TDs. Hamilton also has two proven runners in Joe Park ’22 and David Kagan ’20. Middlebury’s defense has not been stellar lately, so the way Hamilton’s offense is playing should absolutely be a cause for concern. Given that Middlebury barely squeaked by Colby and allowed Bowdoin to go off in the fourth quarter last week, I think their game against Hamilton this week should be a tight one.

(6) 7. Tufts

It may surprise you to hear that Tufts currently leads the league in passing yards per game, thanks in large part to QB Jacob Carroll ’20. Unfortunately, their run game has not been able to match this production, which is a big reason why Tufts really has not had any impressive wins since Week 1 against Trinity. The defense shows up when it wants to- they only allowed 8 points to Trinity and shut out Bowdoin, but gave up 36 to Hamilton last week and 33 to Bates earlier this month. With talented guys on the unit like LB Greg Holt ’20 (74 total tackles this season to lead the league) and Jovan Nenadovic ’22, there’s no excuse for this type of inconsistency. At this point, I would contend that Tufts has the lowest ceiling of any non-CBB team, and I feel more confident in Hamilton’s chances when it comes to taking down Middlebury in the next two weeks.

(8) 8. Colby

Don’t let the Mules get hot! It took seven weeks, but we finally saw a Maine team break through into the win column last week as Colby got an edge in the CBB race with a thrilling win over Bates. The hosts raced out to an early 23-0 lead at halftime and appeared to have the game in command before Bates stormed back and scored a 2 point conversion to make it 23-20 early in the fourth. Colby showed a balanced offense with QB Matt Hersch ’22 completing 15 passes for 206 yards and no picks, as well as RB Devin Marrocco ’22 accounting for three scores. Defensively, Colby bent but didn’t break in the second half. LB Marcus Bullard ’21 has been a standout and is second in the league at 10.4 tackles per game. While many expected Colby to take a step forward in the win column this season, they have hung with good teams (Amherst, Middlebury) and Coach Cosgrove has not had his own recruiting classes on the field yet. Cosgrove is one of the best coaches you’ll find in the state of Maine and has proven himself at the D1 level. Combine this with a good young quarterback and the new athletic facility being built next year, and Colby should be in good shape to make progress in the next few seasons. This week, they host a disappointing Tufts team and have a good chance to set themselves up for a three-game winning streak to end the season.

(9) 9. Bates

The Bobcats came close to snapping a fat 17 game losing streak at Colby last weekend, but unfortunately their second half rally ran out of steam. The Cats have at least gotten some production from QB Brendan Costa ’21 lately; he threw for 268 yards and two TDs last weekend. It seems that Bates is trying to run an offense that does not suit their strengths, which has hindered their ability to win games…although it’s hard to tell what these strengths actually are. The Bobcats converted more than half of their first downs and won time of possession, but had their efforts marred by 10 penalties. These guys deserve a lot of credit for not giving up in unfortunate circumstances, but they’re running out of chances to prove they can compete. Like Coach Cosgrove, Bates coach Malik Hall has not had his own recruiting classes completely on the field yet so maybe it’s too early to fully evaluate him. At the same time, though, people in Lewiston can’t be happy with the lack of progress made on his watch. His seat continues to get hotter, so we’ll see if Bates can manage to dodge another winless season with a win against Bowdoin or Hamilton in their final two.

(10) 10. Bowdoin

At first glance, it looks like Bowdoin actually put up a decent fight in their game against Middlebury last weekend (47-29). However, the fact remains that they were down 41-7 at the end of the third quarter and likely had their way with Middlebury’s bench players. Sorry Bowdoin fans, but NBN is committed to unbiased reporting and we did not want to suggest that Midd’s performance was any less dominant than it was. That being said, Bowdoin’s offense was better in that fourth quarter than it was in several of their games this season. RB Nate Richam ’20 continued his strong case for All-NESCAC with 105 yards and another TD. QB Austin McCrum ’21, who has bore the brunt of our criticism for the better part of this season, actually had a solid game- 146 yards and two TDs with no picks. McCrum is a D1 transfer and has another year of eligibility, so hopefully he can turn it around next season and have more of these strong games. Luckily for Bowdoin and first-year coach BJ Hammer, they know they can compete in their next two CBB games, and despite their winless record they will have a chance to earn bragging rights within the vast state of Maine.

Close to the End: Stock Report 10/29

Stock up

Hamilton’s legitimacy

Only 5 years ago the Continentals were coming off their second straight 0-8 season. Coach Murray had just been hired and he began to turn things around. In 2015 they went 2-6 and followed that with 3 consecutive 3-win seasons, leading up until this year. Now they’re sitting at 4-3 with 2 games left to play having just rattled off back-to-back wins over Amherst and Tufts. Not exactly where we expected to see Hamilton through 7 weeks. QB Kenny Gray ’20 isn’t putting up jaw-dropping numbers, but he has done an excellent job minimizing turnovers this season. David Kagan ’20 is having himself a fine year out of the backfield, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and leading the team with 7 rushing touchdowns. Defense has often been the issue in the past and they haven’t been great this year, but they’ve done just enough to give the offense a chance to win the game. Their last two games are against Middlebury and Bates so at the very least it looks like this will be the first winning season for the Continentals in a long time. Perhaps their momentum will be enough to play the spoiler at Midd this weekend…

Wesleyan WR Matthew Simco ’22

Simco played a little as a freshman, but he has really broken onto the scene as a sophomore in 2019. He started to get consistent touches early in the year and it appears that his connection with classmate Ashton Scott ’22 is getting stronger by the second. In their two biggest wins of the season over Amherst and Tufts, Simco caught 13 passes for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns, providing a much-needed spark for the offense at times. He’s now the league’s 5^th leading receiver yardage wise and he’s tied for 2^nd in the conference in touchdown receptions. I’d call that a pretty good All-NESCAC case at this point in the year. The Cardinals still have to play likely the two top defenses in the league in Williams and Trinity, so we’ll have to keep an eye on Simco’s progress when he matches up with the league’s best.

Williams’ game planning

This is really just meant to be praising the Williams coaching staff. Coach Raymond has truly done an excellent job putting this program back on track. It feels like every week the Ephs are the most prepared with schemes and the more disciplined team. Raymond is trying to turn himself into the NESCAC version of Bill Belichick* – tailoring the game plan every week to isolate and attack their opponents’ weaknesses as opposed to identifying his team’s strength and focusing on that. They’ve had a game this year where Maimaron has thrown for 290 yards on 38 pass attempts and they’ve also had a game where Maimaron has only completed 4 passes for 90 yards. Both times they won. Although they might not get the league crown this season, it’s starting to feel like a Williams dynasty is brewing. Coach Raymond appears to be earning the title of league’s best coach and if he can continue to recruit like he has then it’s hard to envision the Ephs slowing down any time soon.

*Sorry Wesleyan fans, I know this one hurts a little bit.

Stock down

Amherst’s ability to finish games

You had to see this one coming. The Mammoths have now lost 3 games this year and it might not be fair to say that they should have won all 3 but they certainly should have won 1 or 2. Of their 3 losses, 2 came in double overtime and in the other they blew an 11-point lead with 8 minutes left. That’s not what you want to see. The defense is certainly at fault too, but one of the biggest reasons behind Amherst’s late struggles has been the sloppy play of QB Ollie Eberth ’20. In both the Middlebury and Wesleyan games, Eberth threw costly interceptions in overtime that led to defeats for the Mammoths. In the Hamilton game the offense didn’t score a single point in the final 26 minutes and they watched their lead slip away. There are obviously a lot of factors that go into losing close games and often times they can be results of a fluke. When it happens 3 times in one year you have to start to wonder what kinds of decisions the coaches are making down the stretch. They’ll give it another shot this weekend when they host Trinity.

Tufts

It really has been a strange year for the Jumbos. They opened the year on one of their biggest victories in recent program memory over Trinity, then proceeded to get smacked by Williams, lost to Amherst, struggled against Bates, lost to Wesleyan in a tight game, took Bowdoin to town, then got waxed by Hamilton this past weekend. They’ve been a tricky team to get a read on, but losing to the Continentals is a bad sign. Tufts has recently found themselves in the middle of the league – ahead of the Maine schools and Hamilton and then typically snagging a win against one or two other teams as well. This year it seemed like that would be the case again when they opened with a win against the Bantams, but now that they have just two games left against Colby and Middlebury there’s a very real chance that the Jumbos finish below .500 in 2019. At the same time this streaky team could easily end the season on a high note, picking up the pieces of a relatively broken year.

Now We Go: Weekend Preview 10/26

This has been one the most bizarre NESCAC football seasons we’ve had in a while. Realistically, Middlebury iced the league with its win at Amherst in Week 4, and the last two weeks have been an absolute snooze fest. We have had Week 7 circled on our calendars all season and all offseason, and now we have arrived here, and these games have almost no championship implications. But because of the nature of the games—the Little 3 and CBB kicking off, while Trinity takes on Williams, there is still a ton of on field action to get excited about.

Bates (0-6) @ Colby (0-6), Waterville, Maine, 1:00 PM

The collective state of Maine will finally put one in the win column this week as two of its three winless teams face off in Waterville on Saturday. It is very exciting that both of these teams finally have a chance to really compete, and the CBB is a great point of pride amongst these three schools. Realistically, this game is probably the CBB championship as Colby and Bates both seem to be about a step higher than Bowdoin, but obviously anything is possible. While Colby and Bowdoin is considered the biggest rivalry of the three, this game will carry a little extra weight as Colby’s victory over Bates last year ended the Bobcats’ CBB streak at 4 and gave Colby its first since 2005.

This game is all about Colby QB Matt Hersch ’22. Hersch, last season’s co-ROY, should be the best player on the field, but he hasn’t taken quite the jump that most were hoping for—just 5 passing TDs and 7 INTs, while throwing for 207 yards a game, 5^th in the conference. Bates is last in the league in allowing 247 passing yards a game, so this will be Hersch’s best chance to put up some numbers and give his team their best chance to win a game. But the Bobcats have talent too—an offense that is trending in the right direction after surprisingly putting up a season high of 388 yards of total offense against a top notch Williams defense on the road. QB Brendan Costa ’21 threw for a career high 241 yards while making some plays on his feet. I had the chance to see this team play in person* and was very surprised by the talent their offense possesses—it is the depth that hurts them. This game should be neck and neck.

*Editor’s note: I took the liberty of finding the article from last year when then-NbN editor Colby Morris made a similar comment after the Bobcats’ visit to Middlebury. Clearly the talent is there with Costa, but consistency is the key.

Picks:
RM: Colby 24, Bates 20
HC: Colby 28, Bates 14
SS: Colby 28, Bates 20
CC: Bates 26, Colby 20
MK: Bates 28, Colby 24

Writers’ Pick: Colby

Middlebury (6-0) @ Bowdoin (0-6), 1:00 PM, Brunswick, Maine

The only snooze fest in an otherwise great slate of games will pit the league’s best vs. the league’s worst. Middlebury is coming off arguably their best performance of the year, a statement win against their only true remaining challenger in Wesleyan, 45-21. QB Will Jernigan ’21 seems like he is improving by the week, a scary thought for the rest of the league who is hoping to see them lose 2 out of their last 3. NESCAC fans should remember Bowdoin RB Nate Richam-Odoi ’20 running for a whopping 288 yards against this team last year in a game that the Polar Bears led at the start of the 4^th quarter, before surrendering the final 14 points and losing 37-24. Unfortunately for Bowdoin, this isn’t the same Middlebury team—now rejuvenated by a new QB, new RB, and significantly improved defense. If Middlebury is going to drop a game or two, it certainly shouldn’t be this one.

Picks:
RM: Middlebury 34, Bowdoin 10
HC: Middlebury 41, Bowdoin 14
SS: Middlebury 35, Bowdoin 3
CC: Middlebury 42, Bowdoin 10
MK: Middlebury 38, Bowdoin 7

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Wesleyan (5-1) @ Amherst (4-2), 1:00 PM, Amherst, MA

The Little 3 opens up in Amherst this week between two teams who all of a sudden find themselves up against the ropes after both suffering the worst losses of their seasons last week. For Wesleyan it was obviously their only loss of the season but despite the fact that they were obvious underdogs, it was the way they were trounced by Middlebury that really gave some cause for concern. Will Jernigan ’21 and the Panthers carved up Wesleyan’s defense to the tune of 529 yards, allowing big play after big play after big play. For Wesleyan, QB Ashton Scott ’22 didn’t necessarily fail the first test of his career, but he didn’t pass it either—16-31 for 261 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, mostly yards accrued at the end of the game while Midd was content to keep everything in front of them. He and this defense will need to step it up against Amherst.

For Amherst, oof. The Mammoths suffered just their second ever loss to the Hamilton Continentals on a last second Hamilton FG by K Sam Thoreen ’22, a game in which they allowed 14 points in the last 4 minutes, and 11 of those in the final minute. All sorts of mistakes combined to give Hamilton this game from Amherst—bad turnovers, questionable timeout usage, and the nail in the coffin: a blocked punt that gave Hamilton the ball on the AMH 27 with 29 seconds remaining. I think Amherst is better than Wesleyan, but this game will be decided almost entirely mentally. Which team is able to erase last week’s loss and move ahead towards taking the decisive first game in the Little Three.

Picks:
RM: Amherst 28, Wesleyan 17
HC: Amherst 27, Wesleyan 17
SS: Amherst 28, Wesleyan 24
CC: Amherst 27, Wesleyan 21
MK: Amherst 31, Wesleyan 13

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Hamilton (3-3) @ Tufts (3-3), 1:00 PM, Medford, MA

A huge game for two teams still hoping to end the season with winning records. Both teams end the season with Middlebury and either Bates or Colby, so this game looks to be the difference between 4-5 and 5-4. Both teams come into this game riding high. For Tufts, it was an ungodly 662 yards of total offense in a 49-0 against Bowdoin. Yes, I know it’s Bowdoin but 662 yards is 662 yards. QB Jacob Carroll ’20 seems to have really begun to settle in as a passer, now up to 3^rd in the conference with 235 yards per game, and it is showing with his blossoming group of receivers—OJ Armstrong ’21, Frank Roche ’20, and Brendan Dolan ’21 have all continued to put up numbers as the year has gone on.

For Hamilton, as we just touched upon, it was a historic win over Amherst, just their 2^nd ever and first since 1992. They have a real chance to end the season with a winning record for the first time since 1996, when they went 5-3. It feels like they are on the cusp of taking the jump into the next echelon of talent in the league. But it just doesn’t feel like we know what team to expect on a week to week basis for the Conts, who were gifted the game by Amherst—outgained 488-326, lost TOP 32:57-26:59. We will find out on Saturday if it was enough momentum to cover over some misleading results.

Picks:
RM: Tufts 27, Hamilton 24
HC: Tufts 27, Hamilton 24
SS: Tufts 17, Hamilton 14
CC: Tufts 31, Hamilton 24
MK: Tufts 28, Hamilton 21

Writers’ Pick: Tufts

Williams (5-1) @ Trinity (4-2), 1:30 PM, Hartford, CT

The two league leaders in total offense, total defense, scoring offense, and scoring defense will face off in Week 7 in a game with almost no championship implications. Yup, you read that right. You could very well make the case that these are our two best teams in the league, a case that Haven laid out quite well in his GOTW preview. This game really is a toss-up—they have both played the same 6 teams, so the stats tell the same story. Williams has the best run offense; Trinity has the best run defense. Trinity has the best scoring offense; Williams has the best scoring defense. A true coin flip. A game like this is going to come down to who makes the most plays and who makes the least mistakes. When it comes to playmakers, they are littered all over the field. Williams’ rushing trio of QB Bobby Maimaron ’21, RB Dan Vaughn ’22, and RB Joel Nicholas ’23 occupy the three best yards per carry in the league, all over 6.5 YPC. At WR, you have OPOY frontrunner WR Frank Stola ’21 and his league leading 125 yards per game and 12 touchdowns going up against the dynamic trio of Girard, Schofer, and Reid, all of whom are inside the top 10 in receiving yards as well, while Reid, Stola, and Girard are 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th respectively in yards per catch.

When it comes to making the fewest mistakes, you have to give the edge to Williams, especially in the QB department. Trinity QB Seamus Lambert ’22 might have the best arm in the league (1^st in yards per game) but he is tied for 2^nd with 7 INTs, while Eph signal caller Bobby Maimaron ’21 is impressively tied for 11^th with 2 INTs, in a 10-team league. I’ll leave the rest of the details to Haven, but this game has all the makings of being the true game of the year—I don’t think you’ll see a better product of football on any field all season in the NESCAC. Williams has a few more injuries, and of course, this game is in Hartford, where the Ephs have not won since 2001. In Williamstown or even a neutral side, I think this game belongs to the Ephs, but on the road, it’s anybody’s call.

Picks:
RM: Williams 34-31
HC: Trinity 31-27
SS: Trinity 24-17
CC: Trinity 24-21
MK: Trinity 24-20 (author’s note: I hate this pick)

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

That’s All She Wrote: Stock Report 10/23

Stock Up

Middlebury winning the NESCAC Championship

Well, that about does it for the NESCAC Championship race after the Panthers pummeled the Cardinals last weekend by a tune of 45-21. Will Jernigan ‘21 surprised just about everyone with his success through the air, completing 18 of his 25 passing attempts for a career-high 359 yards and four scores. The defense harassed Ashton Scott ‘22 all afternoon and did not allow him to generate anything on the ground (12 rushes for -16 yards). The win pushed Middlebury’s record to a perfect 6-0, and closed the magic number needed to secure the NESCAC Championship to just two games. Middlebury would have to trip up against both Hamilton and Tufts (sorry Bowdoin, I’m already penciling that contest as a win for the Panthers) in order to allow Williams and Wesleyan back into the picture.

Hamilton and Kicker Sam Thoreen ‘22

For all the negativity surrounding NESCAC kickers for their lack of accuracy in recent weeks, major props to Hamilton’s Sam Thoreen. The sophomore nailed not one, but two field goals of 40+ yards. With his team trailing by eleven with roughly four minutes remaining, Thoreen sunk a 44 yarder, the longest kick converted by a NESCAC kicker all year long. More importantly, the kick made it a one possession game. After a wild series of events that allowed the Continentals the opportunity to win the game (more details to come below in the report), Thoreen kept his composure and banged home a 40 yarder en route to Hamilton’s biggest win of the season. He’s quietly been the most accurate kicker in the NESCAC (the only one who has not missed a single field goal) and is second in terms of total points. The Continentals’ gutsy come-from-behind win against Amherst was something sort of like Illinois’ upset of Wisconsin; a traditional power (on the road) failing to close the game against a bottom-tier league opponent. Both games also ended on a game-winning field goal…coincidence? I think not.

Stock Down

Wesleyan and the Potential for Chaos

Like most people that follow NESCAC football, I would have loved to see Wesleyan knock off Middlebury. Even at 6-0, I still believe the Panthers are not the best team in the league and have been extremely fortuitous in some of their victories. In the overall picture, however, a win from the Cardinals would have blown the league wide open. I hate to say it, but Saturday’s performance showed everyone that the Cardinals were undefeated because of their weak schedule leading up to the showdown with the Panthers.

Hypothetically, let’s say Wesleyan was still undefeated after defeating Middlebury. For the Cardinals, they would most likely have had to win out in order to ensure a NESCAC Championship. But the more likely scenario stemming from an undefeated Wesleyan team would be that they suffer a loss (or two) to Williams, Trinity and/or Amherst; this would open the door for multiple teams to grapple for the top spot. Instead, the Cardinals are currently tied with the Ephs at one loss to the Panthers apiece, and both teams have to pray the Panthers trip up twice. For Amherst, their dream was crushed upon losing to Hamilton, and Trinity would need Middlebury to lose all three of their remaining games in order to have the smallest chance. Unfortunately it looks like the league championship is wrapped up.

Amherst

The likelihood of the Amherst winning the NESCAC Championship was slim after Middlebury’s victory, but the loss to Hamilton ended those hopes completely. The loss itself isn’t as strong of an indictment on this team as one would assume based on their respective records, but it was the manner in which Amherst failed to convert a single opportunity to close the game out. After holding Hamilton to a field goal that saw their lead get cut to eight with 3:59 remaining, Ollie Eberth ‘20 and the offense failed to accumulate a single first down and the Mammoths were forced to punt. The special teams unit failed to corral Continentals’ returner Sam Robinson ‘20, giving the home team great field position inside the Mammoths’ 25 yard line with 2:43 remaining. Twice the Mammoths forced a third down scenario during that drive, and twice the Continentals converted. After David Kagan’s three yard scamper, the offense stayed on the field in order to tie the game on a two point attempt; in the midst of a broken play, Kenny Gray ‘20 found Christian Donahoe ‘20 in the end zone, knotting the game at 28 apiece. One would think that a veteran quarterback would be able to lead his team down the field against what was (and still is) a below-average defensive unit. Instead, Eberth and the offense did not pass the sticks. To make matters worse, the special teams unit let down the team again, this time in the form of a blocked punt. All in all, it was a tough week for the Mammoths, and one that might have cost them a shot at a NESCAC Championship.

All Eyes on the Championship Game?: Weekend Preview 10/19

We’ve officially surpassed the halfway point in the 2019 season, and yet unfortunately the league championship might come down to Middlebury and Wesleyan on Saturday. A Middlebury win will all but seal the deal in their quest to become NESCAC Champions, while Wesleyan still doesn’t believe it is getting the recognition it deserves for being the only other undefeated team in the conference. The rest of the slate features traditional powers facing inferior opponents, but taking those matchups for granted might eliminate some of the one-loss contenders who are praying for the Cardinals to upset the Panthers.

Bates (0-5) @ Williams (4-1), 1pm, Williamstown, MA

Fellow NbN writer Haven Cutko ripped apart the Bobcats in this week’s Power Rankings, and while you hate to hear your school being repeatedly badgered for its underwhelming performances on the gridiron, I absolutely agreed with him. It’s one thing to play competitive games and lose, but Bates was annihilated 51-0 by a Trinity team that by all accounts has been a massive disappointment this season. Without a doubt, Trinity could have scored 60+ given that they were already ahead 51-0 at the end of the fourth quarter. The offense is completely stagnant with no identity whatsoever; the ‘Cats are dead last in total offense (225 ypg) and feature a passing “attack” that is limited to quick slants and bubble screens. The running game hasn’t been terrible, but against the Bantams, the Bobcats had 26 rushing attempts for…28 yards. All this adds up to an offense that is averaging a touch over 10 ppg, and desperately needs someone to step up. The defense (allowing close to 35 ppg) is feast or famine; it either forces a turnover (5th in the ‘CAC with 8 combined turnovers) or gives up a touchdown. What’s worse is that the defensive line is last in sack production, which correlates to Bates having (by far) the worst pass defense because opposing quarterbacks have all day to throw.

Bobby Maimaron ‘21 may not be the most prolific passer, but boy does he only need one man to throw to: Frank Stola ‘21. I mentioned a few weeks ago that Stola could very well break multiple single-season records with his performances to date, but the junior has a legitimate case to go down as the greatest wide receiver the league has ever witnessed. With four games remaining this season, Stola is 437 yards away from breaking the record of most receiving yards in a single season, and three touchdowns away from tying the single-season record. Given that he’s averaging 147 ypg and three touchdowns/game, the only thing that will stop Stola and company from wreaking havoc on the Bobcats’ poor secondary is when Coach Raymond pulls his starters midway through the third period with the game so out of hand. I really want to believe in Brendan Costa’s elusiveness and his ability to create something out of nothing, but he just doesn’t have the arm strength for the vertical passing game that I’m sure Coach Hall would love to have. Chalk up another 100+ yard performance for Stola with a couple of touchdowns as the Ephs come out firing from the get-go and cruise to an easy win.

SS: Williams 42, Bates 7
HC: Williams 34, Bates 6
MK: Williams 35, Bates 0
CC: Williams 41, Bates 13
RM: Williams 42, Bates 7

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Bowdoin (0-5) @ Tufts (2-3), 1pm, Medford, MA

The Polar Bears may be winless in large part to their atrocious defensive unit (other than their eye-opening performance against Wesleyan) but they’ve shown improvements in their running game. Specifically, Nate Richam-Odoi ‘20 registered his third consecutive 100-yard performance this past Saturday against Amherst; the senior is averaging 5.75 yards per carry over his past three contests, which is good news considering Bowdoin will need their star running back to perform exceptionally against Tufts if they want to spring the upset. The problem with this is that along with the defense, the quarterback position is an absolute mess in Brunswick. After a brutal 2018 season in which he threw just eight touchdowns and 17 interceptions, Austin McCrum ‘21 has shown very little (if any) signs of improvement. He’s only registered two passing touchdowns through their first four games, and after failing to generate any points in the opening quarter against Amherst, McCrum was benched in lue of fellow junior Matthew Marcantano ‘21. Marcantano was not afraid to air it out, but he was careless with the football (two INT’s) and completed just 11 of his 27 passing attempts.

Whoever Coach Hammer rolls out to start on Saturday will face a Tufts team that is coming off an emotional loss against Wesleyan. Behind a fired-up defense that continuously frustrated Ashton Scott ‘22 and the Cardinals’ offense, the Jumbos took a 10-7 into the fourth quarter. The Cardinals simply had more left in the tank, scoring on three of their four possessions and capped off by a six yard touchdown with six seconds left on the game clock. As valiant of a performance the Jumbos displayed this past Saturday, this is a prime letdown spot for about as inconsistent of a team as there is in the NESCAC this season. They’ve yet to have a game in which both the offense and defense play a complete 60 minutes; against the likes of Trinity and Wesleyan, the Jumbos defense swarmed all over the field, and yet the offense was stuck in the mud. Against Bates, the offense roared out to a sizeable lead, but the defense almost allowed Bates to come from behind and steal a win. Luckily for Tufts, they won’t need a complete performance to beat Bowdoin, but don’t be surprised if this game is closer than the experts think.

SS: Tufts 28, Bowdoin 13
HC: Tufts 24, Bowdoin 14
MK: Tufts 30, Bowdoin 14
CC: Tufts 34, Bowdoin 14
RM: Tufts 34, Bowdoin 21

Writers’ Pick: Tufts

Colby (0-5) @ Trinity (3-2), 1pm, Hartford, CT

There’s no way to sugarcoat it; Colby should have absolutely beaten Middlebury. It was by far the worst performance the Panthers exhibited all season and it was almost as if they were basically handing the Mules the game, except the Mainers didn’t want it. I’m sure kicker Moises Celaya ‘22 was up all night thinking about how two missed extra points and a missed 32 yard field goal with 22 seconds left cost the Mules their upset bid. Nonetheless, Colby showed improvements on both sides of the ball; signal caller Matt Hersch ‘22 did not have the greatest completion percentage, but he was able to toss a season-high three touchdowns with no interceptions against a very strong secondary. The defense, while allowing Will Jernigan ‘21 to run for 153 yards and three scores of his own, made life miserable in the passing department. Jernigan was held to just 12 completions on 30 attempts, good for a paltry 40%.

The Bantams marched into Lewiston and put an absolutely whooping on the Bobcats. Seamus Lambert ‘22 tossed for four scores to add to his league-leading 13 touchdown passes, and emerging running back Tijani Harris ‘22 ran for 139 yards and a score of his own. Despite playing in only two games, Harris has surpassed the century mark in both contests and must be viewed as a legitimate weapon on this team. The defense pitched a shutout, although I am more inclined to think that the final score says more about the lack of Bates offense rather than the dominance of the Trinity defense. They did force two turnovers, which was as many as the unit had in their previous four games combined; however, they failed to generate any pressure on the Bates quarterbacks, totaling zero sacks. Given that Trinity has defeated Bates and Bowdoin by a combined score of 112-7, I don’t think the Mules will fair much better come Saturday. I think Trinity keeps the train rolling en route to their third consecutive win, while the Mules continue to lament on what could have been if they had taken down the Panthers last weekend.

SS: Trinity 38, Colby 14
HC: Trinity 45, Colby 14
MK: Trinity 56, Colby 10
CC: Trinity 42, Colby 7
RM: Trinity 48, Colby 10

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Amherst (4-1) @ Hamilton (2-3), 1pm, Hamilton, NY

Despite being out-snapped 75-55 by the Polar Bears, the Mammoths glided to a comfortable 36-14 win that saw their defense keep the opposition off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter. Manni Malone ‘22 was impossible to defend, totaling four quarterback hits and a strip sack that resulted in his first touchdown on the season. All in all, Amherst had nine quarterback hits, and the relentless pressure that the front seven brings will force quarterbacks to become jittery in the pocket and lead to errant throws. Ollie Eberth ‘20 had a great performance, completing 71% of his passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Not to get lost in the shuffle of great wide receivers, James O’Regan ‘20 is quietly sitting second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. He’ll be ready to torch a secondary that just last week allowed Frank Stola to abuse them all afternoon.

For the Continentals, their success is predicated on their offensive production. In their two wins against Colby and Bowdoin, Hamilton combined for 82 points; even in their loss to Trinity, they scored a respectable 24 points and gave their defense a chance to win. In their two losses, however, Kenny Gray ‘20 and the rest of the unit failed to eclipse 10 points, and the aforementioned quarterback had four combined interceptions. What’s more is that Amherst has the third-best run defense in the ‘CAC, which means tough sledding out there for David Kagan ‘20. If the Continentals wish to defeat the Mammoths, their defense will have to make this a grind and keep them out of the end zone. I actually think this one will be close, as Amherst doesn’t boast a prolific offense nor is it explosive. In the end, however, Amherst’s season is essentially over with a loss, and they still have hope that Wesleyan can usurp Middlebury and make the title race a bit more wide open. The Mammoths sneak out a win, and although both offenses will struggle early, O’Regan will prove to be the difference maker.

SS: Amherst 28, Hamilton 17
HC: Amherst 31, Hamilton 17
MK: Amherst 28, Hamilton 10
CC: Amherst 31, Hamilton 20
RM: Amherst 27, Hamilton 21

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Wesleyan @ Middlebury, 1pm, Middlebury, VT

This is our game of the week so I’ll keep it short. Everyone knows that if Middlebury beats Wesleyan on Saturday, the Championship is basically theirs. With remaining games against Bowdoin, Hamilton and Tufts, Middlebury would have to lose two of those three in order to fall out of the top spot. Wesleyan knows that the road ahead is extremely tough even if they end up beating Midd, but a win would shake up the entire conference, something that all of us (including me) wants to see. I really want to take the Cardinals, but after struggling with Jumbos I just don’t think they have the talent to compete for 60 minutes with the upper echelon NESCAC schools. Combined with the wake up call the Panthers received in their scare against Colby, I feel like it’s more likely the home team makes a statement Saturday afternoon. If the Cardinals do pull off the shocker, however, it will be because their defense stymies the Panthers’ ground game and forces Jernigan to throw the ball way more than he would like to.

SS: Middlebury 28, Wesleyan 21
HC: Middlebury 21, Wesleyan 17
MK: Middlebury 24, Wesleyan 17
CC: Middlebury 27, Wesleyan 24
RM: Middlebury 27, Wesleyan 13

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Everything on the Line: Middlebury vs. Wesleyan Game of the Week Preview

Heading into the weekend, there are two undefeated teams remaining in the NESCAC this year. But that number will be reduced to just one after 5-0 Wesleyan takes on 5-0 Middlebury in Vermont this Saturday. For Wesleyan, a win keeps their undefeated season alive, and moves them into first place in the league, but they will be far from the favorites with Williams, Amherst, and Trinity looming in their final three games. For Middlebury, a win takes your chances of winning the league from like 95% to 99%. They would have to lose two out of three to Hamilton, Bowdoin, and Tufts. A loss would mean they no longer controlled their own destiny, but they would certainly still be title favorites. Regardless, there is a lot to be decided once the ball is kicked off.

Key #1 for Middlebury: Get Healthy

In Middlebury’s narrow escape of Colby last week, they were without First Team TE Frank Cosolito ’20, Second Team OL Kevin Woodring ’20, and lost top rusher and ROY frontrunner RB Alex Maldjian ’23 early in the game to a lower body injury. Needless to say, these three are huge pieces for the Panther offense—the best TE in the league, their most experienced lineman, and the man who has been arguably the best running back in the league this year as well. I’m told Cosolito and Maldjian are good to go for Saturday, with no word on Woodring. As is, this offense is not overwhelmingly talented—they are going to need their best players at as close to 100% as possible.

Key #2 for Middlebury: Win the Turnover Battle

It’s hard to believe that despite being 5-0, Middlebury has won the turnover battle in just 1 of their first 5 games—when they picked off Seamus Lambert 4 times in their win over Trinity. They are a -2 on the year in turnover margin—throwing 6 interceptions and fumbling 7 times, while intercepting 9 passes and recovering 2 fumbles. Jernigan alone has fumbled 7 times and lost 5 of them, an issue that could be further exacerbated if Maldjian is unable to shoulder the rushing load. To continue to lose the turnover battle and beat the teams they’ve beat is almost impossible and at some point, you have to wonder if it will catch up to them. Wesleyan, on the other hand, has dominated turnover margin, a league leading +9, in addition to a league leading 16 sacks, this defense creates havoc all over the field. Middlebury has the talent advantage in this game but it’s not great enough that they can continue to give the other team extra possessions.

Key #1 for Wesleyan: Get Ahead Early

Against the perceived favorite and on the road, this is absolutely crucial. This has been the blueprint against Middlebury all year, it just hasn’t come much to fruition, clearly. Colby gave it the best bid last week when they went up 13-0, but Middlebury responded with 27 unanswered points. Will Jernigan ’21 has greatly improved as a passer, but he is still at his best when he has his full menu of options available—being put in situations where he can run or pass. He will not be able to beat Wesleyan with his arm, they have too many playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. For Wesleyan, they did a poor job of this last week, allowing Tufts to score the only 10 points of the first half before waking up at halftime. They will not have that same luxury against Middlebury. If the Cardinals can score first and hold any sort of a lead for the first half, Middlebury will not be able to run the ball nearly as much as they would like. On the flip side, if Midd strikes first and is able to control the game, it will spell trouble for Wesleyan.

Key #2 for Wesleyan: Let Ashton Scott Loose

Wesleyan’s sophomore standout QB has been reflective of their team as a whole so far through these first five weeks—he’s performed incredibly well, as has his team, but there is still so much we don’t know about him/them due to their weak schedule. Scott is 2^nd in the league in completion percentage at 62.9%, tied for 1^st with 13 passing TDs, and 3^rd in the league in yards per attempt with 8.0, while also being tied for 1^st with just 2 interceptions. He has shown the ability to make plays with his feet as well, 10^th in the league with 50.2 rushing yards per game, which is tied for 3^rd amongst all QBs. The coaching staff has been careful not to ask him to do too much as they have wisely and effectively allowed him to grow into his role, but at this point in the season, he is his team’s most talented offensive player. They have to take the training wheels off and let him win, or lose, this game.

Everything Else:

This is such a fascinating game for so many reasons. Stylistically, we’ve already highlighted how the turnovers could cause serious problems for Middlebury, but also how they keep winning in spite of them. Wesleyan will come into this game probably has confident as they have been all year, following an under the lights thriller in their first real test of the season against Tufts, won on a 29-yard connection between Scott and WR Matthew Simco ’22 with just 6 seconds left. Middlebury knows they dodged a serious bullet last week between a blocked PAT that would have tied the game with 7 minutes left, and obviously what would have been the game winning FG from 37 yards with 20 seconds left. This could be, in the long run, the best thing to have happened to Middlebury—a wake-up call. Will we see them come out more motivated to correct their mistakes from last week, or will another poor performance build on itself? When it comes to picking a winner, there are so many unknowns, but I know more about this Middlebury team than I do about Wesleyan. No one has won more big games than Will Jernigan this year. Every single week he and this team find a way, and I think they will find a way again.

Prediction: Middlebury 24, Wesleyan 17