Category: Trinity

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #8 Colby at #1 Trinity

Trinity is ready to protect its house this season, something it failed to do a year ago. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Trinity is ready to protect its house this season, something it failed to do a year ago. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Trinity comes into Saturday’s matchup undefeated in February, winning all four of their conference games by 10 or more points, while Colby is coming off a three-game winning streak. Despite being the top seed, this by no means will be an easy win for Trinity. This is a rematch from last year’s quarterfinal, which proved to be a challenge for Trinity as they scraped by with a 66-63 victory.

Last time they played: Trinity 62 – Colby 60

Colby hosted Trinity on January 22, when they blundered and handed the Bantams their 13th win in a 62-60 final. This came one night after the Mules upset No. 16 Amherst 66-64. This game stayed nick and tuck all the way through, the lead trading nearly 20 times. Trinity’s Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 each earned a double-double accounting for 24 points and 21 rebounds. Colby’s Sam Willson ’16 and Patrick Stewart ’16 each had 17 points and five boards. The Mules were outrebounded by a margin of 39-33; this is a result of Colby’s lack of size, which also led to Trinity’s four blocks and Colby’s one. Colby did have some points to build on, as they were efficient with turnovers and personal fouls, turning it over eight times to Trinity’s 12 TO’s and registering 10 fouls as opposed to Trinity’s 15. Off the bench, Eric Gendron ’18 got hot, scoring 16 points on 50 percent shooting. Chris Turnbull ’17 also racked up 25 minutes, five boards and six points coming off the bench, which speaks to the depth of Trinity, whose bench contributed 83 minutes to Colby’s 63 minutes. Colby has some scorers, particularly in Chris Hudnut ’16, Ryan Jann ’16 and Stewart, but Jann was virtually nonexistent in this game, going 0-7 from the field, cracking his goose egg from the free throw line with 1:41 left to go in the game. While giving credit to the Bantam defense, this was a fluke performance from Jann, and he will certainly have a bigger impact on Saturday.

Trinity X-factor: Power Forward Shay Ajayi ’16

Earning a double-double in the past two matchups against Colby, Ajayi led his team to two important victories, the more important of the two coming 364 days ago in the quarterfinal at Trinity. He is one of Trinity’s senior leaders, and knows better than anyone how to perform in this situation. Besides feeling comfortable with the home-court advantage and success against Colby, Ajayi comes into this game with the hot hand shooting 57 percent from the field in February, breaking his season high in points twice; first with 26 points against Tufts, then with 29 points against Hamilton. Expect him to haul in a ton of boards and be effective from the field as the Bantams look to roll through to the semifinal.

Colby X-factor: Center Chris Hudnut ’16

Hudnut played tattered for their meeting in January, so his presence was undermined coming off the bench and accounting for eight points in 13 minutes. At 6’8″, he has the ability to rebound the ball, and is coming off a double-double against Wesleyan where he scored 19 points and had 15 rebounds. Hudnut was not on the playoff roster last year, but he has been an essential piece to the puzzle throughout his career. A healthy Hudnut may have spoiled the Bantams from attaining another #1 seed this season, but that is neither here nor there. With Hudnut in the lineup Saturday, this game becomes a lot closer and screams upset. He will help patch up the Mules hole of rebounding margin, while adding a serious offensive threat as he is 7th in the league in scoring.

Three Questions

  1. Can Ed Ogundeko shut down Chris Hudnut ?

Chris Hudnut can shoot the basketball, and he is crafty and smooth down low with a nice hook. Hudnut, playing hurt, scored eight points in just 13 minutes in their last meeting. Ogundeko will compete with Hudnut, who is bound to make some magic happen. On his home floor, Ogundeko will challenge him with his brute strength and athletic ability. If Hudnut gets a ton of buckets, Ogundeko will make up for it on the boards. It will be a real battle down low on Saturday and expect Ogundeko to rise to the occasion. Ogundeko is at the top of his game right now, while Hudnut is coming off an injury.

  1. Who will show up? Colby’s shooters or Trinity’s defense?

Colby ranks first in the NESCAC in field goal percentage and third in scoring offense, boasting three of the league’s top 17 scorers. Of the starting five, each has gotten hot in the past three games scoring at least 19 points. While this is all important in winning a basketball game, they are taking on Trinity who has the best defense in the league. They rank second in scoring defense and field goal percentage defense and first in rebounding margin. I’ll say it time and time again, DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS. The Bantams depth will keep fresher legs in the game, and the defense will be breathing down Colby’s neck the whole game.

  1. How will Trinity match Colby’s offense?

Colby’s offense clearly has a lot of threats, and if they do show up Saturday, Trinity will need to put up some points of their own. Trinity’s defense will surely limit Colby’s scoring, and they will be looking for offensive support from Jaquann Starks ’16 and Eric Gendron. Ajayi and Ogundeko will need to make their contributions as well. With the help of a healthy Chris Hudnut, it will be that much harder for the Bantams to get points in the paint.

What to Expect

Expect a battle. These two teams have met twice in the past year, and both games have been nail biters. Trinity has gotten the upper-hand each time, but the game changes when you add a healthy, beast of a center. Both teams are going to look really good, and Colby will look more like a top tier team than an eighth-seeded team. With Hudnut filling the center position, it will take away from the effectiveness of Ogundeko, who has been a substantial player all season. Hudnut has the potential to bully Ogundeko with his height, but don’t be surprised if Ogundeko pushes right back.

Trinity held Colby to a 36.4 percent field goal percentage, a far cry from Colby’s 46.8 percentage on the season. With Jann being ice cold in that game and Hudnut banged up, it will be a different Mules team that comes into Hartford on Saturday. Trinity was fortunate to beat Colby in NESCAC play this season, so they will need to be in top form to move on to the semifinal. Stewart will do his best to get in Trinity’s way as he is the best three point shooter in the ‘CAC. Trinity will be ready to fire back with the third- and fourth-best three point shooters in the league, by percentage, in point guard Andrew Hurd ’16 and Gendron.

Trinity coach James Cosgrove and Colby coach Damien Strahorn will have an amplified role in this game as it will likely be tight to the finish. Adjustments are going to be huge, especially for the Bantams who will be facing a much different Colby team than they saw in January. Though Colby flaunts a starting lineup of all seniors, they don’t have near the playoff experience that Trinity has.

Colby might get off to an early lead with Trinity making a push going into the half. The second half will be a back and forth battle that the Bantams get the best of.

Prediction: Trinity 78 – Colby 73

 

 

 

 

Ups and Downs in Maine: Power Ranks 2/17

Jack Simonds '19 has been hot recently, and Bowdoin is surging. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Jack Simonds ’19 has been hot recently, and Bowdoin is surging. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Some say that the playoffs are all about momentum. Who’s hot, who’s not? We can all think of teams that have ridden late season hot streaks to championships, but just as often (maybe more often) the Cinderella story meets a brick wall come playoff time. Well, if you are a believer in playoff momentum, then this is the article for you. Who’s playing their best basketball right now, and which lower seed could make some noise?

1. No. 16 Amherst (20-4, 8-2, Last week: 1)

Amherst rebounded nicely from last week’s loss to the Tufts Jumbos. The top spot was a clear two-horse race between Amherst and Trinity, and Amherst was just more consistent this weekend. They pretty easily handled Middlebury, keeping the Panthers at an arm’s length all day long, and basically did the same to Hamilton the following day. Meanwhile, the Bantams let the Conts hang around into overtime. Amherst just looks to be playing all-around good basketball right now. Their problem all year long has been inconsistency from one starter or another, but everyone played well this weekend. If the Amherst roster is playing at its best, they won’t be beat.

2. No. 25 Trinity (18-6, 9-1, Last week: 2)

Even though going to OT against Hamilton is one reason why I have the Bantams at No. 2 this week, that challenge did provide them with some much-needed high-pressure experience. On the season, Trinity has won its games by an average of 17.3 points, and only two of those have come by less than 10 points (which doesn’t include their 10-point OT win against Hamilton). I know that this was an Elite Eight team a year ago, but it’s been awhile since they’ve played in a really meaningful, tightly-contested game and pulled out the win. As is often the case in professional sports, a hard-fought win or even a loss can end up paying dividends in the playoffs.

3. No. 19 Tufts (19-5, 7-3, Last week: 5)

The 77-73 win over Williams wasn’t extremely impressive, but a win is a win and the Jumbos took care of business last weekend and during the week against Pine Manor. We know they can play with the best, because they’ve beaten Amherst, but we also know that it’s a flawed team without much depth. They’ve gotten a few big games from Stephen Haladyna ’16 recently, and Ryan Spadaford ’16 had some big games of his own earlier this year. That’s what the Jumbos need more of if they’re going to go deep in the NESCAC tournament, and possibly further. The interesting thing about the win against Williams is that these two will be running it back on Saturday, this time in Medford. The question is whether Williams can make the necessary adjustments.

4. Middlebury (14-10, 6-4, Last week: 3)

It was a tough weekend for Middlebury, but it was equally tough for Wesleyan and Williams. The difference is in the quality of opponents for each team. There’s no shame in losing to two ranked teams in Trinity and Amherst, and even though the Panthers didn’t threaten either team, they were competitive in both games. In fact, I would argue that the play of Adisa Majors ’18 recently (33 points, 14 rebounds this weekend) makes Middlebury more intimidating than ever. Don’t get it wrong, a healthy Matt Daley ’16 in addition to Majors would be best for the Panthers, but his status right now is unknown.

5. Colby (16-8, 4-6, Last week: 8)

Yes, that’s right, the Colby College Mules are No. 5 in this week’s ranks. They’re flying high after winning two games to secure a playoff bid, and they’ve been answering some of my questions about their ability to compete for a NESCAC title. It had flown under the radar, but John Gallego’s ’16 strong play had coincided with some spotty performances from Luke Westman ’16, but Westman has had his best offensive stretch of the season over the last three games, all wins. Secondly, Colby didn’t have to rely on Ryan Jann ’16 alone to score points this weekend to get the wins. Jann filled it up for 19 points against Conn College, but struggled with just five points against Wesleyan. In his stead, Westman, Chris Hudnut ’16 and sniper Pat Stewart ’16 picked up the slack. That all-around attack gives me confidence in the way they are playing. AND, maybe most impressively of all, they actually played pretty good defense last weekend, holding both of their opponents to 73 points or less and winning, something they’d only done one other time this season.

6. Bowdoin (12-10, 4-6, Last week: 10)

Hold up! Blow up the ranks! Colby and Bowdoin? Over Williams and Wesleyan? Yep, that’s right. The Polar Bears are HOT, pulling off the same feat as the Mules. The only difference for me is that Bowdoin used the same formula they have all year, relying on their two-headed monster to will them to victory. Well, the defense is going to have to ramp it up to 11 in the playoffs, and I don’t know if two weapons is enough to get by Amherst (I’m actually pretty certain it’s not). Still, I’m impressed by what they accomplished last weekend, and if they were going to play tomorrow I would take the Polar Bears over the Cardinals – who they just beat – or the Ephs.

7. Williams (15-9, 5-5, Last week: 7)

The best thing I can say about Williams this season is that they’ve been consistently just above average, winning when they should and losing when they should. The Ephs are 5-0 against Colby, Bowdoin, Hamilton, Conn College and Bates, but 0-7 against Wesleyan, Amherst, Trinity, Tufts and Middlebury. Their reliance on youth is holding them back in tight games against good opponents. They’ve had double digit turnovers in every one of their losses to NESCAC teams. How fast can their youngsters grow up? If they’re going to upset Tufts, it better happen by Saturday.

8. Wesleyan (18-6, 5-5, Last week: 4)

Really ugly weekend for the Cards who fell to Colby and Bowdoin. Maybe it was just a matter of the latter two teams having the motivation necessary to pull off the upsets and get into the tournament, but the best teams don’t play down to their competition. The three point shooting, which went through an epic cold spell midway through the year, hasn’t improved too much, which is not good because Wesleyan has taken the fifth-most three pointers this season. The key for me is the contribution that they get off the bench. Harry Rafferty ’17, Nathan Krill ’18 and Joe Edmonds ’16 are all going to get close to 20 minutes on Saturday – if they’re playing well. Wesleyan needs scoring from the two upper classmen and strong defense from Krill to stop down Daley and/or Majors.

9. Hamilton (11-13, 2-8, Last week: 9)

It’s just sad for me to write about the bottom three teams, because I hate to pile the insult onto the injury, but I have to say a few words. More than the two teams below them, Hamilton put up a fight down to the bitter end. A couple of breaks here and there, and those two OT losses and the 12-point loss to Amherst over the past three games could have gone the other way. Kudos to Hamilton for taking it to Trinity, especially, who should never have let themselves get into that situation. As we’ve said before, the Continentals are young and talented. They’ll be much higher on this list come this time next year.

10. Conn College (12-12, 3-7, Last week: 10)

While they might have been putting up more of a fight than the 11th-ranked Bobcats, Conn was still unable to pull out any victories down the stretch. They ended the year on a painful seven-game slide. The three-point loss to Williams probably stings the most because Conn was up by 12 at halftime. The Camels showed real signs of life this year, and early on I thought they could be a surprise contender for a home playoff game. Their first years were really special, Dan Janel ’17 stepped up his game in a big way, and Zuri Pavlin ’17 did what he’s always done, and he was able to defer a bit more with a couple of playmakers finally around him. Conn was not a bad team this year. They just need to learn how to win.

11. Bates (10-14, 2-8, Last week: 11)

I don’t know what happened, and I won’t even speculate. A 2015 Sweet Sixteen team, the Bobcats looked like a completely different team this year, and they crumbled down the stretch. Bates is 2-7 since Jan. 9, with one of those wins coming over the 3-21 Maine-Farmington Beavers (the other came over Hamilton). It’s sad to see the career of Mike Boornazian ’16 and his classmates end this way. We thought Boornazian was a lock for All-NESCAC laurels at the beginning of the year, but with the way the Bobcats season ended, I’m not sure that that’s still the case.

The Best NESCAC Games This Season

If this photo gives nightmates to Ephs' fans, we apologize. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
If this photo gives nightmates to Ephs’ fans, we apologize. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Unlike some other NESCAC sports (*cough* football *cough*), in men’s basketball we see teams regularly battle all the way down to the wire. This season seemed like there were even more close games than usual. In total, six conferences games went to OT this year, twice the number from last season. Many more came down to one or two plays down the stretch. There were so many good ones that I decided to go back and count down the very best. Honestly, some of the games that got left out were great in their own right.

10. January 30: Bowdoin 85 over Colby 82, Brunswick, ME.

This was the best game I saw in person this season, and I feel wrong putting it this low. After all, it did feature the reigning NESCAC Player of the Year Lucas Hausman ’16 going bucket-for-bucket down the stretch with Chris Hudnut ’16, who was unstoppable on this day. Hausman would finish with 35 and Hudnut with 32. The difference was the 20 points the Polar Bears got from point guard Jack Bors ’19. Bowdoin led by as much as nine with 6:13 left in the game, but there wasn’t ever a doubt that Colby was going to make a run late. In overtime Jack Simonds ’19 had the first six points, and Hausman scored the next seven. Colby had a chance to tie in the final seconds, but John Gallego’s ’16 shot was no good. That this game is so low tells you a lot about how many quality finishes there were.

9. January 23: Colby 64 over Amherst 62, Waterville, ME

Colby entered this game 0-4 in conference while Amherst was 4-0. With that being said, this wasn’t nearly as big an upset as two years ago when a young Colby team shocked an eventual Final Four Amherst team in Waterville. The Team from Central Mass was ice cold, shooting 33.3/26.5/52.9 for the game. Luke Westman ’16 had just two points and fouled out halfway through the second half, but John Gallego ’16 stepped up to score 13 points. The Mules also benefited from Chris Hudnut ’16 playing well while still getting back to full strength and scoring 17 points. A controversial Connor Green ’16 offensive foul call helped to seal the deal for Colby in the final minutes as Gallego hit his free throws. A last second three by Green for the win failed to land, and Colby got their first conference win.

8. February 7: Colby 99 over Hamilton 95, Clinton, NY.

The highest scoring game of the NESCAC season, this was one of many games that went to overtime under weird circumstances. Down four with under 20 seconds left, Chris Hudnut ’16 hit a three to make it a one-point game. Hamilton missed one of two free throws, and Ryan Jann ’16 got fouled on a three point attempt essentially as time expired. He hit the first two but missed the third and the game went to overtime. The Mules controlled the extra period to give themselves new life in the NESCAC playoff race.  Patrick Stewart ’16 was dripping from three point land going 6-6 from beyond the arc to lead the way with 22 points. All five Colby starters finished in double figures.

7. January 15: Middlebury 85 over Tufts 82, Middlebury, VT.

At halftime the score was 40-40, and at the end of regulation it was 72-72. The theme of this game was Middlebury’s bench scoring 35 total points. An astonishing nine Panthers scored at least five points, a feat made even more incredible by the fact that the game was close the entire way through. The game went to overtime because of a cold-blooded three by Vincent Pace ’18 coming off a high ball screen. With ten seconds left in overtime and Middlebury up three points, the Jumbos got a great look to tie the game up. The three from Stephen Haladyna ’16 went in and out, and the Panthers got the big home victory.

6. January 10: Trinity 76 over Williams 75, Hartford, CT.

The final game of the first weekend was a dandy with the young Ephs pushing the veteran Bantams all the way to the end. The victory was a coming out party for Ed Ogundeko ’17, who scored a game-high 21 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. The final 10 seconds were frantic with Shay Ajayi ’16 first putting Trinity up 74-73 on a fast break layup. Then he committed a stupid blunder fouling Cole Teal ’18 70 feet away from the basket. However, Jaquann Starks ’16 raced the other way for a layup to pull out the win for the Bantams. The loss was the first of a few late heartbreaking conference losses for Williams.

5. February 6: Middlebury 67 over Colby 65, Middlebury, VT.

The first half of this one was a smothering defensive performance from the Panthers, and the score was 35-22 Middlebury at halftime. The game really got going at the beginning of the second half when Colby went on a 32-10 run to turn a 15-point deficit into a seven-point lead. Credit has to go to Middlebury for not folding at this point and coming right back with an 11-3 run that made the score 58-57 Middlebury. The rest of the game was neck and neck. After Adisa Majors ’18 tied things up 65-65 with 0:30 left, Colby could have held for the final shot. However, Luke Westman ’16 drove and missed a layup. Jack Daly ’18 leaked out on the rebound for an easy bucket, and that proved to be the final difference.

4. January 30: Amherst 89 over Trinity 82, Hartford, CT.

The game between the top teams in the NESCAC fell on travel weekend with Trinity undefeated at 5-0 and Amherst at 4-1. This game was uptempo and close throughout, but it lacked any real drama. Amherst led the entire second half, and the Bantams never got the lead below five points. The Team from Central Mass was not slowed down at all by Connor Green ’16 having just seven points. Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Jayde Dawson ’18 both scored more than 20 points to pace Amherst. Ultimately, this game was the only conference loss for Trinity, but it didn’t hurt them since Amherst lost on the road to Colby and Tufts, thereby ceding homecourt advantage to the Bantams.

3. January 22: Wesleyan 78 over Tufts 77, Middletown, CT.

Another fantastic finish in this one. The decision by Vincent Pace ’18 to go for the steal with Tufts up two points, five seconds left, and Wesleyan in-bounding the ball with 90 feet to go was a bad one. That sent BJ Davis ’16 to the line where he calmly hit both free throws. In overtime, Joseph Kuo ’17 made a layup with under 30 seconds left to give the Cardinals the win. Kuo, Rashid Epps ’16, and backup big man Nathan Krill ’18 combined for 50 points and 23 rebounds as the size of Wesleyan was too much for the perimeter-heavy Jumbos. Both teams shot terribly from the foul line and committed a ton of turnovers in an ugly contest.

2. January 16: Amherst 88 over Conn College 86, Amherst, MA.

In the moment, the Camels pushing Amherst to the brink seemed like an indication that Conn College was going to make a major run this year. That didn’t happen, but this game was still a lot of fun to watch. Defense was optional in the first half after which Conn College led 49-45. Lee Messier ’18 was 5-5 from the field in that first half to lead the Camels with 13 points. But it was Jayde Dawson ’18 who took over down the stretch with 19 second half points. At the very end of this one, Conn College tried to run an inbounds play designed for David Labossiere ’19 to tap in an alley-oop, but his attempt missed and Amherst escaped on their home floor. This game more than any, between the presumed top team in the NESCAC and a team that went winless in NESCAC play last season, is an indication of how close teams played each other this year.

1. February 5: Wesleyan 66 over Williams 63, Middletown, CT

The number one game didn’t go to overtime, but it was a barn burner nevertheless. Williams and Wesleyan have played some great games over the past two years, and this one was probably the best. In front of a raucus home crowd, it was all BJ Davis down the stretch. In their first meeting this season, Davis had already beaten the Ephs on a runner with less than two seconds remaining. In this game, Davis scored the final 15 (!) points for Wesleyan to turn a 56-51 deficit into the eventual 66-63 Wesleyan win. The combination of the home atmosphere, the recent history of these two rivals (this win gave Wesleyan the Little 3 title), and the quality of the shot made this a clear choice for the top spot. I mean, just watch the video of Davis’ shot and try to tell me there was a better moment than that this year.

One More Time, with Feeling: Weekend Preview 2/12

Middlebury is in a position to host the NESCAC tournament is they can sweep the weekend, and Jake Brown '17 plans to lead them there. (Photo Courtesy of Will Costello/Middlebury Athletics)
Middlebury is in a position to host the NESCAC tournament if they can sweep the weekend, and Jake Brown ’17 plans to lead them there. (Photo Courtesy of Will Costello/Middlebury Athletics)

With the final weekend of NESCAC basketball upon us, 10 games remain and the bottom five teams are fighting for the final two playoff spots. There is more on the table than clinching playoffs this weekend; for the six teams that have already clinched, these games will determine the tournament host and final seedings. Trinity currently stands as the favorite to host the NESCAC tournament, but a Bantam loss this weekend would open up the floor for Amherst to snag home court advantage.

Middlebury faces off against Amherst and then Trinity, and two wins will propel them to the top of the ‘CAC and set the stage for a chilling Vermont NESCAC tournament. The Panthers still have some questions about their legitimacy as a top tier team, and this will be their biggest test against the big guns. The Panthers have had a great season and could easily be undefeated in NESCAC games considering their losses were by one and two points respectively. On the other hand, many of their wins have gone down to the wire. The turnaround for the Panthers this season has been an impressive one. Middlebury was arguably the best team in the NESCAC from 2009-2014, battling against Williams and Amherst in games that rank as the best in NESCAC history.

Then suddenly, last season, despite entering NESCAC play 9-0 overall, the Panthers stumbled to a 4-6 NESCAC regular season and missed the playoffs by virtue of tie-breakers. The talent on the Panthers was clear given their home evisceration of both Wesleyan and Amherst. However, entering this season expectations were lowered given the loss of the two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15.

We had Middlebury last in our Power Rankings at the beginning of January given their lackluster beginning of the season, but they have been a different team in NESCAC play. However, the weekend tandem of Amherst and Trinity has left many a quality team in a serious hurting. The Panthers can end up hosting the NESCAC tournament or heading on the road in the first round depending on how things play out this weekend.

Three to Watch

1. Guard Jaquann Starks ’16 (Trinity)

The senior has seen his role squeezed this season because of the growth of teammates Ed Ogundeko ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16. Starks is averaging just 11.6 ppg, far below the 14.1 PPG he had last year. His shooting percentages have also dropped below 40 percent both from the field and three point line. With all the space taken up in the paint by his big men, Starks has done most of damage from beyond the arc. I think we see a vintage Jaquann Starks game before the season is over, even if it doesn’t come this weekend. I am also intrigued to see how Trinity matches up defensively when they play Middlebury. Will Starks guard the quicker Jake Brown ’17 or will he be tasked with slowing down Midd’s leading scorer, Matt St. Amour ’17? I would put Starks on Brown and Andrew Hurd ’16 on St. Amour. Also, this…

2. Guard Cole Teal ’18 (Williams)

The loss of Mike Greenman ’17 has forced Teal to become the starting point guard. His skill set isn’t quite right for the role, which is why Bobby Casey ’19 handles that role down the stretch. What Teal is doing exceptionally well is shoot the ball from deep. In NESCAC games Teal is shooting 50.9 percent from three while making 3.4 threes per game, the highest amount in the league. Eighty percent of his points come from beyond the three point line, a somewhat scary amount that can make him one dimensional. Last weekend Teal shot 13 shots from the field and 12 of them were threes. Teams need to start keying on Teal for the shooter he is.

3. Center Joseph Kuo ’17 (Wesleyan)

You won’t find a more herky-jerky player in the NESCAC than Kuo. His game is one of the uglier ones around, but no one can deny the relative effectiveness of it. Kuo is a constant, sometimes under-appreciated part of this Wesleyan team. His numbers, 11.4 ppg and 7.2 rpg, scream important contributor but not focal point. Kuo’s best game of the season came when he played Tom Palleschi ’17 to a standstill (Kuo had 20 points, Palleschi 19 in the game), and the Cardinals escaped with the overtime victory. He has been quiet but efficient in the four games since then. For Wesleyan to get a home court game, Kuo will have to slow down Chris Hudnut ’16 in the paint. One positive for Kuo is that the emergence of Nathan Krill ’18 means Kuo can play aggressively without worry of foul trouble.

Game of the Week: Middlebury at Amherst, Friday 7 PM

Both of Middlebury’s games this weekend will impact the top of the standings, but they have to get through this one for Saturday’s matchup to hold as much meaning. A Middlebury win and Trinity victory over Hamilton would make Saturday’s game a winner-takes-all for the No. 1 seed. If Amherst wins tonight, then Middlebury will be playing just to secure a home game in the first round on Saturday. Last season’s win over Amherst was the highlight to a disappointing campaign for the Panthers, but there was a sense that the Purple and White were coasting through that game while Middlebury was desperate for a win. That won’t be the case this year, as both teams know what’s at stake.

The guard battle will be a fun one to watch, as both teams can and will employ two point guards at times. I would expect Jack Daly ’18 to be tasked with shutting down Jayde Dawson ’18, but Johnny McCarthy ’18 provides enough of a scoring threat that Middlebury Coach Jeff Brown might chose to task Daly with McCarthy. Down low, David George ’17 will be critical in slowing down Matt Daley ’16. If George isn’t at his best, or Middlebury can get him into foul trouble, Daley could have 15 points easily. The advantage for Middlebury in this game will be their pace. The two teams that play at the highest tempo, aside from the Panthers, are Tufts and Colby, each of who have beaten Amherst this season. On the flip side, in the halfcourt Amherst has to have the advantage. Brown and Daly aren’t great scoring threats, which means McCarthy can focus on shutting down Matt St. Amour. That means a lot of responsibility could fall on frosh Zach Baines ’19 and Hilal Dahleh ’19 as well as forward Connor Huff ’16. In most of their losses, St. Amour has been made ineffective one way or another – 5-19 shooting at Hamilton, 5-16 at Endicott, 3-11 at RPI. Therein lies the key for Coach Dave Hixon.

When there’s so few games in a conference schedule, one game that goes from an L to a W can significantly change our perception of a given team. Were Middlebury 5-3 right now, I think Amherst would be the heavy favorite, especially at LeFrak Gym. That being said, the reality is that Middlebury is 6-2, hungry to prove that they belong, and in a position to bring the NESCAC tournament back to Vermont. I don’t know if they will have enough fire power to pull off the weekend sweep, but I do think they have enough magic for a victory tonight.

Prediction: Middlebury 81 – Amherst 75

Two More Games to Watch

Conn. College at Colby, Friday, 7 PM

This isn’t quite a win-and-you’re-in game, but it’s darn near close. Conn. solidifies their place with a victory, while Colby would move to 3-6, and three wins might be enough to get in. The entire Mule lineup is healthy, at least for right now, and I’ve long said that that is a dangerous thing for opposing teams. This is probably the last weekend of basketball in the lives of the Mules’ starting five, unless they can win this game. Look for Tyler Rowe ’19 to have a big game for Conn (who’s going to stop him?), but for Colby to outscore their opponent.

Prediction: Colby 86 – Conn 76

Bates at Williams, Sunday, 3 PM

The final regular season NESCAC game. It could end up being a total nonfactor, depending on how things work out on Friday and Saturday, including the possibility of a Williams upset of Tufts, but it is possible that either team could be playing for a playoff spot. It’s more likely that Bates is in that position, but 2-0 weekends from Colby, Bowdoin and Hamilton would put those teams at 4-6 and Williams would be 4-5 going into Sunday, meaning a win would be necessary. The chances are slim, but the possible drama is exciting. If it does end up being an important game, I am going with the team that needs the win, plain and simple.

Last Ditch Effort: Power Ranks 2/10

The celebration was short-lived for the Bobcats on their senior night, and they'll need to find some inspiration if they are going to make the NESCAC playoffs. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)
The celebration was short-lived for the Bobcats on their senior night, and they’ll need to find some inspiration if they are going to make the NESCAC playoffs. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)

Being on break this past weekend, I followed the NESCAC action from afar even as my Middlebury classmates played their final regular season home games in Pepin Gymnasium. What stood out to me over the weekend was the continued separation between the top five and bottom six, and the Cardinals darkened that line with a buzzer-beating win over the sixth-place Ephs. As usual, though, there were close games even between the “elite” and the “also-rans”, but in this case all of big favorites won their games. So, while there is a little bit of variation in the top and bottom tier, there will be no teams crossing that chasm until one of the bottom feeders can emerge as a consistent adversary.

1. No. 19 Amherst (18-4, 6-2, Last week: 1)

Yes, they lost to Tufts, and yes, it wasn’t particularly close, but let’s not overreact. Look, Amherst isn’t a perfect team, and they might slip up here and there, but I still hold them as the favorite as of this posting today. Not to excuse Amherst from that game, but Tufts was at home, and the Jumbos shot 8-20 from three, and in case you forgot, Amherst is leading the world in three-point field goal percentage defense (27.4 percent allowed), so that’s anomalous. What’s more, Jeff Racy ’17 is in an epic slump right now (he was 0-6 from deep against Tufts), and I think that actually bodes well for Amherst going forward for two reasons. Racy’s slump has highlighted the ability of Connor Green ’16, Jayde Dawson ’18 and Johnny McCarthy ’18 to put up big points on any given night. They don’t need one guy to score 20 per game for them to win. Secondly, Racy is going to come back. He might not shoot near 60 percent from beyond the arc as he did early in the season, but he won’t go 0-6 very often, either. This team is still very good. As Adam pointed out though, the rotation continues to shorten, so the lack of bench production from the Purple and White remains a concern.

2. Trinity (16-6, 7-1, Last week: 2)

Two games, two easy wins, and one over the Amherst-slaying Tufts Jumbos in Medford. Even with Ed Ogundeko ’17 hampered, Trinity cleaned up the boards in both games. In stark opposition to Amherst, Trinity can get scoring from everyone up and down the lineup, which, in the end, might be the reason that Trinity prevails in a back-to-back NESCAC Semis and Finals scenario. For now, though, the head-to-head loss to Amherst still speaks loudly, and even though Tufts went on to beat Amherst the night after losing to Trinity, there’s the fact that the Jumbos may have been in panic mode and needing a win over Amherst. Don’t underestimate a team in a must-win situation.

3. Middlebury (14-8, 6-2, Last week: 5)

Spots 3-5 have become so muddled, but I took a glance over the Panthers last eight games and realized that if Andrew Groll ’19 hadn’t canned that short jumper as time expired to beat the Panthers, they’d be a lock for this spot and be 7-1 in conference play. Now, of course, we can’t just ignore that said nail in the coffin happened, that Middlebury has also fallen to Conn. College, that they only beat Colby by two points last Friday at home, and they haven’t yet played Amherst or Trinity. Still, as it stands today, they’re looking pretty good. They seem to have a bit of a fighter’s mentality this season, whereas in years past there was more of a sense that if the star wasn’t playing well or they were down at half, that you could write it off. Not anymore. I don’t have much wealth to wager these days (especially after some sour Super Bowl bets), but I’d put down a few bucks on Middlebury going 1-1 this weekend against the top two teams, which would mean a home playoff game in Pepin Gym.

4. No. 20 Wesleyan (18-4, 5-3, Last week: 3)

As I said in last week’s ranks, things are trending up for the Cardinals, so why did they move down a notch? Simply put, things are so close between Middlebury, Wesleyan and Tufts, and head-to-head scores move the needle ever so slightly. Tack on a nailbiter against Williams, a team that the Cards should beat handily on paper, and Wesleyan drops to No. 4. Still, the contributions of Jack Mackey ’16 and the solid eight-man rotation continue to give me confidence in this team. Their ability to pull out the victory against Williams suggests that they are a mature team, and that’s the difference between them and a green Ephs squadron.

5. No. 25 Tufts (17-5, 6-3, Last week: 4)

The win over Amherst and loss to Trinity sum up to a pretty par for the course weekend. Good for the Jumbos, as a 2-0 performance would mean bye-bye home game, but they were able to stay in the conversation with one win. In the loss to the Bantams, they breakout of Shay Ajayi ’16 is troublesome for Tufts. How was Tom Palleschi ’17, by far the league’s best shot blocker and a tough interior defender, not able to slow down Ajayi? Perhaps the key to beating Palleschi is to give the ball to someone quick who can step away from the basket and shoot jumpers, but how many teams have that guy? Not Amherst, maybe Middlebury if Matt Daley ’16 is making shots from 15-foot jumpers, sort of Wesleyan if Rashid Epps ’16 is going well, but if Joseph Kuo ’17 is in the game them Palleschi is apt to cover the latter, while Kyle Scadlock ’19 or Jack Simonds ’19 might be that guy, but as a whole their teams probably aren’t good enough to beat Tufts. So often in basketball it comes down to matchups, and it just might be that Trinity has the perfect one to exploit what Tufts can do on defense.

6. Williams (14-8, 4-4, Last week: 6)

They continue to solidify that No. 6 spot, even in defeat, as a buzzer beating loss to the Cardinals is nothing to tuck your tail over. They also just squeaked out a win over Conn. College, but the Camels are darn good, in case you hadn’t noticed. The biggest thing holding this team back is youth. Losing Mike Greenman ’17 has been, I think, an unquantifiable loss. He probably wouldn’t have put up massive numbers on the stat sheet, but his presence would have been invaluable, and we might be talking about the “top six” teams instead of the “top five” if he were still playing. As it stands now, two freshmen, Kyle Scadlock and Bobby Casey ’19, are playing starter minutes, while two others fit into the tail end of the rotation, and the rest of the rotation is pretty inexperienced, as well, with the exception of Dan Aronowitz ’17.

7. Conn College (12-10, 3-5, Last week: 9)

Sort of how I did with Middlebury, I look at Conn’s last X number of games and say, I could easily have seen this or that turning out differently and we might really have something here. Of course, you can often say that with any team, but Conn’s play has really stuck out to me. They’re young, they’re inexperienced, and they could easily fade off like most young teams, and yet they just keep competing. And I’m moving them up in the rankings, despite losing five straight games. Those five games – a neck-and-neck two-point loss vs. Tufts; a disappointing 105-89 loss vs. Mitchell College; an eight-point loss to Wesleyan, in Middletown, in which the Cardinals had to go 20-30 from the floor in the second half to win; a comeback attempt fallen short at Western Connecticut; and a lead let slip to Williams, 70-67. As the Camels get a little more mature, they’ll learn how to win those games, and by next season they could be hosting a playoff game.

8. Colby (14-8, 2-6, Last week: 7)

My Mules keep holding on. I shouldn’t call them “my Mules,” because I don’t want to play favorites (other than Middlebury), but I have stubbornly believed that they can turn it on all season long. They almost beat the Panthers, and they just got by the Continentals in the season’s highest-scoring NESCAC game. That’s just who Colby is – a run ‘n’ gun squad that will struggle against the better defenses. The bright side for them is that Chris Hudnut ’16 has been playing consistent minutes which gives them a chance in any game, and Pat Stewart ’16 has, at least for now, surpassed Racy as the best three-point shooter in the NESCAC. What’s more, Stewart isn’t a one-trick pony. As if this offense wasn’t dangerous enough already.

9. Hamilton (11-11, 2-6, Last week: 11)

Things are pretty ugly down here in the bottom trio right now, but none of these teams are quite dead yet. The Conts have a brutal weekend ahead with Trinity and Amherst coming up, but it’s not ridiculous that a 3-7 team could squeak into the playoffs, so they still have plenty to play for, and they showed it last weekend. The 15-point win over Bowdoin was consummate. Hamilton outshot the Polar Bears in every facet, matched them on the boards and only let Bowdoin ahead for the first 3:15 of the contest. The enigma that is Ajani Santos ’16 looked like an old version of himself, only better, with 25 points and seven boards. Unfortunately, the magic wore off in the game against Colby. Santos only played 17 minutes and had four points, but it was the frosh Michael Grassey ’19 bursting onto the scene with 23 bench points. Groll collected a double-double, as well, with 18 points and 10 boards, but Colby just outshot Hamilton in the OT period to pull away. This is another young team gaining valuable experience this season, and getting a playoff game would be huge for their development.

10. Bowdoin (10-10, 2-6, Last week: 8)

The loss to Hamilton really stung this weekend, and the Polar Bears didn’t put up too much of a fight against Middlebury. At this point we have a pretty good grip on what Bowdoin can do. They only go as far as Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19. Against Middlebury, that pair combined for 52 of the team’s 69 points. On the season they have scored 51.3 percent of Bowdoin’s points, by far the highest percentage for any duo (Vinny Pace ’18 and Tom Palleschi have tallied 37.6 percent of the Jumbos’ points). That can lead to some exciting games to watch, but it’s not a recipe for success, especially not at this level.

11. Bates (10-13, 2-7)

Bowdoin just creamed the Bobcats last night, but even if that hadn’t happened, Bates would probably still be in this spot. They’ve lost three in a row, seven of eight, and eight of 10. Things have really deteriorated. Bates opened the season with six straight games of 79 or more points, and had a five-game stretch where they scored 73+ four times. In the nine games sense, Bates has scored less than 70 in seven of those games, and the 73-51 loss to Bowdoin last night was probably the team’s low point. All of that is a long way of saying that Bates’ season has been in free fall for awhile. Other teams have figured out how to force Mike Boornazian ’16 into a lot of tough shots, and he’s had some bad shooting nights because of it with no one to pick up the slack. As I said before, none of these teams are dead yet, but it will take a monumental effort and a lot of luck for Bates to sneak into the postseason.

 

Appreciating the Bantams: Stock Report 2/9

Trinity's Ed Ogundeko '17 broke Bates' backboard on Saturday. Yes, that is awesome. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Trinity’s Ed Ogundeko ’17 broke Bates’ backboard on Saturday. That is awesome. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

The best team in the NESCAC over the past two seasons has been the Trinity College Bantams. That is really beyond debate too. Since the beginning of the 2014-2015 season, Trinity has gone 16-2 in NESCAC games. The second best record in that time is Amherst with a 12-6 mark. Trinity went further than any other NESCAC team in the NCAA tournament last season, coming within seconds of the Final Four.

These are all things you know, but I feel like the run by the Bantams is still an under-appreciated one; around here, at least, we continue to underestimate this team. We picked them to lose against Tufts on Friday night, and the Bantams have rarely topped our Power Rankings this year.

Trinity is also under-appreciated on a national scale. All of last year Trinity went unranked in the D3Hoops.com Top 25. Only when they made it to Elite Eight did they enter the Final Rankings. Even then, they were ranked just 17th. The Bantams are still not ranked in the Top 25 this season. Amherst, Tufts, and Wesleyan are ranked in the Top 25 this week. Trinity has beaten two of those teams, and is the only team to be above .500 against the other Top 4 NESCAC teams.

I get why the Bantams aren’t ranked: they lose games in the non-conference schedule that they really shouldn’t. This season they have lost five non-conference games, a high number for a supposedly elite team. However, what that analysis misses is that Coach Jim Cosgrove approaches those games as opportunities to get his more inexperienced players valuable playing time.

All that brings me to Friday night when Trinity had their way with Tufts down the stretch. The Jumbos made a second half run to tie the game back up at 58 apiece with exactly 10:00 left on the clock. Over the next four minutes, Cosgrove went unconventional, subbing out four of his starters in favor of bench players. Stalwarts Ed Ogundeko ’17 (playing at less than 100%), Andrew Hurd ’16, and Jaquann Starks ’16 headed to the bench for the likes of Erick Santana ’19 and Langdon Neal ’17.

A lineup with four bench players proceeded to soundly outplay the Jumbos over the next five minutes. With 4:29 left, the game had transformed from a tossup into one essentially over with the score 76-63 in favor of Trinity. The four bench players accounted for 13 of the 18 points scored in this stretch.

I want to pause here and say that Eric Gendron ’18 is a very very good scorer. He has a very good first step to get past his defender, and he has the size to finish at the rim. Not to mention that he can shoot the ball not just on wide open threes but in difficult, off-balance situations. He was the one that really fueled the 18-5 run with nine points all by himself. On a lot of teams Gendron would have a larger role, but he is biding his time while veterans like Ajayi and Ogundeko take center stage.

So to recap, on the road, with home court advantage throughout the NESCAC playoffs still on the table, with the score tied, Cosgrove went with a lineup with just one starter on the court. Rest assured, it was a gamble, one that no other coach in the NESCAC would make. If it didn’t work, I could very easily be writing about how Cosgrove’s refusal to play his core players more minutes is a fatal flaw in this team. But it did work in large part because of how much time Cosgrove has given for those players to develop this season.

Cosgrove is a fiery personality, and he certainly isn’t for everyone. On Saturday, his coaching philosophy was validated in a big way. After Amherst’s loss to Tufts, the Bantams have the inside track on getting the top overall seed.

Stock Up

Forward Shay Ajayi ’16 (Trinity)

It was Tom Palleschi ’17 that won NESCAC Player of the Week Honors this week, but Ajayi impressed me the most this weekend. With Ogundeko unable to start and able to play just 14 minutes because of an injury against Tufts, Ajayi stepped up in a huge way. On one end he was tasked with guarding Palleschi in the post, and on the other he was the main inside presence on offense. Palleschi got his with 25 points, but Ajayi still played alright defense on him and did a great job of keeping the Jumbo off the boards, allowing Palleschi to get just one offensive rebound. Meanwhile, Ajayi was exceptional with 26 points and 16 rebounds. He was the one starter who stayed on the floor during that critical run because of how important he was in that game. As evidenced from him having just eight points the next day against Bates, Ajayi is inconsistent. Still, he was stellar when his team needed him most.

Small Forward Dan Aronowitz ’17 (Williams)

The Ephs found themselves down by eight at halftime to Conn College, and it took a Herculean second half from Aronowitz to bring them to victory. He scored 25 of Williams’ 45 points in the half, including six of the Ephs’ final eight as Williams came back in the final minute to get the much needed victory. The junior plays within the system for Williams, but there is no doubt that the team leader in points and rebounds is the leader of this team. In the same way that Dan Wohl ’15 and Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 stepped up last season, Aronowitz has been fantastic this season. The Ephs are probably locked into the sixth seed, and the win against Conn College was a big one.

Stock Down

Hamilton’s Finish

Hamilton played their best game all season on Saturday beating Bowdoin handily 86-71. Ajani Santos ’16 enjoyed his best game of the season by far scoring 25 points. That win got them to 2-6 in the NESCAC. On Sunday, the Continentals led by eight at halftime against Colby, and it looked like Jack Dwyer ’18 had clinched things for Hamilton when he hit a jumper with 15 seconds left to make the score 79-75 for Hamilton. However, Chris Hudnut ’16 hit a three to make a one point game, and right at the buzzer Ryan Jann ’16 was fouled on a three pointer. He made two of the three free throws to send the game to overtime, and the veteran Mules finished things out from there. The loss keeps Hamilton at 2-6, keeping them from getting that critical third win. Now Hamilton has to win on the road at either Trinity or Amherst to have a chance at the playoffs. That won’t be easy.

Bowdoin Rebounding

Bowdoin didn’t show up in the first game this week against Hamilton, and that made their game vs. Middlebury all the more important. The Polar Bears managed to come back from a 13 point deficit, but their inability to pull in rebounds down the stretch killed them. Middlebury scored seven straight points down the stretch after getting offensive rebounds. The crucial play came with 2:45 left in the game and the score 67-67: a mad scramble for the rebound off a missed Zach Baines ’19 layup ended with Jack Daly ’18 getting the ball in the corner and finding a wide open Matt St. Amour ’17 who buried the shot. We have been saying all season that the Polar Bears miss John Swords ’15 on the interior, and there is no doubt that he would have helped against Middlebury as Bowdoin lost the rebounding battle 45-31.

Amherst Bench

For a team with as talented a roster as the Purple and White, Amherst has become over the course of the season heavily reliant on their starting five. The rotation still goes nine players deep, but Jacob Nabatoff ’17 and Reid Berman ’17 (two starters for much of last year) have become near non-threats with the ball, averaging a combined 4.0 PPG in NESCAC games. Eric Conklin ’17 is as steady as it gets as a backup big man giving about eight points per game, and Michael Riopel ’18 does a ton of things well besides score the ball. Still, this isn’t the monstrous rotation that people expected to wear teams out. We have seen Coach Dave Hixon have very short rotations in the past, and he won a National Championship playing basically six players. For whatever reason, a somewhat similar scenario is playing out this year, despite all of the talent on this team. Amherst got soundly beat on Saturday, and it was disappointing to see them have no extra spark in the second half, unlike the Bantams do.

Amherst vs. Tufts – The Battle for First Place?: Weekend Preview 2/6 (Part 2)

Johnny McCarthy '18 will be tasked with shutting down Tufts' top scorer Vinny Pace '18. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
Johnny McCarthy ’18 will be tasked with shutting down Tufts’ top scorer Vinny Pace ’18. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)

So I went 2-1 yesterday with two games cancelled due to snow. Tufts did not show up even though Jaquann Starks ’16 was a non-factor and Ed Ogundeko ’16 played just 14 minutes. Meanwhile, Trinity played at a consistently high level throughout the game, and after capitalizing on some Tufts mistakes in the last eight minutes or so, the Bantams pulled away. I didn’t watch either of the other two games, but more on those will come next week. As for my Bowdoin-Hamilton and Colby-Middlebury predictions, I have not wavered. We’ll see what happens today.

For the rest of the weekend we are going to see some teams fighting for their lives. Bates doesn’t get a much easier game today than it did yesterday as they follow up a massacre courtesy of Amherst with a matchup against Trinity. If the Bobcats want a shot at making the playoffs they’re probably going to need to win today. Bowdoin, also on the bubble, could put themselves in a great position to make the playoffs with a sweep this weekend. Meanwhile, Colby and Hamilton, each with just one win, can pretty much count themselves out if they lose their Sunday matchup. The contest between Williams and Connecticut College tomorrow should be an outstanding game between two solid teams, both of whom are trying to claw their way into the middle of the pack as the postseason nears.

The game of the weekend is now Tufts vs. Amherst, a matchup which will likely decide the top seed for the NESCAC tournament one way or the other. Barring an upset down the road, a win against Tufts should cement Amherst’s first place finish in the regular season, but a loss will give Trinity that title to lose. For Tufts, winning this game will do them a huge favor when the NCAA selection show comes around. In the shorter term, there are two huge questions that Tufts will answer today 1.) Will they get home-court advantage in the playoffs? If they lose, that may be out of their hands. 2.) Is this team a true contender in the NESCAC tournament? Sure, the Jumbos have beat up some of the bottom teams in the division, but besides Amherst, they’ve lost to the next three best teams. They have the talent, but can the put it together? This is a must win confidence-wise for Tufts.

Here’s what you’ve got to look forward to:

 

Two to Watch

1.) Guard Connor Green ’16 (Amherst): Whether or not he has been playing well leading into a game at Tufts, whenever Amherst rolls into Medford, Connor Green gets hot. Last year he put up 29 in the playoffs at Tufts in an incredible shooting performance. Green is a streaky shooter, but Amherst is going to need him on Saturday in order to maintain their position atop the NESCAC.

2.) Guard Tyler Rowe ‘19 (Connecticut College): Rowe will take on the Ephs who will be coming off a battle against Wesleyan, and it is vital that he gets going. Rowe has been an energizer for the Camels all year long, and he must continue his high level of play against Williams. If Rowe can’t get going, Conn is going to have a tough time keeping up with Kyle Scadlock ’19 and Dan Aronowitz ’17 from Williams.

Potential Game of the Week

Amherst vs. Tufts, Medford, MA, 2:00pm

Like I said above, this is a must win for Tufts. Talent-wise, these teams are very even overall, but each team excels in different areas. They both play one post and 4 guards, and they both look to run and gun. I’m excited to see who controls the pace of the game. The game will be decided by three sets of matchups:

Connor Green '16 exploded for 29 last year in Cousens Gym. Can he do it again? (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
Connor Green ’16 exploded for 29 last year in Cousens Gym. Can he do it again? (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)

The matchups of the bigger guards on both Amherst and Tufts will certainly be intriguing: Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (6’5”/205lbs.) vs. Vinny Pace ’18 (6’5”/185lbs.); Jeff Racy ’17 (6’5/210lbs.) vs. Stephen Haladyna ‘16 (6’5”/180lbs.); Connor Green ‘16 (6’4”/205) vs. Ryan Spadaford ’16 (6’4”/200lbs.). The key matchup here is McCarthy and Pace. McCarthy is known as one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, and he is just as long as Pace. If McCarthy can shut down Pace, Amherst has a very good shot to win this game. However, I think all three matchups are pretty even, and I don’t think that any one of these six players is going to completely take over the game. If there’s one who I might consider a sleeper here, it’s Spadaford. He’s been pretty consistent throughout the season on the boards as well as scoring the ball. Look for him to punish Amherst if they sag off him on defense. Overall, however, I think there is a little more firepower amongst the Amherst wings here, and like I noted above, Green has shown his ability to completely take over the game in Cousens Gym before.

Advantage: Amherst

David George '17 will have his hands full down low against Tom Palleschi '17. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tufts has to get Tom Palleschi ’17 involved early and often against Amherst. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Amherst is going to need David George '17 to step up in this one. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
Amherst is going to need David George ’17 to step up in this one. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve waited for the low post matchup between Tom Palleschi ’17 and David George ’17 all season, and finally the day is here. Palleschi and George are the top two shot blockers in the league, but Palleschi leads by a full block per game. Palleschi also tops George in rebounds per game and points per game. Though it appears that Palleschi is much more effective by the numbers, one thing to consider is George’s giant leap in productivity in conference play as opposed to his non-conference production. I still think Palleschi can outmaneuver George down low, but this should be a much more intense matchup than the stats might suggest.

Advantage: Tufts

Tufts is going to need a big game from Tarik Smith '17 on Saturday. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tufts is going to need a big game from Tarik Smith ’17 on Saturday. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

The point guard matchup between Tarik Smith ’17 and Jayde Dawson ‘17 will be extremely important to the outcome of this game. With such even matchups on the wings and down low, it is up to the point guards to separate the two teams. Dawson is Amherst’s top in-conference scorer, largely due to his demonstrated ability to get to the free throw line. However, Smith not only gets to the line more than Dawson, but he actually blows Dawson’s 27 free-throw attempts out of the water with a jaw-dropping 47 attempts. Tufts has played one more conference game than Amherst, but regardless, if Amherst allows Smith to get to the hoop as frequently as he has been doing so, Tufts is going to pull the upset here. When Smith drives, he creates open perimeter shots for Pace, Spadaford, and Haladyna. Last weekend against Bates, Palleschi even got in on the three-ball action, knocking down 3/3 shots from deep. I don’t think Dawson can stop Smith from creating, so I’m giving the matchup win to Smith.

Advantage: Tufts

This game is going to be a barnburner. After facing Trinity las tonight, fatigue could potentially factor in for Tufts, but it could also prove to be beneficial that they played a tough game last might. Maybe the ex-Lord Jeffs will be sluggish after their blowout win in Lewiston, but maybe the opportunity to get some rhythm shooting the ball is all Amherst needed. I know Tufts took a beating yesterday, but that’s exactly why I think they are going to bounce back and take down Amherst.

Prediction: Amherst 84 – Tufts 87

 

More Predictions

Bowdoin 80 – Middlebury 74

Colby 83 – Hamilton 76

Trinity 78 – Bates 64

Williams 80 – Connecticut College 82

(My predictions on the snowed out games from yesterday are still the same)

Conference Rankings Start to Materialize: Weekend Preview 2/5 (Part 1)

Dan Aronowitz looks to lead Williams past Wesleyan this weekend. (Courtesy of Williams College Athletics)
Dan Aronowitz ’17 looks to lead Williams past Wesleyan this weekend. (Courtesy of Williams College Athletics)

A couple of the games tonight are between teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any tightly contested games. The game to watch is without a doubt Trinity at Tufts, as both teams are still vying for the top spot in the NESCAC, but Colby-Middlebury and Williams-Wesleyan could also be pretty great games. Some familiar names will lead their teams to easy victories, while other teams will only have a chance if their stars can put up the big numbers I’m anticipating. Here’s what’s in store for the weekend:

Friday Games

Bowdoin vs. Hamilton, Clinton, NY, 7:00 pm

As we all know, Lucas Hausman ‘15 is the top scorer in the NESCAC. Bowdoin relies heavily on Hausman’s average of 26.7 PPG in conference play. In fact, in their two biggest blowout conference losses against Tufts and Trinity, Hausman has only scored just 11 and 14 points respectively. Conversely, in their two conference wins against Bates and Colby, he scored 42 and then 35 points. On the other side, Hamilton is coming off their first conference win in which they took down Middlebury on a last second layup by Andrew Groll ’19. Groll has turned into Hamilton’s star in conference play, putting up 11.7 PPG and pulling down 8.7 RPG. Despite Groll’s aggressive play down low, I don’t see anyone stopping Hausman, and I don’t think the Continentals can keep up with Bowdoin’s scoring.

Prediction: Bowdoin 79 – Hamilton 65

Colby vs. Middlebury, Middlebury VT, 7:00 pm

After Colby got out to a hot 10-1 start, they have now dropped to 13-7 due to their 1-5 conference performance. However, this record is a bit deceiving because aside from getting blown out by Tufts, their other conference losses are by margins of just four, nine, two and three. Additionally, Colby beat Amherst by two up in Waterville this past weekend. Meanwhile, Middlebury is 4-2 in conference with no win by a difference of more than 10 points and a total differential of just three points in their conference losses to Conn College and Hamilton. I like Middlebury in this one because of their ability to win close contests, but I would not at all be surprised if Colby pulled out the W. Look for Matt St. Amour ’17 to carry the Panthers to victory.

Prediction: Colby 74 – Middlebury 77

Amherst vs. Bates, Lewiston, ME, 7:00 pm

At face value, this looks like the easiest matchup of the day to predict, but then again, I never would have picked Colby to beat Amherst a couple weeks ago. However, in that game, Amherst shot a measly 33.3% from the field, 26.5% from deep, and a dreadful 52.9% from the free throw line. I don’t see any way that Amherst shoots that poorly again, and they proved that last weekend by shooting 50.9% from the field against Trinity’s usually stifling defense. For Bates to win this one, they are going to need to shoot the lights out, something they have not done consistently in NESCAC play.

Prediction: Amherst 84 – Bates 64

Williams vs. Wesleyan, Middletown, CT, 7:00 pm

Williams and Wesleyan are sitting at just about the same spot in the NESCAC standings right now, but Wesleyan is definitely higher in the power rankings considering they’ve reeled off three straight conference wins against Tufts, Bates and Conn College. This is a huge chance for Williams to make a jump in the standings, and with tough games against Conn College and Tufts coming up, they will have a tough task if they want to grab home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. If Dan Aronowitz ’17 doesn’t have a huge game, the Ephs are in trouble. I’m expecting Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 to dominate the paint and lead the Cardinals to victory.

Prediction: Williams 68 – Wesleyan 79

Game of the Night

Trinity vs. Tufts, Medford, MA, 7:00 pm

This tilt is the game of the week, however, if Tufts wins, the game between Amherst and Tufts on Saturday could be the battle for first place in the NESCAC. Tufts and Trinity couldn’t be two more opposite teams. Trinity is a defensive powerhouse that leads the NESCAC in PPG allowed at just 68.0 PPG, while the Jumbos are an offensive juggernaut, leading the NESCAC with 87.4 PPG. On the flip side, Trinity scores just 76.5 PPG while Tufts gives up 73.3 PPG, which leads me to believe that this game is going to come down to Trinity’s ability to slow down the Tufts attack. There are two big matchups to focus on in this one:

1.) Tom Palleschi ’17 vs. Ed Ogundeko ’17 – these two big guys are two of the best in the conference. They average about the same number of PPG in conference games (14.7 and 14.5 respectively). Palleschi edges Ogundeko in blocks and Ogundeko tops Palleschi in rebounds. This should be a VERY enticing matchup.

2.) Vinny Pace ’18 vs. Shay Ajayi ‘16/Rick Naylor ’16

I’m honestly not sure who is going to guard Pace due to the matchup problems that the four-guard lineup of Tufts produces. The extra 25 pounds that Ajayi has on Pace could wear him down throughout the game, but I think that this will allow Stephen Haladyna ’16, a threat in the paint, to take advantage of his height advantage over Naylor. If Naylor takes the challenge, Pace’s height and length will allow him to shoot over Naylor with relative ease. I expect Trinity to throw multiple looks at Pace, but either way, he presents matchup problems.

At the end of the day, I don’t see Trinity being able to keep up with the scoring of Tufts unless Palleschi gets into foul trouble. If that happens, Trinity could definitely win this game. Otherwise, I think the Jumbos give themselves the opportunity to play Amherst for first place on Saturday.

Prediction: Trinity 75 – Tufts 86

Eight NESCAC Stats You Should Know

Neil Fuller '17 gets mulled by a trio of Ephs. And this has nothing to do with the eight facts you need to know. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Neil Fuller ’17 gets mauled by a trio of Ephs. And this has nothing to do with the eight facts you need to know. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The amount of information you can get from basketball statistics is great. Though the NESCAC is not part of the advanced statistics revolution that has helped change the way the NBA is played (I don’t think NESCAC gyms are capable of having the advanced SportsVU cameras that are in NBA arenas), old school statistics like rebounds, blocks and points still are really helpful. Some of these stats you are probably generally aware of, while others might surprise you.

1. Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin): 25.6 PPG

The defending NESCAC Player of the Year has taken it to a whole other level this season. Hausman is the only player this season averaging above 20.0 PPG, and Hausman is managing to do it while having shooting percentages of 47.8/42.5/87.5.  He makes 6.8 free throws per game, nearly two whole free throws more than the next guy. While I don’t have official numbers on it, I would guess that Hausman also leads the NESCAC by a MILE in number of free throws off of three pointers, a fact that I know drives opposing coaches absolutely bonkers. The biggest difference in his game from a year ago is his three point shooting. He is making 2.2 threes per game this season, up from 1.0 per game last season while also upping his percentage of threes made from 31.8 percent to 42.5 percent.

2. FG% Defense of Wesleyan (37.5 percent) and (Trinity 37.7 percent)

Those marks put Wesleyan third and Trinity sixth in the country. Pretty impressive for the NESCAC to have two teams in the Top 10. I was a little surprised to see how highly these two ranked, honestly. I feel like both have taken a step back from their defense last season, but it might just be that both are playing at a faster pace. When these two met earlier in the year, Trinity shot 41.3 percent on the way to beating Wesleyan who shot just 32.1 percent.

3. 3PT FG% Defense of Amherst (26.3 percent)

That number for the No Mascots is the best in the country, and I think I know the reason why. All of that length on the perimeter, from Johnny McCarthy ’18 to Michael Riopel ’18 to Jeff Racy ’17, bothers shooters who can’t shake free. That Amherst is tied for fourth overall in the NESCAC in field goal percentage is a problem, though.

4. Ed Ogundeko ’17 (Trinity): 19.8 Rebounds per 40 Minutes

Ogundeko is a veritable vacuum on the boards, combining the width to box anybody out with a knack for the ball. He is blowing everybody else out of the water in terms of rebounds per 40 minutes. Matt Daley ’16 is second with 14.8 rebounds per 40 minutes, a far far cry from Ogundeko. He grabs 26.4 percent of Trinity’s total rebounds, and I would love to be able to isolate just when he is on the floor in order to fully get the picture of how good he is on the boards.

5. Matt St. Amour ’17 (Middlebury): NESCAC 2PT FG%: 34.0 percent

St. Amour is the second leading scorer in NESCAC play, but he is doing it mostly because of his three point shooting ability. He is shooting 47.4 percent from three while making half of his shots from the field there in NESCAC games. That St. Amour is making the harder (at least ostensibly harder) shots at a much higher rate probably says more about his ability to finish at the rim than anything. Though he’s obviously healthy, St. Amour still lacks explosiveness because of his ACL injury, and he often shoots floaters instead of trying to attack big men at the rim. Many of those floaters aren’t going in.

6. Jack Dwyer ’18 (Hamilton): FT%: 84.8 percent

This one is notable because Dwyer has struggled mightily to shoot the ball from three (26.3 percent) but not from the free throw line. Also notable is that Dwyer isn’t the only point guard with such a big chasm between those two percentages. Tyler Rowe ’19 is shooting 85.7 percent on FTs and 31.7 percent on 3PTs. I’m not sure the reason for the huge disparity, though if I was to guess it would be because Rowe and Dwyer are shooting threes off the dribble since they are point guards with the ball in their hands a lot.

7. Amherst Point Differential: +13.9 PPG

That number is the best in the NESCAC with Trinity the second best at +11.0 PPG. I don’t put that much weight into point differentials because of the disparity of non-conference schedules and the ability for one or two blowouts to warp the statistic given the low amount of games NESCAC teams have.

8. NESCAC Winning Percentage: .745

For the season, NESCAC teams are 102-35 in non-conference games (I excluded all non-conference CBB and Little 3 games in my calculations), a pretty darn good mark overall. However, it is in line with past seasons for the NESCAC. The winning percentage for the NESCAC against non-NESCAC teams last season was a lofty .769, which is probably a big reason why the league ended up getting four bids. In 2013-2014, NESCAC teams had a winning percentage of .718. Note, I also excluded NCAA tournament games in those calculations. I wanted to do more years, but I knew that I needed to get some sleep, also. Bottom line, the NESCAC is doing very well once again in their non-conference games.

 

Take Your Places: Power Ranks 2/3

Amherst is starting to find their groove. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Amherst is starting to find their groove. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Well, I guess the Amherst players didn’t like that I dropped them from the top spot last week, because they waltzed into the enemy territory of Hartford and traipsed out with the victory. Elsewhere in the rankings, Hamilton finally got angry about their low seeding and decided to pull off the upset. Even Bowdoin’s OT win could be considered an upset if you’re going by the power rankings (and honestly, is there a better metric out there?) And I’m sure, beyond a doubt, that in all of these instances a perceived slight by yours truly was the one and only motivating factor.

1. #11 Amherst (17-3, 5-1, Last week: 2)

Amherst made a big statement in that win Saturday. Though the final was 89-82, Amherst basically lead wire-to-wire and jumped out to a 12-1 lead to start the game after Trinity scored the first point on a free throw. All season long I’ve believed that they are the most talented team, and the only question is whether they can mesh well enough to win a NESCAC title. I’m still not convinced they can, but if I had to put my money on someone right now, it would be them.

2. Trinity (14-6, 5-1, Last week: 1)

The Bantams fall because of the head-to-head loss to Amherst, but my confidence in them hasn’t waned. Prior to last weekend’s game with Amherst, the Merchant Marine loss is curious, but the distribution of minutes makes me think that Coach James Cosgrove was trying to prove a point to his starters, so I’m taking the L with a grain of salt. Now that they’ve lost two in a row, though, they’re officially “battle tested”. Time to stop messing around, and solidify your seeding with a win over Tufts on Friday.

3. #22 Wesleyan (17-4, 4-3, Last week: 3)

The Cardinals stay in the three spot, and I thought about even moving them up to No. 2 because I think they’ve finally found some continuity. Over the last half dozen or so games, Coach Joe Reilly has settled into an eight-man rotation, and that has really become evident in the last two contests. Nathan Krill ’18, Harry Rafferty ’17 and Joe Edmonds ’16 contributed 88.6 percent of the minutes off the bench against Conn College and Emmanuel. Furthermore, Jack Mackey ’16 made seven three-pointers on Monday night, which gives me some confidence that he’s back to close to normal.

4. Tufts (16-4, 5-2, Last week: 5)

The Jumbos hurdle the Middlebury Panthers because of Middlebury’s slip up, not Tufts’ win over Bates. It’s really tough to pick one over the other, especially since their head-to-head meeting went down to a three-point attempt at the buzzer in OT. Both of these teams still have the Amherst-Trinity gauntlet ahead of them. Those two games will either make or break both teams’ seasons.

5. Middlebury (12-8, 4-2, Last week: 4)

Combine the tough early season start with a depressing upset loss at Hamilton and it makes you wonder whether the mid-season hot streak and 4-2 conference record were an anomaly. I don’t think that’s necessarily so, and I believe there’s a huge gap between the top five and bottom six, but still, the Panthers have question marks. They need to get Zach Baines ’19, who’s been out sick, healthy once more, because he is a spark on both ends of the floor. Since January 4, Baines has played 26.4 mpg. That would rank in the top 25 over the course of a whole season, so his absence shouldn’t be brushed off. Oh, I’d also like to point out that Matt St. Amour ’17 went OFF for 32 points at Keene St. last night, the place where St. Amour’s season ended with an ACL tear two seasons ago. Take that, unforgiving Keene St. hardwood.

6. Williams (13-7, 3-3, Last week: 8)

They’ve beaten everyone they should, and lost to everyone they should – at least when it comes to NESCAC opponents. The Ephs are 3-0 against Colby, Bowdoin and Hamilton, and 0-5 against Wesleyan, Amherst, Trinity and Middlebury. Unfortunately, if that trend continues, Williams will drop match ups with Wesleyan and Tufts over the next two weekends and finish 5-5. I’d be surprised if things shook out so neatly. They’re not playing particularly well of late, and some of the first-years might be hitting a bit of a wall. Still, for now they hold onto the No. 6 spot.

7. Colby (13-7, 1-5, Last week: 6)

I have no idea where to rank teams 7-11. Colby just lost to Bowdoin, who’s gotten crushed by Trinity and Husson in the last week and a half, but Colby also took Husson to OT. Bates has gone through the ringer in recent weeks, losing to Bowdoin, Middlebury, Conn, Wesleyan and Tufts, but they also beat Colby in early January. Conn has dropped three straight, but they do have wins over Bates and Middlebury in the bank. Meanwhile, Hamilton’s over there jumping up and down that they just beat the Panthers (Sorry, guys, but a two-point win isn’t going to be enough to shoot you up through the ranks). I’ve still got the Mules above the other Maine teams because of their experience and explosive offense. They need to be healthy, though, as we know, and need just a little production from the bench – at least defensively. Chris Hudnut ’16 is still having his minutes limited, and it’s possible he just won’t be 100 percent this season.

8. Bowdoin (9-8, 2-4, Last week: 9)

As cool as the 20-point breakout from Jack Bors ’19 was against Colby, I don’t think we’re going to see that repeated again this season, which means the Polar Bears are going to be fighting for a playoff spot. However, Lucas Hausman ’16 gives them a shot to win any game if he gets hot, and that’s mainly why I have them at No. 8. Hausman got better as the season went along last year. That might be happening again. In his last eight games, he’s had at least 26 points six times, 30-plus four times, and 42 one game.

9. Conn College (12-8, 3-4, Last week: 7)

This might be a little low, because I like the Camels, and I think they’re going to the playoffs this season. Even though I have Colby ahead of them, I could easily see the Mules slipping up down the stretch and falling short of catching Conn. The Camels have played all the good teams tough, except for Trinity – they beat Middlebury, lost to Amherst by two on the road, lost to Tufts by two at home and by eight on the road at Wesleyan. They have a great mix of stardom (Zuri Pavlin ’17), toughness (Dan Janel ’17), and talent from the youngsters (David Labossiere ’19 and Tyler Rowe ’19).

10. Bates (10-10, 2-5, Last week: 10)

No changes in the bottom two this week. The Bobcats haven’t won a tough game in awhile. They beat Maine-Farmington, who is 2-16, last night, Hamilton on January 15 and Colby on January 8, but have sprinkled in five losses during that span. The weird thing is that the Bobcats have beaten Husson twice this season. Husson is 15-4, and even though the North Atlantic Conference isn’t exactly the ACC, Husson has beaten Colby and Bowdoin. Even weirder, Bates was one of the four NESCAC teams to best Babson early this season. Still, they seem to be regressing right now. Not the time for that to happen.

11. Hamilton (10-10, 1-5, Last week: 11)

The Continentals have a little something going right now with wins over Ithaca, Keystone and Middlebury in their last five games, but Keystone has four wins and Ithaca isn’t what it once was. The win over Middlebury is legit, but it came at home, and they will need to sweep Bowdoin and Colby this weekend and then take to the road and beat either Amherst or Trinity to get into the playoffs.