Cole Teal – Nothing But NESCAC

Williams College 2019 Basketball Season Preview

Williams College Ephs

2017-2018 Record: 23-6 (7-3 NESCAC), Won NESCAC Championship, Lost in NCAA Second Round

2018-2019 Projected Record: 22-2 Regular Season (9-1 NESCAC), Win NESCAC Championship, Lose in NCAA Final Four

Key Losses:

G Mike Greenman ’18 (7.9 PPG, 2.0 REB/G, 3.1 A/G)

Greenman was a big hustle guy for the Ephs throughout his career. He was banged up and bounced in and out of the starting lineup due to injury last season but ultimately ran the court with Bobby Casey and was a key part of the fast paced offense that Williams runs. He is replaceable but his leadership will certainly be missed this season.

G Cole Teal ’18 (7.8 PPG, 4.6 REB/G, 2.0 A/G)

Teal was a solid shooter from mid-range throughout his career and was a key part of Williams’ depth. His efficiency from beyond the arc should be a point that the Ephs can improve on as he barely eclipsed 25% last season. He played their ‘3’ position on the floor but was undersized and this year’s Williams team will likely we much tougher to defend.

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Bobby Casey ‘19 (15.8 PPG, 3.5 REB/G, 2.1 AST/G, 42.9% 3-PT)

Casey is going to bring the ball up for the Ephs this season, much like he has done the past three seasons. He is the best shooter on the Eph team and should continue to drain threes all season long like he did 3.1 times per game last season. He is a scrappy guard with good ball handling skills and should see an increase in his assist numbers this year with all the big men surrounding him. He could actually see an uptick in the amount of threes he takes per game with no need to penetrate to the rim with Scadlock back in the lineup.

G/F: Henry Feinberg ‘20 (3.7 PPG, 2.4 REB/G, 41.6% FG)

Feinberg is a bit of a wildcard for the Ephs this season. He had a productive sophomore season starting when Greenman was out and coming off the bench as more of a defensive specialist for the rest of the season. He usually plays on the wings, but because of the size that Williams is likely to go with in their starting lineup, he will likely have more ball handling duties than he did in the past. He will be an oversized player at 6’5” compared to what most other NESCAC teams will put out on the court which gives the Ephs another advantage. He is a better outside and mid-range shooter than he is from around the rim and will compliment Heskett’s shooting ability well.

F: James Heskett ’19 (19.3 PPG, 3.7 REB/G, 1.6 A/G, 41.8% 3-PT)

The 2018 NESCAC POY and D3 All-American is back for more in his senior season. He is a mean, long sharp shooting machine with a skill set like Klay Thompson. He is nearly impossible to defend from the outside as no other shooters have his length at 6’8” and accuracy. He isn’t quite the defensive monster you would expect, but quite frankly, Williams really doesn’t need him to grab boards as they have two other more defensive oriented players on the floor at any given time. Look for him to have another incredible season.

F: Kyle Scadlock ’19 (18.0 PPG, 8.6 REB/G, 2.3 A/G, Missed 22 games due to injury)

The redshirt junior is back to prove that he is the real star of this team after missing almost all of last season with a torn ACL. Scadlock is undoubtedly the most athletic player on this Williams team and is the most exciting player to watch in nearly every contest. His length and athleticism are nearly unmatched among NESCAC opponents and his play around the rim and constant threat to dunk is difficult to defend. The 6’7” forward played in seven contests before going down with injury last season, averaging 18.0 PPG and 8.6 REB/G. He really looked like a candidate for player of the year before he got hurt and absolutely dominated in the playoffs when Williams made their run to the final four during his sophomore season. This lineup is starting to look scary now that he’s back in it.

C: Matt Karpowicz ’20 (9.0 PPG, 5.3 REB/G, 65.2% FG)

While Karp is the starter, Williams splits time between two big men most of the time. Michael Kempton ‘19 started most of the games here last year, but Karp has been starting so far in Williams’ first three games and has had better numbers per minutes played throughout his career. They bring in nearly a double-double combined per game and are some of the biggest bodies in the league. At 6’8” for Karp and 6’10” for Kempton, it will be tough to out rebound these guys. They are both well over 50% from the field and the Ephs will use that accuracy and their other outside shooting efficiency to dominate their opponents this season.

Everything Else

This is an intimidating roster to face. The Ephs are currently ranked #8 in the country, just ahead of Hamilton, but look to be nearly unstoppable on paper. Their average height in the starting lineup is over 6’6” which is undoubtedly the tallest in the NESCAC and probably one of the tallest in division III basketball. They are not just big though as several of their big time defenders can also play well offensively on the perimeter and as a result every range from inside the key to mid-range to beyond the arc is covered by a lethal shooter. They shouldn’t skip a beat with the departure of Greenman and Teal as Casey is fully capable of running the floor as he has been doing and simply dishing it out to the other guys down low or taking the deep shots himself.

I’d say that his team is undeniably the favorite to win the NESCAC, so the ball is in their court. Their most obvious competition is the Continentals who return all of their starters for the second year in a row and also have several athletic forwards. This team will really go over the edge talent wise if some of their younger guards can make an impact and rotate in to replace Feinberg when additional outside shooting is needed, potentially late in games. Spencer Spivy could be one of these guards to make an impact as he went 3-5 3-PT and 4-6 overall against MCLA on Tuesday. He’s also 6’5” so when he’s in their lineup really won’t shrink at all. Williams has won by an average of 42 points per game so far. Watch out, these guys know how to dance.

Not a Bracket Buster: Williams NCAA Tournament Preview

Williams (22-5, 7-3, NESCAC Champions)

These newly crowned NESCAC champs just got one of the few things that escaped them in 2017. They are hosting the opening two rounds of the NCAA tournament in Williamstown, MA against Bridgewater State and either Ramapo or Moravian. The #8 Ephs are in control of their own fate here as a home crowd and favorable schedule could lead them right back to where they were last year; namely, the Final Four. The road hasn’t been easy, but with the guidance of Coach Kevin App and the recent return of NESCAC Player of the Week G Mike Greenman, the Ephs are in better shape than they have been the last few weeks heading into the big dance.

How They Got Here:

Williams has had their ups and downs, including F Kyle Scadlock’s torn ACL, a lengthy absence from starting G Mike Greenman, and a host of players entering and leaving the starting lineup. While they Ephs never really stumbled along the way, they certainly had doubters throughout the season. Four of their five losses came to NESCAC teams, and two were against Tufts and Amherst which is surprising given the rest of their track record. They have had some shooting streakiness as G Bobby Casey has had some ups and downs, hitting a hot streak recently while G Cole Teal may have just gotten over the hump of an ice cold streak. They also saw the emergence of a star this season in F James Heskett, who was recently named NESCAC Player of the Year. He averages 19.5 PPG, although his presence as more of a back court player with his side takes away from Williams’ rebounding chops. Their leading rebounder is C Matt Karpowicz who comes off the bench to average 5.5 REB/G. Between their core of F Heskett, G Casey, G Teal, G Greenman, and C Kempton/Karpowicz, they still have depth and are well rounded on perimeter defense, distribution, and shooting.

Matt Karpowicz ’20 has been a powerful inside presence for the Ephs, and was arguably the MVP of the championship game, putting up 14 points on 6-8 shooting.

How They Lose

While Heskett and Casey have been great all season, they have their share of streakiness which leaves Williams vulnerable. In their 69-63 loss to Tufts, their four deep shooting threats (all of their starters but the centers) went just 4-26 from beyond the arc. Even in their championship win over Wesleyan, Heskett went 1-10 from deep and the Ephs were outrebounded 47-40. These were two things that hurt them in their regular season loss to Middlebury as well. The Panthers dominated the boards and were able to lock up Heskett and Casey until the last two minutes, when the Ephs made a furious run. Had Wesleyan been just a little better offensively, Williams would have been in trouble. Great coaching, athleticism, and experience should take the Ephs over their early round opponents here, but in their worst games, these teams at their best can compete with them. They need to distribute the shooting if one of their starters hits a dry streak and they will likely find a hot hand. And, as usual, Karpowicz and Kempton have their work cut out for them on the glass.

The Competition

Bridgewater State University Bears (18-9, 9-3)

Williams’s Friday Opponent, the MASCAT champions earned an automatic bid to the big dance after playing a season free from NESCAC opponents. The Bears have three common opponents with Williams and in those games they are 6-1 against those teams. Bridgewater lost to Salem St. 88-73, an opponent that Williams beat easily 80-68. They aren’t ranked nationally or regionally and relied on their conference championship to qualify for the NCAA tournament. They don’t have too much size, with their two biggest starters listed at 6’7,” which is advantageous to a Williams team lacking the size to rebound. They are balanced overall in terms of production, with four starters averaging over 12 PPG, three averaging over 4 REB/G, and five averaging over 2 assists per contest. However, lacking any real strength of schedule, they should be overmatched by a superior Eph team.

Rayshon Ward ’20 is one of three Bridgewater St players who average over 15 PPG.

Moravian College Greyhounds (20-7, 10-4)

The Greyhounds also were recently crowned conference champions, earning the auto-bid from the Landmark conference, losing seven games along the way, but only one to a regionally ranked opponent. They played Hamilton in their preseason and lost by just four points during a dominant run from the Continentals. The fact that they competed closely with this squad shows that at their best, they would at least give Williams a run for their money. Now, six other losses to worse opponents than Williams lost to all season certainly lowers their chances of knocking off the Ephs, and the rest of their body of work is underwhelming. They shoot a respectable 37.8% from three point range, but that is the best statistic they own. They only have one player above 4 REB/G and had nine players start games this year without any injuries. This means they couldn’t exactly find the winning formula, and as a result relied on the conference championship to get to the tournament. They are a shooting team, averaging 86 PPG, and would need to be red hot all game long to run with the Ephs.

Ramapo College Roadrunners (21-6, 15-3)

The Roadrunners are ranked second in the Atlantic region and have been ranked as high as sixth nationally during the season, but find themselves currently outside of the top-25. It’s tough to see how they fell out of the national rankings on the surface, but they look much weaker given a closer look at their strength of schedule. Unlike the NESCAC, where as many as six of the teams saw national rankings throughout the season and those six were all regionally ranked, Ramapo faced just one ranked opponent all year. That game came against formerly #14 and currently unranked Ohio Wesleyan University on December 28th where the final score was 98-69 in favor of OWU. This crushing defeat surely contributed from the fall from grace for Ramapo as with just six losses, they appear to be much stronger on the surface. They have just two players averaging double digit PPG, two over 5 REB/G, and drain their threes just 32% of the time. They shouldn’t be able to keep up with a far superior Williams team and they round out what looks to be a weak regional, favoring the Ephs who have a great shot to reach the Sweet-16 for the second year in a row.

The Real NESCAC ‘Ship? Hamilton @ Williams Preview

Hamilton (22-3, 7-3) @ Williams (20-5, 7-3)2/24 7:30 PM @ Amherst, MA

Overview:

This could be the matchup between the two best NESCAC teams, but it happens to only have a ticket to the finals and not a banner on the line. Williams travelled to Hamilton just two weeks ago with the Ephs coming out on top in a big way, pulling away by 14 in the second half, winning 81-67. Although both teams are shoe ins to make the NCAA tournament, only one is going to have a chance at the NESCAC title and home field advantage in the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament still hangs in the balance. Hamilton shot unusually poorly last time these teams met at 37.3% while their season average is 46.4%. Williams, on the other hand, shot 45% from deep and 54.3% overall, way up from their 47% season average.

Kena Gilmour is going to need to be at his best to advance to the NESCAC finals.

Hamilton has turned it back around after a brief scuffle at the midway point of conference play, showing the rest of the league that their season may be far from over. They beat Middlebury handily in the last weekend of the year 102-83 and knocking off Tufts without much struggle 91-82 in the quarterfinals despite shooting horribly. If they play anything like they did against the Panthers, they will be unstoppable as they lit it up (52.5% FG, 62.5% 3 PT) and only turned the ball over 11 times. Despite their win against the Jumbos in the quarterfinals, they only shot 16.7% from deep which won’t do the trick against the Ephs as their shooters have been on fire in their own right. Bobby Casey and James Heskett won’t stop scoring, so don’t be fooled by their narrow margin of victory over a weak Trinity team 73-71. Coupling Williams’ recent lack of depth with Hamilton’s recent shooting inconsistencies, this game could swing in any sort of direction.

Williams X-Factor: Centers Matthew Karpowicz/Michael Kempton

Despite James Heskett’s breakout season as a PF, his outside shooting combined with a recent lack of rebounds leaves a deficit in the front court for the Ephs. Not a single Williams player had more than six boards in any of their last three games. Centers Michael Kempton and Matthew Karpowicz are a major key to this matchup as they need to battle down low against Peter Hoffmann, Michael Grassey, and Kena Gilmour who combined for 37 boards against Tufts. With the possibility of Hamilton shooting their way to over 100 points like against the Panthers, Williams is going to need to grab offensive boards for Heskett and Casey to have big enough games to keep the Ephs on top. Karpowicz has hauled in double digit boards three times this season and is going to need to bring his A game this weekend as the Hamilton bigs are a big presence down low.

Hamilton X-Factor: F Michael Grassey ’19

Kena Gilmour and James Heskett are sure to score back and forth in this game, while Grassey needs to get close to matching the production of the new sharp shooting Bobby Casey. Gilmour should be the top scorer for the Continentals, although Grassey is the biggest three point shooting threat for Hamilton. He makes 40% of his shots from beyond the arc and scores nearly half of his point per game on such shots. He has also had some duds along the way though, going 1-7 from deep in a loss against Bowdoin and just 1-6 last weekend. Casey, like Grassey, has had some streaks, including a 14-25 run from deep in his last three games and a 1-10 performance against Bowdoin. The shooting scales will tip in the direction of whichever deep threat is more accurate.

Final Thoughts:

Both of these teams have played remarkably well all year, culminating in what is sure to be a barn burning head to head matchup. Hamilton made a long awaited transition to a powerhouse team while Williams battled injuries and adjusted perfectly with players stepping into new roles and Coach Kevin App leading the way. They have had some tough losses down the stretch—Williams to Amherst and Hamilton to Bowdoin, but they looked good in their opening round playoff games. Hamilton has a deeper scoring arsenal and more big game threats than Williams (due to their injuries) and looks to be more balanced headed into this semifinal. As mentioned, Bobby Casey has come out of nowhere recently to carry the Ephs. Cole Teal has played terribly as the fourth highest healthy scorer behind Heskett (19.6 PPG), Casey (16.2 PPG), and Karpowicz (9.2 PPG). He finally found his shot against Trinity, going 5-9, and without Kyle Scadlock or Mike Greenman, he can’t have any more 4-24 shooting stretches at this point in the season.

In the wake of injuries, Henry Feinberg ’20 has stepped into the starting lineup as a defensive small forward.

The combination of Kena Gilmour, Tim Doyle, Peter Hoffmann, and Grassey who all average over double-digit PPG should stretch out the Williams defense on the perimeter. They do turn over the ball and don’t distribute well, ranking in the bottom half of the NESCAC in both stats. This game is going to be a game of runs, with both teams finding streaky performances throughout their seasons. Both have top of the ‘CAC talent and potential POYs on the court in Heskett and Gilmour, and whichever team wins is going to likely win the conference.

Writer’s Prediction: 83-78 Hamilton

Entering the Belly of the Beast: Trinity @ Williams NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview

Trinity (15-9, 4-6) @ #9 Williams (19-5, 7-3), 7:00 PM, Williamstown, MA

Overview:

After a wild weekend of NESCAC basketball, Trinity limped into the playoffs as the #7 seed and Williams, like Middlebury, fell to the now #1 seeded Amherst Mammoths, dropping them in conference and in the national rankings. Obviously there is a big gap between Bowdoin and Trinity, the #7 and #8 teams in these playoffs and the top six teams. Bowdoin and Trinity combine for an 8-12 conference record (each 4-6 in conference), while the top six teams are all above .500. So, nabbing the #2 seed actually holds a lot of weight for the Ephs even though they missed out on hosting the NESCAC tournament (unless Amherst blows it against Bowdoin).

Kyle Padmore ’20 and his Trinity squad needs to play out of their minds to have a chance to win.

Trinity was on a bit of a hot streak entering last weekend, knocking off Wesleyan 73-60 and losing to Middlebury by just six (87-81), but fell flat against both Tufts (76-71) and Bates (65-48) who is now in their offseason. The Bantams had 17 turnovers in their game against the Bobcats, five over their season average. They were outscored by 12 in the second half and were destined for defeat thanks to a 12-13 free throw shooting performance from their opponent. They will need to play more disciplined basketball and shoot how they did against Wesleyan (9-18 3-PT) to have a chance against Williams. Williams, similarly, had won five in a row and 7/8 games before they lost a game they were expected to win against Amherst. They lost by a score of 72-57 to the Mammoths and shot just 27.6% from deep, much lower than their 35.8% season average that ranks third in the NESCAC. They shot just 33.9% overall in the game and didn’t have a single player haul in more than six boards.

Trinity X-Factor: Donald Jorden ‘21

Eric Gendron is going to need to play the game of his career for the Bantams to win—there is no denying that. But he can’t win the game alone. He will need members of his supporting cast, namely Donald Jorden, a first-year bench player, to come up clutch in a key situation to keep this Trinity team in contention. Although he only averages 4 PPG on the season, he has shot 16-19 in his last four games, tallying 16 points against Wesleyan in the Bantams’ best win of the year. If he can play an equally big role and everything else goes perfectly, then Trinity could have a chance to upset the #9 team in the country—if they don’t show up to play at all.

Williams X-Factor: Bobby Casey

While James Heskett is a potential player of the year, Casey has been the MVP of their last two games. The senior has scored a combined 53 points in his games against Amherst and Hamilton, shooting 16-30 total and a blistering 10-18 from deep. He is averaging 16.1 points per game on the season but really broke out right before the playoffs. If he plays anything like he did against Hamilton (31 points, 7-10 3-PT), then the Ephs should control this game from start to finish.

Final Thoughts:

It is no secret that Trinity is the heavy underdog in this game as they already lost 75-58 in their meeting earlier this year. Williams is deeper, has played better against better teams, and obviously has a better record. They are playing at home and are comfortable with their position, hoping to snag a home weekend in the semis if Bowdoin can upset Wesleyan. Trinity should be weary but know that they have nothing to lose.

Williams has few holes, but Cole Teal’s shooting of late hasn’t made his teammates celebrate like they are in this picture.

Some things to note for this game are that Williams has a struggling player in their starting lineup and could lead to a double team on defense on either Bobby Casey or James Heskett. This flawed player is Cole Teal who has shot 1-17 in his last two games. You read that right. 1-17. That isn’t good and certainly contributed to Williams’ loss against Amherst. That kind of inefficiency led to many wasted possessions for the Ephs and if the Bantams are on fire—as they need to be—it could certainly play into an upset factor.

Even though on the season Williams is also ever so slightly better defensively than Trinity, racking up 0.2 more rebounds per game and 0.4 more steals per game on average than the Bantams. This is another reason that Donald Jorden could come in to be a key player as he racked up 10 rebounds in his big game against Wesleyan, as many as any Williams player has had combined in their last two games. Williams still has the edge by a large margin in this game, but Trinity could put up a fight in their best case scenario.

Writer’s Prediction: 79-64 Williams

Rivalry Week: Williams @ Middlebury Game of the Week Preview

#11 Williams (12-3, 3-1) @ #16 Middlebury (11-3, 3-1), Saturday, January 20, 3:00 PM, Middlebury, VT

Overview:

The Ephs and the Panthers have become the NESCAC equivalent of the Cavs and Warriors in recent years. The teams met three times last season, including for the NESCAC Championship and in the NCAA Elite Eight. Williams ultimately got the last laugh, beating Middlebury in Pepin Gymnasium to advance to the Final Four. Both teams have carried over that success into this season. They are each ranked in the top 20 in the country, and have battled it out for the top spot in the league all season, along with Wesleyan and Hamilton.

However, both teams are far from unbeatable. Williams is without their star player, Kyle Scadlock ’19, for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Middlebury’s shooting struggles are starting to become incredibly worrying. Middlebury’s NESCAC loss is to Wesleyan, whom Williams beat for their best win. And Williams’ lone NESCAC loss is to Tufts, whom Middlebury just beat handily at home for their best win. All this is to say that both these teams are again tremendously evenly matched, and this game should have huge ramifications for league standings and the playoff picture overall.

Middlebury X-Factor: G Max Bosco ’21

Max Bosco ’21
(Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

At first glance, this pick might seem to be coming out of left field. Bosco has played fewer minutes than his fellow first year guards Jack Farrell ’21 and Griffin Kornacker ’21, primarily due to his smaller stature and struggles to create shots for others off the dribble. Farrell and Kornacker are both miles ahead of Bosco defensively at this point, and Joey Leighton ’20 is certainly more confident offensively. But Bosco can really shoot the ball. He hasn’t gotten a lot of chances yet, but his stroke is as sweet as anyone’s. Middlebury is the worst three point shooting team in the league, and second worst overall from the field. The clutch heroics of Jack Daly and excellent team defense will not be able to save the Panthers against Williams; they have to hit some outside shots to match Williams’ three point heavy attack. Bosco is capable of doing so. Additionally, his defensive struggles will not be as pronounced against the Ephs. Bobby Casey ’20 and Mike Greenman ’18, and even Cole Teal ’18, are an excellent group of players, but they are not large. Casey and Teal will be handled by Daly and Hilal Dahleh ’19, leaving Bosco matched with the 5’8″ Greenman. Bosco has a great opportunity this game to do what he does best; hit shots.

Williams X-Factor: F Matt Karpowicz ’20

We gave Karpowicz a lot of love in the stock report earlier this week, and that’s not just because he wrote some average football articles for us in the fall. Karpowicz is often unstoppable on the block, shooting 73% from the field, almost all in the paint. He splits time with Michael Kempton ’19, another very large person. As longtime reader Howard Herman pointed out, the two players offer very different looks for the offense. Kempton is a distributor, averaging 2 assists per game despite only playing 15 minutes. However, he is not a scoring threat, only shooting 42% from the field. Karpowicz is a game-changing scorer, and draws a lot of attention on the block, freeing up dominant shooters like Casey and James Heskett ’19. Indeed, in Williams’ closer games he ends up playing most of the crunch time minutes. I expect Middlebury to get a far heavier dose of Karpowicz than Kempton. Middlebury’s Nick Tarantino ’18 is a great athlete, but struggles with strong post scorers who can back him down and neutralize his length and leaping ability. And Adisa Majors ’18 is simply undersized, no matter which big man Williams has in. This means that Eric McCord ’19 is the guy, and has to avoid the foul trouble that hurt him against Albertus Magnus. In a game in which Middlebury must game plan heavily for Casey and Heskett, Karpowicz is the guy for whom Middlebury has no answer for on their roster.

Expect Matt Karpowicz to far exceed is 15 minutes per game on Saturday.

Final Thoughts:

James Heskett is certainly on the short list for Player of the Year, along with his teammate Bobby Casey, Jack Daly and Hamilton’s Kena Gilmour. He’s very long, with a gorgeous jump shot and incredible quickness for his size. Indeed, he’s been arguably the best shooter in the league this season, hitting 51% from the field and 43% from three. Luckily for Middlebury, however, they have one of the only players in the league who can match his skill set, if not his efficiency, in Matt Folger ’20. Along with the rest of the Panthers, Folger’s shooting numbers have taken a hit of late, but he is still a deadly scorer inside and out. And more importantly for this match up, he is miles ahead of Heskett defensively. Heskett’s skill set and athleticism have not yet translated to that end, as he averages just 0.3 blocks per game and 0.9 steals. Even more jarring is that he averages just 3.8 rebounds a night, despite being 6’8.” Folger, on the other end, has clearly focused on the defensive side of the ball. He is second in the league in blocks at 2.4, and grabs 8.1 rebounds a night. If Folger can outscore Heskett, Middlebury has a good chance to win.

James Heskett and Matt Folger are the crucial matchup to watch.

Rebounding may well be the key to Middlebury’s chances in this game. The Panthers are a bona fide dominant team on the glass. Their numbers are skewed by pulling down a ridiculous 70 against Tufts, but they still lead the league in total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and are second in rebounding margin. Williams is towards the bottom of the league in all of those categories. For a team that struggles shooting like Middlebury does, offensive rebounds are a must have statistic, and were what kept them in the game against Tufts until they pulled away in the second half. Williams is a team Middlebury can bully on the glass, creating second chances if shots aren’t falling.

Last thing: this could be a huge game for Jack Daly. He historically raises his game against Williams, but this isn’t just his already covered “clutch gene.” Williams doesn’t really have an answer for his strength at the guard spots. Greenman is far too small, and Bobby Casey isn’t particularly strong defensively. In fact, Williams doesn’t have a single player averaging more than one steal per game. Even their big men are occaisionally timid inside, with the notable exception of Karpowicz. This means that Daly is usually able to get to the basket easily against the Ephs. He’ll draw attention to the paint, and he’s the best in the country at finding open players once he gets around the basket. The key will be how many shots those players can hit.

Writer’s Prediction:

No longtime readers will be surprised by this, but I think Middlebury, on the backs of Jack Daly and an assuredly raucous home crowd, pulls this one out.

Middlebury 75, Williams 71

Back for More: Williams Men’s Basketball 2018 Preview

Williams College Ephs:

The success of the 2017 Williams season will be difficult to replicate, but the Ephs can do it. Coming off of a cinderella run to the Final Four as an at large team, kocking off Middlebury 79-75, the Ephs lost just one major part of their team. Referring to Daniel Aronowitz as ‘just one’ is a modest way to put it, seeing as he led the team in points per game (17.3), three pointers per game (2.1), and minutes per game (29.8). He was the leader, heart and soul, and mesh player of the Williams offense, able to drive to the hoop and shoot the deep shots. Luckily for Williams, they have depth and saw six returning players start 14 games or more, with James Heskett as the likely replacement in the small forward position. Both the sophomore and junior classes in this team are looking to break out with forward Kyle Scadlock leading the way. Scadlock had a monster performance in the sweet-16 round against Susquehanna last year, dominating the floor with his size and athleticism, dunking triumphantly en route to a 22 point, 12 rebound double-double. He is likely to take Aronowitz’s spot as the on court leader of the team despite only being a junior. Guard Cole Teal ’18 is the only senior returning starter, boding well for the longevity of the Ephs’ success. Aronowitz’s leadership will continue to work its magic this year as the departed Eph provided these young players—all underclassmen last year except for Teal—with experience and a base for how to conduct their business. After playing with such an experienced NESCAC veteran, they will not let their youth show.

Matthew Karpowicz and company are excited about where they stack up headed into the season

Teal is joined by fellow returners PG Bobby Casey ’19 and Center Marcos Soto ’19. Michael Kempton will look to make a push for additional playing time at center too after losing his starting spot to Soto halfway through the season.MbN’s own C Matthew Karpowicz ’20 will also challenge for playing time after putting up double digit point totals in several NESCAC games in under ten minutes played. A wild card for this team is Henry Feinberg ’20 who broke his hand in 2017 and was hampered by injury but is a physical, defensively oriented SF with the size to make an impact in the paint. With so many returners and options, Coach Kevin App should play 10-11 players significantly this year and might not need one player to replace Aronowitz. The Ephs’ depth and past experience should carry them early in the season, and if the junior class develops into the cohesive force they are capable of, they will be tough to shut down. They are ranked #3 in the country by D3hoops.com going into the 2018 season and are capable of making a return trip to the Final Four.

Projected Record: 21-3, 9-1

2016-2017 Record: 23-9, 5-5, Lost in NESCAC Finals, Lost in Final Four

Head Coach: Kevin App, 4th year, 53-29 (Through 2017)

Returning Starters:

Guard Bobby Casey ‘19 (8.5 PPG; 2.2 A/G; 38.4% FG; 2.2 REB/G)

Guard Cole Teal ‘18 (9.7 PPG; 3.5 REB/G; 38.9% 3-PT)

Forward Kyle Scadlock ‘19 (12.9 PPG; 6.3 REB/G; 53.6% FG)

Center Marcos Soto ’19 (5.4 PPG, 2.6 REB/G; 50.4% FG)

Key Losses:

Guard/Forward Daniel Aronowitz ‘17 (17.3 PPG; 37.3% 3-PT; 6.2 REB/G)

Starting Lineup:

Guard Bobby Casey ‘19

Bobby Casey ’19 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Contrary to many of the NESCAC PGs, Casey doesn’t control the Ephs offensive attack in that he has modest scoring and assisting numbers. He does, however, set the pace of the offense bringing the ball up the court and doesn’t force opportunities. The one fault is that he only shot 38.4% from the field, a number significantly lower than many of his teammates’ marks. If he can improve on his shooting and ball distribution, he could really make a leap in his junior season, especially with Aronowitz gone. Despite Aronowitz’s position as more of a small forward, he ended up controlling the ball on offense most of the time, and because Scadlock is more of a PF, Casey should have an increased role in the attack this year. Coach App doesn’t think one player will replace Aronowitz’s production, something that will lead to much more balance in the front court this year for the Ephs instead of an offense centered around Aronowitz. Casey will help balance this effort and increase his offensive production this year.

Guard Cole Teal ‘18

Cole Teal ’18 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Teal is the leader by elimination of this team as he is the only senior returning starter. While Scadlock will lead the team on the court due to his physical dominance, Teal will be the off the court leader, captain, and one of the top scorers. In fact, I predict he will be the second leading scorer behind Scadlock, not bold considering he ranked second last year. However, he won’t be particularly helpful in replacing Aronowitz’ rebounding. Instead, I think Scadlock and the trio of Williams centers will take on the bulk of the rebounding with Teal focussing more on 3-PT production as he will be the go to outside shooter for the Ephs. After losing Aronowitz, the leading 3-PT scorer of 2017, James Heskett and Teal will need to step up, and with more experience, Teal could see a drastic increase in scoring opportunity from downtown.

Forward James Heskett ‘19

James Heskett ’19 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Heskett will likely see the bulk of the starts here because G Mike Greenman was more of a sixth man and Bobby Casey’s sub. This is the position left by Aronowitz, and although Greenman made 15 starts last year, he played PG when he saw his time. Of course against a smaller lineup, coach App could roll with three guards, but Heskett fits into this spot much better. Heskett’s 6’8″ length will be yet another weapon for the Ephs on both sides of the ball. Although he didn’t start in a single game last year, he had a consistent role off the bench, averaging 20 minutes per game, 7.2 PPG, and 2.8 REB/G. He shot lights out from deep, to a tune of 43.6%, but didn’t attempt as many shots as Aronowitz or Teal. He lacks the experience of some of the other players but could make a big jump in his junior season as the door is wide open for him.

Forward Kyle Scadlock ’19

Kyle Scadlock ’19 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Scadlock is the future MVP of this team and is on my projected All-NESCAC second team. He influences the game in unique ways with his size and impressive ups, able to shoot well from the field and take over a game. He had a remarkable breakout period in the playoffs, throwing down some deafening dunks, exciting his fans, and putting up huge numbers against ranked teams. He’s not always going to have the ball in hands as he is more of a power forward, but he should dominate down low. His weakness is his outside shooting, turning in low 3-PT numbers and free throw stats (56.7%). If he could shoot from deep, he might turn into the NESCAC’s Lebron, but he has a ways to go. His potential is through the roof, but let’s not forget that for the bulk of the season, he played like his final stat line suggested (8.5 PPG, 5.0 REB/G)—solid but not a game changer. I’m betting that breaking out in the playoffs against tougher competition is no coincidence though. He improved from the charity stripe, from deep, and down low all at the right time and will bring that into the 2018 season.

Center Marcos Soto ’19

Marcos Soto ’19 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The big man spot on the Williams team is filled by a combination of Soto, Michael Kempton, and Matthew Karpowicz. As Kempton and Soto saw the bulk of the playing time, they are likely the starters—at least for the preseason. Soto made a transition into a starting role over the second half of the season, effectively winning the majority of the playing time from Kempton, but didn’t dominate by any means. He rarely scored double digit points or collected over four rebounds despite 17.2 minute per game. Kempton ran into similar troubles, averaging under four points and rebounds per game. Granted, neither big man shot the ball much (less than seven times per game, combined) and both shot over 50% from the field. This says that they didn’t need to score and didn’t try to–not exactly a fault. They never really controlled the ball off the glass though, and because of that, Williams didn’t have any players in the top-10 in NESCAC rebounding and finished tenth overall with 37 boards per game. They don’t play with a traditional center, but unless one of these two steps up, they could be usurped by Karpowicz who has a much higher ceiling.

X-Factor: Center Matthew Karpowicz

Matthew Karpowicz ’20 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

As mentioned above, Kempton and Soto lack the big game capabilities that top NESCAC centers have. Karpowicz has that potential, scoring double digit points in three conference games where he played less than ten minutes (vs Amherst, Trinity, and Colby). He averaged 4.2 PPG and 2.1 REB/G in just 7.2 minutes per contest in 2017, showing the ability to breakout if given a chance to start. His rebounding could really be what sets him up as the X-Factor here, as Williams has plenty of scoring weapons, but little defensive prowess other than Scadlock. His 2.1 REB/G in such limited playing time projects to over eight in a full game. If Karpowicz can break out, given the depth in the other four positions, the Ephs will be nearly unstoppable.

Everything Else:

Due to the depth of this team, there should be ample opportunity for different players to show what they’ve got. This means that 10-11 players should receive significant time in many different lineups. Especially in the early season, Karpowicz and others in the 2020 class should be able to step up and earn some playing time even with the experience of the other players. Henry Feinberg will be one of the guys looking to make a leap from obscurity in his sophomore year into the small forward position, offering a different look from Heskett. He should be the first wing off of the bench, bolstering the front court on defense. Scadlock will dominate the front court of Williams, finding plenty of chances early on to take over games. This is exciting for Williams as they could soon find their next superstar heading into a season with lofty expectations. They’re ranked as the highest team in the NESCAC after making an improbable run into the NCAA tourney.

Scadlock will have plenty of moments like this in 2018

While they lost in the NESCAC championship to Midd, eventually knocking them off in the elite-8—not too shocking of an upset—I didn’t even think they would get an at large bid. Of course, I failed to consider the importance of making the run to the conference championship, but they only went 5-5 in conference and started off badly (1-4 in NESCAC play to start 2017), jeopardizing a chance to even get into the postseason. They proved that they deserved to get the call to the tourney and then some, showcasing talent and depth—most of which returns for the 2018 season. Unlike Tufts, Trinity, Wesleyan, and Middlebury who lost so many key components of their teams, Williams is sitting pretty with four familiar places in their starting lineup. I hear they have been practicing their dance moves. March Madness, here they come; NESCAC teams, watch out.

Williams Coach Kevin App doesn’t have much to worry about–his team’s talent should carry the Ephs deep into the playoffs

Four’s A Crowd: Williams Final Four Preview (and Middlebury Love-Fest)

Before we get to the Williams Final Four preview, a couple thoughts on Middlebury’s terrific season, and the legendary careers of Jake Brown ‘17, Matt St. Amour ‘17, Bryan Jones ‘17 and NbN’s own Liam Naughton ’17. One of the hardest things about writing this blog is simply remembering that the players are students. The players that we laud, criticize and analyze every week have classes and friends and social stresses and just general college things going on in addition to the sports that we value so highly. I personally can’t imagine adding an intense sports schedule to my busy academic schedule (blogging, playing video games and eating onion rings,) and we have the responsibility to remind ourselves of that while writing.

Brown, Jones, Naughton and St. Amour led Middlebury to back to back NESCAC Championships, an Elite Eight run, and too many great moments to count.

But that is also one of the best things about writing this blog. NESCAC sports are a very tight knit community (as are NESCAC colleges in general) and it’s a thrill to write about people who are also your classmates and friends. This experience has been especially real for me in the last four years. I feel very blessed to have entered Middlebury at the same time as Matt, Jake, Bryan, and Liam even more blessed now to write about them, and simply to know them.

I want to single out Liam for a second. Like Bryan, he had the misfortune of entering in an incredibly strong guard class, and didn’t get a ton of minutes over the course of his first three seasons. But he never once let it get him down. He continued to work hard in practice, and was an incredible teammate for his whole career (his bench celebrations were a source of great joy for fans in the seats.) And this season he was able to provide valuable minutes off the bench when Middlebury’s guard rotation shortened up. Every team needs stars to win, but teammates like Liam are just as, if not more important.

The accolades for St. Amour and Brown have rolled in, and are deserved tenfold. Indeed, I can’t even open up my Facebook feed without seeing an article about a new award that Matt has won. But their success goes beyond awards. For four years they, along with Bryan (who had the bad luck of being in the best guard class in the country; he starts on every other NESCAC team) and Liam have represented Middlebury with flair, joy, and class. It’s been my pleasure to watch them and cover them, and it is my continued pleasure to know them.

*wipes a single tear from my eye*

Alright, on to the Ephs…Williams (23-8, 7-6, lost in NESCAC Final)

Turns out the Ephs’ blowout win over Middlebury in the regular season was not as much of a fluke as we thought. After losing to the Panthers in the NESCAC final, the Ephs took the rubber match last weekend in a game that showed just how much they have grown as a team throughout the year. Williams has always been a good shooting team, but early in the season if they weren’t hot from three, their defense wasn’t good enough to get them a win over a quality opponent. But that Williams team is long gone. Williams shot very well against Middlebury (49%, 40% from three,) but it was their defense that got them the ticket to Salem. The Ephs held Brown and St. Amour to 10-26 shooting (1-12 from three,) and held the Panthers to as a team to their lowest home scoring output of the season. Against Middlebury, Williams showed that they have everything firing on all cylinders, and are a real threat to win the National Championship.

Final Four Opponent: Augustana College Vikings (23-8, 11-5, lost in conference final)

Jacob Johnston ’17
(Courtesy of Augustana Athletics)

The Vikings are similar to Williams in that they have peaked in the NCAA tournament. Neither team won their conference final, but they both have put everything together to make a Final Four run. Augustana is led by their backcourt, with guards James Johnston ‘17, Chrishawn Orange ‘19 and Dylan Sortillo ‘18 leading the team in scoring. They seem to play at a very slow pace, only averaging 77 points on only 12.3 assists per game. The Vikings shoot a very high percentage from the field (48.5%) but don’t take many shots, and therefore have low rebounding numbers. Their team leader in rebounding is Johnston at 5.4, and the next highest number is 3.6. This is good news for Williams, as rebounding is their biggest weakness (the Panthers had 20 offensive rebounds last weekend, keeping them in the game.) Williams also defends the perimeter very well, so facing another team that relies heavily on their guards should be music to their ears.

Johnston seems to be the player to watch for Augustana. At 6’5” and 190 pounds, he has terrific size at the guard position. He is their leading rebounder and second leading scorer (5.4 and 12.7 respectively,) and certainly is the best match-up on paper for Daniel Aronowitz ‘17, Williams go-to scorer. With his size and rebounding ability, he will also play a critical role in stopping Kyle Scadlock ‘19, Williams’ best big man. Johnston will be the key to Augustana’s gameplan.

X Factor: Forward Kyle Scadlock ‘19

Kyle Scadlock ’19 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Speaking of Scadlock, he is the most important player for the Ephs tonight. Augustana, as every team must do against Williams, will try to run them off the three point line, and their slower pace could throw the Ephs off their rhythm. Additionally, they are a very deep team on the perimeter, giving them a lot of defenders to throw at Aronowitz, Cole Teal ‘17 and Bobby Casey ‘19. They do not have many defenders to throw at Scadlock. The Vikings are pretty big (they have four players over 6’7”) but not many of them play big minutes. And very few teams in the country have the versatility to keep up with Scadlock’s combination of size, quickness and skills. Scadlock’s assertiveness on offense has been a key to Williams’ run. He is averaging 17 points per game in their last seven, and his threatening inside presence opens up driving lanes and three point attempts for the guards. It is when he disappears and doesn’t look for his shot that Williams struggles. Scadlock has a great matchup tonight; if he shows up for it, Augustana is in trouble.

Other Teams in the Final Four:

#1 Whitman College Blues (31-0, 16-0, Won Conference Championship): vs Babson, 5:00 PM

Tim Howell ’18 (Courtesy of Whitman Athletics)

As you can probably tell from their record, the Blues are the favorite to come out of this weekend as national champions. They are one of the most dynamic offenses in the country, averaging 91.8 points per game on 48% shooting. They seems to just be loaded up and down the roster with great scorers, rather than doing it with ball movement. They only average 12.5 assists per game, a shockingly low number for such a dynamic offense. They are led in scoring by National POY Candidate Tim Howell ‘18, who averages 20.4 points per game. Howell is an electric one on one scorer, and his skill off the dribble opens things up for his teammates. And they take advantage of those opportunities. Four other Whitman players score in double figures, including Jack Stewart ‘19, who shoots 42.3% from three. If you had to point to a weakness for the Blues it would be on the boards and at the foul line. Their rebound margin is only +1, a low number for such a dominant team, and they only shoot 64% from the line. But for 31 games in a row, neither of those things have mattered.

#3 Babson College Beavers (29-2, 14-1, lost to MIT in Conference Final): vs Whitman at 5:00 PM

Joey Flannery ’18 (Courtesy of Babson Athletics)

Babson spent much of the season as the number one team in the country before dropping due to their conference final loss. But like Stella, they’ve gotten their groove back in the NCAA tournament. They scored 102 points in their Elite Eight win over Keene State, shooting 61% from the field. Stopping Babson begins and nearly ends with stopping senior guard Joey Flannery ‘17. At 6’5” and 215 pounds, Flannery has the size to score inside, but is also a deadly outside shooter and ball handler. He averages 23.4 points per game and has proven himself to rise to the occasion in big games. He had 38 in their Sweet Sixteen win over Tufts. And as if that wasn’t enough, Flannery also averages 7.1 rebounds per game. But Babson isn’t a one man show. Junior guard Nick Comenale ‘18 averages 16 points per game on 42% shooting from three, and big man Isaiah Nelson ‘17 provides a valuable post scoring threat. Babson is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country. The Babson and Whitman game at 5:00 tonight should be a classic, I recommend checking it out before tuning in to Williams to support the NESCAC family.

Can the Jumbos Trample the Ephs?: Williams at Tufts NESCAC Semifinal Preview

Vinny Pace ’18 looks to lead the Jumbos to Sunday’s NESCAC Championship game (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics).

#6 Williams (18-7, 5-5) at #1 Tufts (20-5, 8-2), Saturday, February 25, 2:00 PM, Medford, Massachusetts

Though they made it to this weekend last year, Tufts once again has a chance to win their first NESCAC Championship this weekend. The difference is that Tufts is hosting the remainder of the tournament this year, something the Jumbos have never done before. Just a couple weeks ago, Tufts hosted the Ephs in the very same Cousens Gymnasium that tomorrow’s game will be played in. As a Jumbos superfan, I can proudly say that Tufts smacked Williams in that game, but that does not mean Saturday’s matchup will be a rout. Honestly, I see this game going down to the wire, especially after watching Dan Aronowitz ‘17 and Kyle Scadlock ‘19 step up the way they did against their rivals. I am anticipating similar performances out of these two studs, and NESCAC hoops fans should be prepared for a barn burner out of the first game of the doubleheader.

Last Time They Met:

Dan Aronowitz ’17 is hoping to bounce back after a tough game against the Jumbos two weeks ago (Courtesy of Williams Athletics).

As mentioned above, the February 10th matchup between these two squads was not very close. Tufts walked away with a 93-68 victory catalyzed by their 18 three-pointers. With a silent first half, Eric Savage ‘20 came out of the locker room as a different beast in the second half, dropping 17 in 12 minutes of action. Now that sounds pretty good, but until you realize how he scored those 17 points, it’s just that – good. From the 12:06 mark to 6:42 left in the game, Savage knocked down five straight threes. He finally showed the crowd that he is a mere mortal on his next attempt, but that ~5 ½ minute stretch pretty much sums up the entire game. Tufts couldn’t miss from three. Meanwhile, Williams struggled from deep, much more than the box score shows at least. Sure, they ended up 8-25 from beyond the arc, but seven of those makes came in the second half when playing out the rest of the game was simply a formality. The Ephs were 1-9 from three in the first half, clearly missing Cole Teal ‘18, who sat out with some sort of illness. Tufts never trailed or allowed Williams to tie the game up after the first basket of the game, proving their pure dominance on that day.

Last Year:

Tufts played Williams in their last game of the 2015-2016 regular season just like they did this year, only to face them again a week later in the NESCAC quarterfinals. In game one at Williams, Tufts escaped with a gritty four point victory on the backs of Tom Palleschi ‘17 and Stephen Haladyna ‘16 despite a valiant effort out of Aronowitz. The playoff game the following weekend featured a much more balanced Tufts attack, with four of the five starters scoring in double-digits. Aronowitz did all he could, dropping 32 while just one of his teammates reached the double-digit mark, but at the end of the day, Tufts was too much, and they once again walk away with a victory, this time by six points. The two games featured much of the same type of strategy, but differed in who produced. If history has any bearing on tomorrow’s game, we will likely see similar strategy to their first meeting of the season, i.e. attempts by both teams to prove their dominance behind the three-point line, a lot of halfcourt offense and a much more conscious effort to share the wealth offensively by Tufts than Williams.

Williams X-Factor: Forward Kyle Scadlock ‘19

Kyle Scadlock ’19 dominated in the 2nd half against Amherst last week – Williams needs a similar performance tomorrow (Courtesy of Williams Athletics).

Last time these two played, I predicted that Cole Teal would be the x-factor and he didn’t step on the court, so I could be very, very off on this prediction. However, Scadlock has been playing some of his best basketball recently, and he is a big reason why Amherst was able to pull off the upset against Amherst last weekend. 14 of Scadlock’s 16 points came in the second half last Saturday, including a 7-0 run by the sophomore himself that gave the Ephs a nine point lead. Williams never looked back after Scadlock’s two minute stretch of dominance, and his emphatic dunk with nine seconds left capped off a well-deserved Williams victory. Against the Jumbos, the forward played pretty well, scoring 15 on 7-10 shooting, and with the post presence of the host team laden with injuries, a strong performance from Scadlock could be the difference. Not only can Scadlock take advantage of a size advantage on offense, but his success doing so will force the Jumbos to sag in to help, leaving shooters open on the perimeter. Aronowitz cannot shoulder the entire load in this game, so Scadlock needs to step up unlike his performance in the playoff matchup between these two sides last year.

Tufts X-Factor: Guard Ben Engvall ‘18

Tufts guard Ben Engvall ’18 is known for gritty transition buckets like this one (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics).

What’s one word I would use to describe Ben Engvall? Tough. The kid does not back down on the court, and that is going to be key against Williams. With Madsen banging around with a mix of Williams centers on the boards, Engvall is likely going to be tasked with keeping Scadlock in check. If he can keep Scadlock off the boards and force him into tough shots on the offensive end, Tufts will be in very good shape. Offensively, Engvall thrives off of fastbreak buckets, especially after an opposing team basket. He’s not going to light up the scoreboard necessarily, but these transition hoops are momentum plays, especially when he can turn them into and-one opportunities (which he does quite often). In the halfcourt offense, Engvall is a bit more limited. He is a good shooter that has shown the ability to knock down big shots, and when defenders close out poorly on him, the junior can get to the hoop. If Engvall can put up his standard 8-12 points, grab 5-6 boards and give Scadlock a hard time, Tufts should be golden.

Three Questions:

Will Dan Aronowitz go off?

I’m leaning towards yes. Aronowitz is a senior captain and Williams needs to win this tournament if they want to make an NCAA appearance. He showed last weekend that he means business, and the last time he played a playoff game in Cousens he put on a clinic. The reason I’m only leaning and not taking a stronger stance on this question is due to matchups. Tufts switches everything amongst their four non-post players, which makes it difficult to get open for opposing players. When Aronowitz does find the ball (which he inevitably will), he will likely see a combination of Vinny Pace ‘18, KJ Garrett ‘18 (assuming Pat Racy ‘20 is back and healthy), Everett Dayton ‘18 and Eric Savage. The length of all these guys, especially Pace and Dayton, is an issue, and the athleticism between the latter three guys will present problem for Aronowitz. Still, Aronowitz is one of the best players in the conference. I don’t think he’ll shrink in the bright lights of his biggest game since he became ‘the guy’ for the Ephs.

Will Tufts get a crowd?

As I mentioned before last weekend’s game versus Hamilton, the Tufts crowd is inconsistent at best. Despite the quarterfinal game being the slowest, most boring conference game that I have watched since I arrived at Tufts, it was still disappointing that the Tufts student population couldn’t bring forth a better effort for their Jumbos in the playoffs. The reason this question matters, however, is because at times, the Tufts crowd can be a huge factor. When Tufts faced Williams in the quarterfinals last year, for example, the crowd was completely into it. Every time Bobby Casey ‘19 touched the ball, “BOBBBBBY, BOBBBBBY, BOBBBBBY,” echoed through Cousens. I’m not saying the chanting did or did not affect Casey, but he was 3-9 from the field with 10 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and 4 turnovers. You tell me. In any event, the crowd only increased in size throughout the Tufts NCAA tournament run last season, and I have a feeling that the thirst to be part of a championship run could bring the Jumbo faithful down to Cousens on Saturday.

Will Tufts have more than one big man?

Honestly, I’m not sure, but it matters one way or the other. Drew Madsen does not demand the ball offensively like Palleschi or even Racy. Madsen gets his points more primarily off drive and dish plays or put backs. This means the Tufts offense is much more reliant on its wing players, but the important thing to remember is that the ‘Bos have spread the ball around very evenly when they’ve been successful. While it’d obviously be great to have Racy and Palleschi back, the Jumbos are in fine shape with just Madsen, it just changes the strategy a bit. Instead of pounding the ball into the post, Tufts will rely more heavily on pick and rolls and drive and kick plays. If they shoot like they did last time Williams visited Medford, the Jumbos have nothing to fear, but I don’t quite seeing them hit 18 three-pointers. The one-post lineup worked against Williams last time – will it work again?

Summary

Overall, I simply believe that Tufts has too many weapons for the Ephs. Every guard in the lineup has a different skillset, which equally as unique as it is deadly. I know that Williams is hot right now, and I’m not counting them out, but Tufts is the better team, and at home I don’t think they will flop like Amherst did.

Writer’s Pick: Tufts

The Ancient Battle: Williams at Amherst Quarterfinals Preview

#6 Williams (17-7, 5-5) at #3 Amherst (17-6, 7-3), Saturday, February 18, 2:00 PM, Amherst, Massachusetts

Overview:

It is so, so, so fitting that the Amherst-Williams rivalry gets to play out in the first round of the NESCAC tournament this weekend. As a little kid, I grew up attending Amherst basketball games. I idolized the likes of Andrew Olson ‘08 and Dan Wheeler ‘07 while I demonized the dreaded Williams squad and their silly cow mascot. I think I still have a shirt at home (far too small at this point) that reads “Eph, it’s what’s for dinner” with a picture of an Eph on the end of a fork. Yes, I grew up hating Williams, but since I arrived at Tufts I’ve lacked that ‘rival’ feeling for the Ephs and have flipped the script on my feelings for Amherst. That being said, real recognize real – Amherst is very, very good, especially when it comes time for the NESCAC basketball tournament. Given recent history and this season as a whole, this is a TOUGH match-up for Williams. Then again, Williams has had quite a bit of success in the NESCAC tournament as well, and the NESCAC trophy is no stranger to Williamstown.

Dating back to 2001, Amherst has won the most NESCAC championships: seven. Second place? Williams, who has four. However, Williams’ success comes earlier in the 21st century – the Ephs actually haven’t won the conference championship since 2010, and the last two times they were in the finals (2013, 2014), they lost to none other than Amherst. Over the past 16 years, in fact, Amherst has only failed to move past the semifinals three times. This means that if Amherst makes the finals, they are more likely to win the title game than to lose it. If Williams wants to reverse the direction of the rivalry, today is a good place to start.

Amherst X-Factor: Guard Michael Riopel ‘18

Michael Riopel ’18
(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

If there was a 6th Man of the Year award, I would vote for Riopel 11 times out of 10. At 6’5”, his ability to come off the bench and either shoot the trey ball or get to the rack puts a lot of pressure on smaller and bigger guards alike that draw the short straw and have to match up with him. The junior has been fine against Williams this year, but I’m still waiting for him to light it up. He will likely be faced with a combination of Aronowitz, Teal, and Chris Galvin ‘18, all of whom he can take advantage of in different ways. After his two great performances against Williams, I would suspect that the Ephs will be in a crazy help defense to neutralize Dawson’s drives to the hoop. If this is the case, look for Rio to drain a few from downtown.

Williams X-Factor: Guard Cole Teal ‘18

Williams needs a strong performance from Teal today, end of story. I don’t know if it was due to injury or something, but the nine minutes that Teal played in game two of the season series left the Williams offense in quite the rut. The way that the Ephs jack up threes, they can’t afford to be without their purest shooter, and Teal needs to show up. If he can get one or two to drop early, Amherst will have a much harder time staying in front of Casey and Aronowitz. It will also give sophomore Kyle Scadlock more room to work down in the post on Amherst’s Jacob Nabatoff ‘17. Defensively, however, Teal needs to be just as much of a workhorse. The Ephs cannot withstand strong performances from all three of Amherst’s top scorers – Dawson, McCarthy and Riopel – so Teal is going to need to play lockdown D on one of the latter two. Even if McCarthy or Riopel gets their points, as long as Teal makes it tough for them, he’s doing his job. Amherst isn’t the most selective team offensively, so if Teal can even make it a tad more difficult for them, Williams has a shot to pull of the upset. That being said, he can’t just play one side of the court – Teal needs to show up on both offense and defense if the Ephs are to have a chance.

Recent History:

Both of the Amherst-Williams matchups this year have ended in eight-point victories for Amherst. The first, a non-conference tilt played in Williamstown, was a tale of two very different teams. Amherst spread the floor and spread their scoring, taking the pressure off of Jayde Dawson ‘18 and Johnny McCarthy ‘18 for a change (though the two still scored 19 and 15 respectively). Coach Hixon only sent eight different players out on the floor for Amherst, but it was enough, and after a run to begin the second half, Amherst was able to maintain their lead and hold off the admirable efforts out of Cole Teal ‘18 and Dan Aronowitz ‘17. The two studs from Williams went off, netting 26 and 21 respectively, but unfortunately the rest of their team left their offense in the locker room. The Williams bigs struggled, resulting in a 80-72 loss for the Ephs.

In round two of this historic rivalry, the Purple and White hosted the Ephs in Amherst, this time ending in a 72-64 Amherst W. While Aronowitz again stepped up to the challenge, Teal barely saw the floor, and the Ephs just didn’t have enough firepower to match the Amherst attack. Bobby Casey ‘19 had an inefficient 11 points, and freshman Matt Karpowicz (who I am saying will undoubtedly be an All-NESCAC performer is junior year, if not next year), had a solid game with 12 points of his own. Unfortunately for Williams, that was it offensively, and Amherst walked away with a 2-0 lead in the season series after another strong performance from Dawson.

Final Thoughts:

This is a big mismatch at first glance, but these two teams are actually fairly similar. They both place a great deal of their offense in the hands of two terrific perimeter players (McCarthy and Dawson for Amherst and Aronowitz and Teal for WIlliams.) And they both lack consistent scoring inside, as their frontcourt rotations are filled with young players who haven’t stepped up to this point.

Williams offense will need to be firing on all cylinders if they want to pull off the upset.

Williams matches up fairly well with Amherst defensively. Teal and Aronowitz are both long, rangy defenders who can give problems to Dawson and McCarthy. However, what I think will doom Williams in this game is a lack of depth. Aronowitz and Teal have proven themselves capable of playing great games on both sides of the ball against Amherst, but it they’re busy chasing around Dawson and McCarthy all day, who else is going to score for the Ephs? Amherst is also too reliant on their two best players, but Riopel and Eric Conklin ’17 are ready to take some pressure off. Williams will need to have another game like they did against Middlebury, in which every player is cooking from three. It’s happened before, but I don’t see it happening again.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst

NESCAC the Third: Weekend Preview Part Two

Tyler Rowe ’19 is going to need to keep up his hot streak this weekend for the Camels (Courtesy of Conn College Athletics).

As Rory pointed out in the Friday preview, the third weekend is often a pivotal one for playoff chances. An 0-2 weekend this late in the season can be damning for post-season hopes, and that is only exacerbated by how strong the league is this year. Teams like Williams, Colby and yes, even Amherst need strong weekends to keep their playoff hopes alive, or reassert their place at the top of the league.

GAME OF THE WEEK – SUNDAY: Middlebury (13-2, 3-1) at Williams (12-4, 1-3): Sunday, 1/22, Williamstown, MA, 2:00 PM

Overview:

Will I choose Middlebury as the Game of the Week in every preview? Probably. But this game deserves must-watch status. Not only is it a rivalry game pitting two of the most successful teams of the last decade against each other, it features two of the best scorers in the league in Matt St. Amour ‘17 and Daniel Aronowitz ‘17. And it should end before the Patriots game starts, so no worries there.

Middlebury and Williams enter the game on very different footing in the league. Middlebury is 3-1, and was very close to pulling out a win at Tufts. Williams, on the other hand, comes in at 1-3 and has looked like one of the bottom teams in the league. For much of the post-Michael Mayer era, Williams has been a highly dangerous and successful 3-and-D team, relying on outside shooting and strong perimeter defense to remain a contender in the NESCAC. But the Ephs haven’t been able to put together those two components of their machine yet this year. Despite taking the most three point shots in the league by a considerable margin, they have the third-lowest percentage. The defense is still strong from a numbers standpoint, but they have been exploitable by patient offenses, allowing the third-highest shooting percentage to their opponents in the league. Williams might not have the personnel to continue playing their patented style, but they could prove that idea very wrong with a win over the Panthers.

X-Factors:

Eric McCord is a BODY down low, and the Panthers have really enjoyed his recent success (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics).

We’ve been writing a great deal lately about how the forward rotation of Matt Folger ‘20, Nick Tarantino ‘18 and Eric McCord ‘19 has given the Panthers an interior presence that many felt they’d be lacking this year. But in this game, I see the guards off the bench as being a crucial factor in Middlebury’s game plan. Williams will undoubtedly attempt to use the three point shot as a way to counteract Middlebury’s quick-strike offense. And if they’re hitting those shots, the Panthers may need some firepower from the outside to match them. That’s where the guards come in. The primary outside threat off the bench for Middlebury is Bryan Jones ‘17, who played some nice minutes early in the season but has shot just 5-18 in conference play. Recently, freshman guard Joey Leighton ‘20 has shot very well, entering the rotation just before league play and hitting 44% of his three pointers. Senior Liam Naughton and freshman Perry Delorenzo are also options, but haven’t played much in tight spots. Middlebury may need Jones and Leighton in particular to be scoring threats to open the floor for the three starting guards and the post players.

Williams’ big man rotation is a key for them as well. It is very telling that in Williams’ only NESCAC win thus far, a 72-66 road win over Colby, they got 33 points from their four forwards. In the other games, Williams has received a shocking lack of production from the frontcourt, on both sides of the ball. Williams is the second worst rebounding team in the league, and neither James Heskett ‘19 nor Matt Karpowicz ‘20 nor Marcos Soto ‘19 has been nearly consistent enough offensively to worry opposing teams. If Williams is to match Middlebury’s newfound interior presence, they will need good production from at least two of those bench players, as well as starters Kyle Scadlock ‘19 and Michael Kempton ‘19.

Final Thoughts:

This is a critical game for Williams, who is drifting dangerously close to falling out of contention for a top four seed. They have traditionally enjoyed a huge home court advantage, and have beaten Middlebury in some classics in Williamstown over the last few seasons, particularly in tournament play. But they need more than history on their side on Sunday. They need their role players like Cole Teal ‘17 and Heskett to hit some threes, and they need Dan Aronowitz ‘17 and Scadlock to play like stars. Aronowitz in particular should be key, as he will probably be matching St. Amour for much of the game. He has to at least play him to a draw if the Ephs have a shot.

Middlebury wins this one on paper. They have far more offensive weapons on the perimeter, and should be able to crash the boards against Williams’ frontcourt. However, Williams’ style of play is by nature unpredictable. If they are hitting threes, they can hang with anyone in the country, and it will be Middlebury’s job to run them off the line and into the paint, where they are far less proficient at finishing over size.

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury

Connecticut College (10-5, 1-3) at Tufts (13-2, 4-0): Medford, MA, 3:00 PM

Basking in the glow of their new standing at the top of the Power Rankings, Tufts has taken the league by storm, winning their first four NESCAC games. They still haven’t quite gotten POY-level production from Vincent Pace ‘18, but KJ Garrett averaged 15 PPG over the two games last weekend, giving them a valuable offensive weapon off the bench. The Jumbos still have problems in the post, as Tom Palleschi ‘17 has struggled offensively for much of the season. That said, Tufts has plenty of weapons ready to pick up the slack.

Connecticut College has a lot of momentum entering this weekend. They shocked Amherst last Sunday, owning the paint en route to an 83-76 OT win. The Camels were able to lock down Jayde Dawson ‘18 as well as any team has this year, holding him to 9 points on 4-10 shooting. That suggests that they should be well-equipped to handle Pace, who showed signs against Middlebury that he’s rounding back into form. They also got 40 points and 18 rebounds collectively from senior forwards Zuri Pavlin ‘17 and Daniel Janel ‘17. Tufts showed against Middlebury that strong post players can give them problems, as Eric McCord emerged against them with 22 points. Therefore, Connecticut College has the tools to pull off another upset, but I don’t see it happening.

Writer’s Pick: Tufts

Wesleyan (14-3, 2-2) at Bates (12-4, 3-1): Lewiston, ME, 3:00 PM

Salim Green ’19 rises up for a jump shot over an opposing defender (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics).

I’m setting the over/under for total points in this game at 105, as arguably the two best defenses (and least consistent offenses) in the league square off in what may come to be known as “The Battle of the Bricks.” Wesleyan looked to be nearly dead after starting off 0-2, but roared back with two straight wins over Amherst and Trinity. Wesleyan’s elite defense was on full display in both games, holding the two teams to an average of 60 PPG. They finally received some offensive firepower from Kevin O’ Brien ‘19, and Harry Rafferty ‘17 too, an encouraging sign. To win at Bates, they will need one of those two, or Salim Green ‘19 (finally got his name right) to shoot well from the perimeter, as Bates’ interior defense is often pretty much impenetrable.

Bates has been one of the surprises of the season thus far, sitting at 3-1 with a quality home win over Hamilton under their belt. Their success has obviously been chiefly due to the Delpeche twins, who combine for 27 PPG and 19 REB/G. Additionally, Malcolm leads the league in blocks at over 3 per game. The Delpeches are the keys to Bates’ offense and defense, but freshman transfer Jeff Spellman ‘20 has been pivotal in giving the Bobcats a perimeter threat off the bench. He had 30 points over the weekend. Bates should give Wesleyan a heavy dose of both Delpeche brothers, putting a tremendous defensive burden on Nathan Krill ‘19 and Joseph Kuo ‘17. Taking Bates’ lyric little bandbox of a home court into account, I see the towering twins leading Bates to another impressive home win.

Writer’s Pick: Bates

Colby (7-7, 0-3) at Amherst (10-4, 1-2): Amherst, MA, 3:00 PM

Well if they lose this one, there’s officially a crisis in Amherst. The Purple and White have lost two in a row, both to teams that hadn’t won a game in league play entering their match-up. Amherst’s problems have been copiously and gleefully documented on this blog, but they boil down to a lack of dimensionality on offense. Johnny McCarthy ‘18 and Jayde Dawson ‘18 have too much responsibility, allowing teams like Wesleyan to load up on them and dare other players to beat them. Colby probably doesn’t have quite enough perimeter depth to make use of this gameplan, but other teams have certainly taken notes on what Wesleyan and Conn College did to Amherst last weekend.

Patrick Stewart ’17 (Courtesy of Colby Athletics).

Colby may be the only team that played worse than Amherst last weekend. At 0-3 in the league, they are carving out a niche as the bottom team in a very strong league. Colby simply doesn’t have enough weapons to hang with the top teams in the league. Patrick Stewart ‘17 is an excellent stretch four, but like McCarthy and Dawson, he often carries an unreasonable burden for the Mules, yet with less of a supporting cast around him than the two Amherst guards. Amherst should use this game to get back on track, and ideally find a little more depth on offense.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst

Bowdoin (9-6, 1-2) at Trinity (10-6, 2-1): Hartford, CT, 3:00 PM

This game is a matchup of stars. Jack Simonds ‘19 and Ed Ogundeko ‘17 would be my top two POY candidates at this point in the season, due to their importance to their respective teams. Bowdoin for the most part goes as far as Simonds can carry them, as was proven by his electric 32 point performance in their lone NESCAC win over Williams. This game will be an excellent test of Simonds’ scoring chops in league play, as Trinity boasts an elite defense anchored by, who else, Ed Ogundeko.

Ogundeko may carry an even heavier load for Trinity than Simonds does for Bowdoin. In addition to being the key to the offense, he leads the league (and by nature of the transitive property, the team as well) in rebounding, and may be the one of the most intimidating shot blockers in the league. Players are straight-up terrified of shooting layups against him, which is heavily responsible for Trinity being among the league leaders in most defensive catagories. Bowdoin, on the other hand, is the worst rebounding team in the league. This could well be another 20-20 game for Big Ed, and if that’s the case, I see Trinity taking the win at home.

Writer’s Pick: Trinity