Amherst – Page 45 – Nothing But NESCAC

Power Rankings

As always, all picks are made by a committee of one. If you have any complaints about where a certain team is then please feel free to comment. And no I did not put certain teams purposefully low in order to get you angry.

1. Amherst (21-5, 7-1) – They don’t have the best record in the conference, or even their own division, but no team is as complete or playing as good baseball as Amherst. While Tufts has better top-end talent in the pitching department, Amherst has the deepest pitching of anyone. And while Amherst is third in the league in runs scored, the difference between them, Wesleyan and Tufts is minimal. Of course Amherst could prove me completely wrong if they don’t show up against Wesleyan. One way in which that could happen during this weekend’s critical West series is if Amherst’s defense lets down its talented staff. While Taiki Kasuga ’14 is usually great up the middle, the Jeffs’ infield defense combined for four errors last weekend against a Middlebury team that did not hit the ball on the ground too often, striking out 19 times over the course of three games, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14 had an ugly error on a line drive right at him, the product of a lapse in concentration. On the season, Amherst is tied for the fewest errors in the NESCAC, but one miscue can decide a game between two very talented teams.

2. Tufts (25-2, 6-1) – I predicted earlier in the year that Tufts would finish with less than eight wins. With only seven regular season games left that looks pretty good given they can lose a maximum of five games between the NESCAC and NCAA tournament (if they make it). We have talked at length about how good their pitching, but the concerns about their hitting are very real. Even though they roughed up Scott Goldberg ’15, the other Colby starters gave the Jumbos a tough time. At some point the time will come when the offense needs to pick up the staff, but will the bats be ready?

3. Wesleyan (21-6, 8-1) – Considering that they were the last team undefeated in conference and still hold the best record, Wesleyan fans are sure to take this ranking as disrespect. Know that the difference between the top three is razor thin. In a three game series I would not be surprised to see Wesleyan beat Tufts or Amherst, but I just have more questions about Wesleyan than I do the other teams. I am not sure if their pitching is going to hold up down the stretch or if their hitting is really as good as it seems given how they have struggeld at times in conference. This is the case of a team being great at many things, but not the best at any of them.

4. Bates (14-11, 4-3) – The gap between Wesleyan and Bates is big enough for an aircraft carrier to pass through. I almost left fourth place empty to make my point clear, but Bates has done enough in recent weeks to justify this spot. I don’t think they have a chance come playoffs, but I like them this weekend against Colby. Their senior class has been playing incredible, picking up the slack for a team that has otherwise underperformed preseason expectations.

5. Colby (14-9. 4-5) – Just a really tough weekend for Colby against Tufts. It was rough being swept, but losing two one run games is particularly heartbreaking. Now Colby falls right back into the mire in the middle of the East. Of course, if they win the series this weekend against Bates they make the playoffs, unless Bowdoin somehow sweeps Tufts, because Colby would own the tiebreaker against both Bates and Bowdoin.

6. Bowdoin (16-11-1, 4-5) – Most likely Bowdoin will finish the season without making the NESCAC tournament in what is a disappointing, albeit defensible, season. I say defensible because of all the injuries that occurred to the pitching staff. A lot of younger players stepped up, but it looks like it won’t be enough. You can count on Bowdoin fighting tooth and nail every pitch this weekend though.

7. Williams (8-13, 4-5) – The pitching just hasn’t been there for Williams all season to be competitive in the West. Their team-wide 7.67 ERA is easily the worst in the NESCAC. The offense has been very, very good for most of the season, but was not quite as good when it really mattered against Wesleyan and Amherst. They still have a chance to finish above .500 if they sweep Hamilton, which would be a great finish for the Williams seniors who have had long successful individual careers.

8. Trinity (11-16, 4-8) – Trinity is the beginning of the bottom tier of the NESCAC (who would have guessed back in March that we’d be saying that now?), but the bottom three teams are much closer than they have been in years past. Trinity has shown that they are not far away from returning to the top of the league next season. They have lost a ton of close games in conference and are just one or two impact players away. Those players are most likely already on the roster, and the final weeks of the season will help the coaching staff identify those potential contributors.

9. Hamilton (2-6, 9-11) – Hamilton holds onto the ninth spot by virtue of handing Wesleyan their first conference loss in a comfortable 7-1 win. They showed they don’t have the depth to stay with the top teams, but they have a nice young core that is going to be coming back. A strong finish against Williams will move them up the rankings, but they could finish in the cellar because of how the last place team has been playing recently.

10. Middlebury (4-15, 2-10) – It pains me to put Middlebury last because they have been playing better than that in the last few weeks, but they haven’t garnered enough victories to justify moving them out of this spot. If they had stolen one from Amherst then they would have moved up. The good news is that the team is playing better and better and getting plenty of improvement from its young players. The pitching and infield defense have really been transformed since the team returned from Arizona, but the bats have yet to follow suit. Nevertheless, the future is looking a lot better than it was just three weeks ago.

Stock Report April 21

The playoff picture is beginning to solidify in both Divisions. In the West, Wesleyan and Amherst know that they will be playing tournament baseball this May, and the regular season West crown will be decided this weekend when Amherst travels to Middletown, CT. As for the East, the Jumbos remain on top, though with five games still to play in conference a slump would drop Tufts from the number one seed. Everyone but Trinity is still afloat on the East side of the ledger. We have one full weekend of NESCAC play remaining, and here we discuss who’s hot and cold heading into the final week of conference play.

Stock Up

1. Bates (13-11, 4-3) – No team had a better weekend than the Bobcats did. They took two out of three against Trinity to take care of business, but more importantly saw Colby lose three tight games to Tufts. Bates cruised in game one behind another great start from Brad Reynolds ’14, and won game two by mashing their way to 12 runs. Griffin Tewksbury ’14 hit his conference leading fifth homer of the season as well. The Mules and Bobcats will meet next weekend in a series that should finally decide who will get the second spot in the East. I say “should” because Bowdoin could surprise Tufts and win multiple games to give them a chance. Bates also has two games still to play against Tufts which have been rescheduled to May 3. This has the potential to be a huge help to Bates because Tufts will most likely have nothing to play for. They could rest a bunch of their regulars, or at least not play them the entire game. Even if they ended up losing both games to Tufts, Bates can all but assure a playoff spot if they win two games against Colby. 6-6 might be all it takes to make it in the East.

2. Nick Cooney ’15 Starting Pitcher (Wesleyan) – Hamilton had a hard time figuring out the junior southpaw as Cooney had 12 strikeouts on the way to his fifth win of the season. Last week he won NESCAC Pitcher of the Week, and his performance this week was just as impresive. He has put an uneven start behind him in conference play with three great starts against Middlebury, Williams and Wesleyan. The in-season improvement by the entire staff has been the big difference in the Cardinals’ play in conference. Cooney has emerged as an ace and workhorse by leading the conference in innings pitched this season.

3. John Cook ’15 Starting Pitcher (Amherst) – We admit that we wrote Cook off a little bit when he let up 11 runs to Southern Maine in the beginning of the year. Since then the junior has rebounded in a big way, but he saved his best for last weekend. Middlebury was keeping Amherst on the ropes with a great pitching performance by Eric Truss ’15, but Cook matched him every step of the way, holding Middlebury to one run as the game went to extras. After a Tyler Jacobs ’15 homer put the Jeffs up by one in the tenth inning, coach Brian Hamm showed his confidence in his pitcher by sending Cook back out to start the bottom of the tenth. Cook calmly delivered, going three up three down. Considering Cook allowed 11 runs in one game, his 2.83 ERA is almost a miracle, and a testament to his recent dominance.

Alex Kelly '14 was among the few bright spots for Middlebury against the Amherst staff, going 6-13 in his last NESCAC series atop the Panthers' lineup. Courtesy of Rachel Frank — Alex Kelly ’14 was among the few bright spots for Middlebury against the Amherst staff, going 6-13 in his last NESCAC series atop the Panthers’ lineup.
Courtesy of Rachel Frank

Stock Down

1. Colby Offense – First we should give credit to Soren Hanson ’16 and Greg Ladd ’15 for stepping up big time and giving the Mules a chance to win the last two games of the series after Tufts managed to rough up ace Scott Goldberg ’15 in the first game. The offense, however, could not get anything going which is why the weekend ended without any victories for Colby. Yes, Tufts has some of the best pitching in the league, but Colby missed two golden opportunities to grab a game. Their best chance was in the top of the sixth in the second game when a double left runners on second and third with one out. On a groundball to second Jason Buco ’15 was thrown out at home trying to score the go-ahead run, and a Tyler Starks ’16 strikeout ended the inning with two runners still on base. The offense needs to regroup before the weekend for Colby to reach the playoffs.
Check out this amazing catch by catcher Nick Cutsumpas ’14 that helped the Jumbos sweep the Mules.

2. Hamilton’s Supporting Cast – Again, we don’t intend to single out a certain player on Hamilton for their poor play, but we draw attention to this in order to shed light on Joe Jensen’s ’15 play. Over the weekend Jensen was his usual havoc-wreaking self with five stolen bases in three games. Hamilton has faded in conference play after we highlighted them as a potential spoiler in the West, but it hasn’t been because of Jensen. He now sits at 18 stolen bases and a .512 OBP on the season. With nine games remaining he has a chance to match the 29 he had in 2013. The problem is that he just hasn’t gotten any backup from his teammates. He has ten more hits than anyone else on the team, and Hamilton has nobody in the middle of the lineup hitting for extra bases that would move Jensen quickly around the bases.

3. Harry Ridge ’16 Starting Pitcher (Bowdoin) – Since he started conference play with a gem against Trinity, Ridge has struggled to be the number one starter Bowdoin needed him to be because of the injuries to Henry Van Zant ’15 and Christian Martin ’14. Against Bates and Colby, Ridge couldn’t manage more than three innings in each game, and while he pitched six innings against Williams, he allowed five runs (three earned). His ERA sits at a respectable 3.00, and it is true, like we wrote last week, that his defense has let him down. Still, whether it is fair or not, Bowdoin needed him to be more than that in order to contend. His season is sadly reminiscent of last year when he went through similar stretches of uneven pitching. All that being said, don’t count him out to have a rebound this weekend as Bowdoin prepares for their last stand against Tufts.
You can catch the highlights of Saturday’s Williams-Bowdoin doubleheader here, courtesy of Bowdoin athletics:

Mid-Season Awards

With a few weekends left before the season draws to a close we thought now was a good time to put forth our awards for the year thus far. We took into account the entire season, but weighted conference performance above all.

West Division

MVP – Mike Odenwaelder ’16 Outfielder/Pitcher (Amherst) – Odenwaelder wins by a thread over many other deserving candidates. Odenwaelder is thumping the ball all over the place with a .447 average and top-notch .697 slugging percentage. He leads Amherst with 21 RBIs and is tied with Connor Gunn ’16 with three homers. All that being said, what puts him over the top is his mound dominance. The sophomore is so talented that he has pitched 20.2 innings for a team loaded with pitching. His 1.74 ERA is the sixth best mark in the NESCAC and he has held opponents to a .123 average. The only runs he has allowed were in his first appearance of the season. Odenwaelder is not one of the weekend starters (yes, Amherst is that talented), but his arm is one of the most electric in the league.

Honorable Mention- Joe Jensen ’15 (Hamilton), Donnie Cimino ’15 (Wesleyan), Alex Kelly ’14 (Middlebury) and Matt Kastner ’14 (Williams)

Most Valuable Pitcher – Dylan Driscoll ’14 (Amherst) – Amherst garners another award because one of the main reasons Odenwaelder isn’t starting is the performance of the Jeffs’ other starters, Driscoll in particular. The only team that has gotten to Driscoll is Williams, who roughed up the righty for six runs. Besides that, Driscoll has allowed one run in four starts which all lasted at least seven innings. A 1.50 ERA through 36 innings is nothing to scoff at. He barely walks anybody, yielding only four free passes on the season, but he still strikes batters out at a 8.50 K/9 rate. The senior is the leader of a staff that is deep in experience and talent.

Honorable Mention- Jjay Lane ’15 (Hamilton), Nick Cooney ’15 (Wesleyan) and John Cook ’15 (Amherst)

Most Improved Player – Joe Jensen ’15 Outfielder (Hamilton) – Last season Jensen was a stolen base savant who got on-base at an about league average rate of .347. This season, however, the Hamiltonian lead-off man has morphed into an on-base machine still capable of wreaking havoc on the base paths. A big reason for his .514 OBP is that he doesn’t strike out often while also drawing a lot of walks. He has as many walks, 10, as strikeouts. That, coupled with speed that earned him a second-place finish in the 400m final at the March NCAA Indoor Championships, Jensen maximizes his chances of getting on-base even when he doesn’t connect with the ball well. He has been carrying the Hamilton offense for most of the season.

Honorable Mention – Andrew Vandini ’16 (Amherst), Luke Pierce ’16 (Williams) and Max Araya ’16 (Middlebury)

Rookie of the Year – Jack Cloud ’17 Outfielder (Williams) – Wesleyan’s Robby Harbison is making a strong push for this award right now, but Cloud’s body of work is better at this point. An OBP of .459 and slugging percentage of .600 would be exceptional for a senior, and to do it as a freshman is almost unheard of. After only striking out only once in his first 11 games, Cloud has been rung up 10 times in his last six contests, but he is still getting on-base, having hit safely in five of those last six. He has not kept up the torrid pace he established at the beginning of the season, but those numbers were almost impossible to continue.

Honorable Mention – Robby Harbison ’17 (Wesleyan), Ellis Schaefer ’17 (Wesleyan), Kenny Collins ’17 (Hamilton) and Jason Lock ’17 (Middlebury)

East Division

MVP – Jason Buco ’15 Outfielder (Colby) – This pick might come as a surprise to some. Nobody in the East sticks out from the crowd, but Buco gets the nod over a number of others. A case could be made that teammate Kevin Galvin ’14 is having a slightly better season offensively. His OBP of .469 is 50 percentage points better than Buco’s, more than making up for Buco’s 48 percentage points advantage in slugging percentage. One big difference is that Buco’s defense has been much better. Galvin plays a more demanding position in third base, but his fielding percentage of .806 is still far too low. Buco’s four home runs is tied for tops in the league. Also a star on the football team, Buco is helping to turn around two programs at Colby that are hitting new heights.

Honorable Mention – Kevin Galvin ’14 (Colby), Chad Martin ’16 (Bowdoin), Kevin Davis ’14 (Bates), Griffin Tewksbury ’14 (Bates) and Max Freccia ’14 (Tufts)

Most Valuable Pitcher – Kyle Slinger ’15 (Tufts) – No award is easier to hand out than this one. That is saying a lot considering that the top four and nine of the top 11 league leaders in ERA pitch in the East. Despite that, no pitcher can touch Slinger’s dominance so far. To quickly reiterate what we wrote on Monday, Slinger has a 0.66 ERA and .136 opponents’ batting average for the season. He strikes out one batter an inning and hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts. The only wart on his resume is the 19 walks he has handed out thus far, but the walk issue is the equivalent of punctuation error in a Pulitzer Prize novel. Slinger has been so good that he garnered consideration for MVP of the East. A plethora of other pitchers are throwing great this season, but nobody can match the Tufts ace.

Honorable Mention: Scott Goldberg ’15 (Colby), Tim Superko ’17 (Tufts), Brad Reynolds ’14 (Bates) and Harry Ridge ’16 (Bowdoin)

Most Improved Player – Scott Goldberg ’15 Starting Pitcher (Colby) – When Goldberg got off to a fast start this season some questioned his ability to maintain it given how much he struggled last season. And yet, Goldberg has actually gotten better as the season goes on. He stumbled a bit against Trinity before tossing a gem against Bowdoin going eight innings while allowing two (unearned) runs. A season after posting a 5.50 ERA, he is the justified owner of a mark five times as low: 1.05. Goldberg is also striking out batters at a prodigious rate of 10.52 per nine innings. This award could just as easily have gone to fellow Mule Kevin Galvin ’14, who is enjoying a huge bump in production as well.

Honorable Mentions: Peter Cimini ’16 (Bowdoin), Brian Wolfe ’15 (Trinity) and Kevin Galvin ’14 (Colby)

Rookie of the Year – Tim Superko ’17 Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – If it wasn’t for how well Slinger has been pitching, Superko would be neck and neck with Goldberg for best pitcher in the East. For now he has to be content with being seen as the understudy to Master Slinger. Keep in mind, he is no slouch of an understudy, the owner of a 1.04 ERA and eye-catching 11.77 K/9. His two wins undersells the impact he has had for the Jumbos as a freshman. Last weekend the bullpen blew a lead after Superko threw five innings of one run ball. One knock of him is that he has only pitched 26 innings while never going more than six in a start. As Tufts takes any restrictions off him, Superko will only continue to improve. As an aside, the East is definitely lacking in impact freshmen overall when compared to the West.

Honorable Mention – Ryder Arsenault ’17 (Colby) and Tom Petry ’17 (Tufts)

Tell us what you think, where we went wrong and who we missed in the comments section.

West Power Rankings April 9

Editors’ Note: Check back later in the day for our East Division Power Rankings.

1. Amherst (14-4, 4-1)- The relationships between the two conferences of the NESCAC this season seems to mirror the two conferences of the NBA, just with the roles reversed. The East of NESCAC and the West of the NBA has talent and parity up and down the standings, with one team standing out (Tufts and the Spurs). And the West of NESCAC and the East of the NBA have two teams standing out at the top, with the rest of the standings looking a little iffier. The teams at the top of the West are Wesleyan and Amherst. Although Amherst (14-4, 4-1) sits below Wesleyan (14-5, 3-0) in the standings, the Lord Jeffs’ frightening combination of excellent pitching and offense places them in a position to dominate the West for the rest of the season. The Jeffs are hitting at a .323 clip, with a NESCAC-leading eight home runs. The power in the lineup is combined with a pitching staff that comes in third in the league with a 3.60 ERA, and is led by NESCAC Pitcher of the Year candidate Dylan Driscoll ’14. To return to the NBA analogy, Amherst is beginning to look something like this year’s Miami Heat, the team with by far the most talent in the conference, and is now ready to assert that talent on the league after coasting for a time.

2. Wesleyan (14-5, 3-0)- Amherst’s chief competitor for supremacy in the West is the Wesleyan Cardinals. Wesleyan is having a great season, sitting at 14-4 and 3-0 in the conference after a sweep of Middlebury. The Cardinals owe most of their success to a solid offense. The team is batting at a .323 clip, with an .813 team OPS. There is not a ton of power up and down the lineup, but Wesleyan is chock-full of solid hitters who get the job done. However, Wesleyan’s pitching has been shaky thus far, to the tune of a 5.12 ERA. Wesleyan’s fundamentals and offense have sustained them thus far, but the pitching will need to improve if they are to keep pace with Amherst in the West.

3. Hamilton (7-6, 0-2)- Although Hamilton sits at 0-2 in NESCAC, the only team that they’ve played in the league thus far is Amherst, while Williams had a three game sweep of Middlebury to bolster their record. The Continentals have had some offensive struggles so far, hitting only .274 as a team, despite an absurd .465 average from outfielder Joe Jensen ’14. Their pitching has been solid with a 4.15 ERA. With a series win this weekend against Middlebury, they could firmly plant themselves as the third best team in a somewhat weak Western side of NESCAC.

4. Williams (7-7, 4-2)- Williams is having a crazy season thus far. If you looked at just their offensive statistics, you’d believe it if you heard they were undefeated. They are leading the NESCAC in batting average, on base percentage AND slugging percentage, as well as being third in runs. However, Williams’ team ERA sits high above the rest of the league at 8.33. Williams cannot hope to improve their standing if this paradoxical existence continues. If their pitching can improve to being even average, their offense could carry them to make a run at Hamilton. But, if the pitching remains where it is, the offense will fall due to the intense pressure. It’s almost impossible to score nine runs a game against NESCAC pitching.

5. Middlebury (2-11, 0-6)- It was a general consensus in the pre-season that 2014 would be a re-building year for the Panthers. They lost three of their top five offensive players to graduation, and then the two remaining ones left the team soon before games started. This season is about the future for Middlebury, and there have been positives in that direction. First-year Jake Stalcup ’17 has posted a 2.79 ERA over 9.2 innings pitched. Young players like John Luke ’16 and Max Araya ’16 have been showing great potential in the lineup. Struggles like this can often serve to unify a young team in the years going forward. The team showed their mettle by playing Wesleyan tight in all three games of their series last weekend. Like the Ephs, Middlebury has had problems with the pitching staff, although defensive issues have fed into that. This year may be something of a lost season for Middlebury, but the positives from it should reverberate for years to come, and lead to greater successes soon.

Weekend Preview

Marquee Matchup: Amherst (12-3, 2-0) at Williams (6-5, 3-0)

The baseball rivalry lacks the cache of basketball and football, but any time these two schools meet it means a little bit more to everyone involved. Williams sits at the top of West after a sweep of Middlebury, but Amherst is clearly the favorite coming into this weekend after winning both of their games last weekend against Hamilton.

Williams is riding high after their offense showed once again its potency. The double play duo of shortstop Matt Kastner ’14 and second baseman Jack Roberts ’17 has posted insane numbers so far. Roberts is batting a nice .360/.396/.440 slashline in the cleanup spot, but his numbers pale in comparison to the outrageous .583/.659/.753 Kastner has been putting up. The rest of the lineup isn’t too shabby either with upperclassmen Marco Hernandez ’14, Thomas Stevens ’14, and Luke Pierce ’15 along with freshman outfielder Jack Cloud ’17 all posting similarly ridiculous stat lines so far. The problem the Ephs have been having is they are allowing almost as many runs as they score. Thomas Murphy ’15 (2.25 ERA) is the only pitcher with more than eight innings to have an ERA below 10.00. The team ERA is an astronomical 9.22. Williams pitching isn’t about to become nasty, but they can be better starting with cutting down on walks. 65 walks over 83 innings is way too many. The pitching staff needs to throw strikes and let a defense that has been very solid, besides Kastner with five errors, to make plays behind them.

Amherst has the luxury of trotting out three senior starters in Dylan Driscoll ’14, Fred Shepard ’14, and Quinn Saunders-Kolberg ’14 who are all owners of ERA’s below 1.06. Driscoll hasn’t allowed one run, earned or unearned, in 22 innings so far this season. The bullpen is led by two-way stud and 2013 NESCAC Rookie of the Year Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (ERA of 2.45) and Keenan Szulik ’16 (ERA of 2.53). All of these guys except maybe Szulik are power pitchers who get hitters out more often than hitters get themselves out. This is clearly the best pitching that Williams will have seen all season, and it will be really interesting to see how the battle of good pitching vs. good hitting plays out. The Jeffs offense is led by seniors Alex Hero ’14 and Taiki Kasuga ’14. Hero must have the most steals for a cleanup hitter in the country with 10 bags so far, and Kasuga is getting on base at a not too shabby .444 rate. Andrew Vandini ’16 gets things started at the top of the lineup and has improved on an already stellar freshman campaign, and Odenwaelder and Connor Gunn ’16 provide the pop in the middle of the lineup.

Amherst has swept Williams the last three years in baseball so this represents the last chance for Williams senior standouts Kastner, Hernandez, and Stevens to take one from the Jeffs. I am certain that the pregame speeches by those three will be fraught with emotion for good reason. You can bet it means just as much for all the Amherst seniors to have the legacy of never losing to Williams. The Ephs are probably hoping some of these games finish with scores resembling a football game while Amherst will look to show how balanced and talented they really are. Should be a fun one this weekend.

Two To Watch

1. Brad Reynolds ’14 Pitcher (Bates)

Bates had the unfortunate draw of facing Tufts and Bowdoin in the first two weekends of conference play. They were only able to play one of their games last weekend which was a loss, and the series this weekend could define their season. If they take two of three they jumble up the East behind Tufts, but losing the series puts them in a hole that would be tough to recover from. That makes Reynolds start this weekend so important. The southpaw has been knocked around a fair amount this year giving up three home runs and sporting a 4.64 ERA, but he looked good last weekend going six innings against Tufts and only allowing two runs. His K/9 rate of 9.70 is up from last year, and his walks are way down as well. If he pitches like the ace Bates need him to be the Bobcats have a chance to shake up the East.

2. Jason Buco ’15 Outfielder (Colby)

Colby has flown under the radar so far because of their late Florida trip, but they posted a very nice record of 8-2 down south. They have their first games up north against Trinity in Hartford. Buco is the outfielder and two sport athlete who does it all for the Mules. He already has two home runs and three stolen bases to supplement his .514 OBP. He needs to have big games this weekend both at the plate and in the outfield. With the emergence of last week’s NESCAC Pitcher of the Week Scott Goldberg ’15 on the mound, the Mules are looking to surprise a Trinity team that can’t take anyone lightly this season. With Tufts playing a non-conference double header against Colby-Sawyer, the hierarchy of the East could either become very clear or extremely cloudy after this weekend.

Stock Report

Every Monday we will recap the weekend’s action by handing out our analysis in the form of a stock report. With the first weekend of action in the books, The ‘CAC regular season is officially underway.

Stock Up

1. Mother Nature- Nobody else had a bigger impact on this weekend’s games. Almost every weekend game was affected somehow with the rain precipitating (pun fully intended) starting times being changed and games shortened, though luckily only three games had to be postponed. Amherst and Hamilton moved the site of their series a good five hour drive south to Yaphank, New York on Long Island. They were unable to play the final game of their three game series, but a tip of the cap to the teams and athletic departments for finding an inventive way to play the other two games. Tufts and Bates only fit in the first game of their series which was moved from Bates to Tufts because of the weather causing Bates’ ‘home opener’ to become a bit of a misnomer. Bowdoin and Trinity managed to fit all three games in, but the final one was shortened to eight innings because of the rain. A glance at the forecast looks promising as this week will be filled with sun and temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The rain this weekend melted a lot of the snow and ice left on fields so by next weekend hopefully every home NESCAC field is ready to go.

2. Amherst- I was expecting Hamilton to steal at least one of their games this weekend (and it’s possible they would have if the third game had been played), but Amherst looked like a very strong team from top to bottom in the two games. Hamilton’s best chance to win was probably the first game with their ace Jjay Lane ’15 on the hill, and they managed to strike in the first against Amherst’s Fred Shepard ’14. After that the lefty Amherst native dominated going seven innings and striking out eight without allowing another run. Shepard has already thrown a no-hitter and is the owner of a not too shabby 0.93 ERA through three starts. The offense got to Lane for two runs in the first inning and added another in the sixth for a final score of 3-1. The second game was not nearly as competitive with Amherst tagging Hamilton’s Cole Dreyfuss ’16 for six runs in the second inning. Andrew Vandini ’16 and Mike Odenwaelder ’16 led the way with three hits each, Dylan Driscoll ’14 went seven scoreless striking out nine, and Amherst’s depth showed a little when leftfielder and number eight hitter Anthony Spina ’17 hit a solo shot in the third. Amherst has the big rivalry weekend coming up with Williams, and they should be confident knowing they are handing the ball to both Shepard and Driscoll again next weekend.

3. Harry Ridge ’16 Starting Pitcher (Bowdoin)- Ridge had stretches when he threw the ball very well last year as a freshman, but he has improved his consistency leaps and bounds through four starts. He doesn’t overpower you with his raw stuff with only 14 strikeouts so far, but Ridge does a great job forcing the issue with hitters, keeping them off balance, and preventing anything from being hit too hard. This weekend he shut down Trinity’s offense for six innings allowing only two hits and no runs as Bowdoin cruised in the first game of their doubleheader. Ridge’s performance has been especially critical because Bowdoin has had their three top starters from last season barely throw in 2014. Oliver Van Zant ’13 graduated, Christian Martin ’14 has yet to throw a pitch, and Henry Van Zant ’15 saw his first action this weekend in relief. His and Erik Jacobsen’s ’15 performance has helped Bowdoin off to a very good start despite all those absences.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury- We knew it was going to be tough sledding for Middlebury because of what they lost from their senior class and then the decision of Hunter Merryman ’15 and Dylan Sinnickson ’15 to not play this season in order to focus on basketball. Still, the Panthers have looked helpless at times so far including this weekend when Williams swept them with ease. Williams has a good offense, but they should not be putting up 18 and 20 runs against NESCAC teams. Middlebury is an extremely young team with only two seniors on the roster, and you have to feel bad but also be impressed with Alex Kelly’s ’14 play so far. The outfielder is hitting for a .422 average at the top of the lineup while also playing great defense in the outfield. Middlebury finished up their Arizona trip at 2-8 and will have to face a loaded Wesleyan team next weekend in Connecticut. It is likely to be a long season for the Panthers, but there are still plenty of positives able to be drawn from it.

2. Scott Huley ’15 Outfielder (Trinity)- A lot was expected out of Huley entering the season as Trinity had to replace multiple starters from last years team, and he has not been up to the task so far. He hasn’t been terrible with a .382 on-base percentage, but his .356 slugging percentage underlies how Trinity has been all season. Since hitting two doubles in Trinity’s second game against Denison, Huley has had only two extra base hits. Trinity as a team has been getting on base at a below average rate of .351, but their slugging percentage of .326 overall is abysmal. Nobody expected Huley to come out and show off explosive power given his frame, but his inability to hit doubles this year means he can’t be the middle of the lineup presence we expected him to be. Also, after pitching 18 innings with a respectable ERA, he is yet to take the mound this season despite Trinity having issues with their pitching. Why Manager Bryan Adamski hasn’t used him is unclear, and Huley’s value has suffered. He is still a player with a lot of talent, but little time to turn it around, just like Trinity as a whole.

3. Jeff Blout ’14 Starting Pitcher (Wesleyan)- Overshadowed by Wesleyan’s overall success thus far has been the disastrous pitching of Blout. His outing this weekend against Mitchell was his best of the season, but it still was far from dominant. While Blout only allowed one run in five innings, he had to pitch around four walks. On the season he has only 12 strikeouts to 11 walks which is an unacceptable ratio. Blout had a top four ERA in the NESCAC last season, and his 7.13 ERA this year is more than three times higher than his 2.06 ERA from 2013. The Wesleyan offense has been scary to pitch against for opposing teams, but the Cardinals are not going to give Amherst a serious challenge for the division crown if their pitching doesn’t pull it together. Blout has to find his stuff again because Wesleyan has nobody else who can replace him. Peter Rantz ’16 and Nick Cooney ’15 have been the most consistent pitchers, but neither of them are aces. Blout is the key for Wesleyan.

The King is Dead! Long Live the King!

Full Disclosure: I was not able to watch any of Amherst-Williams game on Friday night and only caught the end of the National Championship game because I was travelling. Highlights of the championship game can be found here. Highlights of the semifinal between Amherst and Williams can be found here. As such I can’t write an in-depth breakdown of the games this weekend. This post focuses instead on the bigger picture that emerges as we enter the basketball offseason.

An incredibly entertaining National Championship ended with a flourish that unfortunately left Williams on the short end of a great game. Michael Mayer’s putback of a Duncan Robinson shot with four seconds left put Williams up one before Wisconsin-Whitewater’s Quardell Young raced up the court for the winning layup with under a second left. Obviously it was a tough loss for Williams, but the Ephs’ can take solace in knowing how well they played both in the championship game and in the tournament overall. Their blowout victory Friday night over Amherst was shocking in its dominance even if some saw a Williams victory coming because of how they were playing entering the weekend. Williams’ victory over Amherst means they have taken the proverbial crown denoting the NESCAC’s top dog away, for now, from the Jeffs.

The Analogies

I thought of two analogies after Williams’ victory Friday night, but their imperfections were made even more glaring after the loss Saturday. Nevertheless, because I love extended analogies, here goes nothing. Allow me to indulge here and tease out the parallels between the Amherst-Williams rivalry for the last two years and medieval Europe. Amherst is led by King Toomey and supported by his feudal lords David Kalema, Tom Killian, and Connor Green. Williams is a rival house that enjoys considerable influence, but has been defeated many times. The leaders of Williams are Duke Taylor Epley and Earl Michael Mayer. They know that they need something else to overcome Amherst so they promise a foreigner, Baron Duncan Robinson, the crown if he gives Williams his support. The game Friday night was the final climactic battle where Williams vanquishes Amherst. Toomey is exiled because of his graduation and the new king Duncan Robinson claims lordship over the NESCAC basketball kingdom. By no means a perfect or exact analogy, but an entertaining one, at least to me.

A more relatable sports analogy to Friday night’s game is the SEC football championship game between Florida (Amherst) and Alabama (Williams) in 2009. The year before Florida won the SEC championship game before going on to win their second national championship in three years. In 2009, both teams returned undefeated entering the game. This time Alabama pulled away in the second half with a Tebow interception in the end zone putting any hope of a comeback to sleep. Alabama had broken through, winning that National Championship and then winning again in 2011 and 2012. Both teams were supremely talented, and entering the 2009 championship game many thought Tebow would be able to will his team to victory. Toomey is quarterback Tim Tebow as the team leader who gets all the press and accolades, David Kalema is wide receiver Percy Harvin as the quick and athletic play-maker, and Tom Killian is tight end Aaron Hernandez as the Swiss army knife capable of filling all sorts of roles. Duncan Robinson is running back Trent Richardson as the supremely talented freshman who helps put the team over the top, Taylor Epley is running back Mark Ingram as the veteran player who has the moxie and ability to make all the plays, and Michael Mayer is linebacker Rolando McClain as the leader in the middle that makes everything work. Here’s hoping that these comparisons, particularly in reference to Killian and McClain, only go so far as the field.

Saying Goodbye:

The 2014 class was loaded with multiple All-Americans and talented players at different positions and schools around the NESCAC. Still, any conversation about the 2014 class has to center on Aaron Toomey. Toomey’s final performance is a disappointing end to what has been an unbelievable career. He is quite simply everything you could want in a Division 3 point guard. He combines elite shooting, court vision, basketball IQ, ball handling and leadership. Entering this year, some argued that he was a tad overrated and Amherst wouldn’t be able to repeat their success because of how much Amherst had lost from the 2013 senior class. This season destroyed any notion that he could be considered overrated given his statistics and Amherst’s record. Toomey’s career was a masterpiece to watch, despite how it ended. There are no bigger shoes to be filled next season than his.

The depth of this senior class was of the highest caliber, and probably deserves its own post. Toomey’s teammates David Kalema and Tom Killian improved every year while at Amherst to become two of the best players in the league. Williams’ senior duo of Taylor Epley and Michael Mayer enjoyed enormous success all four years. Mayer will go down as a dominant center that had skill and size not often seen in Division 3. Middlebury’s class, led by Joey Kizel, helped elevate Middlebury’s program to even greater heights. Kizel was unfortunately overshadowed by Toomey for much of his career, but his penchant for making big shots and will to win made for a great career. Though Kizel headlined the group, center Jack Roberts developed into one of the league’s best post defenders, and swingman James Jensen provided high energy every time he was on the floor and often gamely tackled the opponent’s toughest defensive match-up. Bowdoin’s trio of Andrew Madlinger, Matt Mathias, and Grant White led the Polar Bears back to the NCAA tournament. Tufts’ Kwame Firempong and Bates’ Luke Matarazzo were scoring guards and underrated players throughout their careers. Conn College’s Matt Vadas was a scoring machine throughout his career, and his teammate center Mason Lopez enjoyed a great senior season. Though there is a ton of talent coming back next year around the league for what should be a very entertaining and wide-open season, the 2014 senior class was an exceptional one that will be greatly missed.

Ultimately, the Williams-Amherst rivalry defined the 2013-2014 NESCAC season. Of course there were many other storylines like Bowdoin’s first NCAA tourney bid since 2009, the rise of young teams like Colby and Trinity, and Middlebury’s rollercoaster ride. Yet all of that is secondary to what the two teams from Western Massachusetts accomplished. The teams combined to go 18-2 in NESCAC play, faced off for the NESCAC championship, and both made the Final Four in the NCAA’s. These are two of the best programs in all of Division 3, and they proved it again this year. The jobs that Coach Mike Maker and Coach David Hixon did this year were exceptional, and to their credit what we have come to expect. Williams ended up just short of the absolute goal of a national championship, but that doesn’t diminish what the two teams achieved this season.

Who Will Win the NCAA Semifinal?

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One Last Time

This post was written by Joe MacDonald, with substantial help and revisions from Adam Lamont.

It’s not often that two college basketball teams, from any division, meet four times in a single season. But that’s exactly what will transpire later tonight at 8:30 in Salem, Virginia, the site of the NCAA D-III Final Four. Amherst and Williams, the NESCAC’s two premier men’s basketball programs, will match up with a chance to play for a national title.

The History:

Over the past four seasons, Amherst and Williams have played 11 games. Each year, the schools schedule just one meeting in addition to their requisite conference game, but somehow these two seem to find one another come postseason play. Amherst has won eight of those 11 games, including the last seven and all three this season. The Lord Jeffs’ have outscored Williams by 5.5 points per game over that span, and this season have registered victories by 11, 12 and 11 points. The two regular season games were comfortable victories for Amherst, but the NESCAC championship game was close until Amherst pulled away at the end. To the Ephs’ credit, the only NCAA Tournament meeting went in Williams’ favor, 77-71, in the 2011 Elite Eight.

In that 2011 Tournament meeting, Williams’ Taylor Epley and Hayden Rooke-Ley played a total of 27 minutes, one more than Amherst’s Aaron Toomey’s 26. So besides Toomey, the players in this year’s rendition will be far different than those who met in 2011.

Combined, Amherst and Williams have won 11 of 14 NESCAC championships and three national titles, the most recent coming last year when Amherst garnered the crown. Over the past four years, the two schools have combined for seven 20-win seasons, going 197-32 (.860) overall. Since 2010, the Ephs and Jeffs have earned 14 All-Conference selections, one NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year, two NESCAC Rookie of the Years and three NESCAC Player of the Years. Both have extraordinary senior classes who have made this rivalry incredible to watch for the last four years. The two most storied programs in the NESCAC will be on the floor on the national stage tonight.

Amherst is two wins away from back-to-back championships

The Players:

The match ups in this game are ridiculous at every position. The amazing thing is that despite there being five senior starters among the two teams, it is likely none of them guard each other. From Amherst’s emerging freshman center David George against All-American Michael Mayer to Williams’ NESCAC Rookie of the Year Duncan Robinson against arguably the best perimeter defender in the NESCAC, Tom Killian, each match up holds intrigue.

Any discussion about Amherst over the past four seasons has dealt heavily with All-American point guard Aaron Toomey. Toomey is the program’s leading scorer with 2,030 points, more than 300 points ahead of second-place. Furthermore, Toomey has made more free throws and three-pointers than any Jeff in history. This season, Toomey has set career highs with 20.5 points per game and 6.4 assists per game, which ranks 10th nationally, as well as field goal percentage (47.2%) and three-point percentage (40.6%). For all those numbers his value extends much further as his ability to absolutely control the pace and rhythm of games is unmatched in D-III basketball. It’s hard to overstate the value of a senior captain who plays 34.5 minutes per game, and the amount of awards that Toomey has collected merely hint at his value. He is the back-to-back NESCAC Player of the Year, the reigning National Player of the Year, a two-time NABC first-team All-American, and former NESCAC Rookie of the Year. Toomey could be the best player in Jeffs history which is very impressive given the caliber of players Amherst has had over the years.

Toomey runs the show, but his supporting cast is excellent. Seniors David Kalema and Tom Killian have improved every year at Amherst to become vital cogs for the Jeffs. Kalema isn’t the floor general Toomey is, but he works as a perfect complement as a slasher and three point shooter averaging 12.7 points per game. Meanwhile, if the NESCAC had a Most Improved Player award, senior Tom Killian would be one of the front runners. The rangy swingman has added muscle to his frame to help him finish at the rim, and he is another above average three-point shooter, a crucial component of Amherst’s offense. The two seniors most valuable contributions might actually be on the defensive end. They guard the best offensive threats the other team has as well as generating steals and easy buckets that change the flow of games in a hurry.

The other two important players for Amherst are Connor Green and David George. Green is a streaky scorer who makes Amherst unstoppable when he is playing well, but he could also throw up a 1-10 shooting night. George is the more intriguing player in this game as he was the backup center this year until sophomore Ben Pollack went down with a season-ending injury. Since then George has come into his own offensively and defensively. His potential is enormous on both ends, but for this game his most important contributions will come on defense.

On the other side, Williams trots out its own All-American, center Michael Mayer. Mayer began his career behind a couple of nationally-recognized big men, and was overshadowed by classmates Epley and Rooke-Ley as a freshman. As a sophomore, Mayer played big minutes, but still only started in two games. But ever since the start of the 2012 season, Mayer has become one of the best big men in D-III. Mayer racked up 17.5 points per game and 8.8 rebounds per game as a junior, when he earned D3Hoops.com Third-Team All-American honors, and improved those numbers to 18.2 and 8.9 this season. Mayer is special, too, because he combines great passing (2.3 assists per game between 2012-14) with unstoppable post moves.

Mayer’s classmate, Epley, has been a standout since day one for the Ephs, registering 1,433 points (ninth in program history) in his career. During their freshman season, it appeared that Epley and Rooke-Ley would lead the Ephs for years to come, but injuries have derailed Rooke-Ley’s career to the extent that he’s played just 42 games over the last three years, and missed all of 2012-13 because of injury, for which he was awarded a medical red shirt. When he’s been healthy this season, Rooke-Ley has shown why he’s so dangerous. A 50 percent shooter, the guard averaged 11.1 points per game and 2.0 assists, and he has been a great lift coming off the bench in the second half of this season. The player who sometimes gets lost in the shuffle for Williams is junior guard Daniel Wohl, a more defense first presence who will be matched up with Kalema when he is in the game, but could see limited minutes in this game because of how well both point guards Rooke-Ley and Mike Greenman have been playing.

The Ephs would not be where they are today, despite the level of experience on their roster, without their freshman class headlined by NESCAC Rookie of the Year Robinson. The 6’7” swing man has point guard handles but power forward size. He’s incredibly efficient (55 FG%, 44.6 3PT%) and fills up the stat sheet almost every night (6.7 rebounds per game, 1.9 assists per game, 1.2 blocks per game). He’s been showered with praise by analysts and coaches around the league, and odds are he finishes his career with at least one NESCAC Player of the Year award. The other freshman are point guard Mike Greenman and shooting guard Dan Aronowitz. Greenman has come into his own since injuries to Rooke-Ley provided an opportunity earlier in the season. The diminutive point guard has earned a reputation for his fearlessness hitting big shots for the Ephs in the NESCAC tournament. Aronowitz has seen his minutes squeezed because of others’ return from injuries, but was a starter for some games earlier in the year.

The Match Up:
With Amherst having topped Williams by double digits in every meeting this year, the odds have to be in the Jeffs’ favor. Still, Williams is playing its best basketball all season with an offense that has been unstoppable in the tournament. It’s been mostly the supporting casts doing the heavy lifting for both teams in their head-to-head games so far this season. Toomey has averaged 12.3 points per game in the three meetings this season. Robinson scored 12 and 9 before exploding for 26 in the NESCAC championship in a losing effort. Mayer has averaged 17.3 points, but only tallied 10 in the NESCAC title game. Epley has had the most curious season of all the Ephs in the rivalry, scoring 15 and 16 but also notching a goose egg on January 22nd.

How can Williams finally overcome Amherst?

In short, get the ball out of Toomey’s hands early, which is, of course, easier said than done. Despite not putting up big points in the three meetings this season, Toomey has tallied double digit assists twice. The Ephs like to switch up defenses throughout the game, which could backfire if they allow Toomey to penetrate the zone and kick to the Jeffs’ shooters. When in man-to-man, guards Greenman, Daniel Wohl and Rooke-Ley need to focus on the defensive end and pressure Toomey beyond the three-point line without getting beat off the dribble. The majority of the Ephs’ scoring should fall to the front court between Mayer, Robinson and Epley. The Ephs should look to run the offense through Mayer, both on the block and at the elbow. He has to attack early to try to get George into foul trouble because Pollack’s injury robs Amherst of their frontcourt depth. If George gets into foul trouble, Amherst’s Joseph Mussachia or whoever comes in to guard Mayer will need constant help, so Mayer will be able to find Epley and Robinson for open shots. As a team, the Jeffs hit 15 threes in the NESCAC championship game, and shot right around 50 percent from the field over the three meetings. Don’t expect the moment to get to Amherst and for them to stop launching and making threes at a prolific rate. Bottom line, Williams’ defense especially on the perimeter has to be better.

Prediction: Amherst 89, Williams 85 (OT)

Both of these teams are offensive-minded, which was obvious in the NESCAC title game when the squads combined for 175 points. Beating a team as talented as Williams four times in a row is really hard, but you have to how Amherst plays against Williams, no matter how much either side schemes to stop the other. I see Williams keeping it closer than in previous meetings, but Toomey and the reigning champs will not be denied, and will move on to the title game on Saturday.

Amherst Season Preview

Amherst (27-13, 9-3 in 2013)

What They Lost:

There is one major difference between this year’s team and the 2013 version that had a program-record 27 victories and won the NESCAC championship; 1B/DH/P Bob Cook posted a NESCAC-leading 0.95 ERA on his way to earning Pitcher of the Year honors in 2013 (a year after being named NESCAC Player of the Year) and still found time to hit .368/.487/.484 in 76 at bats, but this year will be on the bench as an assistant coach. Adding to the void is the loss of Nolan Stewart, the team’s top qualified hitter from 2013. However, Amherst is one of few squads in the NESCAC with the bevy of talent to replace such dynamic players.

2014 MVP: P/OF Mike Odenwaelder ’16

Odenwaelder garnered Rookie of the Year honors last season by slashing .331/.538/.383. It’s that middle number that really stands out. His .538 slugging was good for third in the NESCAC last season, and three bombs tied him for third in the league, as well. Odenwaelder manned rightfield for most of 2013, and should continue to anchor an offense that was neck-and-neck atop the NESCAC with Wesleyan last season in almost every offensive category. Odenwaelder brings speed as well. He tallied 10 stolen bases last year and five triples. And just in case your jaw hasn’t hit the floor yet, Odenwaelder has been competing for a spot in the starting rotation, in which case he would likely move to DH, allowing a tandem of Alex Hero ’14, Jonathan Ramirez ’16 and Tyler Jacobs ’15, in his return from injury, to man the outfield.

2014 Pitcher of the Year: Dylan Driscoll ’14

Cook is out, but that doesn’t mean this staff is without the talent necessary to capture another NESCAC crown. Captain Dylan Driscoll fronts the rotation. Driscoll posted a 2.76 ERA last season and an absurd 34:4 K:BB ratio, good for eighth in the nation, while his 0.58 BB/9 ratio was good for fourth in all of Division-III. Driscoll tossed one shutout and two complete games in his nine starts last year, and should be one of the league’s most durable hurlers, as he was one of three pitchers to surpass the 60 IP threshold in 2013.

Season Outlook:

Amherst returns nine hitters who played at least 19 games last season. All but one hit .304 or better. Rookie of the Year Mike Odenwaelder should improve, Defensive Player of the Year Taiki Kasuga ’14 will continue to vacuum up everything hit his way at shortstop, and Andrew Vandini ’16, who posted the third-best average in NESCAC games last season, will continue to quietly produce. Senior centerfielder and three-year starter Alex Hero should not be overlooked, too. Hero started 24 games and triple-slashed .333/.475/.352 while stealing 12 bases, and will again be in the running for best surname in the NESCAC. Leftfielder Jonathan Ramirez ’16 posted a Votto-like .430 OBP in 2013, and the versatile Brendon Hardin ’15 hit .304/.365/.372, while swiping 13 bags, one less than his teammate, Kasuga. Hardin will likely return to 2B after playing outfield for most of last season. Connor Gunn ’16 and David Cunningham ’16 both garnered at bats behind the dish last year. Gunn started 37 games on his way to batting .328. Last but not least, corner infielder Eric West ’15 got 20 starts last year and slashed .364/.530/.434, leading the Jeffs in slugging. Additionally, OF Tyler Jacobs ’15 returns after missing all of 2013 due to injury. Jacobs hit .244 his freshman season and has a shot to start in 2014.

As for the pitching staff, losing Bob Cook hurts, but his younger brother John Cook ’15 will get the first chance to lock down the third spot in the Jeffs rotation behind the formidable 1-2 of Driscoll and Frank Shepard ’14. While Cook started six games and recorded a 4.29 ERA, Driscoll and Shepard started nine and 10 games, respectively, and were each dominant with ERAs hovering around 3.00. Eric Kotin ’14 returns as the team’s best combination of effectiveness and reliability in the bullpen. Kotin tossed 24.0 innings in relief and posted a 3.38 ERA in 2013. The Jeffs’ other top bullpen arms graduated from last year, but a deep first-year class of hurlers could immediately bolster the Amherst pen.

All told, Amherst will once again be in contention for a NESCAC title.