Category: Men’s Basketball

On the Road Again: Weekend Preview 1/23

The NESCAC schedule means that this is the weekend when teams play their usual travel partner. Because they have played all the same teams in conference thus far, we should have a good idea on how each team matches up with their opponent.

A big theme of the weekend is road favorites trying to avoid losing to home teams. The combined conference records of home teams this weekend is 5-12 while away teams are a combined 13-6. And remember that those records come against the same teams. Colby is the only home team with a winning record at 3-1 and are also the only home team that can be considered a favorite going into tomorrow. Winning on the road is not easy, but most gyms in the NESCAC do not offer a significant advantage as overall teams are 9-11 on the road this season.

Three Players to Watch

1. Power Forward Rashid Epps ’16 (Wesleyan): A tough start for Wesleyan in conference is in part because of Epps not producing. The junior has seen his playing time squeezed somewhat and he even got dropped from the starting lineup against Middebury. Epps has never been the primary scorer for Wesleyan, but the emergence of Joseph Kuo ’17 has pushed him into the third or fourth role offensively. However, the Cardinals are not a particularly dynamic offensive team, and Epps is far and away their most efficient scorer. Some of that efficiency is because he scores a lot on second chance points, but even last year when he was more of a focal point on offense, he shot 55 percent from the field. He is shooting one less shot per game and has averaged only 5.0 shots per game over the past five games. Wesleyan cannot afford to lose at Conn College. Make no mistake, even though the Camels are 0-4 in conference, they are playing decently and will beat somebody soon. They need to avoid taking too many threes and get Epps involved early.

2. Point Guard Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst): Though Berman has still yet to start a game for the Jeffs, more often than not he, rather than Jayde Dawson ’18, ends up being on the court to finish games. Dawson continues to show flashes of excellence, but Coach Dave Hixon does not trust him as a point guard. After two early turnovers, Dawson went to the bench midway through the first half and never returned. Berman is pass-first almost to a fault, but he came up huge down the stretch for Amherst against Williams scoring seven points. I know seven points might not sound like much, but before Wednesday, Berman had scored eight points total since the Christmas break despite playing significant minutes in every game. Seven points is a major breakthrough for him. Berman is not going to shoot from the outside (one made three all season), but he showed he can get into the lane and be a threat to score. That is really all he needs to be since he has proven that he is an excellent passer. We don’t know whether Hixon will put Dawson back in the starting lineup or commit to Berman completely, but at this point it appears Berman is the primary point guard for Amherst.

3. Forward Dan Aronowitz ’17 (Williams): I got to watch Aronowitz in person last Friday when Williams visited Bowdoin, and he was the only reason the halftime score wasn’t 50-10 Bowdoin. And it wasn’t just his 13 points at half that stood out but the different ways he was able to affect the game on both ends. Even though webcasts around the NESCAC are now very good, it is hard to understand how a player really works unless you see them in person, especially if you are sitting courtside. The sophomore is undersized playing a lot of minutes at power forward, but he has held up on the defensive end. He is the second option right now on offense and is shooting 39.7 percent from three for the year. The injury to Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 could have CRUSHED Williams, but they are treading water right now without him. Because of improvements from Aronowitz and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 amongst others, Williams is becoming that team nobody wants to play.

Three Games to Watch

 3. Saturday 3:00 PM: Bowdoin (12-4, 3-1) at Colby (11-6, 3-1)

A matchup of teams 3-1 in conference and the CBB rivalry makes this a wonderful undercard for the weekend. However, both teams’ conference records are inflated a bit by having already played Hamilton and Conn College, objectively the two worst teams in the NESCAC. Bowdoin’s win over Williams was a very good one, but since the Ephs were without Rooke-Ley, it still carries a little asterisk. The winner of this game will need only a couple more wins before they can think about a home NESCAC tournament game while the loser falls back to the pack with the toughest conference opponents still ahead of them.

John Swords '15 and Chris Hudnut '16 will clash once again this weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 and Chris Hudnut ’16 will clash once again this weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

The tough news for Bowdoin is that Keegan Pieri ’15 suffered his second concussion of the season on Wednesday night and is out for the foreseeable future. Concussions are obviously not something to mess around with and we wish Keegan the best of luck dealing with them. On the court, he is a massive loss given he is the second leading scorer and rebounder on the Polar Bears. John Swords ’15 will need to step up and be an offensive threat in the middle, something that he has not been for long stretches this season. Coach Tim Gilbride could fill Pieri’s place in the starting lineup in a couple of different ways including going small with guard Jake Donnelly ’16. Liam Farley ’18 should see an uptick in minutes because of the injury as well.

In the first game between these two teams Colby outplayed Bowdoin in the second half and managed to run away with it at the end. Bowdoin was simply unable to buy a basket from the outside going 2-15 from three. Bryan Hurley ’15 scored only two points in the game, but he is looking much more comfortable of late and has made multiple three pointers in each of his past five games. Bowdoin will have to adjust quickly to playing without Pieri who was the most capable guy on the team at creating his own shot.

For Colby, they know Chris Hudnut ’16 and Luke Westman ’16 will produce so it comes down to their other guys. Ryan Jann ’16 is a smooth shooter who makes one shot a game that you have no idea how he did it. Sam Willson ’16 played one of his worst games of the season the first time around, but he has been fantastic in conference averaging 14.0 PPG. The Mules need to also play Bowdoin to a standstill on the boards in order to keep the Polar Bears from getting easy buckets. These are two teams very familiar with each other so expect a close game.

2. Saturday 3:00 PM: Trinity (13-5, 3-1) at Amherst (12-4, 2-2)

Disregard the fact that Trinity lost a mid-week game once again to an opponent they should have beat while Amherst pulled out a big win against Williams in overtime. This game is almost a tossup.

The talent on the Amherst roster is undeniable, but for the first time in a long time Dave Hixon is unsure on how all the pieces best fit together. Nine players are averaging more than 10 minutes for Amherst. The last time the roster was so unsettled was the 2009-2010 season when Amherst had 11 players average more than 10 minutes per game (injuries to key players help explain the high number) as the Jeffs struggled to a 14-11 record, including 3-6 in conference. Connor Green ’16 is getting close to putting his stamp on this team as a leader with a 30-point performance Wednesday. The Jeffs need him to become their go-to guy, someone they can rely on to get easy offense. If that happens all the talent behind him can fall into manageable roles: e.g. David George ’17 as shot-blocker and rebounder, Jeff Racy ’17 as sniper from three, and Johnny McCarthy ’18 as a Swiss Army knife.

At this point everyone knows that Trinity is extremely talented defensively and relatively inept offensively. They can thank their defense for their 3-1 start in the NESCAC. Trinity is yet to have a NESCAC opponent score more than 60 points against them in regulation. On the other end, the polite way of putting it is that the Bantams are balanced, but a more realistic outlook is that they simply lack players capable of creating and making their own shots beyond, occasionally, Jaquann Starks ’16. Guys like Alex Conaway ’15, Shay Ajayi ’16, and George Papadeas ’15 are all capable of having good games, but they just are not reliant enough. The Bantams will want to make this game ugly, and there is a good chance they will succeed in doing just that against an Amherst team that tends to play to its competition.

1. Saturday 3:00 PM: Tufts (8-7, 3-0) at Bates (11-4, 1-2)

The road was not kind to Bates last weekend as they fell to Trinity and Amherst. Now they return to the comfy confines of Alumni Gym where five of their final seven conference games are at home. In fact, Bates’ only conference road games remaining are at Colby and Bowdoin so the Bobcats will not leave the state of Maine for the rest of the regular season.

Meanwhile Tufts continues to look better and better as we get further into conference play. Their win Thursday over UMass-Boston 80-67 saw them overcome 16 turnovers and four of their five starters scoring five points or less. Of course, it helps when your fifth starter, Hunter Sabety ’17 goes 9-9 shooting for 24 points. Even though Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18 have started recent games, Vincent Pace ’18 and Tarik Smith ’17 are the guys who do most of the backcourt scoring. The Jumbos are now above .500 for the first time all season. A win at Bates would cement their place at the top of the league with a good chance at going 7-0 before they play Williams in February.

Defensively Bates should match up well with Tufts because the Delpeche brothers can slow down Sabety and Tom Palleschi ’16. The Bobcats have to find a more consistent rhythm on offense, as they are averaging a NESCAC low 56.3 PPG in conference. Graham Safford ’15 has seen his scoring take a dive, and over on the D3Boards there are unsubstantiated rumors that he is playing injured. Safford is still playing heavy minutes and his backups, Jerome Darling ’17 and Justin Zukowski ’18, have played very sparingly. Safford has to be at or near his best for Bates who should be playing in front of a large home crowd tomorrow.

The Fantasy Continues: Week 2

We’re back with another edition of the fantasy basketball report. As a reminder, Lin and Tonic (Joe) led after one week, 5-3. Despite my strategy to draft big men early, I ended up with a commanding lead in assists and a slight advantage in steals and a major deficit in rebounds and blocks after Week 1, so I made the decision to drop the injured Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 in favor of Ed Ogundeko ’17, who played really well in the first week of conference play. I then decided to move Ogundeko into my starting lineup over Zuri Pavlin ’17, who only had one conference game this weekend. In the back court I moved Jaquann Starks ’16 into the lineup for Joseph Lin ’15. I never should have doubted Lin, who had 43 points, 18 assists and six steals on the weekend. Whoops…

Adam shook up his lineup a bit, too, but didn’t make any roster changes, so our lineups going into the weekend looked like this:

Lord of the ‘CAC (Adam) Lin and Tonic (Joe)
POS. Player Player
Guard G. Safford J. Starks
Guard D. Wohl L. Hausman
Guard J. McCarthy L. Westman
Forward J. Swords C. Hudnut
Forward D. Sinnickson E. Ogundeko
Forward A. Santos H. Merryman
Forward Mar. Delpeche D. George
Bench J. Brown Z. Pavlin
Bench S. Ajayi H. Sabety
Bench R. Epps J. Lin

First we’ll show you the scoresheet for Week 2 alone. Notice that scoring was way, way down from Week 1. Also, just looking at who we decided not to start, and I’ve already mentioned my mistake to bench Lin, but Adam really could have benefited from Jake Brown’s ’17 19 assists. Of course the tradeoff would have been only getting seven points and six boards. On the other side, having Hunter Sabety ’17 in the lineup would have been pretty helpful. After missing the conference opener against Middlebury last weekend, Sabety came back strong against Amherst and Trinity, scoring 28 on 14-21 shooting (66.7 percent) with eight rebounds and four blocks.

Category Lord of the ‘CAC (Adam) Lin and Tonic (Joe)
Points 139 146
Assists 25 25
Rebounds 67 99
Steals 16 4
Blocks 14 9
FT% 74.4% (32/43) 72.8% (59/81)
FG% 40.9% (56/137) 48.8% (63/129)
3PT Made 15 6

Just by glancing at the table above, it’s clear that I was able to maintain my leads in points and assists and the percentage categories, while also closing the gap in rebounds, so I should be pretty happy.

HausmanShooting
Lucas Hausman ’16 has increased his scoring by 7.7 points per game this season, and poured in 49 points for Joe’s Lin and Tonic squad this past weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics and CIPhotography.com)

 

Unfortunately steals, blocks and 3PT made are quickly slipping out of reach. Take a look now at the composite standings.

Category Lord of the ‘CAC Lin and Tonic Leader
Points 352 399 Joe
Assists 47 76 Joe
Rebounds 171 168 Adam
Steals 29 22 Adam
Blocks 33 15 Adam
FT% 70.5% (79/112) 77.1% (138/179) Joe
FG% 49.1% (132/269) 50.5% (147/291) Joe
3PT Made 33 12 Adam

Overall score: Tied 4-4

Power Rankings 1/21

Currently at seven in our ranks, Williams can move up starting tonight with a non-conference matchup at Amherst. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Currently at seven in our ranks, Williams can move up starting tonight with a non-conference matchup at Amherst. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The results this past week have brought forth much change in this edition of the power rankings. Teams we once thought were falling have started to find a groove, and teams that once looked great are beginning to slip. While only two or three games separate this weeks rankings from last’s, the conference action this week sent the league into upheaval.

1. Middlebury (12-2, 2-2) Last week: 3

At the start of the conference season Middlebury was expected to be at the top and a couple months in they have done enough to regain the top spot. Right now they are on a four-game winning streak during which Dylan Sinnickson ’16 has averaged 16.0 points per game and the team as a whole has averaged 89.0 points. But what has been underrated so far has been Middlebury’s defense. Opponents are averaging 62.2 points per game, but they also get more chances against the fast-paced Panthers. NCAA.com D-III hoops statistics were last updated on Monday, but at that time Middlebury’s opponents’ field goal percentage was tops in the nation and the Panthers had the 11th-best scoring margin in D-III. The grind for the Panthers comes at the end of the season, and as we know that a lot can change in a week in the NESCAC. As of right now, Middlebury has found a groove that looks sustainable

2. Amherst (11-4, 2-2) Last week: 4

The Lord Jeffs went 1-1 this week but remain ranked in my top three. A solid offense and a solid defense is obviously key, but what makes Amherst appealing is their winning culture. They’ve been here before. David Hixon’s experience and the reputation of his team’s to get better as the year goes on (Amherst won 24-straight to win the NCAA title in 2013 and 20 out of 21 before losing to Williams in the semifinals last year) earns the Lord Jeffs the benefit of the doubt. Despite a loss to Tufts, which seems to be happening to every top team, the Lord Jeffs are getting good production off the bench especially from G Jeff Racy ’17, who leads the league in three point field goals made in conference games.

3. Trinity (13-4, 3-1) Last week: 2

Winning a double OT thriller 71-69 against Williams and holding off a late Bates run gives Trinity the invaluable experience in close games come playoff time. But the Bantams won’t see the top spot in my ranks just yet. After an offensive breakout earlier in the season, the Bantams have cooled off and are ninth in points per NESCAC game.

4. Bates (11-4, 1-2) Last week: 1

The Bobcats had a difficult couple of games this past week; games that give us a better sense of who they really are. While Graham Safford ’15, who has been an integral part in the team’s success, did rest against UMPI, he and his squad were unable to get even one conference win against Amherst and Trinity. Is another late season slide in the works for Bates, or can they look to bounce back quickly against a Tufts team that has played very well as of late? While it has only been a couple of games, this week proved that the Bobcats need their entire starting five to contribute if they are going to beat the NESCAC’s elite squads.

5. Bowdoin (11-4, 3-1) Last week: 8

With the Polar Bears playing their last four games against conference opponents, they are now 3-1 in NESCAC play, tying them for first in the league standings. While a 3-1 record puts them in a good spot right now, two of those W’s came against struggling Hamilton and Conn. College teams. Don’t look now, but Bowdoin’s offense seems to be streaking, averaging 73.8 points per game in conference play. With Trinity and Middlebury among those still left to play, it will be interesting to see how Bowdoin stacks up against some of the league’s best defenses.

6. Tufts (7-7, 3-0) Last week: 11

The Jumbos, a team that was not high on my rankings last week, has proven me wrong by beating Middlebury, Amherst and Trinity in three consecutive games. Former starting PG-turned-sixth man Tarik Smith ’17 has played a huge role in their streak, shooting lights out, as well as in the clutch, hitting some big free throws against Trinity. Yes, they are 3-0 in the conference, and yes, Tufts has beaten three of the top teams in the league, but those are only three games, lets not start crowning them league champs. They are still 7-7 overall, which probably eliminates them from contending for an NCAA at-large bid already. This recent influx of offense, scoring 80+ points in four of their last six games, is bound to recede, but hey, maybe they’ve found something special this year.

7. Williams (11-5, 2-2) Last week: 5

Williams sits middle of the pack but has the pieces to get hot at any time. Recently, the Ephs played Trinity, Amherst, Colby and Bowdoin, a four-game stretch that epitomized their inability to get a consistent level of play. While Trinity and Amherst are similar, so are Colby and Bowdoin, and the Ephs were only able to win one of each. That being said, Daniel Wohl ’15 has been lights out offensively, averaging 23.2 points per game in-conference. Williams has the talent and are on the brink of finding their groove.

8. Colby (11-6, 3-1) Last week: 7

Colby is in a similar situation as Bowdoin, beating middle-of-the-road conference teams to give them a strong conference record. Chris Hudnut ’16 has been a huge factor in both scoring as well as rebounding the basketball (22.5 PPG and 11.5 RPG in-conference), which has helped the Mules get off to this fast start within the NESCAC. Colby has tallied the most points per game in-conference, but Wesleyan was the only opponent that is among the top half of the league in defensive scoring. We’ll know if Colby is for real after they go through the gauntlet of Bowdoin, Amherst and Trinity.

9. Wesleyan (12-5, 1-2) Last week: 6

Wesleyan is a team that looked promising early on has had a tough couple of games against Amherst and Middlebury. In both losses the offense struggled, scoring only 46 and 60 points, respectively. Their high-powered three point shooting was non-existent, while frequent turnovers halted any offensive flow. What a shame for a team that got off to an unprecedented start this season, winning 10 games faster than any team in program history. Facing Conn, Bates and Tufts in the next three games, Wesleyan needs to rediscover their offensive production.

10. Conn College (7-8, 0-3) Last week: 10

Conn is in a similar position to Hamilton, losing their last four games. Statistically ranked tenth offensively and eighth defensively in NESCAC games, the playoffs seem unlikely for the Camels. It might be time to adopt the spoiler role for the Camels. Wesleyan, Tufts and Bates are their next three opponents, and they can disrupt the league with every conference win they get.

11. Hamilton (10-6, 0-4) Last week: 9

Nothing seems to be going right for the Continentals, especially within the last four games. In these four NESCAC games, Hamilton has failed to get a win. Starting the season 7-0 in all non-conference games says one of two things; the NESCAC is much higher quality basketball than the upstate New York teams, or Hamilton’s game has lost its touch. I think it’s safe to say that both previous statements hold some amount of truth. While the playoffs are a pipe dream right now, don’t count Hamilton out to play spoiler against some “on the cusp” teams late in the season.

Appearances Can Be Deceiving: Stock Report 1/20

Tufts is the best team in the league, Bates is in danger of the same free fall as last year, and Wesleyan might be good, but they can’t compete with the NESCAC’s best.

All of these arguments could be made after this weekend, but could also also look foolish in another week. Consider this: at this point last week Middlebury was in the process of being exposed as soft. The Panthers responded with a 2-0 weekend, including the best half played by any NESCAC team this season in the first half against Wesleyan on Friday night. We still do not know much about how the league is going to shake out.

What is clear is that all of the chaos has hurt the NESCAC’s reputation nationally. For the first time since 2002, no NESCAC team was in the D3Hoops Top 25 released on Monday. Amherst and Trinity received a couple of votes each, but it will take a team stringing together a couple of weeks without losing before someone will claw back into the poll. The chances of multiple NESCAC teams making the tournament continue to fade as the committee sees the wide-openness as mediocrity.

Stock Up

Hard Non-Conference Schedules: Colby and Tufts entered conference play with a combined record of 11-12, but so far the two are 6-1 in conference play, with the Jumbos the most impressive team thus far in NESCAC play. Both coaches, Damien Strahorn for Colby and Bob Sheldon for Tufts, went out of their way to schedule hard teams out of conference. The combined records of the teams Colby and Tufts lost to is 126-52 (.710 winning percentage), and that record includes a 4-10 Maine-Farmington team which Colby lost to without Chris Hudnut ’16. Both teams now have turned the corner and for now are at the top of the league standings. Tufts in particular looked poised down the stretch against Trinity after losing a number of close games early in the season. Keep in mind that this stock is only up in the short term. The hard early schedule could come back to hurt both teams. Unless either team wins out in the regular season and wins a game or two in the NESCAC tournament, their chances of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament remains slim.

Class of 2016: Two weeks ago we noted how the current senior class could end with only two players crossing the 1,000 point mark. Last week saw two current juniors, Chris Hudnut ’16 (Colby) and Connor Green ’16 (Amherst) cross the same mark.

Chris Hudnut '16 (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)
Hudnut earned his second Player of the Week honor of the season by averaging 22.5 points and 11.0 rebounds in two conference games this week. (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)

Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates) has 794 points currently and looks like a lock to reach 1,000 points. A recent explosion in points from Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin) means that with 630 points right now, he appears likely to cross the mark as well. Meanwhile, Luke Westman ’16 (Colby) is averaging 14.0 PPG while shooting an UNREAL 74.8 percent from the field. Westman never shoots from outside, but even still to shoot that well around the rim is exceptional, especially for a guard. Trinity is powered by their duo of Shay Ajayi ’16 and Jaquann Starks ’16. The junior class is not as deep or as star studded as the 2014 or possibly 2017 class, but it’s not far off, either.

Point Guard Tarik Smith ’17 (Tufts): A lot of different players have elevated their play in conference for the Jumbos, but Smith has unquestionably had the biggest impact. In three conference games Smith is averaging 17.3 PPG on the absurd shooting percentage slashline of 68.4/83.3/95.5. He scored nine points in the second half against Trinity, including the game sealing free throws in the waning seconds. However, big questions remain. First, there is zero percent chance Smith continues to shoot this well from deep and at the charity stripe so his efficiency is sure to go down. Second, this scoring binge is coming out of nowhere. In non-conference play Smith averaged 6.0 PPG and reached double digits only twice. Finally, Smith is only averaging one turnover per game during this stretch but is averaging over two per game on the year. But note that before conference play began, Smith had started all 11 games at the point for the Jumbos, while he has come off the bench in each NESCAC game so far. There is a chance that Smith moving out of the starting lineup has taken pressure off of him. More likely, Smith played a great three games, but regardless his play is representative of a wider trend for Tufts.

Stock Down

Traditional Powers: The Big Three of the NESCAC (Williams, Amherst, and Middlebury) are each sitting in the middle of the pack at 2-2. All three lost huge senior classes, but that does not fully explain how far back to the pack they have fallen. Consider that since 2001-2002 season, one of those three won the NESCAC regular season crown by going either undefeated or having only one loss. Since Middlebury still has to play Amherst and Williams, it is possible that all three finish with at least three losses. All three teams are more than talented enough to win the NESCAC tournament, but their rosters are not as flawless as in years past.

Wesleyan: As someone who was in the front row of the Wesleyan bandwagon, this was a very hard week. First the Cardinals went up to Amherst in a non-conference game and forgot how to shoot from deep in the process of a 21-point loss. Then after going up early in the first half against Middlebury 14-13, Wesleyan let up a 38-10 run by the Panthers to go into the half down 27 points. Their normally stout defense was unable to find a way to slow down any aspect of the Middlebury attack. Things got out of control quickly as the home Panthers just got in an offensive roll. Sixteen turnovers, with each starter having at least two, also was not helpful.

Wesleyan's Joseph Kuo '17 can't stop this finish from Matt Daley '16. (Courtesy of Michael O'Hara, Middlebury Campus)
Wesleyan’s Joseph Kuo ’17 can’t stop this finish from Matt Daley ’16. (Courtesy of Michael O’Hara, Middlebury Campus)

Now Wesleyan is 1-2 in conference, and because of their schedule, they have to go on the road for five of their final seven conference games. The Cardinals just rebounded with a nice win last night over Baruch, but they now face an uphill battle in conference play.

Point Guard Graham Safford ’15 (Bates): Though a bit simplistic, as Safford goes, so go the Bobcats. Last Tuesday in order to keep him rested, Bates coach Jon Furbush did not play Safford at all, but the results this weekend were subpar. Safford scored 12.0 PPG on only 26 percent shooting, and he did not make a single two-point field goal against Trinity. Not coincidentally, Bates went 0-2 against Trinity and Amherst. Those are two very hard road games, but Tufts also went 2-0 as Bates’ road partner this weekend. The Bobcats need their leading man to figure out how to avoid another late season slide. Last season Safford had a similar falloff with his overall points per game 4.4 higher than his conference average while his shooting percentage plummeted at the same time. Keeping him fresh is crucial, and Bates might need to rely on Billy Selmon ’15 to become the primary ball handler for short stretches.

Caution! Potential for Chaos: Weekend Preview 1/16

We are predicting (even hoping) that this weekend is the one that officially throws the league into chaos. There is a very good chance that after this weekend not a single team will be undefeated in conference. Bates, Trinity, Colby and Tufts are the four teams still unbeaten. Bates plays Trinity tonight while the Jumbos head to Hartford for a matchup with Trinity on Saturday. Bates and Tufts both play Amherst in their other game this weekend. Meanwhile, Colby plays Hamilton and Williams at home. While the Mules looked good last weekend, we can’t call them an elite team just yet and Williams presents a big challenge for them. In almost every game this weekend there is a good case to be made for either team winning.

Three Players to Watch

1. Forward Tom Palleschi ’17 (Tufts): An injury to fellow big man Hunter Sabety ’17 for the Middlebury game contributed to Palleschi scoring 18 points on 8-11 shooting as the Jumbos sprung a big upset on Middlebury. Well, the term “upset” is contingent on the idea that Tufts early season struggles are unfixable. Sabety’s status for this weekend is still unclear, and Tufts has to go on the road and play Amherst and Trinity. If Sabety is out then Palleschi will once again be the focal point of the offense. After an uneven start, he is now averaging over 10.0 points per game. He is tough to guard because he has a very good mid range shot but can also go into the post and get buckets from there.

2. Guard Jake Brown ’17 (Middlebury): Last week Bates coach Jon Furbush made a bold tactical decision to have one of the Delpeche brothers guard Brown. Brown was goaded to shoot from the outside and had no way of getting into the lane and distributing. He finished the game with nine points, but he went 1-7 from deep. I would not expect Wesleyan to put Joseph Kuo ’17 on Brown, but whoever does guard him will give Brown all the space he wants to shoot. Brown knows that he does not have to be a scorer either. On Tuesday he went 0-5 from the field, but still had a good game because he passed out nine assists. Expect him to pass up outside shots and just try to get into the lane time and time again.

3. Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates): Another huge weekend for Bates as they go on the road to play Amherst and Trinity. Graham Safford ’15 is the leader for the Bobcats, but Boornazian is the player who makes them special if he plays well. He averages 14.2 PPG, but that comes on only 38.9 percent shooting. His importance is derived in large part from his ability to guard positions 2-4. Boornazian slowed down Dylan Sinnickson ’15 when he guarded him last week, and he will have a similar task against either Johnny McCarthy ’18 or newly minted 1,000 point scorer Connor Green ’16. Boornazian needs two stellar performances if Bates is going to pull out two tough road victories.

Three Games to Watch

1. Friday 7 PM: Wesleyan (11-4, 1-1) at Middlebury (10-2, 0-2)

No game is a must win this early in the conference season, and Middlebury knows that they don’t need to press, but there is still a sense of urgency for the Panthers. Falling to 0-3 is far from a death sentence, but the way Middlebury played at Tufts set off a lot of warning bells. How much of last weekend was a result of a stomach virus that ravaged the team is as of now unclear.

On the other side Wesleyan just got run out of the gym in the second half against Amherst. The game was much closer than the final score of 69-46 made it appear, but the Cardinals never really threatened the Jeffs. Amherst did a really good job of closing down on Jack Mackey ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17 and without that outside shooting, the Cardinals offense was simply unexplosive. Wesleyan can live with a meh offense so long as their defense holds its own, but first Colby and then Amherst were able to find holes in the Cardinal armor. Sinnickson is a matchup problem for a lot of teams, and Wesleyan will likely have Rashid Epps ’16 on him. Epps is stronger than Sinnickson, but Sinnickson is also a dead-eye shooter. Against Bates, most of the threes that he missed rimmed in and out. He and Hunter Merryman ’15 will rely on Brown to get them open looks from deep.

2. Friday 7:00 PM: Bates (11-2, 1-0) at Trinity (12-3, 2-0)

Trinity just saw Merchant Marine, of all teams, snap their 10-game winning streak. The offensive struggles that Trinity always has to worry about reappeared. Because of an off game from Jaquann Starks ’17, they could not create anything and shot poorly from the outside. The loss takes a good deal of the shine away from the Bantams and could possibly haunt them in a couple of months if they are looking to get an at-large bid.

How much the referees let these two teams play could have a major impact because of the possibility for foul trouble. Both teams love to play physical, especially on the boards. Bates is more than happy to slow the game down just like Trinity so this could be a game that ends up somewhere in the 50s.

3. Saturday 3:00 PM: Williams (10-4, 1-1) at Colby (9-5, 2-0)

You should watch this game because Williams has decided that every game they play in this season is going to be awesome. Counting their December clash against Wesleyan, the three games the Ephs have had against NESCAC teams have combined for three overtimes, and then of course the one game that did not go into overtime ended on this crazy Ryan Kilcullen ’15 buzzerbeater.

These two teams are at the very bottom of the NESCAC in defense and near the top in scoring so that should make the game a wide-open, fun one to watch. Though Kilcullen and the Ephs held their own against two physical frontcourts in Trinity and Amherst, Chris Hudnut ’16 is a much more skilled offensive player than anyone on those two teams. Colby came back against Wesleyan because Hudnut came alive in the second half. With Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 still out, Dan Wohl ’15 will once again have to make a ton of plays on offense. Wohl is now the front-runner for NESCAC Player of the Year and after averaging 30.0 PPG last weekend. For Colby to keep pace with the potent Williams offense, they need their supporting players like Sam Willson ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 to make outside shots.

Power Rankings 1/15

The first weekend of conference play gave us our best data points yet on teams. With that in mind, here are the Power Rankings.

1. Bates (11-2)

So far the Bobcats have been able to live up to and surpass the pre-season hype that surrounded their team back in November. The leadership and play of Graham Safford ’15 along with the production of his his right-hand man Mike Boornazian ’16, averaging 15.8 and 14.2 point per game, respectively, has propelled Bates to the number one spot in this week’s power rankings. Although they are 11-2, and seemingly in a good spot, they have only played one in-conference opponent, beating Middlebury 57-53. Their next opponent resides in Hartford Connecticut, a team that has been nipping at their heels all season. The Trinity/Bates game will be a good benchmark to see how dangerous this Bobcats team really is.

2. Trinity (12-3)

After the Bantam offense went through a stretch of four 70+ games, all manifesting in a win, the ability to score has begun to fall. Putting up only 60 point against Hamilton and then 56 against Merchant Marine, it seems as though the offensive augmentation has come to an end. While this may be the case, it has been the Bantam defense that has put them in a position to be ranked number 3 this week. So far they allowed their opponents a stingy 61.3 points per game., ranking second only to Bowdoin in team defense in the ‘CAC. As it stands now, juniors Shay Ajayi and Jaquann Starks are the consistent scorers for Trinity, but they will need more consistent production from players like senior forward Alex Conaway, as conference play heats up.

3. Middlebury (10-2)

The Panthers dropped to number three in this week’s rankings in large part due because of their 80-63 loss to Tufts (5-7) earlier this week. As the former No. 1, this defeat could be seen as solely a fluke loss, seeing as they followed the loss with a 94-56 onslaught against Castleton State. What keeps Middlebury towards the top is their ability to score points leading the league with 78.5 per game. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 continues to lead the offensive charge for the Mids top ranked offense as well as with his league leading 11.3 rebounds per game. Already 0-2 in the conference does not help as they will be facing a physical Wesleyan team later this week, defensive consistency has to be at the forefront of attention for the Panthers.

4. Amherst (10-3)

The Lord Jeffs are consistently in the mix for a NESCAC title, and this year is no different. Offensively Amherst is putting up decent numbers ranking fourth in points per game. Although they did lose to Williams 71-70, I remain adamant in my decision to put them above the Ephs, for now. Amherst’s next two games are against a Tufts team that embarrassed Middlebury, followed by a Bates team that seems to have everything working for them. The play of Johnny McCarthy ’18, who leads the league in steals per game (2.0) has enhanced  the Amherst defense. That being said, the Jeffs still have plenty of room to improve in the coming weeks.

5. Williams (11-4)

The Ephs sit directly below an Amherst team in this weeks rankings, despite beating the Lord Jeffs 71-70. Why then, are the two rivals not flip flopped? Defense. Williams has struggled to protect its own hoop this year, allowing a last place 71.8 points per game. The defensive struggles have been countered by a second ranked offense, led by Daniel Wohl ’15 and Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15. It has been well documented that a strong defense is key to making a playoff run. In the Ephs case, a defense that even ranks in the middle of the pack would be enough to support this team, given that they continue the offensive prowess that is ranked second in the league right now.

6. Wesleyan (11-4)

The Cardinals are middle of the pack in a lot of ways, but one area where they stand out is from beyond the arc. As a team, they are ranked second in three point field goals shooting 36.7 percent. The production is in large part due to play of Jack Mackey ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17. The fact they have been so good from three makes their 2-15 shooting performance as a team against Amherst on Tuesday all the more frustrating. The athleticism of Joseph Kuo ’17 has made itself apparent with his team leading 13.3 points per game. Not everything has fallen into place thus far, but the skill is there to claim a spot in the conference playoffs.

7. Colby (9-5)

Although Colby was able to edge out Wesleyan last week in a close 82-80 game, they have not showed me enough so far to be above the Cardinals. The part of the Mules’ game that is worrying is their defense, giving up 71.0 points per game. It’s no secret that allowing 70+ points each game is not a winning formula. Sure, their offense is ranked third with 76.8 ppg, but that’s not enough for me to join the Mules’ bench personalities in celebration.

8. Bowdoin (9-4)

The Polar Bears hit the ground running at the beginning of the season, but their conference play has been dismal, losing to Colby, Bates, and Wesleyan (Colby and Bates games do not count towards conference records). Defensively the Polar Bears have been able to hold opponents to a league leading 60.3 ppg, led by the big man John Swords ’15 underneath. For the Bears to make a serious push into the tournaments more offensive rhythm is going to be key. Transition offense has been lacking thus far, but if they can get the big men running the floor, Bowdoin may have more time to set up and execute offensively.

9. Hamilton (10-4)

Hamilton, like Bowdoin, was hot out of the gate winning its first seven games. Since then they are 3-4, two of those coming against conference opponents Amherst and Trinity. At 10-4 this isn’t the time for the Continentals to hit the panic button, but if their offensive struggles continue, this fast start could turn into a disappointing end.

10. Conn (7-6)

Conn’s stuggles are apparent in their record, and as we mentioned earlier, the Camels are a young but promising team. Look for the rest of this year to provide players like Lee Messier ’18 and Isaiah Robinson ’18 with time to develop their skills at a collegiate level. Losing to Bowdoin and Colby by 29 and 9 points, respectively, put Conn in a tough position in conference play. Stranger things have happened, but it does not look this is the year for the Camels.

11. Tufts (5-7)

Tufts rounds out this week’s rankings but with less negativity than you’d think. Yes, the Jumbos are 5-7 this year, and their schedule will only get tougher as they’ll play Amherst, Trinity, and Bates over the course of the next two weeks; however, a ray of hope cast down on Medford when they easily took care of previously top-ranked Middlebury 80-63, led by Tarik Smith’s big 20 point game off the bench.

Time to Invest: Stock Report 1/12

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What a weekend in the NESCAC. Could you have asked for a better first night of contests? Of the five games played on Friday night, four were decided by six points or less. Williams-Trinity went into double OT. A missed call by refs in Lewiston helped Bates to the win over Middlebury. Wesleyan had three shots from deep in the final seconds to tie the game against Colby but missed all of its attempts. And Connor Green ’16 came out of hibernation to lead Amherst to a victory over Hamilton, aided by the best offensive night of David George’s ’17 young career. The second round of conference games was only slightly less exhilarating, as Williams and Amherst played yet another classic and Tufts pulled a major upset over the suddenly suspect Middlebury Panthers. Suffice to say, Week 1 of the NESCAC season did not disappoint.

Stock Up

1. David George ’17

The Amherst big man is respected around the league for his defense, but he turned up his offensive game this weekend, scoring 29 points against Hamilton and 18 against Amherst, his highest totals of the season (the latter matching an 18-point performance in late December). George was 16-20 (80 percent) from the field and 15-19 (78.9 percent) from the stripe. Amherst is already one of the highest-scoring teams in the NESCAC. If George can be a consistent weapon on the offensive end while still maintaining his level of play on defense, Amherst will be dangerous and we could be witnessing the maturation of a future NESCAC POY candidate.

2. Colby Mules

Sure, they only beat the Wesleyan Cardinals by two and their nine-point win over the 7-6 Conn College Camels isn’t all that impressive, but for a team that came into the weekend barely over .500 getting to Monday with a 2-0 conference record is all one could ask for. This is a team with a lot of potential, which we’ve talked about before. For the second year in a row Coach Damien Strahorn is leaning heavily on his 2016 class, and they all played great this weekend. Last year the Mules could make the excuse that they were still young, but now that the core of this team is in its third year, they need to start getting the results. Maybe this was the first step towards accomplishing that.

3. Tufts’ Guard Play

We raved about the Tufts’ front court before the season started, but with Hunter Sabety ’16 out yesterday the Jumbos dominated Middlebury. Coach Bob Sheldon shook up the starting lineup, inserting Drew Madsen ’16, Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18, and no one responded better than the usual starting point guard, Tarik Smith ’17. Smith went 5-7 from the field, 2-2 from deep and 8-8 from the line for 20 points, netted two steals and only turned the ball over twice in 28 minutes. Against one of the NESCAC’s best one-on-one defensive guards in Jake Brown ’17, Smith was able to penetrate and cause havoc. Ben Ferris ’15, who just hasn’t been his old self on offense this year, had eight points, but they all seemed to come at big moments. Newcomer Vinny Pace ’18 showed some impressive touch inside and creative moves as he added eight points, and Stephen Haladyna ’16, another usual starter relegated to the bench, chipped in 11 points in his second-best shooting night of the year, percentage-wise. Tufts is still 5-7 overall, but 1-0 in the games that count the most.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury Panthers

You had to see this one coming. A few days after we gave them the top spot in our composite power rankings, they go and do something like this, losing a tight game to Bates and them getting blown out on Sunday against Tufts. As was noted on Twitter, basically the entire Middlebury roster was fairly ill on Friday night, so much so that there were rumors (the accuracy of which we will never know) that the game might be moved to another date, so props to them for gutting it out and making it a close game, but I don’t think we can say that, two days later, sickness was the reason that the Jumbos stomped them by 17 points. I don’t see this weekend as being indicative of a problem in the future, and I still think Middlebury can and will compete for a NESCAC title. But, I would be concerned that some of the negative attitude that seemed to creep up on the Panthers last season could resurface. I hope I’m wrong.

2. John Swords ’15

Maybe a bit of a surprising pick, because Swords certainly didn’t play badly this weekend, but as I noted in the power ranks last week, Bowdoin needs Swords to be a force if they are going to make it back to the NCAA tournament, and 17 points in 60 minutes of play isn’t going to cut it. Swords was pretty much his typical self in the rebounding and blocks categories, and still discourages anyone from setting foot in the paint with the ball, but I was banking on Swords elevating his game for the NESCAC season. Consider this a challenge, Mr. Swords.

3. Jayde Dawson ’18

The Fairleigh-Dickinson transfer came to Amherst with big expectations at the beginning of the season, and at this point we can probably assume that those expectations were a little bit too much to put on Dawson right away. After a couple nice games in a row, Dawson got one point, two rebound and zero assists in just 16 minutes in the Lord Jeffs’ biggest game of the season against rival Williams. Much like Michigan-Ohio State, in order to be one of the greats at Amherst, you have to beat Williams, and it seems like Dawson wilted under the bright lights. But, if last year was any indication, there’s a good chance that these teams meet again before the season is over, so Dawson should get a shot at redemption.

Someone Get Us a Water: Friday Wrap-up and Saturday Preview

The best sports weekend of the year is the first two rounds (it will always be the first two rounds no matter what the NCAA tries to say) of March Madness. Last night felt like March because of a trio of fantastic finishes. Bates-Middlebury, Colby-Wesleyan, and Williams-Trinity all came down to the final minute, and the latter two games came down to the final seconds. We will wait until after the weekend is over to really go in-depth on any type of analysis or recaps of games because Saturday is sure to bring another heaping of crazy.

Bowdoin 77 over Conn College 48: The game became a runaway at the end, and Bowdoin was in control of the game pretty much the entire way. The rout is a very solid result for Bowdoin, of which you can read the recap of on the Bowdoin website.

Bates 57 over Middlebury 53: A very physical well-fought game saw Middlebury fight through a near team-wide stomach bug, but Bates was too strong on the interior. Both teams shot poorly from the field. The Bobcats held serve at home, something that they need to do. Here is the recap on Bates website

Amherst 93 over Hamilton 86: The Jeffs overwhelmed a very game Continentals team. It took a great shooting night from the outside and a career high 29 points from David George ’17 to secure a quality victory on the road. Joseph Lin ’15 had an incredible 16 assists and 1 turnover in the loss. Here is the recap.

Colby 82 over Wesleyan 80: A very enjoyable back and forth game saw Colby come back from 9 down in the second half to open up conference season with a big road win. After we said his matchup with Rashid Epps ’16 was a “mismatch”, Sam Willson ’16 made us look like idiots with a game high 26 points. Colby has a full recap up.

Trinity 71 over Williams 69: This was the game of the night as it took two overtimes to settle it. Williams rallied from 16 down in the second half to take the game to overtime. Jaquann Starks carried the Bantams with 21 points. A full recap on the madness that went down is here.

Alright so onto Saturday. Four games on tap today. Every single game has a 1-0 team facing off with a 0-1 team meaning that there is the possibility for either chaos if a bunch of those 0-1 teams win today. Here is the briefest of run downs on what you can expect from each one.

1. Williams is now in a hole 0-1 with Amherst coming to town. The Ephs short rotation will likely make the effects of their double overtime even more perverse. Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 is out with an injury to his hand for three weeks. How the Ephs handle the first big Amherst run is huge. Besides that, everything we wrote about before the games Friday about this matchup also still holds.

2. Wesleyan knows they were in position to beat Colby, and they can’t afford to lose to both games at home this weekend. Now they need to beat Bowdoin who played their most complete game of the season last night. Both teams lean heavily on their starting five. This will be a much lower scoring game than the Wesleyan-Colby one yesterday.

3. Trinity at Hamilton may not scream excitement, but this is a mildly intriguing undercard. The Continentals were balanced and calm on offense yesterday against Amherst. They will not be fazed by the physical play of Trinity. The Bantams have to not have a let down game in Clinton, a place notoriously hard to win at. Hamilton went 4-1 at home in conference last season.

4. Colby opened conference play in 2013-2014 with a similar win over Wesleyan before stumbling and losing their next four conference games. Colby has to take care of business at Conn College. The Mules are unlikely to shoot 56.9% from the field like they did last night, but they also overcame 15 turnovers. Conn needs to shoot the ball better than the 4-20 performace they had last night.

Ho Ho Hoops

Bates and Middlebury meet one year after Bates stunned the Panthers (Courtesy of Middlebury Campus)
Bates and Middlebury meet one year after Bates stunned the Panthers (Courtesy of Middlebury Campus)

First of all, I want to wish everyone a merry Christmas 2.0, known to sane people as the first day of NESCAC play. May NESCAC Claus bless your families with many gifts.

Although there are several great games to watch today and throughout the weekend, the one that carries the most weight in the league is the Middlebury-Bates match up in Lewiston.

At 9-0, the Panthers sit at the top of the league, and are one of five remaining unbeaten teams in the country. However, entering Tuesday’s road game with 6-2 Plattsburgh, the Panthers had yet to even play a team with a record over .500 (although Skidmore’s three one-point losses make their record a tad unfair.) This led to impressive team stats for Middlebury (they lead the league in points per game, assists per game, and opponents shooting percentage.) However, the low quality of competition had garnered Middlebury little respect, both in NESCAC and nationally as the Panthers remain unranked in the D3Hoops poll.

In Plattsburgh, however, the Panthers made a loud statement regarding the legitimacy of their hot start. In a 63-53 win, Middlebury showed the defensive prowess and toughness that characterized the great teams of the Ryan Sharry-Andrew Locke-Nolan Thompson era, holding Plattsburgh to 31 percent shooting, and withstanding several runs. As has been the case for much of the season, Dylan Sinnickson ’15 keyed the win with 13 points and 13 rebounds, but it was Jake Brown ’17 who won the game for Middlebury. He had a nice stat line, with 10 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals, but it was his absurd ability to keep his intensity up on both ends for the entire game that led the Panthers to their biggest win thus far.

The game at Bates promises to take over from the Plattsburgh game as the Panther’s biggest test of the young season. Bates has made a leap this season to challenge the “Big Three” (Middlebury, Williams, and Amherst for the unitiated) for NESCAC supremacy, led by point guard Graham Safford ’15, all-around small forward Mike Boornazian ’16, and the impressive sophomore Delpeche twins. This game is ripe with matchups and storylines to watch that are key to Middlebury’s chances in the game.

The Battle of the Guards: In his recent (positively treasonous) NESCAC fantasy basketball league column, my esteemed colleague, worthy fantasy football adversary and unresponsive Snapchat friend Adam Lamont put Bates’ Safford as the “best all around guard in NESCAC.” And, from a fantasy perspective, that’s probably true. But his 4.3 turnovers per game scream that, in reality (where games are played, Adam,) Safford can be inconsistent. Watching what Jake Brown did to Plattsburgh was an experience I have never seen before. If he’d stolen the ball one more time from starting point guard Mikey Mitchell, there would have been a lawsuit coming his way. Brown took the Panthers’ biggest game of the year by the throat and led it around like a misbehaving dog, and that’s what I want from my point guard. This game should be a day of reckoning for the two best point guards in NESCAC, and the (possibly) two best teams that follow them.

The Supporting Cast: With Jake Brown and Graham Safford presumably locked onto each other like glue, and Sinnickson battling inside with the comparably athletic Delpeche brothers (by the way, if you haven’t seen Marcus Delpche ’17 ABSOLUTELY MURDER an Emory player with a dunk, look it up. Unbelievable) it is imperative that Hunter Merryman ’15 and Matt St. Amour ’17 snap out of their recent shooting slumps. The two combined to go 1-10 from three against Plattsburgh, and St Amour in particular has been struggling in the last few games. If they are hitting from outside, Bates’ athletic defense will be less able to clamp down on Brown and Sinnickson, opening up the inside of the floor for the easy baskets that Middlebury loves.

Keeping Cool: In a crowded home game at Bates, you don’t really feel like the game is taking place in the 21st century. Everything is constrained to fit the minuscule parameters of Alumni Gym. Everything each fan says is magnified in your ears, and the brick coloring gives the game something of a sepia filter. You half expect Dennis Hopper to stumble drunkenly onto the court and harass the referee. This will be unquestionably the toughest road test that the Panthers have faced, and one of the toughest of the year. Mental toughness, something that last year’s Middlebury team struggled with, will be vital to Middlebury earning this huge road win.

I’ll be one of those crowded folks in Alumni Gym tonight, cheering loudly and proudly for the Panthers. But I’ll also be keeping an eye on the rest of the NESCAC, because there’s more than one present under the annual NESCAC tree this year. And remember, it’s the moooooost, wonderful time, of the yeeeeeeaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrr.

Amateur Hour is Over, Conference Play is Here: The Weekend Preview 1/9

The Bates bench is excited about the conference season beginning. So should you. (Courtesy of Bates College)
The Bates bench is excited about the conference season beginning. So should you. (Courtesy of Bates College)

We only get five weekends of NESCAC conference basketball. Heck, I am only in session to watch my beloved Bowdoin Polar Bears for three home conference games, and the first one of those is not until February 8! Unlike most other conference schedules that see teams play each other twice, the NESCAC only gives you one shot at every team meaning every game takes on extra importance.

When all five games tip off at 7 PM tonight, it will usher in one of the most open conference seasons in years. Though we lack any official Las Vegas odds in the NESCAC, nobody should feel very confident about their chances right now. Which also means that almost everybody should feel at least a little bit confident about their chances right now.

This is going to be fun. Here is your weekend preview.

Three Players to Watch

1. Point Guard Mike Greenman ’17 (Williams): The sophomore has a knack for finding his way into the biggest moments on the court. Against Trinity and Amherst Greenman will have to initiate the offense and pressure the defense by getting into the lane. Often Greenman is not the person who ends up finishing plays but rather intends to attract defenders for others. When he drives to pass, he opens up space and driving lanes for star seniors Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Dan Wohl ’15. The downside to Greenman’s ability to get into the lane is that he turns the ball over at the third highest rate in the NESCAC at 3.7 turnovers per game. Defensively, Greenman will likely not guard Jaquann Starks ’16 on Friday but rather match up with the other guard on the floor.

2. Center Zuri Pavlin ’17 (Conn College): The Camels are one of the youngest teams in the NESCAC so it will be interesting to see how they fare in the first weekend of NESCAC play. Pavlin is a double-double machine and the best player for Conn. This weekend he gets to play two of the premier centers in the NESCAC in John Swords ’15 from Bowdoin and Chris Hudnut ’16 from Colby. Last season against those two teams Pavlin scored only 12 points combined. He will need to score way more points than that if there is any way for Conn to spring an early upset on two teams that have had some significant struggles so far.

3. Shooting Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin): The Polar Bear offense often goes through long droughts within games. Hausman is the best player on Bowdoin at creating his own shot. While the 6’3″ guard is barely 170 pounds dripping wet, he can get to the basket because of his athleticism. He scored 28 points Tuesday at Bridgewater State and is now the leading scorer for Bowdoin with 15.6 points per game. That game Tuesday saw Bowdoin blow an 18 point first half lead and then a nine point lead in the final 4:59 of regulation. The Polar Bears are very thin after their starting five so they need their stars to come through every game. Hausman has taken up the mantle of the leading scorer, and he will need to score often and efficiently.

Top Three Games to Watch

There is not enough time or space for us to preview every single game that is going on this weekend. So while the depth of the league means almost every game is worth tuning into, every week we will go in-depth on the three most important games.

3. Friday 7:00 PM: Colby (7-5) at Wesleyan (10-2)

The NESCAC opener for these teams will tell us a lot about two teams that are part of that upwardly mobile NESCAC middle-class. Do not let Colby’s 7-5 record make you think that this is not a good team. All but one of their losses is a “good” one, if there is such a thing, and they have quality victories over Bowdoin and Husson. Wesleyan is coming in on a six game winning streak, and one of their two losses was in overtime to Williams.

The Colby offense revolves around Chris Hudnut ’16, the talented big man who has taken his game to yet another level this season. For Wesleyan the emergence of Joseph Kuo ’17 means that the Cardinals now have a player capable of matching up with Hudnut while Rashid Epps ’16 can shift to the power forward position. Epps could be primed for a big game one year after having Hudnut shut him down. He will have Sam Willson ’16 on him in what could be a mismatch for Colby because of Epps physicality.

Colby has had to battle injuries that has robbed them of much of their depth. Wesleyan has seen their roles sort themselves out into a clear starting five.

Matchup to Watch: Wesleyan Points in the Paint vs. Colby Defense

Let’s be clear that Colby’s weakness is their defense. They are allowing the second most points per game in the NESCAC. The weird thing about their defensive struggles is that they have occurred despite teams shooting only 26.7 percent from three. Overall teams are shooting 41.5 percent against Colby, the third highest percentage in the league. Opponents have been getting in the paint and scoring with way too much ease. Wesleyan has changed this season from a three point heavy team to a more inside-out oriented team around Epps and Kuo. They are going to look to get the ball into the paint early and often until Colby proves that they can keep Wesleyan off the boards.

2. Friday 7:00 PM Middlebury (9-0) at Bates (9-2)

These were the last two remaining undefeated teams in the NESCAC before Bates lost two games right before New Year’s. Bates is possibly the best team that Middlebury will have faced all year, and the Bobcats are lucky to get Middlebury at home. Last year Bates beat Middlebury at Pepin Gym in what turned out to be their only NESCAC victory. The loss came back to haunt Middlebury as it was a major strike against them for an NCAA at-large bid.

The point guard match-up between Graham Safford ’15 and Jake Brown ’17 will be fun to watch. Brown is difficult to stay in front of, and Safford will have to be careful not to get into foul trouble. Bates coach Jon Furbush is likely to ask Mike Boornazian ’16 to matchup with Dylan Sinnickson ’15. Boornazian has the size and quickness to give Sinnickson problems. Bates also likes to occasionally go to a 1-3-1 zone, but given the shooters that Middlebury has, it might be difficult to defend them with a zone. On the other end the trio of Safford, Boornazian, and Billy Selmon ’15 on the perimeter is dangerous. All three are capable of getting to the basket or spotting up for three.

Do not sleep on the impact that both benches could have. Adam Philpott ’15 and Mike Newton ’16 can be a steadying force off the bench for Bates. Philpott in particular was the difference Tuesday against Brandeis with 12 big points. No one player on the Middlebury bench has jumped out for most the season, but Nick Tarantino ’18 might be emerging at just the right time. He has averaged 9.5 PPG in the two games since break and could be a crucial big body for Middlebury (see below).

One crucial thing that benefits Middlebury is that Bates begins classes on Monday so not many students will be back for the game. A lot of Lewiston community members will likely be there, but the Panthers are not walking into the fearsome Alumni Gym we usually see.

Matchup to Watch: Delpeche Brothers vs. Middlebury Frontcourt

The clear weakness of Middlebury is their front-court. Connor Huff ’16 has done a wonderful job filling in at center. However, expecting the 6’4″ Huff to stop one of the Delpeches is foolish.  Six-foot eight Matt Daley ’16 is back after missing Middlebury’s first seven games. Yet he only played five minutes Tuesday night so it would be surprising if he played extensive minutes tonight. Sinnickson will be crucial in keeping Bates off of the offensive boards, a place where the Bobcats have feasted on opponents. Malcolm Delpeche ’17 enjoyed his best game of the year against Middlebury last season with 17 points and nine rebounds. Now both he and his brother Marcus are in the starting lineup. Unless they get into foul trouble, Middlebury might have a hard time keeping the Delpeches from making plays like this dunk Marcus had against Emory.

1. Amherst (8-2) at Williams (9-3)

We already went in-depth on this game in our look at preview so go take a look there for our analysis.