Month: February 2015

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #7 Williams at #2 Bowdoin

The Bowdoin starters on the bench at the end of the game. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/CIPhotography.com)
The Bowdoin starters on the bench at the end of the game. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/CIPhotography.com)

Bowdoin finished their NESCAC season on a three game winning streak against Bates, Middlebury and Tufts to jump up all the way to the #2 seed in the tournament. Williams just lost by more than 20 points at home to Wesleyan. Yet this might be the most intriguing quarterfinal game because it matches two very different styles of play against one another. Williams lives and dies on the perimeter with Dan Wohl ’15 and Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 while Bowdoin still relies on their strong interior defense.

Last time they played:

Bowdoin jumped out to a 17-point lead as Williams scored only 23 first half points. The lead got all the way up to 20 points for the Polar Bears before Williams starting chipping away. A Ryan Kilcullen ’15 three with 0:48 left brought the Ephs to within three, but Bowdoin was able to salt the game away with free throws to win 67-60. Williams barely ever went inside and finished the game with eight made two point field goals and 12 made three point field goals. The Ephs stayed in the game by upping their defensive intensity in the second half and allowing only 27 second half points.

The rosters look somewhat different from the first time these two played, however. Keegan Pieri ’15 led Bowdoin with 20 points and 10 rebounds in the last matchup, but he is out for the season. Also, Neil Fuller ’17 was out with a leg injury, but he is now back and has played some minutes to give Bowdoin more depth in the frontcourt. Meanwhile, Rooke-Ley did not play in the first game for Williams but is fully healthy now.

John Swords '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Bowdoin X-factor: Center John Swords ’15

Since the 6’7″ Kilcullen is Williams’ tallest player, one might have expected for Swords to dominate in the first match-up, but he only managed four points, tied for his season low. Bowdoin still scored a lot of easy points in the paint because of Pieri but without him, Swords needs to step up. He has been more aggressive offensively since Pieri went down. He has started to put the ball on the floor one time and make a move to the basket that usually ends in a layup. Smaller defenders often times can deal with his height, but it is the length that comes along with that height which really gives defenders problems. Swords will simply go around players who try to defend him straight up. A couple of baskets early for Swords would be huge. On the other end, if Bowdoin plays man, Swords has to be able to get out on Kilcullen on the perimeter and keep the Boston College transfer from hitting too many threes. Of course, that puts him in the conundrum of being away from the basket which is where he makes the biggest impact for Bowdoin.

Mike Greenman '17 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Mike Greenman ’17 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Williams X-Factor: Point Guard Mike Greenman ’17

We might be seeing a transformation in how Greenman plays point guard. The sophomore has never been afraid to shoot the ball and also got into the lane and turned the ball over a lot. In recent weeks, he has shot less and, more importantly, his turnovers are down. In conference play he has averaged 1.7 turnovers per game compared to 3.6 in out of conference games. Over his past seven games Greenman has a 3.5 assist/turnover ratio, far above his 1.6 ratio for the season. During that same seven game period, Greenman has scored less than 4.0 PPG and shot only 4-24 (16.7 percent) from three. Greenman knows he is struggling and is adjusting his play because of it. It was just one play, but on Tuesday against Castleton State we witnessed Greenman pass up a wide open three in order to pass to Dan Aronowitz ’17 who drove to the lane for an easy layup. He needs to keep making the right play, and if he makes a couple of early shots too? Look out.

Three Big Questions

1. How different are these teams from the last time they played?

On the surface the presence of Rooke-Ley and Fuller combined with the absence of Pieri would seem like it would have a huge effect. The truth though is that Bowdoin and Williams have played basically the same with or without those guys. Bowdoin’s conference record with Pieri was 3-1 and 4-2 without him, and they played a harder schedule after Pieri got hurt. The Ephs went 2-2 in conference without Rooke-Ley and 3-3 with him while playing harder games without him. It isn’t like those players don’t help their teams when they are on the floor, but when they are out, other players step up. For Williams that was Aronowitz, and Bowdoin has seen Matt Palecki ’16 and Jack Hewitt ’17 combine to help Bowdoin work without Pieri.

2. Can Bowdoin play zone?

Usually when a team has as many shooters as Williams does, it is unthinkable for a team to play zone against them. For Bowdoin, they might need to play zone because they don’t have personnel to stop everyone. The zone that Bowdoin plays is not a simple 2-3 zone with each player sitting in his zone. Instead, Bowdoin plays a matchup zone centered around Swords. He always stays near the basket and only leaves the paint as a last resort if an open player is going to get a three. The four other players basically float around the perimeter switching on screens and always having one player they guard. The scheme requires constant communication and no missteps on defense. On Monday, Husson burned Bowdoin at times with penetration and ball movement. The weakness of the defense is certainly in defending the three point line. If Williams starts whipping the ball around the three point line and hitting open threes, Bowdoin will have to go man.

3. How does Williams slow Lucas Hausman ’16?

Last Saturday Tufts managed to slow down Hausman simply by playing zone against Bowdoin. Williams is unlikely to take that route because they have played almost exclusively man-to-man all season. Wohl will likely get the first crack at Hausman, but Aronowitz should also draw the assignment at times. Both are good defenders and have the right combination of quickness and size to give Hausman problems in theory. No doubt Williams has spent this week dissecting all the film they have on Hausman. They know he likes to get a great first step when he drives right and LOVES to spin into a fadeaway jumper when he drives left. What makes Hausman hard to defend is that he doesn’t use pick and roll so you can only double him once he starts making a move to the basket. Limiting his chances in transition is also crucial for Williams.

What to Expect

I haven’t really even talked yet about the offensive fireworks that Wohl and Rooke-Ley regularly produce or the importance of Bryan Hurley ’15 to everything Bowdoin does. Wohl has struggled shooting the ball from the outside (30.4 percent from deep in NESCAC games). If he does guard Hausman, the outcome of that matchup very well could decide who wins NESCAC Player of the Year. Rooke-Ley is so dangerous from behind the arc that having a hand in his face often isn’t good enough. Hurley has looked more and more comfortable as the season has gone along, and Bowdoin will look to use him and Swords in pick and rolls to put pressure on the Ephs.

These two teams have very different roster makeups so each presents problems for the other. The team that is more effective in exploiting their mismatches will win. For Bowdoin, their advantage is their size inside. We covered Swords above, but the size difference extends to the power forward position where Palecki is tough to move around inside. The edge for Williams is on the perimeter obviously. They need to have everyone hitting their threes so that Bowdoin can’t key on Wohl and Rooke-Ley. Forcing turnovers and going on runs is also important for them. This might be the highest variable game because of how Williams plays. I can see a comfortable Williams win just as easily as a Bowdoin rout. In the end, I think Hausman and Hurley do enough to offset Wohl and Rooke-Ley and Bowdoin pulls out a very entertaining game.

Prediction: Bowdoin 78 – Williams 73

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #5 Amherst at #4 Tufts

How much of an impact can the uber-talented David George '17 make in this weekend's NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup? (Courtesy of Megan Robertson/Amherst College Office of Communications)
How much of an impact can the uber-talented David George ’17 make in this weekend’s NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup? (Courtesy of Megan Robertson/Amherst College Office of Communications)

Three time defending NESCAC Tournament champion Amherst hits the road in a quarterfinal matchup for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Jumbos are playing in the #4 vs. #5 game for the fourth time in five years, and for the third time as the fourth seed. Amherst blew a chance to jump up to the second seed by getting torched by Middlebury last Sunday, and Tufts went 1-1 last weekend, the lose coming in a three-point defeat on the road at Bowdoin.

Last time they played: 80-53 Tufts

The two squads last met in the second weekend of NESCAC play, and before we go any further, let’s first acknowledge the fact that this game has the potential to be COMPLETELY different from the first tilt. Back on January 16, when Tufts dominated then #25 Amherst 80-53 at LeFrak, a couple of things were different. Tufts was still an underdog, and at that time occupied the final spot in our Power Rankings. Nowadays the Jumbos come into the game playing much better ball and with a winning record. Point guard Tarik Smith ’17 was just beginning his transformation into dynamic scoring threat off the bench, and was in the midst of probably the best shooting stretch of his life. In 13 games since being removed from the starting five, Smith has averaged 13.8 PPG, as opposed to 6.0 PPG as a starter. Forward Connor Green ’16 hadn’t really gotten rolling yet. Since then he has scored 19 points or more six times in 10 games, and is coming off possibly his most impressive offensive performance of the season in his last game at Middlebury. Hunter Sabety ’17, even though he was ineffective on the boards, was his usual offensive presence inside offensively, tallying 14 points on 7-10 shooting, and defensively he had four blocks. It’s unclear whether Sabety, who’s been out since January 24 with a knee injury, will be able to take the floor on Saturday. Even if he does, what kind of shape will he be in? Jayde Dawson ’18 was still starting at point guard for Amherst. Reid Berman ’17 has since taken over and facilitated exceptionally well to the Amherst scorers.

The Lord Jeffs never held a lead in the last game between these two teams. The biggest issue was that Amherst simply didn’t shoot well, and Tufts was hot all game long. The Jeffs’ starters went just 7-28 (25 percent) from the field, and Jeff Racy ’17 was the only Amherst player who one could say had even a decent game offensively. Meanwhile, the Jumbos shot better than 50 percent from deep and 49.1 percent from the field, numbers well above what Tufts can usually do and below what Amherst usually allows, so expect some regression to the mean this time around.

Tufts X-factor: Forward Tom Palleschi ’17

Tom Palleschi '17 will have to play big against Amherst's post presence David George.
Tom Palleschi ’17 will have to play big against Amherst’s post presence David George.

As mentioned above, Sabety’s status is seriously in question. According to this Tufts Daily article, he has been cleared to return as of Tuesday, but it is unclear if he will play still. When healthy and at his best, Sabety is one of the most talented (and productive) players in the NESCAC. In his absence, tri-captain Tom Palleschi ’17 has emerged to make good on the promise he showed as a freshman two seasons ago. If Palleschi is alone in the front court he will have a tough time dealing with David George ’17, so the outcome of that battle could significantly impact the outcome of the game. Since January 24, Palleschi has taken on a much more of the offensive burden and is tallying 15.5 points per game on 47.2 percent (50-106) shooting, 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. Tufts needs that kind of production and more from the lefty if they are going to dispose of Amherst once again. But, if the Jumbos can throw the Twin Towers out against a shallow Amherst front court then Tufts will have a significant advantage in this game.

Hunter Sabety '17 is one of the NESCAC's most feared player on either side of the court - but will he even be active against Amherst? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Hunter Sabety ’17 is one of the NESCAC’s most feared player on either side of the court – but will he even be active against Amherst? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Since losing Sabety in January, Tufts has gone 5-3. The wins have come against Connecticut College (7-16), Hamilton (14-10), Colby (13-11), UMass-Dartmouth (12-12) and Fitchburg St. (14-10). Tufts has one of the strongest strength of schedules in the Northeast according to the NCAA Regional Rankings, but none of their recent wins have come against stiff competition.

Amherst X-factor: Three-point Shooting

The biggest contributors to the Lord Jeffs’ long range game are Racy and Green. Racy is a pure shooter, who not long ago set the Amherst College record with 10 three pointers made in one game when he went 10-14 from deep off of the bench in a win over Conn. College. Green, meanwhile, shoots just under 40 percent from deep and has knocked down at least six three pointers in half of his last six games. In the Jeffs’ six losses this year, they have shot just 42-127 (33.1 percent) from deep, but they are a 37.0 percent shooting team on the season from three-point range. Amherst has attempted the second most three pointers in the NESCAC this season, and since they lack much of a scoring presence inside (though we’ve seen George turn it on for short spurts in the past), this team relies on making outside shots to stay in the game.

Three Questions

1. Who guards Connor Green?

There is a distinct possibility that Tufts plays zone to slow down Green as that was the defense they used Saturday against Bowdoin. However, if they go man, the honor will likely go to Ben Ferris ’15. Palleschi will likely be locked up with George down low, and if Sabety is active he could take on George while Palleschi slides over to cover Jacob Nabatoff ’17, who can take the ball away from the basket more than George can. Smith will probably come off the bench as he has been for awhile now but will still see most of the minutes defensively against Berman and Dawson. So either Ferris or Stephen Haladyna ’16 are the only ones left to match up with Green. Ferris has better strength than Haladyna, something that is necessary against the multi-faceted Green. This will be a tall order for whomever draws Green.

2. What does Tufts do when the shots stop falling?

As mentioned above, the Jumbos made better than one out of every two shots they took from beyond the arch last time these teams played, but they are a 31.5 percent three point shooting team on the season. So if they are forced to find other ways to score, they have two options. Smith will have to penetrate and dish to open shooters as well as his big men. Smith has the quickness advantage over both Berman and Dawson, so his driving ability will be key. Secondly, they will need to work inside-out at times. Amherst can throw another big body down there besides George in Eric Conklin ’17, but Conklin has much less experience than George and the Jeffs give up a lot on the offensive end with him on the floor. Whoever gets the ball with their back to the basket and Conklin on him will have to make plays either by scoring or drawing a double team and dishing.

3. Can David George make an impact on offense?

Frankly, George has been disappointing offensively this season. He’s made a moderate improvement in scoring, up from 11.2 points per 40 minutes to 16.1 in that regard, but there is so much more potential there. Sticking with the rate statistics, George had 4.1 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes in 2013-14, and this season has barely raised that number to 5.2 per 40 minutes. His field goal percentage has actually gotten slightly worse this season. George has made some improvements but with his size and athleticism he still has a lot of room to grow on offense. We mentioned above that Racy and Green from deep could be the X-factors that helps Amherst win this game, but over the course of the whole tournament it could be George that plays the biggest role if Amherst is to win its fourth straight NESCAC title.

What to Expect

Nothing close to last what happened last game. If this game is decided by more than 10 points I would be shocked. I do hope that Sabety can get on the floor, because it creates a lot more intrigue and he is fun to watch. If he does, for Tufts the question will be how quickly Sabety can shake off the rust and mesh well with Palleschi inside. Expect Smith to have some success attacking the lane off of the dribble, and a big game from Green on the other end. Despite the letdown last Sunday at Middlebury, Amherst still has arguably the best defense in the NESCAC and won’t allow Tufts to get near 80 points again, but I feel as though the Jumbos match up well with the Lord Jeffs. It will all come down to Tufts’ front court play. I’m expecting Sabety to see the court, but he won’t be 100 percent and his impact won’t be enough to bring home the victory. Lastly, the Amherst players know how to win and I’m sure that in their minds expect to return to the NCAA tournament, and the Lord Jeffs hold the advantage in the coaching department (just ask the Amherst broadcast team).

Prediction: Amherst 73 – Tufts 65

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #8 Colby at #1 Trinity

In a normal NESCAC basketball season, the one seed versus the eight seed would be a guaranteed blowout for the top team, and I would have written this preview in fifteen minutes with Twitter open on three different Apple devices to see if the Celtics had traded for Goran Dragic. But 2014-2015 has been anything but normal for NESCAC basketball, and therefore even this weekend’s Trinity versus Colby matchup has upset potential.

Last time they played – 88-79 Trinity:

Jaquann Starks '16 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Jaquann Starks ’16 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Much like Trinity’s final performance against Middlebury, the game was uncharacteristically high scoring for a team that had struggled to score early in the season. After a back and forth start, the Bantams used a 19-5 run, highlighted by 11 points from Jaquann Starks ’16, to take an 11-point lead into the half. The lead reached a height of 23 points in the second half at 66-43, and, while Colby did claw their way back down to single digits, the game was simply not close. Starks ended the game with 25 points and five assists, while Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 added 12 points and five rebounds and 13 and five, respectively. For Colby, Ryan Jann ’16 led all scorers with 27 points, while Luke Westman ’16 finished with 14 points, five rebounds and five assists.

Trinity X-factor: Offense/Intensity

The regular season meeting against Colby, while it was certainly an impressive win for the Bantams, also brings up some issues that further manifested themselves against Middlebury, and could be a problem in the tournament. After seemingly putting the game out of reach against both Colby and Middlebury, the vaunted Trinity defense took a snooze, allowing huge second half point totals and letting the opponent back into the game. The same sort of streakiness can be seen in their offensive performance. In their early season struggles, Trinity struggled mightily offensively, often scoring under 60 points and relying on stifling defense to get by. They have recently been putting up high point totals, but sometimes turning off the jets for periods of time. Starks’ game is symbolic of these sometimes-lackadaisical tendencies. He has a penchant for disappearing for long stretches and then reappearing in a blaze of glory, like a comet, or the McRib. However, if he doesn’t return, like he didn’t in the second half against Middlebury, then Trinity’s offense can become stagnant, especially against a team with solid interior defense. Trinity may be able to get by in this game with streakiness, but at later levels of the tournament they’ll have to get more consistent, and Colby will certainly be on the watch for lazy streaks to attack on Saturday.

Colby X-factor: Ryan Jann

Ryan Jann '16 has become one of the NESCAC's most explosive scorers with multiple big games in the absence of Chris Hudnut '16. (Courtesy of Dean Denis Photography/Colby Athletics)
Ryan Jann ’16 has become one of the NESCAC’s most explosive scorers with multiple big games in the absence of Chris Hudnut ’16. (Courtesy of Dean Denis Photography/Colby Athletics)

Jann was having a solid junior season before the injury to Colby’s POY candidate Chris Hudnut ’16, but since Hudnut went down, Jann has raised his game. In addition to the 27 he poured in against Trinity, Jann had 26 in the Mules’ big win over Middlebury, and 26 against Tufts as well. The Mules’ offense has changed since Hudnut’s injury, with a lot more room for perimeter players like Jann to drive and cut through the line, which has also provided Jann with chances for open jumpers when other players drive and kick. For Colby to have any hope in this game, Jann will need to continue this strong play and then some.

Three Questions

1. Will Trinity sleep on Colby?

Trinity could almost not be faulted for looking past the eight seed to either Tufts (their only league loss) or Amherst (the most talented team in the league on paper.) However, given the volatile nature of this iteration of NESCAC, any team can beat any other team on a given day, and it is vital for both teams that they keep that in mind.

2. Can Colby get interior stops?

While Colby and Middlebury both solved Trinity’s defense in the second halves of their respective matchups with Trinity, they were stuck trading baskets for a while, as neither team could keep Trinity’s forwards out of the paint. If Colby can handle the three-headed forward creature of Ajayi, Ogundeko and George Papadeas ’15, then they will be much more equipped to take advantage of Trinity’s streakiness on the perimeter.

3. Are Trinity’s high scores legit?

Trinity’s offense in league play has been putting up huge numbers, with 88 against Colby and 90 against Middlebury, as two examples. However, my cousin’s Catholic elementary school team could put up 80 against Middlebury these days, and Colby without Hudnut is certainly lacking in some toughness. It remains to be seen whether Trinity has really changed into an offensive juggernaut.

What to Expect:

Also imperative in Colby’s upset hopes is Westman, he of the absurd 74.2 percent shooting percentage. The point man got some love on Twitter earlier this month.

(Currently, Westman is still just shy of qualifying for the NCAA lead in field goal percentage. Players must average five made field goals per game played.)

Westman has had a fantastic season, and he and Jann coupled with Hudnut would be a formidable big three. But without the man in the middle, Westman will need to continue playing well, and even go beyond his solid 13.3 points per game average, to lessen the load on Jann’s shoulders. Expect solid performances from both of them, but ultimately not transcendent enough to pull the upset.

Prediction: Trinity 84 – Colby 63 

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #6 Wesleyan at #3 Bates

Can Bates finish up an undefeated season at Alumni Gym? (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Can Bates finish up an undefeated season at Alumni Gym? (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

To get you ready for Quarterfinal Saturday, the craziest day on the NESCAC calendar, we are going to go in-depth on all four games. The format for each game preview will vary a little, but our goal is to prepare you to expect the unexpected for every game this weekend.

Last time they played: Wesleyan got strong first half performances from Joe Edmonds ’16 and Harry Rafferty and led by four at halftime. After Mike Boornazian ’16 brought the teams to even at 38 all a few minutes into the half, Wesleyan hit three consecutive threes to take a nine-point lead. It looked like Wesleyan was going to notch a big win until Graham Safford ’15 went off. He scored 18 of his 31 points in the final 12:24 to will Bates to the win. Boornazian was the only other Bobcat in double figures while Rafferty, Edmonds and Jack Mackey ’16 all scored 15 points or more for the Cardinals.

Bates X-factor: Forwards Mike Newton ’16 and Max Eaton ’17

The biggest reason for Bates’ great start to the season was the improved play of both Delpeche brothers, but both have cooled off at this point. Tuesday, the two combined for only two points. Newton and Eaton have both received more playing time to compensate, but they are different players. They can shoot some which helps give Bates spacing, but they lack the ability to finish around the rim like Malcolm or Marcus can. If one of the Delpeches struggles, then Newton or Eaton will have to play major minutes. And given the Cardinals’ X-factor, it might help to have a forward who can play away from the basket on the floor.

Wesleyan X-factor: Center Joseph Kuo ’17

The Cardinals have become progressively more perimeter oriented as the year has gone along, but they are still going to make sure to get Kuo the ball a lot. He still has possessions where he makes moves and ends up missing the rim by a couple of feet, but Kuo still makes enough of his post shots that teams have to at least think about doubling him. On defense, he is a good rim protector who does a good job of avoiding fouls. Why are both team’s X-factors post players? Because the perimeter play could very much be a wash given all the talent out there. In the interior and on the boards is where both of these teams really win and lose games.

Three Questions

1. How does Bates try to slow down Wesleyan?

The Bobcats played some 1-3-1 zone earlier in the year, but we have seen less and less of that zone as the season has gone along. Wesleyan has good personnel to play against the zone also with a knockdown shooter in Jack Mackey ’16 and a slasher in BJ Davis ’16. Still, Bates has not had great success in man-to-man. Coach Jon Furbush kept trying different players against Lucas Hausman ’16, but none of them slowed him down very much. If Bates is in man then Wesleyan will likely give the ball to Davis and let him go to work. In their first game, Davis handed out a season high 11 assists. Because Joe Edmonds ’16 has been playing so well for Wesleyan, Boornazian will probably have to guard him because he has the best size. That will leave Billy Selmon ’15 on Davis. Selmon is not known as a defensive whiz, but at the very least he has a good size advantage over Davis. If the match-ups aren’t working for Bates then they will slow down the pace and play zone.

2. Did Wesleyan turn a corner last weekend?

Winning on the road in conference play is not easy, but the Cardinals just had two of them by more than 20 points last weekend. The win against Williams especially was impressive given the teams played earlier in the season and the Ephs won in OT. The Cardinals have led in the second half of a couple of their losses, including their first match-up with Bates and a 65-61 loss to Trinity two weekends ago. Yet, they are also a team that got their doors blown off at Middlebury and got handled easily by Amherst. This team does have a different look than it did near the beginning of the year. Jack Mackey ’16 and Davis are the leaders of the team while Harry Rafferty ’17 has seen his role been reduced somewhat. The Cardinals aren’t as good as they looked last weekend, but they are playing better than Bates right now.

3. Can the crowd be a factor?

Bates has a somewhat unusual academic schedule, and students are on break until Monday morning. The Bobcats are trying to get students back early, as seen above, and how many actually return could have a big impact if the game is close. Even though studies have found home advantage is an overrated aspect in many sports, college basketball is one place where it really does matter. That study looks at Division I schools which usually have more boisterous crowds, but if any school can claim a home-court advantage, it’s the Bobcats. For what its worth, more than 100 people have said on Facebook that they will be at the game, but we won’t know until after tip-off really how many people show up.

What to Expect

Wesleyan is still kicking themselves for letting the first match-up slip away. The Cardinals 5-5 record in conference misses the fact that two of those wins came against Bowdoin and Tufts, good quality teams. Their balance is what makes them good, but it’s also true that a lot of their scorers are streaky. It is usually two or three guys who carry the load each game and not everybody scoring 10 points each game. To me, Bates has slipped just a little bit in conference play. A lot of their wins ended up being close ones at home, and the Alumni Gym magic can only do so much. It is also unlikely that Wesleyan will allow Safford to go off like he did last game. Safford and Boornazian will keep it close, but the ability of all five players on Wesleyan to score will be the difference in a low scoring game.

Prediction: Wesleyan 68 – Bates 58

How They Stack Up: Power Rankings 2/18

Our usual Power Rankings writer, the esteemed Dave Peck, is busy this week with work and other endeavors so I am going to fill in for the week. Keep that in mind if these rankings look very different from the ones last week. However, I think Dave has been doing a fantastic job and have not made too many changes, though one of my decisions near the bottom might surprise you.

1. Trinity (19-5, 9-1) Last Week: 1

This Saturday will mark exactly one month since the Bantams lost a game. Trinity fell to Fisher, an NAIA school, on January 21 and has won six NESCAC games since then. Nothing much has changed since last week for them. They handled their business against Middlebury for 38 minutes, but the Panthers did make a late comeback to make things interesting. Trinity continues to get little respect nationally, as they are not ranked in the D3Hoops poll and were below Amherst and Bates in the first NCAA regional rankings.

Captain Hart Gliedman '15 made life miserable for the Panthers' Dylan Sinnickson '15 in Trinity's last regular season game, a 90-85 win at Middlebury. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Captain Hart Gliedman ’15 made life miserable for the Panthers’ Dylan Sinnickson ’15 with outstanding perimeter defense in Trinity’s last regular season game, a 90-85 win at Middlebury. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

2. Bowdoin (17-7, 7-3) Last Week: 6

The Polar Bears rocketed up the standings this weekend, and now they rocket up the Power Rankings. Plenty has been said about back-to-back NESCAC Player of the Week Lucas Hausman ’16 and his improvement this season, but one should not overlook the improved quality of play from his classmates Matt Palecki ’16 and Jake Donnelly ’16. Palecki has settled into the power forward position and is even providing some needed three point shooting, and Donnelly is also now in the starting lineup as a third guard. His contributions do not always come through on the stat sheet, but he is the best perimeter defender for Bowdoin and is the primary ball-handler when Bryan Hurley ’15 needs a rest.

3. Amherst (18-6, 6-4) Last Week: 3

The Jeffs bungled their chance to get the number two seed in the NESCAC tournament and subsequently hurt their NCAA at-large chances with a loss Sunday to Middlebury. Yet the loss does not really change our opinion of the Jeffs. Besides Connor Green ’16, nobody played well for Amherst, and there is way too much talent on the roster for that to happen again. The key for Dave Hixon will be figuring who has the hot hand and get them on the court as much as possible Saturday.

4. Bates (19-5, 7-3) Last Week: 2

The Bobcats second game against Bowdoin went completely differently than the first one which was a rout for Bates. Do not put too much stock into this loss because the Bobcats ran into the perfect storm for Bowdoin. The important thing is that they took care of business Saturday against Colby and now have a home game against Wesleyan in the first round of the NESCAC tournament. This is most likely the final home game for Bates this season, and seniors Graham Safford ’15, Adam Philpott ’15, Cam Kaubris ’15 and Billy Selmon ’15 would love to finish their final season at Alumni Gym undefeated.

5. Tufts (13-11, 6-4) Last Week: 5

It is starting to seem like Tufts has simply been treading water the last couple of weeks since Hunter Sabety ’17 got hurt. The Jumbos went 3-3 in their final six NESCAC games without him. To be fair, those three losses were all by single digits and Tufts was either winning or tied at halftime of each of them. Tom Palleschi ’16 has benefited from the extra space on the inside and has been scintillating to watch lately. However, he went cold down the stretch against Bowdoin, a big reason why Tufts could not keep up at the very end.

6. Wesleyan (16-8, 5-5) Last Week: 9

No team made a bigger statement in their two games last weekend than the Cardinals. They went from squarely on the bubble of making the tournament to the sixth seed and a chance to redeem a close lose against Bates. The Cardinals are a very unselfish, balanced team that had four players finish with 11 or more PPG over the course of the regular season. No other team did that, even though as a team Wesleyan was only the fifth highest scoring team this season.

7. Williams (15-9, 5-5) Last Week: 4

The final weekend did not treat Williams as well as they might have hoped. Wesleyan ended up blowing out Williams at Chandler Gym in what was one of the worst shooting performances for the Ephs all season. In fairness, a lot of the shots they missed seemed to rattle in and out, but the fact remains that Williams lives and dies by the three. While that makes them a terrifying opponent to play against, the chances of them having three straight great shooting games in a row to win the NESCAC tournament are long.

8. Middlebury (17-7, 4-6) Last Week: 8

I know that Middlebury did not make the playoffs, but after watching them play Amherst, you think Trinity is thankful that they are playing Colby and not Middlebury? That is no disrespect to Colby, but the Mules are a different team without Chris Hudnut ’16. The improvement of Matt St. Amour ’17 (19.6 PPG, 62.7 percent FG [32-51] in his last six games) as the year went along is an encouraging sign for a Middlebury team that will look to get the program back quickly to the high level it was performing at a few years ago.

Once he recovered from an ankle sprain suffered in late January, St. Amour looked like a different player. The Vermont native will be at the center of Middlebury's reloading effort in 2015-16. (Courtesy of Michael O'Hara/Middlebury Campus)
Once he recovered from an ankle sprain suffered in late January, Matt St. Amour ’17 looked like a different player. The Vermont native will be at the center of Middlebury’s reloading effort in 2015-16. (Courtesy of Michael O’Hara/Middlebury Campus)

9. Colby (13-11, 4-6) Last Week: 7

Give credit to Colby: they are fighting like crazy and having a lot of guys step up in order to stay competitive right now. Not many teams could have lost their projected starting power forward and center and still lose to Tufts and Bates by single digits. While an upset of Trinity is a longshot, it certainly is not impossible. Luke Westman ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 are right up there as one of the top backcourts in the league. Both of them need to play superbly Saturday.

10. Hamilton (14-10, 2-8) Last Week: 10

The Continentals closed out their season with a victory over the Mules. Despite the 2-8 record, there were a lot of positives for the Continentals who had to deal with the unexpected loss of Matt Hart ’16 to transfer. Joseph Lin ’15 was one of the best stories of the season, but he suffered an unfortunate injury that cut short his campaign. On Saturday for his final home game, Conn College allowed Lin one last basket at home.

11. Conn College (7-16, 0-10) Last Week: 11

For the second time in three seasons, the Camels finished the season without a win in conference. The good news is that everyone should be back next year for Conn, barring any transfers. There appears to be a foundation for at least respectability in place in New London, but winning will not come easy for Conn. The current sophomore and freshmen classes are both big so Conn will rely on the growth of those players next year.

 

 

Cardinals Fly at Expense of Panthers: Stock Report 2/16

Going into the weekend, the biggest piece yet to be solved in the playoff puzzle was whether Middlebury or Wesleyan would take the final spot (Colby could have also fallen out under one unlikely scenario). On Friday the Cardinals breezed past Hamilton while Middlebury could not complete a miraculous comeback and fell just short to Trinity. Only a Wesleyan loss and Panther victory Sunday would send Middlebury to the playoffs. By late Saturday afternoon the playoff field was set. Wesleyan sucked out the drama from the proceedings when they opened up the second half with a 14-0 run to take a 20-point lead over Williams, eventually closing out the Ephs with a 74-52 victory. Middlebury actually finished the season on a high note with a nice win over Amherst, but their fate had already been sealed.

Stock Up

Point Guard Jack Mackey ’16 (Wesleyan)

If you look at his statistics from the weekend, it seems like Mackey had his normal productive if somewhat cursory weekend. That would miss the fact that he scored 13 straight points for Wesleyan in the second half when Williams tried to mount a comeback. More importantly, it would miss the defense that Mackey played on the Williams guards. Mackey was a big part in holding Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 to six points. Mackey is a tenacious and physical defender. Though he does not use his quickness very often on the offensive end, he has good lateral quickness which makes it hard for opponents to get into the lane against him. Mackey is a big reason why Wesleyan finished the season ranked third in the league in scoring defense with 64.0 PPG allowed.

Shooting Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin)

Lucas Hausman '16 tallied 44 points on Friday night, the highest total recorded in the NESCAC this season. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/CI Photography)
Lucas Hausman ’16 tallied 44 points on Friday night, the highest total recorded in the NESCAC this season. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/CI Photography)

Hausman was absolutely on fire Friday night tying the Bowdoin single game record with 44 points. He went 20-25 from the field while scoring in almost every way imaginable: fast break layups, fall away jumpers off of his trademark spin move, and threes with a hand in his face. In fact, the only way he didn’t score was from the foul line where he went 0-1 on the night. Yet on the season he has made the most free throws in the NESCAC. Hausman cooled off Saturday against the Tufts zone, but he still scored 16 points as Bowdoin won to secure a home playoff game. Dan Wohl ’15 has been the favorite to win Player of the Year honors for most of the season, but Hausman is making a worthy late charge. Because the NESCAC tournament is also included when deciding who will win NESCAC honors, the award might come down to how Hausman and Wohl play against each other when Williams plays at Bowdoin in the first round.

Trinity

The Bantams already had the number one seed sewn up before the weekend, but they still were big winners because of two things. First, they went up and controlled the game against Middlebury. The bench, led by Rick Naylor ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’15, had 29 of the team’s 39 first half points. Trinity’s 90 points in the game was a high for them in conference. The second thing that went well was Colby finishing with the eight seed. The Mules are still dangerous without Chris Hudnut ’16, but they simply do not have the size that Trinity has inside. The Mules are definitely a preferable matchup for Trinity compared to Middlebury or Wesleyan. I’m not saying that Colby can’t get hot shooting the ball and shock the Bantams this weekend, but it will take a heck of an effort to do it.

Stock Down

Amherst’s Sense of Urgency

Going into Sunday, Amherst knew a win got them the two seed while a loss dropped them all the way to the five seed and a trip to Tufts in the first round. That didn’t seem to show as Middlebury led wire-to-wire, and Amherst never really made a run. Maybe it was the delayed start time because the referees were late or that Amherst lacked somebody who could rally the team and tell them that this was a must-win. Whatever the case, the win cost the Jeffs and deprives us of a third Williams vs. Amherst matchup in the first round of the playoffs. Instead, Amherst has to take on Tufts, a team that blitzed them in a 27-point victory. Granted, the outcome is very unlikely to be the same because Hunter Sabety ’17 is hurt, but the Jeffs did themselves no favors this weekend.

Forward Marcus Delpeche ’17 (Bates)

Though we often lump them in as one unit, the Delpeches are in fact two different basketball players. Marcus has played slightly more and put up bigger numbers than Malcolm overall this season. Against Colby and Bowdoin, Marcus scored 7.0 PPG, not that far below his 9.7 PPG average on the season. What was concerning was that he had only four rebounds against Bowdoin and ONE against Colby. Bates still managed to do okay on the boards as a team. Don’t be fooled by Bowdoin having eight more rebounds than Bates on Friday. The reason for that was not Bates’ rebounding but their defense: since Bowdoin made 63.5 percent of their shots, there were less defensive rebounds for Bates to grab. Still, Marcus Delpeche should be getting way more than five rebounds over two games. Hopefully a return to Alumni Gym will get him going.

Williams

Saturday was senior day in Williamstown for Ryan Kilcullen ’15, Rooke-Ley and Wohl, but the day did not end the way supporters of the Ephs were hoping. The blowout loss to Wesleyan means Williams finishes the year at 5-5, seventh in the league standings. For all intents and purposes, this year’s team was the product of Mike Maker, the former Williams coach. He recruited all of the players on the roster, and though Kevin App changed some things schematic-wise, the team retained the same up-tempo three point heavy style. The talent still on the roster was properly recognized as one of the most talented in the league before the season began, but they have been inconsistent all season. While they blew out Middlebury, they also lost to Hamilton and struggled to put away Conn College. There is still a distinct possibility they get hot and make a run to win the NESCAC title. If not, then the season will end far short of where it did a season ago. The Ephs lose three starters in Rooke-Ley, Wohl and Kilcullen after this year. None of their juniors this year saw very significant minutes. This is going to be a very young team next season led by Dan Aronowitz ’17 and Mike Greenman ’17. The heavy lifting of the rebuilding process is just beginning for App.

The 10 Most Important People This Weekend

Graham Safford '15 might be holding flowers, but he still has his eyes on the prize: two wins this weekend. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Graham Safford ’15 might be holding flowers, but he still has his eyes on the prize. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Usually in our weekend preview we tell you three players who we think are going to have a significant impact on the weekend. Given how big of a weekend this one is, three is simply not going to be enough. The criteria for this is not simply the best players on each team. The most important players are the ones who will have the biggest impact on how we look back on the weekend.

10. Small Forward Peter Kazickas ’15 (Hamilton)

The emergence of Joseph Lin ’15 has overshadowed the improvement of Kazickas, another senior who has stepped up in his final season. Last season Kazickas was a secondary option for Hamilton and only made 0.4 threes per game. This season he is shooting an unfathomably hot 59.1 percent from three in conference while making four times as many threes as last year. Yes, Hamilton is officially eliminated from the tournament, but as Williams learned earlier, traveling to Clinton is not an easy task. The Continentals could play spoiler to Wesleyan, if Kazickas shoots like he has been recently.

9. David George ’17 (Amherst)

If George watched the Middlebury-Bowdoin game, he was salivating at all the dunks John Swords ’15 had against the Panther frontline. He could have a great game Sunday if Amherst makes a concerted effort to get him the ball. George has been a very good player this year for the Jeffs, but he has not been close to the dominant force he looked like for parts of the NCAA tournament. He is shooting 52.8 percent from the field which honestly is not a great percentage for a big man. A big game going into the NESCAC tournament will put fear in Amherst’s opponents.

8. Shooting Guard Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 (Williams)

Any doubt about who the best pure shooter in the NESCAC is was put to rest by Rooke-Ley Friday night against Bates. He went 6-8 from three, many of them with a hand in his face. To shoot for the season 46.7 percent from three given the difficulty of most of those shots is impressive. Finding him in transition is an absolute must. Rooke-Ley might not create very many opportunities for others, but he cashes in on the ones he has. At 4-4, Williams could be primed for a 2-0 weekend against Wesleyan and Conn College. If they got to 6-4, it would be the first time all season they have been more than a game away from .500 in conference.

7. Guard BJ Davis ’16 (Wesleyan)

Staying in front of Davis is a nightmare, and he gives Wesleyan more dynamism in their offense now that the Cardinals are running more offense through him. The Cardinals might need to win both of their games this weekend, and Davis is the one player who can truly be a difference maker for them. His shooting percentages are not great recently as he is drawing opponents’ top defenders. In conference games Davis is Wesleyan’s leading scorer and passer with 13.6 PPG and 4.0 APG. It is possible that on Saturday Williams puts Dan Wohl ’15 on Davis. If that is the case, Davis will probably try to use his quickness to get in the lane and forgo shooting from outside.

6. Point Guard Jake Brown ’17 (Middlebury)

Nobody thought that Middlebury would be here, needing at least one victory in the final weekend against Trinity or Amherst to even think about making the tournament. Brown could be important in very different ways. Friday against Trinity, Brown will defend Jaquann Starks ’16. Starks has been in double-digits the last five games, but Brown will be a real challenge for him. If Brown shuts down Starks, the Bantams offense could grind to a halt for long periods. Then, on Sunday Brown might take advantage of his athleticism against Reid Berman ’17 to get into the lane and cause Amherst headaches. Last Sunday Brown was limping at periods with what looked like an ankle injury, and if he is less than 100 percent, Middlebury will be in even bigger trouble than they are already.

5. Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)

A fired up Swords is the best type of Swords, and that is the version we saw on Sunday against Middlebury. It probably helped that he only had one game that weekend and did not have to worry about his knees. Though his offensive production against Middlebury was great, it will be his defense and rebounding that Bowdoin really relies on this weekend. Because Tom Palleschi ’16 did not play last year, Swords and him have not matched up for significant minutes yet. The two will likely spend the beginning of the game feeling each other out with Palleschi probably relying on his jump shot initially.

4. Power Forward Sam Willson ’16 (Colby)

Willson is basically the entire Colby frontcourt right now. We aren’t sure because Colby does not publish the height of their players on their website, but based off of this photo, after Willson, Luke Westman ’16 was the second tallest player who played for Colby against Middlebury. Willson wasn’t even supposed to start this year, but a preseason injury to Patrick Stewart ’16 and more recent injury to Chris Hudnut ’16 leaves Willson as the only big man left. Offensively his role is the same as he is still really a stretch four who is good in pick and roll situations. On defense is where he will really make or break the Mules’ weekend. He could have a tough time going against Tom Palleschi ’16 and Marcus Delepeche ’17. He will need to use his strength and rely on help from his teammates to keep Colby afloat down low.

3. Center Tom Palleschi ’16 (Tufts)

In the first half against Williams, Palleschi looked unstoppable draining midrange jumpers, hook shots, and layups down low on his way to 22 points. Then suddenly in the second half he went cold and didn’t score in the final 17:20 of the game. That was a big reason why Williams came back to win and plunge Tufts back into the thick of things. Without Hunter Sabety ’17, Palleschi is the only inside threat for Tufts. He has to exploit Colby who is still playing without Chris Hudnut ’16. If Tufts stumbles Friday then Palleschi will have to deal with Swords. His ability to hit shots from outside might give Swords problems, but he has to make them first.

2. Power Forward Dylan Sinnickson ’15

His Player of the Year candidacy is over after last weekend, and Sinnickson just has not looked like the same explosive inside-out threat that we saw earlier this year. In his past four conference games, Hamilton was the only one where he scored more than 13 points or grabbed more than nine rebounds. He needs to be the man for Middlebury for at least one game this weekend. Something like a 20 and 15 performance. He most certainly has to outplay Connor Green ’16 when those two meet on Sunday. Maybe returning to Pepin will help Sinnickson to get back to the player who looked almost unstoppable for stretches earlier in the season.

1. Point Guard Graham Safford ’15 (Bates)

We have been saying all season that Safford is the single most important player to any team. There is a reason why he is averaging an insane 36.9 MPG. But how much of a toll is it taking on him? The last two Friday NESCAC games Safford has averaged 26.0 PPG, but on Saturday that average dips all the way down to 9.5 PPG. Both of those games have still been wins, but they were against Hamilton and Conn College, the two worst teams in the NESCAC. Bates might struggle Saturday against Colby. So maybe Safford knows that Friday is the game that Bates needs to win. After all, he was in the Bowdoin gym Sunday afternoon watching Middlebury and Bowdoin play.

Decision Time: Weekend Preview 2/13

This weekend is all about preparing for the playoffs. Trinity has the top seed under wraps, but otherwise no team has clinched a home playoff game. There is a scenario in which six teams, Bates, Amherst, Bowdoin, Tufts, Colby and Williams, could all finish 6-4. In that case, Amherst, Bowdoin and Williams would host playoff games. However, if Amherst loses on Sunday to Middlebury they could end up going on the road next weekend if Tufts and Williams both win out; Bowdoin will probably lose a top-four seed if they lose to Tufts; and Williams needs to sweep to have any chance of hosting next weekend.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the ladder, the Panthers likely need one win to carry them through to the tournament, but they play two of the league’s best in Trinity and Amherst. They hold the tie-breaker over Wesleyan, but the Cardinals also get a soft matchup in Hamilton before they play Williams. If Wesleyan wins both games, they will almost certainly be playing playoff basketball. What’s more, Williams, who as I just mentioned has a chance to host, could miss the playoff altogether if Middlebury pulls off two upsets, Wesleyan sweeps, Colby wins at least one and the Ephs collapse and lose to both Conn. and Wesleyan.

Suffice to say it will be a chaotic weekend. We are breaking up the weekend preview somewhat so check back in later today for our look at the most important players for this weekend. Here are the best games to watch over the next few days. With the added flair of a prediction for each.

1. Trinity at Middlebury, Friday 7 PM

The Bantams are unlikely to rest on their laurels since the top seed is still unfamiliar to them, while the Panthers are fighting for their playoff lives. Trinity should be able to slow Middlebury down on the break, but Jake Brown ’17 and Co. will try to push the tempo nonetheless. Though Middlebury has been criticized for their defense recently, these are still the two top defenses by field goal percentage allowed, so it will be physical and could get ugly. These teams are also 1-2 in rebounding margin, but a large part of the Panthers’ success on the boards comes from Dylan Sinnickson ’15 out-jumping his matchups. Unfortunately for him, the Trinity forwards who will likely guard Sinnickson, Alex Conaway ’15 and Shay Ajayi ’16, are great at boxing out and will make rebounding difficult.

I think we see a lot of points but not necessarily great shooting numbers. These teams are going to be running up and down the floor a lot, so the benches could be a factor, which I actually think plays to Middlebury’s advantage, but it’s not enough for me to side with the Panthers.

Prediction: Trinity 79, Middlebury 75

2. Wesleyan at Hamilton, Friday 7 PM

I don’t think Wesleyan can handle the Ephs on Saturday, so if they want to make the tournament then they have to beat Hamilton. I hope Joseph Lin ’15 (assuming Lin returns from an injury sustained at Bates) and BJ Davis ’16 go at each other all game because they are both great penetrators who distribute well. Neither is too shabby at shooting the long ball, either. I think in some sense those two offset one another. So I think this comes down to inside play, and Wesleyan clearly has the edge. Hamilton does not rebound well, even with seven-footer Zander Wear ’18 getting more minutes lately, while Wesleyan has a few forwards who can bang on the boards. The Cardinals’ front court holds the advantage on both ends of the floor, and they just need this game more. If there is going to be a game where Hamilton can play at another level and win a big game it will be at the seniors’ last home game on Saturday against Conn.

Prediction: Wesleyan 73, Hamilton 64

3. CBB Battles: Bates at Bowdoin, Friday 7 PM and Bates at Colby, Saturday, 3 PM

The CBB is always full of drama. Technically, Bates won it back in December when the three matched up in non-conference play, but for a second suppose these game count towards the CBB as well. Colby has gone 1-2, dropping its first matchup with Bates and splitting with Bowdoin, Bates is 2-0 having beaten each team once already and Bowdoin is 1-2. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they all ended up tied.

Bates should still be favored in their matchup with the Polar Bears, though the return of Neil Fuller ’17 really strengthens their bench. Fuller is likely still shaking off some rust, but he was a 24.5 MPG starter for Coach Tim Gilbride before he went down with injury so he is a boost for a team that had been running out a pretty short rotation. We’ll have to wait and see if John Swords ’15 and Matt Palecki ’16 can handle the Delpeche duo. Last time these two teams met, Malcolm and Marcus combined for 21 points and 17 rebounds, but what’s even more impressive is that Swords had just five points and three boards.

Matt Palecki '16 will have his work cut out for him tonight. Not many players can out-jump the Delpeche brothers like Palecki did here. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Matt Palecki ’16 will have his work cut out for him tonight. Not many players can out-jump the Delpeche brothers like Palecki did here. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Prediction: Bates 62, Bowdoin 58

As for the Saturday tilt between Bates and Colby, Ryan Jann ’16 has been a man possessed recently. He’s taking a lot more shots in the absence of Chris Hudnut ’16, but somewhat surprisingly for someone who suddenly has to take on a lot more responsibility, they are mostly going in. In four games without Hudnut, Jann is 26-56 (46.4%) from the field and 12-21 (57.1%) from deep and his confidence just seems to be growing. I don’t think Jann alone is enough for me to pick Colby in this one, but he sure is fun to watch.

Prediction: Bates 80, Colby 71

Setting the Stage: Power Rankings 2/12

Trinity solidified their spot at the top this weekend and is the undisputed top dog for now. Others are not far behind though, and this week saw a lot of shuffling around for teams. Before the crazy final weekend of NESCAC play, this is how we think the conference is really shaping up.

1. Trinity (18-5, 8-1) Last Week: 1

Trinity stands at the top for the third straight week, making them the favorite going into the conference tournament. After playing two of the three bottom teams last week (Wesleyan and Conn), the Bantams have clinched the right to host the NESCAC tournament. They will close out their regular season on the road against a struggling Middlebury team. Trinity’s top ranked defense will be difficult to beat as they enter the tournament in a week and a half.

2. Bates (17-4, 6-2) Last Week: 3

In their last two games, the Bobcats were able to hold off their opponents, beating both Williams and Hamilton by two points. Everything seems to be going right for the Bobcats, and at the right time too. The third ranked defense has stifled its opponents, especially down the stretch, as we saw in the Hamilton game when they allowed 0 points in the last 1:36 of the game. Malcolm Delpeche ’17 has elevated his game, particularly in the last two games, scoring 13 and 14 points respectively. Beating a Williams team that’s playing some of its best basketball gives us a reason to put them above Amherst.

3. Amherst (17-5, 6-3) Last Week: 2

Amherst, like Bates, won both its games since we last reported, beating Conn and Wesleyan. The gap between Bates and Amherst right now is close, seeing as both teams went undefeated last week. Looking at strength of schedule however, gives the edge to the Bobcats. The Lord Jeffs did what they had to do against two struggling teams, so the drop in ranking should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, while Amherst lost to Williams earlier in the season in a non-conference game, Bates was able to edge the Ephs out, lowering Amherst to No. 3, if not 2A.

4. Williams (13-8, 4-4) Last Week: 6

Williams jumps up two spots this week after playing Bates to a close 68-70 point game  and for taking down Tufts 80-75 on the road. In the conference standings the Ephs sit one game behind Tufts, but with a head-to-head win, and with Conn and Wesleyan left to wrap up conference play, their performance in Medford gives Williams the advantage. Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Daniel Wohl ’15 are quite the dynamic duo offensively, averaging 23 PPG each in their last three games.

5. Tufts (12-10, 5-3) Last Week: 4

Tufts went 2-1 since last week, beating Hamilton and Fitchburg State while losing to Williams in a close 75-80 game. In four of their last five games, the Jumbos have allowed their opponents to score over their season average (64.6 PPG), making it even more difficult for an already struggling offensive unit. Their last two conference games, Bowdoin and Colby, will be a good test to see if their offense can get something rolling going into the playoffs.

6. Bowdoin (15-6, 5-3) Last Week: 7

While they only played one game in their last week, Bowdoin took advantage of the break, resting up, and coming out fighting against Middlebury, beating them in an 88-70 thrashing. Bowdoin’s stalwart defense has continued to play well, but it’s been the variety of production from their starters that’s gotten the Polar Bears rolling. That being said, the bench accounted for only 10 points in their 88 point game. In the tournament, Bowdoin will need some kind of spark to keep things rolling off the bench, a spark that could come from forward Neil Fuller ’17 who recently returned from injury.

7. Colby (13-9, 4-4) Last Week: 9

Colby and Bowdoin have been similar in their game all season long, and this week was not different. Like the Bears, Colby only played Middlebury and was able to beat them, albeit by less of a margin, 84-80. Colby’s offense has been huge for them all year, and lately it’s been no different with Ryan Jann ’16 leading the way. Finishing up against Bates and Tufts, the Mules need continued, if not increased, production to ensure themselves a playoff spot.

8. Middlebury (16-6, 3-5) Last Week: 5

Middlebury’s recent struggles seem to have come out of nowhere, seeing as just two weeks ago the Panthers were ranked second in our power rankings. They’ve lost four of their last seven, three of which coming against fellow NESCAC opponents. Their struggles are rooted from their poor defensive play of late, which not even their number one ranked offense could counter. With Trinity and Amherst waiting for them next, you can bet that Dylan Sinnickson ’15 won’t let his team finish their season on a bad note.

9. Wesleyan (14-8, 3-5) Last Week: 8

Wesleyan’s struggles continued last week, losing to both Amherst and Trinity on consecutive nights. It hasn’t been easy for the Cardinals, who played Tufts and Bates back-to-back in their previous two games, as they quickly find themselves with a losing record in conference play. A positive for Wesleyan has been Middlebury’s recent struggles, which gives them a great chance to sneak into the playoffs. While Middlebury finishes with Trinity and Amherst, Wesleyan will take on Hamilton and Williams. I shouldn’t speak too soon, but it seems more likely that the Cardinals could send the Panthers back to the Green Mountains a little earlier than they imagined. Who knows, maybe Middlebury players want to catch the end of ski season.

10. Hamilton (13-9, 1-7) Last Week: 10

All year, Hamilton has been competitive in almost all of their games, but they just haven’t been able to close out games. The same occurred last week as the Continentals were unable to put away Bates after having a 71-66 lead with only 1:36 left on the clock. With Wesleyan and Conn rounding out their season, perhaps Hamilton can close one out and end the season on a positive note.

11. Conn College (7-14, 0-8) Last Week: 11

Conn’s struggles have been there all season and will probably continue until next year. The guys down in New London are hungry to get one in the win column and know that their best chance will come against either Hamilton or Wesleyan. With a season of frustration almost behind them, Conn needs to go into these games with a chip on their shoulder to show the league that they won’t stop competing.

The Race Gets Tighter: Fantasy Report 2/11

Zuri Pavlin '17 was unstoppable on the boards this weekend, grabbing 29 rebounds. (Courtesy of Conn. College Athletics/Anika Goodhue Photography)
Zuri Pavlin ’17 was unstoppable on the boards this weekend, grabbing 29 rebounds. (Courtesy of Conn. College Athletics/Anika Goodhue Photography)

With Bowdoin thrashing my very own Panthers last weekend, my only chance to earn any bragging rights this winter over Adam is if I can thoroughly annihilate him in fantasy basketball. I had been cultivating a nice lead in the points, assists and rate categories, but as of last week blocks, steals and three pointers made seemed to be slipping out of reasonable grasp. With that in mind, and the loss to injury of two of my skilled big men, Hunter Sabety ’17 and Chris Hudnut ’16, I was forced to make some roster decisions. I would have loved to add sharpshooter Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, but Adam had waiver priority and beat me to the punch, but I was satisfied to add Connor Green ’16 and Matt Daley ’16. I didn’t end up playing Daley this weekend, but I’m hoping for a big week from him in the final weekend coming up. Adam was forced to sit his best rebounds/blocks contributor, John Swords ’15, who had only one game, which gave me some hope that I could close the gap in those categories. Here’s how our lineups shook out:

Lord of the ‘CAC (Adam) Lin and Tonic (Joe)
Position Player Player
Guard G. Safford J. Starks
Guard D. Wohl L. Westman
Guard H. Rooke-Ley C. Green
Forward A. Santos E. Ogundeko
Forward D. Sinnickson D. George
Forward Mar. Delpeche H. Merryman
Forward S. Ajayi Z. Pavlin
Bench J. Brown J. Lin
Bench J. McCarthy M. Daley
Bench J. Swords L. Hausman

I rolled out a lineup with a little bit less scoring potential than usual. Of course, Lucas Hausman ’16 only had one game, but I also kept Joseph Lin ’15 on the bench who is among the league’s best at scoring. However, I felt good about the matchups I had. Two of my guards this week are very good rebounders, and I was hoping for a big week from beyond the arch from Jaquann Starks ’15, Green and Hunter Merryman ’15. Zuri Pavlin ’17 stepped up huge for me with 21 rebounds against Trinity. My strategy worked on the boards, but it was a cold week for my squad from deep, aside from Green who netted 10 of my 15 three pointers:

Category Lord of the ‘CAC Lin and Tonic
Points 235 178
Assists 26 18
Rebounds 100 116
Steals 7 13
Blocks 6 9
FT% 87.7% (64/73) 66.1% (37-56)
FG% 46.2% (73/158) 42.3% (63-149)
3PT Made 27 15

While I took over the advantage this week, the percentage gaps shrunk considerably, which makes me nervous. It will be tough to hang onto the slim margins I’ve created, but it’s always better to be ahead in a tight race than behind. Here are the composite standings:

Category Lord of the ‘CAC Lin and Tonic Leader
Points 829 899 Joe
Assists 125 144 Joe
Rebounds 418 419 Joe
Steals 69 62 Adam
Blocks 65 48 Adam
FT% 74.0% (194/262) 75.1% (266/354) Joe
FG% 45.6% (288/631) 47.5% (318/670) Joe
3PT Made 78 40 Adam

Overall Score: Joe 5-3