Three time defending NESCAC Tournament champion Amherst hits the road in a quarterfinal matchup for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Jumbos are playing in the #4 vs. #5 game for the fourth time in five years, and for the third time as the fourth seed. Amherst blew a chance to jump up to the second seed by getting torched by Middlebury last Sunday, and Tufts went 1-1 last weekend, the lose coming in a three-point defeat on the road at Bowdoin.
Last time they played: 80-53 Tufts
The two squads last met in the second weekend of NESCAC play, and before we go any further, let’s first acknowledge the fact that this game has the potential to be COMPLETELY different from the first tilt. Back on January 16, when Tufts dominated then #25 Amherst 80-53 at LeFrak, a couple of things were different. Tufts was still an underdog, and at that time occupied the final spot in our Power Rankings. Nowadays the Jumbos come into the game playing much better ball and with a winning record. Point guard Tarik Smith ’17 was just beginning his transformation into dynamic scoring threat off the bench, and was in the midst of probably the best shooting stretch of his life. In 13 games since being removed from the starting five, Smith has averaged 13.8 PPG, as opposed to 6.0 PPG as a starter. Forward Connor Green ’16 hadn’t really gotten rolling yet. Since then he has scored 19 points or more six times in 10 games, and is coming off possibly his most impressive offensive performance of the season in his last game at Middlebury. Hunter Sabety ’17, even though he was ineffective on the boards, was his usual offensive presence inside offensively, tallying 14 points on 7-10 shooting, and defensively he had four blocks. It’s unclear whether Sabety, who’s been out since January 24 with a knee injury, will be able to take the floor on Saturday. Even if he does, what kind of shape will he be in? Jayde Dawson ’18 was still starting at point guard for Amherst. Reid Berman ’17 has since taken over and facilitated exceptionally well to the Amherst scorers.
The Lord Jeffs never held a lead in the last game between these two teams. The biggest issue was that Amherst simply didn’t shoot well, and Tufts was hot all game long. The Jeffs’ starters went just 7-28 (25 percent) from the field, and Jeff Racy ’17 was the only Amherst player who one could say had even a decent game offensively. Meanwhile, the Jumbos shot better than 50 percent from deep and 49.1 percent from the field, numbers well above what Tufts can usually do and below what Amherst usually allows, so expect some regression to the mean this time around.
Tufts X-factor: Forward Tom Palleschi ’17
As mentioned above, Sabety’s status is seriously in question. According to this Tufts Daily article, he has been cleared to return as of Tuesday, but it is unclear if he will play still. When healthy and at his best, Sabety is one of the most talented (and productive) players in the NESCAC. In his absence, tri-captain Tom Palleschi ’17 has emerged to make good on the promise he showed as a freshman two seasons ago. If Palleschi is alone in the front court he will have a tough time dealing with David George ’17, so the outcome of that battle could significantly impact the outcome of the game. Since January 24, Palleschi has taken on a much more of the offensive burden and is tallying 15.5 points per game on 47.2 percent (50-106) shooting, 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. Tufts needs that kind of production and more from the lefty if they are going to dispose of Amherst once again. But, if the Jumbos can throw the Twin Towers out against a shallow Amherst front court then Tufts will have a significant advantage in this game.
Since losing Sabety in January, Tufts has gone 5-3. The wins have come against Connecticut College (7-16), Hamilton (14-10), Colby (13-11), UMass-Dartmouth (12-12) and Fitchburg St. (14-10). Tufts has one of the strongest strength of schedules in the Northeast according to the NCAA Regional Rankings, but none of their recent wins have come against stiff competition.
Amherst X-factor: Three-point Shooting
The biggest contributors to the Lord Jeffs’ long range game are Racy and Green. Racy is a pure shooter, who not long ago set the Amherst College record with 10 three pointers made in one game when he went 10-14 from deep off of the bench in a win over Conn. College. Green, meanwhile, shoots just under 40 percent from deep and has knocked down at least six three pointers in half of his last six games. In the Jeffs’ six losses this year, they have shot just 42-127 (33.1 percent) from deep, but they are a 37.0 percent shooting team on the season from three-point range. Amherst has attempted the second most three pointers in the NESCAC this season, and since they lack much of a scoring presence inside (though we’ve seen George turn it on for short spurts in the past), this team relies on making outside shots to stay in the game.
Three Questions
1. Who guards Connor Green?
There is a distinct possibility that Tufts plays zone to slow down Green as that was the defense they used Saturday against Bowdoin. However, if they go man, the honor will likely go to Ben Ferris ’15. Palleschi will likely be locked up with George down low, and if Sabety is active he could take on George while Palleschi slides over to cover Jacob Nabatoff ’17, who can take the ball away from the basket more than George can. Smith will probably come off the bench as he has been for awhile now but will still see most of the minutes defensively against Berman and Dawson. So either Ferris or Stephen Haladyna ’16 are the only ones left to match up with Green. Ferris has better strength than Haladyna, something that is necessary against the multi-faceted Green. This will be a tall order for whomever draws Green.
2. What does Tufts do when the shots stop falling?
As mentioned above, the Jumbos made better than one out of every two shots they took from beyond the arch last time these teams played, but they are a 31.5 percent three point shooting team on the season. So if they are forced to find other ways to score, they have two options. Smith will have to penetrate and dish to open shooters as well as his big men. Smith has the quickness advantage over both Berman and Dawson, so his driving ability will be key. Secondly, they will need to work inside-out at times. Amherst can throw another big body down there besides George in Eric Conklin ’17, but Conklin has much less experience than George and the Jeffs give up a lot on the offensive end with him on the floor. Whoever gets the ball with their back to the basket and Conklin on him will have to make plays either by scoring or drawing a double team and dishing.
3. Can David George make an impact on offense?
Frankly, George has been disappointing offensively this season. He’s made a moderate improvement in scoring, up from 11.2 points per 40 minutes to 16.1 in that regard, but there is so much more potential there. Sticking with the rate statistics, George had 4.1 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes in 2013-14, and this season has barely raised that number to 5.2 per 40 minutes. His field goal percentage has actually gotten slightly worse this season. George has made some improvements but with his size and athleticism he still has a lot of room to grow on offense. We mentioned above that Racy and Green from deep could be the X-factors that helps Amherst win this game, but over the course of the whole tournament it could be George that plays the biggest role if Amherst is to win its fourth straight NESCAC title.
What to Expect
Nothing close to last what happened last game. If this game is decided by more than 10 points I would be shocked. I do hope that Sabety can get on the floor, because it creates a lot more intrigue and he is fun to watch. If he does, for Tufts the question will be how quickly Sabety can shake off the rust and mesh well with Palleschi inside. Expect Smith to have some success attacking the lane off of the dribble, and a big game from Green on the other end. Despite the letdown last Sunday at Middlebury, Amherst still has arguably the best defense in the NESCAC and won’t allow Tufts to get near 80 points again, but I feel as though the Jumbos match up well with the Lord Jeffs. It will all come down to Tufts’ front court play. I’m expecting Sabety to see the court, but he won’t be 100 percent and his impact won’t be enough to bring home the victory. Lastly, the Amherst players know how to win and I’m sure that in their minds expect to return to the NCAA tournament, and the Lord Jeffs hold the advantage in the coaching department (just ask the Amherst broadcast team).
If you think there is a D3 head coach in the country who is better than Dave Hixon, then you might be an idiot.
— Lord JeffCast (@LordJeffCast) February 19, 2015
Prediction: Amherst 73 – Tufts 65