Month: March 2015

Bevy of Seniors Look to Bounce Back: Bowdoin Baseball Season Preview

Peter Cimini (#25) will be a big part of the Bowdoin lineup this season. (Courtesy of CIPhotography.com)
Peter Cimini (#25) will be a big part of the Bowdoin lineup this season. (Courtesy of CIPhotography.com)

2014 Record: 18-16-1 (5-7, Fourth in the NESCAC East)

Postseason Outcome: Missed NESCAC Playoffs

Returning Starters: 9 (6 Position Players, 3 Starting Pitchers)

Projected Starting Lineup (Stats are from 2014)

2B Aaron Rosen ’15 (.331/.396/.496, 0 HR, 19 RBI)
LF Cole DiRoberto ’15 (.301/.358/.376, 1 HR, 10 RBI)
CF Peter Cimini ’16 (.279/.367/.404, 1 HR, 20 RBI)
DH Chad Martin ’16 (.333/.362/.496, 4 HR, 30 RBI)
3B Sam Canales ’15 (.304/.368/.363, 0 HR, 13 RBI)
1B Erik Jacobsn ’15 (.277/.358/.349, 1 HR, 11 RBI)
C Chris Nadeau ’16 (.196/.327/.217, 0 HR, 3 RBI)
SS Sean Mullaney ’17 (.180/.349/.180, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
RF Joe Gentile ’18

RHP Henry Van Zant ’15 (1-2, 1.95 ERA)
RHP Erik Jacobson ’15 (3-3, 4.09 ERA)
LHP Harry Ridge ’16 (4-2, 2.87 ERA)

Offensive Overview:

The offensive core returns for Bowdoin as six of the top seven OBP performers from last season are back. The bad news is that this group sputtered in conference play finishing with the second fewest runs scored. The top of the lineup should be very good with Aaron Rosen ’15, First Team All-NESCAC in 2014, getting things started. Peter Cimini ’16 and Chad Martin ’16 will look to build off of their breakout sophomore campaigns. Those two were two of the biggest positives from last season. They will need to provide most of the power for this lineup.  Sam Canales ’15, Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Cole DiRoberto ’15 are line drive hitters who will be very solid cogs for Bowdoin. The bottom of the lineup is a big question mark. Both Chris Nadeau ’16 and Sean Mullaney ’17 played occasionally last season and hit below the Mendoza line. Joe Gentile ’18 is the frontrunner to grab the final outfield spot and has above average speed, but freshmen regularly struggle to adjust to collegiate pitching. The bottom of the lineup needs to be serviceable while the guys who have proven themselves must be special.

Defensive Overview:

First of all, we lack the advanced stats or the extensive scouting that allow us to break down defense like they do at the professional level. From what we know, the Bowdoin defense was neither a strength or weakness overall, but they made some critical errors in conference that cost them. Cimini will have to replace speedy centerfielder Kyle LeBlanc ’14, and he is flanked by DiRoberto and Gentile, two players who are question marks defensively. The infield should be a strength with the duo of Rosen and Mullaney a potent double-play combination. Nadeau only threw out three of the 18 base runners who attempted to steal against him. That percentage must, and should, go up by a lot. The defense is unlikely to be a game-changer for Bowdoin, but they should be more sure handed and commit fewer errors than last season.

Pitching Overview:

The strength of Bowdoin is a pitching staff that was very good despite injuries to their presumed top two starters. Now the staff that had the second best overall ERA behind Tufts returns their top four starters and closer. Ace Henry Van Zant ’15 was only able to pitch near the end of the season, but he looked great tossing a casual 1.95 ERA in 27.2 innings. Harry Ridge ’16 and Erik Jacobson ’15 both return after posting solid though not remarkable numbers. Jon Fraser ’15 emerged as a legitimate weapon out of the bullpen with an eye-popping 0.76 ERA to go with a 11.03 K/9 rate. Michael Staes ’16 also pitched very well and looks to be the first guy up if someone in front of him stumbles or gets hurt. Finally, keep an eye on freshman Logan Simon ’18, a freshman from recent baseball powerhouse Harvard-Westlake in California. He will get innings early on in Florida to get a good look at what he can do.

Storylines to Watch

1. How much do they steal?

Though Bowdoin doesn’t lose a lot of production from last year on offense, a good deal of their 40 steals from a year ago are no longer on the roster. Rosen is the only significant threat to steal a base, and even he only stole eight times in 2014. Cimini has good speed, but Manager Mike Connelly might be loathe to let him loose if Martin bats behind him. If the back end of the lineup gets on base more, Connelly might set them loose in order to create havoc on the base paths. On the other hand, the Polar Bears might choose to simply eschew stealing for the most part and instead concentrate on smart, safe base running.

2. Does SP Harry Ridge ’16 wear down again?

In each of the past two seasons, Ridge has started the season off by pitching a few games beautifully before seeing his numbers dip significantly in the second half. This might make sense if Ridge was a power pitcher unused to throwing so many innings, but he is actually a control pitcher who strikes few guys out even when he is pitching well. Why he has struggled so much in the second half is somewhat of a mystery, but the third time might be the charm. One of the problems for Ridge was the defense behind him committing a lot of errors with him on the mound. Some of that is because pretty much everybody puts balls in play against him, but he should have better luck this season.

3. Can the entire lineup hit?

This is probably the biggest question for the Polar Bears. The bottom three hitters in their lineup do not project to hit very well. That impact is huge as pitchers are able to relax and pound the zone for a couple of hitters. The best hitters for Bowdoin will not see as good pitches because opponents will depend on getting Bowdoin hitters out with runners on base. Big innings become very hard also. The best NESCAC teams have threats at every spot in the lineup.  The Polar Bears don’t need Mullaney, Nadeau and company to hit like rock stars down there, but they need to at least put the ball in play and make the defense get them out. Bowdoin was near the league lead in strikeouts last season.

Biggest Series: At Bates April 3 and 4.

The good news for Bowdoin is that the second spot in the East behind Tufts looks wide-open, and they probably have the most returning talent of any of the remaining four teams. Bowdoin opens the NESCAC season against Tufts, but their series the next weekend against Bates will tell us whether this team is capable of returning to the playoffs. Taking two out of three will go a long way towards getting Bowdoin to the top of the heap. Last season Bates took two of three from Bowdoin in what turned out to be a huge series for the Bobcats. Also, we would be surprised if these games happen at Bates on schedule given all the snow still on the ground.

To Kill A King: Wesleyan Season Wrap-up

The Wesleyan Cardinals are NESCAC champions. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)
The Wesleyan Cardinals are NESCAC champions. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)

Season: 19-9 (5-5), Won NESCAC Championship, Lost in First Round of NCAA Tournament to Skidmore

Wesleyan brought back a young and talented squad in 2014-15, but expectations, at least outside of Middletown, were low for a program that has been under .500 for the past two seasons. The Cardinals, though, were not surprised by their level of success.

“At the beginning of the season we talked about building a championship culture – something rarely associated with Wesleyan. The success of the 2012 20-win team served as confidence to get the program to the next level.” – Joe Edmonds ’16

Coach Joe Reilly relied heavily on a six-man rotation of underclassmen that featured three players capable of handling the point in Jack Mackey ’16, BJ Davis ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’16, a sharpshooting forward in Edmonds, a hyper-efficent power forward in Rashid Epps ’16 and a big rebounding machine in Joseph Kuo ’17. The impact and leadership of Chris “Air Canada” Tugman ’15, Tim “Dog Show” Gallivan ’15 and Bryan Galvin ’15 cannot be understated. Tugman and Gallivan each had crucial rebounds in the Cardinals’ first round NESCAC upset. PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18 provided high energy minutes and brought defensive length to the court in limited time.

Overall, Wesleyan did nothing more than make good on the tacit promises that its players made to themselves at the beginning of the season. Edmonds and his teammates talked about creating a championship culture. That was solidified when the Cards hosted the trophy.

High Point: Five-game win streak on the way to winning a NESCAC title

The Cards were 3-5 in the NESCAC on the morning of Friday, Feb. 13 and a long shot to reach the NESCAC Tournament. Wesleyan manhandled Hamilton that night and swept the floor with Williams the next day to finish at 5-5 and solidify its spot as the sixth seed. Then the Cards went on the road to the toughest gym in the NESCAC and squeaked out a W against Bates. The next weekend Wesleyan was in a hostile environment once again, but topped the Bantams in Hartford in the NESCAC Semifinals. The Cardinals torrid run culminated with an overtime win – just the second overtime game in NESCAC title game history – over three-time defending champion Amherst. The NESCAC title was the program’s first, and the first for any sixth-seed in the tournament, and the NCAA berth was also a first for Wesleyan.

MVP: Center Joseph Kuo ’17

Joseph Kuo '17 not only led the team in scoring and rebounding, but provided some highlight reel slam dunks and was a force inside defensively. (Courtesy of the Wesleyan Argus/Jonas Powell)
Joseph Kuo ’17 not only led the team in scoring and rebounding, but provided some highlight reel slam dunks and was a force inside defensively. (Courtesy of the Wesleyan Argus/Jonas Powell)

It’s damn near impossible to pick one player from the Wesleyan rotation to make Most Valuable Player, because the production was spread out so equally and the defense was a complete team effort. And, if you were to ask any of the Wesleyan players (oh yeah, we did), they would only reiterate that sentiment instead of singling out a single contributor. Nevertheless, if you’re going to pull my leg, I’ve got to hand the award to Kuo, who led the team in rebounding and scoring (though just barely). The Cardinals’ best depth came in the backcourt, with Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Reed and Sears in reserve. Take one of them away and Wesleyan might not win the NESCAC, but the Cards would still be contenders. Take away Kuo, though, and Wesleyan probably doesn’t make the NESCAC.

Players to Watch in 2015-16: Guards PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18

PJ Reed '17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
PJ Reed ’17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jordan Sears '18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jordan Sears ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Wesleyan will return its offensive punch next season, but this duo of athletic guards could be ready to make a major impact on the defensive end next season. Both players check in at 6’5″ and have the chance to be forces defensively.

“PJ Reed and Jordan Sears have the potential to be really big pieces for us next year,” Edmonds said. “Coach Reilly emphasizes defense and rebounding and both provide plenty of length and athleticism.”

That Wesleyan could add two more weapons to its arsenal is a scary thought for the rest of the NESCAC.

Survive and Advance Is the Name of the Game: Stock Report 3/9

Though it doesn’t get the publicity that the D-I tournament does, the D-III hoops tourney is even more chaotic and wide-open than what is commonly called March Madness. The first two rounds of the tournament are played on back-to-back days. Keeping track of all the action is borderline impossible, but somehow the miracle workers at D3Hoops.com do it.

Luckily for us, we only worry about one conference, though with four NESCAC teams in the tournament it was still a little crazy. Wesleyan lost in the first round to Skidmore while Amherst fell in the second round to St. John Fisher. However, Bates and Trinity both won their Regionals and now will face against each other at Babson at 5:30 PM on Friday.

Stock Up

Shooting Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates)

Well let’s see, Boornazian averaged 20.0 PPG, helped Bates advance to the Sweet 16, and scored his 1,000 career point. Not a bad weekend. Friday night Boornazian played second banana as Graham Safford ’15 controlled the proceedings with 30 points and 10 assists. On Saturday against Stockton, Safford struggled a bit, and it was Boornazian who carried the load. He finished the game with 17 points, seven rebounds, three assists and two blocks. He scored 14 of his points in the first half before going cold for most of the second half. Boornazian did a good job of adjusting and handed out all three of his assists during the second half, including one very pretty layoff that led to an easy Adam Philpott ’15 layup. Combined with a big game from Malcolm Delpeche ’17 (17 points and 10 rebounds), Boornazian helped the Bobcats overcome a subpar game from Safford and advance. Guard play becomes magnified in the tournament, and Bates should feel confident knowing they have both Safford and Boornazian.

Trinity Defense

They call the NCAAs the Big Dance, and the Bantams made sure to dance with the one that got them there: their defensive effort. The Bantams had started clamping down already before their loss to Wesleyan in the NESCAC semifinals (the score was 55-52 after all), but something tells me that Coach Jim Cosgrove was able to really get the message through to his players because of that loss. Things looked bad for Trinity early as their first round opponent, Colby-Sawyer, came out firing and held a 24-8 lead with 10:27 left in the first half. Then Trinity regrouped during a 20-second timeout and allowed only SIX points for the rest of the half. After scoring 24 points in 9:33, it took Colby-Sawyer exactly 26 minutes to score their next 24 points. At that point the score was 53-48 in the Bantams’ favor, and the Bantams hung on for the victory. Then Trinity played even better defense on Saturday holding Salisbury to 47 points on 29.5 percent shooting.

Shay Ajayi '16 tallied 22 points and 12 boards in the Bantams' two victories this weekend. (Courtesy of Trinity Sports Information/NESCAC.com)
Shay Ajayi ’16 tallied 22 points and 12 boards in the Bantams’ two victories this weekend. (Courtesy of Trinity Sports Information/NESCAC.com)

Point Guard Andrew Hurd ’16 (Trinity)

Though he comes off the bench, Hurd was crucial for Trinity this weekend. Hurd, a transfer from Central Connecticut State this fall, has become a more integral part of Trinity’s success as the season has gone along. When he is in the game, he takes over the primary ball-handling duties and allows Jaquann Starks ’16 to work off the ball. Unlike Starks, Hurd looks to pass when he gets into the lane, and his two assists in the final minutes were the difference for Trinity against Colby-Sawyer. Though he is only 5’10” and 160 lbs (he looks like he weighs even less if that is possible), Hurd is a very good defender. He seems to have an innate sense of knowing what the opposing ball-handler is going to do. He combines that with great lateral movement and quick hands to get a lot of steals. He had seven alone this weekend. Hurd adds another wrinkle to Trinity that makes them tougher on both ends of the floor.

NESCAC Overall

I think this weekend demonstrated just how good of a league the NESCAC is. Williams, Amherst and Middlebury are all known and respected nationwide as great programs because of their success, and some people wrote off the NESCAC as simply not being very good this year because those teams weren’t on top. So for the league to go 5-2 this weekend and send two teams to the Sweet 16 is very impressive. Bates and Trinity are certainly not associated with basketball, even though Trinity has won in the not so distant past. Over the past three seasons, seven different teams from the NESCAC have made it into the tournament. That number could very well jump up even further next season if Colby or Tufts delivers on the promise we saw this season. But first, we have one final NESCAC match-up to dissect and predict.

Stock Down

Momentum

Wesleyan was unquestionably the hottest team entering the tournament while Amherst was also playing well entering this weekend. However, it was Bates and Trinity, the two teams that struggled down the stretch, that ended up advancing. Now you might be saying, ‘What do you mean Trinity struggled down the stretch? They went 9-1 in the NESCAC and barely lost in the semifinals to Wesleyan?’ Well, Trinity had won five of their last six games by single digits (the other game was against Conn College) before losing to Wesleyan. Obviously the Bantams’ style means they play close games, but this was still a concerning trend. The time off seemed to help Bates a lot in terms of regaining their mojo while the loss for Trinity helped them to refocus. Obviously, Wesleyan winning the NESCAC tournament is the biggest accomplishment of any team this season unless the winner of Bates-Trinity ends up going to the Final Four. I just want to point out that counting out teams because they haven’t been playing well lately can make you look stupid. That is what Bates did to me as I picked against them twice.

Point Guards Jayde Dawson ’18 and Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst)

As good as Reid Berman '17 was on Friday, he struggled on Saturday and sat out for much of the second half with foul trouble. (Courtesy of Amherst Sports Information/NESCAC.com)
As good as Reid Berman ’17 was on Friday, he struggled on Saturday and sat out for much of the second half with foul trouble. (Courtesy of Amherst Sports Information/NESCAC.com)

If you have read us all season, you know how much we have focused on the point guard situation for Amherst since the graduation of Aaron Toomey ’14. First, we do need to acknowledge that Berman played a fantastic game on Friday finishing with a career high 28 points. Unfortunately on Saturday neither point guard had a very good game which was just part of the reason why Amherst lost. The Jeffs ran into a St. John Fisher team that shot the ball lights out from deep (22-23 from the line too), and they couldn’t keep up because their offense was too disjointed. Dawson and Berman combined for 13 points, five assists, and six turnovers.

Bowdoin

Of course Bowdoin didn’t play this weekend, but it must have hurt the Polar Bears to watch Bates advance to the Sweet 16 and not just because Bates and Bowdoin are such bitter rivals. After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Bowdoin demolished Bates 98-70 in Brunswick in a game that showed just how good the Polar Bears were. However, they missed out on the tournament by a couple of spots and ended up at home this weekend. The Polar Bears still might have had to win the NESCAC tournament just to make it into the Dance though. Bowdoin will not enjoy watching Bates take on Trinity, a team they lost to by one point.

 

Fun Facts from This Weekend’s NCAA Action

It was a shame to see the season end for the NESCAC Champ Wesleyan Cardinals and Amherst, but all NESCAC fans will have something to watch this Friday night when Trinity and Bates play for a shot at the Elite Eight and, potentially, a date with top-five Sectional host Babson. More on that to come, but right now here’s a couple quick hitters from a wild weekend of NCAA basketball for the NESCAC.

– Amherst’s Connor Green ’16 struggled offensively down the stretch, but he did manage to sink two trey balls in the Jeffs’ season-ending loss, giving him 78 on the season. That’s the highest total in the NESCAC this season, and one more than teammate Jeff Racy ’17 and Jack Mackey ’16 had on the year. The Jeff scoring leader also finished with 464 points on the season, third in the NESCAC and 73 behind scoring champ Lucas Hausman ’16.

– Mike Boornazian ’16 hit three free throws with 2:58 left in the second half last night to give him 17 points on the game and 1,000 in his career. With that make he joined teammate Graham Safford ’15, Williams’ Dan Wohl ’15 and Green as the players who shot their way into the 1,000 point club this season. On the list of departing seniors who got close are Dylan Sinnickson ’15 (884, and he didn’t play his sophomore season), John Swords ’15 (923), Hunter Merryman ’15 (948, just 51 in his freshman year), and, in gut-wrenching fashion, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, who scored 999 points in the midst of an injury-riddled career.

– Bates and Trinity are meeting in the Sweet 16 this Friday night. Two NESCAC teams haven’t met that deep into the NCAA Tournament since … oh yeah, last year’s Final Four, when Williams dominated Amherst in the semifinal, avenging three regular season losses to the Jeffs.

– More Bates news! The victory on Saturday was the Bobcats’ 21st of the year, a new program record. The previous high was 20, achieved in 2005-06 under current Wesleyan Head Coach Joe Reilly.

– Speaking of wins records and Wesleyan, the Cards finished the season at 19-9, one win shy of tying the program record set in 2011-12 when Wesleyan went 20-6.

– Friday was the first time that Amherst had played an NCAA First Round game since 2011. The Jeffs received a bye and hosted a Regional for three years from 2012-2014. The loss also stops a run of two straight Final Four appearances for Amherst. The Jeffs are now 37-17 all time in the NCAA Tournament.

– The Bantams hadn’t won an NCAA Tournament First Round game since 2004 when they beat Lasell but lost in the Second Round. The last Elite Eight trip for Trinity came in 1999, and the last Final Four in 1995. Trinity is now 10-8 all time in the NCAA Tournament.

Hope you enjoyed these fun facts. Let us know if we missed any historic events this weekend!

The Champions Have Returned: Wesleyan Baseball Season Preview

2014 Record: 31-13 (10-2 NESCAC, First in NESCAC West, First in Little Three)

Postseason Outcomes: NESCAC Champions, Second at Moosic, Pa. Regional

Returning Starters: 11 (9 Position Players, 2 Starting Pitchers)

Projected Starting Lineup:

DH Robby Harbison ’17
2B Andrew Yin ’15
CF Donnie Cimino ’15
1B Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15
RF Jonathan Dennett ’15
SS Guy Davidson ’16
3B Ellis Schaefer ’17
LF Ben Hoynes ’15
C Nick Miceli ’17

LHP Nick Cooney ’15
RHP Gavin Pittore ’16

Offensive Overview:

After powering through the NESCAC last year and earning a school-record 31 wins, Wesleyan will return all nine players in their starting lineup this year. Expected to continue his dominance at the plate is Sam Goodwin-Boyd. Last season he tormented opposing pitchers while hitting .327 with five home runs and 44 RBIs. Goodwin-Boyd also runs well for a big guy (6’5″ 235 lbs). But the Cardinals’ offense does not stop there. Also returning to the lineup with high expectations are 2B Andrew Yin ’15, two-sport star Donnie Cimino, Jonathan Dennett and Robby Harbison, who all batted above .320 last season. Junior transfer Marco Baratta ’16 also hopes to make an impact on the lineup in 2015 by getting some at bats in the outfield.

Wesleyan captured the program's first ever NESCAC title in 2014. (Courtesy of Tufts Sports Information/NESCAC.com)
Wesleyan captured the program’s first ever NESCAC title in 2014. (Courtesy of Tufts Sports Information/NESCAC.com)

Defensive Overview:

In the field Wesleyan returns all nine positions players and will be anchored by three All-NESCAC performers in Cimino (CF), Goodwin-Boyd (1B) and Guy Davidson (SS). Cimino, Goodwin-Boyd and Davidson all look to improve on last season’s success after playing summer ball in the prestigious Cape Cod League and Futures League. Pitcher/catcher Nick Miceli played some competitive summer ball as well, plying his trade in the New England College Baseball League, and hopes to build on a strong freshman campaign. Returning all nine field players will be key for the chemistry of a squad that has championship hopes again.

Pitching Overview:

Nick Cooney '15 (left) and Gavin PIttore '16 (right) got a taste of the Cape League this summer on the heels of their 2014 success. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Nick Cooney ’15 (left) and Gavin PIttore ’16 (right) got a taste of the Cape League this summer on the heels of their 2014 success. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

On the mound Wesleyan will rely on returning starters Nick Cooney and Gavin Pittore ’16 to carry them through the campaign. Cooney was an All-NESCAC selection in 2014. Both Cooney and Pittore pitched in the Cape Cod League, bringing the total number of Wesleyan players in NCAA-sanctioned summer leagues to seven. The bullpen depth appears to be another strong point for he Cardinals in 2015 as well. Sam Elias ’15, another NECBL player, and Pete Rantz ’16 figure to make numerous relief appearances, though Rantz could compete for a starting job as he toed the rubber for seven starts last season. Elias and his devastating splitter accounted for a 9.27 K/9 ratio over 43.2 IP in which he earned four saves to lead the team. His 1.03 BB/9 rate was among the league’s best as well.

Story Lines to Watch

1. Can Wesleyan avoid the Championship hangover?

After last year’s historic season, the Cardinals will look to be even more dominant. The 2014 NESCAC title was the first in school history and the birth into the NCAA tournament the first since 1994. If Wesleyan hopes to continue this excellence they will need their established stars to step up again this year. After dropping the first game in the 2014 NESCAC championship 10-0 against Tufts, they showed incredible resilience to take the next two games. Coach Mark Woodworth has developed a formula for success that is not always pretty, but certainty is effective.

2. Can Wesleyan return to the World Series for the first time in over 20 years?

Last year’s NESCAC Championship certainty makes the Cards a contender to return to the playoffs again. With a cadre of returning starters the team appears to be in prime position to make a deeper run into the playoffs. If the Cards make the tournament again how far can they go? Can they reach the bar set by the 1994 Division-III runners-up? Can they win it all? Either way there is definitely something special brewing in Middletown.

3. How will Wesleyan’s 150th season celebration affect their performance?

This year will mark the 150th season of Wesleyan baseball. To celebrate the historic occasion the Cardinals will play Yale, their first ever opponent, in a regular season match up in April. They will also honor the tradition with a historic anniversary game on September 26, 2015. Will Wesleyan be able to create even more history with an incredible run into the NCAA tournament? Whatever the outcome, the 2015 season will prove to be a historic campaign.

4. How will Wesleyan stack up against top-flight competition?

In the D3baseball.com/National College Baseball Writers’ Association Preseason Poll the Tufts Jumbos were the only NESCAC team to make it into the rankings, but Wesleyan received a good chunk of votes. Now after two weeks of inactivity some of those Cardinals votes have shifted elsewhere, but still Wesleyan is right on the cusp of breaking into the top 25. The Cards’ spring break schedule includes games against No. 5 Cal Lutheran (8-1) and No. 14 Linfield (9-5) as well as two games in Pomona against Pomona-Pitzer (11-3) who is unranked but is receiving votes. If Wesleyan returns from its westward sojourn with a couple of victories against these teams then the NESCAC better get ready.

Biggest Series: Home-and-home against Amherst April 24 and 25.

Most NESCAC weekend series are played at a single site, but Amherst and Wesleyan have turned this into a home-and-home affair. Last year the Cards beat the Jeffs in Amherst and then split the pair in Middletown. Both teams expect to be competing for the NESCAC West title this season, so for Wesleyan it will be important to win the Friday bout in Connecticut before driving up to Amherst for the Saturday doubleheader.

NCAA Second Round Preview: Amherst College vs. No. 20 St. John Fisher College

Game Information: Amherst (21-7) at St. John Fisher (24-4)

Saturday, March 7, 7:00 PM

Manning and Napier Varsity Gym, St. John Fisher College, Rochester, NY

Live Stats  Video

Meet Optimystik Kinard '15, the 6'6" forward who shot St. John Fisher into the Round of 32. (Courtesy of St. John Fisher Athletics)
Meet Optimystik Kinard ’15, the 6’6″ forward who shot St. John Fisher into the Round of 32. (Courtesy of St. John Fisher Athletics)

We nailed the prediction for Amherst winning their first round matchup with Sage comfortably, but I can’t pretend like we foresaw 28 points in 21 minutes from Reid Berman ’17 and 19 really disastrous minutes from Jayde Dawson ’18. We got a little frustrated with the self-proclaimed “most controversial Division III sports broadcast” last night (you can look for the conversation yourself if you so desire), but they weren’t wrong on one point.

It was starting to look like Dawson was going to overtake Berman for the NCAA stretch, but now we don’t know what to think, and I don’t think that Coach David Hixon knows any better than we do. As long as the two young point men keep trading good games, Amherst will be fine. It’s when they both struggle on the same night that it will become an issue.

No. 18 WPI had no chance last night against a No. 20 St. John Fisher team that shot 13-17 from deep, six of those coming from Optimystik Kindard ’15, who didn’t miss a trey ball, and he knew how to pay his respects.

The Engineers packed the paint against Keegan Ryan ’17, the Cardinals’ leading scorer, which worked because Ryan had as many turnovers as points (three), but his teammates picked up the slack.

Three Storylines to Watch

1. The Amherst point guard conundrum

Berman will likely start, as he has for the last 12 Jeff games, but expect the minutes to be shared equally, at least in the first half, between Berman and Dawson. After halftime, Coach Hixon is likely to go with the hot hand. Berman is a great distributor and has been the more consistent of the pair, but Dawson brings more to the court from a scoring perspective and on defense, although you wouldn’t know it from watching last night’s game.

Jayde Dawson '18 brings a potent offensive skill set to the Amherst offense. It just doesn't always show up on game night. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Jayde Dawson ’18 brings a potent offensive skill set to the Amherst offense. It just doesn’t always show up on game night. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

2. Three point shooting from both teams

Amherst is among the top 20 teams in the nation in three point attempts, and hits a respectable 37.4 percent of its tries. St. John Fisher, meanwhile, takes a lot less threes, but hits at a slightly higher clip (38.9 percent). As we mentioned, the Cards were unstoppable from deep last night, but Coach Hixon believes that WPI didn’t do itself any favors on defense. He has instructed his players to lay off the weak side help and gamble a bit more on long passes, which will make it easier for his wing players to close out on potential shooters. The question is whether that will open up more looks for Ryan, the 6’7″ 235 lbs. center. In addition to Kinard, who is shooting 40.0 percent on the year from deep, Adam Ambielli ’15 and Tyler Hart ’16 both shoot over 40 percent from beyond the arch and might be more dangerous than the lengthy Kinard.

3. Rebounding battle

Somewhat tied in to the above, Amherst should dominate in the rebounding category. The Jeffs have a rebounding margin of +5.2 on the season, and the Cards +5.4, but Amherst was one of the better rebounding teams in the NESCAC while St. John Fisher was at the bottom of the Empire 8. The Cards lack front court depth beyond Ryan. Coach Rob Kornaker basically runs a six-man rotation, but gives about 10 minutes per game to reserve big man Zach Ottaway ’17. There is a significant drop off from Ryan to Ottaway, and aside from those two the only player with significant minutes over 6’1″ is Kinard, who is not an inside player and at 6’6″ 195 lbs. can be pushed around. Not only does Amherst have two strong big men in George and Conklin, but Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 are great rebounding guards and will have height advantages over their defenders. For St. John Fisher to hang in this game they will have to somehow eliminate second chance looks off of missed three pointers from the Jeffs.

Amherst X-Factor: Guard Connor Green ’16

Coach Hixon put it best when he said that Green is “lost right now” on offense. Through the first game of the NESCAC Tournament Green was giving Lucas Hausman ’16 a run for his money for the title of hottest shooter in the ‘CAC. Since then, though, Green has 24 points in three games on 18.4 percent (7-38) shooting and 11.1 percent (2-18) from deep. Green was even benched for the majority of the second half of the NESCAC title game against Wesleyan. This is a game where Green could make an impact even if he isn’t scoring, but Amherst needs to get him going if they hope to return to the Final Four.

Connor Green '16 averages 16.2 points per game, but he's been far removed from that type of production as of late. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Connor Green ’16 averages 16.2 points per game, but he’s been far removed from that type of production as of late. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

St. John Fisher X-Factor: Point Guard Chaz Lott ’16

This is a close call, because the Cards spread the ball around extremely well. On the season, six players are averaging between 8.5 and 15.4 points per game. But Lott runs the offense for Coach Kornaker, and is an all-around player, averaging 10.6 PPG, 6.1 APG with a 2.2 A/TO and 5.0 RPG. What’s more, Lott will be responsible for locking down Amherst’s point guard, whoever that happens to be at the time. If Lott can shut down Berman/Dawson, that puts the pressure on Green to score buckets, and we should find out pretty quickly if the junior member of the 1,000 point club has his stroke back.

Prediction

Wow, this is tough. What if both Amherst point guards have off nights? What if Connor Green can’t put it together? What if Eric Conklin reverts back to his pre-NESCAC Tournament self. What if Keegan Ryan is too much for David George? That’s a lot of “What ifs,” and despite all of that I am still confident in Amherst moving on to the Sweet 16. I feel strongly that they would whoop Sage last night, and I’m sticking by the Jeffs. It’s no secret that Amherst is packed with talent, but it’s been a matter of inexperience this season. Amherst has no seniors among its rotation, and Green is the only junior that gets significant minutes (Ray Barry ’16 has gotten minutes at times and Ben Pollack ’16 would be a factor if not for injury). Still, the lights were not too bright for Amherst last night, and I don’t think they will be fazed this evening, either. I expect the rebounding margin to be heavily tilted in Amherst’s favor, which alone should keep the score tight.

Amherst 75 – St. John Fisher 67

NCAA Second Round Preview: Bates College at No. 17 Stockton University

Game Information: Bates (20-6) at Stockton (23-5)

Saturday, March 7, 7:00 PM

Sports Center at Stockton University, Galloway, NJ

Live Stats   Video

The prize for winning in the first round is turning right around 24 hours later and doing it all over again. In Bates’ first NCAA tournament in more than 50 years, The Bobcats turned on the jets and shook off some late turnovers to win 92-80 over St. Vincent. In the late game Stockton, the host of the regional, took care of business easily against Endicott winning by 20. This will now be the second straight year that Stockton will take on a NESCAC team. Last season Stockton (then called Richard Stockton … that took us a while to figure out.) beat Bowdoin in the first round of the tournament before going on to shock a highly ranked Cabrini team and making the Sweet 16.

Josh Blamon '15 dropped 24 points and grabbed five boards in Stockton's opening round victory. (Courtesy of Stockton Athletics)
Josh Blamon ’15 dropped 24 points and grabbed five boards in Stockton’s opening round victory. (Courtesy of Stockton Athletics)

However, much more than just the university name has changed. Bates shouldn’t even bother asking Bowdoin Coach Tim Gilbride about the Ospreys because only two players who scored for Stockton last year are still on the roster. Most of the players from last years team either graduated or or no longer with the team for some reason or another. Yet, one of the two remaining players was Josh Blamon ’15 who just won the NJAC Player of the Year Award. The junior will likely receive All-American honors of some sort at the end of the year. He will be a challenge for Mike Boornazian ’16 and Billy Selmon ’15 to guard.

Three Storylines to Watch

1. Who Steps up for Stockton?

Stockton is pretty much a two-man show with Blamon and junior transfer Armin Cane ’16 being the only two consistent scoring threats. The third highest scorer is Marcus Harmon ’18 with only 7.3 PPG. The Ospreys have managed to deal with the loss of the starting point guard Nate Pacius ’16 for the year, but they will need others to step up. Cane and Blamon will score points, I am sure of that, but if Bates gets anywhere close to the 92 they put up yesterday, there is no way those two alone can carry the load. Whoever it is doesn’t need to go off, but they need to hit a couple of threes and maybe get to the line a couple of times just so that Bates can’t gear its defense at two guys.

 2. Does Bates shoot well again?

Nobody on the Bates roster is really a knockdown shooter. But it feels like when one player starts to see the ball go through the hoop, other Bobcats gain a little more confidence and hit more shots too. Yesterday, Boornazian, Safford and Adam Philpott ’15 each hit multiple threes, but nobody else was able to hit shots from deep. The Bobcats should be comfortable in the Stockton gym after having a couple of practices and a game there the last few days. Hitting threes is critical for Bates in the half court offense where they can sometimes become too reliant on Safford driving and him scoring or someone else getting an offensive rebound underneath. Selmon did not hit a three yesterday, and he is a guy capable of hitting a bunch in a row if he gets going.

The Stockton faithful will be louder than ever as the Ospreys play for a Sweet 16 berth. (Courtesy of Stockton Athletics)
The Stockton faithful will be louder than ever as the Ospreys play for a Sweet 16 berth. (Courtesy of Stockton Athletics)

3. Will fatigue be a factor?

Midway through the second half when Bates was up 20, I was hoping that they would be able to extend the lead a little more so that guys like Safford and Boornazian would be able to get just a little more rest than usual. That didn’t happen, but both of them looked fresh down the stretch. The turnaround for NCAA games is very quick. Bates might actually might have a slight advantage in that they get to sleep at a quiet hotel while Stockton players had to sleep around friends celebrating their Friday nights. It will be hard to tell by watching the game how fatigued players are because they will be loathe to not play hard. Instead look at how each team shoots and how many turnovers they have to get some a handle on really how much gas they have in the tank.

Bates X-Factor: Point Guard Graham Safford ’15

As good as Safford has been at points this season, yesterday was his first time scoring 30 points this season. Granted, he only got to that mark because St. Vincent kept fouling and sending him to the free throw line in the waning minutes. Still, he looked comfortable getting into the lane and scored on a number of nice layups. He also managed to hand out 10 assists compared to three turnovers. He was also able to get just a little bit of rest. As we mentioned before, the fact that the NCAA insists on every game having media timeouts every four minutes of game time is a huge boon for Safford. The senior certainly knows that this could be his last game, but it is hard to tell because he maintains such a cool demeanor most of the time.

As always, Graham Safford '15 will be the driving force behind the Bobcats attack. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover/Bates College Athletics)
As always, Graham Safford ’15 will be the driving force behind the Bobcats attack. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover/Bates College Athletics)

Stockton X-Factor: Forward Anthony Woodward ’15

Marcus and Malcolm Delpeche ’17 both enjoyed solid games before both fouling out down the stretch. They will once again enjoy a height advantage over Stockton, but it will not be nearly as pronounced Woodward is one of several 6’5″ players for Stockton, and he is their best rebounder. After coming off the bench last season, he has started almost every game and averages 5.9 RPG in 26.6 MPG. The NJAC is known as a hard-nosed league so Woodward will be ready to use his body down low. Stockton is not a great rebounding team overall, and Bates just had a rebounding margin of +11 yesterday. Woodward needs to be a force in the paint to neutralize the advantage Bates has inside.

Prediction:

Bates certainly looked better yesterday than they had in a couple of weeks, but their inability to put St. Vincent away left a sour taste in my mouth. Without one of the Delpeche brothers in the game, the Bates interior defense melted away.  Obviously it was somewhat flukish that both of them fouled out, but there were way too many easy layups in the second half for St. Vincent. Bates has already exceeded our expectations for them by winning their first round game. They relied heavily on Boornazian and Safford yesterday in pretty much every facet of the game. The two combined for 52 points, and we know they are capable of doing that again.

The Bobcats proved us wrong yesterday, and we hope they prove us wrong again, but Stockton is too good of a team to lose on their home-court in this situation. Even though if you look at the statistics Stockton does not look like a 23-5 team, they know how to win close games. With a go-to scorer in Blamon and a home crowd behind them, Stockton should be able to get past the Bobcats.

Prediction: 71 Stockon – 64 Bates

NCAA Second Round Preview: Salisbury University vs. Trinity College

Game Information: Trinity (21-6) vs. Salisbury (21-7)

Saturday, March 7, 7:00 PM

Oosting’s Gymnasium at Trinity College, Hartford, CT

Live Stats  Video

What an amazing first round of NCAA Tourney games all across the country. It was only day one and we already know that there will be a new team cutting down the nets as Wisconsin-Whitewater lost on a three-pointer at the buzzer. Three NESCAC teams moved on to the Round of 32 as Wesleyan was the only team to fall last night. Trinity was able to muscle past a tough Colby-Sawyer team who was up 24-8 at one point. The Bantams survived thanks to gritty performances by senior center George Papadeas ’15 (Athens, Greece) and Alex Conaway ’15 (New Haven, CT). They move on to play a Salisbury team that beat Eastern Connecticut 66-54 in the evening’s first matchup. Salisbury rode the back of junior big man Wyatt Smith (Abingdon, MD) who put up a game high 37 points and brought down nine boards. These two teams have never met before and will square off tonight at 7:00 PM in Hartford, CT.

 

The Trinity crowd is ready to cheer on the Bantams for one last time at Oostings Gym. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
The Trinity crowd is ready to cheer on the Bantams for one last time at Oosting’s Gym. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) For more photos of the game, Trinity has a full gallery here.

How Did They Advance?

Trinity

Trinity had a terrible first half yet somehow managed to head into the locker room on a 15-6 run that cut the Colby-Sawyer lead to 30-23. Colby-Sawyer’s leading scorer and NAC Player of the Year Peter Donato ’16 (Portland, ME) scored 21 points and pulled down nine rebounds. He was helped out by Wol Majong ’16 (Manchester, NH) who had 11 points, but the rest of the Chargers didn’t contribute much. The Bantams opened up the second half with a flurry of baskets from Conaway, Papadeas, Shay Ajayi ’16 (Brooklyn, NY) and Jaquann Starks ’16 (Hartford, CT) and looked like a different team. Papadeas was all over the place with hustle play after hustle play, and a big dunk from Conaway got a once depleted fan section back in business.

Andrew Hurd ’16 came off the bench and provided major quality minutes for the Bants, moving Starks off the ball. Hurd finished with a very solid stat line of eight points, four steals and five assists. Four Bants finished with double digits (Conaway, Ajayi, Papadeas, Starks). Trinity had an uncharacteristically bad night from the free throw line going 15-23 (65.2 percent) but managed to hit some big ones late in the game to ice it.

Salisbury

This part of tonight’s preview could be completed in two words (Wyatt Smith) but let’s try and stretch this out a bit. Smith put up 37 and nine on 16-20 shooting. Guard Gordon Jeter ’17 (Easton, MD) helped put up his share of buckets tallying 14 points and nine rebounds, but past those two, the Sea Gulls got little to nothing from anyone else. Eastern Connecticut had two players put up 10 apiece but struggled from an offensive standpoint. The Warriors shot a dismal 31.7 percent from the field (19-60) and allowed Smith to have a field day in the paint.

Smith came into the game averaging a little over 12 points per game, one of only two Salisbury players averaging double digits. But Smith was a man among boys tonight against the Warriors. Anytime he touched the ball in the paint, he was going to get his and Eastern Connecticut didn’t have anyone to put up a fight against him.

Players to Watch

Trinity

C, George Papadeas, Senior, 6’8″ 228 lbs.: Ed Ogundeko ’17 (Brooklyn, NY) had an off night and was battling a foot injury all week. That didn’t matter last night because the Greek big man willed the team to victory. Papadeas is a high motor player and a very strong post presence. With Ogundeko banged up, Papadeas will have to play like he did in the second half for a full 40 minutes on Saturday night if the Bantams want to move on to the Sweet 16. As a fan though, it will be very fun to see him battle it out against Smith in the post all night.

F, Shay Ajayi, Junior, 6’6″ 203 lbs. Ajayi will cause issues for Salisbury simply because of his height. Smith is Salisbury’s sole talented big man and he will be occupied with Papadeas and Ogundeko all night so Ajayi will be able to get open and get to the basket if he so desires. Along with Ajayi, Conaway should play a pivotal role in this game as he is also a 6’6″ swingman and will be a problem for whichever Sea Gull he guards.

Salisbury

C, Wyatt Smith, Junior, 6’5″ 215 lbs. Smith’s back has to be hurting from carrying Salisbury on Friday, and if I were a betting man, I would lay the house on Salisbury feeding the Washington, DC native his share of the ball again on Saturday. Smith will no doubt be a force in the paint, but he will meet a more formidable pair of opponents in Papadeas and Ogundeko. Smith has very soft hands and great touch for a big man so he has a repertoire of moves to bring out against the Bantams.

G, Gordon Jeter, Sophmore, 6’5″ 175 lbs. Jeter needs to have a big game to help Smith out in leading the Sea Gulls on offense. The sophomore from Maryland’s Eastern Shore will cause issues for Trinity as he is a 6’5″ guard who can shoot the ball and drive the lane to create fouls. Jeter is averaging 8.2 points a game but will need to put up a lot more than that to see Salisbury get to the Sweet 16.

Prediction

This game has only two distinct scenarios that I possibly see happening. Salisbury beat a Eastern Connecticut team that struggled mightily and had its flaws, but it did so thanks to two players. Wyatt Smith is a beast; that is not up for discussion. He will score a lot of points on Saturday night. But will anyone else for the Sea Gulls? I feel like Trinity will come out firing on all cylinders now that they have that first win under their belt in front of their home crowd. Home court definitely played into their win on Friday as the team helped get the place going in the second half. If Trinity struggles to get things going on offense however, and allows Salisbury to stay in the game, anything can happen. That being said, I just don’t see how a Salisbury team with only two players averaging double figures can outperform a Bantams team that has so many scoring options. All things considered…

Trinity 68 – Salisbury 57                  

NCAA First Round Preview: Bates College vs. St. Vincent College

Game Information: Bates (19-6) vs. St. Vincent (22-6)

Friday, March 6, 5:30 PM

Stockton Sports Center at Richard Stockton College of New Jersey, Galloway, NJ

Live Stats  Video

Adam Philpott '15 (22) and Cam Kaubris '15 (13) haven't had much to cheer about recently. Bates hasn't played since February 21, a NESCAC Quarterfinal loss to Wesleyan. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover/Bates Athletics)
Adam Philpott ’15 (22) and Cam Kaubris ’15 (13) haven’t had much to cheer about recently. Bates hasn’t played since February 21, a NESCAC Quarterfinal loss to Wesleyan. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover/Bates Athletics)

Now in their fifth year being eligible for the NCAA Tournament, the Saint Vincent College Bearcats are going to the dance for the third time. For the third year in a row, St. Vincent, under the tutelage of D.P. Harris, won the Presidents’ Athletic Conference title game and earned an automatic bid to the tournament. The Bearcats beat some highly ranked teams this year in Catholic (25-3) and Mount Union (22-6), and their two conferences losses came by a total of six points. Like the majority of the opponents of NESCAC teams in the NCAA tournament, St. Vincent hasn’t played as strong of a schedule as their opponents, but they also come into the Tournament on an eight-game winning streak.

For Bates, the chance to dance is the College’s first since 1961, when Bates played in the NCAA College Division Tournament. The Bobcats and Coach Jon Furbush were holding their breath while waiting to see if they would get invited to the NCAA Tournament.

“I didn’t get a lot of sleep, which I know was the same for a lot of the guys on the team; we were real excited,” Mike Boornazian ’16 said, “Hearing the news, we all just went nuts. I kind of blacked out for about 10 seconds after that. It’s just an honor to be a part of the first team in Bates history to make it. I’m just real excited for this opportunity.”

Three Storylines to Watch:

1. The Resilience of Pat Jones ’16

Strictly speaking on-the-court, Jones has improved leaps and bounds as a player this season, improving on last season’s totals of 5.3 PPG and 3.5 RPG to playing nearly 30 minutes per game and averaging 13.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG in 2014-15. What’s more incredible, though, is that Jones’ mother passed away from cancer at the beginning of this season and that he’s been able to set that aside and, as Coach Harris said, find solace in the game of basketball. Pat Jones’ strength and the way in which his teammates have come together around him is truly inspiring.

2. How many minutes will Graham Safford ’15 and Mike Boornazian ’16 play?

Both players went the distance in the Bobcats’ Quarterfinal loss to Wesleyan in the NESCAC Tournament and seemed worn out by the end. Safford is used to playing nearly the entire game (36.6 MPG), and surely he would never ask to be taken out, but there is no doubt that both his and Boornazian’s legs got a little weary down the stretch. Safford is shooting just 35.1 percent from the field (26-74) in his last six games. Boornazian has kept his production up over that stretch, though. Making Safford work on the defensive end of the floor is also critical in wearing him down over the course of the game. A full two weeks of rest and the extra media timeouts that exist only in the NCAA tournament should keep both guards pretty fresh.

3. Can Bates defend the three?

The Bobcats did a great job of this during the season, holding teams below 30 percent from the arch. But, Jones, Ben Klimchock ’16 and JC Howard ’16 are all deadly from three, so the onus will be on Safford, Boornazian and defensive whiz Billy Selmon ’15 to shut down the long-range shooting attack of the Bearcats. As a team, the Bearcats shot 37.2 percent from three with Jones, Klimchock, and Howard doing the vast majority of the damage.

Bates X-Factors: Take Care of the Ball

The Bobcats are tied for the second most turnovers per game in the NESCAC. Though often an under appreciated part of the game, not turning the ball over is a huge part of being efficient on offense. Bates tends to play at a slower pace making turnovers all the more important for the Bobcats to not give up possessions. For everything great that Safford does for Bates, he led the NESCAC in turnovers with 3.7 per game. He tends to press sometimes and get too deep into the paint without having a great idea of where he is going with the ball. The time off means Bates is more rested, but we also tend to see teams show early signs of not having played in a while. It is unlikely that the extra week off has added much rust, but if it has then Bates will struggle to keep up.

St. Vincent X-Factor: Control the Glass

Compared to Bates, St. Vincent has a smaller front court, but they are still a strong rebounding team with an overall differential of +6.4 RPG. Although we think of Bates of having a significant advantage because of the Delpeche brothers, they actually finished pretty middle of the pack in rebounding differential. St. Vincent does a really good job of rebounding as a team which is why so many different players get rebounds. Somebody like Swartwout usually only plays about 13 MPG, but he still pulls down 3.6 RPG. If the Bearcats are able to get into the lane, their weak side rebounders will work hard to get offensive boards.

What to Expect

Will experience play a role in the outcome of this game? Possibly. Bates obviously didn’t play its best basketball in the NESCAC Quarterfinals, but maybe that disappoint will actually help the Bobcats. And St. Vincent, though they’ve been two the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons, has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game.

Expect St. Vincent to throw a myriad of defenses at Bates as they like to mix up their looks on that end. The Bearcats have a very deep bench as well. They can throw a bunch of different looks at Bates. Bobby Swartwout ’16 is 6’6″ 270 lbs. and can bully the Delpeche brothers. Sean Kett ’15, the team’s lone senior, is a high-motor, no-quit type who scores 13.0 PPG and shoots well over 50 percent. Klimchock, Jones and Howard can stretch the floor. Realistically, though, the offensive capabilities of the Bearcats players significantly falls off after Kett, Jones, Howard and point guard Jaylon Bell ’16. With both Delpeche brothers on the floor, Bates will try to neutralize Kett, forcing the Bearcats to take threes and long twos, something that the Bobcats have been fantastic at defending all season long.

Prediction:

In their third try at the NCAA Tournament, I feel as though St. Vincent will finally figure it out. Their ability to go deep in the rotation is something that Bates will struggle with. Fresh legs will keep the tempo up and Bates will start to fade. Jones’ diverse game will be a problem for Bates, and on the other end I see Bates fighting to get into a rhythm while St. Vincent mixes up its looks. Too often this season the Bobcats have handed the ball to Safford and gotten out of the way. I don’t think that flies against this team. If we land all of our predictions, Bates will be the only NESCAC team not playing on Saturday, which would have been a surprise before two weekends ago when the Bobcats could have been considered the favorites to win the NESCAC Tournament.

St. Vincent 75 – Bates 68

NCAA First Round Preview: Wesleyan University vs. Skidmore College

Game Information: Wesleyan (19-8) vs. Skidmore (19-7)

Friday, March 6, 5:30 PM

Goldfrab Gym at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD

Live Stats  Video

In case you hadn’t heard, Wesleyan University is playing in its first ever NCAA Division-III Tournament, and they’re pretty excited about it.

The Cardinals come into this game playing their best basketball of the season, having won five straight and sweeping through NCAA Tournament teams Bates, Trinity and Amherst on the way to Wesleyan’s first-ever NESCAC title. Jack Mackey ’16 was awarded NESCAC Player of the Week honors for his clutch performance last weekend, and as a unit the entire Cardinals’ roster played great defensively, especially when it counted, in all three NESCAC tournament games.

The same can be said of the Skidmore Thoroughbreds who have gone 16-2 in 2015 and return to the NCAA Tournament under fifth-year coach Joe Burke after a two-year hiatus. Skidmore leaned on a tough early-season schedule to boost its SOS, but that didn’t matter as the Thoroughbreds had no trouble winning their third Liberty League title under Coach Burke and earning an automatic bid to the big dance. Of the Thoroughbreds’ seven losses, four came early in the season to some strong competition, including two NESCAC squads. Skidmore suffered a one-point loss to #4 Babson back in November, a three-point loss to Plattsburgh St. (19-8) and then a couple of close defeats to Williams and Middlebury. The only Liberty League opponent that bested the Thoroughbreds was Hobart, which defeated Skidmore twice. Hobart was a team that didn’t shoot the ball particularly well, but played very strong defense, essentially the opposite of what Wesleyan did for most of the season.

Of the four seniors on the Skidmore roster, only two played in the 2012 NCAA Tournament and will be active on Friday night. Eric Lowry ’15 is a transfer and Perun Kovacevic ’15 hasn’t played since January 24 for personal reasons. Both Nanribet Yiljep ’15 and Connor Merrill ’15 played important roles on Skidmore’s 2011-12 tournament team but for all intents and purposes both teams are getting their first taste of the NCAA stage. That doesn’t bother Yiljep.

“Like I tell my teammates, we’re breaking records this year,” Yiljep said. “It’s the first time we hosted the Liberty League tournament at home, it’s the first time we won it at home…and we’ve never gone past the first round. That’s another record to break. Let’s just break records.”

Since Kovacevic, who had started all 13 games up to January 24, exited the lineup, Martin Bedulskij ’18 and Royce Paris ’17 have seen their roles expand, with Bedulskij taking over in the starting lineup. Paris, though, has been the bigger surprise. Since January 31 he has scored double figures in eight of 10 games. Paris’ quickness and toughness to guard one-on-one may rival that of BJ Davis ’16, believed by some to be the toughest one-on-one guard in the NESCAC.

Wesleyan X-Factors: Harry Rafferty ’17

Rafferty will likely come off the bench against Skidmore because of the Thoroughbreds’ size, but his ability to create a scoring punch in relief will be critical for Wesleyan. These teams are similar in that they play very short rotations. I think that Skidmore has the weapons to guard most of the Cardinals, but Rafferty could get lost in the sauce. Erik Sanders ’16 and Connor Merrill ’15 matchup well with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16, Aldin Medunjanin’16 will be all over Mackey, Paris can match Davis’ quickness and Bedulskij has the height to challenge shots from Joe Edmonds ’16. That doesn’t leave much in the way of someone who can stop the lefty sniper, who went cold during the NESCAC tournament but will look to breakout during the NCAAs.

Skidmore X-Factor: Aldin Medunjanin ’16

Medunjanin earned Co-Liberty League Player of the Year and in big games big players have to step up. The point guard is going to be a problem for the Cardinals, because he’s too strong and too tall for most point guards to cover, and the Wesleyan point guard triumvirate doesn’t boast exceptional height. Medunjanin plays a bit like an oversized Lucas Hausman ’16, constantly looking to drive and finish in traffic. But he also shoots the ball pretty well from deep (36.4 percent), and has better options in Sanders and Merrill to whom he can distribute the basketball.

Joe Reilly and the Cardinals celebrated their NESCAC title in classic fashion - but they're not done yet. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Connection)
Joe Reilly and the Cardinals celebrated their NESCAC title in classic fashion – but they’re not done yet. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Connection)

Storylines to Watch

1. Effect of the weather

Weather isn’t usually a factor in basketball games, but when it forces the Skidmore team bus to sit idle in the middle of the Jersey Turnpike, weather becomes a big story. Skidmore’s bus ride to Johns Hopkins was delayed for hours on Thursday afternoon, making the chances of the team getting an opportunity to practice on the Goldfarb Gym floor on Thursday night highly unlikely. Wesleyan, meanwhile, arrived at Johns Hopkins around dinner time, leaving plenty of time to get a feel for the court.

2. Can Skidmore stop the three ball?

Skidmore’s calling card all year has been defense. The Thoroughbreds boast the fifth-best field goal percentage defense in Division-III, but that stat is bolstered by the fact that they shut down a lot of mediocre Liberty League teams. But make no mistake, Skidmore also held Middlebury to 57 points and Plattsburgh St. to 60, so that defense is no fluke. Coach Burke confirmed, however, that if Wesleyan gets hot from beyond the arch they are very difficult to beat, and with four of the NESCAC’s better three-ball shooters in Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Edmonds, stopping that facet of Wesleyan’s game is a tall order.

3. Who can guard the athletic big man, Erik Sanders ’16?

Sanders is listed at 6’5″, 190 lbs., similar to Wesleyan’s Epps who is 6’4″, 210 lbs. However, Epps might have a tough time guarding Sanders, who handles the ball as well as a lot of guards. We understand it’s a highlight, and of course it’s going to make him look good, but go to the 1:30 mark of the below video interview with Skidmore Coach Joe Burke to get an idea of how versatile Sanders’ game is.

What to Expect

As always, Wesleyan’s success will be dictated by how well they shoot the basketball. Even on a poor shooting day Wesleyan can win, but it will be much tougher to do. Medunjanin really creates a matchup issue for Wesleyan, but on the flip side I doubt that Skidmore has played a team with as many shooting weapons as Wesleyan and they’ll have to adjust to that style. Expect some first time jitters from both sides, which is fair on a stage this big.

Also, let’s give a little love to the Cardinal big men, Kuo and Epps. Aside from producing a myriad of highlight reel dunks, Kuo has been very efficient offensively recently and Epps is a workhorse that grabs a lot of boards without great height. In the end, I have to tip the big man advantage Skidmore’s way. I mean, the Thoroughbreds have two All-Liberty League players in their front court. But the margin isn’t huge, which is why this game will be won by guard play.

The Cards aren't the only team that enjoyed a nice court storming last weekend. Skidmore is also coming off of a conference championship. (Courtesy of Skidmore Athletics)
The Cards aren’t the only team that enjoyed a nice court storming last weekend. Skidmore is also coming off of a conference championship. (Courtesy of Skidmore Athletics)

Prediction:

I’ve watched a good amount of Wesleyan basketball this year, which means I know how good they can be. But I also recognize their flaws. So does that mean I end up overrating or underrating the Cardinals? I suppose only the outcome of tonight’s game will tell. I’m predicting that the magic continues for Wesleyan. I think they’ve shown that they can beat high quality teams time and time again, unlike Skidmore, who played a lot of very good teams tightly but couldn’t quite squeeze out the victory. In terms of X’s and O’s, for me the back court advantage for Wesleyan outweighs the front court advantage for Skidmore. Go Wes go!

Wesleyan 61 – Skidmore 53