Aaron Rosen – Nothing But NESCAC

Pivoting to the East: Baseball Weekend Preview 4/17

The Polar Bears welcome Trinity to Maine this weekend, in a series that could spell the end for either teams' hopes of making a playoff push. (Courtesy of Tom Van Zant/Bowdoin Athletics) — The Polar Bears welcome Trinity to Maine this weekend, in a series that could spell the end for either teams’ hopes of making a playoff push. (Courtesy of Tom Van Zant/Bowdoin Athletics)

All the drama this weekend will come from two East Divisional series in Maine, a state that to this point has seen only three NESCAC games. Unless the rain gets in the way and postpones games, this weekend should see that number double as Trinity travels to Bowdoin and Tufts visits Colby.

Unless Hamilton can somehow manage to find a way to shock Amherst, Amherst and Wesleyan should continue to dominate their West Division foes. The Cardinals travel to Middlebury to take on the Panthers. Last year the Cardinals won both of the Saturday doubleheader games by only one run so do not expect Middlebury to shrink from the moment. Meanwhile, the Continentals are going to have to find some way to slow down an Amherst offense that has an insane .504 OBP and seven home runs in their six NESCAC games. Having the games in New York with the short porch in left probably won’t help.

And that is all I’m going to say about the West today. Onto the East.

Three to Watch

1. Relief Pitcher Zach Brown ’18 (Tufts)

Relievers are generally volatile and inconsistent in the NESCAC, but Brown is a critical piece for the Jumbos as their closer. Some might pause at putting such a young player in that position, but an eye-popping 1.72 ERA and 13.29 K/9 will generally make your manager trust you even if you are a freshman. Brown did get the loss last weekend against Trinity when he came in during the eighth inning with runners on first and second and no outs. He worked the bases loaded with two outs before surrendering a bases clearing double that put Trinity ahead 7-6. That isn’t going to stop Brown from getting the call again if the game is close late and the Jumbos need to lock things down.

2. Starting Pitcher Greg Ladd ’15 (Colby)

If Colby’s other two starting pitchers, Soren Hanson ’16 and Scott Goldberg ’15, are the heavy artillery of the rotation, Ladd is the sniper picking his spots. Last year he barely struck anybody out and had an ERA of 2.51, but he has struggled to maintain that level this year and has a 6.12 ERA including a 12.00 ERA in three NESCAC appearances. However, a couple of factors suggest he could shake off his struggles. First, his strikeout rate is up to an actually respectable 6.12 K/9. Second, Ladd has a WHIP of 1.28 which would indicate that he has suffered somewhat from cluster luck. Giving up two home runs explains some of that unluckiness but certainly not all of it. All three of Colby’s starters need to have good starts this weekend, but Ladd might be the biggest one of them all.

3. Second Baseman Aaron Rosen ’15 (Bowdoin)

The most consistent hitter for Bowdoin is enjoying his best season yet as a senior with a .447 OBP and .590 SLG%. After not hitting any homers before this year, he has three already including one off of Tufts’ Kyle Slinger ’15. On Tuesday, an 0-3 day in the first game of a doubleheader snapped his 12-game hitting streak, but he responded in the second game going 3-4 with a double and triple. The big knock on Rosen throughout his career has been defense, and that has carried over to this year as he already has nine errors for the season. Still, his bat more than makes up for it as he is the Polar Bears’ most important hitter in their lineup.

Predictions

Trinity (10-11, 2-4) at Bowdoin (9-14, 2-3)

Friday 3:30 PM: Jed Robinson ’16 (Trinity) vs. Henry Van Zant ’15 (Bowdoin). Saturday 12:00 PM: Sean Meekins ’15 (Trinity) vs. Harry Ridge ’16 (Bowdoin). Saturday 2:30 PM: Chris Speer ’17 (Trinity) vs. Erik Jacobsen ’15 (Bowdoin).

The Bantams and Polar Bears currently sit in the final two positions in the East, and whoever loses this series will see their playoff hopes essentially come to an end. A sweep would jolt the victor right into the thick of things for that second spot. This weekend is Bowdoin’s home opener as well.

The Friday pitching matchup in this one is very juicy with Van Zant pitching like the best in the NESCAC and Robinson sporting a 2.77 ERA. Though teams have touched Robinson up some in conference, he could still give the Polar Bear offense a little trouble . The other starters for both teams have struggled in their NESCAC games, and Van Zant is the only starter on either team to have a win. Despite those recent struggles, every pitcher in this series is more than capable of having a great start. Given that both of these offenses are below average, expect a low-scoring series.

Peter Cimini ’16 has returned and is now leading off for Bowdoin which should solidify the top of the lineup and make them much more dangerous to pitch against. The Polar Bear offense tends to falter outside of their top guys so returning Cimini instead of one of their peripheral players is a big improvement. On the other side, the Bantams are enjoying a little power surge with four home runs in their NESCAC games. Still, they remain one position behind Bowdoin in batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage. Whichever offense can string hits together and not have them scattered will give their team a big advantage.

Prediction: Bowdoin wins two of three.

Tufts (19-5, 4-2) at Colby (14-6, 3-3)

Friday 3:00 PM: TBA vs. Scott Goldberg ’15 (Colby). Saturday 12:00 PM: Tim Superko ’17 (Tufts) vs. Greg Ladd ’15 (Colby). Saturday 2:30 PM Andrew David ’16 (Tufts) vs. Soren Hanson ’16 (Colby).

See that TBA up in the probable starters section? That could or could not be Kyle Slinger, aka the 2014 NESCAC Pitcher of the Year. He was involved in a collision in Tufts’ game on Sunday and had to leave the game after one inning. Given that he also missed time earlier in the year after getting an errant throw to his head, it would not be shocking to see the Jumbos be safe and leave him out though we don’t know what specific injury he suffered at this time.

If Slinger is not able to go, senior Tom Ryan ’15 will end up starting one of the Saturday games and Superko will start on Friday. Ryan is a solid starter who threw a complete game, one-run outing on Monday against Salem State, so it’s not like the Jumbos are panicking if Slinger can’t go, but they would still prefer him to be out there because a series loss would make their playoff position suddenly precarious. A great performance from their offense would of course render any worries about the rotation mute. Connor McDavitt ’15 has been inconsistent at the plate with three homers but only a .271 AVG. However, given that he has 25 walks to make his OBP .427, he is still enjoying a very good senior year.

For Colby this is a make or break series. After dropping two of three to Bates they need to rebound and find a way to take, at the very, very least, one game. As mentioned above, their three starters all have to enjoy quality starts. The only consistent reliever the Mules have is freshman Daniel Schoenfield ’18 who admittedly has been very solid in his 10 total appearances thus far. The big problem though is that after appearing to turn a corner in March, the Mule offense has reverted back to its 2014 form and is last in the league in both average and on-base percentage. Tommy Forese ’16 is the only hitter who has hit above average in their six conference games with a .500 average and two home runs. Jason Buco ’15 continues to struggle after being the team’s offensive leader last year. The Mules are hoping this series comes down to a couple of plays that they make and the Jumbos don’t. Unfortunately for Colby, I think that the Tufts offense will do too much against the Colby pitchers.

Prediction: Tufts wins two of three.

The Great Thaw: Power Rankings 4/8

We held off on doing a Power Rankings last week because so few games had been played since the last one. Also, we had to re-watch Game of Thrones before the season premiere. Pretty standard stuff really. Before a big weekend of games, getting a Power Rankings out there is necessary.

1. Wesleyan (12-4, 3-0). Last Ranking: 1

The Cardinals have won their four games since we last made these rankings so they remain solidly at the top. Williams came close to beating Wesleyan in the final game, and in the process they reminded us that Wesleyan is far from unbeatable. What makes the Cardinals the best in the NESCAC is that they have no weaknesses. Take defense, an area where NESCAC teams often struggle to have consistency. As a team, Wesleyan has only 17 errors, the lowest in the NESCAC and good enough for the best fielding percentage as well. Even more impressive is that the Cardinals are yet to have a game where they commit more than two errors. Not making errors is sexy, and it helps win ball games.

2. Amherst (10-6, 3-0). Last Ranking: 3

Anytime you AVERAGE 20 runs per game over a three game stretch like the Jeffs did this weekend against Middlebury, we are going to take notice. Plenty of gaudy stat lines came out of it as a result, but the best one goes to NESCAC Player of the Week 2B Andrew Vandini ’16. Vandini went 8-12, walked four times, scored eight runs, knocked in 14 teammates, and hit two home runs during the weekend. He did strike out one time so there is room for improvement. The Jeffs can pretty much cement their place in the playoffs if they win their series against Williams this weekend.

3. Tufts (15-4, 2-1). Last Ranking: 2

The Jumbos drop a spot but we actually feel better about them now than we did two weeks ago. The conference loss to Bowdoin is the only one in their last 12 games, and Tufts is currently on a six-game winning streak. Kyle Slinger ’15 looked good once again this weekend against Brandeis and has now put his early season injury problems completely behind him. Also, don’t worry about Tufts striking out 112 times, the second most in the league. That’s because they employ a patient approach which is why they have 90 walks, 21 more than any other team.

4. Colby (11-4, 2-1). Last Ranking: 4

Are you buying or selling stock in Colby right now? They are 4-1 against NESCAC opponents (they won two non-conference games against Hamilton), and their one loss came on a walk-off homer. Yet, the starts of some of their offensive players are almost too good to believe. Chiefly, Tommy Forese ’16 who has hit four home runs and has an OBP of .500 after only getting 14 at-bats and hitting .214 last season. Others like Tim Corey ’15 are also enjoying big bumps in production from a year ago. The Mules have gotten somewhat limited production from Jason Buco ’15, so if others take a step back he could pick up the slack.

5. Bates (6-7, 1-1). Last Ranking: 5

The Bobcats are the slightest of smidgeons above the Polar Bears in our minds right now. The fact that the teams split a doubleheader on Sunday in which neither game was close certainly did us no favors in figuring out which team to put ahead of the other. Connor Colombo ’16 has emerged as one of the starters who will get the ball every weekend, but he has still only thrown 15.0 innings, the highest of any Bates starter. Seventeen different pitchers have thrown a full inning, a crazy high amount that shows how unsettled the pitching rotation is. Manager Mike Leonard will have to be able to push the right buttons to make sure the best guys get on the mound.

6. Bowdoin (7-11, 2-3). Last Week: 6

The overall record still does not look great, and the Polar Bears are stuck in neutral for the moment. Peter Cimini ’16 has struggled with an injury that has kept him out for most of the season, and the lineup has not hit well outside of a couple of core players like Chad Martin ’16 and Aaron Rosen ’15. Do they have a weekend where they can play well in every aspect of the game and sweep their opponent? They play at Wesleyan in a non-conference doubleheader Saturday. A good performance against the Cardinals could give them a little more confidence as they enter the stretch run.

7. Williams (6-9, 3-3). Last Ranking: 8

Getting swept by Wesleyan is not the worst thing in the world, but it does put pressure on Williams this weekend against Amherst. A series win is almost a must to keep the Ephs above .500. Both Dan Smith ’16 and Thomas Murphy ’15 have ERA’s close to 8.00, though Smith did contain the Wesleyan lineup enough to give Williams a chance in the final game of the series. The Ephs are hoping that they can keep the games more low-scoring against the fearsome Amherst lineup

8. Trinity (9-7, 1-2). Last Ranking: 7

Trinity is bringing up the rear in the East for now mostly because their offense has simply lacked punch this year. Their rotation has the third-best ERA in the league, and Jed Robinson ’16 and Nick Fusco ’18 both have ERA’s below 1.00. The problem is the offense has a NESCAC-worst .338 OBP, a full 31 percentage points worse than the second-to-last team. Besides his walk-off home run, Daniel Pidgeon ’16 has struggled at the plate with a .189 BA. He and other Bantam mainstays have to become more consistent at the dish.

9. Hamilton (7-5, 0-0). Last Ranking: 9

The final NESCAC team without a game in conference play, the Continentals are itching to get going finally. The Continentals have played only one game since returning from their Florida trip on March 24 so we have very little new information on them. Cole Dreyfuss ’16 has been a revelation with a 1.33 ERA. He has pitched more than six innings in each of his three starts which is important because the bullpen for Hamilton has struggled. They plan to travel to Middlebury for their opening series on Friday, though the opener could be pushed to Saturday because of weather.

10. Middlebury (0-12, 0-6) Last Ranking: 10

The Panthers got smacked by a very good Amherst team last weekend as they continue to struggle. The one area where Middlebury has been decent is their offense. They are sixth in OBP, but their inability to hit for power or steal bases has hamstrung the offense. Catcher Max Araya ’16 and shortstop Johnny Read ’17 are both hitting above .350 while some of the freshmen are also hitting well. The Panthers will try to get their first win against Hamilton, a team they beat twice a year ago.

Slinger Shows Impeccable Timing: Stock Report 3/31

The new New England Baseball Complex allowed for Tufts and Bowdoin to play this weekend. (Courtesy of Masslive.com)

After the first game of the weekend, Bowdoin was feeling good about stealing their series against Tufts because Henry Van Zant ’15 had just led them to a game one victory. Then the strength of the Tufts pitching staff took over. First it was Andrew David ’16 going all nine innings without allowing one run as Tufts won comfortably 6-0. The real big story, however, was Kyle Slinger ’15 shaking off an early season injury and returning to the mound for the Monday rubber game.

Like we thought might happen, Tufts’ manager John Casey took advantage of the two extra days for Slinger to recover. However, when Aaron Rosen ’15 hit a solo homer to lead off the game, it looked like Slinger might not be quite ready to go. Then he recovered and allowed no more runs the rest of the way, leading Tufts to a 10-1 win. In the top of the 7th with the score 5-1 Tufts, Slinger allowed two base runners, and the top of the lineup was coming up. Casey stuck with his stud, and Slinger struck out Rosen before getting a fly out to get out of the jam.

The series win for Tufts means they remain atop the East. Their pitching is right up there with Wesleyan for the best in the league, and they should only get healthier. The Jumbos have next weekend off from NESCAC play before heading to Trinity.

Stock Up

Catcher Bryan Egan ’15 (Tufts)

Slinger’s offensive counterpart yesterday was Egan, who went 3-4 with a homer and four RBI. The home run came in the 6th inning and was a two run shot that put the Jumbos up 5-1. Petry didn’t do much in the other games this weekend, but he does hold a season OBP of .492. Though some of it is because Tufts has played in a lot of games, Egan leads the NESCAC in RBI with 22. The senior was a part-time reserve last year behind All-NESCAC performer Nick Cutsumpas ’14. It is great to see him step up in his final year and become a crucial part of the Jumbos’ offense.

Starting Pitcher Henry Van Zant ’15 (Bowdoin)

The senior was sensational in the opening game of the the series between Tufts and Bowdoin. He went all seven innings allowing only one unearned run on only four hits. Through the first three innings he faced the minimum of nine hitters. Unlike usual, Van Zant did not strike out a lot of hitters, but he did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. The Jumbo offense has the second highest ground out/fly out ratio in the NESCAC (more exact fly ball to ground ball ratios are not available), and on Friday the ball left the ground eight times counting hits and fly outs. The one run that Tufts scored was not Van Zant’s fault at all. Bryan Egan ’15 reached second on an error by shortstop Sean Mullaney ’17. After Egan advanced on another groundball, Cody McCallum ’16 reached on an infield single with two outs to score Egan.

Utility Adam Regensburg ’18 (Williams)

In his first three games in conference play, Regensburg went 6-11 and had two hits in every game against Middlebury. Working out of the two-hole, he hit a home run in the first game and stole two bases in the final one. Regensburg also has a season long OBP of .450 which is perfect for that position in the lineup. Besides that bat, he played a different position in each game. In the first game he started in right field, second base in the second, and left field for the third. So basically Regensburg is the NESCAC equivalent of Ben Zobrist, someone who can play lots of positions and provide offense as well. Sabermetricians have been calling Zobrist criminally underrated for so long that he probably became overrated somewhere along the way. Check back in two years to decide whether Regensburg has become overrated by then. Until then, he looks like a great freshmen player for a Williams team that got a huge sweep this weekend.

Stock Down

Middlebury

It’s never a good combination to be both unlucky and not very good, and that is what Middlebury has been so far. The Panthers got walked off on in three consecutive games down in Arizona with the final one coming at the hands of Williams in the series opener. Some of the freshmen like Brendan Donahoe ’18 and Raj Palekar ’18 have made good first impressions, but the pitching is such a mess. The Panthers are now 0-9, and their schedule is front-loaded with NESCAC games so that nine of their next 11 games come against Amherst, Hamilton and Williams. When their first win comes is not easy to tell, but the odds are that it won’t be this coming weekend on the road against Amherst.

Mother Nature

For goodness sake, get it together, weather. Maybe I’m soft for complaining about the weather, but I don’t care. Whatever happened to the saying ‘March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb?’ It was snowing in Brunswick, Maine for a good few hours yesterday. Granted, it fortunately wasn’t really sticking, but the snow banks weren’t exactly dissipating either. Baseball is a sport best played in the summer of course, but we don’t have that luxury in college baseball. The weather forecast is decent for the next week, but I’m looking for some serious improvement ASAP. Nature, I really want to be able to watch a home baseball game at some point this year. Please make that happen.

Start your Engines (Sort of): Weekend Preview 3/27

Middlebury and Williams open their conference season in sunshine and heat. (Courtesy of Matthew Dickerson)

We knew all the way back in February that the snow was going to have an impact on the NESCAC schedule, and sure enough, two of the four opening series have been moved back to May. Middlebury and Williams will play in Arizona unaffected by the weather while Tufts and Bowdoin will play their games at the New England Baseball Complex in Northborough, Massachusetts. The Jumbos and Polar Bears are playing a doubleheader today before taking a couple of days off and playing the final game on Monday night.

Two to Watch

1. Starting Pitcher Tim Superko ’17 (Tufts): Three starts into the season and Superko has looked fantastic in two but got tagged in the other. One of his good starts was also against St. Joseph, who Tufts beat 20-0 so take that one with a large lump of salt. Superko’s strength is his ability to strikeout hitters. Last year, he went six innings and allowed only one run against Bowdoin in a Tufts’ win. The sophomore has some of the best pure stuff in the league. Questions about the health of Kyle Slinger ’15 and others means Superko is the only Tufts starter we know for sure will start this weekend according to Manager John Casey. That makes his start all the more important. A banged up staff needs him to go deep into his game, something that he was not great at as a freshman.

2. Outfielder Luke Pierce ’15 (Williams): The Williams offense has not gotten into gear yet mostly because of the struggles of a few key players like Pierce early on. The Ephs graduated a couple of their big boppers from a year ago, and Pierce is a more important piece than he was a year ago. Though he has one home run, his average is .217 and he is yet to draw a walk. He has only struck out three times in 23 at-bats so he is not getting overpowered or anything like that. Perhaps he has simply been putting too much pressure on himself in the early going. The slump will end soon enough, and the Ephs are hoping that this weekend is when Pierce busts out.

The Picks

Williams (3-3, 0-0) vs Middlebury (0-6, 0-0): 4:00 PM Friday (Thomas Murphy ’15 vs. Eric Truss ’15) , 2:00 PM Saturday (Luke Rodino ’17 vs. Cooper Byrne ’15) , and 5:00 PM Saturday (Dan Smith ’16 vs. TBD) in Tucson, Arizona.

Expected high for Tucson tomorrow is 92 degrees. Go ahead and let that one sink in a little.

As for baseball, the Panthers are still trying to get into the win column while Williams has looked a little shaky so far. Both staffs are riddled with question marks, and Thomas Murphy ’15 is the only starter for either team that projects as an above average pitcher. Murphy won his first start after allowing one ER in seven innings, but he had to scatter nine hits along the way. Both Dan Smith ’16 and Luke Rodino ’17 struggled in their first starts, and while they should start again this weekend, other options like Nate Michalski ’17 give the Ephs some flexibility. The struggles of the Ephs pale in comparison to those of the Panther pitchers. The Middlebury team ERA is 13.92 right now. Why they are 0-6 can be summed up in that one number.

Coach Bob Smith has yet to announce his third starter, but the ball will likely be handed to first-year Rob Erickson ’18 after a positive relief appearance on Tuesday. The big righty toss seven innings of three-run ball before tiring and allowing three runs in the bottom of the ninth against Grace University. Nevertheless, if he can toss like he did over the first seven innings of that outing, Erickson has a chance to shut down the Williams offense in Game Three. That being said, there’s no guarantee that Erickson will even be tabbed the starter.

Both offenses should put up numbers, and it will be fun to see how Dylan Sinnickson ’15 hits against NESCAC pitching. In the end Williams has more to lose, if that makes sense. Dropping a game or two to Middlebury would spell deep trouble for making the playoffs. For the Panthers, the offense will have to go off in one game to overcome their pitching.

Prediction: Williams wins two of three

Projected Starters: Friday 2:30 PM (Tim Superko ’17 vs. Henry Van Zant ’15), Friday 4:30 PM ( TBD vs. Harry Ridge ’16), Monday 7:00 PM (TBD vs. Erik Jacobsen ’15)

If you get angry when the ball gets put into play and prefer when fielders simply act as cheerleaders for the pitchers, then the (potential) matchup of Superko and Van Zant is the game for you. As noted above, Superko is a strikeout whiz, and Van Zant is just as good in that department. Van Zant has the stuff to be great this year after seeing his junior year mostly wiped out by injury. Before that, he was overshadowed by his older brother Oliver Van Zant ’13, one of Bowdoin’s best pitchers in recent memory. Be assured that Van Zant will come out for this start firing gas.

Besides Superko, the other starters for Tufts are up in the air which could end up leaving a golden opportunity for Bowdoin. Harry Ridge ’16 and Erik Jacobsen ’15 both have a lot of experience and will battle the Tufts lineup. We might see Kyle Slinger ’15 in the Monday game because of the extra couple days of recovery.

The Jumbo offense has picked up pretty much where it was last year. The defining characteristic for them is how often they walk. So far, Tufts has walked 66 times while striking out only 73 times. As a team Tufts has an OBP of .449. Matt Moser ’16 is a star at shortstop with a slashline of .358/.426/.396. The one thing that Tufts does not do much is hit for power as Tommy O’Hara ’18 has their only homer all year.

After a breakout season in 2014, Chad Martin ’16 is showing his power again and has an impressive .585 slugging percentage. Peter Cimini ’16 has been slowed by a leg injury which has put the outfield positions in flux so far for Bowdoin. The best news for Bowdoin so far in the hitting department is that shortstop Sean Mullaney ’17 has an OBP of .462 after hitting below the Mendoza line last year. If he can keep that up, he combines with Aaron Rosen ’15 for one of the best middle infields in the league.

The Polar Bears are lucky to catch Tufts at this point in the season, and much of the following prediction is based off of those injuries to Tufts.

Prediction: Bowdoin wins two of three

Bevy of Seniors Look to Bounce Back: Bowdoin Baseball Season Preview

Peter Cimini (#25) will be a big part of the Bowdoin lineup this season. (Courtesy of CIPhotography.com)

2014 Record: 18-16-1 (5-7, Fourth in the NESCAC East)

Postseason Outcome: Missed NESCAC Playoffs

Returning Starters: 9 (6 Position Players, 3 Starting Pitchers)

Projected Starting Lineup (Stats are from 2014)

2B Aaron Rosen ’15 (.331/.396/.496, 0 HR, 19 RBI)
LF Cole DiRoberto ’15 (.301/.358/.376, 1 HR, 10 RBI)
CF Peter Cimini ’16 (.279/.367/.404, 1 HR, 20 RBI)
DH Chad Martin ’16 (.333/.362/.496, 4 HR, 30 RBI)
3B Sam Canales ’15 (.304/.368/.363, 0 HR, 13 RBI)
1B Erik Jacobsn ’15 (.277/.358/.349, 1 HR, 11 RBI)
C Chris Nadeau ’16 (.196/.327/.217, 0 HR, 3 RBI)
SS Sean Mullaney ’17 (.180/.349/.180, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
RF Joe Gentile ’18

RHP Henry Van Zant ’15 (1-2, 1.95 ERA)
RHP Erik Jacobson ’15 (3-3, 4.09 ERA)
LHP Harry Ridge ’16 (4-2, 2.87 ERA)

Offensive Overview:

The offensive core returns for Bowdoin as six of the top seven OBP performers from last season are back. The bad news is that this group sputtered in conference play finishing with the second fewest runs scored. The top of the lineup should be very good with Aaron Rosen ’15, First Team All-NESCAC in 2014, getting things started. Peter Cimini ’16 and Chad Martin ’16 will look to build off of their breakout sophomore campaigns. Those two were two of the biggest positives from last season. They will need to provide most of the power for this lineup. Sam Canales ’15, Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Cole DiRoberto ’15 are line drive hitters who will be very solid cogs for Bowdoin. The bottom of the lineup is a big question mark. Both Chris Nadeau ’16 and Sean Mullaney ’17 played occasionally last season and hit below the Mendoza line. Joe Gentile ’18 is the frontrunner to grab the final outfield spot and has above average speed, but freshmen regularly struggle to adjust to collegiate pitching. The bottom of the lineup needs to be serviceable while the guys who have proven themselves must be special.

Defensive Overview:

First of all, we lack the advanced stats or the extensive scouting that allow us to break down defense like they do at the professional level. From what we know, the Bowdoin defense was neither a strength or weakness overall, but they made some critical errors in conference that cost them. Cimini will have to replace speedy centerfielder Kyle LeBlanc ’14, and he is flanked by DiRoberto and Gentile, two players who are question marks defensively. The infield should be a strength with the duo of Rosen and Mullaney a potent double-play combination. Nadeau only threw out three of the 18 base runners who attempted to steal against him. That percentage must, and should, go up by a lot. The defense is unlikely to be a game-changer for Bowdoin, but they should be more sure handed and commit fewer errors than last season.

Pitching Overview:

The strength of Bowdoin is a pitching staff that was very good despite injuries to their presumed top two starters. Now the staff that had the second best overall ERA behind Tufts returns their top four starters and closer. Ace Henry Van Zant ’15 was only able to pitch near the end of the season, but he looked great tossing a casual 1.95 ERA in 27.2 innings. Harry Ridge ’16 and Erik Jacobson ’15 both return after posting solid though not remarkable numbers. Jon Fraser ’15 emerged as a legitimate weapon out of the bullpen with an eye-popping 0.76 ERA to go with a 11.03 K/9 rate. Michael Staes ’16 also pitched very well and looks to be the first guy up if someone in front of him stumbles or gets hurt. Finally, keep an eye on freshman Logan Simon ’18, a freshman from recent baseball powerhouse Harvard-Westlake in California. He will get innings early on in Florida to get a good look at what he can do.

Storylines to Watch

1. How much do they steal?

Though Bowdoin doesn’t lose a lot of production from last year on offense, a good deal of their 40 steals from a year ago are no longer on the roster. Rosen is the only significant threat to steal a base, and even he only stole eight times in 2014. Cimini has good speed, but Manager Mike Connelly might be loathe to let him loose if Martin bats behind him. If the back end of the lineup gets on base more, Connelly might set them loose in order to create havoc on the base paths. On the other hand, the Polar Bears might choose to simply eschew stealing for the most part and instead concentrate on smart, safe base running.

2. Does SP Harry Ridge ’16 wear down again?

In each of the past two seasons, Ridge has started the season off by pitching a few games beautifully before seeing his numbers dip significantly in the second half. This might make sense if Ridge was a power pitcher unused to throwing so many innings, but he is actually a control pitcher who strikes few guys out even when he is pitching well. Why he has struggled so much in the second half is somewhat of a mystery, but the third time might be the charm. One of the problems for Ridge was the defense behind him committing a lot of errors with him on the mound. Some of that is because pretty much everybody puts balls in play against him, but he should have better luck this season.

3. Can the entire lineup hit?

This is probably the biggest question for the Polar Bears. The bottom three hitters in their lineup do not project to hit very well. That impact is huge as pitchers are able to relax and pound the zone for a couple of hitters. The best hitters for Bowdoin will not see as good pitches because opponents will depend on getting Bowdoin hitters out with runners on base. Big innings become very hard also. The best NESCAC teams have threats at every spot in the lineup. The Polar Bears don’t need Mullaney, Nadeau and company to hit like rock stars down there, but they need to at least put the ball in play and make the defense get them out. Bowdoin was near the league lead in strikeouts last season.

Biggest Series: At Bates April 3 and 4.

The good news for Bowdoin is that the second spot in the East behind Tufts looks wide-open, and they probably have the most returning talent of any of the remaining four teams. Bowdoin opens the NESCAC season against Tufts, but their series the next weekend against Bates will tell us whether this team is capable of returning to the playoffs. Taking two out of three will go a long way towards getting Bowdoin to the top of the heap. Last season Bates took two of three from Bowdoin in what turned out to be a huge series for the Bobcats. Also, we would be surprised if these games happen at Bates on schedule given all the snow still on the ground.

The Case for the ‘Cac: Students-and-Athletes

A few weeks ago, the NESCAC released its list of 2014 Spring All-Academic selections. Not surprising a whole bunch of people made it (999 to be exact), and not just the guys who sit on the end of the bench. While in Division 1 having a star that is also a stellar student is unusual, in the NESCAC it is almost the norm. Of course, this is exactly how it should be, given the ethos and goals of all the NESCAC schools in placing more emphasis on academics than athletics. To show just how outstanding the caliber of talent is that made the All-Academic team, we compiled two “All-Star” teams, if you will, one with the academic qualifications to make the All-Academic squad and the other chosen from everyone else remaining. Freshmen are not eligible because they have not completed a whole academic year so players like Tim Superko ’17 are not included in this exercise.

All-Academic Lineup	The Rest Lineup
1. Andrew Yin (Second Base)	1. Donnie Cimino (Center Field)
2. Taiki Kasuga (Shortstop)	2. Aaron Rosen (Second Base)
3. Alex Hero (Center Field)	3. Mike Odenwaelder (Right Field)
4. Chad Martin (Designated Hitter)	4. Jason Buco (Left Field)
5. Kevin Galvin (Third Base)	5. Griff Tewksbury (Designated Hitter)
6. Bryan Wolfe (First Base)	6. Sam Goodwin-Boyd (First Base)
7. Nick Cutsumpas (Catcher)	7. Guy Davidson (Shortstop)
8. Matt Moser (Right Field)	8. Kevin Davis (Third Base)
9. Luke Pierce (Left Field)	9. Mekae Hyde (Catcher)

All-Academic Rotation	The Rest Rotation
John Cook	Kyle Slinger
Brad Reynolds	Nick Cooney
Dylan Driscoll	Christian Sbily
Scott Goldberg	Gavin Pittore

Both teams are obviously stacked, but have different strengths. The All-Academic team lacks the mashers in the middle of the lineup that The Rest has in Jason Buco ’15 and Mike Odenwaelder ’16. The pitching staff for the All-Academic team is stronger, however. The difference is minimal especially given the presence of Kyle Slinger ’15 on The Rest. Though I don’t go in depth with the pitchers, it should be noted that other very good pitchers like Tom Ryan ’15 made the All-Academic team as well. Another roster note is that Matt Moser ’16 plays shortstop and not right field, but there was a significant logjam in the middle infield and nobody in the outfield for the All-Academic team so I made the executive decision to keep him on the field in that way.

If these two teams were to meet I would have to give a slight edge to The Rest team, but my guess is that if the teams played ten times, the All-Academic team wins four games. Their pitching is good enough and the talent level throughout the lineup is only a smidgeon worse than the Rest. The purpose of this exercise is of course simply to show the amount of talent that made the All-Academic team and not to really compare the teams.

One last note is that many of the athletes who did not make the All-Academic team still work incredibly hard in the classroom. Keep in mind that the difficulty of achieving the requisite 3.35 GPA fluctuates between departments, majors and professors. This isn’t to disparage anyone who did make the All-Academic team because a 3.35 isn’t easy no matter what classes you take. I want to make clear that I’m not putting down The Rest roster for their performance in the classroom. A lot of factors besides a student’s intelligence and work ethic go into what a final GPA looks like. With that being said, a huge congratulations to all of the students for their great work both on the diamond and in the classroom this spring..

Bowdoin Season Preview

Bowdoin (23-15, 8-4 in 2013)

What they lost:

Nobody can deny that Bowdoin lost a lot from last year. The 2013 class was one of the most decorated in school history, headlined, of course, by Oliver Van Zant. The contributions Dan Findley, Luke Regan and Tim McGarry made in the lineup were critical for the Bowdoin offense. Replacing those three might end up being harder than replacing Van Zant, because the pitching staff remains very deep for Bowdoin.

2014 MVP: OF John Lefeber ’14

After lighting the league on fire as a freshman, Lefeber went through somewhat of a sophomore slump in 2012, but saw his numbers rebound in 2013. The senior will now have to step up and become the team’s best hitter and leader in the outfielder. Lefeber is a gap to gap hitter who led off games down the stretch last season, but might see time in the middle of the lineup because of the graduation of Findley, Regan and McGarry. The Bowdoin offense was only mediocre last year and they lost a lot in those three. Lefeber could also see an increase in innings on the mound. A huge season from Lefeber is a must for this team to repeat 2013’s success.

2014 Pitcher of the Year: Christian Martin ’14

Martin has been overshadowed his entire career by the dominance of Oliver Van Zant ’13. Now that Van Zant is gone, the expectation is for the left-handed Martin to step right in and be the ace. An argument could even be made that Martin was just as good as Van Zant last year. The southpaw boasted a better K/9 rate, started one more game, and actually allowed seven fewer runs than Van Zant (though Martin had five more earned runs allowed than his senior). He is the prototypical long lefty in the mold of a Randy Johnson or a Chris Sale. Martin has made an All-NESCAC team in three seasons already, but hasn’t been on the first team since his freshman year.

Season Outlook:

The formula remains the same for Bowdoin as they will rely on their pitching and defense paired with timely hitting. The top three starters, Martin, Henry Van Zant ’15 and Harry Ridge ’16, already have a lot of experience. The younger Van Zant brother has the stuff of a power righty, but has to do a better job mixing up his pitches and location. Meanwhile, Ridge, another left-hander, had an up and down season last year, having some great starts, but also giving up too many homers. The other pitchers who will see more time are Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Lefeber. The key for Bowdoin is if younger players can make the lineup dangerous from top to bottom. Guys like Cole DiRoberto ’15, Peter Cimini ’16, and Buddy Shea ’15 will have to provide consistency to keep Bowdoin balanced. The returning starters can be expected to put up numbers, but none of them are likely to be dominant forces capable of carrying the offense by themselves. If players who haven’t seen much playing time so far manage to make an impact then Bowdoin will be right back in the thick of the NESCAC race despite all the talent they lost from last year.