Game Info: Saturday, Oct. 3, 1:30 PM at Garcelon Field in Lewiston, Maine
As two 4-4 teams last season, both Bates and Tufts head into this season fighting for the last spot among the league’s upper half. While the top four teams seem to be heads above the rest, Bates and Tufts – along with Williams, who looked strong last week against Bowdoin – offer the best chance out of the rest of the NESCAC to close the ever-widening gap between the 4th and 5th place teams.
The focus for the Bobcats this season has to be on improving their passing game from last season, in which they ranked 10th in yards per game (124.0) and total yards (992). With the graduation of QB Matt Cannone ’15, who threw nine interceptions on the year, Patrick Dugan ’16 takes the reins under center. Seeing as the passing attack of the Bobcats is still trying to figure out their identity, much of the offensive production is still in the hands of slotback Shaun Carroll ’16, who ran for 107 yards in last week’s game versus Amherst.
The Tufts locker room could not be feeling better about where they are, coming off a season that ended their long losing streak, and already starting 2015 with a win under their belt (24-21 in OT vs Hamilton). RB Chance Brady ’17 rushed out of the gates this season, providing his team with 117 yards and two touchdowns on the day, which was by far his best game since becoming a Jumbo. Alex Snyder ’17 did just enough in last week’s win, not turning the ball over once, and throwing for a modest but respectable 188 yards (8.2 yards per completion).
Last Meeting:
The Jumbos, down 13-17 at halftime, went on to score 29 points in the second half, making what seemed like a close game a 42-24 trouncing. While Tufts QB Jack Doll ’15 torched the Bates secondary, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns, the real story of the Jumbos’ offensive outburst lay in the special teams play of Zack Trause ’15. In what seemed to be a close 24-23 game late in the third quarter, Trause broke it open with an 82-yard kickoff return, and then a 49-yard punt return, both for touchdowns, making it a 35-24 Tufts lead with 14:02 left in the game. While the Bobcats had plenty of time to carve into this 11-point lead, Doll put an exclamation point on the game with a three-yard touchdown pass to Jack Cooleen ’16.
Not to take away any credit from the Tufts’ return game, which proved to us that special teams is in fact 1/3 of football, the 42-24 score did not completely tell the whole story. Bates did have a lead with little time left in the third quarter, and had sufficient time to build on that lead had their special teams defense held strong. Seeing as both teams ended the year 4-4, it’s obvious that this game held a lot of weight in determining which team rounded out the upper half of the NESCAC, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to a head-to-head tiebreak again this season.
Tufts X-factor: Wide Receiver Mike Rando ’17
The strong rushing attack of Brady and the Tufts Jumbos is no longer a surprise, so expect the Bobcats defense to limit Brady’s ability to get into the second level of defense by loading the box on Saturday. What Bates will really want to test is the passing attack of Alex Snyder. Who does Tufts have for Snyder to throw to? Junior receiver Mike Rando seems to be a hot pick for a game-changer in this game. While six receptions for 53 yards isn’t the most efficient performance, we know that Snyder will be looking to throw to a receiver he’s comfortable with. In addition, Rando could prove to be a threat in the return game, because, as the Bobcats know all too well, Tufts returners can provide a spark late in the game.
Bates X-factor: Quarterback Patrick Dugan ’16
It’s not often that a quarterback is chosen to be an x-factor, but in this case I think the play of Dugan will dictate how this game ends up for the Bobcats. In his first collegiate start this past week against Amherst, Dugan proved that he could stay composed and not turn the ball over, even against the formidable secondary of the Lord Jeffs, who led the league in INTs last season (17). While 117 yards isn’t a lot, Dugan completed 11 of his 16 passing attempts, averaging 7.3 yards per completion. After holding his own against the best defense in the league, I expect Dugan’s confidence will be on display this Saturday starting for the hometown crowd for the first time.
Prediction: Bates 24 – Tufts 17
If there’s one thing that Bates players have not forgotten from last season, it’s their loss to Tufts last year. The last thing the Bobcats want to see is Tufts marching into Lewiston and walking out sitting pretty at 2-0. For those of you who think human emotion doesn’t actually make a team play better, and that revenge is not a thing; 1.) you must have never heard of the Patriots and 2.) Statistics play into the Bobcats’ favor this weekend. Take a look:
Last year Tufts was ranked last in the league in passing yards allowed with 225.1 per game. Facing a quarterback who just saw the best secondary in the NESCAC, it’s possible that Dugan will throw a few more passes than usual and it could be a big day for Riley at wideout. Another key stat to look at from last year is that Bates was ranked third in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (102.6). With Chance Brady being Tufts’ best offensive weapon, Alex Snyder and his young receiving core will be expected to carry a bigger load. That being said, last year was last year, and the teams are not the same. Snyder played well in last week’s game against Hamilton, and Brady will certainly not look at a third-ranked rushing defense as an immovable object. All things considered, I believe the stars are in line for a Bobcats win this weekend.