Mike Stearns – Nothing But NESCAC

Week 2 Game of the Week: Tufts at Bates

Mark Riley a' against Mike Stearns is a good one to watch. Courtesy of Tufts University — Mark Riley ’16 against Mike Stearns ’17 is a good one to watch. Courtesy of Tufts University

Game Info: Saturday, Oct. 3, 1:30 PM at Garcelon Field in Lewiston, Maine

As two 4-4 teams last season, both Bates and Tufts head into this season fighting for the last spot among the league’s upper half. While the top four teams seem to be heads above the rest, Bates and Tufts – along with Williams, who looked strong last week against Bowdoin – offer the best chance out of the rest of the NESCAC to close the ever-widening gap between the 4th and 5th place teams.

The focus for the Bobcats this season has to be on improving their passing game from last season, in which they ranked 10th in yards per game (124.0) and total yards (992). With the graduation of QB Matt Cannone ’15, who threw nine interceptions on the year, Patrick Dugan ’16 takes the reins under center. Seeing as the passing attack of the Bobcats is still trying to figure out their identity, much of the offensive production is still in the hands of slotback Shaun Carroll ’16, who ran for 107 yards in last week’s game versus Amherst.

The Tufts locker room could not be feeling better about where they are, coming off a season that ended their long losing streak, and already starting 2015 with a win under their belt (24-21 in OT vs Hamilton). RB Chance Brady ’17 rushed out of the gates this season, providing his team with 117 yards and two touchdowns on the day, which was by far his best game since becoming a Jumbo. Alex Snyder ’17 did just enough in last week’s win, not turning the ball over once, and throwing for a modest but respectable 188 yards (8.2 yards per completion).

Last Meeting:

The Jumbos, down 13-17 at halftime, went on to score 29 points in the second half, making what seemed like a close game a 42-24 trouncing. While Tufts QB Jack Doll ’15 torched the Bates secondary, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns, the real story of the Jumbos’ offensive outburst lay in the special teams play of Zack Trause ’15. In what seemed to be a close 24-23 game late in the third quarter, Trause broke it open with an 82-yard kickoff return, and then a 49-yard punt return, both for touchdowns, making it a 35-24 Tufts lead with 14:02 left in the game. While the Bobcats had plenty of time to carve into this 11-point lead, Doll put an exclamation point on the game with a three-yard touchdown pass to Jack Cooleen ’16.

Not to take away any credit from the Tufts’ return game, which proved to us that special teams is in fact 1/3 of football, the 42-24 score did not completely tell the whole story. Bates did have a lead with little time left in the third quarter, and had sufficient time to build on that lead had their special teams defense held strong. Seeing as both teams ended the year 4-4, it’s obvious that this game held a lot of weight in determining which team rounded out the upper half of the NESCAC, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to a head-to-head tiebreak again this season.

Tufts X-factor: Wide Receiver Mike Rando ’17

The strong rushing attack of Brady and the Tufts Jumbos is no longer a surprise, so expect the Bobcats defense to limit Brady’s ability to get into the second level of defense by loading the box on Saturday. What Bates will really want to test is the passing attack of Alex Snyder. Who does Tufts have for Snyder to throw to? Junior receiver Mike Rando seems to be a hot pick for a game-changer in this game. While six receptions for 53 yards isn’t the most efficient performance, we know that Snyder will be looking to throw to a receiver he’s comfortable with. In addition, Rando could prove to be a threat in the return game, because, as the Bobcats know all too well, Tufts returners can provide a spark late in the game.

Bates X-factor: Quarterback Patrick Dugan ’16

It’s not often that a quarterback is chosen to be an x-factor, but in this case I think the play of Dugan will dictate how this game ends up for the Bobcats. In his first collegiate start this past week against Amherst, Dugan proved that he could stay composed and not turn the ball over, even against the formidable secondary of the Lord Jeffs, who led the league in INTs last season (17). While 117 yards isn’t a lot, Dugan completed 11 of his 16 passing attempts, averaging 7.3 yards per completion. After holding his own against the best defense in the league, I expect Dugan’s confidence will be on display this Saturday starting for the hometown crowd for the first time.

Prediction: Bates 24 – Tufts 17

If there’s one thing that Bates players have not forgotten from last season, it’s their loss to Tufts last year. The last thing the Bobcats want to see is Tufts marching into Lewiston and walking out sitting pretty at 2-0. For those of you who think human emotion doesn’t actually make a team play better, and that revenge is not a thing; 1.) you must have never heard of the Patriots and 2.) Statistics play into the Bobcats’ favor this weekend. Take a look:

Last year Tufts was ranked last in the league in passing yards allowed with 225.1 per game. Facing a quarterback who just saw the best secondary in the NESCAC, it’s possible that Dugan will throw a few more passes than usual and it could be a big day for Riley at wideout. Another key stat to look at from last year is that Bates was ranked third in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (102.6). With Chance Brady being Tufts’ best offensive weapon, Alex Snyder and his young receiving core will be expected to carry a bigger load. That being said, last year was last year, and the teams are not the same. Snyder played well in last week’s game against Hamilton, and Brady will certainly not look at a third-ranked rushing defense as an immovable object. All things considered, I believe the stars are in line for a Bobcats win this weekend.

The Jumbos Are Not What They Were: Tufts Season Preview

Zack Trause '15 (#14)is gone, but plenty remains for Tufts. (Courtesy of Kelvin Ma and Tufts University) — Zack Trause ’15 (#14)is gone, but plenty remains for Tufts. (Courtesy of Kelvin Ma and Tufts University)

Editors’ Note: While 99 percent of the work done in these previews is credited directly to the author, the projected records are a decision made together by the editors, Adam and Joe. So if you don’t like it, blame us.

Projected Record: 4–4

Projected Offensive Starters (Eight Returning*)

QB: Alex Snyder ’17
RB: Chance Brady ’17*
WR: Jack Cooleen ’16*
WR: Mike Rando ’17*
WR: Ben Berey ’17*
TE: Nik Dean ’17*
LT: Akene Farmer-Michos ’16*
LG: Tom Gregory ’17
C: TJ Muzzonigro ’17*
RG: Alex Kim ’17
RT: Justin Roberts ’16*

Projected Defensive Starters (Seven Returning*)

DE: Evan Anthony ’17
DT: Ife Adebayo ’16*
DT: Corey Burns ’16*
DE: Tucker Mathers ’17
OLB: Zach Thomas ’18
MLB: Matt McCormack ’16*
OLB: Patrick Williams ’17*
CB: Sebastian Rivera ’17*
SS: Mike Stearns ’17*
FS: Brett Phillips ’18
CB: Junior Arroyo ’16

Offensive MVP: WR/RB Mike Rando ’17

His stats from 2014 don’t scream MVP in part because he was really only healthy for four games last season, so health is one reason for an uptick in production from the junior. The other is that somebody has to replace all of that production now that Zack Trause ’15 is gone. Trause was valuable not as much running the ball but rather his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Chance Brady ’17 is a very talented running back, and he will get most of the rushing opportunities. That being said, he caught only seven passes in 2014, and the Tufts offense calls for a lot of passes to the running back. It seems likely that you will see Rando a good deal not only in the slot, where he will start most games and be a dangerous player, but also lining up next to the quarterback. The point is he will get plenty of touches (including the return game), and he should capitalize on some of them.

Defensive MVP: Linebacker Matt McCormack ’16

We already told you about Mike Stearns ’17, but have ignored the accomplishments of middle linebacker Matt McCormack ’16. As we have noted in the past, the defensive statistics of teams that play fast paced football can be misleading because of the high total number of plays. That doesn’t mean McCormack isn’t an impressive player. He had 88 total tackles in 2014, the most of anyone in the NESCAC. His best game was against Trinity when he tallied 17 tackles (14 of which were solo). He is made to stop the run at the point of the attack, but for him to gain more recognition (he did not make either All-NESCAC team last year), his ability to defend the pass must show improvement.

Biggest Surprise in Camp: QB Jonathan DiBiaso ’18

We have covered the transfer of QBs at Middlebury and Hamilton much more so than Tufts, and that is an oversight on our part primarily because our expectation was that Alex Snyder ’17 would fall comfortably into the starting spot. However, in talking to Coach Jay Civetti, DiBiaso, a transfer from Dartmouth, is making the decision on who will start very difficult. He is a very good pure passer, and has a lot of experience from high school running the spread offense. DiBiaso was a high school star at Everett High School just down the road from Tufts in Massachusetts. At Everett DiBiaso was one of the most decorated QBs in New England, and having him end up at a NESCAC school is a steal. Having also taken a post-graduate year, he is very experienced for someone who has not played at all at college.

Biggest Game: at Hamilton, September 26. 1:00 PM

Sure, Tufts went 4-4 last year, but they still haven’t gotten the monkey off their back that is winning away from Medford. Going to Hamilton and winning there might not seem like a tall task given the Continentals 16 game losing streak, but nobody knows better than Tufts how dangerous a team is when they are hungry for that first win. In many ways Hamilton dominated the game last year nearly totaling the number of first downs Tufts had, and having 199 more total yards than the Jumbos. Yet the Jumbos found a way to win last year—a knack for winning that they displayed in several other games as the year went along. Beating Hamilton to start the season will prove they have that drive in more places than just Medford.

Best Tweet:

Tufts football commit, @Ryan_McDonald13, makes sick diving catch off of water skis #SCtop10 @SportsCenter pic.twitter.com/wxeToQltQS

— Jon Sosidka (@jonsosidka) July 21, 2015

Summary: That 4-4 record from last year probably oversells how good of a team Tufts was a year ago. Their offense was above average with the fourth most yards per game in the league, but their defense was still subpar. Overall the Jumbos had a point differential of -5.4. They weren’t competitive in three of their losses, and the loss of Jack Doll ’15 is a significant one to the offense. The schedule isn’t as forgiving since missing Wesleyan this season is not the godsend it was a year ago. They start the season with two road games and have to play heavyweights Amherst, Trinity, and Middlebury all at home. Being it more likely than not that they struggle against these three teams, the Jumbos will have to win three road games to reach .500. In many instances, you might predict a regression for Tufts, but we don’t see that happening.

The biggest reason is simply that the talent on the Tufts roster is better this year than it was a year ago. Most of the starters are back, and the loss of stars like Trause, Doll, and defensive end James Brao is certainly manageable. The Jumbos have more depth than they have had in the past, especially along the offensive line, which has been an Achilles heel for them over the years. Guys like Akene Farmer-Michos ’16 and Justin Roberts ’16 could see All-NESCAC recognition. That is a significant development seeing as Tufts has had one All-NESCAC offensive lineman since 2009. Whoever ends up emerging in the quarterback battle will have a bunch of toys to play with. Besides Rando, Jack Cooleen ’16 and Ben Berey ’16 are both quality wide receivers. Cooleen is 6’5″ and will see most of the deep balls throw by the Tufts’ QB. Berey meanwhile saw his production collapse down the stretch after having 35 catches through five games. Chance Brady ’17 ended the season getting most of the carries, and he will continue to serve that role. Brady is the most physical back that Tufts has had in recent years, and he will help keep linebackers in the box, which will help to open up Tufts’ quick passing game. Honestly, I’ve never seen a team run as many bubble screens as Tufts did last year—if teams can cheat outside on those, they never work.

The defense took the leap to respectability last year, and they could be a league average unit this year. The defensive line was able to cause more pressure than in years past, but much of it came from the departed Brao. Ife Adebayo ’16 and Corey Burns ’16 are both good defensive tackles, but they don’t get into the backfield that regularly. The Jumbos usually play things pretty straight up on defense, not blitzing that often, but they might have to change things up to help out the secondary. That group is led by Stearns, who switches over from corner to safety where he will be asked to help defend the run even more than before. This secondary still allowed the most yards of any team in the NESCAC last year, and in the final game, Matt Milano ’16 made it look like he was throwing against air. The speed is a little better all-around in the back, but this is the team’s greatest weakness entering the season. The linebackers will miss Tommy Meade ’15, but McCormack and Patrick Williams ’17 will ensure that there will be no real drop off.

It was great to watch Tufts storm out of the basement of the NESCAC, and all the players and coaches deserved every second of last season. 2015 brings a lot of new challenges, however. All reports are that the freshman class is a very talented one, and that they could push for playing time in spots soon. The Jumbos cannot afford to get ahead of themselves and take any team for granted, seeing as that 32 losing streak still looms heavily in the background.

Previewing the Player of the Year Races

If you have a better picture from the paper, by all means use that Joe — Matt Milano ’16 looks to defend his POY title (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Yesterday we tackled all the players who have a chance to rise from relative obscurity into stardom. Now it’s time to talk about the ones who already are big names and might take home the shiniest hardward at the end of the season.

Offensive Player of the Year Race

The question is whether a non-QB will be able to win this award. Eight of the last nine Offensive Player of the Year Awards have gone to a QB with Amherst’s Evan Bunker the only running back to win in 2011. In the six years from 2000-2005, non-QBs won the award in four of the six years. As you will see below, among our five favorites, only one is a QB, Matt Milano ’16. Of course, Milano is the odds-on favorite to win the award provided he stays healthy, but if for some unforeseen reason he does not put up amazing statistics, there does not appear to be another QB ready to win the award. While it is possible someone like Austin Lommen ’16 (Williams) makes a big jump, it is probably Milano or bust in terms of QBs, so that is something to keep in mind.

Running Backs LaDarius Drew ’15/Lou Stevens ’17 (Wesleyan): Stevens enjoyed a strong end to the 2014 season to earn First Team All-NESCAC honors in 2014, and Drew was First Team All-NESCAC in 2013 before missing all of last year because of a foot injury so both of these guys are very talented. In the end, these two might be each other’s worst enemies. There are only so many carries to go around. However, in 2013 with Drew and Kyle Gibson ’15 splitting carries, Drew still finished second in the NESCAC in YPG. If these two were one player, LouDarius Drevens would be the favorite to win the award.

Running Back Tyler Grant ’17 (Bowdoin): The league’s leading rusher from 2014, and the only player who averaged more than 100 YPG, Grant racked up an incredible amount of carries over eight games. He finished the year with 226 rushing attempts, 76 more than the next highest total by Trinity’s Chudi Iregbulem ’15! Grant surely will not run that much this year, but he could benefit from a more open scheme that will put him in space more often where he is best. Health is a definite concern after all of the carries a year ago. He was banged up for much of the offseason and is out of practice now, though he is expected to be fully healthy by the time Week 1 rolls around.

Quarterback Matt Milano ’16 (Middlebury): Milano is the reigning co-Offensive Player of the Year (he split the award with Wesleyan QB Jesse Warren ’15 a year ago) so he is an obvious choice for this list. We are pretty sure that he will be starting Week 1 over transfer Jared Lebowitz ’17 because Milano has more experience with the offense. Make no mistake, Milano was amazing last year. After an uneven first start against Wesleyan, he threw 22 TDs against one INT over the final seven games of the season. He does have to play more consistently against the top defenses in the league, as he had average or subpar games against Wesleyan, Amherst and Williams. Middlebury will rely on him even more than they did last year with the team’s leading rusher from a year ago, Drew Jacobs ’18, out with a Lisfranc fracture.

Running Back Nick Kelly ’17 (Amherst): Kelly entered 2014 splitting carries with Kenny Adinkra ’16, but with Adinkra injured for the final five games of the season, Kelly became the feature back. A tall back, Kelly is somewhat in the mold of a Derrick Henry from Alabama who possesses breakaway speed once he gets moving downhill. His 59-yard touchdown against Middlebury last year was the difference in that game, and he had a run of at least 20 yards in each of the first five games of the season. Kelly did struggle mightily down the stretch averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry in his final three games. He will also have to fight off a lot of talented backups including a healthy Adinkra.

Wide Receiver Mark Riley ’16 (Bates): Having a wide receiver from Bates, a school known for their triple option running attack on offense, as a preseason favorite for this award is unusual. Then you have to realize that Riley has the statistics to more than back up his inclusion. He led the league in receiving YPG and was second in catches. He has the speed to run past defenders and also runs good routes underneath. With no other clear passing option, he will have to overcome a lot of double teams. New QB Patrick Dugan ’16 is known as a good passer so I’m not worried about a big drop in targets for Riley. Winning this award as a wide receiver is hard, but Riley has a lot of the ingredients to make it happen.

Others to Watch: Wide Receiver Matt Minno ’16 (Middlebury), Quarterback Austin Lommen ’16 (Williams), Quarterback Sonny Puzzo ’17 (Trinity), Running Back Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 (Colby)

Defensive Player of the Year

The past winners of this award exhibit a lot more variety than the QB-heavy Offensive award, but the most common position to win it is linebacker because of the big tackle totals. This season there are more than a fair share of worthy competitors for DPOY, and we left off a lot of players who will make a run at it.

Cornerback Jaymie Spears ’16 (Amherst): The best corner in the NESCAC, no questions asked. A year ago Spears was second in the league with six interceptions, tied for first with eight pass breakups, and blocked two kicks, just because he can. One worry for Spears’ candidacy? That teams simply ignore his side of the field and target other receivers. You see that in the NFL for corners like Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis. NESCAC teams haven’t done that yet, but if Spears’ numbers drop precipitously it might be because he simply isn’t getting opportunities.

Linebacker Mark Upton ’17 Bates): The presence of multiple senior linebackers on Bates couldn’t keep Upton from racking up 84 tackles a year ago. Now, as the centerpiece of the Bates defense, he could have eye-popping numbers from the middle linebacker spot. He is more than just a steady player in the middle too. He led the league with four forced fumbles and had the most sacks on Bates with 3.5. A severe drop in the overall talent of the Bates defense could spell trouble for Upton, but he has a very good shot if he plays at a similar level to what he did last season.

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury). Patricia is just one of several Middlebury defenders who could make a run at this award. He gets the nod because of his job as the middle linebacker. He is nothing if not consistent with three NESCAC Second Team honors back-to-back-to-back years. Some might worry that Patricia has hit his ceiling as a player already, but he improved his play-making ability by doubling his TFL total from 2013 to 2014. Patricia’s greatest skill is a nose for the ball. He just knows how to make tackles. And even if he doesn’t win the award, one of his teammates, the Pierce bros (they’re not actually brothers), S Dan and LB Addison, just might.

Safety Mike Stearns ’17 (Tufts): Nobody had more solo tackles than Stearns’ 60 in 2014, and the fact that they came from the corner position makes it all the more impressive. Now at safety Stearns should have even more opportunities to make tackles. A great instinctive player, Stearns will be all over the field as a safety. Of worry is a significant tapering off of production as the year went along. He had only 18 tackles in his last four games. At safety, Stearns will have to show that he can make plays in the air and not just on the ground.

Defensive End James Howe ’16 (Williams): Joe and I talked about this in our video on Monday (Williams part begins at 3:40), but there is no bigger enigma than Howe entering this season. After totaling 10 sacks as a sophomore, he had zero all of 2014. He still had 38 tackles, a good amount for a defensive end, but a year ago I was ready to call Howe the JJ Watt of the NESCAC. I put him on this list because he obviously has the talent to make a ton of plays. He might not be quite as much of a focus for opposing offenses this season, which could give him more opportunities to get into the backfield.

Others to Watch: Linebacker Alex Daversa-Russo ’16 (Wesleyan), Safety Dan Pierce ’16 (Middlebury), Linebacker Addison Pierce ’17 (Middlebury), Linebacker Frank Leyva ’16 (Trinity), Linebacker Thomas Kleyn ’16 (Amherst)

20 Stats from 2014 That You Need to Know

MIDDLEBURY, VT (October 17, 2009) - Aerial images of the campus of Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vermont. (Photo © Brett Simison) — An aerial view of the Middlebury field. (Photo © Brett Simison)

The time has come, football season is finally upon us. FBS college teams begin games tonight, meaning we will get football non-stop for months now. While teams throughout the NESCAC have turned the page on the 2014 season, we want to take one last look at last year and tell you what stats will be crucial to know heading into the 2015 campaign.

17. No better place to start than the defending champs. The steel-curtain defense of the Amherst Lord Jeffs accrued a league leading 17 interceptions last season. Going into this year, three out of the four defensive backs will be returning as seniors – Jaymie Spears ’16, who led the league with six picks last year, Chris Gow ’16 and Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16. Look for this trio to continue to wreak havoc for opposing NESCAC quarterbacks this year.

2,004. While the DBs of Amherst held him to only 67 yards when they played each other last October, Middlebury quarterback Matt Milano ’16 was the only QB in the conference to throw for over 2000 yards in the 2014 season, amassing 2,004 yards through the air. The next closest was Wesleyan’s Jesse Warren ’15 with 1513.

1. On the other side of the spectrum, the Bowdoin offense had a lowly one passing touchdown in 2014. That touchdown went to fullback Jack Donovan ’15, meaning the Polar Bear wide receivers had zero receiving touchdowns all season. With the entrance of JB Wells as the new head coach of the Polar Bears, along with the change in personnel at the quarterback position with Tim Drakeley ’17, look for a drastic improvement from last year’s lowest-ranked offense.

74.6. The number of tackles per game for Tufts. While the Jumbos had the most tackles per game in the NESCAC, they also were the last-ranked team in terms of passing yards allowed (225.1 per game).

34. The Middlebury Panthers, who were among the league’s best offensively, hired a new offensive coordinator in Dave Caputi for 2015. After graduating from Middlebury himself in 1981, 34 years later he finds himself back as a member of Panther football.

33:38. Wesleyan’s lengthy time of possession per game last year, made possible by their second-ranked 18 first downs per game. They will again look to hold the rock for long periods with their talented running back duo of LaDarius Drew ’15 and Lou Stevens ’17.

16. The number of consecutive losses for Hamilton. Although it’s not quite as impressive as Tufts’ 31 straight which ended last year, second year head coach Dave Murray will rest much easier if that 16 doesn’t turn into 24 after this season.

61. Touches for Trinity RB/QB Spencer Aukamp ’18 last season. Expect that number to rise, but it’s unclear whether that will be via the run or passing game. Aukamp is a weapon and will see a lot of snaps for the Bantams, but they most likely won’t take place under center this season.

71.5. Receiving yards per game for Bates’ Mark Riley ’16, who led the league in this category as well as total receiving yards with 572. The Bobcats are also in the midst of a change at the quarterback position, so it’ll be interesting to see how the loss of Matt Cannone ’15 affects Riley’s 2015 numbers.

2. Straight years Williams has been below .500, an occurrence that had not happened for 15+ years.

533. Total yards for Colby RB Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17, who broke out his sophomore year as the Mules’ premiere back. Keeping an eye on Colby, it will be interesting to see how the ground load will be split for Hurdle-Price and fellow classmate Carl Lipani who, although he had fewer carries (37 compared to 131), averaged more yards per touch (4.9) than Hurdle-Price (4.1). Lipani is healthy again after missing the second half of the season.

23. Fourth down attempts were not rare for Middlebury, and they led the league converting 12 of their 23 tries. The next closest team was Bates with 12 attempts. Keep in mind the change at O-coordinator for the Panthers this season, and consider whether that might have an impact on their fourth down strategy.

226. Bowdoin running back Tyler Grant ’17 had his work cut out for him last year, carrying the ball 226 times, the most of any back in the league. In addition to having his number called early and often, he produced, leading the league in both yards (893) and yards per game (111.6). Don’t expect Bowdoin to lean quite so heavily on him this year.

54. That’s how many points top-ranked Wesleyan kicker Ike Fuchs ’17 had in 2014, who was good for 10 out of 13 field goals on the year. With the amount of time the Cardinal’s offense had possession of the football, coming away with points at the end was a big part of their game last season.

4. Number of sacks for Amherst’s 300-pound defensive tackle Paul Johnson ’17. With the graduation of defenders Chris Tamasi ’15 and Max Lehrman ’15, who had five and 4.5 sacks last year, respectively, the pass rushing load will depend even more on Johnson this season.

60. The number of solo tackles for Tufts’ sophomore defensive back Mike Stearns ’17, which put him at the top of the conference in that category. It is incredibly rare for a defensive back to led the league in tackles, and Stearns might shift from corner to safety this year.

3653. The top-ranked average amount of fans in attendance for Amherst. The real question is do championships help bring the fans, or do the fans help bring the championships? Either way, the Lord Jeffs will go into the 2015 season looking to capture their third consecutive conference championship.

299. Hamilton’s LaShawn Ware ’18, who, despite starting in only one game last season, led the Continentals in rushing yards with 299.

50%. Colby’s red-zone touchdown percentage, which was the worst in the NESCAC. Not only could the Mules not get the ball in the end-zone, but also they failed to kick any field goals from inside the 20 as well.

298. Days since the last NESCAC football game was played, only 24 more to go.

10 Statistics That Might Surprise You

The Crowd storms the field after Tufts' first win of the season (courtesy of Tufts University) — The Crowd storms the field after Tufts’ first win of the season (courtesy of Tufts University)

Editors Note: This article was co-written by Joe MacDonald and Adam Lamont

Between our statistics page and the wealth of information over at the NESCAC site, a football aficionado can spend hours pouring over statistics if he/she were to feel so inclined. However, most of us don’t have that kind of time to do that type of thing. Fortunately for you, we make it our job to do just that. So here are 10 statistics that don’t jump out but nevertheless tell us a lot about how the conference has been shaking out, and frankly are just plain interesting.

1. Wesleyan Defensive 3rd Down Percentage: 23 percent

This is the lowest mark in the NESCAC by a good deal and is an insanely low percentage in general. The lowest NFL percentage is the Indianapolis Colts at 31.1 percent, and Wesleyan is sixth nationwide in Divison-III for defensive third down percentage. Even in Amherst’s victory over the Cardinals, the Jeffs only converted 3-14 third downs. Primarily responsible for this is the Cardinals all-star secondary which is the best in the NESCAC. Windows simply don’t exist downfield on clear passing downs. Another statistic for how good the Wesleyan secondary is: they are allowing 4.6 yards per passing attempt, the only team allowing fewer than five yards.

2. Williams Tackles For Loss Per Game: 4.33

Coming into the season the expectation was that the William defensive line was its strongest unit, capable of keeping the Ephs in games. After all it was a unit that had 19 sacks in 2013 and returned their three top sack performers this year. But the line has not repeated its production from last year. James Howe ’16 has enjoyed steady play but has not had a single sack after his breakout campaign last year. That has not necessarily been because of offenses focusing on him since nobody else has seen an uptick in production this year. A big reason for Williams’ disappointing season is their inability to make big plays on the defensive front.

3. Hamilton First Downs Allowed Per Game: 15.16

Given the Continentals record of 0-6, it would seem likely that the defense allows a lot of first downs per game, but their defense actually ranks second behind Trinity (13.83) in the category. Maybe they just let up a lot of big plays? That has something to do with it but not a lot as Hamilton is still only fifth in opponents’ yard per game. The reason for it is that the Hamilton defense doesn’t see many plays. Opponents only run 63 plays against them a game, the lowest mark in the NESCAC.

4. Number of Consecutive Years that Middlebury Has Had the NESCAC’s Leading Passer: 6

And Matt Milano ’16 appears ready to make it seven years in a row. Mac Foote ’14 led the league for three years in row after Donnie McKillop ’11 started the streak in 2008. Jesse Warren ’15 is only 64 yards behind Milano and Austin Lommen ’16 is also only 92 yards back. Still those two have to face very tough defenses in their remaining games while Milano has to face Hamilton and Tufts, two defenses that he should be able to exploit. The most likely possibility that keeps Milano from winning the passing crown is if the Panthers get up big early in both games and they run the ball the entire second half.

5. NESCAC Rank of Middlebury’s Top Receiver: Ninth

Last year Middlebury boasted three of the top four receivers in terms of yards, but this year has not seen any one player dominate. Grant Luna ’17 was the number one target the first couple of weeks, but injuries have kept him out the last two games. In his absence Matt Minno ’16, the team’s leading wideout last year, has risen to the occasion with Luna out and supplied five touchdowns in two weeks. Brendan Rankowitz ’15 has been a consistent threat having multiple catches in every game. Those three rank ninth through eleventh in receiving yards. Following them, running back Drew Jacobs ’18 is the safety valve tied for the lead in receptions for Middlebury, and Ryan Rizzo ’17 has come on strong in the past two weeks with 14 catches in place of Luna. Oh, by the way, with the exception of Rankowitz, all of these guys are back next year.

6. Solo Tackles for Mike Stearns ’17 (Tufts): 56

The next closest total in the NESCAC is 41 by Dan Pierce ’16 (Middlebury). What makes it so amazing it is that Stearns plays corner. The Tufts coaches trust his instincts and give Stearns free reign to come up quickly on run plays in order to seal off the edge. Stearns’ ability to avoid blockers and make a sure-handed tackle also helps the Jumbos to send extra pressure up the middle because they know they won’t be burned on the edges. Two things to keep in mind however: firstly, Tufts faces the most plays per team and secondly, Stearns’ solo tackles are likely inflated a little by scorekeepers because they are able to clearly distinguish his plays.

7. Carries for Bowdoin’s Tyler Grant ’17: 162

That’s 134 more carries than the next man on the depth chart, Garrett Thomas ’17, and Grant has accounted for 70 percent of the Polar Bears’ carries in 2014. Grant has 53 more carries than Chudi Iregbulem ’15, who is second in the NESCAC. His six touchdowns are tied for second in the league. And Grant has already surpassed last year’s carry total by 65. Time to give credit where credit is due to this Bowdoin workhorse.

8. Colby’s Field Goal Percentage: 25 percent

Granted, kicker Louw Scheepers ’15 has only attempted four field goals, but he’s still only knocked one through. Funny enough, his make, from 46 yards, was longer than any of his misses (42, 40, 31). Scheepers has been solid on his extra points though, making 11-12. Scheepers miss in OT from 42 last week was the only real significant miss he’s had, but still he could be called on over the final two weeks to make a big kick or two. What’s surprising is that Scheepers was 7-11 on field goals last season, so he’s better than he’s put forward so far.

9. All-Purpose Yards for Tufts’ Zack Trause ’15: 871

Trause leads the league in all-purpose yards, and it’s not particularly close. The utility man averages 145.2 yards per game, while Iregbulem clocks in at second with 122.4. Trause is the league’s leading punt returner and is second in kick return yards (but first in average with 36.4 yards per kick return) in addition to his efforts on the offensive side of the ball.

10. Tufts’ Total Attendance: 10,993

We can’t put too much stock into the recorded attendances for NESCAC football games, because there’s no gates and spectators often come and go. But just have faith in the numbers for a moment. That Tufts has put 3,000 more proverbial butts in the seats than any other team in the NESCAC goes to show how the football culture is shifting in Medford. It also helps if you win.

Is an Upset on the Horizon? The Weekend Preview 10/23

Conventional thinking for this season has been that three teams have a legitimate chance at winning the NESCAC title-Amherst, Wesleyan, and Trinity-and that the title would come down to the results of the games between those teams. This week will be the strongest test of that thinking as all three top teams face varying challenges this weekend. Middlebury traveling to Trinity is the highlight, but Tufts visiting Amherst and Bowdoin at Wesleyan could also offer intrigue. The big advantage for the top three teams is that they all play at home, though on the season home teams are only 12-13.

If one of the top three teams loses, then the final two weeks could become much more complicated. It would not necessarily drop Amherst or Trinity from the conversation because both teams are still undefeated, but Wesleyan knows they must win out to have a chance. Elsewhere the CBB gets underway with Colby and Bates, and Hamilton looks to notch their first win at home against Williams.

Three to Watch

Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan): Perhaps lost somewhat in Wesleyan’s loss last Saturday and their inability to run the ball, has been how good Warren has played this season. The knock on him last year was that he didn’t need to throw the ball often and his stats were a product of teams loading the box to stop the run. This year he has proven that wrong in all respects. He is averaging over 45 more yards per game while also being more efficient as his yards per attempt is up 0.9 yards and his completion percentage has edged up from 64.7 percent to 66.9 percent. To top it off he still has only thrown one interception this year while also tossing nine touchdowns. Last week Trinity was forced to turn to Henry Foye ’15 and air the ball out against Bowdoin, and a similar situation could see itself play out again this week. If Warren continues his stellar play, the Cardinals are in good hands.

Linebacker Tom Szymanski ’15 (Trinity): The Bantams defense is a very deep unit that has talent all across the board, but Szymanski has been the leading man so far. His 31 tackles are the most on the team. He has also been a force in the pass rush with two sacks on the season. The senior had his biggest game a few weeks ago against Hamilton totaling 12 tackles. The Bantams are banged up on defense (more on that later), and Szymanski will have to be a steadying force to make Middlebury one-dimensional through the air. Even though the Panthers have not run the ball particularly well (second to last in the NESCAC per carry), they will try to establish something on the ground.

Running Back Nick Kelly ’17 (Amherst): After some early season missteps, the Amherst offense seems to be on track with Kelly as the main horse for the Jeffs. Kenny Adinkra ’16 was the starter entering the season, but injuries have forced him to miss multiple games. Kelly has stepped in and been a force. His first highlight came when he iced Bates with a 42-yard touchdown. After only gaining 28 yards in week two, Kelly has busted out for three straight 100+ yard performances. Kelly is a powerful back who also has breakaway speed once he turns the corner and gets a full head of steam. Amherst will need him to approach the 100 yard mark again this week, but it might not be as easy as you might expect against Tufts. Though they are not usually associated with a strong run defense, the Jumbos stonewalled Williams for 46 yards on 29 carries last Saturday.

The Picks

Game of the Week: Middlebury (3-2) at Trinity (5-0)

Trinity survived on the road last Saturday, and they are more than happy to be back at home protecting their 53-game home winning streak. Meanwhile Middlebury comes in on a two-game winning streak and hoping for a signature win to their season. Sources told us this morning that Chudi Iregbulem ’15 will give it a go tomorrow after not playing last week.

Middlebury has lost both of its games by one touchdown, and their main issue has been offense in those games. Matt Milano ’16 and company have put up 28.3 points per game in their victories but only 7.0 in their two losses. Granted, they played Amherst in a driving rain storm that was a huge boon for the Jeffs in terms of stopping the Panther passing game. The Bantams stack right up there with Wesleyan and Amherst on defense allowing only 7.6 points per game.

The Trinity defense has been even better than their stats as well. Teams have only scored two touchdowns on drives of more than 40 yards through their first five games. The rest of the touchdowns given up by the Bantams were because of short fields after a turnover. They are strongest against the run allowing only 2.5 yards per carry, and the Panthers should expect few lanes open.

Injuries on the defensive side of the ball are a major issue. Safety Mike Mancini ’15, linebacker Mike Weatherby ’14, and cornerback Brian Dones ’15 are all questionable for the game because of injury. Head Coach Jeff Devanney has said he thinks it is possible all of them play, but as Iregbulem’s injury shows, the Bantams do not reveal a lot of information about injuries. Not revealing injuries is of course part of the game and Trinity is under no obligation to tell anybody who will be playing. However, at this point Trinity appears to be healthy, and all those players will try to play tomorrow.

Dones in particular is important because when healthy he can shut down one side of the field. Grant Luna ’17 did not play last week due to a concussion so his status is up in the air, but Matt Minno ’16 and Brendan Rankowitz ’15 are more than capable of making plays for Milano and Luna’s replacement, Ryan Rizzo ’17, is just as athletic as (and faster than) every receiver on the Panthers’ roster. The major difference between this year’s Middlebury offense and those of past years’ is the lack of a pass catching tight end. William Sadik-Khan ’14 and Billy Chapman ’13 were both big targets in the middle of the field that were match-up nightmares for NESCAC teams. No tight end has more than five catches on the year right now for Middlebury.

On the other side of the ball Middlebury will look to make Trinity rely on the passing game. Bowdoin did a good job of this last week, but Henry Foye ’15 proved he could make throws when it mattered. In the second half Foye had a handful of throws down the field that helped make his receivers open. This entire video of Trinity coach Jeff Devanney going over game film is worth watching, and he does a good job of breaking down some of Foye’s throws starting at 9:15.

The Middlebury secondary should be more up to the task of shutting down Ian Dugger ’16 and Chris Ragone ’15. Nate Leedy ’17 is the top corner for the Panthers, and safeties Matt Benedict ’15 and Dan Pierce ’16 make a lot of big plays as well. On the season the Panthers have allowed the second least amount of passing yards though per attempt teams fare reasonably well against them.

If Iregbulem is still slowed then the Panthers have a good shot at pulling the upset. It will be imperative for Milano not to make any costly mistakes. Since throwing for two interceptions against Wesleyan, he has passed for eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Still, though health is an issue for Trinity, the Bantams will have enough to keep the streak alive for at least one more week.

Prediction: Trinity 27 over Middlebury 21

Tufts (3-2) at Amherst (5-0): No team has a bigger disparity between their home and away performance than the Jumbos, and unfortunately for them Amherst hosts this week, but that doesn’t mean Tufts has no chance. Jack Doll ’15 is right up there with Warren for top QB in the NESCAC so far, but throwing on the Jeffs is always difficult. As mentioned before, Tufts loves to get the ball into the flats quickly, something that Amherst is adept at covering. Gene Garay ’15 emerged as Max Lippe’s ’15 security blanket underneath last week. Tufts needs its defensive stars Mike Stearns ’17 and Matt McCormack ’16 to be presences all day long in order to slow down Amherst. The Tufts have a good chance of getting to .500 on the year, but it won’t happen this week.

Prediction: Amherst 31 over Tufts 21

Bowdoin (2-3) at Wesleyan (4-1): (Editor’s Note: Prediction and game blurb by Joe MacDonald) How the Cardinals respond mentally to their let down last week will go a long way in this game. Given all the seniors on the roster, the likelihood is they come out looking for revenge. Besides their Week 1 debacle, the Polar Bears tend to keep games close and have looked better every week. The Wesleyan defense will work hard to force turnovers to help put the offense into good situations. Jay Fabien ’15 has become the number one target for Warren through the air, and Lou Stevens ’17 enjoyed his biggest game of the year on the ground last week. Meanwhile Dan Barone ’16 has cemented himself as Bowdoin’s number one option and is enjoying a top five receiver caliber season. The Polar Bears don’t have enough talent to hang for 60 minutes, and Wesleyan will pull away.

Prediction: Wesleyan 31 over Bowdoin 17

Our favorite NESCAC football photo of all time (courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Colby (1-4) at Bates (1-4): The Mules busted out last week, and if they play anything like they did last week, then Bates could be in trouble. Some regression should be expected however, and in the opener of the CBB this should be a close one. Strong play by the Bates defense has only led to one victory so far because of offensive struggles exacerbated by injuries especially to Matt Cannone ’15. It is still uncertain whether Cannone will play Saturday, and if he does how effective he can be because of his ankle injury. Both teams have endured grueling schedules to start the year, and are more than ready for this game to get underway. Whether Bates can find consistent gains on the ground will be the difference. The Bobcats want to hold the ball for the majority of the game and keep Luke Duncklee ’15 and Nick Joseph ’15 from getting loose deep. Consider this one basically a coin flip between these two teams, but we will give Colby the edge based on last week’s results.

Prediction: Colby 21 over Bates 20

Williams (1-4) at Hamilton (0-5): The wheels fell of the bus somewhere along the way from Clinton to Waterville last week for the Continentals, and the same can be said for Williams too. The Hamilton defense has been a hard luck group this year as they place last in the NESCAC in points allowed per game (32.6) but are fifth in yards allowed per game (334.0). Williams will look to get Alex Scyocurka ’14 the ball at least 25 times on the ground in an attempt to wear down the Continentals. Chase Rosenberg ’17 has to do a better job making the easy throw when open. He has not had a single game with a completion percentage above 60 percent. As long as the Ephs show up motivated and ready to play, they should keep Hamilton in the loss column.

Prediction: Williams 24 over Hamilton 14

Last Week: 4-1

Season Record: 21-4

Tufts Team Preview – The Jumbo Herd is Ready to Rumble

Editors Note: Today we start our team previews. We are releasing them in order of expected finish and will do two every day of this week.

2013 Record: 0-8

Returning Starters: 21 (10 Offense, 10 Defense, 1 specialist)

Offensive Overview:

A unit that at times looked very good returns practically everyone who made an impact last season. Tufts will again be running the spread offense that relies on a lot of West Coast passing concepts of short to intermediate throws. The QB position is a question mark as Jack Doll ’15 and Alex Snyder ’17 are in an open competition. Doll was the starter to begin the 2013 season before he was injured. Snyder struggled with accuracy but had some good moments as well. When Doll returned from injury against Middlebury in the final game of the year he saw the majority of the snaps. The running back tandem of Zach Trause ’15 and Chance Brady ’15 was actually pretty effective averaging a combined 4.6 yards per carry last year.

Whoever wins out at QB will have plenty of returners at his disposal. At receiver, Greg Lanzillo ’15 is the number one guy on the outside with Jack Cooleen ’16 on the other side. In the slot Ben Berey ’17 and Mike Rando ’17 are the starters. An offensive line that was pretty inexperienced entering last season now features two seniors in center Landon Davis ’15 and captain guard Kyle Duke ’15. Tackles Akene Farmer-Mikos ’16 and Justin Roberts ’16 were both starters as well. The final spot is up for grabs in a unit that has to do a better job in pass protection after letting up 26 sacks.

Defensive Overview:

Again, much like the offense, a young unit from last season has to make major strides. The secondary welcomes back safety Mike Defeo ’15 to pair with Pat Glose ’15. Junior Arroyo ’16 mans one corner position while Mike Stearns ’17 enjoyed a great freshman year at the other corner finishing third on the team in tackles. His hard nosed style is what Tufts is looking to do at every position in order to match up with the run heavy offenses in the NESCAC. Linebackers Matt McCormack ’16 and Tommy Mead ’15 are now in their third year starting with each other.

A wealth of returners on the defensive line headlined by James Brao ’15 and Corey Burns ’16 return. The line is undersized with no player over 250 pounds listed on the roster from 2013. They try to make up for that by rotating players in to keep everyone fresh, and the defensive staff also has to get a little inventive in terms of stunts and blitzes. Whether it was through the air or on the ground, Tufts struggled to stop teams last season, but the athletes they return should help.

Three Big Questions

1. Can Tufts score in the red zone? Tufts had the lowest rate (42%) of touchdowns after reaching the red zone last year in the NESCAC. While they were able to move the ball OK, the spread offense got bogged down in the most important part of the field. A common complaint of the spread is that it doesn’t work as well in the red zone. To combat that an offense has to either run the ball very well or have receivers who can win 1-on-1 battles.

2. Can the defense improve?

The Jumbos allowed a shocking 99 more yards per game than any other team. They simply struggled to get off the field as Tufts held the ball for only 25:29 per game. While they played well in certain games (against Bowdoin and Amherst, for example), games were often over by halftime as the Jumbos allowed an average of 24.5 points in the first half of games. Another year of getting stronger and faster should yield better results for what was a very young group. It is hard to pinpoint what needs to improve the most, but garnering more than the seven sacks they had all of 2013 is a good place to start.

3. Is this a make or break year for Jay Civetti?

Head Coach Jay Civetti is now entering his fourth season, and his record at Tufts is 0-24. Judging him by that record is a mistake given how little he inherited when taking over and how young a team Tufts was. Civetti brings great energy and has worked hard to position the team for improvement, but now some results have to follow given all the players returning for this season. Even though Civetti’s job is not in trouble, a breakthrough win or two would prove the progress the Tufts program has been making.

Team MVP: The two linebackers McCormack and Meade get the nod because of their work in the middle of the defense. Though their numbers are inflated somewhat because of how many plays the Jumbo defense is on the field for, these two represent the best hope for improvement on that side of the ball. Unlike the NFL where corner and defensive end are now the most important positions on defense, good NESCAC teams build from the middle out. Having those two to anchor the defense is a huge advantage.

Biggest Game of the Year: Sept. 20 against Hamilton

Consider this for a second; no current player on the Tufts roster has won a football game as a Jumbo. Their best chance for a victory in 2014 comes in the very first game of the year against a Hamilton team that was also winless last season. One worry for Tufts is that they come out too excited and try to do too much. Penalties or a costly turnover at the wrong time are a big reason why Tufts has endured such a long losing streak that looks like it should end this season.

Best Tweet of the Offseason:

Great rock, paper, scissors tournament to finish up tonight’s practice!! #JumboPride #AlwaysCompete pic.twitter.com/iVhZr96xrv

— Tufts Football (@tuftsfootball) August 31, 2014

The Jumbos have the experience and desire to turn their losing streak around this year. Is this the season they break through?