NCAA Opening Rounds Weekend Preview
Hamilton (22-4, 7-3)
Hamilton was a shoe in for an at large bid after finishing the season with the least losses in the NESCAC (4). They were ranked 4th in the final NCAA regional rankings and 13th overall in the D3hoops poll and arguably deserved to host these first two rounds of the tournament. In fact, theoretically if the D3 tournament gave them a seed based on this ranking, they would be hosting the opening rounds at their home court. They have a tough assignment here playing in #12 York’s regional as the host just recently dropped from #8 in the nation. Hamilton is no stranger to tough opponents after making it through their NESCAC schedule, but they still have a tall task at hand if they make it past Nazareth, the Empire 8 conference winners, in the round of 64.
How They Got Here:
The Continentals had a turnaround 2018 where they surged above all expectations and ran the tables in the early parts of the season. They hit a bit of a rough patch when they lost 2/3 games to Amherst and Bowdoin, although they rallied back to make it to the NESCAC semifinals, losing to Williams for the second time this season. They have a lineup loaded with offense, although they sometimes struggle to make their own shots, resulting in a streakiness that makes them dangerous yet susceptible to an upset. They have had games where they have shot over 50% and others where they have shot under 20% from deep, bringing them above teams like Middlebury, and making them fall to the since eliminated Bowdoin Polar Bears. They have an advantage of overall athleticism that should take them past Nazareth, but still ride heavily on the success of star player G Kena Gilmour ’19. Gilmour averages 17.6 PPG and 7.2 REB/G and has taken 37 shots in their last two games. His supporting cast includes F Michael Grassey who averages 12.9 PPG but has shot just 10-40 in his last four games despite a 47.1 season FG%. The Continentals average 86.9 PPG on the season, over six more points than any other NESCAC team and could go a long way in this dance if they play up to their potential.
How They Lose
Hamilton is going to score and they will play in high scoring games. Their fault is perimeter defense, often allowing opponents to take a high number of shots. While their rebounding numbers are great with several players holding double-digit board potential, they allowed Williams to take 32 threes last weekend, a ridiculous number compared to the 18 deep shots taken by Hamilton. Now, although the total number of shots was about even (67-64), if Hamilton’s opponent can get hot, then they will fall behind if they have a cold streak of their own from beyond the arc. We have seen such cold streaks like against Tufts in the NESCAC quarterfinals when they shot just 16.7% from three point range. They allowed the eighth most points in the league, a surprisingly high number given that they lost just three regular season games.
The Competition
Nazareth College Golden Flyers (20-7, 13-3)
The Golden Flyers earned the Empire 8 conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, winning their last two games by a combined three total points. They didn’t receive any votes in the D3 top 25 and are ranked fourth in the East regional rankings. Their only common game with Hamilton was against Utica who Hamilton beat 90-85. Nazareth lost to Utica 56-59 in their first meeting and beat them in the conference finals 66-64. They have the Empire 8 conference player of the year, Tyler Stenglein, who averages 19.6 PPG and shoots 42.9% from three point range. They lack a strong rebounding presence, giving Hamilton an unusual defensive edge, with their best big hauling in just 8.7 REB/G. They shoot a solid 38.3% from deep and could pose a threat to Hamilton if they get hot, but the Continentals still have the offensive edge. While Nazareth has shooting prowess, Hamilton is the clear favorites in this first round game.
Yeshiva University Maccabees (18-10, 13-7)
The first time Skyline Conference champions and first time NCAA tournament participants look like big underdogs heading into the weekend. They won their conference finals after sneaking past the #1 and #2 seeds in the Skyline conference in the semifinals and then the championship, going to OT against Farmingdale State to reach the final game. Their win against Farmingdale State was the Maccabees’ best win of the season, even though the Rams were slotted at just eighth in the Atlantic regional rankings. They lost to Williams 78-65 and Ramapo 90-71 (ranked #6 nationally at the time) and haven’t seen too many strong opponents. Their top scorer, Simcha Halpert, averages 21.0 PPG, while the next two highest scorers both sink over 17.0 PPG too. Williams shot under 30% from three against Yeshiva but still managed to win easily as a result of their 18 foul shots taken, putting them over the edge against a less experienced team. I don’t imagine that the Maccabees will topple York in the first round, but if they do, Hamilton might just have an easy ticket to the Sweet-16.
York College Spartans (23-4, 14-4)
Here is one of the few downsides to this Spartan team: Of their four losses, only one is to a quality team. The converse of this is that they played two of the teams again that beat them, Salisbury and Christopher Newport, and got vengeance on their earlier match ups, leading York to the CAC conference championship, an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, and home games for the first two rounds. Two of their players average over 17 PPG although only one averages over six rebounds per game (Hamilton has three players over 6.0 REB/G). They are comparable to Hamilton shooting, averaging 83.0 PPG and within one percentage point of both their FG and 3-PT clips. They are 2-0 against ranked teams this season in #11 Swarthmore and our own #18 Middlebury, posing a serious threat to the Continentals. The Spartans dropped 90 points against Midd, hauling in an impressive 52 boards against a team with a deep front-court presence. The Panthers did shoot just 24.1% from beyond the arc in that game, although the game featured more shooting than a normal contest. The Spartans also showed they could out dish a pass heavy Middlebury team, collecting 16 assists to 13, which is about what Hamilton averages per game (15). Like Hamilton, this team can get hot from deep too, shooting 47% from three in their win against Swarthmore, putting them as a similar team the Continentals. If the Spartans meet Hamilton in the round of 32, if will come down to which team shoots better from deep in a high scoring affair.