Middlebury (1-1) @ Colby (0-2)
The Panthers have some serious problems right now: first and foremost, the run defense was abysmal in their 37-24 win against Bowdoin. The Polar Bears averaged a mere 98 rushing yards per game last season, but were able to compile a whopping 289 yards on the ground against a porous Middlebury defense. Not to be overlooked, quarterback Jack Meservy ’19 was benched late in the third quarter after throwing his third interception. On came Will Jernigan ‘21, who relied heavily on running backs Peter Scibilia ’21 and Drew Jacobs ’19 to orchestrate two scoring drives and secure the victory. Clearly there is a quarterback controversy brewing in Middlebury, and it will be interesting to see how snaps are split (if at all) this Saturday in Waterville.
Luckily for Middlebury, Colby is the perfect team to play against in this situation and correct such problems. The Mules also seem to have a quarterback question, as Jack O’Brien ’20 was yanked for youngster Matt Hersch ‘22; the former struggled mightily, going 1-8 for a paltry three yards. Hersch was quite impressive in his first extensive action as a member of the Mules, finishing 14-18 for 119 yards. Colby’s pass defense has far exceeded expectations through the first two games of the season: opposing quarterbacks are completing less than 40% of their pass attempts (18-46). The problem lies in the run defense, as the Mules are giving up over 300 yds/game on the ground.
What’s going to happen: To start things off, I’m going to say both teams stay true to their mid-game quarterback changes; Meservy has yet to show the capability to limit mistakes (he leads the NESCAC with six interceptions) and O’Brien was unable to lead the Mule offense to a single scoring drive in his first two games. I’m interested to see if both backups can capitalize on their respective starter’s ineffectiveness, and this game presents the perfect opportunity for both Middlebury and Colby to see if there are better options at the quarterback position. For the Panthers, Jernigan and the run-heavy approach he brings is a better suited game plan to attack the Mule run defense (or lack thereof). On the opposite end, starting Hersch forces the Panthers to respect the pass and could potentially open more running lanes for Colby workhorse Jake Schwern ’19. The Mules have every right to believe they can win this game, but the Panthers are too talented and will ultimately pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Middlebury 30 – Colby 13
Amherst (2-0) @ Bowdoin (0-2)
After another slow first half, the Amherst offense exploded for 23 points in 17 minutes as they cruised past the Continentals 37-14. Quarterback Ollie Eberth ‘20 remains the key piece for this team, as he accounted for 225 all-purpose yards and three scores. The Amherst defense is off to a great start, allowing a mere 39 rushing yds/game. Versatile pass-rusher Andrew Yamin ’19 has been a nightmare to block, totaling four tackles for loss through the first two games.
The Polar Bears were oh so close to pulling off the upset against Middlebury last week, ultimately falling 37-24. The Polar Bears actually led 24-23 late in the third quarter, but failed to score in the final 15 minutes and the defense could not contain the run. Nate Richam ’20 set a new school-record for most rushing yards in a single contest with 289, adding two scores in the process. Division 1 transfer Austin McCrum struggled again, barely completing 50% of his pass attempts and throwing three interceptions. In order for Bowdoin to have any shot this Saturday, McCrum has to be more effective.
What’s going to happen: Bowdoin turned some heads last weekend with the emergence Richam, but this week feels like it could be all Mammoths. Amherst will most certainly stack the box in an attempt to limit Richam’s success while forcing McCrum to out gun their secondary. Can McCrum shake off his slow start? My guess is no, especially against a stingy defensive unit that’s anxious to prove they belong in the conversation for the league’s best. Bowdoin also comes in to this contest allowing a league-worst 324.5 rushing yds/game, and the Mammoths churn out 267 rushing yds/game….something tells me Amherst will establish the run early and often. Eberth will get his fair share of yards, running back Jack Hickey ’19 will find the end zone a couple of times, and the Mammoths will gash the Polar Bear D.
Prediction: Amherst 37 – Bowdoin 16
Hamilton (0-2) @ Wesleyan (1-1)
The Continentals aren’t the only team in the ‘CAC who have had trouble stopping the run; in their 37-14 defeat at the hands of Amherst, Hamilton allowed over 300 yards on the ground. A larger problem might be their inability to run the ball. Hamilton has run the ball 42 times…..for 7 yards. For you math wizards, that’s 3.5 yards A GAME. I’m not a defensive genius by any means, but it’s fairly easy to see opposing defenses are not respecting the Continental rushing unit or their offensive line. Quarterback Kenny Grey ’20 bounced back from an abysmal performance against Tufts, but he desperately needs some help from his ground unit this week. Otherwise, this is going to be a blow out.
No disrespect to the Jumbos (who played their hearts out), but Wesleyan beat themselves last Saturday. In addition to essentially giving the Jumbos seven points on a fumble during a kickoff, some of the Cardinals’ miscues included: giving up a 3rd and 16 conversion (led to a touchdown), a failed 4th and 1 conversion inside the Jumbo 10 yd line, and two missed field goals (one of them from the 27 yards). Mark Piccirillo ’19 accounted for 267 of Wesleyan’s 334 total yards, but failed to register a single touchdown. The Cardinal defense has been superb in their first two NESCAC games and when disregarding the touchdown Tufts scored when they started at Wesleyan’s own 11 yard line, they gave up a mere nine points. They’re tied for first in the NESCAC with four interceptions, and the secondary will be licking their chops this weekend, hoping to tally a few more.
What’s going to happen: Hamilton has clearly been a disappointment through the early portion of the season, and I don’t see it getting any better this weekend. The Continentals simply can’t run the ball and Gray can only do so much through the air when the defense is only worried about stopping the aerial attack. The Cardinals know they must win out to have any chance at claiming a NESCAC Championship, and I expect Piccirillo to take the bull by the horns with a monster performance. Wesleyan will come out firing early and keep their foot on the gas in an absolute blowout.
Prediction: Wesleyan 41 – Hamilton 10
Bates (0-2) @ Tufts (2-0)
After a phenomenal effort against Amherst, Bates fell apart against the Bantams. Despite a stagnant offense, the Bobcat defense kept them in the game with 4:30 left in the second quarter after Anthony Costa’s ‘21 pick six. The Bantams then scored 14 points to close out the half, and two fumbles early in the 3rd quarter all but confirmed the loss. The 59 points is an extremely ugly number, but I’d argue it’s predominantly on the offense: Bates is averaging a horrific 126 ypg, and is second-to-last in time of possession. Hard-hitting safety John Lindgren ’20 and the rest of the defense need the offensive unit to produce more sus
tained drives; against Trinity, the Bobcats had seven three-and-outs along with two fumbles within the first three plays of a drive. The air-raid offense is going to take some time to become effective, but the ‘Cats need to manufacture more first downs in order to (at the very least) give their defensive unit a much needed breather.
On the flip side, the Tufts defense stymied Wesleyan’s potent attack en route to a 16-13 victory. They didn’t force any takeaways (special teams caused the only fumble) but they had seven TFL and came up with a monumental 4th down stop in their own red zone. Quarterback Ryan McDonald ’19 did just enough against a tough Cardinal defense, throwing for 172 yards and two scores. It should be easier to move the ball against the Bobcats, but Tufts will look to establish some sort of run game; after racking up 207 yards on the ground vs. Hamilton, the Jumbos came up with just 55 yards against the Cardinals.
What’s going to happen: With last week’s performance, Tufts has squarely positioned themselves as a championship-caliber team. They cannot afford a letdown against the Bobcats, who will be hungry to prove they’re better than last week’s beatdown indicated. I’ll predict a defensive stalwart for most of the first half, but Tufts will finally wear down the Bates defense as the second half progresses. The Bobcats will have a hard time moving the ball against Tuft’s stout D, and McDonald will lead the Jumbos to a 3-0 start.
Prediction: Tufts 27 – Bates 13
Wesleyan is completely overrated! This was supposed to be their year. They lacked so much discipline over the last two games, and that is why they lost. The coaches need to take the hit in that one. They just got beat by a team they should have beaten by 30 . The talent between Wesleyan and Hamilton isn’t even close. How in the world can that happe. Not sure what is happening over in Middletown this fall, but it is a real embarrassment. They put so much emphasis into football with all their full time coaches, and give them unlimited players. I’m not sure how many how many full-time guys a have, but I think it’s a lot more than most of the leauge. Not good for the athletic program if they can’t beat a team like Hamilton with their talent. Why put all those resources into a program that is 5-4 each year, and maybe 6-3 on a decent year. Not worth your investment!