Author: Ryan Moralejo

Disrespected No More: Medford Regional Preview

#20 Tufts (21-6, 9-2, NESCAC Champions)

Tufts secured their first NESCAC Championship in program history this past weeked, surviving a grueling double-overtime game against Colby in what will surely go down as an instant classic.  Despite leading by as many as seventeen points late in the first half, the Jumbos simply could not put away the feisty Mules; maintaining a nine-point advantage with just under eight minutes remaining in regulation, Tufts allowed the visitors to surge ahead on a 15-2 run, capped off by Sam Jefferson’s three-ball with 2:51 on the clock. With the Jumbos trailing by one with eleven ticks left, a missed layup by senior leader Eric Savage ‘20 seemed to signal a potential sour ending in the team’s journey to capture a NESCAC Championship on their own floor.  However, Savage was given an opportunity to redeem himself after Matt Hanna ‘21 calmly knocked down two free throws to stretch Colby’s advantage to three with six seconds remaining. The decision made by Coach Damien Strahorn to not foul was quite puzzling (although it is easier to say this behind a keyboard and not in the heat of the moment), but it nevertheless came back to bite the Mules as Savage drained a triple to send the game to overtime. The teams traded leads back-and-forth during the first few minutes, and Savage once again came up big with another three-ball to knot the game at 83 with 52 seconds left.  The Mules answered thanks to Will King’s layup, but it was the Jumbos who once again refused to quit; Savage’s missed jumper was followed up by Dylan Thoerner ‘23, who was fouled with virtually zeros on the game clock. In arguably the most intense atmosphere the rookie had experienced in his playing career to this date, Thoerner cooly sunk both free throws to force double overtime. In the final five minutes, big man Luke Rogers ‘21 gave the Jumbos the lead for good with a layup followed by a successful three-point play, and with a plethora of converted free throws down the stretch, the Tufts’ players, coaches and fans erupted with joy as the seconds ran down, knowing they had finally emerged victorious. 

How they Got Here

Luke Rogers ’21 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

All roads to success for the Jumbos lead through the duo of Savage and Rogers, who averaged a combined 32.7 ppg during the regular season.  The two compliment each other very well, as opposing teams are normally left with no choice but to provide help defense with whoever is guarding Rogers down low, allowing for extra driving lanes and an extended perimeter to shoot from for Savage and the rest of the Jumbos’ sharpshooters. The veteran leadership from Savage, the only senior on the Jumbos’ roster, is extremely impressive considering where the Jumbos are now compared to a season ago. Despite flashing glimpses of their potential such as their shocking upset against top-seeded Middlebury in the NESCAC Quarterfinals, the 2019 season saw Tufts finish just 12-14 with a 4-6 record in-conference. The maturation and focus that was required of this team in order to regularly compete at the highest level was met with open arms, and the reward is the team’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2016.

While the offense certainly had its moments, the defense was key concerning Tufts’ successful path to securing a regional host.  The Jumbos boast one of the stingiest defensive units in the conference, allowing opponents to shoot just 41% from the field. They don’t force a ton of turnovers (12.4 per game) but rather grind down opponents by keeping them outside the paint, leaving defenses frustrated after forcing contested shot after shot.  And despite the lack of turnovers as a whole, steals have not been a problem to come by; all the guards have very active hands, constantly pressuring the ball-handlers and making life as uncomfortable as possible for the opposition.

How they Lose

The Jumbos certainly have flaws on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end, poor free-throw shooting has plagued this team all season long.  Quite frankly, it is a minor miracle they lost just six games while shooting 64% from the line as a team. Amongst the nine members of the team who average twelve minutes or more during a contest, only three of them (Brennan Morris ‘21 – 84.5%, Tyler Aronson ‘22 – 83.1%, and Thoerner – 78.3%) are reliable from the charity stripe. The other six? 56.3%. I have mentioned this in the past, but Rogers in particular can be exploited for his poor shooting efforts (79-171 from the free throw line this season, good for 46.2%) late in games as teams begin to foul intentionally. 

Another common factor that seems to reoccur when the Jumbos drop a contest is the number of fouls the team picks up. As good as the defensive unit is, Tufts leads the NESCAC in fouls committed by a considerable margin with nearly 21 fouls per game. This essentially means that not only will the respective opponent experience a bonus opportunity in each half of the contest, but (more than likely) they will eclipse ten fouls and get to the double bonus. As Tufts heads to the Big Dance, opposing teams with deeper rosters will look to use the Jumbos’ aggressiveness against them and draw contact in order to pile up both the fouls on Tufts and the free throw attempts. Being in a familiar environment, however, should be beneficial for the NESCAC Champions, who have lost just one game in front of their faithful supporters this calendar year.

**Speaking of faithful supporters, shame on Johns Hopkins for hosting a regional and barring fans from partaking in the event. At the very least, the University should have notified the NCAA about their stance regarding the coronavirus and public sporting events sooner, so that the next highest seed could host and this type of situation would not occur. Cowards, all of you. 

The Competition

Western Connecticut St. (20-7, 12-4, Little East Conference Champions)

(Courtesy of LEC Athletics)

The champs out of the Little East Conference started out slow, losing three out of four conference games in early January; however, they caught fire and closed out the season winning ten of eleven, including seven in a row.  While the offense is nothing out of this world, the Colonials boast an extremely deep roster – thirteen players average at least eight minutes a game. Three players average double figures, led by senior forward Fenton Bradley ‘20 (16.1 PPG, 6.3 REB/G). Ahmod Privott ‘22 (10.6 PPG), Jaheim Young ‘23 (10.3 PPG), and first-team all name selection Legend Johnson ‘21 (8.6 PPG) round out the top scoring threats for Western Connecticut St. In all honesty, the Jumbos should have no problem taking care of the Colonials: after all, Bradley is the team’s tallest player at 6’7’’, and even if he were to limit Rogers in some fashion, the Colonials’ supporting cast severely lacks the height and size to continuously bang down low.  I expect a bit of nerves from the Jumbos to begin, but by the second half, things should start flowing. Give me the Jumbos by 15+. 

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 78 – Western Connecticut 62

The Other Two: 

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (23-4, 17-1, at-large bid)

(Courtesy of RPI Athletics)

If Tufts advances to the round of 32, Rensselaer looks like the odds-on favorite to be their next opponent. Prior to falling to Ithaca College, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute was previously the 24th-ranked team in the nation. After an 0-2 start to the season, RPI thoroughly dominated their schedule and only dropped two contests the rest of the way (both to Ithaca College). The tone-setter for this squad is most certainly their defense, allowing a mere 60.6 PPG. Tufts will most certainly have their work cut out for them on the offensive end, as the Engineers force over 16 turnovers per game. Similarly to Western Connecticut St., the offensive unit will not strike a ton of fear into Tufts’ hearts, but they do possess a slew of players that can create their own shots. Patrick Mahoney ‘21 leads all scorers on the Engineers with 15.1 points per contest and chips in with 5.7 rebounds/game. Mason Memmelaar ‘22 (13.2 PPG, 5.5 REB/G) and Dom Black ‘22 (11.4 PPG, 6.2 REB/G) round out the other two reliable scorers, while Johnny Angbazo (43.5% from three) ‘23 and Will Rubin ‘23 (9.2 PPG, 39.1% from three) will absolutely knock down shots if not given the proper attention. 

New England College (21-6, 10-2, New England Collegiate Conference Champions)

(Courtesy of NECC Athletics)

The Pilgrims enter the NCAA Tournament in brilliant form, winners of ten straight (seven of those by double digits).  What’s more is that they already own a victory over the Jumbos, a 59-56 defensive battle that saw Tufts turn the ball over 23 times. The game was quite uncharacteristic for both teams involved, but was especially so for the Pilgrims, who average close to 90 points per game. New England College features five different players who average double figures, led by Izaiah Winston-Brooks ‘20 (18.0 PPG, 5.3 REB/G) and Jamal Allen ‘22 (15.0 PPG).  They love to drive into the lane and get to the free throw line, averaging right around 16 attempts per game. The defense is below average, allowing over 80 points a game and struggles to rebound the ball. It really is quite puzzling that Tufts fell to a team with this poor of a defensive unit, but upon realizing this was a non-conference meeting during the normal conference slate, the sloppy play is not totally surprising. If they meet again, Tufts should be able to re-enforce their defensive superiority and limit the Pilgrims’ talented weapons, but this is certainly a team to keep an eye on as a potential sleeper in this regional. 

And Then There Were Four: Tufts vs. Trinity Semifinal Preview

#1 Tufts (19-6, 8-2) vs. #4 Trinity (17-8, 6-4), 5pm, Medford, MA

Overview

Tufts heads into this match off the heels of a comfortable 83-66 quarterfinal victory over Hamilton that saw four starters reach double figures. Led by veteran guard Eric Savage’s 20 points, the Jumbos blazed out of the gate with a 14-3 run to start the game and never looked back, knocking down 58% of their shots in the process. The regular season NESCAC champions put together as well-rounded of a first half performance as they have had all season (despite turning the ball over eleven times), shooting 64% from the field and stifling the opposition to the tune of just 32.3% and 2-14 from behind the arc. Keeping their foot on the gas, the Jumbos extended their lead as far as 24 points, taking a commanding 64-40 lead with twelve minutes remaining.

Joe Bell ’20 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

The Bantams have had quite the puzzling season, needing overtime to defeat lowly Conn College while beating the likes of Middlebury, Williams and Amherst to claim the tournament’s fourth seed. Despite having the seeding advantage over the Panthers, not many people would have expected Trinity to take down the nation’s 19th-ranked squad, and yet they not only did so for the second time this season, but the boys in blue and yellow did so in convincing fashion.  The offense has been quite sporadic, but the Bantams reached the century mark for the fifth time in 2020, becoming the first team to hang 100 on the Panthers this season. Shooting a sizzling 56.5% from the field, Trinity took a twelve-point lead with Colin Donovan’s jumper with just over three minutes remaining in the first half; from that point onward, the Bantams never let the lead dwindle below a dozen, splatting six threes and converting twenty of their twenty-seven field goals in the second half. 

Tufts X-Factor

Luke Rogers ‘21 (16.2 PPG, 11.9 REB/G, 56.8% FG, 45.9% FT)

(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Rogers is undoubtedly (and literally) the centerpiece of this squad, tallying eight double-doubles in ten NESCAC games thus far. The Player of the Year candidate led the ‘CAC with 11.9 rebounds per game and was fifth in scoring, averaging 16.2 points per contest.  He had what would be perceived by his standards as a quieter effort in the quarterfinals against Hamilton, finishing with fourteen points and six boards; however, there is no doubt that his size and skill set in the low post attracts a multitude of helpside defenders, giving the rest of the team open lanes to drive and shots to knock down. In their emphatic, 30-point victory over the Bantams back in early February, the junior tallied sixteen points (6-11 shooting) and six boards in just 23 minutes. Rogers and the rest of the Jumbos know this semifinal game won’t be as easy as their regular season meeting, and he’ll have to be on his A-game in order to walk out of Cousens Gymnasium with a win. One area he’ll have to improve on is his free throw percentage: over his past four games, Rogers is shooting an abysmal 32% from the charity stripe.  The big fella was not exactly phenomenal at shooting free throws to begin with, but Trinity will know this and use every chance they have to send Rogers to the line instead of giving up an easy bucket (or maybe even implement a hack-a-Rogers strategy). 

Trinity X-Factor

Colin Donovan ‘21 (14 PPG, 3.9 REB/G, 3.3 AST/G, 43.5% 3PT)

(Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Trinity is relatively well-rounded in the scoring department, but Donovan is one of the more pure shooters on this team and will certainly need to score aplenty Saturday afternoon in Medford. The junior rounds out the top-ten scorers in the NESCAC with 16.4 PPG and attempts around six threes per contest. He’s scored fifteen plus in each of his last four games, including dropping 24 on Amherst. Against Tufts in the previous matchup, however, Donovan was uncharacteristically shut down, failing to register a single point in seventeen minutes of action. We here at Nothing But NESCAC certainly don’t expect the same result this time around, but for Trinity to win this game, Donovan will have to take over this game and eclipse 20+ points. He’s certainly capable of doing so (reaching that mark on six occasions to date) and Donovan has had games where he can run up the numbers in the rebounding and assists department(s). Trinity will surely need him to have one of his best performances of the entire season in order to have a real shot at knocking off the Jumbos. 

Final Thoughts

This game is especially perplexing because of how volatile the Bantams have been this season. Just in February alone, Trinity has played six games and only one of them was decided by single digits. The other five? Three victories by an average of (approximately) 20 points, and two defeats by an average of 24.5 points.  The Jumbos entered conference play on the back end of two consecutive defeats, causing people to question if this team reached its peak too early in the season. Any such concerns were quelled after cruising past the Continentals, and now get the privilege of hosting a team that they embarrassed just a few weeks ago. At 17-8, Trinity probably needs a win against Tufts to join the conversation in securing an at-large bit to the NCAA Tournament and bolster their resume (although a sweep of Middlebury and a road win against Amherst looks pretty darn good). Tufts, despite dropping out of the top 25 rankings, should still be firmly locked into postseason play regardless of Saturday’s result. 

Despite both defenses ranking in the top three in terms of defensive field goal percentage within the NESCAC, I expect both offenses to have their fair share of points in this one.  The Jumbos know they have the size advantage with Rogers down low and should allow him to pound away and kick the ball out to open shooters. Furthermore, the Bantams allow over 81 PPG despite holding opponents to under 42% from the field, and a large part of that dilemma has to do with the fact that Trinity is ninth in terms of turnovers (13.4 per game). Nonetheless, the Bantams will be confident coming off such a strong performance against the NESCAC’s highest-ranked team in the national polls. In a tight first half where Trinity does just enough to keep the game within distance, give me Tufts to make a run in the last quarter of the game and hold off the boys from Hartford. 

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 86 – Trinity 74

Love (And Postseason Hope) Is in the Air: Weekend Preview 2/14

Friday

Hamilton (14-8, 2-6) vs. Conn College (4-18, 0-8), 7pm, Clinton, NY

Because of their loss last weekend to Bowdoin, Hamilton must win both their games this weekend in order to even possibly qualify for the postseason tournament; if Bates and/or Bowdoin wins one game, Hamilton will be eliminated regardless of their outcomes. The Continentals wouldn’t have been in this position had they not blown a 23-point lead in the second half of their game against the Polar Bears, but they’ll need to shake that one off and take the Camels seriously in order to move on to Saturday and keep their postseason hopes alive. It’s already been established that Kena Gilmour ‘20 is the heart and soul of this team as he’s the only player averaging double figures, but someone else really has to step up during these last two games as a reliable second scorer. Even if it’s the Gilmour show again, Hamilton can get away with it against Conn, although it won’t be as comfortable of a win as they’d like it to be.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 78, Conn 69

Amherst (16-6, 6-2) vs. Trinity (15-7, 5-3), 7pm, Amherst, MA

With both teams having already locked down postseason spots, this game remains crucial for seeding purposes. After last week’s impressive sweep of both Bowdoin and Colby, the Mammoths are just half a game behind the Mules and have an opportunity to leap them for the second seed. Conversely, a slip-up against Trinity would allow the Bantams to surpass them, so it’s safe to say this one will be a hotly-contested matchup. Trinity rebounded from their beatdown against Tufts by absolutely throttling the slumping Bobcats. Nick Seretta ‘20, Colin Donovan ‘21, and the rest of the Bantams’ bench ran the show, pouring in 65 points. It should be a tight and hotly-contested affair early, and while Trinity has had a slew of impressive victories during the course of the season, Amherst currently has the hotter hand and will deliver a huge win in front of their home crowd.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 77, Trinity 68

#12 Colby (20-2, 7-2) vs. Wesleyan (13-9, 2-6), 7pm, Waterville, ME

The Mules have now lost conference games in consecutive weeks, officially eliminating them from obtaining the number one seed in the postseason tournament. Even in their close win against Hamilton this past Friday, the Mules struggled to put together a complete effort and record a convincing win. Most of their problems have (surprisingly) come on the offensive end in recent games, including their 72-61 win against Bates on Tuesday evening. The Mules shot just 39% from the field, with multiple major contributors struggling (Matt Hanna ‘21, Noah Tyson ‘22 and Alex Dorion ‘20 a combined 5-26 from three). Thankfully for Colby, their defense saved the day with fantastic perimeter defense. At 2-6 in conference play, the Cardinals would need to win out and have some help in order to steal that final seed. Having dropped four consecutive conference games, however, doesn’t instill much confidence in me to believe they can actually achieve this. We don’t know the status of Jefferson, but I expect the Mules to bounce back regardless and shake off those offensive woes. 

Writer’s Pick: Colby 88, Wesleyan 75

#10 Middlebury (19-3, 5-3) vs. #18 Tufts (18-4, 8-0), 7pm, Middlebury, VT

Tufts has already secured the title of regular season champions, but this match-up poses real threats to their unblemished conference record.  Similarly to the Mules, the Panthers like to spread opponents out; however, they have some more height to combat star big man Luke Rogers ‘21 with the duo of Matt Folger ‘20 and Ryan Cahill ‘21 (still waiting on the return of big man Alex Sobel ‘22). The defense has started to show signs of tightening things up, and the offense drained fourteen triples in their last game against Wesleyan. As for the Jumbos, don’t think that this game is meaningless because they’ve already wrapped up the top seed for the conference tournament. Despite having accomplished that in addition to a victory over the Mules, the Jumbos are slotted eighteen in the national polls, a distant third behind #12 Colby and #10 Middlebury. Tufts will surely feel disrespected and motivated to leave Pepin Gym with a resounding victory. It feels like we’ve been waiting for Tufts to finally drop a game in conference play, and I think we might just see it today as they venture outside the confines of Medford. Rogers and veteran guard Eric Savage ‘20 will surely make this a game, but I think the Panthers put together another well-rounded performance to give the Jumbos their first conference loss. 

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 83, Tufts 76

Williams (11-11, 4-4) vs. Bates (11-11, 3-5) 7pm, Williamstown, MA

Last week’s win against Wesleyan was significant because it locked down a top eight seed for Williams. Where they will finish, however, is anyone’s guess. Currently occupying the sixth seed, the Ephs are one game behind the four seed, and conversely are one and a half games ahead of Bowdoin for the eight spot. They’ve had their ups-and-downs this season, but this game might just come down to how effective our Nothing But NESCAC brethren Matthew Karpowicz ‘20 is. Coach App surely has seen the numbers Luke Rogers put up against the Bobcats and will try to recreate offensive sets for his big man similar to how the Jumbos featured theirs. For the Bobcats, it’s been tough sledding on offense end these past two games, and that’s not a great sign considering the Ephs are second in the NESCAC in points allowed per game. Bates needs just a single win in one of their next two games to automatically qualify for the conference tourney, but with the potential absence of sharp-shooter Kody Greenhalgh ‘20, another poor shooting night could derail those hopes.

Writer’s Pick: Williams 71, Bates 65

Saturday

Amherst (16-6, 6-2) vs. Conn College (4-18, 0-8), 3pm, Amherst, MA

Onto the Saturday slate, where Amherst really should have no problem dealing with a Conn team that seems primed to go winless in conference play for the third consecutive year. The Mammoths seem to have been motivated upon their disappearance from the Top 25 rankings back in mid-January; most notably, they’ve found a real groove on offense, averaging 84.8 ppg over their past five contests. That’s a scary statistic for the rest of the NESCAC given that Amherst also boasts the league’s top defensive unit. 

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83, Conn College 62

Hamilton (14-8, 2-6) vs. Trinity (15-7, 5-3), 3pm, Clinton, NY

Not to overlook the Conn game, but this match-up right here is essentially do-or-die for the Continentals.  Under the presumption that Hamilton beats Conn, even if they win against Trinity, they may not make the conference tournament if Bates wins one game or if Bowdoin defeats Wesleyan. However, they surely don’t have a chance if they drop this contest against the Bantams, so they’ll need to rally together on Senior Day because everyone wants to see Gilmour work his magic in the postseason. Unfortunately for the Continentals’ faithful, I just don’t see enough consistency out of this team to merit a victory over a better caliber opponent. Take the over on Gilmour’s points, but the Bantams will grind down the home team and leave New York victorious.

Writer’s Pick: Trinity 77, Hamilton 72

Williams (11-11, 4-4) vs. #18 Tufts (18-4, 8-0), 3pm, Williamstown, MA

Whether they win or lose against Middlebury on Friday, the The Jumbos will be weary from their game against the Panthers as they hit the road again to take on the Ephs.  This match-up pits the two best big men in the conference against one another in Rogers and Karpowicz. Karpowicz might have the experience, but Rogers has been more of a force on the glass and has the surrounding shooters to allow for more isolation plays. The Eph defense will keep this one close for a half or so, but give me the Jumbos to conclude their end-of-season road trip with a quality victory. 

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 74, Williams 64

#10 Middlebury (19-3, 5-3) vs. Bates (11-11, 3-5), 3pm, Middlebury, VT

On paper this appears as if it could be a bloodbath given the way both teams are trending, but circle this one as a hangover game for the Panthers.  I really do think they defeat Tufts on Friday, and if they do, then I fully expect a sluggish start against a Bates team that could very well be playing for their playoff lives on Saturday. That kind of desperation, coupled with a more relaxing vibe on Senior Day after an important home victory the previous night is a recipe for a bit of chaos. Key cogs in the offense such as Stephon Baxter ‘23 and Jeff Spellman ‘20, haven’t shot well recently, but with some added adrenaline it’s very possible the offense starts knocking down shots.  I’m not saying Bates will win, but I believe this one will be much closer than most people believe. Middlebury scrapes by with a win, and Bates still makes the tournament with Hamilton’s loss to Trin.

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 83, Bates 78

Sunday

Bowdoin (8-15, 3-6) vs. Wesleyan (13-9, 2-6), 3pm, Brunswick, ME

Winners of two of their past three, the Polar Bears are currently holding onto the last remaining spot in the conference tournament. They must defeat Wesleyan, however, as a loss would in all likelihood bounce them out. A huge piece of Bowdoin’s run has been star David Reynolds ‘20. The senior poured in 33 points in their remarkable overtime comeback against Hamilton, and can get hot very quickly from just about anywhere on the floor. Wesleyan doesn’t really have a defined, go-to scorer like how Bowdoin has Reynolds, although Antone Walker ‘21 and Jordan James 21 form a nice duo. Still, it’s hard not to believe the Polar Bears will rise up on Senior Day in the most important game of their season, and behind David Reynold’s 25+ points, Bowdoin will finally secure a playoff berth in a thrilling win.

Writer’s Pick: Bowdoin 79, Wesleyan 76

All Roads Go Through Medford: Stock Report 2/6

Stock Up

Tufts

This one is relatively straightforward, but the Jumbos are for real: anyone who was not a believer in this squad before Saturday’s monumental home victory against the Mules, you are surely one now. Tufts was not even remotely phased by Colby’s plethora of talented guards, sticking with their plan of centering their offense around big man Luke Rogers ‘21.  The big fella got his own with 19 points and 12 boards, and both Eric Savage ‘20 (22 points, 6 rebounds) and Tyler Aronson ‘22 (14 points) provided big buckets down the stretch, allowing Tufts to pull away. What was most impressive above all, however, was the stifling defense displayed by the Jumbos against one of the country’s most prolific offenses. Tufts held Colby to just 41% shooting from the field, smothering (in particular) Sam Jefferson ‘20 (three points on 1-5 shooting). With an immaculate 6-0 record in conference, Tufts is now (in theory) two full games ahead of Colby for first place because of their head-to-head victory and should absolutely be placed higher than their #21 national ranking.  The slate ahead won’t be particularly easy with road games remaining against Trinity, Middlebury and Williams, but the Jumbos fear no one and have made it clear to the rest of the NESCAC that they (not Colby) are the best team in the league. 

Donald Jorden Jr. ‘21 and Trinity

Don’t look now, but Jorden is quietly cementing himself as one of the best big men in the NESCAC. Over the past three games, the 6’6’’ junior is averaging 16.0 PPG and a jaw-dropping 15.6 REB/G. His seven offensive rebounds in Trinity’s upset victory against Middlebury displays how relentless Jorden is on the glass, and it is truly safe to say that he is the most instrumental player to both the Bantams’ recent success.  The weekend sweep of Middlebury and Williams vaulted Trin into the third spot in the standings, and with a home game against Tufts still to come, a higher ascension within the conference standings is not totally out of the question. 

League Parity

It’s not even March and the NESCAC is already experiencing some early madness vibes. Aside from Tufts (6-0), Colby (6-1), and Conn (0-6), the rest of the NESCAC is separated by two games or fewer.  While it may come to hurt some teams seeking an at large bid, it nonetheless makes for an exciting home stretch in which no game is really an absolute gimme for any team. Even the infamous Conn College, despite their winless streak in conference play reaching 27 games, has started to show signs of life with a double-overtime heartbreaker to in-state rival Trinity coupled with a hard-fought loss to Middlebury (whom they were beating midway through the second half). Bowdoin’s upset over Bates has allowed them back into the playoff picture, patiently waiting behind the cluster of Williams, Bates, Hamilton and Wesleyan, all sitting with four losses. Next week will surely see some movement in the standings, but I’ll be the first to admit that most of these matches can go either way. 

Stock Down

Bates’ Playoff Chances

The Bobcats might very well be the most volatile team in the ‘CAC this season – they can compete with the very best (as we saw last weekend giving the Jumbos all they could handle), and yet struggle with some of the traditional bottom-feeders. This type of behavior was on full display on Friday and Saturday; Bates went toe-to-toe with Colby for roughly 25 minutes before the defense collapsed, and then proceeded to sleepwalk the following day against Bowdoin. Having already defeated the Polar Bears comfortably by 14 on the road earlier this season, I assumed that, despite the natural hangover that comes with losing to your rival, the ‘Cats would rebound quickly against their other in-state rival in a must-win game. Instead, the Bobcats turned in their worst offensive performance of the season, shooting an abysmal 31.9% from the field. Sitting at 2-4 in conference play and currently tied for seventh (they hold the tiebreaker over Hamilton and Wesleyan due to their head-to-head victories), Bates is still firmly in the playoff picture – however, all four of their remaining conference games are on the road, and besides Conn (who is still not nearly as much of a pushover as we previously thought), all of those games are against very quality opponents in Trinity, Williams, and Middlebury.  It’s safe to say the Bobcats now face an absolute must-win against the Camels, and will probably need another victory from that other group of three in order to safely secure a spot in the conference tournament. 

Middlebury

The Panthers are in trouble not so much for the conference tournament as they are for their overall seeding come national tourney time. Checking in as the current five seed in the NESCAC isn’t the best look for a top fifteen team nationally, who is expected to run the table of sorts and dominate inferior opponents. It was a relatively rough weekend for Midd as they dropped one to Trinity and severely struggled with Conn until midway through the second half. The remaining slate isn’t the most favorable for the Panthers, having to hit the road next weekend to face a desperate Cardinals team before hosting both the undefeated Jumbos and a talented, yet inconsistent Bobcats squad the following weekend. The offense has experienced a slight downward tick in production over those past two games, but there’s plenty of time for a team as uber-talented as Middlebury to pick up the pace and head into the conference tournament on a high note.

A Mix of Rivalry Week and Marquee Matchups: 1/25 Weekend Preview

Amherst (11-6, 2-2) vs. Hamilton (12-5, 1-3), 3pm, Amherst, MA

Both of these teams really need a win to get back on track. Amherst followed up a nice road win against Bates by getting smacked in the mouth by Tufts, then proceeded to drop another game to Williams to complete the season sweep (albeit this was the non-conference tilt). Hamilton has plummeted towards the bottom of the standings with a dismal 1-3 conference record, and Kena Gilmour ‘20 is getting absolutely no help from the rest of his starters. The Bobcats did a great job limiting Gilmour to just fifteen points, but the rest of the starters combined to shoot 28%. What’s even more alarming for the Continentals is that they let the Bobcats splat eleven threes – the night prior, Amherst held the ‘Cats to just one triple. That combination of lackluster defense and inconsistent offensive production is, quite simply, not good enough to beat a team like Amherst. As long as Eric Sellew ‘20, Fru Che ‘21, and company are patient on offense and knock down their open looks, the Mammoths will have no problem getting by the Continentals. 

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83, Hamilton 70

Conn College (3-12, 0-3) vs. Trinity (11-6, 1-2), 3pm, New London, CT

Two words to describe Trinity’s performance against Wesleyan last weekend: not good. The Bantams shot just 33.3% from the field, including a head-scratching 10-30 from two. Conversely, Wesleyan got just about anything they wanted from inside the arc. The good news for the Trin faithful is that they essentially have a bye week against Conn, who just got absolutely obliterated 98-59 against the Cardinals. Although everything is falling apart for the Camels, the defense is especially a problem as they’ve now allowed at least 83 points in each of their three conference games. Trinity seems to have some offensive woes, but it would take an especially poor shooting day (think in the 20’s) for Trinity to drop this one. I’ve got Donald Jorden ‘21 tallying a double-double as Trinity rolls by double digits. 

Writer’s Pick: Trinity 85, Conn 64

Bowdoin (5-10, 1-3) vs. #5 Colby (16-0, 4-0), 3pm, Brunswick, ME

Just like Trin and Conn, this inter-state bout looks like it won’t be very close.  Colby has asserted themselves as the alpha dog in the NESCAC after their road victories against Middlebury and Williams. The most important stat from those two games is that they only turned the ball over a combined 19 times, signaling that this group feels no pressure in some of the more hostile environments in the conference. Sam Jefferson ‘20 has to be considered the MVP of the league by a considerable margin at this point, and it helps to have three alternate (and equally as talented) scoring options in Matt Hanna ‘21 (14.8 PPG, 4.1 AST/G), Alex Dorion ‘20 (14.1 PPG) and Noah Tyson ‘22 (12.4 PPG, 8.7 REB/G). What’s more, they annihilated Bowdoin by 46!!! earlier this season. In the second half alone against the Polar Bears, Colby exploded for 67 points and knocked down eleven threes. While it won’t be that much of a route this time around, expect the Mules to blow their rivals out of the water by at least twenty. 

Writer’s Pick: Colby 92, Bowdoin 68

#12 Middlebury (16-2, 2-2) vs. Williams (9-8. 2-2), 3pm, Middlebury, VT 

While Tufts and Bates could be viewed as the game of the week, I’m casting my vote for this particular matchup due to the unfamiliarity in the standings for both teams. Both Williams and Middlebury sit at .500 in conference play, and a loss would drop either team near that #8 seed cut-off for the conference tournament. Both these teams will almost certainly make the tournament when it’s all said and done, but the situation still presents an intriguing scenario. The Panthers had to have a quick turnaround after dropping a tough home matchup against the Mules, and they successfully did so by throttling the Polar Bears 93-71. Five Middlebury players hit double figures, led by Max Bosco ‘21 and Tommy Eastman ‘21.  The defense is still a bit of a concern as the Polar Bears were able to hang around until the Panthers’ offense pulled away in the second half, but luckily for the Panthers, the Ephs isn’t known for their explosive offense. Williams likes to grind out games with a stout defense, and while it didn’t work against Colby, they held both Bowdoin and Amherst to 62 and 60 points, respectively. Jovan Jones ‘22 found his shooting touch with seventeen points, and Cole Prowitt-Smith ‘23 continued to impress with fourteen of his own. If this game was at Williams, I would consider looking into the upset; in the end, however, Middlebury was ranked as highly as number five in the national polls for a reason, and they are too talented drop this one at home. 

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 75, Williams 66

#23 Tufts (13-3, 3-0) vs. Bates (9-6, 2-1), 3pm, Medford, MA

I honestly have no idea what to expect from this one.  Tufts continues to to keep pace with Colby as the last two remaining unbeaten teams in the ‘CAC, having just recently throttled Amherst by 18 in Medford.  Everyone is contributing – all five starters hit double digits against the Mammoths, and the Jumbos got an additional 17 bench points to cushion the win. Right now, Luke Rogers ‘21 is the best big man in the league, having eclipsed twenty points in each of his last four games (three of those were double-doubles).  The Bobcats’ best kept secret (although at this point I think the cat might be out of the bag) is freshman Omar Sarr ‘23. I’ve been raving about Sarr before conference play started, and the big man has become the best rim protector in the league. He’s averaging an absurd five blocks per game in conference play to go along with eleven points and eleven rebounds. He’s the most important player on the Bobcats, because without him, they lack a reliable shot blocker and rebound getter. Both teams have their fair share of shooters, but in the end I think Bates’ inconsistencies on the defensive end will allow Tufts to work inside and out well, pulling away late. The ‘Cats have won three in a row against the Jumbos, however, so a road victory wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 88, Bates 81

A New Face at the Top: Power Rankings 1/16

NESCAC Basketball Power Rankings 1/16

(2) 1. #12 Colby (13-0, 2-0)

Last week: W 83-50 vs. Conn College, W 91-77 vs. Trinity
This week: @ Middlebury, @ Williams

I don’t care what the national polls say – at this point in the season, this is the best basketball team in the NESCAC. As a student at Bates, I’m not the most vehement supporter of the Mules, but it’s hard to ignore their impressive performance over the first thirteen games of the season. They’re the only undefeated team remaining in the conference, averaging a league-best 94.6 PPG. Another marker of dominance is the manner in which most of their contests were won; eleven of their thirteen wins have been by 14+ points. Some will point to their incredible three point percentage (41.9% with over 200 attempts already) as a reason why the Mules won’t keep up their first place standing, but with nearly 24 assists per game compared to just 14 turnovers, Colby is clearly taking care of the ball and finding open guys to knock down shots. They boast four of the top seventeen scorers in the conference, led by Sam Jefferson ‘20 (22.8 PPG). Noah Tyson ‘22 (13.8 PPG, 9 REB/G) opened some eyes as a freshman last season, and his quality of play has picked up against Colby’s first two conference games, tallying 16 points against Conn and 24 against Trinity. Rebounding may be a concern moving forward as the Mules tend to go with a smaller-than-average lineup, but this team is equipped with so many knockdown shooters that they can change a close game to a blowout in a blink of an eye. 

(1) 2. #5 Middlebury (15-1, 1-1)

Last week: L 81-69 @ Amherst, W 77-76 @ Hamilton
This week: vs. Colby, vs. Bowdoin

Panthers’ faithful might be a bit irked to find their squad at number two in this edition of the power rankings, but there is plenty to be excited about going forward. After a disappointing showing in both the NESCAC and NCAA Tournament(s), I am certain Coach Brown and his squad are hungry to bounce back and make a deep postseason run. Thus far, their play has garnered them a top five ranking in the national polls, with their sole blemish coming recently against Amherst in their first conference game of the season. Jack Farrell ‘21 leads a deep group of players in which five average double figures and another three chip in at least 5.5 points per game. Farrell has reached double digits in all sixteen games, including a season-high 31 against Endicott. Tommy Eastman ‘21 had a monster game against Hamilton, going for 23 points and 12 boards. If he continues to play at that level alongside Farrell, Max Bosco ‘21 and company, the Panthers have more than enough offensive firepower to upend the Mules and stake claim as the best team in the conference.

(3) 3. Tufts (11-3, 1-0)

Last week: W 92-85 @ Wesleyan
This week: vs. Hamilton, vs. Amherst

It might be a surprise to see the Jumbos listed as high as number three on this list, but after a somewhat deflating 2018 regular season, Tufts has roared out to an impressive start. Few big men can match up with Luke Rogers ‘22, whose 15.7 PPG lead the Jumbos and his 12.7 REB/G lead all of the NESCAC. With Rogers garnering attention down low, it allows for veteran guards like Eric Savage ‘20 (14.8 PPG) and Brennan Morris ‘21 (11.7 PPG) to execute the offense at an efficient level, working inside and out to shuffle defenses around. In their opening win against Wesleyan, Rogers had another double-double (23 points to go along with 10 rebounds), and the Jumbos shot close to 55% from the field and sank 13 triples. If they can continue operating on offense in this manner while cleaning up the free throw percentage (converting only 15-24 against Wesleyan and 68% on the year), then this team will finish in the top four and garner some attention for an at-large bid when it comes time for NCAA Tournament selection. 

(4) 4. #22 Amherst (10-4, 1-1)

Last week: W 81-69 vs. Middlebury, L 72-69 vs. Williams
This week: @ Bates, @ Tufts

Don’t get me wrong – knocking off what was an undefeated Middlebury team is something that should be valued and highlighted when analyzing a team’s overall body of work.  As strong of a win as that is, however, Amherst finds themselves fourth in the power rankings due to their inconsistent play against conference foes. Their game against Wesleyan was considered a non-conference affair; however, I personally don’t consider the Cardinals as a strong opponent this season, and that loss certainly was something Amherst could have avoided heading into their conference slate. The big victory against the Panthers was followed by a loss to rival Williams, who at 7-7 is looking to be more of a bottom-half finisher in the 2019-2020 NESCAC season. Similarly to the University of Virginia, Amherst wins with its prolific defense, holding opponents to under 64 PPG. They’re 7-0 when holding opponents under 65 points, but Williams and Wesleyan were both able to get into the 70’s range. Eric Sellew ‘20 leads the team in scoring thus far in conference play, but the Mammoths need someone or two to step up from long range and bring some variety to an offense that doesn’t score a ton from deep. 

(5) 5. Hamilton (11-3, 1-1)

Last week: W 79-78 vs. Williams, L 77-76 vs. Middlebury
This week: @ Tufts, @ Bates

It’s basically Kena Gilmour ‘20 vs. everybody when talking about the Continentals. The senior is tied with Jefferson of Colby as the conference’s leading scorer at 22.8 PPG, and no one other than the senior averages double figures (for the season) for Hamilton. It’s clear the offense revolves around him as evidenced by the sheer number of shots he throws up, but thus far the plan is somewhat working. The Continentals have split two conference games (each by a single point) with that one loss coming against Middlebury. Gilmour will most certainly need help around him as his supporting cast looks vastly different than the team that guided Hamilton to the Sweet Sixteen a year ago. Eric Anderson ‘22 seems the most likely candidate to become the Robin to Gilmour’s Batman, as the sophomore is putting in 14.5 PPG in their two conference matchups to date. 

(9) 6. Bates (8-4, 1-0)

Last week: W 81-80 @ Wesleyan
This week: vs. Amherst, vs. Hamilton

It was an absolute rollercoaster of a performance, but the Bobcats managed to escape Middletown with a win over the Cardinals in their preliminary conference tilt.  Kody Greenhalgh ‘20 went from allowing a four-point play with eleven seconds remaining to give the Cardinals the lead, to then scoring a heavily-contested, game-winning layup.  An overall record of 8-4 at this point in the season is pretty solid, and that victory over Wesleyan was imperative if Bates wanted to make some noise in the ‘CAC this season. Greenhalgh joins the veteran Spellman ‘20 (15.5 PPG, 4.2 REB/G) as the two leading scorers, but there are a plethora of guys who can explode on any given night. with some major opportunities to pick up quality wins in the recent future. Stephon Baxter ‘23 is a name to watch for rookie of the year consideration; although his scoring average (8.9 PPG) doesn’t jump off the page, the point guard is a tenacious defender, takes smart shots and is hitting close to 45% of his three point attempts. Thomas Coyne ‘20 is always a threat from behind the arc, and the emergence of Omar Sarr ‘23 as a shotblocker and rebounder has helped a team lacking height tremendously. Given that their next four NESCAC games are Amherst, Hamilton, Tufts and Colby, the Bobcats have plenty of opportunities to snatch up wins against quality opponents. 

(7) 7. Trinity (10-5, 1-1)

Last week: W 84-70 @ Bowdoin, L 91-77 @ Colby
This week: vs. Wesleyan

Aside from the Bobcats, the Bantams are a secondary selection as a dark horse to finish in the top five of the league standings. They boast one of the best rebounding squads in the league and four legit scorers. One name to watch is forward Donald Jorden ‘21 – the junior is shooting over 67% from the field, and given that he only averages 11.7 PPG, I’d advocate for a higher feature role for Jorden if he’s putting the ball in the basket that frequently. The Bantams were beating Colby by seven at intermission before the Mules exploded for 54 points in the second half, so this Trinity team does have what it takes to compete with the upper echelon of this league. Defensively, the Bantams will want to tighten up, and a date with Wesleyan will provide them that test. 

(8) 8. Williams (7-7, 1-1)

Last week: L 79-78 @ Hamilton, W 72-69 @ Amherst
This week: vs. Bowdoin, vs. Colby

This team experienced a ton of roster turnover from last year’s senior-laden team, but even with the emergence of fellow Nothing but NESCAC writer Max Karpowicz ‘20 as the team’s go-to scoring option, the Ephs struggled in their non-conference games heading into league play.  The good news is that the level of play seems to have improved quite rapidly in their games against Hamilton and Amherst. Karpowicz’s (16.0 PPG, 9.1 REB/G) 21 point-performance paced the team in their hard-fought win over Amherst. The Ephs were also missing standout freshman Cole Prowitt-Smith ‘23 (13.3 PPG), validating the win as even more impressive given their offensive woes that plagued them early on. In no way is this ranking meant to indicate that the Ephs should panic, as there are plenty of opportunities in this league to rack up significant victories; moreover, I think this is the floor for Williams, and I expect them to move up given the talent they still possess. 

(6) 9. Wesleyan (9-5, 0-2)

Last week: L 92-85 vs. Tufts, L 81-80 vs. Bates
This week: @ Trinity, vs. Conn College

The loss of Austin Hutcherson ‘21 to the University of Illinois was undoubtedly a huge blow to a Wesleyan squad that had high hopes for the 2019-2020 season. A 9-5 record is nothing to be ashamed about, but the Bates game presented an opportunity to bounce back from a close loss to Tufts. Instead, the loss at home was especially deflating given the manner in which it happened, and a non-conference loss to Johnson & Wales pushed their losing streak to three. They’ve struggled to score for the most part, averaging under 74 ppg and shooting just 41% from the field. Jordan James ‘21 and Antone Walker ‘21 form a nice scoring duo, but the Cardinals lack depth to continuously push the pace and put the ball in the basket for 60 minutes. Additionally, they’ve allowed 80+ points in each of their two conference games, something that needs to be corrected quickly. A matchup against Trinity might not allow them the chance to fix their flaws on the defensive side, but it could allow them the chance to fine tune their offense. 

(10) 10. Bowdoin (5-8, 1-1)

Last week: L 84-70 vs. Trinity, W 87-70 vs. Conn College
This week: @ Williams, @ Middlebury

Apart from its past two games, the Bowdoin offense has been a disaster. They slot in ahead of only Conn in terms of points per game, and aside from David Reynolds ‘20, no one on this team is really playing up to the standard this team needs in order for them to be a serious contender for a top-eight finish. They lost to Trin by fourteen, right after getting absolutely pounded by rival Colby 108-62 (yikes). They did end their losing streak with a much-needed 17-point victory over Conn, scoring 87 points in the process. Reynolds carried the team with 29 points, and both Sam Grad ‘21 and Manav Randhawa ‘23 chipped in with fourteen points apiece. Maybe the offense has found some sort of groove these past two games, but it seems unlikely that they can compete with the likes of Middlebury or Williams this weekend. 

(11) 11. Conn College (3-11, 0-2)

Last week: L 83-50 @ Colby, L 87-70 @ Bowdoin
This week: @ Wesleyan

This team wasn’t very good last year, and with the departure of David Labossiere ‘19, many around the league would agree that not much was expected from Conn this season.  At this point, it seems likely that they will go winless in conference play for a third consecutive year. Everything seems to be a problem: the Camels are averaging 62.8 PPG while allowing close to 75 PPG while committing close to 18 turnovers per contest.  That recipe will certainly not win you many basketball games, and in this case, the Camels have just three wins on their schedule to date. Dan Draffan ‘21 (12.4 PPG, 7.5 REB/G) and newcomer Ben McPherron ‘23 (11.6 PPG) lead the way, but both are inconsistent and McPherron only shoots an abysmal 34% from the floor. Maybe they can pull a miracle win in their remaining league games, but every league game forthcoming will be quite the challenge for these bottom-dwellers. 

A Chance to Wrap it Up: Weekend Preview 11/2

The first weekend in November signals the penultimate weekend of NESCAC football, with a chance to crown a champion by Saturday’s end. Will Middlebury solidify their place among the rest of the competition, or will they slip up and allow Williams or Wesleyan back into the picture? Elsewhere, the Jumbos have a trip to Waterville to face off with Colby, who just got their first win of the season last weekend against Bates. Speaking of the ‘Cats, they are set to finish up their CBB slate with a primetime night contest against the Polar Bears in what is sure to be an intense atmosphere. Let’s get to it. 

For a quick update, here’s how each of our writers are doing in their weekly picks:
Ryan Moralejo: 29-6
Haven Cutko: 28-7
Matt Karpowicz: 27-8
Cameron Carlson: 26-9
Spencer Smead: 24-11

Hamilton (4-3) @ Middlebury (7-0), 12:30pm, Middlebury, Vermont

For Middlebuty, the time is finally here: after weeks of clinging to the top spot, while most of the general public assumed they would eventually trip up, the Panthers have defied all odds and are one win away from claiming their first NESCAC Championship since they were crowned co-champions in 2013. It hasn’t been pretty by any means, but credit Coach Ritter and his staff for a fantastic season to date in addition to earning his 100th career win in their victory last week against Bowdoin. They put their guys in a position to disrupt plays and minimize their opponent’s strengths every weekend, and the players have remained level-headed and poised throughout the early gauntlet of their schedule. Now is not the time to sit back. The Panthers will be sure to not take the Continentals lightly after their recent surge up the standings. Their 36-21 victory against Tufts did not do Hamilton justice for their absolute dominating performance on the road, racing out to a 34-7 lead by halftime. Kenny Gray ‘20 is finally rounding into form, and he added to his recent uptick in quality play by throwing for 236 yards and three touchdowns. Although David Kagan ‘20 was held to just 39 yards, reserve tailback Joe Park ‘22 made it clear that there would be no drop off in production with a career-high 126 yard performance. The Continentals will need to keep their ground game churning against a stout Panthers’ front seven that is second in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game.

The biggest challenge will be Hamilton’s defense versus Middlebury’s offense; what was (for the majority of the season) a below-average defense has been performing well in recent weeks in large part because they’ve continued to force turnovers. Hamilton sits tied for second in the league with seventeen, including multiple takeaways in six of their seven games. WIth the offense finally clicking, those turnovers are being converted into points, and it is clear that this combination has transformed the New Yorkers into a legitimate upset pick for this Saturday. Given the fact that Will Jernigan ‘21 has a tendency to cough up the ball (6 interceptions and 6 fumbles to date), his focus should be on remaining patient and letting the plays develop in front of him; the Continentals are still allowing 373.4 yards and 28 points per game, so it’s more about making smart decisions and not forcing passes into tight windows or holding onto the ball too long. I really want to pick Hamilton just so the last week of NESCAC football is more entertaining, but I believe the Panthers will rally after digging themselves a hole early on, clinching the NESCAC Championship on Senior Day.  

Picks: 
RM: Middlebury 33, Hamilton 27 
HC: Middlebury 31, Hamilton 27
MK: Middlebury 35, Hamilton 20
CC: Middlebury 31, Hamilton 27
SS: Middlebury 35, Hamilton 20

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Tufts (3-4) @ Colby (1-6), 1:00pm, Waterville, Maine

I’ll be honest: I have no real confidence in either team. On paper, Tufts most certainly possesses the better team, but its plethora of individual talent hasn’t been nearly enough to win games. Tufts disappointing season is, in large part, due to the team’s inability to play a well-rounded game. The 49-0 drubbing they handed to Bowdoin gave me a slight indication that the Jumbos might have figured it out, but once again, the defense fell apart. The Jumbos must do something on that side of the ball to stifle the Mules’ offense, such as creating more blitz packages. Turnovers haven’t been in abundance for the defense this season (second worst with only 6 forced), but the Mules have coughed up the football 6 times over the past three weeks. Matt Hersch ‘22 played really well in the first half against Bates, but he was a no-show for the remaining 30 minutes. The special teams was an absolute disaster, with Moises Celaya ‘22 missing an extra point and having both a field goal and a punt blocked. Furthermore, a bad snap cost Celaya 15 yards and gave Bates a chance to tie or win the game in the final minute. Their special teams play has to be impeccable if they want to hang around with the Jumbos on Saturday. Colby is probably more fired up to play Tufts than vice-versa based on recent results, but I’m sticking with the Jumbos in a high-scoring affair. 

Picks: 
RM: Tufts 43, Colby 27
HC: Tufts 23, Colby 6
MK: Tufts 35, Colby 10
CC: Tufts 42, Colby 10
SS: Tufts 21, Colby 13

Writers’ Pick: Tufts

Trinity (4-3) @ Amherst (4-3), 1:00pm, Amherst, Massachusetts

It’s really quite odd to have both of these perennial powerhouses already eliminated from the NESCAC Championship race with two games remaining on the season, and they each suffered significant defeats this past weekend. For the Bantams, their three-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Ephs and its ferocious front seven, who constantly harassed quarterback Seamus Lambert ‘22 and bottled up running back Tijani Harris ‘22 (27 carries for 42 yards). Granted, Williams does boast the league’s best defense in terms of points allowed per game, but this is Trinity we’re talking about. With the talent that Trinity has, it’s simply a disappointment that the offense has looked so volatile, especially after exhibiting the capability to hang 60 points.

Amherst would, in theory, should present another tough challenge for the Bantams’ offense, but I’m not sure how much this team has left in the tank from an emotional standpoint. Of course they’ll be ready for next week’s rivalry game against the Ephs, but you have to think that their rather shocking loss to the Cardinals leaves them shaking their heads at what could have been. Although quarterback Ollie Eberth ‘20 turned the ball over twice in the first half, Amherst managed to find themselves leading the visitors 28-21 entering the fourth quarter. A Cardinals’ touchdown tied it with roughly twelve minutes remaining, and Eberth failed to gain a first down on his remaining possessions in regulation. In overtime, Henry Atkeson ‘20 had an opportunity to clinch the game with a 24 yard field goal after fellow kicker Mason Von Jess ‘23 nailed the right upright from 18 yards out, but the senior endured the same result. To make things worse, Eberth threw his third interception on the ensuing possession in double overtime, allowing the Cardinals to convert their own game-winning field goal. Amherst knows they shouldn’t have lost to Wesleyan, just like how they shouldn’t have lost to Hamilton or Middlebury. This team simply doesn’t know how to close out a game, and I’m more confident siding with the team who tends to respond after suffering defeat. 

Picks: 
RM: Trinity 27, Amherst 17
HC: Trinity 27, Amherst 26
MK: Trinity 38. Amherst 20
CC: Trinity 27, Amherst 21
SS: Amherst 31, Trinity 24

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Williams (6-1) @ Wesleyan (6-1), 1:00pm, Middletown, Connecticut

This is our game of the week, but the Cardinals showed some life in their come-from-behind victory against the Mammoths. Ashton Scott ‘22 is the real deal, and Matthew Simco ‘22 is a big playmaker that will give any defense problems; but this is the best defensive unit in the NESCAC, and their double-digit road victory against Trinity reaffirms my belief that this is the best and most complete team in the league. In a battle of one-loss foes, it’ll be Williams who dominates the time of possession and makes life hard on Scott. Ephs fans will be simultaneously praying that Hamilton can knock off Middlebury and keep the championship race open for one more week. 

Picks: 
RM: Williams 36, Wesleyan 20
HC: Williams 27, Wesleyan 13
MK: Williams 25, Wesleyan 16
CC: Williams 28, Wesleyan 14
SS: Williams 31, Wesleyan 21

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Bowdoin (0-7) @ Bates (0-7), 5:30pm, Lewiston, ME

Welcome to the 2019 Toilet Bowl featuring (for the second consecutive year) Bates and Bowdoin. All jokes aside, for the Bobcats, last week’s battle against the Mules gives me room for optimism heading into Saturday’s clash. Colby punched Bates in the mouth right from the get-go, racing out to a 23-0 lead. The Bobcats could have folded right then and there, but Jackson Hayes’ ‘22 47-yard touchdown reception as time expired gave the ‘Cats some momentum heading into the second half. For the remaining 30 minutes, Bates absolutely dominated the Mules on both sides of the ball. The defense stifled Colby’s offense to the tune of just 78 total second half yards, while Brendan Costa ‘21 and the offense nearly doubled that number. The special teams unit gave Celaya nightmares all second half, ignited by senior captain Jon Lindgren’s field goal block with 4:46 left in the third quarter.

The Bobcats were potentially one dropped pass away from forcing overtime, and while you have to account for the emotional toll the game had on the players, I see no reason why the ‘Cats won’t come out fired up for this game. Not only is it the last game for Bates in 2019, but the 5:30 pm kickoff will surely bring a large crowd ready to cheer their team to victory. In a similar scenario last season, Bowdoin embarrassed Bates 31-14 en route to their only win of 2018; you have to think for Bates, revenge is right at the forefront of their minds. It was only one game, but Costa looked much better against the Mules and should have success against a Polar Bears’ defense that is still allowing over 40 points and 465 yards per game. Emotions will be on full display during a physical first fifteen minutes, but I trust Bates’ offense to put up around 30 points on Bowdoin’s defense, a number Bowdoin’s offense hasn’t achieved in the score column all season. The Bobcats have lost 17 consecutive games, but that streak ends with an emphatic win this Saturday night. 

Picks:
RM: Bates 34, Bowdoin 17
HC: Bowdoin 24, Bates 17
MK: Bates 28, Bowdoin 14
CC: Bates 29, Bowdoin 17
SS: Bates 24, Bowdoin 17

Writers’ Pick: Bates

That’s All She Wrote: Stock Report 10/23

Stock Up

Middlebury winning the NESCAC Championship

Well, that about does it for the NESCAC Championship race after the Panthers pummeled the Cardinals last weekend by a tune of 45-21. Will Jernigan ‘21 surprised just about everyone with his success through the air, completing 18 of his 25 passing attempts for a career-high 359 yards and four scores. The defense harassed Ashton Scott ‘22 all afternoon and did not allow him to generate anything on the ground (12 rushes for -16 yards).   The win pushed Middlebury’s record to a perfect 6-0, and closed the magic number needed to secure the NESCAC Championship to just two games. Middlebury would have to trip up against both Hamilton and Tufts (sorry Bowdoin, I’m already penciling that contest as a win for the Panthers) in order to allow Williams and Wesleyan back into the picture. 

Hamilton and Kicker Sam Thoreen ‘22

For all the negativity surrounding NESCAC kickers for their lack of accuracy in recent weeks, major props to Hamilton’s Sam Thoreen. The sophomore nailed not one, but two field goals of 40+ yards. With his team trailing by eleven with roughly four minutes remaining, Thoreen sunk a 44 yarder, the longest kick converted by a NESCAC kicker all year long. More importantly, the kick made it a one possession game. After a wild series of events that allowed the Continentals the opportunity to win the game (more details to come below in the report), Thoreen kept his composure and banged home a 40 yarder en route to Hamilton’s biggest win of the season. He’s quietly been the most accurate kicker in the NESCAC (the only one who has not missed a single field goal) and is second in terms of total points. The Continentals’ gutsy come-from-behind win against Amherst was something sort of like Illinois’ upset of Wisconsin; a traditional power (on the road) failing to close the game against a bottom-tier league opponent. Both games also ended on a game-winning field goal…coincidence? I think not. 

Stock Down

Wesleyan and the Potential for Chaos

Like most people that follow NESCAC football, I would have loved to see Wesleyan knock off Middlebury. Even at 6-0, I still believe the Panthers are not the best team in the league and have been extremely fortuitous in some of their victories. In the overall picture, however, a win from the Cardinals would have blown the league wide open. I hate to say it, but Saturday’s performance showed everyone that the Cardinals were undefeated because of their weak schedule leading up to the showdown with the Panthers.

Hypothetically, let’s say Wesleyan was still undefeated after defeating Middlebury. For the Cardinals, they would most likely have had to win out in order to ensure a NESCAC Championship. But the more likely scenario stemming from an undefeated Wesleyan team would be that they suffer a loss (or two) to Williams, Trinity and/or Amherst; this would open the door for multiple teams to grapple for the top spot. Instead, the Cardinals are currently tied with the Ephs at one loss to the Panthers apiece, and both teams have to pray the Panthers trip up twice. For Amherst, their dream was crushed upon losing to Hamilton, and Trinity would need Middlebury to lose all three of their remaining games in order to have the smallest chance. Unfortunately it looks like the league championship is wrapped up.

Amherst

The likelihood of the Amherst winning the NESCAC Championship was slim after Middlebury’s victory, but the loss to Hamilton ended those hopes completely. The loss itself isn’t as strong of an indictment on this team as one would assume based on their respective records, but it was the manner in which Amherst failed to convert a single opportunity to close the game out. After holding Hamilton to a field goal that saw their lead get cut to eight with 3:59 remaining, Ollie Eberth ‘20 and the offense failed to accumulate a single first down and the Mammoths were forced to punt. The special teams unit failed to corral Continentals’ returner Sam Robinson ‘20, giving the home team great field position inside the Mammoths’ 25 yard line with 2:43 remaining. Twice the Mammoths forced a third down scenario during that drive, and twice the Continentals converted. After David Kagan’s three yard scamper, the offense stayed on the field in order to tie the game on a two point attempt; in the midst of a broken play, Kenny Gray ‘20 found Christian Donahoe ‘20 in the end zone, knotting the game at 28 apiece. One would think that a veteran quarterback would be able to lead his team down the field against what was (and still is) a below-average defensive unit. Instead, Eberth and the offense did not pass the sticks. To make matters worse, the special teams unit let down the team again, this time in the form of a blocked punt. All in all, it was a tough week for the Mammoths, and one that might have cost them a shot at a NESCAC Championship. 

All Eyes on the Championship Game?: Weekend Preview 10/19

We’ve officially surpassed the halfway point in the 2019 season, and yet unfortunately the league championship might come down to Middlebury and Wesleyan on Saturday. A Middlebury win will all but seal the deal in their quest to become NESCAC Champions, while Wesleyan still doesn’t believe it is getting the recognition it deserves for being the only other undefeated team in the conference. The rest of the slate features traditional powers facing inferior opponents, but taking those matchups for granted might eliminate some of the one-loss contenders who are praying for the Cardinals to upset the Panthers.

Bates (0-5) @ Williams (4-1), 1pm, Williamstown, MA

Fellow NbN writer Haven Cutko ripped apart the Bobcats in this week’s Power Rankings, and while you hate to hear your school being repeatedly badgered for its underwhelming performances on the gridiron, I absolutely agreed with him. It’s one thing to play competitive games and lose, but Bates was annihilated 51-0 by a Trinity team that by all accounts has been a massive disappointment this season. Without a doubt, Trinity could have scored 60+ given that they were already ahead 51-0 at the end of the fourth quarter. The offense is completely stagnant with no identity whatsoever; the ‘Cats are dead last in total offense (225 ypg) and feature a passing “attack” that is limited to quick slants and bubble screens. The running game hasn’t been terrible, but against the Bantams, the Bobcats had 26 rushing attempts for…28 yards. All this adds up to an offense that is averaging a touch over 10 ppg, and desperately needs someone to step up. The defense (allowing close to 35 ppg) is feast or famine; it either forces a turnover (5th in the ‘CAC with 8 combined turnovers) or gives up a touchdown. What’s worse is that the defensive line is last in sack production, which correlates to Bates having (by far) the worst pass defense because opposing quarterbacks have all day to throw. 

Bobby Maimaron ‘21 may not be the most prolific passer, but boy does he only need one man to throw to: Frank Stola ‘21. I mentioned a few weeks ago that Stola could very well break multiple single-season records with his performances to date, but the junior has a legitimate case to go down as the greatest wide receiver the league has ever witnessed. With four games remaining this season, Stola is 437 yards away from breaking the record of most receiving yards in a single season, and three touchdowns away from tying the single-season record. Given that he’s averaging 147 ypg and three touchdowns/game, the only thing that will stop Stola and company from wreaking havoc on the Bobcats’ poor secondary is when Coach Raymond pulls his starters midway through the third period with the game so out of hand. I really want to believe in Brendan Costa’s elusiveness and his ability to create something out of nothing, but he just doesn’t have the arm strength for the vertical passing game that I’m sure Coach Hall would love to have. Chalk up another 100+ yard performance for Stola with a couple of touchdowns as the Ephs come out firing from the get-go and cruise to an easy win. 

SS: Williams 42, Bates 7
HC: Williams 34, Bates 6
MK: Williams 35, Bates 0
CC: Williams 41, Bates 13
RM: Williams 42, Bates 7

Writers’ Pick: Williams 

Bowdoin (0-5) @ Tufts (2-3), 1pm, Medford, MA

The Polar Bears may be winless in large part to their atrocious defensive unit (other than their eye-opening performance against Wesleyan) but they’ve shown improvements in their running game. Specifically, Nate Richam-Odoi ‘20 registered his third consecutive 100-yard performance this past Saturday against Amherst; the senior is averaging 5.75 yards per carry over his past three contests, which is good news considering Bowdoin will need their star running back to perform exceptionally against Tufts if they want to spring the upset. The problem with this is that along with the defense, the quarterback position is an absolute mess in Brunswick. After a brutal 2018 season in which he threw just eight touchdowns and 17 interceptions, Austin McCrum ‘21 has shown very little (if any) signs of improvement. He’s only registered two passing touchdowns through their first four games, and after failing to generate any points in the opening quarter against Amherst, McCrum was benched in lue of fellow junior Matthew Marcantano ‘21. Marcantano was not afraid to air it out, but he was careless with the football (two INT’s) and completed just 11 of his 27 passing attempts. 

Whoever Coach Hammer rolls out to start on Saturday will face a Tufts team that is coming off an emotional loss against Wesleyan. Behind a fired-up defense that continuously frustrated Ashton Scott ‘22 and the Cardinals’ offense, the Jumbos took a 10-7 into the fourth quarter. The Cardinals simply had more left in the tank, scoring on three of their four possessions and capped off by a six yard touchdown with six seconds left on the game clock. As valiant of a performance the Jumbos displayed this past Saturday, this is a prime letdown spot for about as inconsistent of a team as there is in the NESCAC this season. They’ve yet to have a game in which both the offense and defense play a complete 60 minutes; against the likes of Trinity and Wesleyan, the Jumbos defense swarmed all over the field, and yet the offense was stuck in the mud. Against Bates, the offense roared out to a sizeable lead, but the defense almost allowed Bates to come from behind and steal a win. Luckily for Tufts, they won’t need a complete performance to beat Bowdoin, but don’t be surprised if this game is closer than the experts think. 

SS: Tufts 28, Bowdoin 13
HC: Tufts 24, Bowdoin 14
MK: Tufts 30, Bowdoin 14
CC: Tufts 34, Bowdoin 14
RM: Tufts 34, Bowdoin 21

Writers’ Pick: Tufts

Colby (0-5) @ Trinity (3-2), 1pm, Hartford, CT

There’s no way to sugarcoat it; Colby should have absolutely beaten Middlebury. It was by far the worst performance the Panthers exhibited all season and it was almost as if they were basically handing the Mules the game, except the Mainers didn’t want it. I’m sure kicker Moises Celaya ‘22 was up all night thinking about how two missed extra points and a missed 32 yard field goal with 22 seconds left cost the Mules their upset bid. Nonetheless, Colby showed improvements on both sides of the ball; signal caller Matt Hersch ‘22 did not have the greatest completion percentage, but he was able to toss a season-high three touchdowns with no interceptions against a very strong secondary. The defense, while allowing Will Jernigan ‘21 to run for 153 yards and three scores of his own, made life miserable in the passing department. Jernigan was held to just 12 completions on 30 attempts, good for a paltry 40%. 

The Bantams marched into Lewiston and put an absolutely whooping on the Bobcats. Seamus Lambert ‘22 tossed for four scores to add to his league-leading 13 touchdown passes, and emerging running back Tijani Harris ‘22 ran for 139 yards and a score of his own. Despite playing in only two games, Harris has surpassed the century mark in both contests and must be viewed as a legitimate weapon on this team. The defense pitched a shutout, although I am more inclined to think that the final score says more about the lack of Bates offense rather than the dominance of the Trinity defense. They did force two turnovers, which was as many as the unit had in their previous four games combined; however, they failed to generate any pressure on the Bates quarterbacks, totaling zero sacks. Given that Trinity has defeated Bates and Bowdoin by a combined score of 112-7, I don’t think the Mules will fair much better come Saturday. I think Trinity keeps the train rolling en route to their third consecutive win, while the Mules continue to lament on what could have been if they had taken down the Panthers last weekend. 

SS: Trinity 38, Colby 14
HC: Trinity 45, Colby 14
MK: Trinity 56, Colby 10
CC: Trinity 42, Colby 7
RM: Trinity 48, Colby 10

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Amherst (4-1) @ Hamilton (2-3), 1pm, Hamilton, NY

Despite being out-snapped 75-55 by the Polar Bears, the Mammoths glided to a comfortable 36-14 win that saw their defense keep the opposition off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter. Manni Malone ‘22 was impossible to defend, totaling four quarterback hits and a strip sack that resulted in his first touchdown on the season. All in all, Amherst had nine quarterback hits, and the relentless pressure that the front seven brings will force quarterbacks to become jittery in the pocket and lead to errant throws. Ollie Eberth ‘20 had a great performance, completing 71% of his passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Not to get lost in the shuffle of great wide receivers, James O’Regan ‘20 is quietly sitting second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. He’ll be ready to torch a secondary that just last week allowed Frank Stola to abuse them all afternoon. 

For the Continentals, their success is predicated on their offensive production. In their two wins against Colby and Bowdoin, Hamilton combined for 82 points; even in their loss to Trinity, they scored a respectable 24 points and gave their defense a chance to win. In their two losses, however, Kenny Gray ‘20 and the rest of the unit failed to eclipse 10 points, and the aforementioned quarterback had four combined interceptions. What’s more is that Amherst has the third-best run defense in the ‘CAC, which means tough sledding out there for David Kagan ‘20. If the Continentals wish to defeat the Mammoths, their defense will have to make this a grind and keep them out of the end zone. I actually think this one will be close, as Amherst doesn’t boast a prolific offense nor is it explosive. In the end, however, Amherst’s season is essentially over with a loss, and they still have hope that Wesleyan can usurp Middlebury and make the title race a bit more wide open. The Mammoths sneak out a win, and although both offenses will struggle early, O’Regan will prove to be the difference maker. 

SS: Amherst 28, Hamilton 17
HC: Amherst 31, Hamilton 17
MK: Amherst 28, Hamilton 10
CC: Amherst 31, Hamilton 20
RM: Amherst 27, Hamilton 21

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Wesleyan @ Middlebury, 1pm, Middlebury, VT

This is our game of the week so I’ll keep it short. Everyone knows that if Middlebury beats Wesleyan on Saturday, the Championship is basically theirs. With remaining games against Bowdoin, Hamilton and Tufts, Middlebury would have to lose two of those three in order to fall out of the top spot. Wesleyan knows that the road ahead is extremely tough even if they end up beating Midd, but a win would shake up the entire conference, something that all of us (including me) wants to see. I really want to take the Cardinals, but after struggling with Jumbos I just don’t think they have the talent to compete for 60 minutes with the upper echelon NESCAC schools. Combined with the wake up call the Panthers received in their scare against Colby, I feel like it’s more likely the home team makes a statement Saturday afternoon. If the Cardinals do pull off the shocker, however, it will be because their defense stymies the Panthers’ ground game and forces Jernigan to throw the ball way more than he would like to. 

SS: Middlebury 28, Wesleyan 21
HC: Middlebury 21, Wesleyan 17
MK: Middlebury 24, Wesleyan 17
CC: Middlebury 27, Wesleyan 24
RM: Middlebury 27, Wesleyan 13

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

The Preseason is Over: Wesleyan vs. Tufts Game of the Week Preview

This week’s Game of the Week coverage features the Wesleyan Cardinals hosting the Tufts Jumbos in what is sure to be a season-defining matchup for both teams. For Wesleyan, their perfect 4-0 start to the season is taken with a grain of salt considering their victories have been against the likes of Hamilton, Colby, Bates and Bowdoin. It doesn’t help that the latter of the bunch was tied with the Cardinals until 3:52 remaining in the fourth quarter in what would have been the biggest upset of the season to date. Defeating Tufts would not be the loudest statement we’ve seen, but it would surely qualify as a step up in competition. For the Jumbos, last week’s 33-28 scare against the Bobcats exhibited (once again) some glaring concerns for a team that some thought of as a conference championship contender after their upset of Trinity. A win on the road against Wesleyan would help rejuvenate this squad and maybe spark a run in the latter remaining weeks. 

Key #1 for Tufts: Start Fast 

In its four games of the season, the Jumbos have scored a total of 25 points in the first half.  Another first half performance that features single digit points will most certainly not cut it against a Wesleyan offense that’s averaging over 30 ppg. In order to set the stage for an upset, it is vital that Jacob Carroll ‘20 and company come out firing and put pressure on the Cardinals defense to make plays. Up until Saturday’s matchup with Bowdoin, Wesleyan had not trailed in 2019; once the Polar Bears took a 7-0 lead, the atmosphere changed and the Cardinals (at times) seemed to tighten up. Carroll has some really dynamic weapons at his disposal, most notably OJ Armstrong ‘21 (29 receptions for 232 yards and a TD) and Brendan Dolan ‘21 (12 receptions for 215 yards and two TD’s). The senior quarterback has to find a way to get his playmakers the ball and quickly, or else Coach Civetti could pull the string and go with true freshman Trevon Woodson ‘23.   

Key #2 for Tufts: Contain Ashton Scott

This one is a real simple concept, and yet this Jumbos’ defense has had an extremely hard time containing dual-threat quarterbacks as of late. Last week, Bates quarterback Brendan Costa ‘21 came on in the second quarter and gave Tufts fits, throwing for 200 yards and rushing for another 62 on just eight carries. Costa played well, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the junior had never passed for more than 200 yards in a single game in his career until Saturday. The fact that he did so in three quarters…is alarming to say the least. The defense we saw on opening day against Trinity is long gone, and since that 14-8 victory, Tufts is allowing close to 33 and 408 yards per game. Along with Costa, Bobby Maimaron ‘21 and Ollie Eberth ‘20 have combined to rush for 73 yards per game against Tufts, and each of those quarterbacks averaged at least 5.6 yards per carry. Given the fact that Scott leads the Cardinals in rushing attempts, the defense should expect a similar offensive scheme coming their way. 

Key #1 for Wesleyan: Let Scott Loose

With four games under his belt as a starting quarterback in the ‘CAC, Scott gets his first crack at a team that isn’t one of the historical bottom dwellers. While not the football juggernaut we thought this Jumbos team could become after upsetting the Bantams, they have more than enough talent to frustrate the Cardinals and pull off the upset. While the defense hasn’t been spectacular as of late, Tufts has the capability to shut down the run game and force teams to beat them through the air. I believe Coach DiCenzo will allow Scott the opportunity to throw the ball the more after being ultra conservative early on in the season. Other than Williams, no other team has attempted fewer than 100 passes, and you have to consider that because Williams ran out to essentially insurmountable leads against Bowdoin and Tufts, they had the luxury of just running out the clock in the second half.  Scott only attempted 16 passes last week against Bowdoin despite completing 11 of those attempts, and you would have to think Tufts knows that Wesleyan relies heavily on their ground game; I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scott attempt 30+ passes, but in a manner that allows the underclassman to get the ball out quickly and efficiently. 

Key #2 for Wesleyan: Give Scott a #2 Target

If Scott is going to throw the ball more than usual on Saturday, then someone from this young  wide receiver department needs to step up. Matthew Simco ‘22 (14 receptions for 225 yards and two scores) is one of many big play threats on this Cardinals’ offense, but none of the remaining pass catchers have registered double digit receptions. Dario Highsmith ‘20 showed some life and caught two passes for 42 yards and a touchdown last week against Bowdoin, so maybe the only senior out of wide receiver group can build off last week’s successful showing; however, the fact remains that backup running back Charlie McPhee ‘22 is the team’s third leading receiver with a paltry six receptions. Expect offensive coordinator Eric Ludwig to throw the kitchen sink at Tufts, utilizing various routes to get his wide receivers open and instill some confidence in a group that Scott needs to be at their best on Saturday. 

Everything Else:

I think Saturday’s near epic collapse against the Bobcats sent a message to the Jumbos in the sense that this team is not strong enough as a collective unit to just waltz in against a conference opponent and play ok football en route to a win. It was a wake up call for sure, and I reckon this week of practice was geared towards getting the team refocused and ready to roll. I  fully expect Tufts to come out to stack the box and force Scott to beat them with his arm, keeping this game close. When it’s all said and done, however, I just don’t think the Jumbos have enough offense to knock off the Cardinals. With all the focus on running backs Glenn Smith ‘21 and David Estevez ‘22 as well as Scott’s running ability, I believe Wesleyan will come out aggressively in the passing game and jump out to a lead early. They were clearly overlooking Bowdoin last week, and they’ll have their heads on straight in this one. Scott throws for a score while adding another on the ground, and the Cardinals wear down the Jumbos en route to a 5-0 start to the season.

Prediction: Wesleyan 27, Tufts 16