Game of the Week Preview 2/8
We’ve got a battle of big guns to open the final (and biggest) weekend of NESCAC basketball this season, as the Hamilton Continentals look to knock off the high-flying Middlebury Panthers. With so much chaos surrounding the top five seeds, this game will be sure to provide some clarity into the situation. Middlebury currently occupies the number one spot in the standings due to their head-to-head win against Williams combined with have one more win than both Amherst and Hamilton (with one more game being played). The Continentals are in fourth, but a win on Friday would potentially vault them into the top two with games against Williams and Amherst remaining on the schedule. If you like offense, this is the game for you: both teams are top two in PPG and top four in FG% (I said this last week and Colby put up a dud in the second half, but second time’s the charm or something like that); at the same time, both teams rank top three in terms of defensive PPG and defensive 3PFG%, so something has to give here. With so much on the line for both teams, I expect the stars to come out and shine on the hardwood Friday night, and the result of this game will certainly be a fantastic segway into Saturday’s slate of conference games.
Overview
Middlebury looked a bit shaky for the better part of the first 25 minutes of Saturday’s game against Colby, but the defense stymied Colby’s offensive weapons in the last 15 minutes and Jack Farrell ‘21 and Matt Fogler ‘20 hit some big shots as the Panthers eventually pulled away to secure a 81-68 victory. The defensive intensity the Panthers have recently displayed is quite an impressive turnaround from earlier this season, as they’ve allowed just under 56 PPG in their last four NESCAC matchups. Middlebury was able to hold Bowdoin’s David Reynolds ‘20 to a season-low seven points on 3-14 shooting, and then limited Colby’s Sam Jefferson ‘20 to 16 points on 2-11 shooting from beyond the arc; the ability to contain the opposing team’s star player will be key on Friday as Hamilton not only boasts the best offensive unit in the ‘CAC, but arguably the front-runner for NESCAC POY in guard Kena Gilmour ‘20. The recent emergence of big man Eric McCord ‘19 only complicates matters for Hamilton’s defense, as they now have to worry about an inside presence on top of the Panther’s plethora of shooters. Farrell, Fogler, and Max Bosco ‘21, are all prolific scorers, and Midd gets plenty of help on the bench from guys like Griffin Kornaker ‘21 (8.4 PPG, 3.1 AST/G in conference play). This unit is on a roll on both sides of the floor and the Panthers will be ready come Friday to protect home court.
The Continentals needed a big bounce-back weekend after flopping against Colby two Saturdays ago, and they did so with wins against Bates and Tufts. Against the Bobcats, Hamilton was led by (you guessed it) Kena Gilmour with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. Peter Hoffmann ‘19 played exceptionally well, chipping in with 22 points and 10 rebounds, and Michael Grassey ‘19 capped The Big 3’s performance with 17 points and 11 rebounds of his own. The Continentals knocked down 16 triples and held Bates to just 25.9% from downtown combined with forcing 18 turnovers. The Tufts game was a slightly different story, as Hamilton was down 1 with 53 seconds left before Grassey’s layup gave the Continentals the lead with 32 seconds to play. Hamilton held off the upset-minded Jumbos despite Gilmour’s uncharacteristic poor performance (4 points, 2-10 shooting), as Hoffmann scored 22 and the bench players combined for a rather impressive 31 points. Hamilton’s defense has been rather pedestrian as of late, allowing over 81 PPG. Against Middlebury’s high-scoring unit, the Continentals will need to clamp down and run Midd’s shooters off the three point line, because the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with the league’s best 3-point shooting teams.
Middlebury X – Factor
Eric McCord ‘19
Guys like Farrell, Bosco, and Folger are the sexy choices, but I’m opting for the big bruiser down low. On a team full of snipers, McCord is that big body center who crashes the boards and does the dirty work inside. He’s averaging a career-high 9.2 PPG to go along with 10.2 REB/G and was a monumental part of the Panthers’ last two conference wins. Against Bowdoin, McCord registered his 8th double-double of the season, chipping in 10 points to go along with 11 rebounds. The following day, the senior scored a team-high 19 points and went 8-10 from the field in Middlebury’s road win against upset-minded Colby. McCord will have his hands full dealing with Hamilton big man Andrew Knoll ‘19, but if he can replicate his performances from this past weekend, the Panthers will have a good chance to knock off Hamilton.
Hamilton X – Factor
Peter Hoffmann ‘19
Hoffmann has had a relatively disappointing senior campaign as he’s averaging a career low 12.1 PPG. His play was subpar in Hamilton’s two conference losses, as Hoffmann finished with a mere 8 points in each of the Continentals’ defeats to Wesleyan and Colby; however, the 6’6’’ G/F has shown flashes of brilliance during his past two games against Bates and Tufts, scoring a combined 43 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. His 22 point performance at Tufts was instrumental in the Continentals’ victory and kept them in the hunt for the #1 overall seed come postseason tournament time. I cannot underestimate the need for a guy like Hoffmann to have a large impact against the Panthers, and I think he’ll continue his recent success into this matchup of titans.
Final Thoughts
I’ve gone back and forth with my decision like a college football recruit before signing day (only I’m not being offered thousands of dollars of cash to make the choice) and I can’t say I’m 100% committed to one side. I will say that I don’t think home court matters a whole bunch in this league; we’ve seen plenty of teams upset at home this season, including Williams at the hands of Middlebury, Colby beating both Hamilton and Amherst, Bowdoin beating Williams, Trinity beating Wesleyan, etc. Both teams possess dynamic offenses and solid defenses capable of getting stops at the right moments. Despite Hamilton’s 19-2 record, they haven’t played a NESCAC team situated in current the top 5 with the exception of Wesleyan, whereas Middlebury has the advantage of already playing Williams on top of Wesleyan. Hamilton’s loss to Colby, coupled with close calls against Trinity and Tufts, is an indicator that this team isn’t quite as dominant as I thought they would be at the start of this season. Or maybe, it’s just a case of a team playing down to its competition. Despite all of this, I’m going to side with the Continentals and Kena Gilmour. I believe Gilmour, who should be hungry to cement his status as the league’s best player after laying an egg against Tufts, will take over this game. I expect help from the likes of Grassey, Hoffmann, and McCord, but Gilmour will be the catalyst that wills the Continentals to a massive road win and knocks Middlebury off the throne.
Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 78 – Middlebury 74