Lots of Confusion: Power Rankings 4/22

Power Rankings 4/22

It’s hard to believe it’s the last full week of April and we’re just now getting our first Power Rankings of the 2019 NESCAC baseball season, but the last time I checked this is, in fact, an outdoor sport, and these games are, in fact, contested outdoors, in the Northeast. To be perfectly honest with you, we probably shouldn’t even have a Power Rankings yet. Three teams have played 6 league games, three teams have played 7, three teams have played 9, and one team has played 10. Yes, every team has played in the ballpark of 25 overall games, but how much can you really factor in those midweek games when every single coach in the NESCAC is saving his top wings for the league series’ over the weekend? Regardless, I’m not an excuses guy. I have been selected as the man for this task, and it will be accomplished with minimal cop outs and excuses. Let’s get weird.

1. Tufts (21-5, 6-1)

The holder of the best league winning percentage, the team at the top of a healthy amount of both offensive and defensive statistical categories, and the team that most comfortably passes the eye test. Tufts at this moment is the best team in the league. If they didn’t get rained out in Maine this past weekend they probably would’ve taken two more off of Colby, which would have pushed them to very strong 8-1 league record and put them in the pole position for the 1 seed in the NESCAC East. All year the Jumbos have shown an incredible amount of balance and depth all over the field—up and down the order, and up and down the bullpen. Their lineup card includes a staggering 7 of the top 21 batting averages in the league, and that doesn’t include OF Casey Santos-Ocampo ’19 who is slashing a measly .308/.458/.516, hitting 4 HRs and tacking on 21 RBIs. Heading up the rotation is RHP R.J. Hall ’19, leading the league with a 1.55 ERA. Prettay, prettay, good.

2. Trinity (24-5, 7-2)

Trinity and Tufts could probably be 1A and 1B, but as I previously indicated, I’m somewhat giving Tufts the tiebreaker because I think the rain prevented them from sweeping Colby and giving them the clear best record in the league. Luckily these teams haven’t played each other yet, and there is a really, really, good chance that the divisional crown comes directly down to their head-to-head series. Regardless, these two teams are currently head and shoulders above everybody else. Trinity has the best overall record in the league at 24-5, and for good measure they’re undefeated (3-0) against the NESCAC West. The Bantams haven’t gotten to this spot with the same top to bottom firepower as Tufts, but OF Matt Koperniak ’20 (.373, 4 HR, 22 RBI) has as good of a chance as anyone to win Player of the Year, and RHP Andrew DeRoche ’20 (38.1 IP, 5-1, 2.11 ERA) has just as good of a chance to win Pitcher of the Year. The Bantams are tied for the league lead in fielding percentage (.969%), and as always (although Middlebury is really trying to emulate them this year) no one runs the bases better than Trinity—104 stolen bases, twice as many as every team but one (Midd).

3. Middlebury (17-8, 3-3)

This is where things start to get a little spicy. Yes, Middlebury is technically tied for 2nd in the division, and you would certainly like for their 3-3 divisional record to not solely consist of games against Williams and Hamilton—not exactly recent league juggernauts. Yes, I prefaced these rankings with the fact that you really can’t judge these teams too heavily on non-league results. But who am I supposed to put over them? Amherst? Wesleyan? The only choice for the third spot realistically is the Middlebury Panthers. Their 17-8 record is the third best in the league behind the two teams ranked above them, and they’re the only team in the league to have
scored more than 200 runs and allowed less than 100. They have the third best overall batting average (.308) and the best team ERA by a pretty wide margin (3.07). And while I just extolled Trinity’s baserunning, something that has been a pillar of their program in recent memory, Middlebury has actually been the best in the league at swiping bases, 103-117, a whopping .880 stolen base percentage. This is a really solid team and while you’d obviously like them to have a better league record against the presumed bottom dwellers in the division, I think they’re going to show up and take both series from Amherst and Wesleyan. They’re 3-3 but they have a run differential of +18 in those games. If they either learn how to close out games or maybe if the ball just bounces their way a little more often, they’ll be fine.

4. Amherst (14-11, 5-4)

You can classify the next four teams under the “Meh” category. Yeah, they’ve had decent results and are all firmly in the hunt for the postseason, but would you really place any serious trust in them in a must win game? Regardless, I think Amherst is the best of these 4 teams, so this is where they end up. It’s been a weird year for the defending champs who I think are just yet to play to their potential. They’re 7th in batting average (.293) and 5th in team ERA (4.31), but we know the talent is there, and it’s a testament to them that they still lead the division despite their average stats. Am I talking myself out of this pick? Maybe.

5. Bates (13-12, 4-3)

For whatever it’s worth, I absolutely hate this pick. The Power Rankings are for sure supposed to be the ranking of the teams and not necessarily a forecast of their season outlook, but it is so hard to look at this Bates team and get past the fact that they somehow went 3-3 combined against the two best teams in the league, sit at 4-3, and have 5 divisional games left against Bowdoin and Colby. If they go 4-1 in those games and Tufts takes 2 out of 3 against Trinity, Bates will somehow have snuck into the playoffs over Trinity for the second consecutive year, taking the head-to-head tiebreaker at 8-4. Despite mediocre stats across the board (2nd worst offense in the league, 6 th in team ERA), the Bobcats continue to find ways to win games. They also have a legit no. 1 pitcher in Nolan Collins ’20, who leads the league in innings pitched with 47.0 and is 6th in the league with a 2.87 ERA. He also leads all starters with a 8.43 K/9—he’s not just getting lucky and pitching to contact, he has legit punchout stuff. This ranking could look really shortsighted in two weeks, but for now it’s where I feel comfortable.

6. Williams (17-7, 3-3)

It has been a really bizarre year for the Ephs. They jumped out to an awesome 12-1 start on the back of some insane come from behind wins, and while they’ve cooled off since, they’ve shown that it wasn’t exactly a fluke—most noticeably in their series win over Middlebury. To start with the positives, the two best hitters in the league both wear purple and gold this year in IF Doug Schaffer ’19 (.478, 41 RBI), and OF Erik Pappas ‘21 (.457). Personally, anytime you have two guys at the top of your order that have essentially a 50/50 chance of getting a hit, I think that is a good thing. Additionally, Williams has solved a lot of their pitching woes that plagued them for all of last year—their 4.27 ERA is 3 rd in the NESCAC, and they did much of this winning with star SS Kellen Hatheway ’19 on the disabled list, having only recently returned from injury and playing in just 14 games, but hitting .404 with 2 HR and 11 RBI in those 14 games. But I’m still not sold. The pitching numbers have been as good as they have been because their rotation has done a really good job of avoiding the bad start, allowing them to compete in every game. LHP John Lamont ’20 (19.1 IP in 5 starts, 1-2, 4.19 ERA) is yet to look like himself following Tommy John surgery, and the rest of the rotation has yet to show they have top of the line ability that can win them really big NESCAC games.

7. Wesleyan (12-13, 3-3)

It feels weird to say that the Cardinals are the 7th best team in the league but you are what your record says you are and the boys from Middletown are a sub .500 ball club right now. The pitching staff that we continue to go on and on about from a talent and consistency standpoint just refuses to show up. RHP Pat Clare ’19 has been nails out of the bullpen (7.09 K/9, 2.02 ERA), but he’s not a starter. It’s been the same song and dance with LHP Kelvin Sosa ’21, whose 7.50 K/9 would jump off the page a lot more if it wasn’t for the 25 BB that lead the league. We’ve seen the talent, we know the strikeout ability, but it just hasn’t been there on a start to start basis, and with Middlebury on the schedule next, it’s quickly turning into do or die time for Wesleyan.

8. Hamilton (14-14, 4-5)

Hamilton has definitely impressed a lot of people this year, myself included. It looks like they’re probably going to come up a little short of making the playoffs—they definitely need to sweep Williams (unlikely) to get to 7-5 and have some things bounce their way, but to even be able to write that sentence is a testament to the jump they’ve taken up. RHP Gavin Schaefer-Hood ’21 (43.0 IP, 6-1, 2.72 ERA) is a legit ace in this league and while reigning Rookie of the Year IF Matt Zaffino ’21 (.301, 14 RBI) hasn’t taken the jump up yet, they clearly still have the talent. OF Ethan Wallis ’21 (.372 AVG, 1 HR, 16 RBI) also adds to what appears to be a very talented Continental senior class.

9. Bowdoin (5-19-1, 3-7)

I went back and forth on these last two a lot, probably more than I should have. But ultimately despite being 5-19-1, Bowdoin did sweep Colby so it’s pretty hard not to slide them above. The issue has been a lot of things for Bowdoin this year, but it all starts with the offense, which ranks last in both average (.230) and runs scored (94). Yes, the ERA is also dead last at 6.61 but the offense has just shown no signs of life at all that it’s tough to have faith either way. They swept Colby on the backs of uber talented two-way players Brandon Lopez ’19 and Jack Wilhoite ’19, both of whom are quite good and would have been fun to see utilized in some marquee NESCAC matchups, but it just wasn’t to be.

10. Colby (9-13, 0-7)

Everything was going great for Colby this year until it wasn’t. They came back from spring break at 6-1 and promptly lost 11 games in a row, including 3 to previously winless Bowdoin. Despite all of this they actually still have a positive run differential of +2, a testament to the baseball they were playing before they returned home. They’re clearly just a warm weather team, no shame in that. It kind of reminds me of my 11 year old year of Williamsport. We lost 4 games by 1 run, lost one game by like 8, and then mercy ruled a team in our last game. We finished 1-5 with a run differential of +1. What could have been.