This weekend of NESCAC baseball has a lot in store for us. The East division will be settled this weekend – Tufts and Trinity face off in Hartford to help determine if Bates still has a shot at the postseason, while the Bobcats will battle to stave off elimination. The West is still wide open. Every team is still in it. Wes will play Midd in a big series this weekend. Williams will play Hamilton, too. There’s a lot still up in the air, which makes it an exciting weekend of baseball. Given these conditions, I believe there are a few undervalued and overvalued teams and players. Here’s my stock report for 4/26.
Long: John Casey
Warren Buffett has always been into value investments. He would invest in companies like Coca Cola and Geico early on because he believed these were quality, undervalued blue chip companies that would outperform expectations. It’s easy to jump on an equity when it has already shown immense growth, but hard to invest when it has hit rock bottom, and every investor says it will always go down. Well, I want to long Coach John Casey of Tufts. If I were Buffett, I would’ve invested in Casey in the early ‘90’s before his reign of terror on the NESCAC. I believe that Tufts, directly based off of the way they’re playing now, will continue to grow and dominate. Walking around their facility, I can see why they win so much: their culture is different. Baseball isn’t really just a sport for them. It’s not academics 1, baseball 2 at Tufts. It’s academics 1 and baseball 1. It’s almost like they’re running a D1 program among the NESCACs. Casey has implemented a system that produces game changing players like Ed Bernstein (check out his senior ERA) and Malcolm Nachmanoff just to name a few. These guys dominate the game, and make baseball really fun to watch. Tufts is playing Trin this weekend, which will be a good preview of a playoff series for sure. I have full faith that Casey will find a way to get it done. Trinity is talented, but Tufts has been there and done that multiple times. Trinity hasn’t been on the big stage as much. Let’s see who comes out on top.
Short: Wesleyan
It pains me to say this because Wesleyan is my team; however, I must stay impartial and follow my fundamental analysis. Middlebury will win the series against West this weekend. I am not saying this because I believe Wes is weak. The Cardinals still boast a powerful lineup with Danny Rose ’19, Andrew Keith ’19, and Andrew Kauf ’20. Leadoff man Alex Capitelli ’20 is hitting below .300 this year, which makes it seem like the world is blowing up. Capitelli is one of the most consistent players in the league. The man is still playing solid baseball, but not quite up to par with his season last year. My problem with Wes isn’t necessarily their lineup (albeit they miss a guy like Matt Jeye dearly in the middle). The Cardinals pitching has been pretty brutal this year. Forget about starting pitching for a second, Wesleyan’s main problem from last year was finding a guy to share the burden of a late inning with Pat Clare ’19. Clare is great for one or two innings. Like any reliever, he gets figured out when he stays later in games. I don’t think Coach Woodworth has found that really reliable number two reliever yet, which is crucial in the late innings further on in the season. The starting pitching has been mediocre as well. Sosa and McCaffrey don’t look the same as last year. Sosa’s funky delivery and solid repertoire of pitches still makes him a force. I am not entirely sure what’s going on with Mike McCaffrey ’19. He hasn’t pitched nearly as well as last season. Wesleyan’s talent has to be up there with any NESCAC team, but I feel like it’s not being utilized to its full potential yet. This weekend against Midd is really make or break for the Cardinals. I had high hopes coming into the season for Joe Mescall ’21 and David Redfield ’21, who are two quality relievers. Redfield had an unbelievable summer season, and Mescall has brought his usual swagger to the mound. These are two guys who I believe, if utilized correctly, will help the pen enormously. Redfield has been sidelined by injury, so his health has a direct effect on Wesleyan’s season. Going on the road to Midd won’t be easy. If the Cardinals can string together at least two wins, I see them having a playoff shot. Pitching may hamper them, though.