Trinity vs. Salve Regina; Friday, May 17, 2:30 PM @ DiBenedetto Field
Trinity somehow (via a great strength of schedule and many impressive non-conference wins) snuck into the NCAA tournament after missing the NESCAC tournament which is unusual. They showed this year that they are certainly capable of facing NCAA caliber teams and winning, shown by an extensive 10+ wins against regionally ranked opponents. They aren’t overly impressive in any statistical category other than stolen bases where their total of 129 is second to just Middlebury in the NESCAC who led the nation in 2019. A .291 team average is pretty middle of the pack as is their 3.99 team ERA. It’s not overly surprising that Trinity finished with such a good record given these metrics, but how did they beat so many good teams since nothing really stands out?
How they got here:
Trinity’s 10-5 record against regionally ranked opponents and #44 strength of schedule nationally led to their #4 ranking in the New England region granting them an at-large berth. With this regional ranking, there were a definite lock to get this bid, so it came as no surprise when they got the call this Monday. Their most impressive wins this year were against Southern Maine and Wheaton (MA) so let’s take a look at the winning formula from those contests that the Bantams will need this weekend. Andrew DeRoche ’20 took the ball against the Southern Maine Huskies, throwing 3.1 innings and was relieved by Erik Mohl ’19 who tossed the next 3.2 innings. It’s clear that Johnny Stamatis ’19 and Matt Koperniak ’20 are the key catalysts for this lineup as they swipe tons of bags, have power, and hit for average. Stamatis had 2 RBI against the Huskies and Koperniak added an RBI against Wheaton. Cameron Crowley ’22 threw against Wheaton, tossing 5.2 innings of three-run ball and Mohl collected the save. The Bantams also won 7-3 and 9-1 against Salve during the season and what was the common denominator? Erik Mohl. While Andrew DeRoche started in one of those games, Mohl relieved in both and has shown that he is an innings eater.
What’s Next:
Mohl must continue to have such a versatile and consistent role for the Bantams for them to continue in the playoffs. Mohl’s ability to reliably eat innings, bridging the starting pitchers to the back of the bullpen is crucial and the diversifying factor for the Bantam team. While they swipe bags and have a few real weapons in their lineup, every single other team in the NCAA tournament does too. The Trinity lineup is nothing special. However, coupled with sufficient starting pitching depth is the NESCAC’s version of Andrew Miller in Mohl who, after being Nothing But NESCAC’s 2018 preseason East Pitcher of the Year, had a tough 2018 season, but is really bouncing back in 2019. The lefty has thrown 45 innings in 21 appearances in the 2019 season. 21 appearances is absurd. Don’t be surprised to see Mohl throw in every single game this weekend. Pairing the lefty Mohl with Crowley, DeRoche, Jimmy Fahey ’22, and Will Simeone ’22, the Bantams will showcase an unusually deep pitching arsenal that makes them competitive in every game they play.
Salve Regina Seahawks:
Salve Regina earned the CCC tournament’s automatic bid after winning the last 2/3 games in their championship series against Roger Williams. They like to run a little bit (66 steals) and have more pop than Trinity with Sr. OF Zack Smith ’19 leading the team with 9 round-trippers. Their team average of .297 is respectable and extremely comparable to Trinity’s profile as the Seahawks have the #49 D3 strength of schedule per d3baseball.com’s metrics. They also bolster a strong starting rotation with three arms with 40+ innings while two of them, Michael Matthews ’21 and Patrick Mayback ’20, have over 13 K/9. For reference, not a single NESCAC starting pitcher with over 40 innings had over a 9 K/9. Where they falter is in their bullpen as they do not have any primary relievers with under a 4.8 ERA. What’s likely to happen is that some of their midweek starters (Tom Beliveau ’20 and Michael Viveiros ’21) will be converted to relievers for the weekend of games. And while Trinity is 2-0 on the season series against the Seahawks, one of those games was on a Tuesday which essentially nixes that contest from comparison for the postseason since the starting pitchers are not close to what we will see today and the second game was ‘staffed’ by Salve, meaning they did not throw a starter for more than two innings.
Matchup Preview:
Will Ginsberg ’19 vs Andrew DeRoche ’20
Salve should not start Ginsberg in this game, but I’d bet that they do anyways. Coaches always put their seniors on the mound in game one for their experience, competitiveness, etc, but this is a safe and ill-sited decision in this case. Ginsberg leads the team in innings but has allowed 71 hits in 67 innings and struck out just 52 (6.95 K/9). They should throw Patrick Mayback but their second option should be Michael Matthews due to their swing and miss arsenals.
For the Bantams, DeRoche is likely to start despite Crowley’s All-NESCAC selection and 8-0 record. Crowley’s record is deceiving as are all win-loss records as he has had unsustainable success levels (24 walks and 24 K’s in 51 innings is a bad FIP…) whereas DeRoche has been a mainstay all season and has been extremely consistent going deep into outings. Crowley, albeit, has been dominant of late, closing the year off with 26 innings of two-run baseball, but I’d still go with DeRoche in game one and save Crowley for game two of the weekend and try to jump into the championship game.
I don’t think this will be a heavy offensive affair, however, Trinity will scrap their way to several runs. Barring a power surge from Salve, Trinity’s experience this season and track record winning close games should give them a surefire edge to open the weekend.
Prediction: Trinity 5, Salve Regina 3