The Middlebury faithful are eager to pack the stadium on Saturday as the Panthers host Bowdoin (Courtesy of Middlebury Football).
Welcome NESCAC fans to the season preview for Middlebury football. After a well-earned 10-7 win in a scrimmage over Dartmouth College, the Panthers are heading full tilt into Homecoming Weekend for their first NESCAC game against the Bowdoin Polar Bears on September 24th.
Lets get to it.
Projected Record: 5-3
Projected Offensive Starters: ( *Nine returning)
QB: Jared Lebowitz ‘18*
RB: Diego Meritus ’19*
WR: Ryan Rizzo ‘17*
WR: James Burk ‘17
WR: Tanner Contois ‘18*
TE: Dan Fulham ‘18
LT: Win Homer ’17*
LG: Will Fleming ’17*
C: Chris McGuire ’17*
RG: Alec Auwaeter ’17*
RT: Andy Klarman ‘17*
Projected Defensive Starters: ( *Seven returning)
CB: Matt Daniel ‘19
SS: Kevin Hopsicker ‘18*
FS: Justin Fahey ‘19
CB: Nate Leedy ‘17*
LB: Addison Pierce ‘17*
LB: Aaron Slodowitz ‘18*
LB: Wes Becton IV ‘18*
DL: Henry Castillo ‘17*
DL: Rob Wood ‘18*
DL: Henry Muter ‘18
DL: Roman Trevino ‘19
Projected Specialists: (*Two returning)
PK: Max Rye ’20
P: Charlie Gordon ’19*
KR/PR: Tanner Contois ‘18*/Jimmy Martinez ‘19
Offensive MVP: Quarterback Jared Lebowitz ’18.
The Las Vegas native transferred from UNLV (a Division 1 program), but with stud Matt Milano ‘16 leading the pack, Lebowitz mostly watched from the sidelines. Now, the D1 transfer has a chance to lead this high-powered Middlebury Offense to a NESCAC title. If the Milano and Matt Minno ’16 combo sheds any light on the situation, we can expect Lebowitz to air it out pretty consistently. Can he get the job done?
Offensive Pressure is on: Running Back Diego Meritus ’19.
As a freshman, Meritus had a great campaign, averaging 57 yards and 2 TD’s per game. With Milano and Minno gone, Meritus has to pick up the offensive reigns until Lebowitz proves his pass ability. Fellow players mentioned that Meritus had an outstanding preseason- hopefully that same energy is displayed against the Polar Bears for the season opener.
Defensive MVP: Cornerback Nate Leedy ’17.
Apparently, Leedy has been an absolute force in camp so far, and he is hitting harder and faster than ever before. After averaging a total of 3.4 tackles per game in his junior year, he is clearly hungry for more in 2016. He is a seasoned veteran in the secondary and will make sure to punish those who come into his airspace. It will be exciting to see if opponents are willing to test his defensive abilities. Watch out for that hit stick.
Biggest game: October 8th vs Amherst @ 1:30pm
Last year the Lord Jeffs handed the Panthers a 24-7 loss, but Middlebury will enjoy home field advantage and have a huge appetite for revenge this season. Lebowitz and Meritus are expected to wreak havoc in the air and on the ground, while the defensive units look to level anyone holding that pig skin. Can’t wait for this NESCAC classic.
Summary:
Who cares the Minno and Milano graduated? Yes, everybody in the NESCAC knows that they were absolute beasts, but a new era is emerging for Middlebury Football. A talented freshman class is pushing the upperclassmen to compete every single day and everyone is pumped.
“Everyone is really excited to be back out here on the field,” said Wes Becton ’18. “There is definitely a sense that we playing with a chip on our shoulder after falling short of last years expectations. Everyone’s mind is in the right place and we are all focused on achieving potential and hopefully bringing home a NESCAC championship.”
Middlebury’s core strength lies within their offensive line, as they only lost Michael Brady from last year. Win Homer ‘17, Will Fleming ‘17, Chris McGuire ‘17, Alec Auwaeter ‘17 and Andy Klarman ‘17 are total animals looking forward to execute their only job: protect the QB. This unit of experienced seniors is hungry to leave it all on the field in their final season.
Behind this line of massive humans, Meritus will take charge of the running game while Drew Jacobs ‘18, who is back from last year’s knee injury, will compete with Matt Cardew ’18 for time behind the sophomore back. And…obviously, all eyes will be on Lebowitz. The Division 1 transfer will finally have a chance to show why the NESCAC should fear his play. Look for Conrado Banky ‘19 to break out as a reliable target for Lebowitz this season alongside the rest of the veteran receiving corps.
Not only is Middlebury’s offense seemingly stronger than last year as Lebowitz looks to fill Milano’s shoes, but the defense is also making more noise than prior years. Henry Castillo ‘17, Rob Wood ‘18, Henry Muter ‘18 and Roman Trevino ‘19 will man the defensive line this year, but if anybody happens to make it through, Addison Pierce ‘17, Aaron Slodowitz ‘18 and Wes Becton ‘18 will be there to flatten them. Nate Leedy ‘17 and Matt Daniel ‘19 will protect the secondary level alongside Kevin Hopsicker ‘18 and Justin Fahey ‘19.
Naturally, after a 5-3 season, the Panthers might be overlooked. But Lebowitz is ready to take over an offense that is pass heavy. Meritus is ready to build off an outstanding freshman season. Captain Nate Leedy is ready to lead this team, and hopes to prove doubters wrong in 2016.
NESCAC football is back, and we will be anxiously waiting to see if the Panthers play to their potential.
Plenty of last year’s stars are back and ready to repeat their performances last season, but there will without a doubt be a number of a breakout players in 2016, just like there are every year. For some guys, it takes a little extra time to adjust to the college game. For others, it is a matter of waiting for an older player to graduate. Whatever the reason, it is always a certainty that a handful of players will splash onto the scene each year, just one of the many facets of college athletics that makes them so fun to watch. Below is a list of some guys to look out for as breakout players in 2016, compiled through talking to coaches, word of mouth and far too much time looking at the NESCAC.com website.
Running Back Jack Hickey ‘19, Amherst
Confidence: High
Hickey was part of a three-back r
ushing committee in 2015, and he still managed to run 319 yards. However, that’s not the most impressive part: Hickey averaged a savage 6.8 yards per carry as a freshman last year. That’s absolute craziness. The 6’1”, 218 lb. tailback is a force,and with leading rusher Kenny Adinkra ‘16 gone this year, Hickey should blow up. Expect Coach Mills to pound the ball on the ground with Hickey early one while quarterback Alex Berluti ‘17 gets his feet wet.
Outside Linebacker Dago Picon-Roura ‘19, Trinity
Confidence: Medium-High
Pulling down interceptions from the linebacker position is not the most common thing in the world, but in just 7 games last year Dago Picon-Roura grabbed two of them. Now a sophomore, Picon-Roura is a big, physical, hard-hitting player. Expect a big boost in tackle numbers now that he has gotten his feet wet in the collegiate style of play. Trinity lost a key piece in linebacker Frank Leyva ‘16, opening the door for Picon-Roura to become an integral part of what is shaping up to be one of the toughest defenses in the NESCAC.
Quarterback Jared Lebowitz ’18, Middlebury
Confidence: Medium
Last year Lebowitz sat behind 2014 Co-Offensive Player of the Year and 2015 First Teamer Matt Milano after transferring from D-1 UNLV. Lebowitz was named the No. 40 pro style QB in the 2012 high school class, and redshirted in his first year for the Rebels before playing in a limited capacity in 2014. Middlebury is likely to stick to their style of play and rely
Lebowitz will be looking to continue the tradition of stellar Panther quarterbacks.
heavily on the pass, although Lebowitz is an athletic signal caller who even lined up at receiver last year for the Panthers. He is a good runner—representing Middlebury’s first dual threat QB since Donnie McKillop ’11.
Quarterback Alex Berluti ‘17, Amherst
Confidence: Medium
With last year’s starter Reece Foy ‘18 succumbing to a season-ending knee injury in August, Berluti steps in with the pressure of extending a 19-game win streak. While his predecessor certainly set the bar high for Berluti, the senior has the advantage of an extra few inches over Foy, which will certainly help him read the defense. Amherst plays best when they can mix between run and pass plays pretty evenly, so Coach Mills will certainly be relying on Berluti to help this offense maintain the fluidity that has won it three straight NESCAC titles.
Wide Receiver Ben Berey ‘17, Tufts:
Confidence: Medium-Low
My confidence isn’t medium low in Berey because of anything he does, but rather because of Tufts’ system. Relying heavily on the combination of Chance Brady ‘17’s rushing attack and screen passes to wideout Mike Rando ‘17, Berey hasn’t been the primary option throughout his college career. However, with the loss of Jack Cooleen ‘16, it may just be time for Berey to step into a huge role for the Jumbos. On a team where the leading receiver (Cooleen) had three touchdowns, Berey had two, and I think that quarterback Alex Snyder ‘17 and Berey will hit their stride this season as opposing defenses focus most of their efforts on shutting down the Tufts ground game.
Running Back Peter Boyer ‘19, Bates
Confidence: Low
In a very run-heavy offense, Peter Boyer looks like he is going to get the nod as the starting tailback on opening day. While Boyer has limited in-game experience during his collegiate career, he did average 4.3 yards per carry last season. However, the lack of confidence stems from Boyer’s small sample size: he had just 10 rushing attempts in 2015. The nature of an offense that utilizes the option is that lots of different guys get touches, but if Boyer can keep up the efficiency he showed a spark of last season, he could emerge as Bates’ number one option.
Amherst is primed and ready to take the crown back to Amherst again, but that will be no easy task after some big losses, including injured quarterback Reece Foy (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics).
Editor’s note: Liam O’Neil is one of our newest writers, and he will be taking on one of our newer features, a weekly “Top 10.” Liam hails from southern Connecticut and has loads of home state pride, which I anticipate will show in his writing. Enjoy Liam’s first article for NBN.
With the 2016-2017 NESCAC football season quickly approaching, it’s time to take a look at which games you should have circled on your calendar. Like most years, the landscape of the NESCAC should remain the same with perennial powers Amherst and Trinity as the overwhelming favorites to win the league. Tufts and Wesleyan are both dark horse contenders and Middlebury should round out the top 5. From there, there is a steep drop in quality teams which further promotes the notion that in relation to football, the ‘CAC is a league of two tiers. Anyhow, whether or not they are played for championship ramifications, tradition, or just plain bragging rights, here are the top 10 games to watch for the 2016-2017 season.
#10) Bowdoin @ Colby (November 12th)
While neither team will be a title contender, the rivalry between Bowdoin and Colby is important to both schools and the state of Maine as a whole. On the final week of the season, look for both teams to try and end their year on a high and improve upon disappointing campaigns in 2015.
#9) Bates @ Bowdoin (November 5th)
The CBB Championship should be determined on November 5th when Bates travels to face Bowdoin. I recently saw a joint-practice with Bowdoin and Tufts and while the Polar Bears looked sharp in “7 on 7,” once the action turned to “11 on 11” it quickly became apparent that Bowdoin lacks the size and strength on the interior lines to compete with the league’s best. As of right now, neither team is talented enough to contend for for a NESCAC championship, so for the moment, the CBB trophy will have to suffice.
#8) Middlebury @ Hamilton (November 5th)
The scheduling gods must hate Hamilton. The Continentals have the pleasure of traveling to Amherst and Wesleyan in weeks 1 and 2 and hosting Trinity in week 3. While the team has made great strides under third year coach Dave Murray, I don’t see them escaping their early season gauntlet with a win. Luckily for Hamilton, things get a little easier after week 3. So much so in fact that I predict the Conts’ will be riding a three game win streak into their week 7 matchup with Middlebury. The Panthers lost reigning NESCAC player of the year Matt Milano (Connecticut guy) to graduation and could be ripe for the upset in this game. If Hamilton can find a way to win, it will show they’re for real.
#7) Williams @ Amherst (November 12th)
Amherst should roll in this game, but I would have felt bad not including “The Biggest Little Game in America” on this list. As the longest active rivalry in history, it’s always great to see the conference get a shout out on College Gameday. Plus, the game is aired on NESN which is just one small step away from primetime ESPN. Speaking of Williams, the cupboard isn’t exactly bare. The Ephs have fallen on tough times as of late but I always thought their struggles could be attritubuted more to poor game planning and less to a lack of talent. Expect that to change as former St. Lawrence head coach Mark Raymond takes the reigns in Williamstown.
#6) Amherst @ Middlebury (October 8th)
As a team looking to replace several key players, Middlebury could not have picked two better teams to open their season with. The Panthers host Bowdoin in Week 1 and travel to Colby in Week 2 which means that QB Jared Lebowitz will have a couple soft matchups to settle into his new role as the starter before a big tilt vs. Amherst. Both teams should be unbeaten coming into this game and it will add a little excitement in what looks to be an otherwise mundane week 3.
#5) Amherst @ Wesleyan (October 22nd)
Worst case scenario is a 4-0 Amherst traveling to play a 3-1 Wesleyan. But if Wesleyan beats Tufts in the opener, it will be a battle of unbeatens. Regardless, this should be the best team Amherst will have faced to this point.
#4) Tufts @ Trinity (October 15th)
In last years contest Trinity QB Sonny Puzzo engineered a frantic last minute drive to send the game into overtime. While the Bantams prevailed in OT, Tufts was literally seconds away from dropping a monumental upset. Tufts has its best team in school history but the Jumbos won’t be sneaking up on anyone. With this year’s contest being at Trinity, I’d say the Bantams will have the edge.
#3) Trinity @ Wesleyan (November 12th)
The game between Trinity and Wesleyan will be the marquee matchup in week 8. Both schools have a longstanding tradition of playing each other the final week of the season, and this year’s tilt could have serious championship implications. It’s not out of the question to think a one loss Wesleyan could upset undefeated Trinity in the last week and send the whole league into chaos.
#2) Wesleyan @ Tufts (September 24th)
On September 24th under the lights in Medford, MA, one team’s championship hopes will crumble. Wesleyan is coming off a disappointing campaign that saw them go 5-3. However, the Cardinals led by “Mr. Everything” Devon Carrillo (Connecticut guy), are more mature and hungrier than ever. On the other hand, this year’s Tufts team is the most talented squad coach Jay Civetti has ever fielded. The Jumbos are loaded with upperclassmen at key positions. If Tufts can contain Carillo, they should win a close one. But then again, that’s a pretty tough task…
#1) Amherst @ Trinity (November 5th)
For the second year in a row, the NESCAC championship should come down to the week 7 matchup between Amherst and Trinity. Amherst is riding a 19 game win streak into this upcoming season and they should still be undefeated coming into this game. You’ve gotta think it makes Coach Jeff Devanney crazy to see his Trinity teams have to take a back seat the last couple of years. The game should be an all out battle and in a conference that lacks a championship game, November 5th at the Coop will be as good as it gets.
This is not a NESCAC baseball field, but it is what some fields looked like because of the weather.
Nothing says “baseball” like six inches of snow, right? Believe it or not, it is spring in the NESCAC. Though we may be trudging through snow and having games canceled because of “inclement weather” (i.e. sudden blizzard in April?!?!), we will be able to see the field by this weekend, and there will be games played on them. The weather can only deprive us of NESCAC baseball (and MLB Opening Day games) for so long.
Braving mercurial weather conditions, the teams played their first of many NESCAC Division series Friday and Saturday (The games between Wesleyan and Colby do not count towards their conference record). While most NESCACs were delaying or postponing weekend matchups, Williams and Middlebury continued to soak up the gorgeous Arizona sun in their first NESCAC West series but have returned to NESCAC turf for the remainder of the season.
STOCK UP
Guys making—or remaking—history
Williams’ pitcher Luke Rodino ’17 and Hamilton’s 1B Andrew Haser ’17 did more than make a good first impression in their NESCAC openers.
Rodino threw a complete-game eight-hitter without walking a single batter. Alone, the accomplishment is pretty nice, but if you consider that no other Eph pitcher has done that in 37 games (i.e. 369 days ago), it’s amazing. As a result, Williams defeated rival Middlebury 8-2, improving their record to 5-8 overall and 1-0 in the NESCAC West. And here’s a fun fact for you: the last time Williams did not walk any batters was also thanks to Rodino’s arm.
If neither his NESCAC Player of the Week nod nor his clutch walk-off have sufficiently marked him as a threat at the plate, Andrew Haser’s ’17 school-record three home runs for Hamilton on Friday will certainly do the trick. The hotshot hit his home runs in consecutive innings against the team from Central Massachusetts; he’s racked up five so far this season, just two short of the program’s single-season mark, and 10 in his collegiate career (three away from yet another school record). At this rate, the junior will have no problem shattering those records before he graduates, let alone this year. I guess you could say he’s having a pretty good start to the season.
The underdogs-of-the-underdogs
It’s time to stop thinking about Middlebury as the team that comes in last in NESCAC standings each season and to start applauding their achievements as they come. The Panthers beat Williams in the final two games of a three-game NESCAC West series this weekend, first by virtue of a 2-1 crazy walk-off and then by a 11-4 tally in Saturday’s nightcap. The team has demonstrated noticeable improvement across the board. John Luke ’16 is Middlebury’s comeback kid: he seems to be making up for three years of mediocre hitting, as he now leads the team and most players in the NESCAC with his .432/.462/.595 slashline. Meanwhile, Jake Turtel ’18 has developed his skills all around, earning the starting 2B position after not playing much at all last season and racking up a .325/.372/.375 combination at bat. Former 2B Brendan Donohue ’18 has proven himself to be quite a wild card, moving around the diamond to LF and even to pitcher and maintaining his hitting reliability with a .320/.393/.400 slashline. Middlebury only committed two errors in three games (compared to Williams’ seven), and that solid command of the field is no doubt a result of diligent team growth.
Middlebury should really be excited by their arsenal of talented rookies. With speed and a strong arm, Sam Graf ’19 is an asset to the outfield with only one error in 12 games, while Spencer Tonies ’19 is making a big impact at shortstop (.441/.474/.559). Behind the plate, Phil Bernstein ’19 has been a great defensive force in the weekend’s games. Their progress may not mean that much right now, but in the long run, investment in the younger players will result in a more competitive team. No, the Panthers aren’t going to take the NESCAC West anytime soon, but if they keep up the good work, they may break free from their cycle of disappointment. Here’s looking at you, kids.
P Cole Dreyfuss ’16 (HAM)
Taking the mound after Hamilton’s 18-8 defeat against Amherst, Cole Dreyfuss ’16 ruled all seven innings of Saturday’s Game One. His imposing two-hitter force not only surprised Amherst but also made them visibly nervous. The senior captain held Amherst hitless for one stretch of 5.2 innings. With this victory, Dreyfuss earned his team-leading third win of the season, which raises his career record to 12-8 (third place on the team’s career wins list).
Although Amherst came out on top in the weekend’s series, winning two of the three games—albeit that the last one stretched into extra innings—Hamilton definitely showed both the flustered Jeffs and the entire NESCAC that the Continentals won’t be beaten without a hard fight. And most of that tenacity this weekend can be credited to Dreyfuss’s fantastic pitching.
STOCK DOWN
Bowdoin’s pitching
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Polar Bears’ early success was due to either hidden talent or mediocre competition, and right now, it’s looking like the latter. There’s no denying that Ben Osterholtz ’19 (0.66 ERA), Connor Rooney (1.13 ERA), and Harry Ridge (2.18 ERA) are good pitchers; Michael Staes ’16 (3.71 ERA) isn’t throwing poorly either. But as a team Bowdoin has only managed to secure a 4.28 ERA and a concerning 5.16 K/G, and when it comes to the NESCAC, that’s just ok. The power we saw—or thought we saw—during spring training has simmered out: it was all relative to the competition the Polar Bears’ faced rather than the competition they would ultimately see in conference games. Luckily, the team has a solid group of pitchers to continually develop over the season.
Colby
No one expects a bottom team to suddenly play a super competitive game against reigning champions, but the Mules had nothing in their favor during their brutal 21-1 loss to Wesleyan on Saturday.
The Mules are hardly poor hitters; with a .312 AVG, they are relatively average in the NESCAC and actually have fewer strikeouts than any other team. At the end of the day, the team just had the misfortune of going up against Peter Rantz ’16 and Nick Miceli ’17, so their failings at the plate are understandable. Determining the efficacy of their defense is more nuanced. In the first game of the DH, Colby had three errors compared to Wesleyan’s zero; in the second, the Mules had six errors compared to the Cardinals’ one. Considering that their .956 FPCT is identical to Amherst’s, it’s hard to say that sloppy defense is the sole culprit for the Mules poor start. Regardless, allowing 21 runs in nine innings—11 in one inning alone—isn’t the work of a stable squad.
Why did Colby give up so many hits? Last weeks’ Pitcher of the Week Soren Hanson ’16 put in a solid 6.1 innings in Game One, holding the Cardinals to just three runs. However, Game Two was basically a pitcher party to which seven different guys showed up. Right now, the team has a collective 9.35 ERA, and when you’re going down the roster for teammates to pitch in your game, you’re not looking at a drastic improvement. Put that ERA up against the most dangerous hitters in the team, and you’ve got Game 2. And that’s just ugly. The Mules can unquestionably improve their work both at the plate and in the field, but their efforts won’t make up for poor pitching. Putting together a more reliable rotation behind Hanson—one that will get your through DH weekends—needs to be Colby’s focus right now.
Amherst’s music selection
You know something’s really bad it the NSN announcer is making fun of it. In this case, he was begging Amherst to turn off the music. Sir, I feel your pain.
My tastes may be limited to 90s rock, but I can say without hesitation that whoever made the playlist for the Amherst-Hamilton series was completely out of their mind. Why would you ever switch back and forth between bubble-gum country and EDM? Or better yet, why would you ever—EVER—play “Let It Go” from Frozen during a baseball game? What happened to good old-fashioned Jock Jams?
Amherst DJ, I have quite an expansive knowledge of said Jock Jams and appropriate pump-up music and would be happy to be of assistance to you. But seriously—what were you thinking?
STOCK WAY DOWN
Mother Nature
Amherst-Hamilton’s nightcap was delayed due to torrential rainfall. All of Sunday’s games were postponed due to inclement weather. And the last two days I’ve woken up to snowfall.
Get your act together, Nature. Spring is for baseball, not building snow forts.
Guy Davidson ’16 has some big shoes to fill as the incumbent star on the two-time reigning champs. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
The 2015 NESCAC baseball season was one for the history books: from a star-studded senior class to a handful of record-breaking underclassmen claiming the spotlight, the players made an impact not only on their own teams but in the entire NESCAC conference. With the season underway, it’s time to review last year’s hits and misses and predict what we can expect from this year’s competition.
But ICYMI, for any reason (like me—they don’t play baseball in London, where I was last spring!), here’s a rundown of the biggest storylines from the 2015 season:
Wesleyan, Wesleyan, Wesleyan: the Continual Rise of the NESCAC Underdog
The Cardinals made history in 2014 when the underdogs grabbed the NESCAC Championship for the first time; they stunned us yet again in 2015 by holding on to the title in a nail-biting match-up against longtime rival Amherst in the final. It was wild. If you missed it (guilty), you really missed out.
Wesleyan just had everything in their arsenal and all the odds in their favor. The Cardinals didn’t graduate a single hitter after the 2014 campaign, and in 2015 the team ultimately produced the program’s record-breaking 31 wins. Offensively, Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15, Andrew Yin ’15, current Cubs’ minor leaguer Donnie Cimino ’15 and Jonathan Dennett ’15 all produced in their final season. In the field Wesleyan was led by a trio of All-NESCAC performers: Cimino (CF), Goodwin-Boyd (1B) and Guy Davidson ’16 (SS), all of whom were eager to build off the momentum they developed during their summer with the Cape Cod League. Together, the trio helped produce the strongest defense in the NESCAC.
But the talent didn’t stop there: on the mound Wesleyan was a serious force to be reckoned with. Returning starters Nick Cooney ’15, a 2014 All-NESCAC selection, and Gavin Pittore ’16 both pitched in the Cape Cod League in preparation for their season. Sam Elias ’15, who competed in the esteemed New England Collegiate Baseball League the summer before last, was honored with the 2015 NESCAC Pitcher of the Year Award after accumulating a 7.78 K/9 ratio and 1.53 ERA over 76.1 IP. Elias turned into an ace, doing double duty as a starter (seven starts) and closer (four saves), and his 1.03 BB/9 rate was among the league’s best as well. Pete Rantz ’16 rounded out the Cardinals’ dominant rotation, and has big shoes to fill after the graduation of two rotation mates and Pittore’s early departure.
The Man, The Myth, The Legend: the Unstoppable Odenwaelder
At 6’5″ and 225 lbs., Mike Odenwaelder ’16 is the type of baseball player you used to look at and wonder why he wasn’t playing Division-I ball, or even pro. After all, in his first two seasons alone, the player was crowned the 2013 NESCAC Rookie of the Year and 2014 NESCAC Player of the Year and selected for the NCAA Division III Gold Glove Team, the D3Baseball.com All-American team and First Team All-New England.
The real question going into the 2015 season was whether or not Odenwaelder could continue to surpass expectations. He returned to the Jeffs last year fresh off his most successful season. In 2014, he hit .400 with six HRs and 31 RBI, posting a jaw-dropping slugging percentage of .607. On the mound he had a 1.74 ERA over 20.2 IP. Though the Amherst star didn’t pitch for the majority of 2015 because of a shoulder injury, he continued to dominate the NESCAC with his powerful hitting. By the end of the 2015 season, Odenwaelder had racked up a total of 118 games, during which he developed a career batting avg. of .372 with 16 homers, 86 RBI, and 39 stolen bases.
Tufts’ Secret Weapon: Tommy O’Hara ’18
O’Hara transitioned from “rookie” to “phenom” the moment he stepped onto the Jumbo diamond. The freshman third baseman was Tufts’ best hitter on their trip to Virginia and North Carolina. He had an incredible .564 OBP in 42 at-bats with six walks. But the question no one wanted to ask remained in the minds of Tufts’ NESCAC opponents: can a first-year really transform a team?
The answer was a thousand times, yes. Tufts’ offense was undoubtedly questionable at the beginning of the season and definitely needed bolstering if it was to make it to the NESCAC playoffs. O’Hara single-handedly delivered. The freshman infielder led the team with a .405 batting average, .518 on-base percentage and .603 slugging percentage. He also hit a team-high 14 doubles while registering four home runs, 42 runs scored and 42 RBIs.
Oh, and did I mention he was First Team All-NESCAC as well as NESCAC Rookie of the Year? I guess you could say he’s kind of a big deal.
Hamilton’s Franchise: Joe Jensen ’15
The former three-season athlete (football, track, and baseball) gave the Continents serious bragging rights last year, breaking records both on the diamond and off.
In March of last year Jensen outplayed the lofty expectations set out for him after a successful junior year in which he hit .398/.495/.430 and a sophomore campaign during which he set school records with 137 at bats, 30 runs scored and 29 stolen bases. He was in the top three in the NESCAC in batting average (.525), on-base percentage (.587), and slugging percentage (.775) at the end of the month. His trip to Florida was probably his shining moment in the 2015 season, as he had multiple hits in all six games. While his numbers dropped off once the Continentals returned home, he remained one of the best hitters and defensive outfielders in the NESCAC.
Jensen received NESCAC All-Conference honors last spring for the second time, earning second-team recognition after leading the league with 24 stolen bases and a gaudy .450 on-base percentage. His .398 batting average ranked third in the NESCAC.
“His ability to affect the game both defensively and offensively with his speed is something that sets him apart from his peers, both on the field and as a professional prospect,” Hamilton coach Tim Byrnes said following Jensen’s senior season. “Joe is a true take-away center fielder with a plus arm for this level. He’s able to use his plus speed to beat out infield singles, stretch singles into doubles and steal bases at will.”
Bowdoin’s Starting Pitcher Henry Van Zant ’15 (the NESCAC’s Best Non-Cardinal Pitcher)
Van Zant closed out a fantastic career for the Polar Bears by recording one of the finest seasons in program history; he tied the program’s single-season record for wins by going 7-1, including a 5-0 mark in conference games, with a 1.95 earned run average. That some rainy weather allowed Van Zant to pitch and win five NESCAC games is a miracle. Nobody had started five conference games since two players did so during the 2013 season, and Van Zant’s five wins in conference games is a NESCAC record. His complete game shutout over Wesleyan, which ended in a 1-0 victory for the Polar Bears, made him 6-0 overall against NESCAC teams.
Van Zant’s career amounted to 17 win (tied for third in school history) and 168 career strikeouts (ranking him fifth all-time at Bowdoin). Van Zant was named a second-team selection for the All-NESCAC and D3baseball.com teams.
Though Van Zant ultimately lost the Pitcher of the Year nod to his top rival, his remarkable senior season no doubt gave the conference a difficult decision to make.
So with that in mind, here are some of the biggest questions you should have as the 2016 season unfolds:
The Pitcher Problem: Who will take the mount in place of former starters?
Year after year, graduation and the pros inevitably lead to casualties on teams’ rosters, but the damage inflicted this year, especially on the mound, is shocking. Reigning champs Wesleyan lost three—Elias, Pittore, Cooney—of their four top pitchers, leaving Rantz, who threw 60.2 innings with a 2.97 ERA in 2015, to pick up the pieces. After losing Van Zant, Bowdoin has to redesign its pitching plan, and Trinity loses ace Sean Meekins ’15, (3-1, 2.01 ERA, 10.48 K/9, 44.2 IP). Tufts lost Tom Ryan ’15 and Willie Archibad ’15. Amherst lost John Cook ’15. Even Middlebury lost Eric Truss ’15, who finished 9th in the NESCAC.
The pitching lineups of Hamilton, Williams, Bates and Colby appear unscathed, but time has yet to tell how the returning starters will mesh with the young up-and-comers on the roster.
While the teams’ are grateful for the underclassmen they set as starters last season, they still need to figure out how inexperienced pitchers will contribute to NESCAC competition during spring training. The clock’s ticking.
The Odenwaelder Inheritance: Who will fill the shoes left in centerfield?
As anticipated, Odenwaelder was picked by the Baltimore Orioles in the 16th Round (493 overall) of the 2015 Major League Draft. But anticipation didn’t seem to lead to effective planning: Odenwaelder’s incredible talent overshadowed several, if not most, of the other Jeffs, and has consequently left a gaping hole to be filled.
Thankfully, Amherst returns several promising team members, including Harry Roberson ’18, he finished his breakout freshman year with an OBP of .429. Yet, while Roberson is unquestionably a standout hitter, it’s unknown if he can carry the team like Odenwaelder. Yanni Thanopoulos ’17 and Connor Gunn’16 have promising stats, but it’s unlikely Amherst will be the same offensive dynamite as last spring.
Nevertheless, Amherst pushed Wesleyan all the way to extra innings in a winner-take-all NESCAC championship game, so all hope is not lost for the Jeffs.
The End of an Era? How will reigning NESCAC champs Wesleyan compete against the competition after losing most of their starters?
Elias, Cooney, Goodwin-Boyd, Dennett and Yin are off the field and into the real world of post-college life. Pittore signed as an undrafted free agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cimino is with the Cubs organization. Guys essential to the Wesleyan machine, and part of the epic 2015 class of athletes at Wesleyan, are no longer a part of its construction, and for the two-time reigning NESCAC champions, that’s pretty frightening.
Shortstop Guy Davidson ’16 had a notable 2015 season and is back to up his game, but there are very few sure bets in the Cardinals’ lineup. On the flip side of that, though, the early returns on Wesleyan’s shiny, new lineup are darn right impressive. The Cardinals are hitting .386/.469/.600 as a squad through eight games down in Arizona. Gotta love that thin Tucson air.
Wesleyan has been so successful because it has been a complete, practiced team—the players worked for years to mesh together and become the reigning champions. There are a lot of gaping holes in the lineup now, and it’s unlikely the Cardinals will be able to fill them all this season. We’re looking at a dramatically different team than those we’ve grow accustomed to seeing come out of close games victorious again and again.
So, with Wesleyan in a sort of limbo, who will take up the mantle in the West? Amherst lost its beloved star to MLB, but still packs a ton of talent. Middlebury and Hamilton have promising players, but it’s unlikely that they are ready to step up to the plate. Williams has been in a sort of middle tier limbo for awhile now. I’d wager that Hamilton may have an inside track on a playoff spot; the team lost only one starting player going into this year, guaranteeing a solid lineup.
The Spring of Tufts? Do the Jumbos have what it takes to win the NESCAC East this season?
The Jumbos aren’t without any losses: their lineup will have to make do without big contributors like Connor McDavitt ’15 and Bryan Egan ’15. However, Tufts’ fantastic pitchers Tim Superko ’17 and Andrew David ’16 give them a solid baseline on the field, and in a re-building season for many teams, that is a real boon. And then there’s O’Hara. Tommy O’Hara earned D3baseball.com Preseason All-America accolades following a tremendous freshman campaign last spring.
By putting faith in underclassmen—and phenomenal ones at that—early on, the Jumbos have outsmarted other NESCAC teams struggling to pull together competitive lineups.
Chemistry on the Continentals: Is Hamilton the next NESCAC powerhouse?
Hamilton lost just one starter from the lineup, and the strength of the pitching rotation returns.
Even though the Continentals will play without Alex Pachella ’15 or JJ Lane ’15, co-captain Cole Dreyfuss ’16 stood out as the real pitching MVP for the Continentals last spring. Dreyfuss assembled a 5-2 record in seven starts and struck out 41 batters. He ended up third in the conference with a 1.89 earned run average in 47.2 innings.
Overall, the rotation is promising: hard-throwing right-hander Spencer Vogelbach ’18 was the No. 4 starter in 2015 but should be in the weekend rotation this season. Vogelbach went 4-1 with one save and was sixth in the NESCAC with a 2.25 ERA, averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings and fanning a total of 44 batters in 40 innings, but with the propensity to get wild at times. Last season, Finlay O’Hara ’17 also emerged as a versatile arm, earning a 2-2 record and two saves. F. O’Hara struck out 28 hitters and walked just five in 28.2 innings. Depth in the bullpen is added by Dan DePaoli ’18, who fanned 22 batters in 22.2 innings. Charlie Lynn ’18 and Mike Borek ’18 provide depth in the bullpen.
Offensively, Hamilton has fostered a dangerous core group of juniors in twins Kenny and Chris Collins ’17, designated hitter Andrew Haser ’17 and outfielder Ryan Wolfsberg ’17. Kenny Collins, one of this year’s captains, finished with 32 hits in 102 at-bats for a .314 average and scored 21 runs, while hitting six doubles and three triples. He was fourth in the NESCAC with 16 stolen bases and represented the Wellsville Nitros in the 2015 New York Collegiate Baseball League All-Star Game. Chris Collins, meanwhile, hit .309 (30-97), cracked six doubles and stole 14 bases. Haser showed great improvement last season after having an OBP below .300 in 2014. To finish off the group, Wolfsberg developed his skills in the California Collegiate League last summer after finishing in fourth in the NESCAC with a .396 batting average (36-for-91) in 2015, smacking nine doubles, three triples and four homers and driving in 25 runs. The outfielder posted a .692 slugging percentage and a .449 on-base percentage.
Second baseman Zack Becker ’16 also proved to be an incredible offensive player last season, rebounding after a disastrous sophomore campaign. He was eighth in the conference with a .365 batting average (27-for-74) and enjoyed his best season at Hamilton with five doubles and a pair of round-trippers to go with an on-base percentage of .447.
In just two weeks, the season will begin in full force. While you can never really be sure what’s going to happen in baseball, it’s certain that these questions will significantly linger throughout the spring.
Matt St. Amour ’17 lead Middlebury with 19.5 ppg this season, second-most in the NESCAC. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)
Let’s begin at the beginning.
With the team’s top two scorers graduating from the season before, I figured that Middlebury might go through some transition time as it tried to discover its new identity. Expectations around the program were low considering the scoring exodus. Still, after a ninth-place finish in the NESCAC a season ago, and my perception that as talented as Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 were that they had a tendency to stall the offense, my sense was that there was nowhere to go but up, but in my most optimistic vision the Panthers were still packing it up after a loss in a road playoff game.
The season-opening loss to Baldwin Wallace wasn’t too upsetting. Baldwin was an 18-9 team a year ago and already had two games under its belt before meeting up with Middlebury. It was the six-point loss to lowly St. Lawrence the next night that got me worried. A week later, after getting a W against SUNY-New Paltz on a Tuesday, Middlebury faced its toughest early season opponent in then-No. 25 Oswego St. I was just hoping that the Panthers would be competitive. They were not, and lost 70-55. After a loss to Skidmore a week later that made Middlebury 3-5, with two of those wins against Johnson St., I was ready to throw in the towel. I knew it was a tough early season schedule, entirely on the road with two teams hovering near the bottom of the D3Hoops Top 25. Still, they gave me little reason to believe that a turnaround was imminent.
Apparently, all the Panthers needed to do was go home.
The next game was a 22-point win over Castleton St. Then the Panthers destroyed Plattsburgh St. 71-49, and that was the first real eye-opener. Plattsburgh finished the season ranked No. 23, and even though they weren’t ranked at the time, it was known that they were a solid team, and Middlebury blew them out. One of the Cardinals top guards was out, but that doesn’t make up for the 22-point beatdown that the Panthers laid on them. At tough battle on the road at Endicott, who finished 19-11 this year, was encouraging. Than another easy win against Southern Vermont (24-4). SVC is no team to scoff at, either. (If you don’t know about that program’s rise, you should check out how they got to where they are here.) They play an easy schedule, but they also just played Tufts to the buzzer, losing by two in the NCAA First Round.
Still, looking at the full body of work coming into conference play, Middlebury was 6-6, and they had yet to inspire a ton of confidence in anyone watching them. With the NESCAC opener set to take place against Wesleyan in early January, and the Cardinals’ BJ Davis ’16 suddenly looking like a POY candidate, Panthers’ fans weren’t feeling too great. Then Middlebury went on the road and absolutely ran away from Wesleyan in the second half after falling behind early. It wasn’t necessarily an aha! moment. The Panthers lost the next night at Conn College. From that point on, it was a constant struggle and battle to be consistent. Injuries and illness riddled the Middlebury roster throughout the season. Matt Daley ’16 was in and then out of the lineup, and at times looked like he was playing at 50 percent. The frontcourt was constantly rotating. Head Coach Jeff Brown couldn’t figure out whether his freshman trio was going to start or play 15 minutes or not play at all. The only guarantee all season long was the play of the starting backcourt. Matt St. Amour ’17, Jake Brown ’17 and Jack Daly ’18 started 86 of 87 possible games (the only one missed was Brown on Senior Night, when he came off the bench to play 34 minutes). The three could not complement each other any better, and with another year of growth ahead of them, the sky is the limit for the 2016-17 Panthers’ squad.
Highlight Moment: 81-79 win over Amherst in the NESCAC Championship, Sunday February 28
The Panthers really backed their way into a NESCAC Tournament home game. Losing – badly – to Trinity and Amherst on the last weekend of conference play should have cost Middlebury that privilege, but Wesleyan had an even worse weekend, falling to Colby and Bowdoin. So, coming into the tournament, expectations remained low for the Panthers. Even if they got by Wesleyan, the thinking went, there was no way they could upset Trinity, who hosted the tournament, and beating Amherst was a pipe dream. Somehow, though, the stars aligned. Daley had the best weekend of his career against the Bantams and No Mascots. The big man had 34 points on 14-18 (77.8 percent) shooting, and most importantly was in the game for 27 and 28 minutes, providing an imposing post presence. It took a poorly-timed carry from Johnny McCarthy ’18 in transition to really put the nail in the coffin against Amherst, but whether it was the right call or not, Middlebury was cutting the nets moments later for the third time in program history, and the one that, though he wouldn’t admit, has to be particularly sweet for Jeff Brown. Not only was it a statement performance a year after missing the NESCAC Tournament, but coaching your own nephew to a conference title has to be pretty sweet.
Team MVP: PG Jake Brown
Matt St. Amour was the leading scorer, First-Team All-NESCAC honoree and First Team All-NbN recipient; Jack Daly emerged as a great perimeter defender; I will still maintain that Matt Daley is the most talented big man in the NESCAC and he played awesome at times; Adisa Majors ’18 stepped up and proved that he’s a viable starter in this league; but despite all of that, Jake Brown was the most valuable and important player for Middlebury this season. He’s the best point guard in the NESCAC. His game is not yet complete. He struggles from the free throw line, and I think he will still make an improvement from the three-point line next season, but everything else he does is elite. The ball handling wows spectators. The defense is tenacious and frustrating for opposing guards. The transition game is nearly flawless. And he got to a new level of swagger this season that made clear why he was elected a captain by his teammates. In the Panthers’ NCAA Second Round loss, it was Brown who nailed a clutch three-pointer to give them a chance on the final play in a one-possession game. If he continues to play like this, and even makes marginal improvements next season, it will be a shame if he isn’t recognized as a NESCAC First Teamer.
Biggest Surprise: The Emergence of Forward Adisa Majors
Majors came completely out of nowhere this season to become an interior force. As a freshman, the 6’5″ 210-pounder was sparsely used, only seeing limited action in 12 games. His skills and athleticism were both far off from allowing him to play a significant role. The one thing he had going for him was some natural size, but even that seemed to work against him as he lacked the quickness necessary to be effective.
All of that changed between last season and this. Majors’ game blossomed in every facet, and physically he transformed himself. Reportedly a health nut, Majors came into the season in fantastic shape and looking much stronger. He added a 15-foot jumper to his game. And the best part about watching him play is his energy. Majors has one of those motors that never stops. The big man finished the season as the team’s fifth-leading scorer at 7.2 ppg, but it was during a stretch of six NESCAC games in February – often without a healthy Matt Daley – that Majors proved he belonged, averaging 14.0 ppg while shooting 68.6 percent and grabbing 6.3 rpg.
Most Interesting Stat: Matt St. Amour, Jake Brown and Jack Daly finished the season first, second and third in the NESCAC in steals per game.
St. Amour paced the league with 1.8 steals per game, while Brown and Daly just eked by a couple of others who averaged, when rounded, 1.6 steals per game. Middlebury’s defense was tenacious, and more than anything it was just constant effort that lead to all of those steals. Credit needs to be given to the frontcourt, as well, for tipping post feeds that the guards were able to collect. St. Amour, Brown and Daly were also great at having active hands when sinking into the paint. Having this crew coming back gives Middlebury fans hope that the Panthers can once again be productive next year.
Like many first round match ups, Southern Vermont and Tufts took very different roads to reach the NCAA tournament. Southern Vermont lost two of their first three games to Salisbury and St. Thomas (MN), both in the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic hosted by Stevenson University. Neither of these losses can be considered bad ones: Salisbury and St. Thomas are both tournament teams, and are ranked at #24 and #8 in the country, respectively. These two close losses actually seemed to help SVM, as the Mountaineers went 23-1 the rest of the way, including winning their last 16 games, all of which were against conference opponents. Sure, the NECC is not loaded with talent (no other NECC team received an NCAA bid), but conference games are conference games no matter how you slice it. SVM accumulated some quality wins against Regis and Becker en route to their conference tournament title, and also won a close game at Bates just before the winter break. I know Bates didn’t have a very good year, but no matter who you are, playing in that small gym is not easy thanks to the rowdy student section, so this is a good win. Unfortunately for SVM, the only three tournament teams they played are their three losses, with the third being Middlebury. When SVM visited the Panthers, Middlebury blew them out by 18 points. SVM couldn’t shut down Matt St. Amour ’17, and strong contributions from Matt Daley ’16 and Jack Daly ’18 helped to put away the Mountaineers early. With all this in mind, riding a 16-game win streak into the NCAA tournament is not something to turn your nose up at. After receiving two straight NECC Coach of the Year honors, SVM Head Coach Dan Engelstad has shown that he knows how to win. SVM doesn’t play down to their competition, evidenced by their average margin of victory of 17.1 ppg. I don’t care who they’ve played; SVM has showed they are dangerous.
On the other side of the court are the Tufts Jumbos. The Jumbos are a streaky team, so their loss last weekend to Amherst in the NESCAC semi-finals could be either good or bad. Following losses, the Jumbos have done won the following number of games before their next loss: one, eight, one, four, and four. This leaves it completely up for speculation what the Jumbos will do following this most recent loss. One thing Tufts has shown is that they do not lose two games in a row. Even after a poor game against Trinity at home, Tufts bounced back the next day and beat Amherst with relative ease. The tough schedule Tufts plays has battled tested them, and I think they’re in great shape to make a run in the tournament. The big wins for the Jumbos came against Amherst at home, and at two neutral sites against #11 Whitman and #16 Babson. In conference, Tufts beat every bottom half team, but lost to all four of the other top five teams, Trinity, Amherst, Middlebury and Wesleyan. Their other two losses were against solid teams in MIT and WPI, but WPI blew out the Jumbos by 15, accounting for Tufts’ worst loss of the season. One thing to take note of is that four of these losses, excluding Wesleyan and MIT, came against tournament teams, and two losses (Wesleyan and Middlebury) came in overtime. Tufts is a strong, strong team, and their six losses are deceiving because of the extremely tough schedule they play.
Despite their different paths to the big dance, these two teams are very evenly matched. They scored at about the same clip on nearly the same number of attempts: SVM 85.1 ppg on 65.4 FGA/game; Tufts 86.1 ppg on 65.3 FGA/game. They hit pretty evenly from deep too: SVM hits 8.0 3PT/game while Tufts drains 8.2 3PT/game, but SVM shoots a tad more consistently at 37.4 percent rather than Tufts’ 35.1 percent. Both teams rely on their rebounding, and are very even in this category as well: each team averages 12.7 offensive rpg, but SVM averages 43.0 overall rpg as opposed to Tufts’ 42.5 rpg. Clearly, the teams match up in a shooting and rebounding, so where do they differ? There is one main answer to that question: defense. While they score at about the same rate, Tufts allows 77.6 ppg vs. SVM’s 68.0 ppg. This makes the Tufts defense look much worse than SVM’s, but I think this gap can be attributed to the difference in strength of schedule. Since Tufts is playing better teams, it makes complete sense that they give up more points. I’m not saying SVM doesn’t play good defense, but there is certainly a difference in the level of competition day in and day out.
Southern Vermont X-factor: Forward Deshawn Hamlet ‘16
(Courtesy of Southern Vermont Athletics)
Deshawn Hamlet is hands down the best player on the Mountaineers roster. As a junior, Deshawn was the NECC player of the year, and he followed that up with First Team All-NECC recognition. Though the scoring is pretty spread out for Southern Vermont, this team thrives when Hamlet puts the ball in the basket. He has been held under 10 points just four times this season, and each of those times, Hamlet got into foul trouble. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding at 14.7 ppg and 8.2 rpg, each of which is driven by his strength and tenacity. Hamlet can shoot the ball from the perimeter pretty accurately, but he is very selective on his outside shots. Hamlet’s best when he uses his big body to power his way through smaller wings. At 6’4”, Hamlet is one of SVM’s tallest players, but he is very nimble for what I would guess is a 220-225ish lbs. forward (SVM’s website doesn’t list the weight of their players). Hamlet will likely be matched up with Stephen Haladyna ’16 or Vinny Pace ’18, which plays in his favor since these two are listed at just 180lbs. and 185lbs., respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more minutes out of Stefan Duvivier ’18 as a defensive stopper on Hamlet, as he is a much bigger yet extremely athletic wing. I’m excited to see what Coach Bob Sheldon does defensively to deal with Hamlet.
Tufts X-factor: Center Tom Palleschi ‘17
(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Like Hamlet, Palleschi was just named to his all-conference first team, and he is bound to have a big game for the Jumbos. There isn’t a player on the SVM roster listed over 6’6”, and on a short team I wouldn’t be surprised if Casey Hall ’16 was given the 6’6” listing out of generosity. Palleschi was on fire during the last six regular season games, and though he cooled off a bit in the NESCAC tournament, his presence alone is a huge advantage for the Jumbos. He averaged 18.7 ppg in the month of February, and with such a size advantage and the variety of post moves Palleschi has in his arsenal, he is either going to eat up his one-on-one matchup or he is going to open shooters up for wide open threes when SVM collapses into the paint. I don’t think Tufts needs Palleschi to score 15ish points to win, but it certainly bodes well for the home team if he does.
Three Questions
1.) Will SVM be able to stop Palleschi?
I could very well be wrong (I’ve never seen Southern Vermont play after all), but I don’t see any way that they stop Palleschi. He has shown over and over again that he is a dynamic scorer down low, especially against undersized centers. The big man struggles the most against Eric Conklin ’17-type post players, aka the very solid, very wide centers. To reiterate, I’ve never seen SVM play, and I could very well be underestimating the width of Casey Hall, but if I’m right, he looks like he’s a lankier center than he is a big bruiser. Palleschi should take advantage of this matchup, and he is a good enough passer that it should negate the effect of SVM doubling down on him.
2.) Who steps up as the secondary scorer for SVM?
Over the course of the season, Hall has been the secondary scorer behind Hamlet, but with Palleschi’s stifling defense down low, I am not quite sure he’ll be able to get his normal 10-12 points. I’m looking at Will Bromirski ’16 to step up for the Mountaineers. At just 5’11”, it could be tough for Bromirski to get his shots off against the taller wings of Tufts, but if Hamlet demands as much attention as I expect he will, Bromirski will be open to shoot from the perimeter.
3.) What will SVM do about Tufts’ fast pace?
I have to assume that SVM is a pretty fast-paced team based on their guard heavy lineup and lack of size. Coach Sheldon stressed to me that Tufts is still going to try to play their game: “We want to do what we’ve been doing all year. We’re not going to change for the NCAA tournament. We’re doing what got us here.” So basically, Tufts is still going to try to get out and run. If SVM can play solid transition defense, they can force Tufts into a half court offense, but that gives Palleschi more opportunities to work down low. I don’t know which SVM would prefer, speeding Tufts up or slowing them down. This strategy decision will likely decide the game for SVM.
Prediction
If Southern Vermont wants to win this one, they have to hope that they can find a way to slow down Palleschi. Make other people beat you, make Pace recreate his 33-point performance that he had last weekend when Palleschi struggled from the field, make Ryan Spadaford ’16 hit shots from deep, make Haladyna shoot 10 or 15 shots. The Mountaineers have to do something besides allow Tufts to pound the ball into the post. Deshawn Hamlet is also going to have to have a crazy game offensively. I expect him to score around 20 points, but SVM relies on a very balanced attack that I just don’t see scoring the ball like they did in conference play. Cousens Gym has gotten louder and louder as the year has gone on and the Jumbos have continued to win, and Tufts feeds off the energy of their crowd. I think Tufts is going to have a small lead going into halftime, but as the game wears on and Palleschi forces the Mountaineers into foul trouble, the Jumbos will have a good chance to run away with this one.
Prediction: Tufts 84 – Southern Vermont 72
Eye on Saturday
If Tufts wins this one like I think they will, they’re going to play the winner of Franklin & Marshall vs. Skidmore. At 18-8 in a relatively weak conference, it’s clear that Skidmore is in the tournament because they won their conference tournament. This is not to say that Skidmore doesn’t deserve to be here – they won the regular season in the Liberty League as well – but they have been inconsistent. They blew out Plattsburgh State and beat Middlebury by five, both of whom are tournament teams, but they have some bad losses. Franklin & Marshall also won their conference tournament, but at 22-5, they have showed that they know how to win just a bit better than Skidmore does. I think F&M is definitely a better and more consistent team, with a history of postseason success, but Skidmore has shown the ability to explode offensively, and I think that they’ll do that tonight and upset F&M.
This brings us to tomorrow. Skidmore is led by freshman phenom Edvinas Rupkus ’19, who is averaging 16.7 ppg from the guard spot. At 6’4”, 205 lbs., Rupkus could have a size advantage over some of the Tufts guards, but after dealing with Hamlet tonight, it might feel like Rupkus is actually a smaller guard. Skidmore has a couple big boys that measure in at 6’8”, but they don’t play very many minutes, and once again, I think Palleschi will have an opportunity to dominate inside. The ability of Tufts to knock down open shots on kick outs from Palleschi will determine the outcome of this one, but I’m expecting Tufts to move on to the Sweet 16 after a couple big wins at home. Maybe I’m a bit biased in favor of the NESCAC teams, but I keep coming back to the toughness of the Tufts schedule in giving them the edge. They have been tested, and I think that they’re ready to get a couple wins this weekend.
Here’s an artsy photo of Jake Brown ’17. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)
The Middlebury Panthers and Salisbury Sea Gulls are both dancing, but they got here in very different ways. Middlebury finished the season 17-10, and needed an incredible run through the NESCAC tournament to get into the NCAAs. Salisbury, on the other hand, fell in heartbreaking manner in the Capital Athletic Conference championship game against No. 4 Christopher Newport. The Sea Gulls (21-6, 13-5) beat just about everyone but CNU this season, losing to the CAC conference champs three times and twice in overtime, including in the championship. They didn’t think they’d be returning to the Little Dance, one year after making it and falling to Trinity in the Second Round, but the committee was kind and Salisbury is back.
Both teams’ seasons were on almost equivalent paths until the final minutes of their respective championship games. While a shocking carry call on Amherst’s Johnny McCarthy ’18 gave Middlebury the ball and essentially iced the game, an even more mind-blowing push call against Salisbury’s Kyle Savercool ’16 at the buzzer sounded sent CNU to the foul line for the win. Check out the video here, and you decide if Savercool (#15) shoved anyone.
Anyway, enough about how they got here. As Salisbury first year coach Andrew Sachs told me, “We are in [and] that’s all that matters.” Sachs comes to Salisbury, his alma mater, after six years at Bethany College and five at Holy Cross. As our loyal readers, you’ve heard plenty about what Middlebury can and can’t do, but you must be wondering just how good Salisbury is. That’s the beauty of D-III, that teams from outside of one’s region are often a complete mystery, and that can make for some pretty exciting games.
The first thing to know about the Sea Gulls is that their best player, Wyatt Smith, has been out all season with an injury. Smith was a 14.7 ppg forward last year, shooting at 58.6 percent and tearing down almost eight board per game, and had 37 points on 16-20 shooting last year in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to Sachs, Smith was indisputably the best player in the CAC. Whether that’s true or not, that assessment speaks to the accomplishment of Salisbury to get to this point without such an important player. In his place forward Gordon Jeter ’17, the team’s only All-CAC honoree, has emerged as the leading scorer, but even calling Jeter a forward is a bit misleading. The Sea Gulls have been outsized pretty much every game this year. Jeter stands at a slender 6’6″, 185 lbs, and is the team’s five-man, if you insist on putting a number on it. He’s very athletic and long, and is the focal point of the Sea Gulls’ offense via the pick and roll. More on that later.
The second thing to know about Salisbury is that they rank second in Division-III at 60.3 ppg allowed. Salisbury will try to break the rhythms of their opponents. They will press and play zone. And they will double everything in the post. And I mean everything. If Jeter has to play man one-on-one on Matt Daley ’16, this game is going to be over quick, so quick rotations are going to be incredibly important for Salisbury.
Salisbury X-factors: G Justin May ’16 and F Chad Barcikowski ’18
I’ll be honest, in my conversation with Coach Sachs, the names May and Barcikowski didn’t come up once. May has served as the team’s sixth man all year, playing 17.1 mpg and scoring 6.7 ppg. I don’t even know what his skill set is like. The same applies to Barcikowski, who’s playing 12.2 mpg and scoring 6.0 ppg. What I do know is that the Sea Gulls have played with an eight-man rotation all season, and now one of those eight, back up Jordan Brooks ’18, is out with an injury and won’t return unless Salisbury is able to make a deep run in the tournament. The Sea Gulls will need to get some quality minutes off of the bench. The saving grace is that they might be aided some by the media timeout structure of the NCAA Tournament – timeouts after 16, 12, eight and four minutes in each half.
Middlebury X-factor: C Matt Daley ’16
Here’s a kind of blurry but still sweet photo of Matt Daley ’16. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)
Sorry, everyone, back to the well here, but honestly, if Daley goes to work this game is over. He’s got more height than anything Salisbury can throw at him, and not only can he put up double digit points, he might approach 10 assists if he can effectively pass out of those double teams in the post. Defensively, Daley will have to hedge aggressively when Jeter sets screens for the ball handler. And even against the press, Daley will be key because the Panthers will look to get the ball to him in the middle to break the pressure. Adisa Majors ’18 and Connor Huff ’16 will be just as important filling in that role when Daley takes a breather.
Three Questions
1. Will Salisbury get hot from deep?
The Sea Gulls shot 24.9 three pointers per game this season, right around 50th in the nation, making 9.0 per game, which ranks 48th in the country. They don’t necessarily live and die by the three, but everyone that steps on the court for them is a threat to shoot it. All five starters are in the 30-40 percent range, and May is just above 40 percent. Middlebury isn’t a big jump shooting team, and only Matt St. Amour ’17 can really get them back in a game if they fall behind, so an early barrage from Salisbury could make things difficult for the Panthers.
2. Who can take care of the ball?
As mentioned, Salisbury is great at stopping opposing offenses, and part of that is forcing turnovers, having caused 500 turnovers this season. The Panthers, with their reputation for harassing other NESCAC teams and getting steals, caused 401 turnovers. Coach Sachs is a terrific defensive coach. He’s had really good defensive teams in the past, leading the country in steals one year at Bethany. Still, Middlebury has Jake Brown ’17, whom Sachs believes is the best point guard Salisbury has faced all season. Will the Sea Gulls be able to rattle Brown?
3. Is the spotlight too big?
Middlebury assuaged my fears that they might shrink in the moment with their victory in the NESCAC tournament, but the NCAAs are, of course, a different animal. Salisbury has been here before, losing to Trinity in the Second Round a year ago. No one from Middlebury has played in the NCAA Tournament. The current seniors got to step on the court in the final seconds as North Central was laying the smack down in the Elite Eight in 2013, but that’s it. Now, it’s a neutral site, so the crowd won’t be a factor, but there’s no denying the added pressure of an NCAA Tournament game. On the flip side, for Middlebury, they weren’t even supposed to be here As Jack Daly ’18 put, “I feel like we’re playing with house money right now.”
Prediction
On paper, I think Middlebury has the upper hand. They have way more size, and I think their skill in transition bodes well for breaking the Salisbury press. Sure, the Sea Gulls are athletic 1-5 and can be difficult to cover, but there are no slow, lumbering bodies in the Middlebury rotation, either. Daley is almost ideal to cover Jeter on the pick-and-roll, and Zach Baines ’19 will be a good defender off the bench to challenge three pointers. Furthermore, Middlebury played better competition in the NESCAC than Salisbury faced in the CAC. Sachs admitted as much. Still, there remains the fact that the Sea Gulls steal the ball a million times per game. They’re so disciplined defensively, and what if Daley can’t pass the ball out of the post? What if they get hot from three? What if Brown has a few ugly turnovers?
In the end, though, I’m going with the team that Dave McHugh of D3Hoops.com dubbed the Cinderella of the tournament, Middlebury. (You can check out Dave’s conversation with Jeff Brown from yesterday here at the 1:07 mark, although his dubbing of Middlebury as the Cinderella came in the midst of Monday’s four hour bracket breakdown. I dare you to listen to that whole thing.) Being so close to the team might have blinded me, but it also has made me acutely aware of how much better they are with Daley on the floor and healthy. They’re closer to a 20-7 type of team than the 17-10 team they finished the season as. I’m giving Middlebury the edge in a game that plays closer to the Salisbury pace and remains tight, but the Panthers’ experience on the road (only nine games at home this season) will pay off.
Prediction: Middlebury 69 – Salisbury 62
Eye on Saturday
Hypothetically, if Middlebury pulls out the win, they’ll be playing the winner of the host Stockton University and Keene St, whom Middlebury beat by nine back in February. I’ll be honest with you, Keene St. is a major underdog in this one, and if they pull off the upset I’m putting a hefty sum on the Panthers to cruise into the Sweet 16. However, I doubt that happens, and Middlebury would have to play the host on Saturday. The second day of the first weekend is all about heart and grit, because teams don’t have much time at all to game plan. Bates needed an overtime period to beat Stockton at the Ospreys’ gym last year in the Second Round, but only two Stockton starters from that game are back this year. The numbers actually have them pegged as a pretty similar team to Salisbury in that they shoot a lot of threes, make them at a respectable but not incredible rate, keep teams to under 65 points and force other teams to turn the ball over, but don’t have a ton of height and struggle rebounding the ball. With that being the case, I like the Panthers chances to sneak into the Sweet 16, but as is always the case in Division-III, it’s damn near impossible to predict, so let’s just enjoy the show.
Middlebury is the NESCAC Champion for the third time. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)
Amherst College is an athletic powerhouse, and that fact is as evident in basketball as anywhere else. Both the men’s and women’s teams advanced to their respective NESCAC Championships yesterday. On the men’s side, it was the program’s 14 appearance in the title game in 17 opportunities. That’s not a misprint. Amherst has competed in 82 percent of all of the NESCAC Championship games in history, and until yesterday had a winning record: 7-6. Yesterday, though, it was not the Purple and White cutting down the nets, but the fourth-seeded Middlebury Panthers. Middlebury limped to a 3-5 start to the season, albeit against a challenging schedule, all on the road, but that slog seemed to prepare Middlebury well for conference play. They still fell short in a couple of games that should have been locks, though, specifically on the road at Conn College and Hamilton, which put the Panthers in a do-or-die situation. Capture the NESCAC crown, or hang up the sneaks until next year. They did just what they had to do on Sunday, punching their NCAA ticket by edging Amherst 81-79 in an all-time classic that featured 23 lead changes and one game-changing call that will haunt Amherst players forever. And because of that, this is going to be a very Middlebury-heavy stock report today. My favorite.
Stock Up
Middlebury C Matt Daley ’16
Matt Daley ’16 looked like the force this weekend that so many Panthers fans have long hoped he could be. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)
Cue the preamble about the double-double prognostications and oodles of talent. We all know that already. Let’s focus on his performance during the NESCAC tournament. After getting just five minutes against Wesleyan, Daley must have gotten really pissed, because he played great this weekend. Daley started both games against some of the best defensive centers in the league in Ed Ogundeko ’17 and David George ’17, played 27.5 minutes per game (huge considering that he averaged 17.7 minutes per NESCAC game this season), scored 34 points on 14-18 (77.8 percent) shooting, ripped down 11 boards, had three blocks, and helped hold Ogundeko, George and Eric Conklin ’17 to 20 points on 7-18 (38.9 percent) shooting. The Panthers are a completely different team with Daley playing like he did this weekend, and truly are good enough to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament.
Middlebury Head Coach Jeff Brown
Coach Brown received the best gift any coach could ever ask for back in 2007 – a program-changing player. It was not because of his talent alone that Mike Walsh, class of 2008, was a game changer. After a 6-18 freshman campaign and 12-12 sophomore year, Walsh and the Panthers made to the NESCAC tournament in 2007 but finished 15-10. With one more season to play, Walsh and co-captain Andrew Harris ’08 went to Brown and laid out their plan for changing the Middlebury basketball program. From that moment on, Middlebury basketball has been a powerhouse with a winning attitude and unbelievable work ethic, playing in eight of nine NESCAC tournaments since then and making making NCAA appearances. Add in a string of phenomenal, All-American caliber players in guys like Ben Rudin ’09, Tim Edwards ’10, Andrew Locke ’11, Ryan Sharry ’12 and Joey Kizel ’13, among others, and the job becomes a lot easier for someone in Brown’s position. This season has been different, though. There are some very solid players on the Middlebury team, but no superstars. They weren’t even a playoff team a year ago. And Jeff Brown was able to rally his team after a 3-5 start, after an 0-2 showing on the last weekend of the regular season, and yesterday with Amherst leading by 11 midway through the first half. Strategically this weekend, Brown employed the zone well against Trinity, limiting their ability to make outside shots, and Sunday was just a gritty performance that really culminates the effort this team has put in all year. Kudos to Coach Brown for probably his best coaching performance.
Let’s give a little love to a non-Panther. Riopel had the best weekend of his NESCAC life over the past two days. Having averaged 7.0 points per game this season, Riopel lit it up for 11 and 17 in Amherst’s two games, and burned the nets from deep, making six out of seven three point attempts. It’s actually sort of shocking that Middlebury held on yesterday considering that Amherst shot 45.9 percent from the field and 44.8 percent from deep, including Riopel’s 4-5 performance. I expect Riopel will step into the place of Connor Green ’16 in the starting lineup next season, because he’s a dynamic offensive player at times.
Stock Down
Amherst Defense
Granted, they faced two pretty potent offenses in Tufts and Middlebury, but the Purple and White did not do a good job of getting stops this weekend, allowing 83 points to the Jumbos and 81 to Middlebury. Vinny Pace ’18 was just a dominant force for Tufts, and on Sunday it was a combination of Matt St. Amour ’17 and Daley doing the work for the Panthers. So basically Amherst was ineffective at stopping opponents in both the front and back court. In NESCAC games, Amherst had a league-best 69.4 points per game allowed, so this may just be a blip on the radar.
Trinity Offense
The secret might just be out on how to slow down the Bantams. Against Middlebury, Trinity shot just 32.8 percent from the field and in their first half against Colby last weekend Trinity scored just 19 points (of course, they exploded for 52 second half points and won by 11, so maybe the point is moot). What Middlebury did well, and what the Mules did well for the first half, was switch ball screens and pressure the Trinity shooters. Easier said than done, but definitely a key in defeating the Bantams. Teams with length in the backcourt are a tough matchup for the Bants, and St. Amour, Jack Daly ’18 and Zach Baines ’19 are pretty tough to shoot over when they have a hand up. Luke Westman ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 fall into that category, as well. In six of Trinity’s seven losses this season they’ve shot 31.6 percent or less from deep. Stop the three, stop the Bantams.
The Panthers are back in the NESCAC playoffs, and looking to beat Wesleyan for the 14th straight time. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)
The last Cardinals victory over Middlebury came on Jan. 15, 2005. That’s 13 meetings, and one other NESCAC quarterfinal. Last season’s loss to the Panthers seemed to galvanize Wesleyan on their eventual championship run. This season’s game was a huge upset to start the season, as Wesleyan was expected to be near the top of the heap and Middlebury looked like a rebuilding project. Almost two months later, it’s hard not to see the Panthers as the favorite in this game. Playing at home is nice, a new frontcourt threat has emerged (more on that later), and Wesleyan is coming off of a shocking weekend where they dropped a pair of contests to Colby and Bowdoin. Will the Cards turn the tide today? It won’t be easy.
Last time they played: Middlebury 86 – Wesleyan 76, Jan. 8 at Wesleyan
It was a disastrous start for Middlebury. The Cardinals went up 14-2 in less than five minutes. Moments later, Middlebury coach Jeff Brown swapped out a few starters for his trio of freshmen, and the game completely changed. Eric McCord ’16, Zach Baines ’16 and Hilal Dahleh ’16 stopped the bleeding and helped the Panthers clamp down defensively. When McCord subbed out six minutes later it was a 20-14 Wesleyan lead, and later back-to-back Dahleh treys tied the game at 30-apiece. The second half was a battle, but a Middlebury onslaught to the tune of a 16-5 run in the final 3:25 proved to be the difference. In the end, Matt St. Amour ’16 was the Panthers’ top scorer, which is par for the course, but the 30 points received from McCord and Dahleh absolutely changed the game. On the flip side, 17 bench points from Joe Edmonds ’16 kept Wesleyan in the game, which leads to …
Wesleyan X-factor: G Joe Edmonds
Joe Edmonds ’16
Edmonds and guard Harry Rafferty ’17 have had to adjust to slightly reduced roles this season. In 2014-15, six Cardinals played over 22.0 mpg, Edmonds and Rafferty included, and that duo started more games than not. The Cardinals have a lot more depth this season, and Rafferty and Edmonds have had to work off of the bench for the most part. Edmonds hasn’t had a great, high-volume shooting night since that evening against Middlebury. He has tallied 10, 11, 10 and 11 again in a handful of games, but otherwise has only taken a few shots and been held to single digits. The Cardinals are going to get plenty of points from guards BJ Davis ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16, but can Edmonds step up and chip in double digits off the bench while stretching the floor? A year ago, that was a no-brainer. Now, the answer is up in the air. Edmonds posted a 41.1 percent mark from behind the arc a year ago; he’s at 30.1 percent this season. Which Edmonds shows up today?
Middlebury X-factor: C Matt Daley ’16
Matt Daley ’16 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Daley might be the most gifted big man in the NESCAC. He just can’t stay healthy, through no fault of his own. He’s had so many issues this season – a soft tissue strain in his groin, a foot injury, concussion symptoms, and plain old illness that kept him out last weekend. So he never turned into the 20-10 guy that pundits believed he could be. He’s still a force when he’s in there. Daley is currently sixth in the NESCAC in field goal percentage, and the defensive end/rebounding is where he really shines. The big man rips down 7.8 boards per game in under 22.0 mpg. Imagine if he was actually healthy for all of those minutes, too, not nursing injury after injury. For what it’s worth, Daley ranks 13th in the NESCAC in points per 40 minutes, which is a testament to his importance when in the game. Wesleyan has two big guys who are athletic scoring threats in Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 and Daley will be needed in order to stifle that pair.
Three Questions
1. How will Wesleyan shoot the ball from behind the arc?
If you’ve been reading along all year, you know that I’ve been fixated on the Cardinals (in)ability to shoot the three. They’re stacked with guys with great pedigrees who have underperformed in that regard this season. Wesleyan has taken the fifth-most three point attempts in the NESCAC, but is only making 32.3 percent of them (10th in the NESCAC). There was one hilariously bad four-game stretch against Amherst twice, Trinity and Tufts when Wesleyan shot 12-80 (15 percent) from deep. They went 8-22 (36.4 percent) in the last game against Middlebury. But of course, sports is a “What have you done for me lately?” business. Still, the recent returns aren’t much better. The Cards have upped the frequency with which they’re shooting treys recently, but not making any more of them. They are 22-81 (27.2 percent) over the last three contests. Will they be able to get open threes and make them today? Maybe, but Middlebury has a lot of length on the defensive perimeter. Jack Daly ’18 will give some trouble to Davis and Mackey, as well the super-long Zach Baines ’19.
2. Who wins the frontcourt battle?
Kuo and Epps vs. Daley and Adisa Majors ’18. The Wesleyan frontcourt is skilled brings a combination of size and speed. For Middlebury, Daley has the speed and length, while Majors has the brute strength. It’s an interesting match up, because I don’t know who has the advantage. Is it the pair of well-rounded forwards? Or can Daley and Majors work together to play as one shot-rejecting, block-defending, rim-protecting super-basketball-hero? Also in the mix are Wesleyan’s Nathan Krill ’18 – high motor, good length, and a work horse – and Connor Huff ’16 – high basketball IQ, and a good shotmaker. Lastly, Middlebury’s Zach Baines is sometimes employed as a stretch-4 type. That could be extremely problematic for Wesleyan, because Epps isn’t going to be quick enough to stop him on the perimeter.
3. Can someone other than Matt St. Amour put the ball in the hoop for Middlebury?
St. Amour has been a marked man since he started the conference season so strongly, and there hasn’t been a consistent second scorer for the Panthers. Sometimes it has been Daley, recently it’s been Majors, and a few times it’s been Baines or point guard Jake Brown ’17. My worry is that everyone will look to defer too much and no one will get the job done. Baines (7.1 ppg) has never played in a NESCAC playoff game, neither has Jack Daly (7.1 ppg) or Majors (6.9 ppg). If Daley can stay on the court for 25 minutes, I think he’s going to get a lot of usage and some big buckets, and subsequently Majors might see a few less minutes, but in those minutes he should be effective as well. On the perimeter, you’re not going to get one guy scoring a lot of buckets alongside MSA. Coach Brown likes to throw everyone in in the first half and feel out the flow of the game, so Hilal Dahleh or Bryan Jones ’17 are among those who could make a surprise impact with a couple of big shots early.
What to Expect
A lot of points. It might be a bit under the radar, but Wesleyan actually has the best field goal percentage defense in the league (38.1 percent) and the third-best points per game average defensively (68.1 percent), and still the Panthers ran up 86 points in their last meeting. Especially with Middlebury playing at home, Coach Brown is going to instruct his nephew, the younger Brown, to push the pace and get Wesleyan running. Tiring out the Cardinals’ high-usage starters, i.e. Davis and Mackey, is the key to testing out that depth. The Cardinals have won plenty of high-scoring games this year, though, so it won’t be easy to run them out of the gym. I think that Wesleyan will try to beat up on Matt Daley whenever he gets the ball down low and neutralize that second scoring threat that I just talked about above, forcing the Panthers to find someone else to score the ball. And, of course, both teams will lock onto the opposing superstar: Middlebury on BJ Davis and Wesleyan on Matt St. Amour. The Panthers are usually a switching team around the perimeter, but expect Jack Daly to man up with Davis to start. On the opposite end, my guess is that youngster Kevin O’Brien ’19 is tasked with covering St. Amour. I think the height advantage that St. Amour would have over Davis or Mackey would lead to a lot of easy buckets. That means that Edmonds will also be called on to cover St. Amour off of the bench.
It’s the No. 4-No. 5 game, so it should be a close one. I, of course, have somewhat of a vested interest here, so I apologize if my prediction waxes a little fanatical.
