Tag: Sean Meekins

Lions and Tigers and Polar Bears: Stock Report 3/22

Sean Mullaney '17 and the Polar Bears are the big early season surprise. Bowdoin is 7-0. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Sean Mullaney ’17 and the Polar Bears are the big early season surprise. Bowdoin is 7-0. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

While you’ve been at home crying over your destroyed March Madness brackets, NESCAC baseball teams have swarmed to warmer climates to start their seasons. Players have already been hard at work with practices and games for weeks – and a month, if you’re Bates -, but it’s these crucial games during break in which coaches and teams determine starting lineups for many home openers set for this coming weekend. Teams may just be trying to find the right lineups, but the stats and results can’t hide from the official record.

While the makeup of Wesleyan’s roster may be different than in previous seasons, its potential for success has hardly diminished. Nevertheless, the Cardinals continue to excel thanks to veteran players like OF Jordan Farber ’16, P Peter Rantz ’16, P/C/2B Nick Miceli ’17, and SS Guy Davidson ’16. Davidson’s spring break run has clinched his position as one of the best hitters in the NESCAC: during the two-week period, he hit .444/.500/.685 as he went 24-for-54, driving in 19 runs and scoring 16 times.

Like the Cardinals, Amherst has continued to dominate the diamond, despite also losing the team’s star, current-MLB player Mike Odenwaelder ’16. Yet, Amherst is currently boasting an 8-1 record and shows no signs of slowing down going forward into the season, especially with the starting outfield of Yanni Thanopoulos ’17, Anthony Spina ’17 and Ariel Kenney ’18 hitting an outrageous .371 through nine games. Kenney himself has gone 16-for-35 and currently leads the team in batting average (.457), on-base percentage (.500), and slugging percentage (.657). Pitcher Jackson Volle ’17, who on Monday was named the NESCAC Pitcher of the Week, opened the season strong, claiming two wins in his first two starts to help Amherst secure their exceptional 8-1 overall record. Volle wrapped up spring break with a tidy 0.64 ERA.

Perhaps the greatest surprise in the early going has been Bowdoin’s brilliant winning streak. They’ve opened the season 7-0 on the strength of some great pitching to the tune of a 2.68 team ERA through the first five games (yesterday’s stats vs. Greenville were not available at the time of this posting).

Now for the first stock report of the what is going to be a very interesting season.

Stock Up

  1. P/C Nick Miceli ’17 (Wesleyan)

Throughout the Cardinals’ first 12 games, Miceli has proven that on the field, he’s a man for all seasons: already he’s stood out in the conference for stellar pitching, hitting and fielding. He’s the ultimate NESCAC Triple Threat.

The junior, having already thrown in five games, is ranked in second in the conference with a 16.2 IP, 8.54 K/G and ERA of 2.16. Miceli’s strength on the mound was clear in Wesleyan’s second game against Bethany Lutheran College on March 7. Bethany Lutheran scored six runs in the first two innings, thanks in large part to some shoddy defense, giving them a generous 6-2 lead heading into the third. The two teams were almost even in hits, with Bethany Lutheran only outhitting Wesleyan by one. During innings 3-6 Miceli was nearly untouchable, allowing four hits but no runs with no walks and five strikeouts. He then impressed in relief on March 11 against Marian University, allowing one run on three hits with four strikeouts in five innings. But that’s not all: Miceli boasts a .474/.500/.632 line in 38 at bats while seeing time mostly at second but also catcher and DH.

In short, Miceli is good. Really good.

  1. Fresh Pitching Faces

Around the NESCAC plenty of youngsters have shown some great potential on the mound in the early going.

After graduating Elias and Cooney and losing Pittore, Wesleyan hasn’t missed a beat on the mound. Miceli has looked good throwing the ball, and Peter Rantz has picked right back up where he left off, but Mike McCaffrey ’19 has shown some potential, too. His first outing was disastrous, to say the least, but so was everything else for the Cardinals in their season-opening 29-14 rout at the hands of Hamline. McCaffrey improved in his second outing, and then shined in his third appearance, a complete game victory over Carleton when he allowed four hits and one walk while striking out 10.

Hamilton’s Spencer Vogelbach ’18 first made a name for himself as a first-year at the beginning of last season. In the Continental’s spring break game against Alfred State, his 11 strikeouts were the most by a Hamilton baseball pitcher in a single game in five years — an accomplishment that should not and cannot be ignored. Vogelbach pitched in three of Hamilton’s seven wins last week, striking out 11 batters and racking up a 14.0 IP with just one walk. The rookie was sixth in the NESCAC with a 2.25 ERA and a 4-1 record last season. Clearly, his rookie season was just a preview of what is to come for Hamilton’s pitching rotation. Dan DePaoli ’18 has also impressed on the bump; he went 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts that covered 11 innings. In Hamilton’s 7-1 win at Bard on March 12, DePaoli only allowed one unearned run on two hits in six innings of work. Then, in Friday’s 17-6 victory against Lawrence, he gave up three runs on four hits, struck out six and didn’t walk a batter in five innings. He also handled four chances in the field without an error.

Two freshmen started on the bump for Middlebury in their season-opening doubleheader against Bates. Colby Morris ’19 spun a complete game gem but was let down by his offense in a 2-1 loss. In the second of the twinbill, Jack Bunting ’19 was dominant through three innings before a pair of mistakes resulted in a three-run inning and one long left center field homer that was aided by a windy day that saw three balls leave the yard. Bunting finished with 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K and 1 BB. In relief three members of the formerly beleaguered Middlebury staff, including newbie Conor Himstead ’19, combined for five scoreless innings.

  1. Walk Off Victories

It’s hard to tell what the Continentals love more: actually winning with a walk off or showing off the swagger of the moment on social media (as a loyal Continental, I’m personally a fan of both, but I confess I’m biased).

On March 14, the walk-off homerun of OF Kenny Collins ’17 won Hamilton’s first game against Minnesota-Morris by a narrow margin, 3-2. You have to love Collins’ elaborate helmet toss, shown towards the end of the video shared on Hamilton Baseball’s Twitter. I’m pretty sure hurling your helmet into the air is frowned upon by NCAA regulations, but in this situation, how could you not?

Andrew Haser ’17, the NESCAC Player of the Week, built off of Collins’ momentum ending Hamilton’s first game against Allegheny. With bases loaded in the seventh inning, Haser laced a homerun that freed the Continentals from a tied score (and this comes just two days after his grand slam contributed to Hamilton’s 17-6 victory against Lawrence). Haser currently leads the Continentals with 10 runs, seven extra-base hits, 13 RBIs, five doubles and a .706 slugging percentage. The junior is hitting .382 (13-for-34) and has only made one error in 54 chances at shortstop.

The Continentals cheered that they couldn’t believe they managed to escape defeat twice this early into the season? Neither could we.

It’s not just Hamilton walking off in style these days, though. In the second game of the doubleheader between Middlebury and Bates on Saturday, both teams threatened to score in extras of the originally seven-inning ball game. It was all ended with one swing though, when rightfielder Sam Graf ’19 notched his first career hit by smacking a long no-doubter to left field. The Panthers did a solid job of celebrating in their own right.

  1. Bowdoin: 7-0

Starting pitcher Henry Van Zant ’15 was unquestionably Bowdoin’s pride and glory last season, tying the program’s single-season record for wins by going 7-1, including a 5-0 mark in conference games. The stats don’t lie: he was the primary reason Bowdoin kept swimming throughout the season, even if he alone couldn’t launch the Polar Bears into the playoffs. Without him, Bowdoin has to redesign its entire pitching structure, to find a way to be victorious without their star.

In spite of pre-season doubts, Bowdoin really has come out on top, winning all seven of their games so far. And it’s worth noting that only two wins were by a narrow margin — in five of the Polar Bears’ wins to date, they have defeated their opponents by five or more runs.

Seniors Harry Ridge ’16 and Michael Staes ’16 impressed on the mound in Bowdoin’s sweep of Utica on March 15, pitching 5.2 and 7.0 innings, respectively. Ridge earned Bowdoin’s win on the mound while allowing just six hits and two earned runs. He struck out eight with only one walk. Staes turned in a complete seven inning performance in game two, allowing nine hits and only one run to earn the win. He struck out four Pioneers with no walks. Rookie Brandon Lopez ’19 earned his first collegiate win on the mound on March 17 against Dickinson, going six innings and allowing four hits and as many runs. Lopez struck out six and walked a pair.

Offensively, Chad Martin ’16 is clearly building upon his past success at bat. His .311 AVG last season placed him in the middle of NESCAC ranks, but he shows potential to outperform himself in the games ahead. Peter Cimini ’16 added ferocity to the Polar Bears’ deep offense, batting .400 with a .733 slugging percentage through the first five contests, collecting three extra base hits and six RBIs.

Stock Down

  1. Tufts’ 3B Tommy O’Hara ’18

Last spring training, rookie O’Hara was the wiz kid on the Jumbos, developing a .564 OBP in 42 at-bats with six walks during spring break. Throughout the season, the freshman infielder led the team’s offense with a .405 ABG, .518 OBP and .603 SLG. And let’s not forget that he also hit a team-high 14 doubles while registering four home runs, 42 runs scored and 42 RBIs.

The Jumbos may have seen only five games at this point, but their 2-3 record and poor showing at the plate are cause for concern. In his first 16 at bats, O’Hara has amassed a .188/.435/.188 line. That OBP is nice, and is carried by six walks, but he also has seven strikeouts already. O’Hara struck out 25 times all of last season for a 14.9% K rate. Right now he’s walking back to the dugout 30.4% of the time. It’s very early, still, but let’s hope the sophomore isn’t putting too much pressure on himself.

2. Trinity Pitching 

The Bantams are 4-6 to open the year, but it’s pretty obvious that the biggest hurdle they will have to climb this season is replacing SP Sean Meekins ’15, he of the 2.01 ERA a year ago. The experienced and usually reliable Jed Robinson ’16 has gotten knocked around in two starts to the tune of a 5.84 ERA, and the other pitchers with two starts already – Anthony Elgein, Jr. ’18, McLane Hill ’18 and Nicholas Fusco ’18 – have ERAs of 3.97, 5.87 and a ghastly 10.38. The bright spot for the rotation so far has been newbie Erik Mohl ’19, who shut down Plattsburgh St. in his one start, throwing six scoreless innings, but his 2:4 K:BB ratio over 7.1 IP does not bode well for the future.

Speaking of Plattsburgh St., the 37 runs that Trinity posted on the Cardinals during their doubleheader last week may be bolstering the team’s .314/.410/.433 slash line, but I’d bet more heavily on the Bantams’ offense than pitching staff right now.

 

3. Live Stats

I have many bones to pick with the stability of live stats programs this week. It’s hard enough trying to follow a baseball game using play-by-play stats rather than a video stream. A live stats program that continues that constantly lags or repeatedly—or permanently—freezes is just torture.

Over the years, I have accumulated quite a list of grievances about these streams, and the Hamilton vs. Fredonia stats stream probably embodied them all. In the first game, the program showed the stats of Fredonia’s previous game for the first two innings; when it finally switched to the Hamilton game, it never changed the lineup and eventually froze in the bottom of the third inning. It never adjusted for the second game.

Perhaps this was the most extreme of cases, but so far, none of my experiences with live stats during spring training have been positive. Help a fan out, NESCAC! Get it together. I hope, and expect, that the ability to follow along with NESCAC games will improve once all teams return up north, as is usually the case.

4. Editors

On Thursday, March 17, Trinity lost to Rutgers-Camden 9-4 in Auburndale, FL. According to Trinity’s website, however, the team actually played against Rugers-Camden. Now, as a New Jersey native, I was extremely skeptical that “Rugers-Camden” actually existed—I even looked up “Rugers” just to confirm that it’s not a slang way of referring to Rutgers University that I’ve never heard of. But no, Trinity corrected itself in the line below the flawed headline, accurately spelling out “Rutgers-Camden.”

Yet, Rugers appeared again. And then again. And then the website switched back to Rutgers. Then back to Rugers.

I can’t condemn an occasional typo (we’ve all been there), but having exorbitant inconsistencies regarding a nationally known institution on an official college website is inexcusable. Note that the errors still remain throughout the game recap.

The Bantams may have won the game, but the college itself lost in quality coverage. Shame on you, Trinity!

I thought that was all, but then this little nugget was brought to our attention. As noted above, Middlebury walked off on Bates 4-3 in the second game of a doubleheader on Saturday, March 21. According to the NESCAC Weekly Release, however, “Bates def. Middlebury, 4-3”. They have the records right in the Team Standings category, but we couldn’t help backing the Panthers on this one.

 

The Biggest Storylines of 2015 and What to Expect in 2016

Guy Davidson '16 has some big shoes to fill as the incumbent star on the two-time reigning champs. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Guy Davidson ’16 has some big shoes to fill as the incumbent star on the two-time reigning champs. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

The 2015 NESCAC baseball season was one for the history books: from a star-studded senior class to a handful of record-breaking underclassmen claiming the spotlight, the players made an impact not only on their own teams but in the entire NESCAC conference. With the season underway, it’s time to review last year’s hits and misses and predict what we can expect from this year’s competition.

But ICYMI, for any reason (like me—they don’t play baseball in London, where I was last spring!), here’s a rundown of the biggest storylines from the 2015 season:

  1. Wesleyan, Wesleyan, Wesleyan: the Continual Rise of the NESCAC Underdog

The Cardinals made history in 2014 when the underdogs grabbed the NESCAC Championship for the first time; they stunned us yet again in 2015 by holding on to the title in a nail-biting match-up against longtime rival Amherst in the final. It was wild. If you missed it (guilty), you really missed out.

Wesleyan just had everything in their arsenal and all the odds in their favor. The Cardinals didn’t graduate a single hitter after the 2014 campaign, and in 2015 the team ultimately produced the program’s record-breaking 31 wins. Offensively, Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15, Andrew Yin ’15, current Cubs’ minor leaguer Donnie Cimino ’15 and Jonathan Dennett ’15 all produced in their final season. In the field Wesleyan was led by a trio of All-NESCAC performers: Cimino (CF), Goodwin-Boyd (1B) and Guy Davidson ’16 (SS), all of whom were eager to build off the momentum they developed during their summer with the Cape Cod League. Together, the trio helped produce the strongest defense in the NESCAC.

But the talent didn’t stop there: on the mound Wesleyan was a serious force to be reckoned with. Returning starters Nick Cooney ’15, a 2014 All-NESCAC selection, and Gavin Pittore ’16 both pitched in the Cape Cod League in preparation for their season. Sam Elias ’15, who competed in the esteemed New England Collegiate Baseball League the summer before last, was honored with the 2015 NESCAC Pitcher of the Year Award after accumulating a 7.78 K/9 ratio and 1.53 ERA over 76.1 IP. Elias turned into an ace, doing double duty as a starter (seven starts) and closer (four saves), and his 1.03 BB/9 rate was among the league’s best as well. Pete Rantz ’16 rounded out the Cardinals’ dominant rotation, and has big shoes to fill after the graduation of two rotation mates and Pittore’s early departure.

  1. The Man, The Myth, The Legend: the Unstoppable Odenwaelder

At 6’5″ and 225 lbs., Mike Odenwaelder ’16 is the type of baseball player you used to look at and wonder why he wasn’t playing Division-I ball, or even pro. After all, in his first two seasons alone, the player was crowned the 2013 NESCAC Rookie of the Year and 2014 NESCAC Player of the Year and selected for the NCAA Division III Gold Glove Team, the D3Baseball.com All-American team and First Team All-New England.

The real question going into the 2015 season was whether or not Odenwaelder could continue to surpass expectations. He returned to the Jeffs last year fresh off his most successful season. In 2014, he hit .400 with six HRs and 31 RBI, posting a jaw-dropping slugging percentage of .607. On the mound he had a 1.74 ERA over 20.2 IP. Though the Amherst star didn’t pitch for the majority of 2015 because of a shoulder injury, he continued to dominate the NESCAC with his powerful hitting. By the end of the 2015 season, Odenwaelder had racked up a total of 118 games, during which he developed a career batting avg. of .372 with 16 homers, 86 RBI, and 39 stolen bases.

  1. Tufts’ Secret Weapon: Tommy O’Hara ’18

O’Hara transitioned from “rookie” to “phenom” the moment he stepped onto the Jumbo diamond. The freshman third baseman was Tufts’ best hitter on their trip to Virginia and North Carolina. He had an incredible .564 OBP in 42 at-bats with six walks. But the question no one wanted to ask remained in the minds of Tufts’ NESCAC opponents: can a first-year really transform a team?

The answer was a thousand times, yes. Tufts’ offense was undoubtedly questionable at the beginning of the season and definitely needed bolstering if it was to make it to the NESCAC playoffs. O’Hara single-handedly delivered. The freshman infielder led the team with a .405 batting average, .518 on-base percentage and .603 slugging percentage. He also hit a team-high 14 doubles while registering four home runs, 42 runs scored and 42 RBIs.

Oh, and did I mention he was First Team All-NESCAC as well as NESCAC Rookie of the Year? I guess you could say he’s kind of a big deal.

  1. Hamilton’s Franchise: Joe Jensen ’15

The former three-season athlete (football, track, and baseball) gave the Continents serious bragging rights last year, breaking records both on the diamond and off.

In March of last year Jensen outplayed the lofty expectations set out for him after a successful junior year in which he hit .398/.495/.430 and a sophomore campaign during which he set school records with 137 at bats, 30 runs scored and 29 stolen bases. He was in the top three in the NESCAC in batting average (.525), on-base percentage (.587), and slugging percentage (.775) at the end of the month. His trip to Florida was probably his shining moment in the 2015 season, as he had multiple hits in all six games. While his numbers dropped off once the Continentals returned home, he remained one of the best hitters and defensive outfielders in the NESCAC.

Jensen received NESCAC All-Conference honors last spring for the second time, earning second-team recognition after leading the league with 24 stolen bases and a gaudy .450 on-base percentage. His .398 batting average ranked third in the NESCAC.

“His ability to affect the game both defensively and offensively with his speed is something that sets him apart from his peers, both on the field and as a professional prospect,” Hamilton coach Tim Byrnes said following Jensen’s senior season. “Joe is a true take-away center fielder with a plus arm for this level. He’s able to use his plus speed to beat out infield singles, stretch singles into doubles and steal bases at will.”

  1. Bowdoin’s Starting Pitcher Henry Van Zant ’15 (the NESCAC’s Best Non-Cardinal Pitcher)

Van Zant closed out a fantastic career for the Polar Bears by recording one of the finest seasons in program history; he tied the program’s single-season record for wins by going 7-1, including a 5-0 mark in conference games, with a 1.95 earned run average. That some rainy weather allowed Van Zant to pitch and win five NESCAC games is a miracle. Nobody had started five conference games since two players did so during the 2013 season, and Van Zant’s five wins in conference games is a NESCAC record. His complete game shutout over Wesleyan, which ended in a 1-0 victory for the Polar Bears, made him 6-0 overall against NESCAC teams.

Van Zant’s career amounted to 17 win (tied for third in school history) and 168 career strikeouts (ranking him fifth all-time at Bowdoin). Van Zant was named a second-team selection for the All-NESCAC and D3baseball.com teams.

Though Van Zant ultimately lost the Pitcher of the Year nod to his top rival, his remarkable senior season no doubt gave the conference a difficult decision to make.

So with that in mind, here are some of the biggest questions you should have as the 2016 season unfolds:

  1. The Pitcher Problem: Who will take the mount in place of former starters?

Year after year, graduation and the pros inevitably lead to casualties on teams’ rosters, but the damage inflicted this year, especially on the mound, is shocking. Reigning champs Wesleyan lost three—Elias, Pittore, Cooney—of their four top pitchers, leaving Rantz, who threw 60.2 innings with a 2.97 ERA in 2015, to pick up the pieces. After losing Van Zant, Bowdoin has to redesign its pitching plan, and Trinity loses ace Sean Meekins ’15, (3-1, 2.01 ERA, 10.48 K/9, 44.2 IP). Tufts lost Tom Ryan ’15 and Willie Archibad ’15. Amherst lost John Cook ’15. Even Middlebury lost Eric Truss ’15, who finished 9th in the NESCAC.

The pitching lineups of Hamilton, Williams, Bates and Colby appear unscathed, but time has yet to tell how the returning starters will mesh with the young up-and-comers on the roster.

While the teams’ are grateful for the underclassmen they set as starters last season, they still need to figure out how inexperienced pitchers will contribute to NESCAC competition during spring training. The clock’s ticking.

  1. The Odenwaelder Inheritance: Who will fill the shoes left in centerfield?

As anticipated, Odenwaelder was picked by the Baltimore Orioles in the 16th Round (493 overall) of the 2015 Major League Draft. But anticipation didn’t seem to lead to effective planning: Odenwaelder’s incredible talent overshadowed several, if not most, of the other Jeffs, and has consequently left a gaping hole to be filled.

Thankfully, Amherst returns several promising team members, including Harry Roberson ’18, he finished his breakout freshman year with an OBP of .429. Yet, while Roberson is unquestionably a standout hitter, it’s unknown if he can carry the team like Odenwaelder. Yanni Thanopoulos ’17 and Connor Gunn’16 have promising stats, but it’s unlikely Amherst will be the same offensive dynamite as last spring.

Nevertheless, Amherst pushed Wesleyan all the way to extra innings in a winner-take-all NESCAC championship game, so all hope is not lost for the Jeffs.

  1. The End of an Era? How will reigning NESCAC champs Wesleyan compete against the competition after losing most of their starters?

Elias, Cooney, Goodwin-Boyd, Dennett and Yin are off the field and into the real world of post-college life. Pittore signed as an undrafted free agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cimino is with the Cubs organization. Guys essential to the Wesleyan machine, and part of the epic 2015 class of athletes at Wesleyan, are no longer a part of its construction, and for the two-time reigning NESCAC champions, that’s pretty frightening.

Shortstop Guy Davidson ’16 had a notable 2015 season and is back to up his game, but there are very few sure bets in the Cardinals’ lineup. On the flip side of that, though, the early returns on Wesleyan’s shiny, new lineup are darn right impressive. The Cardinals are hitting .386/.469/.600 as a squad through eight games down in Arizona. Gotta love that thin Tucson air.

Wesleyan has been so successful because it has been a complete, practiced team—the players worked for years to mesh together and become the reigning champions. There are a lot of gaping holes in the lineup now, and it’s unlikely the Cardinals will be able to fill them all this season. We’re looking at a dramatically different team than those we’ve grow accustomed to seeing come out of close games victorious again and again.

So, with Wesleyan in a sort of limbo, who will take up the mantle in the West? Amherst lost its beloved star to MLB, but still packs a ton of talent. Middlebury and Hamilton have promising players, but it’s unlikely that they are ready to step up to the plate. Williams has been in a sort of middle tier limbo for awhile now. I’d wager that Hamilton may have an inside track on a playoff spot; the team lost only one starting player going into this year, guaranteeing a solid lineup.

  1. The Spring of Tufts? Do the Jumbos have what it takes to win the NESCAC East this season?

The Jumbos aren’t without any losses: their lineup will have to make do without big contributors like Connor McDavitt ’15 and Bryan Egan ’15. However, Tufts’ fantastic pitchers Tim Superko ’17 and Andrew David ’16 give them a solid baseline on the field, and in a re-building season for many teams, that is a real boon. And then there’s O’Hara. Tommy O’Hara earned D3baseball.com Preseason All-America accolades following a tremendous freshman campaign last spring.

By putting faith in underclassmen—and phenomenal ones at that—early on, the Jumbos have outsmarted other NESCAC teams struggling to pull together competitive lineups.

  1. Chemistry on the Continentals: Is Hamilton the next NESCAC powerhouse?

Hamilton lost just one starter from the lineup, and the strength of the pitching rotation returns.

Even though the Continentals will play without Alex Pachella ’15 or JJ Lane ’15, co-captain Cole Dreyfuss ’16 stood out as the real pitching MVP for the Continentals last spring. Dreyfuss assembled a 5-2 record in seven starts and struck out 41 batters. He ended up third in the conference with a 1.89 earned run average in 47.2 innings.

Overall, the rotation is promising: hard-throwing right-hander Spencer Vogelbach ’18 was the No. 4 starter in 2015 but should be in the weekend rotation this season. Vogelbach went 4-1 with one save and was sixth in the NESCAC with a 2.25 ERA, averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings and fanning a total of 44 batters in 40 innings, but with the propensity to get wild at times. Last season, Finlay O’Hara ’17 also emerged as a versatile arm, earning a 2-2 record and two saves. F. O’Hara struck out 28 hitters and walked just five in 28.2 innings. Depth in the bullpen is added by Dan DePaoli ’18, who fanned 22 batters in 22.2 innings. Charlie Lynn ’18 and Mike Borek ’18 provide depth in the bullpen.

Offensively, Hamilton has fostered a dangerous core group of juniors in twins Kenny and Chris Collins ’17, designated hitter Andrew Haser ’17 and outfielder Ryan Wolfsberg ’17. Kenny Collins, one of this year’s captains, finished with 32 hits in 102 at-bats for a .314 average and scored 21 runs, while hitting six doubles and three triples. He was fourth in the NESCAC with 16 stolen bases and represented the Wellsville Nitros in the 2015 New York Collegiate Baseball League All-Star Game. Chris Collins, meanwhile, hit .309 (30-97), cracked six doubles and stole 14 bases. Haser showed great improvement last season after having an OBP below .300 in 2014. To finish off the group, Wolfsberg developed his skills in the California Collegiate League last summer after finishing in fourth in the NESCAC with a .396 batting average (36-for-91) in 2015, smacking nine doubles, three triples and four homers and driving in 25 runs. The outfielder posted a .692 slugging percentage and a .449 on-base percentage.

Second baseman Zack Becker ’16 also proved to be an incredible offensive player last season, rebounding after a disastrous sophomore campaign. He was eighth in the conference with a .365 batting average (27-for-74) and enjoyed his best season at Hamilton with five doubles and a pair of round-trippers to go with an on-base percentage of .447.

In just two weeks, the season will begin in full force. While you can never really be sure what’s going to happen in baseball, it’s certain that these questions will significantly linger throughout the spring.

Bobcats Never Say Die: Baseball Stock Report 5/6

Nate Pajka '15 won NESCAC Player of the Week Honors as Bates advanced to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Nate Pajka ’15 (14) won NESCAC Player of the Week Honors as Bates advanced to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Bates knew their task was simple going into last weekend: sweep Trinity and make the playoffs for the second straight year. Actually doing it appeared like a long shot, however. The only team in the NESCAC East that Bates had swept in the last 14 years was Colby who the Bobcats sweep practically every year. But Bates had never swept Trinity, Tufts or Bowdoin over three games.

Of course statistics like that don’t really have any impact on the actual games. The quick recap of each game of the series goes like this: Nate Pajka ’15 did something awesome and Bates won. The second game was the closest the Bobcats came to losing because Trinity starter Sean Meekins ’15 kept them scoreless for five innings. Then he ran into trouble, and after Sam Jordan ’16 came on an error allowed the tying run to score. Bates won the game in extras on a Sam Berry ’15 single. The final game came down to Will Levangie ’15 putting together the start of his career to get Bates over the top.

Once again Bates is going to the playoffs at 7-5. A year ago they ended up finishing third in the tournament with their one win coming over Amherst. They are certainly the least likely team to win the whole thing, but the presence of Pajka and Berry is enough to scare teams. To make the playoffs after losing far and away their best pitcher and top two hitters is a credit to Manager Mike Leonard and the resiliency of his players.

Stock Up

Starting Pitcher Will Levangie ’15 (Bates)

In the biggest start of his career (yes, bigger than his start in the NESCAC tournament last year), Levangie could not have pitched any better. He went all seven innings allowing only three hits and one walk. He never allowed a Trinity batter to advance beyond second or multiple Bantams to be on base at once. On April 25, in the final game against Tufts, Levangie didn’t even make it out of the first inning after allowing four walks and six runs. Just a week later the entire Bates team was mobbing him after a complete game shutout. He had two starts in the NESCAC season where he bombed out quickly, but he also had two complete game shut outs. If Bates is able to win at least one game, he will be called upon in the third game of the tournament. Hopefully, for the Bobcats, the good Levangie shows up.

Hamilton

Alright so they got swept by Wesleyan this weekend. The Continentals certainly weren’t the only team to have that happen to them this year. Two of the losses were by only one run because of great starts from Alex Pachella ’15 and Cole Dreyfuss ’16. Then on Sunday they swept their doubleheader against SUNY Polytechnic to guarantee that they will finish the season above .500 for the first time since 1990. Multiple parents of the program contacted us to inform us of this news, which just goes to show the excitement building around this program. From 1990-2014 the Continentals went 233-480-1, good for a .327 winning percentage, but Hamilton is 16-13 as of today with one game left to play this afternoon. They also had four NESCAC wins, tied for their highest total since 2001. The Continentals are nowhere close to the giants in the West, but they were a fun team to follow this year. They led the league in stolen bases in large part because of the 23 from Joe Jensen ’15. Kenny and Chris Collins ’17 also had 16 and 14 respectively. The lineup returns everyone except for Jensen and should be better overall. The key for them in 2016 will be Dreyfuss and Spencer Vogelbach ’18 reprising their stellar performanances, with the latter likely moving into a weekend starting role.

Stock Down

Trinity

The Bantams didn’t play poorly this weekend. They played right about how you might have expected them to, but were not able to come up with the hits when it mattered. Their lack of offense has been their weakness all year and ultimately why they again missed the playoffs. It hurts knowing that they went into the final day of the regular season at 4-6 but still having a chance to make the playoffs. Instead, they lost both games and ended up alone in last place in the East. Hard to imagine a larger one day swing than that. Going forward, the Bantams will have to replace Meekins as well as the middle of their lineup outside of Brendan Pierce ’18. The freshmen class saw a lot of different players like Nick Fusco ’18 get playing time, and they will be the ones who are likely to lead any resurgence in Hartford. Just don’t expect it to happen next year.

Weather

Where was all of this warm weather for the entire season? Playing baseball in the northeast is never easy, but the beginning of this season was almost wiped out because of all the leftover snow. The NESCAC was able to get through it through a combination of clever scheduling, the ability to play games at the recently opened New England Baseball Complex, and the good luck of not much rain on the weekends in April. Hats off to all of those that were able to find a way to make it all work, grounds crews, administrators, etc. The good news is that Mother Nature’s stock appears like it is about to go up. The weather report for the weekend in Nashua, New Hampshire has temperatures in the 80’s and sunny skies.

Random Thoughts for Kicks and Weekend Preview 4/31

Sam Berry '15 has emerged as a stud for Bates down the stretch. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Sam Berry ’15 has emerged as a stud for Bates down the stretch. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Before diving into a somewhat amended weekend preview, I wanted to get a couple of thoughts out there that have nothing in common with each other. Also a note on the relative down tick in articles this spring: things come up (schoolwork mostly, nothing serious) and so I have written less. Apologies, and we want to thank everybody for sticking with us this spring.

1. Tufts loves to get hit by pitches: One of the few statistics I don’t keep track of really is HBP, but it really is a skill for hitters. The Jumbos excel at it with five of the top-six most-struck players hailing from Medford. As a unit, Tufts has been hit by a pitch 82 times; Bates is the next highest at 49. What we have heard is that this fits into a more general strategy for Tufts where they tend to crowd the plate and hit the ball the other way a lot. Considering that this year will be the seventh consecutive when they lead the NESCAC in that category, it certainly makes a lot of sense.

2. Mike Odenwaelder has a shot at 100 Total Bases: Getting to the century mark is something that no NESCAC player has done since 2010 when three players broke the mark. They must have been juicing the balls or something because Trinity’s James Wood hit 13 homers but didn’t even lead the league in that category because Noah Lynd hit 15 for Bates. These were, of course, the BESR days as well. Ah, the good old days… It’s actually worth it to take a trip down the rabbit hole and look at the NESCAC Statistics Page from that year. Anyway, Odenwaelder leads the league with 78 right now through 29 games (2.69 per game). Amherst has five games left in the regular season, and then there is the NESCAC tournament and potentially the NCAA tournament as well. At his current pace he needs 8.2 games to reach 100. It could be tight.

3. Two Freshmen on Bowdoin are named Max Vogel:  Alright, so one is named Max Vogel and the other is Max Vogel-Freedman, but still pretty crazy right? We haven’t been able to figure out the exact story behind it, but you should know that both are capable ballplayers deserving of their spots on the team. One can imagine that it can be difficult for the coaching staff to talk to them. Also, one is a catcher and the other is a pitcher. I for one am rooting whole-heartedly for a Max Vogel-only battery someday.

4. Amherst gets caught stealing a lot: The generally accepted breakeven success rate for stealing bases is about 75 percent according to Fangraphs.com. Most teams are well above that success rate. Middlebury has the best success rate (7-8), but they hardly ever steal so they’re not a great example. But the Jeffs are an outlier. They are third in the league with 48 stolen bases, but where they blow everyone away is in the caught stealing department. They have been caught stealing 23 times. No other team has been caught more than nine times! A good amount of those caught stealings come from early in the season which is probably the Jeffs just testing if different guys can steal, but that still doesn’t account for the whole difference.

Huge start this weekend for Sean Meekins '15 as he tries to get Trinity back to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Huge start this weekend for Sean Meekins ’15 as he tries to get Trinity back to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Weekend Preview

Only one series matters this weekend: Trinity at Bates to decide the second playoff spot in the East. The rest of the games are basically white noise that could tell us which players are doing well and which are struggling, but they don’t matter much in the big picture of things. Just to lay it out for you: Bowdoin is 6-6, both Trinity and Bates are 4-5. Trinity gets into the playoffs if they win two or all three games, Bates gets in if they take all three, and Bowdoin gets in if Bates takes two of three. Bad news for Bowdoin is that no matter the outcome of the first two games, either Bates or Trinity will enter the final game already eliminated.

Trinity X-Factor: Starting Pitcher Jed Robinson ’16

The Bantams have leaned on their starting pitching to get into this position, but Robinson does not have a win in conference play. He owns a 4.74 ERA in conference play but has a 2.41 ERA over the course of the year. Now is the perfect time for Robinson to come up big and go deep into a game for Trinity. He has never pitched against Bates which gives him a major advantage early in the game as they try to figure out his stuff. Robinson should also eschew from chasing strikeouts and focus on pounding the zone. Six of his nine walks on the season have come in his conference starts, and he has also had more strikeouts in those starts. Better for him to keep things simple and rely on his defense.

Bates X-Factor: Third Baseman Sam Berry ’15

The senior Berry has been far and away Bates’ best hitter in conference play. He is hitting .447 and has an astronomic .816 slugging percentage. He has hit safely in his last 14 games, and half of those games have been multiple hit performances. Just last weekend against Tuft he went off and had three home runs. He and Nate Pajka ’15 supply the vast majority of the power in the middle of the lineup. The guys in front of him need to get on base and force Trinity to pitch to Berry, who is one of the hottest hitters in the league right now.

Projected Starters:

Friday 3:00 PM: Jed Robinson ’16 (Trinity) vs. Connor Colombo ’16 (Bates).
Saturday 12:00 PM: Sean Meekins ’15 (Trinity) vs. Connor Speed ’18 (Bates).
Saturday 2:30 PM: Nick Fusco ’18 (Trinity) vs. Will Levangie ’15 (Bates)

Expect a playoff atmosphere at Bates with a larger than normal crowd because Bates students are on their ‘short term’ and have minimal class commitments at the moment. That should make it a fun one to watch.

The pitching matchups in this one carry a good amount of uncertainty. Both teams will start one freshman in a big spot. Both managers will also be ready to pull one of the starters early at the first sign of trouble. In this respect Trinity might have a slight advantage because Bates was forced to pitch some of their relievers in their loss to Bowdoin on Tuesday. The advantage is pretty minimal, mind you. We have talked before of how important Sean Meekins ’15 has been for Trinity, and Connor Colombo ’16 has been of similar importance for Bates.

The Trinity offense is certainly not what one would call dynamic, but they have come through with a lot of big hits. Having Brendan Pierce ’18 back in the lineup after he had to miss five games for a suspension is big for them. He is really the only player who can say they have hit particularly well as the team has only a .244 average in conference games.

The outcome of this series will probably rest on the shoulders of the Bates offense. Even though the Bates pitching might be shaky, Trinity is not going to blow anybody out. They have not scored double digits in a game all season. Bates needs to be able to get at the starter quickly and force the Bantams into their bullpen early. The Bobcats are a patient team overall but they can’t simply wear down the Trinity starters. Rockwell Jackson ’15 at the top of the lineup has to get on early and often. Winning all three games is not going to be easy for the Bobcats.

Somewhat hard to believe that the Bantams simply need to win this series in order to make the playoffs. They were 2-5 after dropping their opening game to Bowdoin, but the morass in the East has made it possible. I don’t think this will be the prettiest series to watch, but the end result is that one team will be celebrating a playoff berth.

Prediction: Trinity wins two of three and makes the playoffs.

Ranking the Individual Team MVP’s Thus Far

Mike Odenwaelder '16 has thrived in his junior year. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Mike Odenwaelder ’16 has thrived in his junior year. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

When I started to put together the Power Rankings for this week, I realized something important. Not much has really changed. While we still don’t know how things are going to shake out in the East, so far things have played out predictably and we have a good idea on how good each team is. So I decided to switch things up and go back and figure out who the MVP for each team was. Then once I had those settled, I went back in and ranked each player in order of performance so far this year. Just for kicks, I put the team’s Power Ranking from two weeks ago next to it just to give you an idea of how they match up.

10. Catcher Max Araya ’16 (.317/.442/.349): Middlebury (Team Rank: 10): Admit it, you were expecting Dylan Sinnickson ’15 in this spot. However, Sinnickson has come back to earth after that earth-shattering start. He hasn’t hit a home run since Middlebury’s third game of the year and has an OBP of .286 in NESCAC games. Araya, meanwhile, has continued his year-to-year improvement and stepped into full-time catching duties with great success. Offensively, Araya leads the Panthers with 11 bases on balls (and no one else is particularly close) and generally puts the ball in play with authority. The one thing lacking from his offensive game is a bit more pop, as he has just two extra base hits on the year. But Araya really gets the nod here for his work behind the dish, where has has emerged as one of the league’s best defensive backstops.

9. Shortstop Jack Roberts ’17 (.386/.429/.542, 0 HR, 19 RBI): Williams (Team Rank: 7): As a group the Williams’ offense has taken a step back from a year ago, but that has not stopped Roberts from cementing himself as one of the better players in the league. He rarely walks, but that isn’t his role as the three hitter. Roberts fits the mold of the team’s best athlete playing shortstop given his speed has allowed him to steal five bags and propelled him to four triples, tied for the league lead. His production has slipped ever so slightly in conference, but not by an alarming amount.

8. Right Fielder Nate Pajka ’15 (.353/.434/.659, 4 HR, 15 RBI): Bates (Team Rank: 5): The fact that Pajka is ranked eighth in this list is an indication of the quality of players that are to follow. After all, Pajka is fourth in the league in slugging percentage and has 14 doubles, the most in the league. In the Bobcats’ five conference games he is getting on base at a .458 clip. There isn’t really a good knock on his play either. The only reason others are above him is that they are just a smidgeon better in a couple of areas. A hit here and there really is the difference. Pajka can hold his hat on being one of the most improved players on this list; oh and that his team has a good shot at making the playoffs.

7. Starting Pitcher Sean Meekins ’15 (2-1, 1.91 ERA, 10.36 K/9, 33.0 IP): Trinity (Team Rank: 8): Yes, we are proud of our own Nothing but NESCAC contributor, but don’t accuse us of any type of bias. I think the sub-2.00 ERA speaks for itself after all. He is striking out gobs of hitters and still working late into games, a somewhat rare and valuable combination. He had been struggling a little in his previous couple of starts before getting back on track and throwing that gem on Saturday against Bowdoin. A year ago Meekins was an average starter in what amounted to an average rotation, but in 2015 Meekins, and the staff as a whole, has raised their level of play.

6. Starting Pitcher/First Basman Soren Hanson ’16 (.326/.380/.565 and 4-0, 1.78 ERA): Colby (Team Rank: 4): Hanson get serious consideration merely for his work on the bump, and when you add in his hitting contributions it is clear how important he is to Colby. Like another pitcher we will see in a bit, all three of his team’s NESCAC wins have come in Hanson’s starts. He is hitting only .263 in conference, but he is also second in RBI over that stretch so his timely hitting makes up for it somewhat. Why don’t we see more two-way players in the NESCAC? I’m not really sure, but Hanson is the best one going this year.

5. Pitcher Sam Elias ’15 (5-0, 3 Saves, 1.94 ERA, 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9): Wesleyan (Team Rank: 1): One of several seniors to raise his game in his final season, Elias has been pulling double duty for Wesleyan as both a starter and reliever. A year ago he started only one game but was still a big part of the Cardinals success appearing in 19 games and throwing more than 40 innings. This year he has been the best pitcher on Wesleyan, which is saying something considering Gavin Pittore ’16 and Peter Rantz ’16 have ERA’s right at 2.20. Elias, like all the other Wesleyan pitchers, certainly benefits from Wesleyan having the best defense in the league, but don’t let that diminish his accomplishments. That Elias is only fifth but Wesleyan is clearly the best team in the league to this point is just another representation of the depth the Cardinals possess.

4. Center Fielder Joe Jensen ’15 (.419/.470/.568, 1 HR, 10 RBI): Hamilton (Team Rank: 9): Jensen was the original inspiration for this list because he is the player with the most obvious disparity between his team and his own personal performance. Not that there aren’t others playing very well for Hamilton this season, but as a group the Continentals have not been able to take a step forward. Jensen has not delivered on the power that we thought would come this season after he hit a home run in his first game of the year. But he has continued to run wild on the basepaths with 14 steals which is sort of incredible when you consider that everybody knows he is going to run. Though he has come back down a little recently, Jensen is still having his finest season yet as a senior.

3. Tufts: Catcher Bryan Egan ’15 (.402/.510/.573, 2 HR, 36 RBI: Tufts (Team Rank: 3): When I was putting this list together, this was the one that I had the hardest time slotting in. Ultimately Egan landed higher than I thought he ever would. At first I thought Tommy O’Hara ’18 was a clear choice for MVP for Tufts, but then I looked again at the conference stats for Tufts and noticed that Egan had an incredible .571 AVG. Also, did I mention that Egan is a catcher who wasn’t even a starter a year ago. Even though he has not thrown many runners out, he deserves some credit for shepherding the Tufts’ staff. At the end of the day, Egan has hit his best in the games that matter the most which is why he ended up so high on this list.

2. Starting Pitcher Henry Van Zant ’15 (5-1, 1.26 ERA, 37 K, 43.0 IP): Bowdoin (Team Rank: 6): We saw a big year coming for Van Zant, but we didn’t see this type of dominance on the horizon. He leads the league in ERA, and that number gets even better when you isolate for just NESCAC games where he has an 0.82 ERA. All three of Bowdoin’s conference wins have come in games that he has started, and you can chalk up their 1-0 non-conference win over Wesleyan to his complete game shutout, too. Van Zant looks poised to follow in the steps of his older brother, Oliver Van Zant ’13 and win NESCAC Pitcher of the Year honors.

1. Center Fielder Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (.444/.521/.697, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 8 SB): Amherst Team Rank: 2): You probably saw this one coming from the beginning. Nobody else in the NESCAC has the combination of size, power, speed and whatever else it is that makes some baseball players so good. Odenwaelder is both tied for the league lead in homers and leads the league in OBP, pretty decent for a guy who has eight steals to boot. Now consider the fact that I spent 30 seconds considering putting Harry Roberson ’18 in this slot instead of Odenwaelder. Gives you an idea of the type of year that the freshman is having. Odenwaelder is a special player who you don’t see very often come through the NESCAC.

Do the Maine Shuffle: Stock Report 4/21

Williams and Bates split their non-conference doubleheader.
Williams and Bates split their non-conference doubleheader. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

As promised, the best drama during the weekend happened in the East where Trinity took two of three from Bowdoin while Colby lost two of three to Tufts. The question however, is did any of that really matter? Trinity, Bowdoin, and Colby all have five losses already while Bates only has two. Colby and Bowdoin are close to eliminated while the Bantams need a lot of things to happen to make the playoffs, but they absolutely must win their series against Bates when they meet.

Amherst and Wesleyan both swept their series, but the games were generally close. The Jeffs relied on their pitching in the first two games before mashing four homers in the final game to complete the sweep of Hamilton. Wesleyan also snuck by Middlebury in the first two games, before also hitting four homers in the final game of the series to win easily.

To put in perspective the type of coincidence it is that both Wesleyan and Amherst hit four home runs on Saturday, consider that amongst every NESCAC team, the only other game where a team had four or more homers was when Tufts hit six in a 28-2 dismantling of Brandeis.

Stock Up

Starting Pitcher Sean Meekins ’15 (Trinity)

The Bantams were on the ropes Saturday after falling to 2-5 following their loss to Bowdoin Friday. That was when Meekins declared an extension to the playoff hopes of Trinity and pitched an absolute gem in the first game of the doubleheader. He went all seven innings allowing only three hits and one walk. Despite the lead-off hitter reaching in three of the first five innings, no Bowdoin player advanced past second base ALL game. In fact, after a single to lead off the fifth, Meekins retired the final nine Bowdoin hitters without the ball leaving the infield. The shutout brought his season ERA to 1.91 to go along with a 10.36 K/9 rate. Along with Jed Robinson ’16, Meekins has kept Trinity on the edge of the playoff race and overcome an offense that struggles to score.

Bates

The idle team in the East must have enjoyed watching their rivals beat up on each other. Seeing Bowdoin and Colby lose two of three must have been especially sweet. The Bobcats are not out of the woods yet of course. They have still only played five NESCAC games and have to face Tufts this upcoming weekend. Going 5-2 over the NESCAC stretch run seems unlikely, but simply taking two of three from Trinity would mean Bates could win only one of their other four games and still make the playoffs by virtues of tiebreakers. Yes, that would put Bates at 6-6, but in a division without any weak links, 6-6 might end up being enough. And they weren’t really idle this weekend either since they played three games. A split of a Sunday doubleheader against Williams makes it a little easier to overlook a 22-8 loss to Endicott where the Bobcats made seven errors.

Tufts Hitting

The Jumbos are known foremost for their pitching, but their lineup has also consistently been a well above average unit. Tufts has won all three of their NESCAC series in similar fashion this year. They lose the first or second game by a little and look vulnerable heading into the final game of the series. Then the offense turns it on and the game ends up being a blowout. The Jumbos are averaging 13.66 runs per game and winning by an average margin of 10.66 runs in the final game of their series.  Not sure why they decide to only score once the stakes are so high in that final game, but they definitely tend to mash against subpar hitting. They have scored at least 15 runs in eight different games this year and have passed 20 runs in three of those games. Those numbers make their league leading 285 runs scored this season a slightly misleading number. Still, this is a very good hitting team right now.

Stock Down

Bowdoin Offense

Heading into Saturday the Polar Bears were 3-3 with the chance to jump into the drivers seat for the two seed with a sweep of Trinity. Instead, the offense went completely cold wasting quality starts from Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Harry Ridge ’16. In the first game Meekins completely shut down the lineup. Then the lack of depth was exposed during the final game. In the bottom of the second they loaded the bases with nobody out and their 7-8-9 hitters coming up. Bowdoin managed to push only one run across on a wild pitch and Trinity escaped only down one. The game ended in a similar situation when there were runners on second and third with no outs and 7-8-9 coming up. Bowdoin had already scored one run that inning to cut the Trinity lead to 6-3, but the next three hitters all got out to seal the win for the Bantams. A golden opportunity slipped through the fingers of the Polar Bears who now face long odds at making the playoffs.

Outfielder Kenny Collins ’17 (Hamilton)

Collins looked like a rising star earlier in the year. After completing his freshmen year hot to raise his season average to .359, he was on a tear as well in 2015 with an average above .400 only a few weeks ago. However, he has gone cold at the plate and has not recorded a hit in Hamilton’s past five games. He ended up not starting the second game on Saturday against Amherst but ended up pinch hitting in the seventh inning. Unfortunately, he struck out with the bases loaded to end the game. Now coming into the game as a pinch hitter is not easy of course, but the moment must have surely been frustrating for Collins. His struggles have come at the same time as the Continentals’ offense has gone cold overall. He should get back on track at some point which will give Hamilton a needed boost.

You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss: Weekend Preview 3/3/15

Williams and Wesleyan will play all three of their games at Andrus Field. (Courtesy of Wikipedia)
Williams and Wesleyan will play all three of their games at Andrus Field. (Courtesy of Wikipedia)

After the slight miscarriage that was opening weekend in the NESCAC, we actually get a full slate of weekend series, though there are still some more cosmetic changes because of the weather. But still, it’s baseball! For real! Alas, no games in Maine yet. One can only dream.

With Tufts having the weekend off, the remaining four East Division teams are tangling in series that will start the process of figuring out where exactly where each of them stands relative to each other.

The biggest series is out west with Williams taking on Wesleyan. The Ephs swept Middlebury to once again at least appear to have a shot at challenging Amherst or Wesleyan for the second playoff spot. A year ago with the Ephs at 4-2 in league after taking one game from Amherst, the Cardinals put their foot down and swept Williams to take control of the West and end the playoff chances for the Ephs. This year, Williams is hoping for at least one win against the Cardinals. However, beating this Wesleyan team is one tall task.

Three to Watch

1. Shortstop Guy Davidson ’16 (Wesleyan): We love two sport athletes, and Davidson is one of the many at Wesleyan right now. However, not many athletes boast squash and baseball as their two sports. After spending the winter as the number one for the squash team, he has transitioned seamlessly to baseball. In his junior year he has elevated his game to another level at shortstop. A year after hitting only .273 with one homer, Davidson has mashed three home runs on his way to a team high .415 BA. Davidson combines with Andrew Yin ’15 to make one of the best double-play combos in the NESCAC.

2. Starting Pitcher Scott Goldberg ’15 (Colby): Colby fans should not be too concerned at all with his 6.23 ERA. He dominated in his first two starts in Florida before having one very bad start. I put more stock into his 5 inning, 10 strikeout start against Hamilton than his 3 inning, 8 earned runs one against Castleton State. He is striking out a ton of hitters so far too which is good news. Goldberg should get the ball this afternoon in the NESCAC season opener against the Bantams. Last year against Trinity he didn’t make it through five innings, but Colby got the win in his start.

3. Left fielder Yanni Thanopoulos ’17 (Amherst): The sophomore is building on a very productive freshman year that saw him get on-base at .375 clip and steal 13 bases. Now after hitting only one extra base hit in 2014, Thanopoulos has two home runs and six extra-base hits total to date. On Wednesday in Amherst’s tuneup game against Bates, he went 2-4 and stole two bags to confirm that he is still very much a threat on the base paths. Mike Odenwaelder ’16 is going to continue to steal the headlines, but Thanopoulos has proven that there are two very capable outfielders with four syllable last names in the Jeffs outfield.

Predictions

Middlebury (0-9, 0-3) at Amherst (7-6, 0-0). Games played at Auburn High

Friday 7:00 PM: Eric Truss ’15 vs. John Cook ’15. Saturday 3:00 PM: Cooper Byrne ’15 vs. Keenan Szulik ’16. Robert Erickson ’18 vs. Jackson Volle ’17.

Not too much to say here. Hard to pick in favor of the Panthers until we see them win a game. Truss against Cook is a clear mismatch in the first game, but in the other two the Panthers will have a shot. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 is a game decision for this one. Amherst has looked a little shaky so far, and their 10-9 win over Bates wasn’t too reassuring. They committed four errors (three by their middle infielders) to allow five unearned runs to score. They can overcome those types of errors against Middlebury.

Amherst sweeps series.

Colby (9-3, 0-0) at Trinity (8-5, 0-0)

Friday 3:00 PM: Scott Goldberg ’15 vs. Sean Meekins ’15. Saturday 12:00 PM: Greg Ladd ’15 vs. Jed Robinson ’16. Saturday 2:30 PM: TBD vs. Chris Speer ’17

Two teams who we have not heard too much from to this point are certainly feeling that they have a chance at the playoffs in the East. The rotation for the Bantams has been amazing with the four pitchers with the most innings pitched all having an ERA below 1.00. The bullpen has been much more of an adventure which has held the Bantams back a little bit. Meekins and Robinson have matured into a very good duo. For the Mules, Goldberg and Ladd are missing their running mate Soren Hanson ’16 who was injured earlier in the year.

The weakness of both teams is their offense so expect a low scoring series. In the end, the loss of Hanson for Colby swings things just enough for the Bantams who will win their first NESCAC series since 2013.

Trinity wins two of three

Bates (5-5, 0-0) at Bowdoin (6-10, 1-2): Games played at Franklin Pierce.

Sunday 1:00 PM: TBD vs. Henry Van Zant ’15. Sunday 3:30 PM: TBD vs. Harry Ridge ’16

The final game of this series is being postponed for later which might benefit Bates in the short run but Bowdoin in the long run. The Bates staff is still very unsettled with a bunch of arms still clamoring for innings. Expect a lot of different pitchers to throw multiple innings as manager Mike Leonard will not allow the Bowdoin hitters to see pitchers multiple times. In the long run, Van Zant can now start two of the games in this series for Bowdoin depending on when the final game is rescheduled for.

Winning at least one game is a must for Bowdoin to stay near .500 in conference. Bates must be itching to play this weekend after only playing four games since February 21. These are two very familiar foes who have to travel to an unfamiliar locale in Franklin Pierce.

Teams split the doubleheader

Series of the Weekend: Williams (6-5, 3-0) at Wesleyan (9-4, 0-0)

Friday 4:00 PM: Thomas Murphy ’15 vs. Nick Cooney ’15. Saturday 1:00 PM: Luke Rodino ’17 vs. Gavin Pittore ’16. Saturday 3:30 PM Dan Smith ’16 vs. Sam Elias ’15.

All three games will be played in Middletown because there is still some snow in Williamstown, but the change of venue is not a big one as the Saturday doubleheader was already planned for historic Andrus Field.

A good deal of players for Wesleyan have yet to hit their stride. Neither Cooney nor Pittore boast a spectacular ERA, but some of that is because of the caliber of teams they pitched against earlier in the year. Meanwhile Donnie Cimino ’15 has not looked like his usual self in his first baseball action since breaking his jaw last summer. He should get back on track as he gets more at-bats. That a good deal of Wesleyan stars are not playing great but the team is still playing well is not a surprise given the depth of talent. Remember too that a good deal of this team played some high level baseball this summer in the Cape Cod league and beyond.

Williams feels confident after managing to sweep Middlebury, but they needed a walk-off win in the first game to make it happen. As mentioned in our season preview, the Eph hitters were shut down against Wesleyan in 2014. A repeat of that spells doom for them. While Jack Roberts ’17 is smoking the ball, Jack Cloud ’17 and Luke Pierce ’15 are both mired in slumps that are keeping the Williams offense from working on all cylinders.

Something tells me that Wesleyan is ready to show the NESCAC just how good they are going to be this weekend. The Ephs will play well, but their best chance of winning is Murphy throwing a gem on Friday. Against a lineup as deep as Wesleyan’s that is very difficult.

Wesleyan sweeps series

Baseball Starting Nine: What You Have Missed Thus Far

Baseball returns to New England this coming weekend. Get ready. (Courtesy of Tufts University)
Baseball returns to New England this coming weekend. Get ready. (Courtesy of Tufts University)

Been too busy watching basketball and avoiding the snow to remember that NESCAC baseball is in full swing at this point? You certainly were not alone. It has been easy to lose sight of everything going on down south, but we kept close tabs for you. With the NESCAC conference season starting Friday, get ready for our season predictions and other analysis coming later this week. In the meantime, here are nine things you need to know about.

1. Wesleyan has experience for days: A quick perusal of the Wesleyan statistics tells us very clearly that freshmen are not going to see much playing time. Through twelve games, the only stats accrued by freshmen are four at-bats. Besides that a returning player has played every pitch and at-bat. That ability to have exclusively upperclassmen separates the Cardinals from every other team that has to rely on some freshmen to fill crucial roles. The returning champions have every reason to be confident.

2. Cardinals have impressed: Sticking with the defending champions for our second point. As we mentioned in our season preview, Wesleyan played a challenging spring trip schedule, and overall they showed they belong with the best. Their 8-4 victory over #7 Cal Lutheran was a high water mark that brought them to 5-0 for the season. Ace Nick Cooney ’15 started and won that game for Wesleyan. Wesleyan stumbled a bit near the end of the trip and is now 8-4, but they still are the most impressive team to this point. Guy Davidson ’16 has a slashline of .395/.477/.684 to lead the offense. Wesleyan probably hasn’t hit their stride yet, and they are already pretty scary looking.

3. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 is bashing baseballs: The return of Sinnickson to the diamond is a big reason why there is a sliver of hope around the Middlebury team, and he wasted no time making an impact. In the Panthers opening doubleheader Saturday, Sinnickson went 5-9 and hit THREE home runs. Then he hit another in the Panthers first game on Sunday to tie for the league lead after only three games. The team’s pitching against him probably had no idea who he was and he likely saw some fat fastballs that he was able to eat up, but still, not many players in the NESCAC can do hit four homers in three games. To take a year off from baseball and come back hitting like that is incredible and shows the type of athlete he is.

4. Bowdoin and Trinity struggled: The two East Division teams both have their sights set on returning to the playoffs, but they need to improve on their play quickly. Bowdoin went 5-8 on their Florida trip while the Bantams went 7-5. The Bowdoin staff saw nobody pitch well and the team had a 5.58 ERA. The front of the rotation guys like Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Harry Ridge ’16 pitched decently while Henry Van Zant ’15 started only one game. Meanwhile Trinity’s problem of hitting for no power carried over to this season. As a team the Bantams slugged .357 in their 12 games and had nobody hit a single home run. The good news is that their top two pitchers Sean Meekins ’15 and Jed Robinson ’16 looked fantastic.

https://twitter.com/TrinityBaseball/status/579722627373240320

5. Tommy O’Hara ’18 big for Tufts: The weakness of Tufts is their lineup, but O’Hara looks like he is going to solve a good deal of that problem single-handedly. The freshman third baseman was Tufts’ best hitter on their trip to Virginia and North Carolina. He had a ridiculous .564 OBP in 42 at-bats. With a 1:1 K:BB ratio, he should be able to carry over that type of hitting to the conference season. Don’t expect him to finish with an OBP above .500, but the Illinois native will be a huge bat in the middle of the Tufts lineup that appeared a bat or two away from being elite before the season started.

6. Amherst pitching is unsettled: The big reason why the Jeffs went only 6-6 on their trip was a pitching staff that saw a lot of players auditioning for a starting role. Six different pitchers started games for the Jeffs, and John Cook ’15 started only one game in part to let others get a chance to show their stuff. Drew Fischer ’18 flashed his massive potential with 15 strikeouts in only 8.2 innings. The problem is that he also walked nine batters. He will have to do a better job of trusting his fielders and not simply trying to strike everybody out. Jackson Volle ’17 had two solid starts and might have won the third rotation start because he appears to be more consistent than the flashy Fischer.

7. Rob DiFranco ’16 emerging for Bates: The transition from reliever to starter is going well for DiFranco so far with two starts and two wins. Granted, the first start he only went two innings. He has allowed only one run in eight innings so far, and he has yet to walk an opposing batter. DiFranco only went five innings in his longest start so far so we have not seen whether he can go deep into games yet, but the early returns are promising. Combined with Will Levangie ’15 thus far, and the Bobcats rotation has been solid.

8. Hamilton sophomores stepping up: Joe Jensen ’15 has been fantastic like you would expect him to be, and the Continentals are hitting better behind as well. Chris Collins ’17, Kenny Collins ’17, Ryan Wolfsberg ’17, and Andrew Haser ’17 are all hitting .333 or better. Haser in particular has been impressive after having an OBP below .300 in 2014. Having this core group of sophomores be consistent threats in the lineup makes Hamilton a much more dangerous team to pitch against. The Continentals will get the chance to see whether it stands up against Wesleyan this weekend.

9. Remember the sample size caveat: Do not get carried away with all the results so far. Statistics tells us that through random probability some players will get hot  A lot of things are going to change as we go forward. When assessing the worth of early season statistics, keep in mind Bayes’ theorem. While the idea is sort of complicated, the idea is lend more weight to events that confirm what we thought already and give pause to events that contradict what we thought. So for example, we can trust that Jensen hitting above .500 is not a fluke because we knew already that he was really freaking good at baseball.

Bantams Trying to Bolt Back to the Playoffs: Trinity Baseball Season Preview

Jed Robinson '15 and the Bantams have high expectations for 2015. (Courtesy of BantamSports)
Jed Robinson ’16 and the Bantams have high expectations for 2015. (Courtesy of BantamSports)

2014 Record: 16-17 (4-8, Fifth in the NESCAC East)

Postseason Outcome: Missed NESCAC Playoffs

Returning Starters: 10 (9 Position Players, 1 Starting Pitcher)

Projected Starting Lineup (Stats are from 2014)

2B Matt Mortimer ’16 (.294/.360/.353, 0 HR, 9 RBI)
RF Scott Huley ’15 (.236/.331/.330, 0 HR, 12 RBI)
3B Daniel Pidgeon ’15 (.300/.374/.364, 0 HR, 15 RBI)
1B Bryan Wolfe ’15 (.317/.430/.446, 2 HR, 18 RBI)
C Scott Cullinane ’16 (.263/..396/.395, 0 HR, 4 RBI)
DH Carson Kenney ’15 (.259/.310/.296, 0 HR, 5 RBI)
CF Ryan Vultaggio ’18
SS Adam Moossmann ’15 (.180/.276/.180, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
LF Evan Abraham ’15 (.183/.306/.183, 0 HR, 8 RBI)

RHP Sean Meekins ’15 (1-4, 3.43 ERA,  8.92 K/9, 39.1 IP)
LHP Jed Robinson ’16 (5-2, 3.48 ERA, 7.19 K/9, 41.1 IP)
LHP Chris Speer ’17 (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 2.25 K/9, 4.0 IP)

Offensive Overview:

Literally every single position player who got at-bats last season is back this season, and the Bantams are hoping that those players can make a massive improvement on their performance from a season ago. Indeed, they have to because this offense sputtered and was one of the worst in the NESCAC last season. The only thing that this group did well was draw walks. Besides that they didn’t do much. They didn’t hit for a great average or for much power. They only stole twice in conference games so opposing pitchers always felt comfortable, something that is a huge advantage. The bottom of the lineup contributed nothing. Wolfe was one of the bright spots, but this unit needs to be much better all around. Manager Bryan Adamski will be flexible in getting a lot of different guys at-bats as he continues to search for his best starting group so don’t be surprised if the lineup ends up very different than the one listed above when conference play rolls around.

Defensive Overview:

The Bantams need to be more sure-handed this year. They finished with the second lowest fielding percentage in the NESCAC, ahead of only Hamilton. The correlation between errors committed and finish in the standings is actually surprisingly closely correlated. The left side of the infield, Moossmann and Pidgeon, combined for 13 errors on the season. Both of them had fielding percentages barely above .900. One area where Trinity did do decently was defending the running game. Opponents stole 10 bags against them in conference play which ties them with Amherst for the fourth-lowest amount in the NESCAC.

Pitching Overview:

Meekins and Robinson are pretty firmly entrenched as the top two starters. Meekins struggled a little in conference play in part because of control problems. Robinson was not originally a regular part of the weekend rotation, but he pitched his way into this spot. His seven inning, two run start against Wesleyan in an end of season non-conference game  was one of the bright spots for the Bantams last season. Behind those two, things are pretty wide open. Speer is the frontrunner right now based on the big strides he has taken in the offseason, but expect him to have a short leash given his limited experience. The positive side is that Adamski is a pitching coach first and he had great staffs at Amherst. He could have possibly brought in an impact freshman arm who will be able to make an instant impact for the Bantams.

Storylines to Watch

1. Was last year a fluke?

To call last year a disappointment for Trinity baseball would be somewhat of an understatement.  Go watch this video of players and Adamski before the 2014 season began talking about their hopes for last year. You hear talk of winning the NESCAC as if it’s almost a given. Obviously a lot of coaches and teams emphasize setting high goals, but I don’t think anyone at Trinity was expecting to finish the season below .500. Their 4-8 NESCAC record is the worst for the Bantams since at least 2000 (there aren’t available records for further back). For Adamski, now in his second season, he needs to make large tangible gains on the playing field in order to show that 2014 was a blip for the Bantams. Trinity is considered a baseball powerhouse, and they have dipped before only to come back just as strong. Adamski has to show that last season was a brief though severe dip.

2. Where does the beef come from?

And by beef we mean raw power. The Bantams finished dead last in slugging percentage last season. In their 12 NESCAC games, they had an abysmal .268 mark. They didn’t hit a single home run in conference, and Wolfe was the only player to hit one all season. The fact that Trinity is somewhat known for their power hitters makes the outage last season all the more confusing. Guys like Pidgeon and Cullinane have to provide some additional pop. Obviously the NESCAC isn’t the big leagues where guys are about to go yard on the regular, but two home runs for an entire team all season is pathetic. For comparison’s sake, Nate Pajka ’15 has four home runs THIS SEASON for Bates. Go look it up.

3. Can they win close games?

We are going to beat this to death over the next couple of weeks, but that second spot in the East really looks like it is there for the taking. Still, this is going to be an uphill battle for the Bantams. Last season, all four of their conference victories came by one run. Yes, they lost a few close games as well, but they were closer to going 2-10 than 6-6. They need to continue to find ways to win close games. Their lack of many power hitters means they are unlikely to blow many teams out, but if they get on-base then they might be able to manufacture runs and pull out some victories.

Biggest Series: April 3-4, home against Colby

Trinity has their two home conference series in back-to-back weekends. They play Colby in this one and then Tufts a week later. The Bantams need to jump all over the Mules and have some confidence before playing the Jumbos a week later. The talent is there for a quick rebound in Hartford, and a key for them is going to be believing that they are capable of it. Last season they didn’t win a single one of their conference series, so notching one early will go a long way.

NCAA Sweet 16 Preview: Bates College vs. Trinity College

Game Information: Bates (21-6) vs. Trinity (22-6)

Friday, March 13, 5:30 PM

Staake Gymnasium, Babson Park, MA

Live Stats  Video

In other words, there is work to be done.

It’s not unheard of for two NESCAC teams to be meeting this late into the NCAA Tournament. As a matter of fact, it happened just one year ago when Amherst and Williams duked it out in the national semifinals. What is unusual, though, is to see Bates and Trinity, two schools not known for their basketball pedigree, still alive and starting to believe that a National Championship isn’t that far-fetched of an idea.

Let’s take a moment and think about where these two teams came from. You might have heard already, but Bates College is playing in its first-ever NCAA D-III Tournament, which has brought Bates alums out of the woodwork to support the current team.

“I’ve heard from players from the 1950s right up to last season. You win a few games and people become very aware of your basketball program.” – Bates Coach Jon Furbush to the Portland Press Herald,

Also, consider this: Bates was 1-9 in the NESCAC last year, the worst record in the league. Now, just over a year later, they are one win away from being the last NESCAC team standing. And when they look back on this season, there will be plenty of highlights from their NCAA Tournament run to remember. Bates’ players hope to add a few more before it is all said and done.

On the other side, Trinity had some experience with NCAA Tourney basketball before the season began. The only problem was that none of that experience came from the players. Head Coach James Cosgrove led Adelphi University to the D-II Tournament four times and Endicott to the D-III Tournament once as head coach. Assistant Coach Tyler Simms played on back-to-back NCAA Tournament teams at Trinity in 2007 and 2008, but never advanced past the first round. Now, the Bantams’ players have almost as much NCAA Tournament experience as their coaching staff.

Last time they met: Jan. 16 at Trinity. Trinity 66 – Bates 59

From 1-5, including #21 Alex Conaway '15, Trinity can defend with the best of them. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
From 1-5, including #21 Alex Conaway ’15, Trinity can defend with the best of them. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

In a game that started a miniature two-game skid for the Bobcats that seems to have been the turning point for Bates, Trinity dominated the first half and held on for a six-point lead at home. It was an off shooting night for Bates’ two top scorers, Graham Safford ’15 and Mike Boornazian ’16 (6-21, 28.6 percent, combined). Meanwhile, Trinity spread the wealth, per usual, with three players in double figures, and played its patented shutdown defense.

“Trinity has proven all season long what a great defensive team they are and against us was no exception. They did a good job scouting us and identifying some of our tendencies, but we also didn’t shoot the ball anywhere near the level we’re capable of.” – Mike Boornazian

The game was incredibly evenly-matched statistically. The only differences came in the rebounding and free throw shooting departments, both of which Trinity dominated. The Bants outrebounded Bates 42-32, and hit 20-26 free throws, compared to 11-14 for the Bobcats.

A last bit of Trinity-Bates history to nibble on. Trinity leads the all-time series 31-13, dating back to 1947. The last Bobcat victory came in February 2013.

Storylines to Watch

1. Have student fan bus, will travel

Alumni Gym in Lewiston, ME gets pretty crazy sometimes for men’s basketball games. The Staake Gymnasium is going to feel a lot like Alumni on Friday night. The tiny Babson home court (650 seats, 1,000 capacity) will provide the ideal setting for the scores (dare I say, hundreds?) of Bobcats fans who will be traveling down via a school-organized fan bus. The bus seats 55 students, and the College sold an additional 50 for students who wanted to organize their own transportation. Trinity, meanwhile, goes on spring break starting on Friday, and many students have already taken off to enjoy better weather elsewhere.

Adding to the Bobcats’ home court advantage, potentially, is that Bates has already won two games at Staake, to open the season, at the Babson Invitational, including a three-point victory over the host Beavers.

“It’ll definitely be nice to get back on the court that got us off to a 2-0 start earlier this year. We all really liked the atmosphere that the gym provided, and we have a lot of Bates supporters in the area, as well as people who will be making the trip down.  It’s going to be a fun time and always nice knowing we have Bobcat Country supporting us.” – Mike Boornazian

Trinity center Georgios Papadeas ’15 doesn’t see Babson Park as presenting a home court advantage for Bates.

“I don’t believe playing in Babson gives Bates an advantage. They didn’t win against us at that court so I believe that those two wins are irrelevant to Friday’s game.” – Georgios Papadeas

2. Frontcourt physicality

There were 42 fouls committed the last time these two squads competed, 25 by Bates. Max Eaton ’17 even earned four in just 13 minutes! Bates alone has committed 40 fouls in their two NCAA Tournament games. Both Delpeche brothers fouled out late against St. Vincent in the first round. For Trinity, they’ve faced some foul trouble in the Tournament but have managed to keep everybody on the floor. The personal foul numbers will be important to monitor in this one, though, as both teams feature tough front courts.

“I think both teams are very talented in that department.  Trinity has an impressive front court, but I also think Malc and Marc [Delpeche] have consistently proven that they are two of the best big men in the conference. It’s going to be a great battle.” – Mike Boornazian

Statistically, both teams are similar in blocks per game (Trinity, 3.9; Bates, 3.3) and rebounds per game (Trinity 39.0; Bates, 38.4), but the Bantams had a significant margin in rebounding margin (7.3, compared to 4.9 for Bates). Nevertheless, Trinity recognizes the dangerousness of the Bates big men.

“The twins are a dynamic combo. I respect their toughness. From our part we will try to be physical and block them out. They are long and athletic and extremely dangerous. We can’t let them get going.” – Georgios Papadeas

Forward Mike Newton ’15 has a more aesthetic view of what makes the Delpeche duo so formidable.

“The best part is that  they aren’t scared to bang on anyone.” – Mike Newton

When you get this look from Marcus Delpeche '17, you know that you're in trouble. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)
When you get this look from Marcus Delpeche ’17, you know that you’re in trouble. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)

That kind of protection at the rim allows Billy Selmon ’15 to pressure ball handlers on the perimeter and changes the offensive attack.

3. The efficiency of Bates’ guards

Even though Safford was an NbN All-NESCAC First Teamer and both he and Boornazian are 1,000 point scorers, no one would mistake the pair for a couple of Luke Westmans. Of NESCAC players that attempted at least 12.5 field goals per game (Safford has attempted exactly 12.56 FG per game, Boornazian approximately 12.7), Safford was the only player under 40 percent from the field, and Boornazian ranks fourth out of sixth. They’re both great players and among my first choices if I need to take a shot to win the game, but I think their below average shooting percentages will be particularly hurtful in this game where I don’t anticipate the Delpeches, Newton and Eaton grabbing many O boards.

4. The Trinity offense with Andrew Hurd ’16 on the court

Jaquann Starks '15 is comfortable with the ball in his hands, but Trinity's O runs smoother with Starks at the two-guard. (Courtesy of Hartford Courant/Peter Casolino).
Jaquann Starks ’16 is comfortable with the ball in his hands, but Trinity’s O runs smoother with Starks at the two-guard. (Courtesy of Hartford Courant/Peter Casolino).

Point guard Jaquann Starks ’16 gets all the press, but the Trinity offense is actually better when Hurd handles the ball and Starks shifts to the two-guard. I wish I had the advanced statistics to back up that claim, but keep an eye on this backcourt combination tonight and see for yourself. Starks isn’t much of a distributor and is probably Trinity’s best three point shooter. Hurd also brings some underestimated pesky defense to the floor with him, and can frustrate the opposing team’s point man. He gives up quite a bit of size and strength to Safford, though, so Hurd may be better suited to keep Selmon from making an impact on offense.  For Selmon’s part, he will be blanketing Starks all day, which means that the pressure is on Hurd to make an impact offensively.

5. Late game execution

Bates is looking for a shot at redemption against Trinity. (Courtesy of Portland Press Herald/Gabe Souza)
The Bobcats are looking for a shot at redemption against Trinity. (Courtesy of Portland Press Herald/Gabe Souza)

I would be shocked if this game turned into a blowout. Therefore, it will come down to which team executes better in crunch time, and who makes their free throws. Neither team was fantastic hitting free throws this season, but Trinity held a slight edge. When it comes to closing out ball games, the general perception is that Bates has the advantage because of the heroics of Safford and Boornazian. Sometimes nerves get in the way when players are unsure of what to do as the seconds tick away. That doesn’t happen with Safford.

“It’s amazing. There are times when I want to make a call in the game, and he’s bringing the ball up and before I even say it, he calls it. … He’s absolutely another coach on the floor. … I think what he does from a sheer leadership standpoint is the reason why we’re successful.” – Bates Head Coach John Furbush to the Sun Journal.

However, of the Bantams’ 22 wins, 10 have come by six points or less. And I don’t think that is because Trinity isn’t dominant. I think it’s because they enjoy playing in close games. When the going gets tough, the defense gets tougher, and teams have a brutal time getting buckets. Additionally, if Bates wants to put its best free throw shooting team on the floor, they’d have to take off a lot of the starters. Safford, is the only starter for Bates that shot over 80 percent from the stripe. Meanwhile, Trinity can put Starks (89.5 percent), Hurd (88.9 percent), Chris Turnbull ’17 (85.7 percent), Papadeas (78.1 percent) and Rick Naylor ’16 (77.8 percent) or Shay Ajayi ’16 (71.3 percent) on the court and not give up too much defensively.

Trinity X-Factor: Ed Ogundeko ’17

It had to be a big guy, right? Ogundeko was playing like a grown man down the stretch this season, putting up huge rebounding numbers and a couple of nice offensive performances despite not playing much more than 20 minutes per game. In the NCAA Tournament Ogundeko has played 24 minutes total. Coach Cosgrove has basically relied on his starting five plus Hurd to win ball games. But, in a matchup where both front lines go deep and I could foresee a flurry of fouls on either side, I think the time is ripe for Ogundeko to step back up. I don’t need big scoring out of him, I just need him to stop whichever Delpeche is feeling it at the time.

Bates X-Factor: Adam Philpott ’15

For Bates, it’s no secret that the starting five does most of the heavy lifting, but Philpott does a lot of the little things that make a team go. He can do a little bit of everything offensively, and fits right in with Coach Jon Furbush’s feisty defense. Boornazian called Philpott the best sixth man in the NESCAC. He’ll have to play like it to best the Bantams on Friday.

“For me embracing the role of sixth man with the talent that we have was very easy. … [Graham Safford’s and Mike Boornazian’s] ability to beat their defender and get into the lane creates a lot of open opportunities for me on the perimeter and it’s my job to knock them down.” – Adam Philpott

Prediction:

Before we go any further, let me say a big congratulations to both teams for making this unexpected run to the Sweet 16. That being said, I don’t think either squad would be content with calling it quits now. Both squads believe that they can win a national title for the first time in school history. And these have to be two of the toughest, grittiest teams in all of Division-III, which should make for some must-watch TV.

How is this one going to play out? Expect it to be back-and-forth all day. If Bates can grab some offensive rebounds that will lead to some easy buckets and make up for some of the guards’ missed jumpers. I don’t expect Trinity to shoot much better, though. This one could be ugly.

Don’t expect the crowd noise to get into the Bantams’ heads too much.

“As athletes though we have trained to focus on the game and block  all other factors that don’t contribute to the game.” – Georgios Papadeas

I really don’t think, even down the stretch, that 100-plus screaming Bobcats fans will change the outcome of this game. Whether the crowd is cheering for or against you, there are bound to be jitters when you’re in a single possession game as the clock ticks down.

All right, enough preamble. I’ve gone back and forth on this game all day, so let me just make a pick and stick to it. I’m going with the Bantams, partly because they’ve beaten Bates before, partly because they’ve given up just 51.0 points per contest in the NCAA Tournament. Partly because, as Sean Meekins reported, Bates basketball wears seat belts on the bus. I jest, of course. Everyone should wear seat belts all the time.

So there it is. We’ve picked against Bates twice now, and gotten it wrong both times. We’ve also picked in favor of Trinity, and gotten it right both times. Something’s gotta give.

Final Line: Trinity 59 – Bates 52