Amherst – Page 11 – Nothing But NESCAC

Power Rankings Part 3- The West Playoff Teams

We wrap up the Power Ranks with the two West playoff teams. Same format as the East, and the numbers coincide to their overall ranking this week. We will have our predictions for the weekend up tomorrow morning so make sure to check back in.

3. Amherst (28-7, 9-3)

Why They’ll Win: Amherst might be the only team who could give Tufts a running in the “most sheer talent” category. Their lineup is filled with dangerous hitters, most notably ace leadoff hitter and shortstop Taiki Kasuga ‘14, who comes into the playoffs batting .366, and Mike Odenwaelder ‘16, the Miguel Cabrera of this NESCAC season. Odenwaelder comes into the playoffs at least in the top three of every major offensive category known to man, and leading in batting average and slugging percentage, at .417 and .658 respectively. As if that wasn’t enough, Odenwaelder also sports a 1.74 ERA out of the bullpen. When you combine these offensive threats with the three-headed beast in the rotation of Dylan Driscoll ‘14, John Cook ‘15 and Quinn Saunders-Kolburg ‘14, Amherst looks as deep as any team except maybe Tufts.

Why They’ll Lose: The blueprint for beating Amherst was shown two weekends back when Wesleyan took two out of three from the Jeffs. In that series, Wesleyan was able to get to Driscoll early in game one, making the other matchups more even. Each game in the series was close, decided by 2 runs or less, and Wesleyan’s propensity for clutch hitting helped them in the first two games, one of which went 9 innings. The final game of the series was a classic, going 11 innings, with Odenwaelder hitting a two run homer to end it. If teams follow this formula, and scrape out a win against Driscoll, than either of the other matchups in the double-elimination weekend could come out against Amherst’s favor. By the way, Driscoll has been another pitcher in NESCAC play, with a below average 4.10 ERA.

Sleeper-Catcher Connor Gunn ‘16: As his last name implies, Gunn is a superb defensive catcher, who certainly deserves some credit for the success of Amherst’s pitching this season. While his overall offensive statistics are not eye-popping, he has shifted into another gear in NESCAC play, batting at .349 with a .899 OPS. This success has firmly planted him in the fifth spot in the lineup, behind season-long sluggers Odenwaelder and outfielder Alex Hero ’14. This middle of the order probably constitutes the best in NESCAC, and if Gunn can continue to constitute the back end of that threat, Amherst is probably pretty well set to repeat their tournament success from last year.

2. Wesleyan (24-10, 10-2)

Why They’ll Win: Wesleyan’s confidence is at an all-time high right now after posting a league best 10-2 record in NESCAC play, including taking two out of three from Amherst on the weekend of April 25. While Wesleyan certainly has the all around balance of any great NESCAC team, it’s their offense that carries them. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ‘15 has been solid all season, but in league play he has been unbelievable, batting .422 with a ridiculous .711 slugging percentage. Jonathon Dennett ‘15 and Guy Davidson ‘15, both of whom also rank in the top ten in NESCAC for RBI, flank him in the lineup. When you pair these sluggers with table setters like Andrew Yin ’15 and Donnie Cimino ’15, it makes for a potent lineup that any pitching staff would struggle to contain.

Why They’ll Lose: Wesleyan certainly has chinks in their armor that could cost them in this weekend. Although their pitching has stepped up to the plate (pardon the pun) in NESCAC play, posting a 2.10 ERA, for the season they come in with a mediocre 3.72, pointing to early inconsistencies in the rotation. Their main starting pitchers, Nick Cooney ‘15, Jeff Blout ’14 and Gavin Pittore ‘16, have all been solid, but can struggle with their control at times, leading to extra base runners. And against a well-oiled machine like Amherst or Tufts this weekend, mistakes like that are not often forgiven.

Sleeper- Relief pitcher Peter Rantz ‘16: If Wesleyan does have shaky performances from any of those three key starters, Rantz will be crucial in righting the ship, and giving the offense a chance to slug their way back into the game. Rantz was putting together a nice year out of the pen, with a 3.06 ERA, but has struggled mightily in NESCAC play. At his best, he is a guy who can relieve a struggling starter in the third inning and keep them in the game. It is likely this weekend Wesleyan will need to have that option.

Power Rankings April 18

1. Tufts (20-2, 3-1)

Not much has changed since we last put out power rankings, other than Queen Elsa reclaiming her icy hold on the NESCAC lands. Tufts is still dominating the league with their 70’s Orioles-like pitching staff, although Trinity did hand them their first NESCAC loss on Saturday in a 8-7 nail biter that took 9 innings. There does appear to be a chink in Tuft’s armor, however. They are only hitting .212 in NESCAC play, good for ninth in the league. This is probably just a slump, and their pitching is making up for it, but if it’s a bigger issue, it could set the Jumbos train off the tracks.

2. Wesleyan (18-5, 6-0)

In our previous power rankings, we put Amherst over Wesleyan, and clearly Wesleyan listened. They are the only undefeated team in league play, sitting at 6-0. Although it is true that their wins are over Williams and Middlebury, two struggling teams, the level of dominance that they’ve asserted cannot be ignored. The weekend of April 25 pits Wesleyan against Amherst, in a series that should settle the West supremacy debate, at least until the playoffs.

3. Amherst (18-5, 4-1)

Much like Wesleyan, Amherst has been playing very well, both before league play and in NESCAC. The Lord Jeffs are 4-1, the only blemish being the loss to Williams that puts them below Wesleyan in these rankings. Again, the Jeffs face off against Wesleyan on the 25, a series that is looking more and more like something ESPN should cover, based on it’s importance to the league.

4. Colby (13-6, 4-2)

The teams behind Tufts were locked in a tight battle for second for most of the season, but Colby has separated themselves from the pack with a strong showing in NESCAC play. The Mules are 4-2, including an impressive series win over Bowdoin last week. Colby doesn’t have many stars, but they are solid and play well as a team, which, as numerous sports movies can tell us, is usually more effective.

5. Bowdoin (13-9-1, 4-5)

While Colby has separated themselves with strong NESCAC play, Bowdoin has been struggling somewhat, after a strong start. They’ve lost 4 of 6, losing series to rivals Colby and Bates. The problems lie mainly in a struggling offense, which is performing far below preseason expectations. Like Tufts, Bowdoin’s offensive struggles could just be a slump, but it will have to end soon, as their pitching is not good enough to carry them through a prolonged drought.

6. Bates (11-10, 2-2)

Bates has been one of the more consistent teams throughout the year, sitting at 11-10 and 2-2 in NESCAC. Their team stats have remained remarkably the same, avoiding some of the offensive struggles that have plagued other teams. However, Bates’ consistency does not add up to enough talent for them to compete in the tough Eastern division.

7. Hamilton (8-9, 1-4)

Like the middle of the Eastern pack, the bottom of the West is a close race, although there is not quite as much talent. Although Hamilton is only 1-4 in the league, their overall “success” puts them barely above Middlebury and Williams. However, Middlebury seems to have found something of a rhythm, and if those two trends continue, Hamilton could easily sink to the bottom.

8. Trinity (9-14, 3-6)

This has been a tough year for Trinity, who came in to the year with very high expectations. First year coach Brian Adamski’s squad has struggled in most categories, translating to a last place ranking in the East. However, they were able to steal a game in the Tufts series, and if they can sweep their upcoming series’ against Bates, a playoff push could still be in the cards if everything breaks right.

9. Williams (7-11, 2-7)

Williams and Middlebury have become almost interchangeable at the bottom of the east, but they are trending in different directions. Williams has lost 4 in a row, and the pitching staff that has held them back all season has not improved in any measurable way.

10. Middlebury (4-12, 2-7)

The Panthers, on the other hand, seem to have found some small measure of rhythm in their season. They took two of three from Hamilton last weekend, and seem to be gaining confidence as the young players get more experience. A strong showing this coming weekend against Amherst, coupled with continued poor play from Williams and Hamilton, could catapult the Panthers out of the cellar and finally into the sun.

Stock Report 4/7

Stock Up:

Third Baseman Kevin Davis ’14 (Bates) – Davis hit clean up all weekend against Bowdoin, and rarely does anyone fit the bill as perfectly as the 6’3” slugger did in the first game of Sunday’s doubleheader. Davis smacked two doubles and a home run en route to seven RBIs in a 13-7 win. On the weekend, Davis went 8-14 with 10 RBI and three doubles. Davis raised his average by 51 points and more than doubled his RBI total to 19, second in the NESCAC.

Middlebury’s Pitching – The Panthers can take away some positives from this weekend’s series at Wesleyan despite the sweep. After looking lost against Williams, it took a shutout from Jeff Blout ’14 in the first game of the Saturday doubleheader and a suicide squeeze in the bottom of the ninth in the second match up from Nick Miceli’17 for the Cardinals to finish off Middlebury. The pitching and defense improved drastically for the Panthers. While ace Eric Truss ’15 still hasn’t found his 2013 form (7 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 0 K on Friday), Middlebury held Wesleyan to five runs (four earned) in the last two games of the series and a .273 average while the Cardinals have hit .323 overall on the season. Cooper Byrne ’15 was great in the seven-inning game (CG, 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 K) and Logan Mobley ’15 (6IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 0 K) worked his way out of some jams to throw a strong start in the second game. If the Panthers can get the bats going they might just have an effect on the race for the West crown.

Cooper Byrne '15 tossed his second consecutive complete game on Saturday. — Cooper Byrne ’15 tossed his second consecutive complete game on Saturday.

Startin Pitcher John Cook ’15 (Amherst) – Because the third game of the Amherst-Hamilton series was postponed last weekend, Amherst’s number three got his first chance in a league game against rival Williams and was dominant. Cook has huge shoes to fill with older brother and current assistant coach Bob Cook ’13 having departed, and after an up-and-down first couple games the 6’4” hurler put it together and earned his first win on the season. Cook’s line was 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K.

Stock Down:

Second Baseman Jack Roberts ’17 (Williams) – The lefty took the league by storm with his early performance, especially a 6-16 series against Middlebury, but flailed to an 0-12 weekend against the Lord Jeffs, including three strikeouts in the series finale, dropping his average to a still-respectable .290. Roberts is still a dependable hitter with a bright future and the ability to use all fields, but these growing pains are to be expected for any first-year, and we ought to be willing to give him a pass against a vaunted Amherst rotation.

Bowdoin – The Polar Bears get singled out here partially because we talked about Trinity in this column last week and their disastrous fall continued with a 1-2 weekend against Colby in Hartford (although the Bantams were playing as the road team). Bowdoin, meanwhile, now appears to be part of a three-team race for who will join Tufts in the NESCAC playoffs. Perhaps it’s too early to anoint the Jumbos with the divisional crown because they’ve only managed to play one league game, but they’ve looked great out-of-conference. So the second spot will fall to either Bates, Bowdoin or Colby, barring a storming comeback from Trinity, and the Polar Bears set themselves back by losing the series to their in-state rivals. Bowdoin (3-3) and Colby (2-1) still have three games with Tufts ahead, Bates (2-2) has two with the Jumbos and a series on the road against a desperate Trinity team this weekend, while the Mules still need to play both Bowdoin and Bates. CBB action now takes on a lot of meaning this season.

Williams Pitching – Sorry, Ephs fans, if it feels like I’m picking on you guys. Williams should be happy with taking a victory from Amherst, the class of 2014’s first against the Lord Jeffs, but the fact that the team’s league-worst 8.33 ERA was lowered in a weekend where Williams lost one game 16-6 is a testament to the under-performance of the staff so far. While Middlebury’s staff seems to have, at least for now, turned a corner, the Ephs regressed from last weekend to this one. Of course, opponent matters, and Williams faced potentially the most potent offensive in New England this weekend, but the Ephs won’t be able to compete for a division crown until they can hold teams to four or five runs a game. One bright spot is the performance of righty Thomas Murphy ’15. In two league starts, Murphy has tossed 14 innings and given up just one earned run. A key for Murphy is his 2.57 BB/9 rate. He relies on his defense to get outs for him, and his teammates were good enough to help Murphy get his third win of the year on Saturday.

Stock Report

Every Monday we will recap the weekend’s action by handing out our analysis in the form of a stock report. With the first weekend of action in the books, The ‘CAC regular season is officially underway.

Stock Up

1. Mother Nature- Nobody else had a bigger impact on this weekend’s games. Almost every weekend game was affected somehow with the rain precipitating (pun fully intended) starting times being changed and games shortened, though luckily only three games had to be postponed. Amherst and Hamilton moved the site of their series a good five hour drive south to Yaphank, New York on Long Island. They were unable to play the final game of their three game series, but a tip of the cap to the teams and athletic departments for finding an inventive way to play the other two games. Tufts and Bates only fit in the first game of their series which was moved from Bates to Tufts because of the weather causing Bates’ ‘home opener’ to become a bit of a misnomer. Bowdoin and Trinity managed to fit all three games in, but the final one was shortened to eight innings because of the rain. A glance at the forecast looks promising as this week will be filled with sun and temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The rain this weekend melted a lot of the snow and ice left on fields so by next weekend hopefully every home NESCAC field is ready to go.

2. Amherst- I was expecting Hamilton to steal at least one of their games this weekend (and it’s possible they would have if the third game had been played), but Amherst looked like a very strong team from top to bottom in the two games. Hamilton’s best chance to win was probably the first game with their ace Jjay Lane ’15 on the hill, and they managed to strike in the first against Amherst’s Fred Shepard ’14. After that the lefty Amherst native dominated going seven innings and striking out eight without allowing another run. Shepard has already thrown a no-hitter and is the owner of a not too shabby 0.93 ERA through three starts. The offense got to Lane for two runs in the first inning and added another in the sixth for a final score of 3-1. The second game was not nearly as competitive with Amherst tagging Hamilton’s Cole Dreyfuss ’16 for six runs in the second inning. Andrew Vandini ’16 and Mike Odenwaelder ’16 led the way with three hits each, Dylan Driscoll ’14 went seven scoreless striking out nine, and Amherst’s depth showed a little when leftfielder and number eight hitter Anthony Spina ’17 hit a solo shot in the third. Amherst has the big rivalry weekend coming up with Williams, and they should be confident knowing they are handing the ball to both Shepard and Driscoll again next weekend.

3. Harry Ridge ’16 Starting Pitcher (Bowdoin)- Ridge had stretches when he threw the ball very well last year as a freshman, but he has improved his consistency leaps and bounds through four starts. He doesn’t overpower you with his raw stuff with only 14 strikeouts so far, but Ridge does a great job forcing the issue with hitters, keeping them off balance, and preventing anything from being hit too hard. This weekend he shut down Trinity’s offense for six innings allowing only two hits and no runs as Bowdoin cruised in the first game of their doubleheader. Ridge’s performance has been especially critical because Bowdoin has had their three top starters from last season barely throw in 2014. Oliver Van Zant ’13 graduated, Christian Martin ’14 has yet to throw a pitch, and Henry Van Zant ’15 saw his first action this weekend in relief. His and Erik Jacobsen’s ’15 performance has helped Bowdoin off to a very good start despite all those absences.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury- We knew it was going to be tough sledding for Middlebury because of what they lost from their senior class and then the decision of Hunter Merryman ’15 and Dylan Sinnickson ’15 to not play this season in order to focus on basketball. Still, the Panthers have looked helpless at times so far including this weekend when Williams swept them with ease. Williams has a good offense, but they should not be putting up 18 and 20 runs against NESCAC teams. Middlebury is an extremely young team with only two seniors on the roster, and you have to feel bad but also be impressed with Alex Kelly’s ’14 play so far. The outfielder is hitting for a .422 average at the top of the lineup while also playing great defense in the outfield. Middlebury finished up their Arizona trip at 2-8 and will have to face a loaded Wesleyan team next weekend in Connecticut. It is likely to be a long season for the Panthers, but there are still plenty of positives able to be drawn from it.

2. Scott Huley ’15 Outfielder (Trinity)- A lot was expected out of Huley entering the season as Trinity had to replace multiple starters from last years team, and he has not been up to the task so far. He hasn’t been terrible with a .382 on-base percentage, but his .356 slugging percentage underlies how Trinity has been all season. Since hitting two doubles in Trinity’s second game against Denison, Huley has had only two extra base hits. Trinity as a team has been getting on base at a below average rate of .351, but their slugging percentage of .326 overall is abysmal. Nobody expected Huley to come out and show off explosive power given his frame, but his inability to hit doubles this year means he can’t be the middle of the lineup presence we expected him to be. Also, after pitching 18 innings with a respectable ERA, he is yet to take the mound this season despite Trinity having issues with their pitching. Why Manager Bryan Adamski hasn’t used him is unclear, and Huley’s value has suffered. He is still a player with a lot of talent, but little time to turn it around, just like Trinity as a whole.

3. Jeff Blout ’14 Starting Pitcher (Wesleyan)- Overshadowed by Wesleyan’s overall success thus far has been the disastrous pitching of Blout. His outing this weekend against Mitchell was his best of the season, but it still was far from dominant. While Blout only allowed one run in five innings, he had to pitch around four walks. On the season he has only 12 strikeouts to 11 walks which is an unacceptable ratio. Blout had a top four ERA in the NESCAC last season, and his 7.13 ERA this year is more than three times higher than his 2.06 ERA from 2013. The Wesleyan offense has been scary to pitch against for opposing teams, but the Cardinals are not going to give Amherst a serious challenge for the division crown if their pitching doesn’t pull it together. Blout has to find his stuff again because Wesleyan has nobody else who can replace him. Peter Rantz ’16 and Nick Cooney ’15 have been the most consistent pitchers, but neither of them are aces. Blout is the key for Wesleyan.

NESCAC Season Predictions

Editors Note: The standings below are the composite standings of our staff at Nothing But NESCAC. Each writer made their own predictions independently.

East	Projected Finish (Conference Record)
T-1.* Trinity	9-3
T-1.* Tufts	9-3
3. Bowdoin	7-5
4. Bates	3-9
5. Colby	2-10

West	Projected Finish (Conference Record)
1. Amherst	10-2
2. Wesleyan	8-4
3. Hamilton	7-5
4. Middlebury	3-9
5. Williams	2-10

*Tufts will receive the number one seed from the East Division because the consensus was that Tufts will win their series against Trinity which is the tiebreaker.

Semifinals:

(1) Amherst over (2) Trinity

(1) Tufts over (2) Wesleyan

Finals:

(1) Amherst over (1) Tufts