Tag: Brent Greeley

Divisions Keep Them Separate, But How Do They Stack Up? Baseball Midseason Power Rankings

Right In The Thick of Things: Power Rankings Week 5

I have a love/hate relationship with NESCAC baseball. On one hand, I hate the way the divisions and playoff systems work but love the way it emphasizes head-to-head matchups. As an athlete myself, I hate how fast the spring season goes for these teams that have been preparing together since they stepped on campus in the fall yet I love how quickly these teams are forced to get into the mix. So with that being said, it’s hard to believe that it’s the second week of April and there are two huge weekends of NESCAC divisional play remaining. The season is in full swing, and with it comes some Power Rankings.

  1. Wesleyan 

The only undefeated team in the conference, and although overall records don’t matter in baseball the same way they do in other NESCAC sports, the holder of the best overall record at 13-6, are the Wesleyan Cardinals. Wesleyan started their league campaign off with a 3-game sweep of defending conference finalist Middlebury. The most impressive part of their weekend was how they showcased a variety of ways they can beat you. Mike McCaffrey has begun to prove our preseason hype correct throwing 6 no-hit innings with 10 Ks, combining with Pat Clare for their first no-hitter since 1981. The duo outpitched Middlebury’s Colby Morris (never heard of him) in a 1-0 win to start the series, and then the bats followed it up with two shootout wins in which they put up double digit runs in each game. OF Alex Cappitelli ’20 continued his solid sophomore campaign by leading the team with 4 RBIs on the weekend, but the real story so far for Wesleyan has been their depth through the order. The Cards have 7 guys in their lineup hitting above .300, which is why it should come as no surprise that they lead the NESCAC in hitting with a .305 average. They will definitely be the better team when they travel to New York this weekend for a series with Hamilton and should see their West Division grow larger after a strong start.

  1. Amherst

Amherst followed up their two game sweep of Hamilton with a series win on the road against archrival Williams, putting them at a strong 4-1 in the West Division. The Mammoths are second in the league with a .299 team batting average and lead the league as a pitching staff with a collective 4.18 ERA. They’re more than likely kicking themselves for letting Williams steal Game 2 late, but the Purple and White are in great shape. They do have the toughest schedule remaining in the West with Wesleyan and Middlebury looming, 5 of those 6 games being on the road as well. OF Ariel Kenney ’18 is firmly at the front of the POY conversation with his .431 AVG, to go along with 2 HRs and 10 RBI. 3B Nick Nardone ’19 is also looking to enter that race (.322, 2 HRs, 15 RBI), and the best part for Amherst might be that SS Harry Roberson ’18 (.228 AVG, 16 RBI), has really yet to get going. There might not be a team in the league better equipped for a 3 game series.

  1. Trinity

If you’re the Bantams you definitely have every right to feel slighted with a spot at 3 in these rankings, but I think Amherst’s consistency/every team statistic available gives them the edge. Trinity has opened the season just as they had hoped, taking 2 out of 3 from both Tufts and Bowdoin. In my East Division preview I wrote that the key to Trin’s season would be keeping the poor starting pitching performances to a minimum, but they have yet to do that in the way they would’ve hoped. While they are 3rd in the league with a 4.38 ERA, it is games like their 15-8 loss to Bowdoin that could keep them from reaching the heights they are hoping to find. They caught Bowdoin P Brandon Lopez ’19 on an off night (3.0 IP, 4 R, 5 BB), but P Erik Mohl ’19 couldn’t get out of the 2nd inning (1.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R) and the Polar Bears blitzed the Trinity bullpen for eight runs in the 7th inning alone. This team can flat out rake, but we are yet to see them clicking on all cylinders like they are capable of. Tufts, like the good team they are, were able to hold them to 13 runs over 3 games, but they were able to climb up to 21 over 3 against Bowdoin. They have the firepower, and perhaps more importantly, the strength of schedule—having already seen off Tufts and Bowdoin—to take the East Division and contend for the NESCAC.

  1. Tufts

They lost 2 out of 3 games to a good Trinity team, but that is certainly not a cause for concern. RJ Hall, Brent Greeley, and Spencer Langdon combined to throw 19 IP and allow 3 runs, erasing any doubt over the turnover in the bullpen this year. They were a 5 spot in the 7th inning in Game 2 away from winning the series and climbing higher on these rankings, but this is still a really good team and the class of the NESCAC. IF Tommy O’Hara ’18 (.358 AVG, 2 HR, 15 RBI) has looked every bit the first-teamer he was last year and is certainly right in the mix for POY. The Jumbos are getting their usual mix of contributions all over the order, but if there was one place they would like to see improvement it would be in IF Nick Falkson ‘18’s batting average. The reigning league Player of the Year is showing off his usual power so far this year, to the tune of 4 HRs and 22 RBI, but his average sits at just .258., a far cry from his .373 last year. He has already doubled his big flies, but the contact has not been there quite yet. Look for that to change soon. The story of the year in Somerville, however, is the play of P Brent Greeley ’20. The sophomore has been absolutely lights out, boasting a 4-0 line with a 1.29 ERA (second in the league) in 28.0 IP. His 3.54 K/9 obviously is not indicative of overpowering stuff and time will tell if this is just a hot streak, but the fact that they have a top of the line starter is huge for them going forward. As they showed against Trinity, they have starting pitching that can go deep in games, and deep in the season.

For Midd to figure it out, Colin Waters ’19 and the rest of the pitching staff are going to have come to play versus Amherst
  1. Middlebury

I think there’s a pretty clear top 4 in the NESCAC right now, and spots 5-7 are a toss up, but I’m going to give Midd the nod here on account of strength of schedule, close games, and the fact that this is Middlebury on NbN that we’re talking about. They got swept by Wesleyan but if Colby Morris ’20 pitches like that (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K) for the rest of the year they’re not going to get swept at all (or if they don’t get no-hit). They took 2 out of 3 against a struggling Williams team in California, and although they managed to hang 20 in one of those wins, it did come against the worst pitching staff in the league, so the jury is still out on that one. The 0-3 weekend against Wesleyan makes it a really uphill battle to return the playoffs, especially with Amherst still on the schedule. Their other rather glaring problem is that they haven’t really been good at anything, hitting .252 (9th in the league) and holding the 8th best ERA at 5.57. They need some guys to really start carrying the team if they’re not going to collectively produce. Morris has shown number 1 stuff, and sophomore infielders Hayden Smith (.365 AVG, 9 RBI) and Justin Han (.344 AVG, 14 RBI) could be the catalysts offensively for the Panthers, but it’s quickly turned into do or die time.

  1. Bowdoin

Bowdoin and Bates each find themselves at 3-3 but Bowdoin took 2 out of 3 from the Bobcats, so that made this decision easy. The Polar Bears have ridden P Max Vogel-Freedman ’19 and P Brandon Lopez ’19 to a playoff spot if the season ended today, but unfortunately it doesn’t, and they still have to face Tufts. Bowdoin has utilized the long ball to its benefit with 6 different guys combining to hit 8 homers on the year. I would also like to use this time to throw a shoutout to 1B Sawyer Billings ’18 whose 2-26 with 2 HRs stat line is eerily reminiscent to my Little League production—thanks for bringing me back to the good ole days, Sawyer. Anyways, with Vogel-Freedman and Lopez pitching like they are, they should feel good about their ability to compete. If they can steal 1 or even 2 from Tufts, and then take 2 out of 3 from Colby, that would put them at either 7-5 or 6-6 in the division. Is that going to be good enough to make the playoffs?

  1. Bates

The other 3-3 team in the East are going to need some help and putting this team at 7 feels wrong but someone has to do it. The reality is that this team has taken no strides forward at the plate, and it’s going to be pretty hard (read: near impossible) to make the playoffs hitting .217 as a team. Zach Avila is the only guy hitting above .300 (.316) but none of his 12 hits have been extra base hits. Dan Trulli ’19 (.265, 2 HR, 16 RBI) is their biggest weapon at the plate, but he’s either going to need to do a lot more than what he’s doing now if he’s not going to get any help. Can Connor Russell and Justin Foley make up for it on the mound? Russell has shown he can pitch as good as any arm in the league for a day, but he’s going to have to consistently do it the rest of the way home. The reality is that with 6 games remaining, 3 each against Tufts and Trinity, the Bobcats probably didn’t do enough with their first 6 to stay in the hunt. Perhaps they can play spoiler.

  1. Colby

Colby was able to snag one off of Bates to avoid being swept in their opening weekend, getting a nice pitching performance from first-year LHP Paul Ariola (7 IP, 1 R, 6K). Colby’s biggest problem has been injuries to their pitching staff. Like, all of it. Ariola ’21 leads the team in innings pitched with just 16.1. The guys we expected to take a jump up this year are either hurt or aren’t producing. There’s really no guessing which three guys Coach Plummer will roll out to the mound on a given weekend right now, but it is yet to fully go off the rails for Colby, in large part due to the play of senior OF Matt Treveloni, who has been nothing shy of white hot. Treveloni leads the league with a .440 average to go along with 1 HR and 14 RBI. Colby is still young and has a lot of arms, and while injuries stink, it should give a lot of those young guys chances to prove themselves on the mound.

  1. Williams

It’s safe to say this season has not gone as planned for the Ephs. John Lamont and Sean Hager ’20 vanished seemingly overnight, Lamont to injury, and Hager to transferring, and what remained was a pitching staff with a comfortably league worst 7.37 ERA. Their pitchers just don’t have the stuff, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve struck out 35 less batters than the next closest NESCAC team. Their attempt to convert Kyle Dean ’20 from a reliever, a role in which he had great success last year (26.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 9.35 K/9) has not worked out, and they are desperately seeking guys to fill their rotation. The bright spots for this team have been the young guys, particularly the freshmen. Sophomore OF Mike Stamas (.375 AVG, 24 H, 1 HR, 7 RBI) has taken the jump up in second year production, but 2021s OF Erik Mini (.265, 2 HR, 7 RBI), IF Eric Pappas (.415, 17 H) and RHP George Carroll (24.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, starter of both NESCAC wins) have been what Eph fans should be most excited about. This team is also actually quite solid at the plate (.279, 4th in the NESCAC). If they can find a couple of pitchers that can join Carroll and get past the 2nd inning, and veterans like INFs Kellen Hathaway ’19 and Jack Roberts ’18 can lead this team at the top of the order, they could win some games. But they still have Wesleyan left on their schedule, and if that 7.37 ERA doesn’t drop quicker than Bitcoin their season will be ending shortly.

Zaffino and the Continentals have nowhere to go but up.
  1. Hamilton

There was some competition with Williams for this coveted spot but it goes to the Continentals because they are the only NESCAC team without a league win. Like I said with some previous teams, some of these rankings are harsh, and as the person writing them can attest, they’re not easy to do either, especially when strength of schedule is such a factor. Hamilton will turn it around and win some games going forward, although looking ahead to Wesleyan and Middlebury (and Williams) isn’t ideal, but they’ve got talent. INF Matt Zaffino has just about locked up ROY in the second week of April, putting up as good of a first season as the league has seen in a while, hitting .429 (T2), 3 HR (2nd), and 18 RBI (5th). The kids have been the story for this team, as Zaffino’s first year classmates INF Jarrett Lee (.370, 20 H, 8 RBI) and INF Matt Cappelletti (.295, 2 HR, 8 RBI) have joined in on the production party. They have yet to find consistent top end pitching, but hopefully that will come. This is going to come across as a cop out (it is a cop out) but Hamilton won’t finish 10th in the last Power Rankings, I feel pretty certain about that.

The Snow is Starting to Thaw: NESCAC Baseball Spring Break Recap

Editor’s Note: All of the NESCAC spring break trips are now over and conference play has started for eight of 10 teams. While it might be easy to predict some weekend results, others become muddled after looking at teams’ overall records. Depending on the region of spring break trips (Florida, Arizona, the Mid-Atlantic, or California) there are vastly different strengths of schedules, leading to either inflated or deflated stats. Generally, California has the strongest teams, while all of the other regions have extremely weak competition. For a more in depth look at strength of schedule, check out this site which provides a ranking and strength of schedule assessment for ever D3 baseball team in the country: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html.

Amherst:

Trip Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

Despite a stretch of losses in the middle, Amherst (9-5, 2-0) came out of their preseason contests boasting a respectable 7-5 record. While their offense did its job, hitting .279 as a team and scoring 5.9 runs per game, their pitching is really what carried their success. Andrew Ferrero ‘19 has been the Mammoths’ best pitcher so far, only allowing 2 runs in 18.2 IP on the young season, however, mostly out of the bullpen. Also impressive was Zach Horwitz ‘20 who holds a 1.64 ERA after 11 innings on the bump. Offensively, Amherst was led by Ariel Kenney ‘18 who hit .364 and had a sky-high OPS of 1.157 as a result of two home runs on their trip down south. The Mammoths have set a solid tone for their club for the rest of the season and if key pieces like Harry Roberson ‘18 start to find a groove, Amherst could be title contenders.

Bates:

Trip Location: California

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Strong

Bates (4-9, 1-2) started out their 2018 campaign slowly, dropping six straight games in California. Although they started off on a bad note, both for themselves and for the NESCAC, the Bobcats were able to pick themselves up a little bit once they got back to the East Coast, taking 3 of their next 4 games. A 3-7 record going into NESCAC play is nothing to brag about, but maybe Bates can use some of their recent success to jumpstart them in conference play. With a team ERA of 6.12 and team batting average of .195 going into the opening weekend, there weren’t a whole lot of individuals who stood out as noteworthy after their early trip to SoCal. One bright spot may be Dan Trulli ‘19 who hit .262 over their 10 games and dropped Bates’ only bomb all preseason long. While Bates did play poorly, they traveled to California on February 18th, just three days after official practices started, so we will give them a break here as they couldn’t have been adequately prepared to compete.

Bowdoin:

Spring Break Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Medium

Bowdoin (8-7, 2-1) exits their preseason going an average 6-6. While they had a few lopsided victories (10-1 and 10-2 over Keuka), they also had lopsided losses (16-3 against #3 Rowan). Bowdoin really came into their own over their last 6 games, going 5-1 and holding opposing offenses to only 2.5 runs per game. While their staff as a whole has a very unimpressive ERA of 5.82, Seamus Keenan ‘20 sets the pace for the Polar Bears with a 1.42 ERA and 13K through his first 12 ⅔ IP. The offense has been led by Joe Gentile ‘18 and Jack Wilhoite ‘19 who are each hitting .405 and .406, respectively. While Bowdoin does have 4 guys hitting over .340, nobody in the rest of their lineup is able to crack .260, creating a stark contrast between the middle of their order and the rest. Bowdoin’s keys to success this season will be to lower that team ERA, and get everyone involved up and down the lineup.

Colby:

Spring Break Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

After a huge 13-4 victory over Keuka on opening day, the Mules (2-8, 0-0) have looked stagnant. Going 1-6 since that win is not the look that Colby needed going into NESCAC play. Their only other win after Keuka comes against Waterville rival Thomas College, which is not a particularly impressive win to say the least. Captain Matt Treveloni ‘18 has had a stand out spring so far hitting .440, with the majority of his knocks being for extra bases. Will Phillips ‘20 has also been lighting it up for the Mules at the plate hitting .444. On the other side of the equation, Colby has been giving up an average of 6.6 runs per game, and the offense can’t keep pace with that so far. One success the Mules have had on the mound so far has been Frank Driscoll ‘21, who allowed no earned runs and recorded 8 Ks in the first start of his college career, earning the win over Thomas. The clear problem the Mules have right now is not their ability to put runs on the board, but rather keep them off of it. As their younger pitchers gain more experience, perhaps the Mules can take an opportunity to climb in the standings from their last place finish in 2017.

Hamilton:

Spring Break Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

Hamilton’s (6-9, 0-2) preseason has been an absolute rollercoaster ride. Dropping their first 7 contests, the Continental’s trajectory seemed to be on a crash course for disaster. That is until their bats caught fire and proceeded to win them their next 6 games in a row. Talk about getting hot at the right time, Hamilton is coming into conference play riding a huge wave of momentum, even though they couldn’t finish out a game against Amherst on opening weekend. A large chunk of their success so far has come from freshman duo Jarrett Lee ‘21 and Matt Zaffino ‘21 who both look to be in the early running for NESCAC Rookie of the Year. Zaffino’s 10 extra base hits, three big flys, .405 AVG. and absurd .892 SLG% pace the Continentals through this past weekend. Hamilton’s freshman heavy lineup continues with Gavin Schaefer-Hood ‘21 who leads the Continentals with 16 ⅓ IP saw his 3.77 ERA balloon to 6.06 after a rough outing against Amherst. While Hamilton would not appear to be in the running for a NESCAC crown this season, I would expect them to find a lot more success this season than last with lots of help from their newfound fountain of youth.

Andrew Corcoran ’18 and the Panthers take big swings and will try to continue their suddenly hot offensive streak into Middletown this weekend.

Middlebury:

Spring Break Location: California

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Strong

While Midd (6-9, 2-1) boasts a weak 4-8 non-conference record, their strength of schedule may be to blame. Unlike their competitors who venture down to Florida or Arizona for the duration of their spring break games, Midd throws themselves right into the fire. They played in both Georgia and Southern California to face quality competition on their turf. The Panther’s 3-3 record on their SoCal trip in comparison to Bates’ 0-6 shows the caliber of players that Middlebury has. While their offense has been lackluster, hitting .223 as a team before playing Williams, Justin Han ‘20 has been a diamond in the rough hitting .347 with 12 RBI for the Panthers. On the mound, NBN editor and Middlebury ace Colby Morris ‘19 has been getting the job done, already amassing 28 ⅔ IP on the young season and maintaining a stellar 2.08 ERA befoer facing Williams, which ismuch improved from his first two seasons. While Midd is slated to be a major contender for the NESCAC championship this spring, it is still clear that they have issues that need addressing both offensively and defensively in order to compete at the level they are expected to.

Trinity:

Spring Break Location: South Carolina

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Medium

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Trinity’s (6-8, 2-1) spring so far has been quite below-average. Their 2-4 record in South Carolina screams “meh” and the fact that they have already had 5 home games, a luxury most all NESCAC teams have not enjoyed, hasn’t seemed to serve them too well. With a vital series win against Tufts, the Bantams showed that they put themselves in a good position, however, to outplay the Jumbos. One guy who has been getting it done for the Bantams has been Matt Koperniak ‘20 who leads Trinity in AVG (.404) and extra base hits (6). On the bump, Trinity’s starting rotation has been fantastic. Their top 3 arms Erik Mohl ‘19, Alex Shafer ‘20, and Justin Olson ‘21 have each started at least 2 games and still maintain sub 3 ERAs. This makes Trinity’s problems all to clear, their offense in which nobody buy Koperniak is hitting over .300 and their bullpen which has been blowing games that their starters are setting up for them quite nicely. Although their preseason wasn’t too promising, it looks as if their starting pitching could carry the Bantams to the playoffs due to a down year in pitching for the rest of the conference.

Trinity’s starting pitching carried them to a series win over Tufts and should lead them to the playoffs.

Tufts:

Spring Break Location: Virginia

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

Unsurprisingly, Tufts (7-6, 1-2) is one of the only NESCAC teams to exit spring break with a winning record at 6-4. The Jumbos can flat out rake, with a team AVG of .301 and scoring 11.1 runs per game exiting spring break. The blue and brown machine seems unstoppable, but their stats are not all that they appear to be. During their classic trip to Virginia, they played an unchallenging schedule, looking to leave ranked like in 2016 and 2017. Their 6-4 record, while respectable, is an illusion. They usually exit VA with at most one loss and showed that their pitching staff is much weaker than any could’ve imagined. While RJ Hall and Brent Greeley are off to hot starts with sub-3 ERAs, Tufts lacks the bullpen depth to dominate the NESCAC. As a result, their team ERA is an abysmal 5.85. and they failed to take home a series win against Trinity who didn’t even make the NESCAC playoffs in 2017. Malcolm Nachmanoff ‘18 , Nick Falkson ‘18, and John Moschella ‘19 bolster a strong lineup that should continually allow the Jumbos to compete, even if not at their usual dominant level. Tufts, as always, is favored to win it all this year but they will not be able to do it without some vast improvement in their pen. That being said, I am looking forward to some weekend slugfests between the Jumbos and their NESCAC opponents that could very well result in some football-esque scores.

Wesleyan:

Spring Break Location: Arizona

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

The Cardinals (10-6, 0-0) can be crowned spring training champs of the NESCAC despite a weak strength of schedule. A dominant 9-4 performance shows that Wesleyan is firing on all cylinders to start of the 2018 season. With a team batting average of .314, everyone is eating for the Cardinals. They have an incredible 7 starters hitting over .300 and Chase Pratt’s ‘20 statline of 412/.553/.735 is scary good but down from.520/.618/.920 before last weekend, showing that the Tucson fields aided his bat. Tanner Fulkerson ‘20 has started his season red hot too, hitting .393 with a conference leading 24 RBI. There are almost too many names to mention for Wesleyan so let’s just say that Ryan Earle ‘19, Alex Cappitelli ‘20 and Matt Jeye ‘18 also rake. Although when it comes to pitching, Wesleyan looks like any other NESCAC team with their 5.53 team ERA. Mike McCaffrey ‘19 has had a solid showing so far as the Cardinal ace, with a 3.86 ERA and 12.12 K/9 before a rough start against a great Endicott team which inflated his numbers. His strikeouts are impressive but 27 hits in 21.1 innings and a current 5.48 ERA isn’t dominant. When it comes to offense, I recommend that Wesleyan doesn’t change a thing. On the bump there are certainly problems to be resolved. Nevertheless, McCaffrey, Alec Olmstead, and Kelvin Sosa make up a solid rotation lots of Ks and lots of BBs. The impressive showing the Cardinals put up in Arizona shows that, perhaps, they can go deep into the playoff race this year, but they will likely fall significantly back to earth in the Northeast.

Williams:

Spring Break Location: California

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Strong

All I can say about the Ephs (2-10, 1-2) preseason so far is yikes. If a 1-8 non-conference record isn’t enough to sound an alarm, maybe the fact that they had a 10 game losing streak before beating Midd 5-3 in game three of their opening series. Although they were able to pick up a win on opening day against historically bad Cal Tech, I’m not convinced that Williams’ 1-8 record in SoCal is too much better than Bates’ 0-6. To be fair to the Ephs, they have had several close losses, losing 5-4 to La Verne, 2-1 to Whittier and once again 9-8 to Whittier. It is clear that Williams is missing just some little pieces to turn themselves from a 1-8 club into a NESCAC contender. One piece that has been working for them is Erik Mini ‘21 who starts off his college career hitting .306 with a .611 SLG% and team leading 2 HR. On the mound there is not much to mention for Williams with their team ERA at 7.21. Williams needs to treat their preseason like MLB Spring Training and ignore the numbers. Their series in California against Midd was their first real test of the season and they showed that their pitching is a huge issue. They allowed 29 runs in three games to Midd (20 in game one), and unless they figure something else out, they won’t be able to win 2/3 games in any NESCAC series.