Tag: Ariel Kenney

Mammoth-Sized Shoes to Fill: NESCAC West Preview

Amherst College Mammoths

Head Coach: J.P. Pyne, 1st Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 8-4

Key Losses:

OF Ariel Kenney (.362, 4 HRs, 25 RBI)

IF Harry Roberson (.302, 27 RBI, 38 H)

IF Max Steinhorn (.365, 1 HR, 20 RBI)

LHP Sam Schneider (59.2 IP, 4-2, 2.56 ERA)

Coach Hamm (9 years, 221-113 record)

Key Returners:

OF Joseph Palmo ’21 (.314, 43 H, 15 RBI)

C Severino Simeone ’20 (.243, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 11 runners caught stealing)

IF Nick Nardone (.280, 2 HR, 25 RBI)

RHP Andrew Ferrero (57.0 IP, 4-3, 2.21 ERA)

Biggest Series: Home vs. Middlebury, April 19th-20th

Realistically, this division is 3 teams—Amherst, Wesleyan, and Middlebury—competing for 2 playoff spots. Amherst should have the talent and experience to handle Williams and Hamilton relatively easily (I like that Amherst gets Williams early in the year before a young Ephs team
gets to figure it all out), and whoever comes out on top in their series vs. Wesleyan, it won’t be a sweep. If Amherst can win this series vs. Midd, either 2-1 or 3-0, they should be a lock for the postseason.

Everything Else

Despite being the reigning NESCAC champions, the Mammoths unfortunately have more questions than answers coming into this season. Losing three all-league players and the ace of your rotation will always bring some uncertainty, Amherst had to conduct a coaching search as well this summer. J.P Pyne takes over the program from Clark University after previous HC of nine years Brian Hamm departed for the same position at Eastern Connecticut State. While players undoubtedly win games, it will be interesting to see what kind of effect is felt with a first-year head coach. Joseph Palmo ’21 has already begun to fill the void that first team all-leaguer Ariel Kenney left behind in the outfield, garnering the most recent NESCAC Player of the Week award. If 3B Nick Nardone ’20 and C Seve Simeone ’20 can do the same for Harry Roberson and Max Steinhorn in the infield, Amherst will have a chance to repeat as champions.

Wesleyan University Cardinals

Head Coach: Mark Woodworth, 18th Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 8-4

Key Losses:

OF Matt Jeye (.347, 1 HR, 36 RBI)

Key Returners:

OF Alex Cappitelli ’20 (.367, 2 HR, 34 RBI)

OF Danny Rose ‘20 (.361, 17 XBH, 24 RBI)

LHP Kelvin Sosa ’21 (46.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 9.5 K/9)

LHP Mike McCaffrey (53.0 IP, 5.60 ERA, 9.7 K/9)

Biggest Series: Away @ Amherst, March 29th-30th

While I think Wesleyan is the best team in this division on paper, that isn’t where the games are played. McCaffrey and Sosa’s pitching performances (see below) in the opening series against a Little Three rival will tell Cardinal fans just how much confidence they can have in this team. While it is obviously a matchup between the top teams in the division and has playoff ramifications, it is more so just a great opportunity to see if the talent in Middletown will come to play this year.

Everything Else

Kelvin Sosa needs to improve in order to give the Cardinals a chance this year

Wesleyan certainly seems to be the favorite in this division this year. They return 78.4% of their innings pitched from last year’s staff, as well as some of their top guys in the field, namely junior outfielders Alex Cappitelli and Danny Rose. But this team’s season rests on the shoulders of lefties Mike McCaffrey ’19 and Kelvin Sosa ’21. McCaffrey never came close to finding his form last year, someone who many thought had a chance to be the Pitcher of the Year in the NESCAC. The reason for that is because we have all seen McCaffrey has the stuff to dominate in this league, evidenced by his league leading 57 strikeouts. But he also led the league in walks, with 48. In fact, McCaffrey was joined by the aforementioned Kelvin Sosa (4th-26) near the top of the walks leaderboard. If their top pitchers can throw strikes, they’ll win the division going away. But if their early season results are any indicator (55 Ks to 51 BB), it’s going to be a grind.

Middlebury College Panthers

Head Coach: Mike Leonard, 3rd Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 6-6

Key Losses:

P Robert Erickson (48.2 IP, 3-3, 3.51 ERA)

Key Returners:

RHP Colby Morris ’19 (64.1 IP, 5-4, 1.68 ERA)

IF Justin Han ’20 (.369 AVG, .528 OBP, 22 SB)

IF Brooks Carroll ’20 (.963 FP, 7 2B, 17 RBI)

IF Hayden Smith ’20 (.364, 36 H, 22 RBI)

Biggest Series: Away @ Williams, April 12th-13th

Anyone who has played in this league or followed it, in any sport, knows the importance of winning games against teams you’re better than. The regular season is always decided by the top teams matching up against each other, but you cannot handicap yourself by losing to lesser opponents. Middlebury closes the season with series’ at Amherst and home to Wesleyan, but they cannot come into those games at 3-3 or probably even 4-2. They need to win this series against Williams, and probably win it handily.

Everything Else

The Panthers took another step towards becoming a NESCAC contender, coming just short in a last gasp run at the NESCAC playoffs. They return the reigning Pitcher of Year in righty Colby Morris ’19, and a stacked infield. In order to take the next step up they need to find a way to score some runs, namely in the power department. They were 4th in the league in runs last season but only 7th with just 9 home runs. They are clearly great at hitting for contact and hitting for average, but they need some more star power if they are to steal a few games when the bats go cold or when they run into a good pitcher.

Williams College Ephs

Head Coach: Bill Barrale, 12th Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 6-6

Key Losses:

IF Jack Roberts (.287, 1 HR, 21 RBI)

C Adam Dulsky (.313, 1 HR, 16 RBI)

Key Returners:

OF Mike Stamas ’20 (.321, 1 HR, 13 RBI)

LHP John Lamont ’20 (40.0 IP, 4-1, 1.80 ERA) –in 2017

IF Kellen Hatheway ’19 (.228, 2 HR, 11 RBI)

Biggest Series: Home vs. Amherst April 5th-6th

Not only because it’s one of the biggest rivalries in all of collegiate athletics, but this series will be huge for the Ephs as it is their opener in divisional play. I think this is going to be a year of ups and downs for Williams, a young and unproven team riding the momentum of a long season. If they get smoked in three games, they might not recover the rest of the way, but if they are competitive in every game and even manage to take 1 or 2 off of their archrivals, it could boost their confidence for the rest of the season.

Everything Else

2018 was nothing but bad luck for the Ephs. Star pitcher Johnny Lamont ’20 missed his entire sophomore campaign, decimating an already bare cabinet of arms in Williamstown. Freshman IF Erik Pappas had been a bright spot in the lineup, hitting .415 before going down with a season ending injury after 15 games. There is certainly talent on this roster, however. IF Kellen Hatheway ’19 didn’t have the junior season he was hoping to after terrific freshman and sophomore years, but absolutely has First-Team potential. This team is probably still a year or two away, but if they can stay healthy this year, there should be some bright spots and building blocks.

Hamilton College Continentals

Head Coach: Tim Byrnes, 12th Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 2-10

Key Losses:

None

Key Returners:

IF Matt Zaffino ’21 (.359, 3 HR, 22 RBI)

IF Jarrett Lee ’21 (.305, 29 H, 13 RBI

Biggest Series: Home vs. Williams, April 26th-27th

Matt Zaffino is looking to make the jump to “star” status in his second season

Hamilton plays Middlebury, Wesleyan, and Amherst in that order before their divisional finale vs. Williams. Quite frankly, 2 or more wins out of those 9 would be a win for the Continentals. Their performance against their next most equal division opponent in Williams to close out the season will, rightly or wrongly, determine how Hamilton should feel about their season.

Everything Else

Hamilton are in a peculiar spot this season. They went 4-8 at the bottom of the NESCAC West but they return just about everyone. However, you’ll notice there are only two names listed as “key” returners. They return everyone, but those returners were not amongst the league’s top producers, save for Rookie of the Year Matt Zaffino, who has Player of the Year talent. This might be a good team this year, but they have Amherst, Wesleyan, and Middlebury on their schedule. Their record is going to reflect that.

Next Year Starts Now: Way Too Early 2019 NESCAC Baseball Power Rankings

2019 NESCAC Baseball Preseason Power Rankings:

After it was all said and done, Amherst showed everyone why you can’t count them out. Facing elimination against Middlebury, Amherst won some close ballgames to survive and advance, combining clutch pitching and hitting all the way to a NESCAC title. As the Harry Roberson and Max Steinhorn era comes to a close at Amherst, it was nice from a personal perspective that these guys won it all. With those guys leaving, however, it is tough to think that Amherst will be in the same position next year. While coaches Brian Hamm and John Casey will never put out a losing team onto the field, a product of superior coaching, recruiting, and pedigree, they have a tough task to replace their best hitters. Casey arguably has a harder task, needing to replace the meat of his lineup, but will likely have some hot shot recruits coming in to fill that void. As these guys graduate and move on to the real world, teams filled with underclassmen will start to rise. Middlebury, and Wesleyan of the west division were filled with strong underclassmen, while Trinity looks to be the most promising out of the East.

1). Wesleyan:

With sometimes inconsistent hitting, Wesleyan’s NESCAC success will rely on the control and success of their pitching staff.

Wesleyan had to play a perfect game against Tufts to stay alive in the tournament and they revealed some weaknesses in their pitching staff as a result. Despite some stellar offensive numbers (.298 team AVG), the Cards struggled against quality pitching down the stretch. At times they looked overmatched in the NESCAC tournament, seeing their true advantage of starting pitching fail to execute when it counted. Mike McCaffrey and Kelvin Sosa, two of the most talented pitchers in the league, went 5.1 innings, allowing 11 runs and 13 BBs in the NESCAC tournament, leading to an early exit. They have the offensive depth and starting pitching to go a long way, but they need to compete better in big games and show that their bullpen can keep the score close if their starters don’t got deep into outings. The Cards are young, though and just might have the talent to go all the way. Alex Capitelli, Danny Rose, Kelvin Sosa, and Mike McCaffrey are just a few of the names the Cardinals are returning.

2). Middlebury:

Colin Waters is a wild card for 2019, putting up solid numbers as a sophomore and coming on only at the end of this year. Not playing football could turn him into one of NESCAC’s best arms.

Middlebury came close to making the playoffs, but a weak start to the season made any road to the postseason a long shot if not impossible. Getting swept by Wesleyan in one of the early serieses gave Midd absolutely no momentum and a 2-4 record at the halfway point. The squad stopped underachieving around three-quarters into the year, but by then, it was too late. They were hampered all year by injuries too as highly touted recruit Michael Farinelli and starting pitcher Spencer Shores both went down with Tommy John surgery after the preseason. Shores, a hard throwing righty with jerky mechanics and a wipeout slider, saw tons of success at the beginning of 2017 and if he can get healthy, the Panthers should have a formidable pitching staff. Anchoring that pitching staff is Colby Morris, one of the NESCAC’s top arms and Colin Waters who really came on at the end of the year, dominating Union in a 5-3 victory and shutting down Amherst in relief. 1B Kevin Woodring (1st Team All-NESCAC Nose Tackle for the football team) went down with a knee injury against Williams and did not return the rest of the way, and has the potential to lead the league in HR. They also have the NESCAC defensive POY, Brooks Carroll at SS, First-Team All-NESCAC 2B Justin Han, and a breakout hitter in Hayden Smith. The ceiling is high for this team, but as always the question will be: Will they put it all together?

3). Trinity:

Trinity has solid starting pitching and their offensive is anchored by the powerful Koperniak.

Trinity must be kicking themselves after such a heartbreaking change of events at the end of the regular season. The Bantams started off the season so strong, winning the series against Tufts and Bowdoin and sweeping Colby, setting themselves up for an early playoff clinch with a 7-2 record. With Tufts underachieving, Bates not hitting, and the rest of the east not playing well all together, it seemed like a playoff spot for Trin was locked up. Losing three tight games in a row to Bates, however, killed the Bantams season. The potential returns, though: no weekend starter for Trin was a senior, so they’ll be back. Alex Shafer dominated all year and is in the conversation for pitcher of the year, Erik Mohl had a down year but could return to his All-NESCAC form. C Alex Rodriguez needs to step up though, seeing his stellar freshman numbers collapse in his sophomore campaign. Hopefully a second stint in the NECBL will help him find that talent once again. Matt Koperniak broke out and garnered both All-NESCAC and All-Region honors and will be their on field leader in 2019. With their new field, good coaching, and likely some talented recruits coming in, the Bantams will be an exciting team to watch come next spring.

4). Tufts:

Tufts didn’t surprise anybody by winning the East division regular season title, proving our preseason rankings correct. Although they made it to the tournament, they lacked pitching dominance like they have enjoyed in their previous eras, seeing their #2 and #3 starters combine for a paltry 4.05 K/9. Despite sub-3.00 ERAs from both of these players, Brent Greeley and Spencer Langdon, their strikeout numbers reveal that they can’t generate swings and misses and rely on good defense and a bad BABIP (batting average on balls in play) from opponents. Well, it might not get much better, as their corner infielders Tommy O’Hara and Nick Falkson graduated. Their seniors represented a 4x First Team All-NESCAC honoree in 3B Tommy O’Hara, the 2018 NESCAC POY Malcolm Nachmanoff, and the 2017 NESCAC POY Nick Falkson which is tough for even the legendary coach John Casey to replace. RJ Hall will lead the staff to a number of wins, but they might not have the offense to dominate like they usually do. One thing to count on is that they will lead the league in hit by pitches by about 50.

5). Williams: 

Williams had a tough season without their ace Johnny Lamont. He’s an elite pitcher, although even he wouldn’t have been able to solve all of the Ephs’ pitching problems. Williams simply lacked ‘stuff’ on the mound this year and their offense wasn’t deep enough to make up for it. Kyle Dean will likely move back to the bullpen next year where he saw success as a freshman, and Lamont should help balance out the staff. Jack Bohen will need to be more consistent for his team to have a chance to win NESCAC weekend games. Kellen Hatheway and Jack Roberts had talent sure enough, but got off to slow starts and never got back to the All-NESCAC level that they were at in the past. Hatheway will surely figure it out (unless he gets an internship this summer) and is still an elite DIII defender, with arguably the most range in the conference. Losing is never fun, and the Ephs’ playoff drought is getting longer and longer, so they will assuredly come back next year with a new sense of energy especially with their ace returning.

6). Amherst:

Nick Nardone is one of the lone powerful bats remaining in Amherst’s lineup.

What a run it was for the Amherst Mammoths. They won 5 straight to head to the New York Regional, and while they exited after a quick 0-2 performance, they lost both games by one run, competing and showing that they deserved to be there. Ultimately their offensive depth was an issue as Max Steinhorn, Ariel Kenney, and Harry Roberson were far more dangerous than their other hitters, but they had the best all around team in the conference. Their pitching, both starting and relief, performed when they needed it to, and some unlikely offensive heroes stepped up in big spots. Bolstering the lineup in 2019 will be first year standout Joseph Palmo, whose wide batting stance is surprisingly balance and consistent, offering a contact heavy and line drive approach. He, along with Severino Simeone and Nick Nardone, should lead the Mammoth team who desperately needs to retool after losing some of their program’s all time best players. Andrew Ferrero finally pitched up to his potential too, and with Zach and Davis Brown, they could easily keep most of their NESCAC opponents at bay to compete for another title.

7). Bates:

Bates, underwhelming in most statistical categories, somehow got into the playoffs again. I don’t know what’s in the water up in Lewiston, but once you make the playoffs, nobody could care less about your stats. What it came down to was doing what Middlebury couldn’t–winning with their season on the line and coming from behind to take tight ballgames. A .237 team average is one of the worst in the ‘Cac, but the Bobcats beat out other teams with better team averages to see their season continue. What was especially huge was how they saw a future ace emerge as Nolan Collins threw the ball extremely well in tight spots. The sophomore posted a 2.75 ERA, and was the go to pitcher for Bobcats in must win games, knocking off Tufts in their final series to clinch a trip to Hartford. No hitter posted above a .267 average with most hitters barely hitting their weight though and that is a recurring issue. It will be tough for the Bobcats to get in again with that hitting, but Zach Avila was a breakout player who could see continued success in the NESCAC along with second year starting catcher and All-NESCAC honoree Jack Arend. I counted them out before, so it’s hard to predict what they’ll do next year. All I have to say is it ain’t over until all 12 games are played.

8). Bowdoin:

Bowdoin either needs to have a stellar recruiting class coming in or Lopez needs to be the ace that the Polar Bears were missing in 2018.

The Bowdoin Polar Bears’ end of year record was solid at 7-5, but they lost out on a playoff bid in tiebreaking fashion to Bates. I’m sure that they want to get revenge on Bates for making the playoffs two years in a row, seeing their season end exceptionally early. Like in the west, Bowdoin has a lot of young guys in All-NESCAC honoree Eric Mah and Connor Lee who led the team in hitting. Those two will put up another good year at the plate in 2019, as the team will be bolstered by all around athlete Brandon Lopez. Lopez started off the season terribly and looked as if his velocity dropped from previous years, but turned it around back to back gems against Colby (not a huge confidence booster) and Southern Maine. The game against Southern Maine really gives the Polar Bears some momentum moving forward as the ranked Huskies dominated all the other NESCAC teams they played (Bates, Colby, Amherst). Brett Osterholtz and Colby Lewis will need to step up to make the starting staff more formidable, but if they do, look for Bowdoin to compete for a playoff bid again next year.

9). Hamilton:

Hamilton Baseball’s 2021 class showed a lot of potential, leading to an exciting offseason for the young program.

Hamilton, as usual, is competitive at times with the league’s best but also finds a way to come up short. The West division is no cake walk with perennial winners Wesleyan and Amherst, but Hamilton showed to both teams that they should be respected. They won the series against Wesleyan and took one game from Amherst after losing the first two in heartbreaking fashion. The team is young, and didn’t return too many starters, putting out a product much better than most expected. Matt Zaffino raked all year, garnering the NESCAC Rookie of the Year honors—ending the season with a .359 average. If they can figure it out in close games, Hamilton could potentially make the playoffs next year. They need to keep games close to give the ball to their lights out closer Ian Nish, and have to improve on their defense and offensive execution.

10). Colby

Colby had a tough year and there’s no way around that with a 1-11 NESCAC season. It doesn’t look like it’ll get much better next year either. The Mules’ best hitter and my former classmate Matt Treveloni is graduating (congrats, Trev), and the east is far more variable than the West. Tufts is always a good team, however they didn’t dominate like they have in the past few years and aren’t likely to improve without their three best hitters. The other teams in the East–Bates, Bowdoin, and Trinity are likely to improve though, and the Mules will have a tough task ahead of them without any cake-walk serieses. If pitchers throw strikes for the Mules next year (and they find a new starting pitching staff or it Taimu Ito returns to this 2017 form), they could be 4-8 in conference, but to be better, they’ll need to find some more offense.

It was a great year. Teams that seem to always get the job done, Amherst and Tufts, made it to the finals and two great coached teams playing each other is every baseball fan’s dream. In the end, Amherst proved to everyone why the game always requires twenty-seven outs, cranking out stellar performances in must win games like it was easy. The highlight of the regular season was the way that the East division came down to a three team tiebreaker, showing that no matter how many games are played, everything still seems to come down to the wire. Thank you to all the players and coaches that make the season so enjoyable! See you next spring.

-Andrew

 

 

Appleton Bound? Amherst NCAA Baseball Regional Preview

Auburn Regional (New York Region) – Hosted by #9 Cortland

 After earning the NESCAC automatic NCAA tournament bid, preventing Tufts from collecting their third straight conference title, the Amherst Mammoths will venture down to Falcon Park in Auburn, New York. Falcon Park is the home of #9 SUNY Cortland and the site for this year’s DIII baseball New York regional. Other notable teams include #10 Salisbury, out of Maryland, and #24 Southern Maine. NCAA regionals are a double-elimination tournament, much like the NESCAC playoffs. The winner of the regional will represent the New York Region at the 2018 DIII World Series in Appleton, Wisconsin.

First Opponent – #24 Southern Maine

Southern Maine finished 3rd in the Little East Conference this season, behind Eastern Connecticut and #3 UMass – Boston. Southern Maine finished 4-1 against NESCAC opponents this season, beating Bates and Colby in mid-week games and splitting games against Bowdoin. The USM Huskies are lead offensively by Devin Warren ‘19, who is hitting .401 with 31 RBI, and Dylan Hapworth ‘20, who has a .338 AVG and 8 home runs. Jake Dexter ‘19, whose father Tom is a baseball and football coach at Colby College, has been doing absolutely everything for the Huskies this season. At the plate he is hitting .387 with 28 RBI and on the mound he is USM’s #1 arm out of the ‘pen, maintaining a 1.67 ERA and 11.13 K/9. Amherst will most likely face Gage Feeney ‘20 who is 6-1 on the season with a 3.18 ERA. Southern Maine is no stranger to good competition as they have the 21st best strength of schedule in the nation, compared to Amherst’s 164th, per herosports.com.

 

Amherst is headed to a loaded regional.

Amherst will likely send out Sam Schneider ‘18 to face the Huskies as he has been their ace all year long. Schneider has started to stand out down the stretch in this playoff run, throwing 7 ⅔ strong innings against Bates in game 1 of the NESCAC playoffs and will have had 6 days of rest between that appearance and their contest versus USM. Amherst’s and USM’s staffs match up very evenly on paper. Amherst has a team ERA of 3.58 while USM’s team ERA is 3.82. They both have solid starters that should keep them in the game for 6+ innings and bullpens who have consistently kept the leads that their starters have given them this season. Offensively, Southern Maine has the clear advantage over Amherst. While both clubs have team averages in the low .300s, USM has been getting it done in style. The Huskies have belted 29 home runs as a team this season, compared to Amherst’s 11. The Mammoths will need to keep USM inside the ballpark in order for them to move past game 1 of the regional unscathed.

Game 2  

If Amherst manages to take down USM, they will face the winner of #10 Salisbury vs. St. Joseph’s (L.I.). If Amherst loses to USM, they will face the loser of #10 Salisbury vs. St. Joseph’s (L.I.).

Salisbury enters the tournament after receiving an automatic bid as champions of the Capital Athletic Conference. The Salisbury Seagulls are on a 8-game winning streak, which is tied for the 5th longest active winning streak in D3 baseball and are the clear favorite to win their opening round game. They enter the tournament white-hot after sweeping through their conference tournament, scoring 49 runs and giving up just 7 in 5 games. Jack Barry ‘19 has been an offensive juggernaut for the Seagulls, boasting a .423 AVG and dropping a team-leading 8 bombs thus far. Salisbury’s offense is good, but their pitching is what makes them great. The Capital Athletic Conference is a hitter’s conference, nearly every team has averages above .300 and ERAs above 5.00. Salisbury has a conference-best 3.38 ERA, which is really what separates them from the competition. Their staff is spearheaded by Connor Reeves ‘18, who has the most wins in the nation at 13. Reeves also is 9th nationally in ERA at 1.22, 6th in strikeouts with 103 and 1st in innings pitched with 110 ⅔ (the NESCAC leader in IP has 64.1 for reference). If having one clear All-American wasn’t enough for Salisbury, how about two? Austin Heenan ‘18,  a DI transfer from Virginia Military Institute, is 10-3 on the season, tied for 2nd most wins in the nation, with a 2.33 ERA. Heenan has racked up 110 strikeouts this season, which is also 2nd best in the nation. If Amherst were to face Salisbury in game 2, which would likely only occur given the Mammoths take game 1, they would have to face Heenan. While Amherst has seen their fair share of quality arms this year, All-American caliber players such as Reeves and Heenan are hard to come by, and even harder to beat.

Most likely, if Amherst loses game 1 they will face St. Joseph’s (L.I.). The Golden Eagles earned their NCAA tournament berth through capturing the Skyline Conference playoff title. Prior to their conference final against Merchant Marine, St. Joseph’s was riding an impressive 11-game win streak. The St. Joe’s lineup is headlined by Paul Britt ‘19, who transferred from host SUNY Cortland after his freshman year. Britt is hitting .406 and leads the team in homeruns (7) and RBI (35). The Golden Eagles have an extremely productive core in their lineup, but are not great top-to-bottom as many teams who fare well nationally are. On the mound, St. Joe’s has had 9 different guys start games for them and are usually quick to pull the trigger and head to the bullpen. Nick Clemente ‘18 has logged the most innings on the staff this year with 54 ⅔, a miniscule number compared to Salisbury’s #1 and #2. The Golden Eagles would be a very even matchup for Amherst, should they square off. Both teams have guys who are excellent individually, but the team as a whole doesn’t stick out in the very talented group in this regional.

Beyond Game 2 

If the Mammoths are lucky enough to make it past 2 games, as Tufts was unable to do last year, they could face any combination of the remaining teams in the regional. #9 SUNY Cortland won their first national championship back in 2015 and has competed in 26 straight NCAA tournaments. Baldwin Wallace won the Ohio Athletic Conference tournament and has now made the NCAA tournament in 3 of their last 5 seasons. Swarthmore upset a very talented Johns Hopkins team to win their conference and currently hold a school-best 33 wins on the year. Finally, Westfield State captured the Massachusetts Small College Athletic Conference title to make their first NCAA tournament since 2009.

Overall, the majority of the teams at this regional simply outclass Amherst. The Mammoths could certainly compete against teams like Westfield State, Swarthmore, St Joseph’s and maybe even Baldwin Wallace. When it comes to teams such as Southern Maine, Salisbury and Cortland; Amherst would need to pull off a small miracle to walk away with a victory.

But since they are our only NESCAC team left, we believe in the Mammoths. Did anybody see Davidson College’s remarkable playoff run last year? Crazier things have happened, so keep reading to see how these academic weapons can keep the dream alive:

Amherst’s Strengths, Weaknesses and X-Factor

Strengths:

  • The boys are hot: Amherst is on a 5-game winning streak that includes 2 crucial wins against Midd to take them to the NESCAC playoffs and then 2 more impressive wins over two-time reigning champs Tufts.
  • Senior Leadership: The core of the Amherst lineup is Max Steinhorn ‘18, Ariel Kenney ‘18 and Harry Roberson ‘18. These boys have been grinding together for 4 years to reach this point and will not go out without a bang. They set the bar high for their teammates and challenge them to perform to their full potential. Senior leadership is an invaluable asset for any team and Amherst is full of it.

    Sam Schneider is ready to go this weekend after back-to-back gems.
  • Their Bullpen: Similarly, Stephen Burke ‘21 has started his career off hot. In his 13 appearances he is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA. Zach Brown has also been a major player for Amherst, putting up a 1.76 ERA and 11.74 K/9 in his 9 appearances, despite lots of unearned runs and a lack of control. He can dominate if he locates his curveball, because his heat probably won’t phase these hitters as much as it did earlier this year. Mike Dow has also had a phenomenal statistical season with 7 saves, but has had some wild pitches and hit batters in his last few outings. If he keeps it together emotionally, Amherst will be good to go as his stuff is effective and he generally locates well. When it is time to hand the ball over to the ‘pen, Amherst has some great resources at their disposal which could help them further themselves in the NCAA tournament.

Weaknesses:

  • Quality of Competition: While it is a great feat in-and-of itself to capture the NESCAC title, the competition Amherst has faced has not prepared them for the level of talent they are about to go up against. No team that Amherst has faced this year is in the top-25, let alone any team that they have beaten. In a regional that has 3 top-25 teams, including 2 in the top-10, Amherst is facing competition unlike any they have seen this year.
  • Power: Amherst’s 11 home runs ranks last among all the teams at the regional. Alex Marcum ‘18 (Baldwin Wallace), Dudley Taw ‘20 (Baldwin Wallace) and Anthony Crowley ‘19 (Westfield St.) all have more home runs individually than Amherst does as a team. In high-stakes playoff environments such as the NCAA Regionals home runs can be a huge momentum shifter and Amherst simply doesn’t have to pop to produce many of them. Especially against high-quality arms, which they will be facing plenty of, it will be tough to string together hits, so the long ball becomes a much needed tool that Amherst doesn’t have access to.
  • Experience: Only the Seniors on this Amherst team have had the taste of NCAA playoffs. Amherst made the NCAA Regionals with an at-large bid back in 2015 after losing the NESCAC Championship to Wesleyan. That regional was also hosted by Cortland and the Mammoths went 1-2 in regional play, including a loss to eventual national champion Cortland. Many of the other teams in this regional consistently make the tournament or play in higher quality conferences, no offense NESCAC, that regularly get more than one team into NCAA Regionals. The lack of postseason experience could serve to hurt Amherst as they will be going in a huge underdog compared to many of the programs they will be facing.

X-Factor

  • Ariel Kenney ‘18:

    Ariel Kenney ’18

    Kenney started off the season hot and is my pick for West Player of the Year, but as of late he has cooled down significantly. In his last 8 games he is 5 for 29 (.172 AVG) and has had no extra base hits. Kenney has been a key part of the Mammoth lineup all season and if they wanted to outperform their expectations for this regional he’s going to have to break out of this slump and play like he was at the beginning of the season. Now is as tough a time as ever to break out of a slump, as he will be facing the best pitching he has seen all year and possibly in his career, but if he can’t go back to his POY ways, it is more than likely that Amherst will not make it too far in the regional.

Prediction

 I believe that Amherst will drop their first game against Southern Maine and the rally to beat St. Joseph’s (L.I.) in their second game. Southern Maine’s pitching is not dominant, so the Mammoths certainly have a chance, however. Amherst’s staff is not deep enough to carry them for more than 2 or 3 games in such a short time-span so it is more than likely that whoever the Mammoths face in game 3, if they are lucky enough to make it that far, will get the better of them. That being said, as representatives of the NESCAC I will be rooting for Amherst to exceed my expectations and help to put NESCAC baseball back on the map. Good luck Mammoths.

 

Note: For the full regional schedule, please go online and check out Amherst Baseball’s page.

Ring Chasing: NESCAC Baseball Playoff Preview

Finally, we’re in the NESCAC playoffs. It’s the usual suspects from the west: Amherst and Wesleyan. Coming out of the east, we have the same teams as the 2017 season. Both Bates and Tufts put up impressive second half records to allow them to make the playoffs. Amherst similarly barely made the tournament, while Wesleyan has limped its way in. All teams have the ability to win the conference—making it a fight to the bitter end. Let’s look at the game one matchups:

Game 1, Wesleyan vs Tufts (Hartford, CT):

This game is a rematch of the 2014 NESCAC final. Tufts comes into the tournament smoking hot. Tufts is one of the best hitting NESCAC teams in the past few years. The ‘Bos are either first or second in all major hitting statistical categories. They lead in HBP (like they do every year) and on base percentage, which shows all nine guys are willing to get on any way possible. They open it up by leading the league in homers and hits. Malcolm Nachmanoff is the run away candidate in the player of the year race with a .432 avg and seven big flies, leading the ‘Bos at the plate. Not far behind him is 10th-year senior Tommy O’Hara, who has been a staple in the Jumbos lineup for quite some time. R.J. Hall will likely be the game one starter. He has logged the most innings, and couples that with a 2.81 ERA. Right behind Hall are Brent Greeley (2.31 ERA) and Spencer Langdon who leads the ‘Bos starters with a 1.66 ERA. Tufts has no glaring weaknesses with a potent lineup, and dominant staff. They might be in trouble if a starter gets knocked out early though as no reliever has below a 4.00 ERA. Tufts isn’t invincible. If teams can get to Tufts’ bullpen, they have a serious chance of winning.

Ryan Earle needs to be a power threat like that of Tufts’ three headed monster in Hartford.

Wesleyan crawls into the playoffs with numerous injuries on the year. The Cards have had their fair share of big wins such as sweeps against Midd and Williams, but disappointments as well. Losing a series against an evenly matched Amherst squad, and losing two games to one against an underachieving Hamilton team are low points. For Wesleyan’s standards, I’m sure that these results are disappointments, but they showed important aspects of the team. Southpaw Kelvin Sosa is on track to win rookie of the year; McCaffrey has the best K/9 in the league. There are certain x-factors in the lineup like Danny Rose who is one of the top hitters in the conference. His short swing coupled with good bat speed allows him to launch baseballs to the right center gap. The biggest x-factor for Wes, I believe, is Tanner Fulkerson. The Colorado native was named NESCAC player of the week with an outstanding performance against Trinity last weekend. Andrew Kauf and Jake Alonzo have provided great gloves and bats for the infield as well. If I were writing a stock report, Wesleyan sophomores would definitely be stock up. People forget that infielder Jonny Corning is out for the year with a  shoulder injury (albeit in his non-throwing arm). Fortunately, this talented class has stepped up all season. If all the sophomores perform, Wesleyan’s lineup can almost match Tufts.

Pat Clare and Alec Olmstead are going to have huge roles as the weekend rolls on for Wes.

The bats make the matchup exciting, but expect a 5-4 or 6-3 game. If Sosa goes, and messes up Tufts’ rhythm (shimmy-shimmy), I think the Cards will take it.

Prediction: Wesleyan 5-4

Game 2: Bates vs Amherst (Hartford, CT):

Amherst got into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth. Having to beat a hot Midd team twice in a row on the road is no easy task, but Amherst accomplished it. Amherst is a good team, but they shot themselves in the foot a bit with a poor performance against Hamilton. Like I always say, Amherst will make the plays down the stretch in close games. A guy like Harry Roberson has been through it all at Amherst. He may not carry himself like a physically imposing player, however, his role in Amherst’s record books doesn’t lie. Roberson has picked it up after a slow start to the season. After hitting in the mid-.200’s to begin the year, he has clawed his way up to a .303 average. Although Davis Brown had been their go-to game one starter, Andrew Ferrero has become their top guy, and with a 2.72 ERA, he is depended on to get the outs in critical scenarios. Ariel Kenney and Max Steinhorn are also anchors in the lineup with averages in the high .300’s, pacing the team that leads the league average and hits. Amherst will put up a good fight one through nine and there’s no easy out in that lineup.

Connor Russell needs to be sharp to give Bates a chance.

Let’s stop criticizing Bates. Yes, the team average isn’t good. It’s pretty bad. At .244, the Bobcats are ranked eighth in the league in team average. Even if they can’t hit on paper, they’re good enough to find themselves in the playoffs for the second consecutive year. They’re making the plays when they need to. Nolan Collins has been throwing the ball really well recently and dominated Tufts two weeks ago to clinch their spot in the postseason. The righty leads the starters with a 2.98 ERA while the other starters are merely average. With ERA’s in the 4’s and 5’s for the rest of the staff, Collins will be relied upon to carry the staff the rest of the way. Another key factor to Bates’ recent success is the coaching of Jon Martin. Coming from Vassar to Bates for 2017 season, Martin has brought Bates to the playoffs for two consecutive years. The talent of Bates is average for the NESCAC, but Martin has made the Bobcats a perennial contender. They started off the season slowly, but Martin guided them to a berth, while simultaneously shocking Trinity. Offensively, Justin White has the best average on the team (.381) with very few at bats and Zach Avila has had some big hits, but there aren’t a ton of threats in this lineup. In order to have a shot, the bats are going to need to come alive this weekend.

The game will be low scoring for sure, but I can’t bet against Amherst here.

Prediction: Amherst 2-0

Time For Hardware: Regular Season NESCAC Baseball Awards

While the baseball season might be over, the awards season is just beginning. Not to be too self promoting here, but our awards are certainly less biased than the real NESCAC awards and should be taken more seriously. As it goes with the MLB awards, they are based on regular season results, not the postseason, and categorized based on league. Here’s to the best ballplayers in the ‘CAC…

West Player of the Year:

Ariel Kenney had a stand out season to finish off a great career.

 OF Ariel Kenney ‘18 (Amherst) Chula Vista, CA: Kenney put a monster season this year en route to Amherst clinching of the #1 seed in the NESCAC West. Coming in at 3rd in the conference with his .383 AVG and 5th with his 4 big flys, Kenney was the heart of an Amherst offense that put up the 2nd most runs in the league. A few of Kenney’s impressive performances this season include a game versus Eastern Connecticut St. in which he went 4-5 with a homerun and a 2-2 stint with 3 RBI and a walk against Williams. Kenney’s 16 extra-base hits were third in the conference, helping boosting him to a .600 SLG%. Amherst will look to ride their MVP all the way to a NESCAC ‘ship, starting with Bates in NESCAC playoffs this weekend.

East Player of the Year AND Combat Silver Slugger POY:

Stony Brook transfer, Malcolm Nachmanoff, had by far the best season of any NESCAC player.

OF Malcolm Nachmanoff ‘18 (Tufts) Boston, MA: Another year, another Jumbo winning Player of the Year. That being said, there is absolutely no doubt that Nachmanoff deserves to take home the hardware after an incredible, breakout Senior spring. Nachmanoff lead the conference in Batting Average (.432), Homeruns (7), Slugging (.775), Doubles (15), Total Bases (86) and Extra-Base Hits (23). He was the NESCAC leader in 6 categories which is nothing less than absolute dominance. Nachmanoff transferred to Tufts after his sophomore season at D1 Stony Brook and proceeded to have a fairly rough Junior year for the Jumbos in which he only hit .182. He was able to find that D1 talent this season and prove that he is not just one, but several steps above the rest of the competition. Nachmanoff’s next challenge is to lead the Jumbos to his second ‘ship in 2 years and their first challenge will be the Wesleyan Cardinals.

West Cy Young:

P Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury) Ross, CA: Yes folks, the time has come. NBN is going to give our editor the credit he deserves. As much as we all love to make fun of Colby, his numbers are far too good to ignore. Morris was absolutely lights out all year long, leading the conference in Complete Games (4), Wins (5), Innings (63 ⅓) and Strikeouts (52). Along with all those feats, Morris was second in the conference with a jaw-dropping 1.71 ERA. Though, what made Morris’ effort so special this season is the way that he turned it on during conference play. In-conference he was 3-1, including 3 complete games, with 23 Ks and an ERA of 0.93. Despite the fact that Midd will be missing out on the playoffs this year after a tough series loss against Amherst, Morris did absolutely everything in his power to give them the opportunity to get there. Midd’s youthful core this season and Morris’ dominance should translate to a very exciting 2019 in Vermont.

East Cy Young:

RJ Hall has been there and done that in his three years at Tufts and is a tough matchup for any team in the playoffs.

P R.J. Hall ‘19 (Tufts) Marietta, GA: The East Cy Young was a particularly difficult award to pick because there were many good candidates, and almost all of them play for Tufts. Hall takes the cake because he proved himself to be the Jumbo’s most relied upon arm and ace throughout the season. Hall has a solid 5-2 record on the year, contributing immensely to Tufts’ 1st place finish in the East. His 47 strikeouts were far and away the most of anyone on the Jumbo’s staff and was 4th in the NESCAC. Hall notched 3 key conference wins over all 3 Maine schools (Colby, Bowdoin and Bates), including a complete game shutout against Bowdoin. Hall is the face of a three-headed monster for Tufts which will look to continue their success all the way to a three-peat of the NESCAC championship this weekend.

Reliever of the Year:

P Jake Shapiro ‘18 (Bates) Sandy, UT: It seemed as if every time Shapiro entered the game for the Bobcats, it was over. In his 14 appearances this season Shapiro maintained a .98 ERA and amassed 6 saves which were 2nd best in the ‘CAC. 5 of Shapiro’s 6 saves came in conference games, tied for the most of any pitcher this season. The reason behind Shapiro’s success was his ability to put hitters away via the strikeout. Shapiro has been punching out batters left and right and it shows in his 12.27 K/9. #2 Bates will face #1 Amherst this Friday in the first round of the NESCAC playoffs and you can be sure that if they have a lead Shapiro will be there man to finish it off.

Breakout Player of the Year:

P Spencer Langdon ‘20 (Tufts) Westlake, TX: After not seeing a single inning of work his Freshman year, Tufts hurler Spencer Langdon broke onto the scene in the NESCAC this year. He lead the NESCAC in ERA with a staggering 1.66 and holds a perfect 4-0 record heading into the playoffs. The majority of Langdon’s success came in NESCAC play in which he went 3-0 and had an even better ERA of 1.35. The Jumbos managed to win every single game that Langdon started this season, helping them to another first place finish in the NESCAC East. Tufts gave Langdon his first career start in their opening series against Trinity, after his impressive preseason relief stints, and never looked back. Langdon cemented his place as the best #3 starter in the conference this season and certainly as a candidate for POY. Tufts will use their hidden gem this weekend in NESCAC playoffs where Langdon will look to go 2/2 on NESCAC ‘ships.

Rookie of the Year:

P Kelvin Sosa ‘21 (Wesleyan) Bronx, NY: Amongst a 2021 class that was full of talent, Sosa proved to be the best. Earning himself the 2-spot in the rotation in just his first season, Sosa took full advantage of the opportunity he was given. His 2.54 ERA was the 5th best in the NESCAC and his 49 Ks were 3rd best. Some of his highlights this season include 6 ⅔ scoreless innings against Midd where he racked up 11 Ks and a 9 inning, complete game shutout against Williams that notched him 7 Ks. Sosa was a key piece in Wesleyan’s playoff run and will be getting his first taste of NESCAC playoffs this year. While Wesleyan’s next test is #1 seed in the East, Tufts, it is almost certain that Sosa will get the ball in game 2 of the playoffs.

 

2018 NESCAC 1st Team (Does not include award winners above)

C Chase Pratt ‘20 (Wesleyan) Rye, NY

IF Matt Koperniak ‘20 (Trinity) Adams, MA

IF Max Steinhorn ‘18 (Amherst) Washington, DC

IF Tommy O’Hara ‘18 (Tufts) Glenview, IL

IF Matt Zaffino ‘21 (Hamilton) New Canaan, CT

IF Justin Han ‘20 (Middlebury) Vienna, VA

OF Matt Treveloni ‘18 (Colby) Ashland, MA

OF Alex Capitelli ‘20 (Wesleyan) North Caldwell, NJ

OF Matt Jeye ‘18 (Wesleyan) Holliston, MA

P Brent Greeley ‘20 (Tufts) West Chester, PA

P Alex Shafer ‘20 (Trinity) Baltimore, MD

P Sam Schneider ‘18 (Amherst) San Diego, CA

Clock Strikes Midnight: Weekend Preview 5/5

The Regular Season Comes Down to This:

With three out of four playoff spots secured, we wait on the Amherst vs Middlebury series to determine the 2018 NESCAC tournament schedule. Both teams were in two very different spots midseason. Midd was underachieving with a weak looking rotation after its ace. The once potent lineup from 2017 was easily contained. Amherst, in contrast, was firing on all cylinders. Clutch offense, defense, and pitching guided Amherst to a conference victory against Little Three rival, Wesleyan. However, these past few weekends haven’t treated Amherst kindly. With Wes clinching a playoff spot, and Midd rising, Amherst needed to perform in these last few games. Losing to Hamilton in a rescheduled game Thursday night didn’t help. As a result, the winner of this series will determine who’s in and who’s out.

Including non-conference games, Midd has won nine in a row. That statistic is absurd considering the entropy of baseball. Midd accomplished what neither Wes nor Amherst could do: sweeping Hamilton. Colby Morris, biggest glow up in the ‘Cac and my editor, leads the Midd staff with a 1.92 ERA. In my opinion, he’s the best pitcher in the league. Going back to my piece a few weeks back that interviewed each pitcher, I asked each of them what they do when they’re not getting any run support. To say that Morris wasn’t getting much run support early on is an understatement. However, like the GOAT of all GOATs says, ‘Do your job.’ Morris was able to keep sharp focus on his task at hand: throwing strikes, getting ground balls, and making outs. In a comparison with another ace in the league, Mike McCaffrey, Morris has logged around ten more innings pitched, while compiling less strikeouts than McCaffrey. Even though strikeouts are the tantalizing statistic among fans, Morris’ pitch count per inning has to be lower than McCaffrey because he’s not always looking for the spot on a back door breaking ball, but shooting the knees to induce a ground ball or double play. Midd’s bats have come alive as well. Freshman standouts from last year, Justin Han and Brooks Carroll, and have picked up the production at the plate with avg’s all over .300– above .350 for Carroll and Han. Hayden Smith has emerged as a stud at 3B for the Panthers too. Amherst should fear what would happen if Midd takes game one. Even though I believe that Amherst is a better all-around team, beating Morris isn’t an easy task for any ball club. That scenario would put Midd in the driver’s seat to take either game two or game three to clinch its second consecutive playoff berth.

Morris and Ferrero are going to duel it out tomorrow in game 1.

Amherst has had a roller coaster season with big wins against Wesleyan, but critical losses to Hamilton. Its road record of 4-4 in overall play in contrast with a 12-2 home record doesn’t exactly give Amherst fans confidence traveling to face a hot Midd team on their diamond. The old saying goes, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” Amherst has been a force in the conference for years and years. While the faces of Yanni Thanopoulos, Andrew Vandini, Mike Odenwaelder, and Drew Fischer are gone, names such as Harry Roberson and Max Steinhorn remain. Most importantly, Brian Hamm, a Middlebury alum, will continually put together a quality team year in and year out. That’s why I’m not overly concerned about Amherst this weekend. Yes, they’ve put themselves in a tough position by needing to win two out of three against a hot team. Like I’ve said in all my articles, there are teams that always come through in the clutch. Amherst is one of those teams. The Patriots were down by twenty-five midway through the third about Super Bowl LI. At the end of the day, the Patriots are the Patriots and the Falcons are the Falcons. The Falcons were destined to blow it. Amherst has nine guys that are hitting over .300 in overall play. Even though none of them are really the standout hitters that Tufts has, they all compete and grind out quality at bats at an extraordinary level. Even though Morris is better than Ferrero, I give Amherst the edge in overall pitching.

Harry Roberson just became Amherst’s all time hits leader, coming in hot after a slow start to the season.

Given that we had two articles on this pivotal series, we have two different projections from the recent authors. If these tell you anything, it’s that this series is a must watch:

Andrew’s Prediction: Amherst 2 games, Middlebury 1 game  

Why he chose them: This series is going to be tight. Obviously, both teams are high level ball clubs who are built to compete on this stage. I believe that both teams will take a game, but in the end, you have to go with the team that’s done it consistently before, and is acclimated with the spotlight and pressure that comes with big games.

Spencer’s Prediction: Middlebury 2 games, Amherst 1 game

Why he chose them: Midd will be able to complete their improbable comeback and return to the playoffs hungry for another shot at a NESCAC ‘ship. With their home crowd and hot streak, they should be bringing it all weekend. Whatever happens, there’s no doubt that this will be the series of the year.  

What You Gotta Know: Amherst vs. Middlebury Series Breakdown

While everybody is looking towards the playoffs, there is still one series and one playoff spot on the line. Middlebury and Amherst are playing for their playoff lives with everything on the line this weekend. Read more to find out what you need to know before Saturday’s doubleheader:

Location: Forbes Field – Middlebury, VT

 While Middlebury has only played 5 of their 28 games at home this season, they’ve certainly had success when playing on their own diamond. On the season Midd sits at 4-1 in all home contests, thanks to their current 4 game win streak at home. On the other side of the equation, Amherst has only had 7 away games this year and they are 4-3 in those contests, most notably beating Wesleyan 2 games out of 3 on the road. Overall I’d give the Panthers a slight advantage being on their home turf, but Amherst has clearly shown that they can get it done on the road, so home field advantage will not be enough to take them down.

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury) 4-4, 1.92 ERA vs Andrew Ferrero ‘19 (Amherst) 3-1, 2.19 ERA

Colby Morris ’19

Andrew Ferrero ’19

 

 

 

 

 

Game 2: Robert Erickson ‘18 (Middlebury) 3-2, 3.19 ERA vs Sam Schneider ‘18 (Amherst) 3-2, 3.22 ERA

Rob Erickson ’18

Sam Schneider ’18

 

 

 

 

 

Game 3: George Goldstein ‘21 (Middlebury) 2-0, 1.02 ERA vs Davis Brown ‘19 (Amherst) 5-2, 3.80 ERA

George Goldstein ’21

Davis Brown ’19

Game 1 of this series features two of the top pitchers in the conference this year in Morris and Ferrero. Both are Juniors, Bay Area natives (despite the fact that Morris lists himself as from Del Mar, which is fake news) (Editor’s Note: It is not fake news) and are enjoying the best years of their careers thus far. Game 1 should be a tight, low-scoring contest and will come down to which one of these aces can go the distance for their team. I would give Morris the advantage over Ferrero because he has been able to go CG in 2 of his 3 NESCAC games so far and has maintained a stellar 1.23 ERA in conference this year. Before Amherst’s loss against Hamilton I would have said that the game two matchup should be very close as well. But after giving up 6 earned in 3+ innings Davis Brown will likely have his start pushed to Sunday. That leaves the task up to Sam Schneider ’18 who will be making his last NESCAC start. Schneider got bounced after one inning against Hamilton and put up quality starts in his other two outings and is by no means a lock for success. On the other hand, Erickson has been able to hold all NESCAC West opponents to 3 runs or less per start so far this year. If both teams maintain their same rotation as last week then game 2 should be lopsidedly in favor of Middlebury. Game 3 looks to be an absolute wildcard as it pits Freshman George Goldstein, who only has one career start, against either Brown or an Amherst bullpen arm. Goldstein’s only career start came last week against Hamilton where he was able to go 5 strong, scoreless innings to get the final win of the series sweep for the Panthers. Despite Goldstein’s stellar numbers, because he didn’t go more than five innings in his start, he leaves a lot up to the Middlebury bullpen. This

Key Players:

 Middlebury

Hayden Smith ‘20: .382/.452/.461, 21 RBI, 6 XBH

Justin Han ‘20: .367/.528/.456, 18 RBI, 27 BB, 20SB

Brooks Carroll ‘20: .311/.376/.427, 12 RBI, 9 XBH, 15SB

Amherst

Ariel Kenney ‘18: .420/.496/.670, 21 RBI, 4 HR, 11 BB

Max Steinhorn ‘18: .391/.458/.461, 16 RBI, 6 XBH, 14 SB

Harry Roberson ‘18: .316/.421/.429, 11 2B, 24 RBI, 16 BB

Numbers-wise, Amherst’s offense is clearly superior to Midd’s. Lead by a trio of Seniors, Amherst currently has the best team batting average in the conference at .304 while Midd sits in 6th at .267. One thing that both of these teams do especially well is run the bases. Midd leads the conference by a significant margin with their 72 bags swiped while Amherst is 3rd with their 53 stolen bases. Interestingly, when it comes to away games for the Mammoths, their team average is less than 10 points lower than it is for home games, showing that they are not intimidated on the road. Luckily for Middlebury, their team average goes up nearly 80 points when they are on their home field, which may provide some of the offense that Midd has seemed to be lacking all season. Overall, I think that Amherst has a clear offensive advantage over Middlebury and Midd will need to use the leverage of their home field advantage, as well as their current 9 game win streak, in their favor in order to be able to match the Mammoth’s outstanding plate presence.

Midd has something going right now after two straight sweeps. Photo courtesy of David Goldstein.

Series History (Since 2007)

Overall:

Amherst: 25-9

Middlebury 9-25

Home:

Amherst: 11-4

Middlebury: 5-10

 Away:

Amherst: 10-5

Middlebury 4-11

 Neutral:

Amherst: 4-0

Middlebury 0-4

 It’s fairly clear to see that over the past decade or so Amherst has dominated their matchup against Midd. Both the home and away numbers are very similar for both teams, showing that home field advantage has not played all too much of a role in their past meetings. Although last year Midd was able to take 2 of 3 games from the Mammoths in Massachusetts and Middlebury made a much further playoff run than Amherst, so perhaps we are seeing a cultural shift happening in Vermont that is trending in the right direction. Despite the fact that history would choose Amherst over Midd by a long shot, with the recent momentum Midd has gained as well as their success last season against Amherst, this series will certainly be much tighter than it has been in years past.

What’s on the Line (Playoff Scenarios)

 Amherst: After a devastating loss to Hamilton on Thursday, the Mammoths now need to get a series win on the road in order to secure their playoff spot. Anything less than 2 wins would have Amherst go from the #1 seed to a team that will miss the playoffs entirely. If the Mammoths are able to take 2 games from Midd they will salvage their playoff spot and retain their status as the #1 seed.

Middlebury: Hamilton’s win over Amherst was a godsend for the Panthers as Midd’s comeback from last in the division is nearly complete. All Middlebury needs now is a series win at home to come all the way back from their rocky start. 2 wins or more will see Middlebury make the playoffs as the #2 seed, something that seemed unfathomable just weeks ago.

 

 

 

Divisions Keep Them Separate, But How Do They Stack Up? Baseball Midseason Power Rankings

Right In The Thick of Things: Power Rankings Week 5

I have a love/hate relationship with NESCAC baseball. On one hand, I hate the way the divisions and playoff systems work but love the way it emphasizes head-to-head matchups. As an athlete myself, I hate how fast the spring season goes for these teams that have been preparing together since they stepped on campus in the fall yet I love how quickly these teams are forced to get into the mix. So with that being said, it’s hard to believe that it’s the second week of April and there are two huge weekends of NESCAC divisional play remaining. The season is in full swing, and with it comes some Power Rankings.

  1. Wesleyan 

The only undefeated team in the conference, and although overall records don’t matter in baseball the same way they do in other NESCAC sports, the holder of the best overall record at 13-6, are the Wesleyan Cardinals. Wesleyan started their league campaign off with a 3-game sweep of defending conference finalist Middlebury. The most impressive part of their weekend was how they showcased a variety of ways they can beat you. Mike McCaffrey has begun to prove our preseason hype correct throwing 6 no-hit innings with 10 Ks, combining with Pat Clare for their first no-hitter since 1981. The duo outpitched Middlebury’s Colby Morris (never heard of him) in a 1-0 win to start the series, and then the bats followed it up with two shootout wins in which they put up double digit runs in each game. OF Alex Cappitelli ’20 continued his solid sophomore campaign by leading the team with 4 RBIs on the weekend, but the real story so far for Wesleyan has been their depth through the order. The Cards have 7 guys in their lineup hitting above .300, which is why it should come as no surprise that they lead the NESCAC in hitting with a .305 average. They will definitely be the better team when they travel to New York this weekend for a series with Hamilton and should see their West Division grow larger after a strong start.

  1. Amherst

Amherst followed up their two game sweep of Hamilton with a series win on the road against archrival Williams, putting them at a strong 4-1 in the West Division. The Mammoths are second in the league with a .299 team batting average and lead the league as a pitching staff with a collective 4.18 ERA. They’re more than likely kicking themselves for letting Williams steal Game 2 late, but the Purple and White are in great shape. They do have the toughest schedule remaining in the West with Wesleyan and Middlebury looming, 5 of those 6 games being on the road as well. OF Ariel Kenney ’18 is firmly at the front of the POY conversation with his .431 AVG, to go along with 2 HRs and 10 RBI. 3B Nick Nardone ’19 is also looking to enter that race (.322, 2 HRs, 15 RBI), and the best part for Amherst might be that SS Harry Roberson ’18 (.228 AVG, 16 RBI), has really yet to get going. There might not be a team in the league better equipped for a 3 game series.

  1. Trinity

If you’re the Bantams you definitely have every right to feel slighted with a spot at 3 in these rankings, but I think Amherst’s consistency/every team statistic available gives them the edge. Trinity has opened the season just as they had hoped, taking 2 out of 3 from both Tufts and Bowdoin. In my East Division preview I wrote that the key to Trin’s season would be keeping the poor starting pitching performances to a minimum, but they have yet to do that in the way they would’ve hoped. While they are 3rd in the league with a 4.38 ERA, it is games like their 15-8 loss to Bowdoin that could keep them from reaching the heights they are hoping to find. They caught Bowdoin P Brandon Lopez ’19 on an off night (3.0 IP, 4 R, 5 BB), but P Erik Mohl ’19 couldn’t get out of the 2nd inning (1.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R) and the Polar Bears blitzed the Trinity bullpen for eight runs in the 7th inning alone. This team can flat out rake, but we are yet to see them clicking on all cylinders like they are capable of. Tufts, like the good team they are, were able to hold them to 13 runs over 3 games, but they were able to climb up to 21 over 3 against Bowdoin. They have the firepower, and perhaps more importantly, the strength of schedule—having already seen off Tufts and Bowdoin—to take the East Division and contend for the NESCAC.

  1. Tufts

They lost 2 out of 3 games to a good Trinity team, but that is certainly not a cause for concern. RJ Hall, Brent Greeley, and Spencer Langdon combined to throw 19 IP and allow 3 runs, erasing any doubt over the turnover in the bullpen this year. They were a 5 spot in the 7th inning in Game 2 away from winning the series and climbing higher on these rankings, but this is still a really good team and the class of the NESCAC. IF Tommy O’Hara ’18 (.358 AVG, 2 HR, 15 RBI) has looked every bit the first-teamer he was last year and is certainly right in the mix for POY. The Jumbos are getting their usual mix of contributions all over the order, but if there was one place they would like to see improvement it would be in IF Nick Falkson ‘18’s batting average. The reigning league Player of the Year is showing off his usual power so far this year, to the tune of 4 HRs and 22 RBI, but his average sits at just .258., a far cry from his .373 last year. He has already doubled his big flies, but the contact has not been there quite yet. Look for that to change soon. The story of the year in Somerville, however, is the play of P Brent Greeley ’20. The sophomore has been absolutely lights out, boasting a 4-0 line with a 1.29 ERA (second in the league) in 28.0 IP. His 3.54 K/9 obviously is not indicative of overpowering stuff and time will tell if this is just a hot streak, but the fact that they have a top of the line starter is huge for them going forward. As they showed against Trinity, they have starting pitching that can go deep in games, and deep in the season.

For Midd to figure it out, Colin Waters ’19 and the rest of the pitching staff are going to have come to play versus Amherst

  1. Middlebury

I think there’s a pretty clear top 4 in the NESCAC right now, and spots 5-7 are a toss up, but I’m going to give Midd the nod here on account of strength of schedule, close games, and the fact that this is Middlebury on NbN that we’re talking about. They got swept by Wesleyan but if Colby Morris ’20 pitches like that (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K) for the rest of the year they’re not going to get swept at all (or if they don’t get no-hit). They took 2 out of 3 against a struggling Williams team in California, and although they managed to hang 20 in one of those wins, it did come against the worst pitching staff in the league, so the jury is still out on that one. The 0-3 weekend against Wesleyan makes it a really uphill battle to return the playoffs, especially with Amherst still on the schedule. Their other rather glaring problem is that they haven’t really been good at anything, hitting .252 (9th in the league) and holding the 8th best ERA at 5.57. They need some guys to really start carrying the team if they’re not going to collectively produce. Morris has shown number 1 stuff, and sophomore infielders Hayden Smith (.365 AVG, 9 RBI) and Justin Han (.344 AVG, 14 RBI) could be the catalysts offensively for the Panthers, but it’s quickly turned into do or die time.

  1. Bowdoin

Bowdoin and Bates each find themselves at 3-3 but Bowdoin took 2 out of 3 from the Bobcats, so that made this decision easy. The Polar Bears have ridden P Max Vogel-Freedman ’19 and P Brandon Lopez ’19 to a playoff spot if the season ended today, but unfortunately it doesn’t, and they still have to face Tufts. Bowdoin has utilized the long ball to its benefit with 6 different guys combining to hit 8 homers on the year. I would also like to use this time to throw a shoutout to 1B Sawyer Billings ’18 whose 2-26 with 2 HRs stat line is eerily reminiscent to my Little League production—thanks for bringing me back to the good ole days, Sawyer. Anyways, with Vogel-Freedman and Lopez pitching like they are, they should feel good about their ability to compete. If they can steal 1 or even 2 from Tufts, and then take 2 out of 3 from Colby, that would put them at either 7-5 or 6-6 in the division. Is that going to be good enough to make the playoffs?

  1. Bates

The other 3-3 team in the East are going to need some help and putting this team at 7 feels wrong but someone has to do it. The reality is that this team has taken no strides forward at the plate, and it’s going to be pretty hard (read: near impossible) to make the playoffs hitting .217 as a team. Zach Avila is the only guy hitting above .300 (.316) but none of his 12 hits have been extra base hits. Dan Trulli ’19 (.265, 2 HR, 16 RBI) is their biggest weapon at the plate, but he’s either going to need to do a lot more than what he’s doing now if he’s not going to get any help. Can Connor Russell and Justin Foley make up for it on the mound? Russell has shown he can pitch as good as any arm in the league for a day, but he’s going to have to consistently do it the rest of the way home. The reality is that with 6 games remaining, 3 each against Tufts and Trinity, the Bobcats probably didn’t do enough with their first 6 to stay in the hunt. Perhaps they can play spoiler.

  1. Colby

Colby was able to snag one off of Bates to avoid being swept in their opening weekend, getting a nice pitching performance from first-year LHP Paul Ariola (7 IP, 1 R, 6K). Colby’s biggest problem has been injuries to their pitching staff. Like, all of it. Ariola ’21 leads the team in innings pitched with just 16.1. The guys we expected to take a jump up this year are either hurt or aren’t producing. There’s really no guessing which three guys Coach Plummer will roll out to the mound on a given weekend right now, but it is yet to fully go off the rails for Colby, in large part due to the play of senior OF Matt Treveloni, who has been nothing shy of white hot. Treveloni leads the league with a .440 average to go along with 1 HR and 14 RBI. Colby is still young and has a lot of arms, and while injuries stink, it should give a lot of those young guys chances to prove themselves on the mound.

  1. Williams

It’s safe to say this season has not gone as planned for the Ephs. John Lamont and Sean Hager ’20 vanished seemingly overnight, Lamont to injury, and Hager to transferring, and what remained was a pitching staff with a comfortably league worst 7.37 ERA. Their pitchers just don’t have the stuff, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve struck out 35 less batters than the next closest NESCAC team. Their attempt to convert Kyle Dean ’20 from a reliever, a role in which he had great success last year (26.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 9.35 K/9) has not worked out, and they are desperately seeking guys to fill their rotation. The bright spots for this team have been the young guys, particularly the freshmen. Sophomore OF Mike Stamas (.375 AVG, 24 H, 1 HR, 7 RBI) has taken the jump up in second year production, but 2021s OF Erik Mini (.265, 2 HR, 7 RBI), IF Eric Pappas (.415, 17 H) and RHP George Carroll (24.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, starter of both NESCAC wins) have been what Eph fans should be most excited about. This team is also actually quite solid at the plate (.279, 4th in the NESCAC). If they can find a couple of pitchers that can join Carroll and get past the 2nd inning, and veterans like INFs Kellen Hathaway ’19 and Jack Roberts ’18 can lead this team at the top of the order, they could win some games. But they still have Wesleyan left on their schedule, and if that 7.37 ERA doesn’t drop quicker than Bitcoin their season will be ending shortly.

Zaffino and the Continentals have nowhere to go but up.

  1. Hamilton

There was some competition with Williams for this coveted spot but it goes to the Continentals because they are the only NESCAC team without a league win. Like I said with some previous teams, some of these rankings are harsh, and as the person writing them can attest, they’re not easy to do either, especially when strength of schedule is such a factor. Hamilton will turn it around and win some games going forward, although looking ahead to Wesleyan and Middlebury (and Williams) isn’t ideal, but they’ve got talent. INF Matt Zaffino has just about locked up ROY in the second week of April, putting up as good of a first season as the league has seen in a while, hitting .429 (T2), 3 HR (2nd), and 18 RBI (5th). The kids have been the story for this team, as Zaffino’s first year classmates INF Jarrett Lee (.370, 20 H, 8 RBI) and INF Matt Cappelletti (.295, 2 HR, 8 RBI) have joined in on the production party. They have yet to find consistent top end pitching, but hopefully that will come. This is going to come across as a cop out (it is a cop out) but Hamilton won’t finish 10th in the last Power Rankings, I feel pretty certain about that.

Pitching is the Catalyst: NESCAC Baseball Stock Report Week 3

Stock Up:

Messing with Hitters

This weekend Wesleyan Freshman Klevin Sosa a.k.a. the lefty Johnny Cueto of the ‘CAC, showed us that he means business. Sosa pitched an absolute gem of a game against reigning runner-ups Middlebury to give the Cardinals a win in the second game of their series sweep. Sosa tossed 6 ⅔ dominant innings to stifle the Panthers, racking up 11Ks and only allowing 2 walks and 2 hits for no runs. With a season ERA of 1.16 and a K/9 of nearly 12, Sosa is not only making a case for a NESCAC Rookie of the Year spot, but maybe a First Team bid as well if he keeps this going through conference play. His keys to success are his changes in timing, slidestepping, double-leg kicking, holding at the bottom, and generally messing with hitters. He has some of the same flair as Johnny Cueto and Marcus Stroman, and was able to pitch like them last weekend:

Preseason Awards List Accuracy

If you thought Sosa’s performance was good, then you missed the real gem. LHP Mike McCaffrey ’19 didn’t just quiet Middlebury bats, he silenced them, combining for a no-no with Pat Clare. I would like to personally thank Mike for starting to live up to my prediction (https://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=5845) that he will be this year’s West Division Cy Young. His rocky starts in non-conference matchups did have me worried and his 4.28 ERA is still not where it needs to be, but clearly McCaffrey knows how to get hot when it counts. I would also like to offer my condolences to my editor and friend, RHP Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury), who pitched a CG loss for the Panthers against McCaffrey’s Cardinals. With the way that Midd was hitting in Game 1 they may as well have let Colby have a shot at hitting McCaffrey. But as anyone who has seen Colby hit knows, he probably would have fared just as well as his teammates.

McCaffrey was three outs a way from a CG no-no. A combined no hitter isn’t too bad though.

Amherst’s Weightlifting Program

The upperclassmen duo of Nick Nardone and Ariel Kenney wreaked havoc on the ERA of Williams’ pitchers this weekend. Both Nardone and Kenney managed to hit doubles in every single game of their 2-1 series win against the Ephs. Combined, these two hit .500/.577/.773 on the weekend powering the Mammoths to 11-9 and 16-4 wins along with a tight 5-4 loss. On the season Nardone now has a very respectable .876 OPS and Kenney boasts a ridiculous .431 BA. Halfway through conference play it’s looking like Amherst could be contending with West Division rival Wesleyan for the top spot in the NESCAC. These two clubs will face off for their final in-conference series later this month in what could turn out to be a NESCAC Championship preview. For now, the Mammoths will be traveling to Vermont next weekend to take on a staggering Panther team, which could lead to further inflation of these already noteworthy stats for Kenney and Nardone.

Bates Pitching

Holding another team to only 5 runs in a series is usually unheard of in NESCAC baseball, but the boys on the mound for the Bobcats were able to pull it off this past weekend. Starting off the series for Bates was LHP Connor Russell ‘18 who shut down rival Colby College on their own turf, going the distance in a complete game shutout. Although he didn’t need it, Russell was aided with copious run support in an 11-0 blowout. Bates took that momentum into Game 2 in which, RHP Nolan Collins ‘20, went 7 strong innings, only surrendering 1 run to the Mules. LHP Jake Shapiro ‘18 then came in for the Bobcats and finished off Game 2, not allowing a run in his 2 innings of relief. Although Bates did lose Game 3, they still got a scoreless 3 ⅓ IP of relief on a combined effort by Alex Simon ‘19, Miles Michaud ‘20 and Jake Shapiro ‘18. After a fairly ugly preseason, I’m sure that the Bobcats are fired up to see that things are starting to click on the mound. Although Colby doesn’t appear to be the strongest competition in the NESCAC, teams have to take every conference win that they can in order to contend for a playoff spot. In a conference of hitters, finding a way to get it done on the mound is invaluable. 

Stock Down:

William’s Starting Pitching

When you struggle to make it to the second inning on the mound, you’re gonna have a bad time. In their series against Amherst, Williams’ starters RHP Kyle Dean ‘20 and LHP Charlie Carpenter ‘20 combined to go 0-2, only lasting 1 ⅔ IP, and amassing 13 ER on 8 hits, 6 walks and 3 Ks. Now I’m sure everyone has heard of the sophomore slump, but a combined 70.2 ERA and 8.40 WHIP for the two hurlers is a little more harsh than most could even imagine. I’m just going to go ahead and say that Dean is not going to win the Reliever of the Year award, I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong, and wow was I wrong with that one. A consolation prize goes to RHP George Carroll ‘21, who went 6 ⅔ IP and allowed 3 ER in the Eph’s lone 5-4 win. Thanks to Carroll, Williams starter’s ERA drops to 17.3 for the weekend, not great but, hey, it’s something. Williams will face both Trinity and Bates next week in a pair of battles between East and West in which they will look to bounce back from their performance against Amherst. To end on some words of encouragement for the Eph’s staff, there is nowhere to go but up, probably.

There have been plenty of runners for Williams C Alex Panstares to worry about with the state of their starting pitching.

Midd’s Playoff Hopes

As the Panthers returned east, leaving sunny SoCal, their hopes to make their way back to the NESCAC championship went south. In the NESCAC, in which you only have 12 conference games, being swept could be a death sentence for your playoff hopes. Too little, too late was the story of the weekend for the Panther lineup. Middlebury’s offense was held scoreless by Wesleyan for the first 13 innings of the series, not scoring until the 7th inning of Game 2. Maybe the reason that Midd couldn’t get their bats going is that morale was low from the get-go. At no point in any of the three games was Middlebury in the lead. This is probably due to the fact that in the first 5 innings of each game Wesleyan outscored Midd 18-4, aka too little.  Although the Panthers were able to turn it around later in the game, outscoring Wesleyan 10-5 from the 6th inning on, it was, you guessed it, too late. Baseball is a game of momentum and there was none to be found for Middlebury this weekend and it showed in the box scores. A team ERA of 9.41 and team batting average of .195 is not going to get the Panthers where they need to be. Middlebury’s series next weekend against Amherst will be make or break for their season. A sweep will put them ahead of the Mammoths in the standings and back in contention for a playoff spot but in order for the Panthers to make that happen they will need their bats to get going much much earlier.

Colby’s Infield

Lack of production is the nice way of describing Colby’s infield this weekend against Bates. As a group they went a combined 6-43 (.140 BA), left 11 runners on base, grounded into 3 double plays and got caught stealing on 2 of 3 attempts. An argument could be made that as a group they did more harm than good offensively. In the NESCAC a successful team needs to find production up and down the lineup and that was certainly not the case for the Mules in their NESCAC opener. Without a 10-30 (.333 BA) effort from Colby’s outfield the series could have been even uglier than it already was. The contrast between the Mules’ infield and outfield certainly explains why they’re currently last in the CAC with 1 ⅔ runs scored per conference game. The upsides for the Mules are two-fold; the fact that they were able to steal an away win in their final game against Bates could provide some momentum rolling into next weekend’s contest against a Trinity squad who currently leads the Eastern Division. Secondly, Senior Captain Matt Treveloni still paces the team with a .442 BA (2nd in the NESCAC), .674 SLG (3rd), 1.163 OPS (4th) and 2 3B (3rd). While Treveloni makes a strong case for First Team, as of now it still seems as if Colby won’t realize the dream of reaching their 1st ever NESCAC playoffs.

Make or Break in Week Two: NESCAC Baseball Weekend Preview

NESCAC baseball is full steam ahead, despite what this weather is telling us. This past weekend we got to smell the sweet fresh cut grass, the ear ringing BBCOR aluminum bats, and baseballs snapping leather. NESCAC baseball, as always, is giving us upset alerts. Tufts, the most dominant team in 2017, has already dropped two conference games, just one off of last season’s total. On the filp side, as expected, Amherst is off to a hot start. Most teams, however, are in the middle of the pack only a week in. This second weekend is crucial for those teams who want to distance themselves from average. Here’s the weekend preview:

Bowdoin @ Trinity:

I wrote to the NESCAC universe in my season preview that Trinity is a team to take very seriously. I said that they potentially figured out how to optimize their pitching. Taking two out of three games over Tufts isn’t just good; it’s remarkable. Tufts is like the 2014 and 2015 Wesleyan teams: they were dominant the past two seasons. The ‘Bos graduated quality starting pitching, and it showed. The mark of a good ball club is winning close games. Trin took both games by three runs or less. The Bantams simply didn’t have the run support in the game they lost. I normally pick out a player that was the difference maker; however, there’s one team stat that illustrates how talented the Bantams are: they rank first in the conference in walks. Walks increase pitch count, make fielders lose focus, and put unneeded stress on the pen. If the Bantams can keep drawing walks, they’re going to be tough to stop.

Bowdoin is also 2-1 in conference. They took two games against Bates this past weekend. Wins are wins in the end, but Bates is no Tufts. Brandon Lopez is a jack of all trades for the Polar Bears. He’s both a pitcher and utility player. He has a .250 average so far and a 4.41 ERA. These are solid stats, but they’re nowhere near Lopez’s potential. He’s a freak athlete, both football and baseball, and played a major role for the Polar Bears last year. He’s a crucial piece if the Polar Bears want to make a playoff run. They’re first in the league in stolen bases, which is a dynamic aspect to the team. Lopez can fly. If he gets on base more, the team will be even more scary on the bases.

Series prediction: Bowdoin 1, Trinity 2

Colby @ Bates:

I’ll be blunt here. Both teams probably won’t make the playoffs. Even though the season is early, I don’t either team has the depth to beat the elite of the NESCAC. I do have a bias towards Colby. Two of my high school teammates, Matt Treveloni and Will Cohen, are Mules. Trev is already on track to be in the discussion of NESCAC player of the year and is hitting .469 with 11 RBIs–leading the team by far (a figure that should fall back to earth against better competition). Trev’s the key player for the Mules as a leader in the lineup, and a guy with scary range in the outfield. Cohen has pitched decently so far. He will need to pick if the Mules want to make a deep run this season.

Bates is picking up where they left off last season: without much momentum. Bates still isn’t hitting. They are only hitting .201. They’ve only scored nine runs in three games. That’s simply not enough in NESCAC baseball. Bates needs to figure at the plate if they want to have a record over .500. The pitching has been decent and Connor Russell is their ace with a 3.95 ERA but even he hasn’t been blowing guys away. It has to be frustrating for him without any support from their lineup.

Series Prediction: Colby 2, Bates 1

Williams lacks pitching, but range in the infield and lots of backpicks from C Alex Panstares ’19 might keep them in a ballgame or two. (Photo courtesy of David Goldstein)

Amherst vs Williams

The Amherst vs Williams rivalry is one of the most storied rivalries in college. Both schools are on opposite poles, however. Amherst is on the rise. Coach Hamm has figured it out once again. Amherst can mash. They’re first in the league in homers and second RBIs. Ariel Kenney is hitting .400 with two homers on the season. Harry Roberson was one player that I said would be Amherst’s best hitter. Kenney is absolutely crushing right now, and looks like he won’t slow down. The pitching staff is doing its job too as Andrew Ferrero holds a 0.96 ERA. That’s insane in his significant sample size of over 18 innings, but he was used out of the pen last weekend rather than as a starter. Amherst is strong top down without any glaring weaknesses.

Williams was lucky to go 1-2 last weekend against Middlebury. Midd’s a strong team, and Williams appears to be weak in multiple areas. The greatest area of concern for the Ephs is starting pitching. They have no depth. The team has a 7.21 ERA, which isn’t great to put it lightly. George Carroll has a 2.81 ERA which looks great on the surface, but he has zero strikeouts in 16 innings, showing that his numbers likely are not sustainable. That tells me that he doesn’t have an electric fastball. That’s a real shame because the Ephs’ lineup is solid. They’re hitting .271 as a team, but with a 7.21 ERA, that’s not nearly high enough to compensate for a lack of quality pitching. Williams has a long way to go, so if they pick up at most one win against Amherst, that’s a win.

Series Prediction: Amherst 3, Williams 0

Middlebury @ Wesleyan

This is my series of the week. Wesleyan has shown that they’re an all around solid team. Kelvin Sosa, a freshman pitcher, has a Kershaw like delivery that doesn’t allow hitters to consistently time up their stride. He doesn’t throw hard necessarily, but his southpaw late movement is really strong. He has a 1.62 ERA with 20 k’s on the season so far. To put it bluntly, he’s nasty. Jonny Corning is showing that he’s an elite player. I personally think he has all five tools. He’s not physically imposing, but he has pop. Look for him to be on the all conference team this year or in the years to come.

While Wesleyan has a young lefty arm up in their rotation, Middlebury’s Will Oppenheim ’21 is making a name for himself, too. (Photo courtesy of David Goldstein)

Midd comes into the series with some regrets. They should’ve taken all three games against Williams last weekend. Colby Morris, my editor, is going to be key in this series. Wes can hit, and Colby can pitch. Colby isn’t making me write this about him, which is going to be made clear in the next few sentences. He has to face a deep Wesleyan lineup. Even though the Cards’ strength is obviously 1-4 in the lineup, 1-9 will not give up easily. You rarely see three pitch strikeouts against the Cards. They string together quality at bats game in and game out. I’m not saying Colby will get shelled, but he can’t try to work around guys like Ryan Earle and Chase Pratt. He has to get out of three innings below sixty pitches. If Colby has a few early innings less than ten pitches, Middlebury will win the opener, and probably the series. Game one holds all the momentum.

If Wesleyan wins game one, I don’t think Middlebury can win the next two with Olmstead or Sosa on the bump for the cards

Series Prediction: Wesleyan 3, Middlebury 0