Max Vogel-Freedman – Nothing But NESCAC

Divisions Keep Them Separate, But How Do They Stack Up? Baseball Midseason Power Rankings

Right In The Thick of Things: Power Rankings Week 5

I have a love/hate relationship with NESCAC baseball. On one hand, I hate the way the divisions and playoff systems work but love the way it emphasizes head-to-head matchups. As an athlete myself, I hate how fast the spring season goes for these teams that have been preparing together since they stepped on campus in the fall yet I love how quickly these teams are forced to get into the mix. So with that being said, it’s hard to believe that it’s the second week of April and there are two huge weekends of NESCAC divisional play remaining. The season is in full swing, and with it comes some Power Rankings.

Wesleyan

The only undefeated team in the conference, and although overall records don’t matter in baseball the same way they do in other NESCAC sports, the holder of the best overall record at 13-6, are the Wesleyan Cardinals. Wesleyan started their league campaign off with a 3-game sweep of defending conference finalist Middlebury. The most impressive part of their weekend was how they showcased a variety of ways they can beat you. Mike McCaffrey has begun to prove our preseason hype correct throwing 6 no-hit innings with 10 Ks, combining with Pat Clare for their first no-hitter since 1981. The duo outpitched Middlebury’s Colby Morris (never heard of him) in a 1-0 win to start the series, and then the bats followed it up with two shootout wins in which they put up double digit runs in each game. OF Alex Cappitelli ’20 continued his solid sophomore campaign by leading the team with 4 RBIs on the weekend, but the real story so far for Wesleyan has been their depth through the order. The Cards have 7 guys in their lineup hitting above .300, which is why it should come as no surprise that they lead the NESCAC in hitting with a .305 average. They will definitely be the better team when they travel to New York this weekend for a series with Hamilton and should see their West Division grow larger after a strong start.

Amherst

Amherst followed up their two game sweep of Hamilton with a series win on the road against archrival Williams, putting them at a strong 4-1 in the West Division. The Mammoths are second in the league with a .299 team batting average and lead the league as a pitching staff with a collective 4.18 ERA. They’re more than likely kicking themselves for letting Williams steal Game 2 late, but the Purple and White are in great shape. They do have the toughest schedule remaining in the West with Wesleyan and Middlebury looming, 5 of those 6 games being on the road as well. OF Ariel Kenney ’18 is firmly at the front of the POY conversation with his .431 AVG, to go along with 2 HRs and 10 RBI. 3B Nick Nardone ’19 is also looking to enter that race (.322, 2 HRs, 15 RBI), and the best part for Amherst might be that SS Harry Roberson ’18 (.228 AVG, 16 RBI), has really yet to get going. There might not be a team in the league better equipped for a 3 game series.

Trinity

If you’re the Bantams you definitely have every right to feel slighted with a spot at 3 in these rankings, but I think Amherst’s consistency/every team statistic available gives them the edge. Trinity has opened the season just as they had hoped, taking 2 out of 3 from both Tufts and Bowdoin. In my East Division preview I wrote that the key to Trin’s season would be keeping the poor starting pitching performances to a minimum, but they have yet to do that in the way they would’ve hoped. While they are 3^rd in the league with a 4.38 ERA, it is games like their 15-8 loss to Bowdoin that could keep them from reaching the heights they are hoping to find. They caught Bowdoin P Brandon Lopez ’19 on an off night (3.0 IP, 4 R, 5 BB), but P Erik Mohl ’19 couldn’t get out of the 2^nd inning (1.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R) and the Polar Bears blitzed the Trinity bullpen for eight runs in the 7^th inning alone. This team can flat out rake, but we are yet to see them clicking on all cylinders like they are capable of. Tufts, like the good team they are, were able to hold them to 13 runs over 3 games, but they were able to climb up to 21 over 3 against Bowdoin. They have the firepower, and perhaps more importantly, the strength of schedule—having already seen off Tufts and Bowdoin—to take the East Division and contend for the NESCAC.

Tufts

They lost 2 out of 3 games to a good Trinity team, but that is certainly not a cause for concern. RJ Hall, Brent Greeley, and Spencer Langdon combined to throw 19 IP and allow 3 runs, erasing any doubt over the turnover in the bullpen this year. They were a 5 spot in the 7^th inning in Game 2 away from winning the series and climbing higher on these rankings, but this is still a really good team and the class of the NESCAC. IF Tommy O’Hara ’18 (.358 AVG, 2 HR, 15 RBI) has looked every bit the first-teamer he was last year and is certainly right in the mix for POY. The Jumbos are getting their usual mix of contributions all over the order, but if there was one place they would like to see improvement it would be in IF Nick Falkson ‘18’s batting average. The reigning league Player of the Year is showing off his usual power so far this year, to the tune of 4 HRs and 22 RBI, but his average sits at just .258., a far cry from his .373 last year. He has already doubled his big flies, but the contact has not been there quite yet. Look for that to change soon. The story of the year in Somerville, however, is the play of P Brent Greeley ’20. The sophomore has been absolutely lights out, boasting a 4-0 line with a 1.29 ERA (second in the league) in 28.0 IP. His 3.54 K/9 obviously is not indicative of overpowering stuff and time will tell if this is just a hot streak, but the fact that they have a top of the line starter is huge for them going forward. As they showed against Trinity, they have starting pitching that can go deep in games, and deep in the season.

For Midd to figure it out, Colin Waters ’19 and the rest of the pitching staff are going to have come to play versus Amherst

Middlebury

I think there’s a pretty clear top 4 in the NESCAC right now, and spots 5-7 are a toss up, but I’m going to give Midd the nod here on account of strength of schedule, close games, and the fact that this is Middlebury on NbN that we’re talking about. They got swept by Wesleyan but if Colby Morris ’20 pitches like that (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K) for the rest of the year they’re not going to get swept at all (or if they don’t get no-hit). They took 2 out of 3 against a struggling Williams team in California, and although they managed to hang 20 in one of those wins, it did come against the worst pitching staff in the league, so the jury is still out on that one. The 0-3 weekend against Wesleyan makes it a really uphill battle to return the playoffs, especially with Amherst still on the schedule. Their other rather glaring problem is that they haven’t really been good at anything, hitting .252 (9^th in the league) and holding the 8^th best ERA at 5.57. They need some guys to really start carrying the team if they’re not going to collectively produce. Morris has shown number 1 stuff, and sophomore infielders Hayden Smith (.365 AVG, 9 RBI) and Justin Han (.344 AVG, 14 RBI) could be the catalysts offensively for the Panthers, but it’s quickly turned into do or die time.

Bowdoin

Bowdoin and Bates each find themselves at 3-3 but Bowdoin took 2 out of 3 from the Bobcats, so that made this decision easy. The Polar Bears have ridden P Max Vogel-Freedman ’19 and P Brandon Lopez ’19 to a playoff spot if the season ended today, but unfortunately it doesn’t, and they still have to face Tufts. Bowdoin has utilized the long ball to its benefit with 6 different guys combining to hit 8 homers on the year. I would also like to use this time to throw a shoutout to 1B Sawyer Billings ’18 whose 2-26 with 2 HRs stat line is eerily reminiscent to my Little League production—thanks for bringing me back to the good ole days, Sawyer. Anyways, with Vogel-Freedman and Lopez pitching like they are, they should feel good about their ability to compete. If they can steal 1 or even 2 from Tufts, and then take 2 out of 3 from Colby, that would put them at either 7-5 or 6-6 in the division. Is that going to be good enough to make the playoffs?

Bates

The other 3-3 team in the East are going to need some help and putting this team at 7 feels wrong but someone has to do it. The reality is that this team has taken no strides forward at the plate, and it’s going to be pretty hard (read: near impossible) to make the playoffs hitting .217 as a team. Zach Avila is the only guy hitting above .300 (.316) but none of his 12 hits have been extra base hits. Dan Trulli ’19 (.265, 2 HR, 16 RBI) is their biggest weapon at the plate, but he’s either going to need to do a lot more than what he’s doing now if he’s not going to get any help. Can Connor Russell and Justin Foley make up for it on the mound? Russell has shown he can pitch as good as any arm in the league for a day, but he’s going to have to consistently do it the rest of the way home. The reality is that with 6 games remaining, 3 each against Tufts and Trinity, the Bobcats probably didn’t do enough with their first 6 to stay in the hunt. Perhaps they can play spoiler.

Colby

Colby was able to snag one off of Bates to avoid being swept in their opening weekend, getting a nice pitching performance from first-year LHP Paul Ariola (7 IP, 1 R, 6K). Colby’s biggest problem has been injuries to their pitching staff. Like, all of it. Ariola ’21 leads the team in innings pitched with just 16.1. The guys we expected to take a jump up this year are either hurt or aren’t producing. There’s really no guessing which three guys Coach Plummer will roll out to the mound on a given weekend right now, but it is yet to fully go off the rails for Colby, in large part due to the play of senior OF Matt Treveloni, who has been nothing shy of white hot. Treveloni leads the league with a .440 average to go along with 1 HR and 14 RBI. Colby is still young and has a lot of arms, and while injuries stink, it should give a lot of those young guys chances to prove themselves on the mound.

Williams

It’s safe to say this season has not gone as planned for the Ephs. John Lamont and Sean Hager ’20 vanished seemingly overnight, Lamont to injury, and Hager to transferring, and what remained was a pitching staff with a comfortably league worst 7.37 ERA. Their pitchers just don’t have the stuff, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve struck out 35 less batters than the next closest NESCAC team. Their attempt to convert Kyle Dean ’20 from a reliever, a role in which he had great success last year (26.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 9.35 K/9) has not worked out, and they are desperately seeking guys to fill their rotation. The bright spots for this team have been the young guys, particularly the freshmen. Sophomore OF Mike Stamas (.375 AVG, 24 H, 1 HR, 7 RBI) has taken the jump up in second year production, but 2021s OF Erik Mini (.265, 2 HR, 7 RBI), IF Eric Pappas (.415, 17 H) and RHP George Carroll (24.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, starter of both NESCAC wins) have been what Eph fans should be most excited about. This team is also actually quite solid at the plate (.279, 4^th in the NESCAC). If they can find a couple of pitchers that can join Carroll and get past the 2^nd inning, and veterans like INFs Kellen Hathaway ’19 and Jack Roberts ’18 can lead this team at the top of the order, they could win some games. But they still have Wesleyan left on their schedule, and if that 7.37 ERA doesn’t drop quicker than Bitcoin their season will be ending shortly.

Zaffino and the Continentals have nowhere to go but up.

Hamilton

There was some competition with Williams for this coveted spot but it goes to the Continentals because they are the only NESCAC team without a league win. Like I said with some previous teams, some of these rankings are harsh, and as the person writing them can attest, they’re not easy to do either, especially when strength of schedule is such a factor. Hamilton will turn it around and win some games going forward, although looking ahead to Wesleyan and Middlebury (and Williams) isn’t ideal, but they’ve got talent. INF Matt Zaffino has just about locked up ROY in the second week of April, putting up as good of a first season as the league has seen in a while, hitting .429 (T2), 3 HR (2^nd), and 18 RBI (5^th). The kids have been the story for this team, as Zaffino’s first year classmates INF Jarrett Lee (.370, 20 H, 8 RBI) and INF Matt Cappelletti (.295, 2 HR, 8 RBI) have joined in on the production party. They have yet to find consistent top end pitching, but hopefully that will come. This is going to come across as a cop out (it is a cop out) but Hamilton won’t finish 10^th in the last Power Rankings, I feel pretty certain about that.

Who’s Coming in Second? NESCAC East Baseball Preview

East Division Preview:

Bates:

Head Coach: Jon Martin, 2nd Season, 16-18 Career Record

Projected NESCAC Record: 4-8

Key Losses: 2B/SS Brendan Fox (.270 AVG, 27 H, 17 RBI)

OF Ryan McCarthy (3 HR, 13 RBI, 7 SB)

RHP Anthony Telisca (49.2 IP, 3-2, 3.26 ERA)

1B Brendon Canavan (.257 AVG, 1 HR, 12 RBI)

Returning Starters:

3B Dan Trulli ’19 (.282 AVG, 2 HR, 14 RBI)

C Jack Arend ’20 (.271 AVG, 1 HR, 18 RBI)

SS Asher MacDonald ’18 (.241 AVG, 21 H, 12 RBI)

INF Kyle Carter ’20 (.217 AVG, 20 H, 12 RBI)

OF Will Sylvia ‘20 (.287 AVG, 1 HR, 23 H)

RHP Connor Speed ’18 (54.1 IP, 1-7, 2.98 ERA)

LHP Connor Russell ’18 (8 APP, 33.0 IP, 3.27 ERA)

Biggest Series: March 31^st vs. Bowdoin

Everything Else:

The Bobcats enter the 2018 season as a team that could finish, realistically, anywhere from 1^st to last in the East division. They finished second last year at 7-5, but limped into the NESCAC tournament, winning their first 7 games but losing their last 5, wrapping up the year by losing both of their postseason games to Middlebury and Amherst, respectively. If you include their “non-conference” games against Williams, they dropped their final 9 games against NESCAC opponents. Bates stayed in games with their pitching (3.51 ERA, 2nd in the league) and their defense (league-best .966 FPCT) but combined to hit for an abysmal .234 as a team, with a .294 slugging percentage, both comfortably last in the NESCAC. They return two of their top three pitchers in innings pitched in seniors Connor Speed and Connor Russell, who will be tasked with keeping this team in games until they can figure out how to hit. They also return their three leading hitters in Will Sylvia ’20 (.287), Dan Trulli ’19 (.282), and Jack Arend ’20 (.271). Much of their success will be determined by whether those three underclassmen can take the jump up and become difference makers, but they need to get off to a good start. Their opening NESCAC series against Bowdoin is my series to watch for them because after finishing their season the way they did, they’re going to need to find the confidence earlier rather than later in the league schedule. They boast the best defense in the league, which is generally something that is not hard to replicate, and if their pitching can be in the sub 4 ERA range, even the slightest improvements to their hitting could make a difference.

Bates needs to wake up the bats this season as they were last in the league in offense in 2017.

Bowdoin:

Head Coach: Mike Connolly, 19^th Season, 352-290-1 Career Record

Projected NESCAC Record: 4-8

Key Losses:

IF Evann Dumont-LaPointe (.270 AVG, 2 HR, 18 RBI)

IF Sean Mullaney (.240 AVG, 24 H, 12 RBI)

Returning Starters:

C Colby Joncas ’19 (.276 AVG, 27 H, 13 RBI)

1B Sawyer Billings ’18 (.313 AVG, 12 XBH, 14 RBI)

P/UTL Brandon Lopez ’19 (.333 AVG, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 44.2 IP, 4-1, 2.62 ERA)

OF Jack Wilhoite ’20 (.268 AVG, 3 HR, 10 RBI)

IF Cody Tedesco ’19 (.347 AVG, .418 OBP, 4 XBH)

IF Eric Mah ’20 (.232 AVG, 16 H, 7 RBI)

P Max Vogel-Freedman ’19 (41.2 IP, 2-3, 4.10 ERA, 7.34 K/9)

P Colby Lewis ’20 (32.0 IP, 4-3, 3.94 ERA)

Biggest Series: March 31^st vs. Bates

Everything Else:

Dropping all three to Bates to open league play last season put the Polar Bears behind the 8 ball and although they were able to get to 6-6, it was too little too late to have a chance to make some postseason noise. But their season this year will mostly come down to how they perform against Bates, and the parallels between the two are quite strong. Like their in-state rivals, the success of their season will be determined by how many guys can take the jump up this year—for them both on the mound and at the dish. All-NESCAC selection Brandon Lopez is only a junior and will hope to continue to do his best Shohei Otanei impersonation, but he’s going to need some help. Colby Lewis ’20 and Max Vogel-Freedman ’19 combined to log nearly 73 innings pitched last season, but they’re going to need one of them to step up and perform as a consistent number 2. They have guys like Jack Wilhoite ’20 (.268 AVG, 3 HR, 10 RBI) and Sawyer Billings ’18 (.313 AVG, 14 RBI) to set the table with Lopez at the plate, but they’re going to need some depth at the bottom of the order and an improvement from their .259 average as a team last year (9^th in the NESCAC) if they want to see consistent success this year. Their opening series vs. Bates might as well be the NESCAC quarterfinals, and they’re probably going to need to take 2 out of 3 if they want to make the playoffs. They would be much better off playing those games in April, as it would give them more time to sort out their order and rotation, but they’re going to be tested early instead. They’re going to win most of the games that Lopez pitches in and they need the same to be true when Lewis and Vogel-Freedman take the mound. If they can do that, they have the talent to play into May, but they need to show it in March first.

Colby:

Head Coach: Dale Plummer, 12th Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 3-9

Key Losses:

OF Ryder Arsenault (.285 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI)

C Andrew Della Volpe (.286 AVG, 6 XBH, 11 RBI)

Returning Starters:

OF Matt Treveloni ’18 (.333 AVG, 39 H, 6 SB)

OF Matt Garcia ’18 (.259 AVG, 2 HR, 14 RBI)

INF Tyler Mulberry ’19 (.304, 10 2B, 17 RBI)

INF Jackson Ward ’19 (.239, 22 H, 10 RBI)

3B William Wessman ’20 (.209 AVG, 7 RBI)

P Taimu Ito ’20 (50.2 IP, 2-3, 2.84 ERA)

P Brooks Parker ’19 (49.0 IP, 7.35 K/9, 3.31 ERA)

P Emery Dinsmore ’20 (33.2 IP, 2-3, 4.01 ERA)

Biggest Series: April 13^th-14^th vs. Trinity

Everything Else: The Mules return in 2018 looking to improve on their 3-9 record from last year. For Colby it starts in the field. Their pitching staff’s 4.22 ERA was 4^th best in the league, but their fielding percentage was dead last at .949, no thanks in part to their league leading 65 errors. When you put those two things together it should be no surprise that although they allowed 205 runs (second last), only 133 of them were earned. The pitching was really good all year, especially when you consider their three-headed monster was comprised of two freshmen in Taimu Ito and Emery Dinsmore, and a sophomore, Brooks Parker. That trio will now be one junior and two sophomores, and we all know what a difference the jump from freshman to sophomore year can make in this league. But they have to cut down on the errors, and they have to find a way to hit. The bottom three in the league in hitting looked a whole lot like the 2017 football standings: Colby, Bowdoin, and Bates. All three of these teams have other strengths, but they need to hit. Colby’s ability to go three deep in their rotation will give them to compete in all three weekend games. Hopefully Ito can take the jump into the top tier of NESCAC pitching, because they’re going to need someone that can match up with the aces in this league, and he’s my pick for most likely candidate. Parker and Dinsmore bringing up the rear means there shouldn’t be a lot of 0-3 weekends as long as they cut down on the mistakes in the field. It’s going to be an uphill battle in the league for Colby this year, but they have room to improve and there’s no reason to think they shouldn’t.

One of the key necessities for the Mules is improved defense.

Trinity:

Head Coach: Bryan Adamski, 5^th year, 69-72 Career Record

Projected NESCAC Record: 9-3

Key Losses:

INF Nick DiBenedetto (.354 AVG, 1 HR, 30 RBI)

Returning Starters:

C Alex Rodriguez ’20 (.342 AVG, 11 XBH, 23 RBI)

INF Ben Reinsch ’19 (.282 AVG, .401 OBP, 35 H)

INF/OF Matt Koperniak ’20 (.310 AVG, 1 HR, 20 RBI)

INF Cooper Mooney ’18 (.300 AVG, 1 HR, 29 RBI)

1B Johnny Stamatis ‘19 (.311, 24 RBI, 33 H)

UTIL Brendan Pierce ’19 (.275 AVG, 5 HR, 18 RBI)

P Eric Mohl ’19 (53.0 IP, 7-2, 2.55 ERA)

P Alex Shafer ’20 (44.2 IP, 3-1, 4.23 ERA)

P McLane Hill ’18 (35.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 8.92 K/9)

P Chris Speer ’18 (32.0 IP, 3-0, 0.84 ERA)

P Alex Herbst ’20 (30.2 IP, 2-1, 4.70 ERA)

Biggest Series: April 20^th-21^st vs. Bates

Everything Else: Well to say this team returned a lot would be a gross understatement. Of the 301.2 innings they pitched last year, they return all 301.2 of them. A senior-less pitching staff a year ago is now a pitching staff with 5 pitchers returing having logged 30 or more innings, including junior ace Eric Mohl and his 2.55 ERA, as well as senior stud reliever’s McLane Hill (8.92 K/9) and Chris Speer (0.84 ERA). The Bants and their 22-14 overall record were the second-best team in East, but a disastrous 0-3 weekend in Brunswick against Bowdoin, highlighted by a walkoff loss in 12 innings, did them in and they finished 5-7 and in 4^th place. But this team was second in the league in runs scored, and return a lineup that includes co-Rookie of the year C Alex Rodriguez (.342 AVG, 23 RBI), INF/OF Matt Koperniak ’20 (.310 AVG, 1 HR, 20 RBI), Brendan Pierce ’19 (5 HR, 18 RBI), and like 4 other guys that I don’t have time to mention because there is so much good college basketball on. Another thing about this Trinity team is that they can flat out run. I mean, RUN. Their 104 stolen bases were almost 50 more than the next closest team (Hamilton), and when you combine their baserunning prowess with the bats in their lineup, they have the firepower to win every league game they play. The key for them is keeping the poor pitching performances to a minimum and giving their offense a chance to win them the game. They had a couple games against league opponents that they gave away due to some self-destruction on the mound (15 runs allowed in an inning against Tufts, anyone?), and if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot like that they have the depth both on the mound and at the plate to be contenders for a championship.

Tufts:

Head Coach: John Casey, 35^th year, 699-394-4 Career Record

Projected NESCAC Record: 10-2

Key Losses:

OF Oscar Kutch (.315 AVG, 2 HR, 24 RBI)

IF Tom Petry (.289 AVG, 2 HR, 23 RBI)

OF Harry Brown (.261 AVG, 30 H, 21 RBI)

P Speros Varinos (77.1 IP, 8-1, 1.98 ERA)

P Tim Superko (54.1 IP, 6-1, 3.98 ERA)

P Rory Ziomek (14 APP, 1.04 ERA, 12.98 K/9)

Returning Starters:

3B Nick Falkson ‘18 (.373 AVG, 2 HR, 37 RBI)

INF Tommy O’Hara ’18 (.351 AVG, 4 HR, 46 RBI)

IF/OF Mike McLaughlin ’18 (.304 AVG, 2 HR, 20 RBI)

IF Casey Santos-Ocampos ’19 (.278 AVG, 1 HR, 22 RBI)

IF Will Shackleford ’19 (.368 AVG, 1 HR, 28 RBI)

OF Malcolm Nachmanoff ’18 (.182 AVG, 2 HR, 15 RBI)

P R.J. Hall ’20 (58.1 IP, 3-4, 3.39 ERA)

P Brad Marchetti ’20 (36.1 IP, 2-2, 2.97 ERA)

Biggest Series: March 30^th-31^st vs. Trinity

Everything Else:

The reigning NESCAC champions appear to be reloading this year. The loss of OFs Oscar Kutch (.315 AVG, 2 HR, 24 RBI), Harry Brown (.261 AVG, 30 H, 21 RBI), and IF Tom Petry (.289 AVG, 2 HR, 23 RBI) would be crippling to most teams attempting to repeat, but not the Jumbos. Tufts returns reigning player of the year Nick Falkson ’18 (.373 AG, 2 HR, 37 RBI) and I would like his chances to win that award again, if not for the additional return of IF Tommy O’Hara, who managed to hit .351 to go along with 4 HR and 46 RBI last year. He has a legitimate gripe over being snubbed for POY, but it went to his teammate instead. This lineup is loaded up and down with guys who can hit for both power and contact, and if Falkson, O’Hara, and co. manage to all improve on their numbers from last year then the rest of the league is in way bigger trouble than they already were. The loss of pitcher of the year Speros Varinos (77.1 IP, 8-1, 1.98 ERA), and number 2 Tim Superko (54.1 IP, 6-1, 3.98 ERA) mean that their pitching staff will certainly not be as dominant as they were last year, but RJ Hall and Brad Marchetti (94.2 IP combined) will be forced to take the step up and anchor this rotation in just their sophomore seasons. The top end starting pitching will decline, as will the depth in the lineup, but as long as the batting order features the names Falkson and O’Hara, I think Tufts should be just fine. Trinity appears ready to give them a run for their money, but the Jumbos are still the class of this division, and it will stay that way unless otherwise noted.

The End Is Nigh: Power Rankings 4/27

Before we start these rankings, I just need to call everyone’s attention to Rory’s profile on the Tufts website.

“Listen to music” is a very original tradition! Rory is quirky like that

Pretty bold claim to call yourself the “lead writer” of a blog when you haven’t written anything since basketball season, but hey, that’s just, like, my opinion man. Anyway, there are several crucial series for playoff standing in this final weekend, so let’s see where each team stands.

Tufts

Don’t worry Jumbos fans, you’re not in danger of losing your number one spot. But it is time for us to talk about Tufts’ inability to sweep a series. Despite being pretty undisputedly the best team in the league for this entire season, in each of their league series they have dropped a game, including to weaker teams like Bowdoin and Colby. I know that seems like a champagne problem (plenty of teams in the league would kill to take two out of three in every series,) but Tufts is simply too good to be dropping games to Bowdoin. Let’s delve deeper into Tufts’ losses. Obviously, none of them have come in games started by ace starter Speros Varinos ‘17, who is 7-0. RJ Hall has two of those losses Tim Superko ‘17 has one. Both of those starters have ERA above 3.4, with Superko sitting at a pedestrian 4.23. Tufts seems to have some problems in terms of depth in the starting rotation. This will not be a problem in the regular season, but in the playoffs it might manifest itself in an ugly way.

Bates

Bates’ Cinderella carriage hit a classic New England pothole last weekend against Trinity, as the Bobcats dropped two out three games. One of the reasons that Bates’ 7 game league winning streak was remarkable is that they were doing it in spite of a relatively impotent offense. Bates only hits .246 for the season, and in league play that number drops to .234. Obviously, Bates’s pitching has been making up for lack of offense so far this year. Bates’ ERA in league play is 2.25, which is nearly a full run better than Tufts (a distant second at 3.21.) Connor Speed ‘18 is the ace of the staff, with a 2.52 ERA in 35 innings. But his 1-3 record reveals the problem that Bates saw exposed against Trinity. If the pitching falters for even a moment, the offense cannot back them up. They have a three game series against Tufts coming up this weekend– that’s a must watch, by the way– and then a four game series against WIlliams. These are two of the best offenses in the league, and if they can get to the Bates staff, Bates could close the league season in the opposite way from how they started.

Middlebury

At the three and four spots we have two teams who have been steadily climbing in the standings over the last couple weeks in the Panthers and the (newly minted) Mammoths. Middlebury gets the edge because they took two of three from Amherst earlier this season. This has been a magical season for the Panthers, a program that was in desperate need of some energy. In fact Middlebury (who has clinched a playoff berth and is one Amherst loss this weekend away from the number one overall seed in the West) is the hottest team in either conference as they are riding a seven game winning streak in league play. Offensively, Middlebury relies heaviily on the senior duo of Ryan Rizzo ‘17 and Jason Lock ‘17. With a .375 OBP and 14 steals, Rizzo is a classic leadoff hitter, and Lock is adept at knocking him in (27 RBI on the year.) Sophomore Sam Graf ‘19 and Justin Han ‘20 have also put up terrific offensive seasons and keep the future bright for the Panthers.

Amherst

Amherst might be the next hottest team in the league. They have won four in a row overall and 5 of their last six in league play. Like Middlebury, Amherst is a potent offense. They have six players with on base percentages over .400, and with league RBI leader Yanni Thanopoulos ‘17 in the middle of the order, that is a dangerous proposition for opponents. But Amherst’s hot streak has been primarily due to the improvement of their pitching. They have a bonafide ace in Jackson Volle ‘17 (5-0, 1.71 ERA) but their team ERA has improved from 5.21 overall to 3.63 in league play. Amherst’s offense was always good, but now that their pitching is catching up, they are extremely dangerous.

Wesleyan

I would imagine that at the beginning of the year, Wesleyan envisioned being a little higher in these rankings than fifth. But they simply have not hit well enough to win the close games that NESCAC play often brings about. In their sweep at the hands of Middlebury last weekend, they only scored nine runs in the whole series, despite several good scoring chances. Outside of Matt Jeye ‘18, the Cardinals don’t have much in the way of power (their slugging percentage in league play is an abysmal .290.) This means that each run they give up feels like a disaster, as they will have to scratch and claw to get it back. Wesleyan has a chance this weekend to get back in the mix with a three game set against Amherst, but they’ll need a couple big hits to do so.

Williams

Williams is another team who should be somewhat disappointed to be down here at this point in the season. The Ephs have a trio of stud freshman pitchers in John Lamont ‘20, Sean Hager ‘20 and Kyle Dean ‘20 who have combined for an 8-3 record with a 2.33 ERA. They also have a possible POY in Kellen Hatheway ‘19 (.392 AVG, 1.079 OPS) and have two other excellent hitters in Jack Cloud ‘17 and Jack Roberts ‘18. And yet, here they are at 4-5 in NESCAC play, and that’s including taking three out of four from Colby last weekend. It has been their pitching that has faltered in conference play (their .303 batting average against is second worst in the league.) However, they have a three game set against Hamilton coming up. Williams should be thinking sweep there, and if they get it done, they would be at the mercy of Wesleyan sweeping Amherst to make the tournament.

Bowdoin

The Polar Bears had a pretty impressive performance against a far superior Tufts teams, grabbing a win and coming within a run of taking another. And they have a three game set against a weaker Colby team. They should be smelling sweep against the Mules, and they have the starting pitchers to do it. There may not be a player in the league who can impact a game like Brandon Lopez ‘19. Lopez is Bowdoin’s best starter at 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA, and he is also their best hitter, stroking the ball at a .342 clip with a .962 OPS. Lopez can change a game, and series on both sides of the ball. Bowdoin has two other solid starters in Max Vogel-Freedman ‘18 (2.90 ERA) and Colby Lewis ‘20 (3-2, 3.55 ERA.) If Bowdoin can somehow manage to sneak into the playoffs, this trio of starters could make them very dangerous. But they have to sweep Colby first.

Trinity

The Bantams recovered from a rough start in league play by taking two of three against East-leading Bates last weekend. They did it with pitching, holding the Bobcats (who aren’t exactly a dynamic offense, but still) to just two runs over the final two games. They have a top heavy lineup led by Alex Rodriguez ‘20 (.362 BA) and Brendan Pierce ‘18 (4 HR.) Senior Nick Dibenedetto rounds out the threats in the lineup with a .348 AVG and 24 RBI. However Trinity doesn’t get a lot of offense from the rest of their lineup, meaning that any wins they get where that trio doesn’t carry them have to be well pitched games. Against Bates, they had two of those. We will see if they get the chance in the postseason to have more.

Colby

Colby honestly just does not have the talent to win NESCAC games, but they have shown the heart to compete. Their offense lacks punch (only three home runs on the year) and their pitching has been generally horrific with a 6.23 overall ERA. However, they have grabbed two wins against superior teams (Wesleyan and Trinity,) and all three of their losses to Williams were by one run. Colby has been playing for little other than pride for some time now, and their heart as a team has shown through the losses.

Hamilton

The Continentals may be the team who has underachieved most in league play. Despite being near the top in overall offensive stats, in NESCAC games every one of their team numbers is near the bottom They have a solid pitching duo in Finlay O’Hara ‘17 and Dan DePaoli ‘18, and on paper have an excellent lineup. But they seem to have jacked up their stats a bit against a weak non-conference schedule and have been unprepared for the jump to better competition. They have a series against Williams that matters for nothing but pride. It is a good chance to honor their seniors and leave a good aftertaste in an otherwise disappointing year.

Heating Up: Power Rankings 4/10

Second baseman Tom Petry ’17 has been a rock both offensively and defensively so far for the Jumbos (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics).

Spring has officially sprung in the NESCAC. Birds are singing, flowers are blooming, and first years are fruitlessly flirting during pickup ultimate frisbee games. Alongside all these markers of spring is our favorite one; NESCAC baseball league play. With a couple league weekends under out belts, we can see certain patterns emerging. Tufts has only furthered their status as the cream of the crop, but there is an interesting battle going on for the second slot between Williams, Wesleyan, and the upstart Bates Bobcats. Get the lowdown on these storylines and more in the first baseball Power Rankings of the year.

1: Tufts (16-2, 2-1):

The Jumbos have done little to remove themselves from their preseason number one spot. They are one of the most volatile offenses in recent NESCAC memory, averaging an absoultely ridiculous 11.1 runs per game. They are led on offense by junior infielder Nick Falkson ‘17, who is leading the league in hits with 27 and strokes the ball at a .443 clip. He also is second in the league in RBI with 19 already. The Jumbos have also received great contributions from versatile sophomore Casey Santos-Ocampo ‘19, who has driven in 18 runs and reaches base at a .500 clip. Tufts has standout pitchers as well. Speros Varinos ‘17 has been the best pitcher in the league this year, with a 1.36 ERA and a 5-0 record, and the shockingly handsome Rory Ziomek ‘17 has been the heart and soul of the bullpen. And as if that wasn’t enough, they have also only made 21 errors in 18 games, second best in the league. Tufts dropped a sloppy game two weekends ago to Trinity, but they are still the class of the league.

2: Wesleyan (13-7, 4-1)

Casual baseball fans may not know this, but it is very difficult for an offense to score if they don’t hit the ball. And above all else, Wesleyan excels at preventing opponents from hitting the ball. Their pitching staff is second in the conference (to Tufts) in strikeouts per nine innings at 7.58. This helps them overcome a mediocre team ERA (4.26,), and suggests that the staff has the potential to tighten up once league play heats up. They are also second in the league in fielding percentage, again to Tufts. The Cardinals this past weekend swept Williams in a double header, taking advantage of some very shoddy work on the mound and in the field by the Ephs to come from behind in both games. There was certainly some luck involved in Wesleyan’s victories over Williams, but they are still impressive.

3: Bates (10-5, 6-0)

A six game winning streak in league play is nothing to ignore, even though the Bobcats haven’t played any of the other top five teams. The Bobcats have been achieving this success largely on the mound. Although Tufts’ staff has been more dominant in terms of strikeouts (leading the league at 142,) Bates has excelled in not giving up runs (another crucial aspect of baseball, I’m told.) The Bobcats lead the league in total ERA at 3.06, and in league play that number drops to a miniscule 2.47. They are led on the mound by the terrifically named Connor Speed ‘18, who boasts a 2.20 ERA, and several other members of their staff are under 3.00. Bates’ great pitching has allowed them to overcome a mediocre offense (.253 on the year and eight in the league in runs.) Of course, they also have swept the two worst offenses in the league in Colby and Bowdoin (ninth and tenth in the league in runs.) Bates still needs to prove that their pitching can hold up against better competition, but as of right now, consider the rest of the league on notice.

4: Williams (10-4, 4-2)

Kellen Hathaway ’19 tags out a would be base stealer (Courtesy of Williams Athletics).

After sweeping Middlebury in Arizona and rolling off an impressive eight-game winning streak, Williams’ flaws reared their ugly head in a double header against Wesleyan. In both games of the double header, Williams blew leads in the later innings due to a lack of control from pitchers in the bullpen. The Eph’s offense has been firing on all cylinders in their six league games, due mostly to their shellacking of Middlebury earlier this year. They have averaged nearly 10 runs per game, and sophomore infielder Kellen Hatheway ‘19 would right now be the leadoff hitter on the All-League Team (.463 batting average and a 1.175 OPS.) And Williams got a huge pitching performance in the third game of the Wesleyan series from freshman star John Lamont ‘20. Lamont threw a complete game, giving up just one run and striking out 15 Cardinals to give Williams a crucial win. Lamont and Hatheway are young stars for the Ephs, but they need to find some consistency at the back end of their bullpen if they want to compete for a championship this year.

5: Trinity (12-9, 3-3)

The Bantams are one of the most well rounded offenses in the league, averaging over 8 runs per game. They have several standout hitters, including our own Nick Dibenedetto, who strokes the ball at a .396 clip and sits at fifth in the league in OBP. However, the Bantams lack of power has hurt them at times. Their slugging percentage as a team is only .404, and they only have five home runs. As a result, their offense can be held in check more easily than other elite offenses that have more power, like Tufts or Williams. And unlike the teams higher on this list, Trinity simply does not have the pitching to make up for any offensive struggles. They have given up the most runs in the league (181) and surrendered 8 home runs, also the most in the league. There are a lot of things to like about Trinity’s squad, but one of their deficiencies will have to improve if they want to climb out of the middle of the pack.

6: Middlebury (2-4, 6-9)

In the interest of full disclosure, it feels very good to be writing about Middlebury this high in the rankings. In the first year of coach Mike Leonard’s tenure, the Panthers have shown marked improvement over the teams of the past few seasons. This improvement has been primarily on the offensive end. The team has struck out the second fewest times of any team in the league, pointing to improved discipline and focus. Senior Captain Jason Lock ‘17 is one of the front runners for POY (.443/.493/.656 splits,) and along with Ryan Rizzo ‘17 has provided valuable senior leadership for an otherwise very young team. A large focus of the Panthers season so far has been giving talented freshman like OF Justin Han ‘20 and IF Andrew Hennings ‘20 (1.143 OPS!) chances to play, and the team has taken some lumps as a result. Defense has been a major struggle for the Panthers. They have made 34 errors in just 16 games, many of those the product of shifting different players into new positions to see where they best fit. Middlebury may not be a playoff threat this year, but for the first time in a few years they’re on the right track.

7: Amherst (6-10, 1-2)

Amherst and Middlebury share a lot of similarities. They both have very good offenses, but have been dragged down by subpar pitching and defense. Amherst is led on offense by the best keystone combo in the league in second baseman Max Steinhorn ‘18 (.381/.444/.412) and shortstop (and ANOTHER NbN staff writer) Harry Roberson ‘18 (.377/.414/.656.) Amherst hits a .342 overall on the year, but in their first league series against Middlebury they struggled. They only scored nine runs in three games, and Middlebury’s pitching staff isn’t exactly the 1998 Atlanta Braves (6.19 ERA.) Indeed, the only team in the league with a lower ERA than Middlebury is, you guessed it, Amherst at 6.63. Amherst’s ERA is that low despite boasting the individual third best ERA in the league (Jackson Volle ‘18 at 1.53) If Amherst’s offense is going to falter as league play progresses, their pitching and defense could lead them down a very dark path this season.

8: Hamilton (10-9, 0-2)

In a departure from the normal lower tier NESCAC team recipe, Hamilton has pretty good pitching but often struggles to score runs. Senior pitcher Finley O’Hara ‘17 is the league leader in ERA at 1.13, and his versatility allows him to plug holes deeper down in the rotation. Following O’Hara is junior starter Dan DePaoli ‘18, who boasts a 1.66 ERA and has struck out 23 batters in 21 innings. However, Hamilton as a team has only scored 98 runs in 19 games, and only four runs in two games against Wesleyan in their opening league series.

9: Colby (5-14, 1-5)

Ironically, the Mules could use a little more kick, particularly on offense. Colby hits .264 as a team, not stellar but not embarrassing either. But they only slug .321, and have the same number of home runs as I do. It’s hard to win games when you have to scrape together every run, and that’s the way Colby plays. Ther pitching and defense are middle of the pack, and therefore not good enough to make up for their low scoring style. Colby will play in a lot of close games this year, but seem to lack the ability to break one open with a big hit.

10: Bowdoin (7-12, 0-3)

As much as Hamilton struggles on offense, Bowdoin makes them look like a team full of Pablo Sanchezes. The Polar Bears only bat .246 as a team, and were shut out twice by Hamilton and lost three in a row to Bates, scoring just eight runs in those three games. They don’t pitch particularly well either, with a 4.67 team ERA, but it’s hard for pitchers to relax when they have such little offensive support. Junior starter Max Vogel-Freedman is a bonafide ace with a 2.29 ERA and just four walks in 19 innings, but aside from him, Bowdoin has very little firepower offensively or pitching-wise. On a more positive note, they are very good defensively, with only 19 errors in 23 games. This discipline means that if they can get in even a little groove offensively, they could grab some wins against teams that aren’t as polished in the field, such as Middlebury and Amherst.

Random Thoughts for Kicks and Weekend Preview 4/31

Sam Berry '15 has emerged as a stud for Bates down the stretch. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics) — Sam Berry ’15 has emerged as a stud for Bates down the stretch. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Before diving into a somewhat amended weekend preview, I wanted to get a couple of thoughts out there that have nothing in common with each other. Also a note on the relative down tick in articles this spring: things come up (schoolwork mostly, nothing serious) and so I have written less. Apologies, and we want to thank everybody for sticking with us this spring.

1. Tufts loves to get hit by pitches: One of the few statistics I don’t keep track of really is HBP, but it really is a skill for hitters. The Jumbos excel at it with five of the top-six most-struck players hailing from Medford. As a unit, Tufts has been hit by a pitch 82 times; Bates is the next highest at 49. What we have heard is that this fits into a more general strategy for Tufts where they tend to crowd the plate and hit the ball the other way a lot. Considering that this year will be the seventh consecutive when they lead the NESCAC in that category, it certainly makes a lot of sense.

2. Mike Odenwaelder has a shot at 100 Total Bases: Getting to the century mark is something that no NESCAC player has done since 2010 when three players broke the mark. They must have been juicing the balls or something because Trinity’s James Wood hit 13 homers but didn’t even lead the league in that category because Noah Lynd hit 15 for Bates. These were, of course, the BESR days as well. Ah, the good old days… It’s actually worth it to take a trip down the rabbit hole and look at the NESCAC Statistics Page from that year. Anyway, Odenwaelder leads the league with 78 right now through 29 games (2.69 per game). Amherst has five games left in the regular season, and then there is the NESCAC tournament and potentially the NCAA tournament as well. At his current pace he needs 8.2 games to reach 100. It could be tight.

3. Two Freshmen on Bowdoin are named Max Vogel: Alright, so one is named Max Vogel and the other is Max Vogel-Freedman, but still pretty crazy right? We haven’t been able to figure out the exact story behind it, but you should know that both are capable ballplayers deserving of their spots on the team. One can imagine that it can be difficult for the coaching staff to talk to them. Also, one is a catcher and the other is a pitcher. I for one am rooting whole-heartedly for a Max Vogel-only battery someday.

4. Amherst gets caught stealing a lot: The generally accepted breakeven success rate for stealing bases is about 75 percent according to Fangraphs.com. Most teams are well above that success rate. Middlebury has the best success rate (7-8), but they hardly ever steal so they’re not a great example. But the Jeffs are an outlier. They are third in the league with 48 stolen bases, but where they blow everyone away is in the caught stealing department. They have been caught stealing 23 times. No other team has been caught more than nine times! A good amount of those caught stealings come from early in the season which is probably the Jeffs just testing if different guys can steal, but that still doesn’t account for the whole difference.

Huge start this weekend for Sean Meekins '15 as he tries to get Trinity back to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — Huge start this weekend for Sean Meekins ’15 as he tries to get Trinity back to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Weekend Preview

Only one series matters this weekend: Trinity at Bates to decide the second playoff spot in the East. The rest of the games are basically white noise that could tell us which players are doing well and which are struggling, but they don’t matter much in the big picture of things. Just to lay it out for you: Bowdoin is 6-6, both Trinity and Bates are 4-5. Trinity gets into the playoffs if they win two or all three games, Bates gets in if they take all three, and Bowdoin gets in if Bates takes two of three. Bad news for Bowdoin is that no matter the outcome of the first two games, either Bates or Trinity will enter the final game already eliminated.

Trinity X-Factor: Starting Pitcher Jed Robinson ’16

The Bantams have leaned on their starting pitching to get into this position, but Robinson does not have a win in conference play. He owns a 4.74 ERA in conference play but has a 2.41 ERA over the course of the year. Now is the perfect time for Robinson to come up big and go deep into a game for Trinity. He has never pitched against Bates which gives him a major advantage early in the game as they try to figure out his stuff. Robinson should also eschew from chasing strikeouts and focus on pounding the zone. Six of his nine walks on the season have come in his conference starts, and he has also had more strikeouts in those starts. Better for him to keep things simple and rely on his defense.

Bates X-Factor: Third Baseman Sam Berry ’15

The senior Berry has been far and away Bates’ best hitter in conference play. He is hitting .447 and has an astronomic .816 slugging percentage. He has hit safely in his last 14 games, and half of those games have been multiple hit performances. Just last weekend against Tuft he went off and had three home runs. He and Nate Pajka ’15 supply the vast majority of the power in the middle of the lineup. The guys in front of him need to get on base and force Trinity to pitch to Berry, who is one of the hottest hitters in the league right now.

Projected Starters:

Friday 3:00 PM: Jed Robinson ’16 (Trinity) vs. Connor Colombo ’16 (Bates).
Saturday 12:00 PM: Sean Meekins ’15 (Trinity) vs. Connor Speed ’18 (Bates).
Saturday 2:30 PM: Nick Fusco ’18 (Trinity) vs. Will Levangie ’15 (Bates)

Expect a playoff atmosphere at Bates with a larger than normal crowd because Bates students are on their ‘short term’ and have minimal class commitments at the moment. That should make it a fun one to watch.

The pitching matchups in this one carry a good amount of uncertainty. Both teams will start one freshman in a big spot. Both managers will also be ready to pull one of the starters early at the first sign of trouble. In this respect Trinity might have a slight advantage because Bates was forced to pitch some of their relievers in their loss to Bowdoin on Tuesday. The advantage is pretty minimal, mind you. We have talked before of how important Sean Meekins ’15 has been for Trinity, and Connor Colombo ’16 has been of similar importance for Bates.

The Trinity offense is certainly not what one would call dynamic, but they have come through with a lot of big hits. Having Brendan Pierce ’18 back in the lineup after he had to miss five games for a suspension is big for them. He is really the only player who can say they have hit particularly well as the team has only a .244 average in conference games.

The outcome of this series will probably rest on the shoulders of the Bates offense. Even though the Bates pitching might be shaky, Trinity is not going to blow anybody out. They have not scored double digits in a game all season. Bates needs to be able to get at the starter quickly and force the Bantams into their bullpen early. The Bobcats are a patient team overall but they can’t simply wear down the Trinity starters. Rockwell Jackson ’15 at the top of the lineup has to get on early and often. Winning all three games is not going to be easy for the Bobcats.

Somewhat hard to believe that the Bantams simply need to win this series in order to make the playoffs. They were 2-5 after dropping their opening game to Bowdoin, but the morass in the East has made it possible. I don’t think this will be the prettiest series to watch, but the end result is that one team will be celebrating a playoff berth.

Prediction: Trinity wins two of three and makes the playoffs.