Amherst Team Preview – The Jeffs Look to Keep Rolling

2013 Record: 7-1

Returning Starters: 16 (six offense, eight defense, two specialists)

Offensive Overview:

2013 was a down year for the Amherst offense. Though they still finished fourth in points per game with 21.1, Middlebury was third with 29.8 points per game. That meant Amherst came exactly as close to finishing ninth in points per game as they came to finishing third. The main problems were at the quarterback position where Head Coach EJ Mills could not settle between Alex Berluti ’17 and Max Lippe ’15. Lippe started the season as the starter and saw the vast majority of the snaps, but his occasional struggles led to Berluti seeing some significant playing time as well. Lippe brings size and experience to the position and should once again have a chance to be the undisputed starter. Running back is a strength with Kenny Adinkra ’16 and Nick Kelly ’17 possessing a good complement of skills. Adinkra is stronger and can run over defenders while Kelly is a very tall 6’2″ for a running back.

Receivers Jake O’Malley ’14 and Wade McNamara ’14 will have to be replaced with Brian Ragone ’16 inheriting the top outside position. Jackson McGonagle ’16 will see an uptick in playing time and is a big target at 6’3″. In the slot Gene Garay ’15 will give teams fits with his quick pivot routes while also returning kickoffs. Henry Falter ’15 will be the primary tight end. The offensive line lacks depth with only sixth upperclassmen so sophomores and freshman might have to play earlier than Mills would like. Scott Mergner ’15, Colman Duggan ’15, and Jonathan Woodrow ’15 have a lot of experience and will be invaluable breaking in the two new starters. Lippe and Berluti were only sacked eight times combined, and the line should be able to replicate that type of protection.

Defensive Overview:

The top four tacklers from 2013 are all back to lead a unit that should once again be one of the very best. Like so many other teams in the NESCAC, the strength of the defense is in the front seven. Amherst runs a 3-4 scheme that can shut down run attacks. Max Lehrman ’15, Robert Perdoni ’16, and Sam Caldwell ’16 all return as starters on the line that has several other upperclassmen returning for depth. In the middle Chris Tamasi ’15 enjoyed a first team All-NESCAC season in 2013, and an argument could be made that other inside linebacker Ned Deane ’15 had as good a season even though he did not earn All-NESCAC honors. Tyler Mordas ’16 returns after stepping into a starting role because of injury, and Tomas Kleyn ’16 looks to fill the other outside position after injury cut his 2013 short. Many other talented linebackers are on the roster like Parker Chapman ’17, so Mills will have the luxury of rolling out different packages for passing and running downs.

The secondary has more questions in it after the graduation of Landrus Lewis ’14 and Max Dietz ’14. Talent is still plentiful with Jaymie Spears ’16, Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16, and Chris Gow ’16 combining for 8 interceptions last season. The other corner spot across from Spears is wide open with Stefan Soucy ’17 possibly capable of making a huge jump of playing time. The secondary has to tighten up some of the holes it had despite all the interceptions they had as a group.

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Three Big Questions:

1. How good can the junior class be?

Because of the depth of talent Amherst brings in every season, each class takes time to gain playing time, but the 2016 group has already stepped into major roles especially on defense. In total 11 starters could come from the junior class with many of them already having starting experience. There are plenty of senior stars like Tamasi and Garay, but the success of Amherst will come down to their juniors.

2. Can a QB step up?

The one thing that can hold back great programs is mediocre quarterback play. And make no mistake that Amherst is a great program with the most wins of any team in the last five seasons. Berluti has great physical tools, but Lippe is the QB who Amherst will ultimately depend on because of his experience. If he can play better then the Jeffs will be right there once again in the title mix.

3. Can they continue to force turnovers?

Amherst led the NESCAC with 23 defensive turnovers with a whopping 20 of those coming as interceptions. Expecting that same number of interceptions is foolish, but an uptick in fumble recoveries could offset that. Turnovers is a statistic that can see a lot of variation year to year, and a steep drop could cause more yards and points to be scored against the Jeffs.

Team MVP: Kicker Phillip Nwosu ’15 is an unusual choice for MVP, but consider the type of team Amherst was last season. They thrived behind a strong defense and offense that didn’t mess up too often. The importance of kickers is increased in low scoring games, and Nwosu is as good as they come in the NESCAC. He is a threat from anywhere within 50 yards and will force touchbacks on most of his kickoffs.

Biggest Game: Oct. 18 at Wesleyan

Amherst needs to avenge their only loss of 2013. Last season Wesleyan came in and ruined homecoming for the senior Jeffs, and in the process the Cardinals announced they had arrived. Both Wesleyan touchdowns came after they started the drive in Amherst territory, so field position will be a point of concentration this time around. Ultimately it was losing the turnover battle by four that doomed the Jeffs last time. This time around could be a different story.

Best Tweet of the Offseason: No word on who ended up winning the Open.

This is a team with a lot of pride and talent that is more than capable of running the table.

What the Best Games of 2013 Could Mean for 2014

Obviously the best place to start when prognosticating for 2014 is last season. We don’t really have anything else to go on. Yet remember these games can only tell us so much. A large amount of randomness is at play especially with 18-22 year olds.

Without any further ado, here are the five most important games of last season along with what stories and statistics carry importance into this season.

5. November 2: Williams 14 (2-6) at Wesleyan 16 (7-1)

Wesleyan survived a major scare in this game as their offense had major struggles against Williams. The only Cardinal touchdown of the game came on a one play four yard drive after a freak series of events led to Williams punting from their one yard line. Donnie Cimino ’15 returned the punt all the way to the four yard line, and LaDarius Drew ’14 ran it in the very next play. A late Williams rally fell short when Jake Bussani ’14 intercepted a pass with less than three minutes remaining.

What it means: People point to the improvement Williams made each week when they talk about a possible rebound this year. This game stayed close mostly because Wesleyan could not convert in the red zone settling for three field goals. Still Williams got nothing from their running game and lost the turnover battle by 2. Combine that with the game being at Williams this season, and this could be the hardest game on Wesleyan’s schedule.

4. October 19: Wesleyan 20 (7-1) at Amherst 14 (7-1)

People still didn’t quite believe that Wesleyan was for real when they faced off against Amherst. After this game everyone knew the Cardinals were a threat to run the table. Though Amherst slowed down Drew and Kyle Gibson ’15 a good deal, Jesse Warren ’15 played flawlessly while his Amherst counterparts at QB struggled. Wesleyan was up 20-7 before Amherst scored a touchdown in the fourth, but Max Lippe ’15 threw an interception to seal it for Wesleyan.

What it means: The same reason why Wesleyan should worry about the Williams game should comfort them for the Amherst one: it will be in Middletown. A lot of other factors however, point to Amherst having a better shot in 2014. The 2013 game is a hard one to figure out. Wesleyan won the turnover battle 4-0, time of possession 35:56-24:04, and had three fewer penalties for thirty less yards. Yet Amherst won the first down battle 19-14, third down efficiency (Amherst 7-14, Wesleyan 3-15), and total yardage 355-310.

This was the game where Amherst’s quarterback struggles were most apparent, and it cost them the game. Head Coach EJ Mills has said he hopes and expects one of Lippe or Alex Berluti ’17 to grab the reins this year. If they do that, then the Amherst offense will be able to offset any possible drop in play from what was a fantastic Jeff defense in 2013.

3. October 26: Trinity 24 (6-2) at Middlebury 27 (7-1)

This was another wildly entertaining game that came down to Mac Foote ’14 making all the throws in the final drive before Nate Leedy ’17 sealed the win with an interception as time expired. The game appeared to be over when Middlebury turned the ball over on downs with less than three minutes remaining. The Panther defense stood tall and forced a punt before Foote took over. The two teams combined for eight attempted fourth down conversions. It took Foote 64 attempts to throw for his 310 yards because he only completed 29 throws. Evan Bunker ’14 had one of his worst games as a Bantam rushing for 28 yards on 13 attempts.

What it means: The biggest reason Trinity lost was ten penalties for 115 yards including four that lead to first downs for Middlebury. They controlled the line as 23 of Middlebury’s 100 rushing yards came on a broken play where Middlebury punter Michael Dola ’15 rushed for a first down. Middlebury will have to rely much more on their running game, but they will struggle against the best defenses in the NESCAC.

Another big takeaway was that Puzzo really carried the Trinity offense in this game. He made plays with his arm and legs accounting for 287 yards of offense. With him, the 2014 Trinity offense could have been very good, but now there a lot of questions surrounding that side of the ball for the Bantams.

2. November 2: Trinity 16 (6-2) at Amherst 17 (7-1)

Trinity had just lost a heartbreaker to Middlebury, but this was even more devastating. The Bantams allowed only 56 yards rushing, had seven more first downs, and held the ball for 36:44. Yet this was a close game that, in the words of Lee Corso, came down to special teams. Amherst converted a short field after a poor punt into a 44 yard Phillip Nwosu ’15 field goal. Then after Trinity scored a touchdown to go down one, Ben Rosenblatt ’17 missed the extra point to give Amherst the stunning victory.

What it means: 2013 was a down year for Trinity, but the two games that they lost were by the thinnest of margins. Consider the fact that Trinity only went 3-15 on third down conversions yet still outgained Amherst by 113 yards. Trinity did just about everything you want to do when you are on the road except win the turnover battle.

Amherst relied so heavily on their defense in 2013 to make plays in big moments. Landrus Lewis ’14 and Max Dietz ’14 are both gone after snagging three interceptions apiece, but a lot of talent remains including corner Jaymie Spears ’16 and safety Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16. If Amherst is once again hard to throw on, then their defense should be elite given the amount of returning talent in the front seven.

1. November 9: Wesleyan 10 (7-1) at Trinity 40 (6-2)

Trinity blitzed Wesleyan in what many expected to be a crowning day for the Cardinals as the only undefeated team in the NESCAC. Instead, Trinity dominated in all facets of the game on their way to a blowout. The Trinity defense held Wesleyan to under 100 yards on the ground while intercepting Warren three times. Meanwhile, Trinity ran at ease against the Wesleyan front seven averaging over five yards a carry and 249 in the aggregate.

Warren proved many of his detractors right as he failed to rise to the occasion when Wesleyan needed him. The back-breaking sequence for Wesleyan came late in the second quarter down 16-3. After a Trinity field goal, Wesleyan had the ball on their 37 with 3:07 left. Since Wesleyan would get the ball back to start the second half, a score here would have put them right back in the game. The play sequence went incompletion, completion for loss of a yard, interception on third down. Trinity converted the short field into a touchdown on a trick play pass from Evan Bunker to QB Puzzo. They never looked back after their 23-3 lead at half.

What it means: This game, like most others, was won in the trenches where Trinity just walloped Wesleyan. Drew didn’t have one run of more than ten yards and averaged only 2.9 yards in the game. Both Amherst and Williams got close to beating the Cardinal earlier in the year by completing half of the equation and slowing down Wesleyan’s run game. Trinity was the only team that was also able to run the ball up the gut for consistent gains. A large part of the running success came from the ability of Puzzo to rush for 53 yards, but obviously Puzzo is no longer on the roster. Presumed starter Henry Foye ’15 barely ran in 2013.

Unfortunately most teams don’t have the players in order to compete with Wesleyan in a slug ’em out fight. Trinity might not even be able to this year. In fact one of the biggest questions entering the season is just how much we should take away from this game. It’s pretty clear Trinity was ready to play, and they executed their game plan to perfection, but we just don’t know if Wesleyan was over-matched or simply didn’t show up. If it was only an off-game for Wesleyan, then we should expect the Cardinals to run through the NESCAC this season.