Coach Mills – Nothing But NESCAC

Rivalry Renewed? Rivalry Maintained: Amherst vs. Williams Game of the Week Preview

For the first time in quite a while, Amherst and Williams will meet in the last game of the season with nothing on the line—no NESCAC titles, no Little Threes, nothing. For both of these teams, that has already been taken care of unfortunately. While Williams (6-2) has had what has been its best season under Head Coach Mark Raymond, they lost their chance at both a chance at a share of the NESCAC crown and a chance at the Little Three with a heartbreaking overtime loss at Wesleyan. Amherst (4-4) has had its most tumultuous season in quite a few years—a few injuries and few overtime plays away from easily being 6-2 or 7-1. However, this is maybe the first time nearly a decade that Williams is the favorite—adding a whole new dimension to this rivalry. Regardless of what it means for the standings and for the numbers, every time these two teams play, there is a lot on the line. That’s just what this rivalry means, and it’s what it will mean tomorrow.

Key #1 for Amherst: Pick Up Easy Yards

You wouldn’t believe it, because this Amherst offense has looked anemic for much of the year, but the Mammoths are first in the league in time of possession per game (34:58) and second in the league in yards per rush (4.4). I was among the many who felt like QB Ollie Eberth’s decrease in efficiency and production this year were rooted in the fact that they were unable to replace RB Jack Hickey, but these stats tell a different story. For Amherst, they are going to have to ramp these numbers up even more—which is going to be really difficult against the best defense in the league. They need to put themselves ahead early in the downs—pick up chunks on first and second downs, to make Eberth’s job even easier. They need to take what has been one of their strengths and make it even stronger.

Key #2 for Amherst: Finish Drives

Another fun stat for Amherst that you wouldn’t believe is that they lead the league in first downs per game, with 21.5. It obviously makes more sense when you know about the TOP stats, but it is still a little surprising because they are 5^th in points per game and 5^th in yards. Their struggles lie in the fact that they score in the red zone 53% of the time (21-40), and score TDs just 43% of the time (17-40). They are going to struggle to drive on the Eph defense, because everyone does, so there will probably be less red zone opportunities than they have had in the first 8 weeks. That makes getting 6 each time that much more important.

Key #1 for Williams: Find Frank Stola

This feels really cheap to write and quite frankly I’m going to contradict myself this whole paragraph, but the Ephs really need to find a way to get their best offensive player more involved on Saturday. After being comfortably on pace to shatter the NESCAC single season receiving records, Stola has caught 3 balls for 32 yards in the last three games. Now, anyone who watches the games will tell you that he has routinely been double-teamed or even triple-teamed. That, naturally, creates a numbers advantage for a team that happens to be the best running team in the league. The results of this change in coverage has resulted in Williams running for 231 yards, 210 yards, and 296 yards in their last three games, games in which they were one stop away from being 3-0 in. So that is not to say there is anything wrong with the offensive gameplanning and approach—there clearly isn’t. But in big plays, when they can’t run RPOs because it’s a tight situation and you need to rely on your guys, that’s where Stola is needed. I put this partially on QB Bobby Maimaron, who we have constantly praised for his ability to take care of the ball, throwing just 2 INTs all year. But at one point you have to wonder if that’s a bad thing. Stola is the best jump ball receiver in the league—Saturday might be a good time to start taking more risks and throwing it up to him in the red zone, a place the Ephs have also struggled this year (7^th in scoring % and TD %).

Key #2 for Williams: Get Ahead Early

This is kind of a cop out—something I’ve emphasized a lot in various previews throughout the year. Quite frankly, the Ephs should be coming into this game on a 7-game winning streak after a win against Wesleyan, but they couldn’t get stops when they needed them or prevent the big play. The defense, outside of those big plays, is playing as well as they’ve played all year—held Wesleyan to under 300 yards and 0-8 on 3^rd down, but again, couldn’t get it done. If they play like they did last week they will win handily. But they need to get ahead early because Ollie Eberth falls into the category of NESCAC QBs who thrive when they are put in situations where they can both pass and run—Jernigan is probably the main culprit, Maimaron would fit that bill as well. If Amherst can score early and settle into the run, and allow Eberth to make comfortable throws, they’ll be in trouble. If the Ephs can make a statement early and play from the lead, that’s been their recipe for success all year. Despite their defense being outstanding, their two losses have come because they couldn’t get stops when they needed to. The best way to fix that would be to avoid those situations altogether.

Everything Else:

Throw the record book and the stats out the window when these two teams play. That’s what you’d expect to hear for a game like this right? Well, to be honest with you, that really isn’t the case between Williams and Amherst (that’s more of a Wesleyan thing). These two teams have been a fascinating stylistic matchup since Maimaron and Eberth took over as their team’s respective signal callers—both terrific running QBs who are also capable of making throws, but don’t seem to have as many weapons as they would like. Unfortunately, a knee injury to Maimaron robbed us of a Chapter 2 in this matchup last year, but this game should be just as good. The biggest thing for both these teams is how quickly can they rebound from recent weeks. Last week was a heartbreaker for Williams in Middletown. Amherst has lost three games in a row and staring at the prospect of a losing season—their first under Coach Mills and their first since 1993. I know it is easy to say that they can both shake it off because of a rivalry like this, but it’s not always that simple. I can’t predict their mentalities, but I know that Williams is playing this game at home, and that they’re the better team. This rivalry is fully back.

Prediction: Williams 24, Amherst 13

The Road Back from Heartbreak: Amherst Football Preview 2019

2018 Record: 8-1

Projected 2019 Record: 7-2

Projected Offensive Starters (*5 Returning)

QB – Ollie Eberth ‘20*

RB – Biafra Okoronkwo ‘20

WR – Turner Garland ‘21

WR – James O’Regan ‘20*

WR – Joe Masterson ‘21*

TE – Justin Berry ’20*

C – Dan Papa ’20*

RT – Brendan Coleman ’20*

OL – Jacob Ayyub ’21

OL – Nick Diprinzio ’22

OL – Peter Jerome ’20

Projected Defensive Starters (*4 Returning)

CB – Avery Saffold ‘20*

CB – Ricky Goodson ‘21

DB – John Ballard ‘20*

DB – Matt Durborow ‘21*

LB – Matt Schiano ‘22

LB – John Schiano ‘22

LB – Manny Malone ‘22

DL – Alex Katchadurian ‘20

DL – Joe Kelly ‘21

DL – Flynn McGilvray ‘22

DL – Greg Franklin ‘20*

Projected Specialists (*2 Returning)

PK – Henry Atkeson ‘20

P – Henry Atkeson ‘20*

KR/PR – Joe Masterson ‘21*

Offensive MVP: QB Ollie Eberth ‘20

The Amherst offense entirely revolves around it’s 6’2’’, 185 lb dual-threat quarterback. A two-year starter, Eberth enters his final campaign with the Mammoths in search of an elusive NESCAC Championship, one that slipped through his fingers in 2018 after suffering Amherst’s lone loss of the season against Trinity. Despite falling short of the ultimate goal, the Massachusetts native had a season to remember, finishing second in passing yards per game and fifteenth in total rushing yards en route to an All-Conference First Team selection. James O’Regan ‘20 is back to receive the bulk of Eberth’s targets in the passing game, but losing fellow wide receiver Bo Berluti ‘19 (44 rec, 610 yds, 4 TD’s) certainly hurts. On the ground, the combination of Eberth and running back Biafra Okoronkwo (95 carries for 581 yards and 4 TD’s in 2018) will be the focal point for Coach Mills and the Mammoth offense. All in all, Eberth is the true conductor on the offensive side of the ball and will be counted on time and time again to carry the Mammoths with his arm and legs in 2019.

Defensive MVP: DL Joe Kelly ‘21

Senior Greg Franklin is the lone returning starter on the defensive line for Amherst, but it’s Kelly that i’m selecting to break out in wake of two-time NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year Andrew Yamin’s departure. He finished second on the team (and tied for sixth in the conference) with 4.5 sacks as just a second-teamer, and with Franklin likely receiving most of the attention early on in the season, Kelly could burst onto the scene. He finished the 2018 season on a strong note, registering at least .5 sacks in five of his last six games. With another spring/summer of refining his game and improving under the tutelage of defensive wizard Coach Mills, Kelly is my pick to emerge as the star of the defensive line.

Biggest Game: November 2nd vs. Trinity

Amherst could very well be undefeated when they welcome the reigning NESCAC Champions, the Trinity Bantams, on senior day. Last season’s matchup ended up serving as the de-facto Championship game, with the Bantams snagging a 27-16 win after Max Chipouras ‘19 busted a game-clinching 70 yard run with under three minutes left in the fourth quarter. An early tilt with Tufts will be a tough game, but I’m not as high on the Jumbos after the departure of Ryan McDonald ‘19. Even without Chipouras, the Bantams are still the team to beat in the NESCAC, so the rematch between these two football giants will surely be one of the most entertaining matchups of the 2019 season.

Team Slogan for 2019: #Crankit

Not the most creative slogan I’ve come across in recent years, plus there’s too many ways to run with this hashtag in a negative connotation. Rating: 4.5/10

Everything Else:

Despite the talent on this squad, there are undoubtedly glaring holes on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end, the Mammoths lost three starters on the line. Juniors Eric Papa and Brendan Coleman will be tasked with leading the group, but Amherst will have to find five guys that can gel together and protect their quarterback. There are questions amongst the receivers as well; O’Regan and Berluti combined for 83 of the team’s 124 receptions, but the latter graduated in the spring. The only other player with double digit receptions last season was tight end Justin Berry ‘20 (11 receptions). Masterson was electric in the return game during 2018, but he’s being thrust into the WR2 position despite catching a mere eight targets last season. Masterson and others such as Turner Garland ‘21 and Brendan Popovich ‘20 need to emerge to give Eberth options and keep opposing defenses honest.

Matt Albino ‘21 and Greg Franklin ‘20 are looking to create havoc on the defensive line in wake of Andrew Yamin’s departure

Defensively, the Mammoths are strong at the back end. Three of the four returnees on defense reside at the corner and safety positions, and there is plenty of depth. The major question revolves at linebacker. In addition to Yamin, (who was more of a pass rush specialist despite being listed at the BUCK position), Amherst has to replace two more starters (Andrew Sommer ‘19 and John Callahan ‘19) and key reserve Jack Barrett ‘19. The quartet of linebackers accounted for 189 tackles, 15 sacks, and four interceptions. That is A LOT of production to replace in one season, and trusted to take over are (from what I can tell) three sophomores that have minimal playing experience. One possibility to ensure some more stability to the position is moving corner Ricky Goodson ‘21 back to outside linebacker; he played linebacker in high school, so at the very least he would bring knowledge to the position. I’m not too worried about the defensive line position – despite the lack of returning starters, guys like Kelly, Alex Katchadurian ‘20 and Flynn McGilvray ‘22 were key role players on last year’s team and will fill the void.

Looking at the schedule, I do think it will take time for the Mammoths to find their footing on both sides of the ball; their opening two games are perfect to work out the kinks, as they host Bates before traveling to Colby. If the Mammoths can beat the Jumbos (which I believe they will), they have a real shot at entering the Trinity matchup at 7-0. Trinity is still the clear favorite to repeat as NESCAC Champions, but Amherst has the pieces and talent to run the table early and give the Bantams a run for their money.

An Ode to the Streak

As the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end. This past Saturday, the Middlebury Panthers ended one of the more impressive streaks in NESCAC history, Amherst’s 21 game win streak. The last time Amherst College football lost a game was October 19th, 2013. To put that in perspective, the price of gas was $3.28 a gallon, Donald Trump had not begun his political career, and the Red Sox were 11 days from winning David Ortiz’ 3rd World Series ring. Spanning four seasons, the streak included three NESCAC championships, two of which featured undefeated campaigns. Prior to Saturday, the 2018 class at Amherst had never lost. Amherst’s ultimate goals for the 2016 season are by no means out of reach, but the loss to Middlebury offers a chance to look back at some of the best moments from the team’s impressive win streak…

The beginning…

The run began on October 26th, 2013 with Amherst taking down the Jumbos; a team that was in the midst of their own, more infamous streak. Game number two saw Coach Mills capture his hundredth career win after a missed PAT doomed Trinity 17-16. The 2013 season ended with a resounding 20-7 victory against rival Williams, a share of the NESCAC title, and the foundation for the run ahead.

2014

The 8-0 record that the team finished with belies just how tough the road was for this version of Amherst College football. Five of the games came down to one score including a 3-point overtime win at Wesleyan and 1-point win on the road at Trinity. These games stick out as examples for the season and streak as a whole. The win over Wesleyan came in large part due to the kicking performance of Philip Nwosu. He went 4-4 on field goals including a clutch 41-yarder to tie it in the final minute, and 35-yarder to win it 33-30 in overtime. Mind you, this was on the road, in the rain, against a team that was also undefeated at the time. The Trinity game showed that Amherst was a multidimensional team. After scoring 30+ points each of the previous three games, the Purple and White were only able to muster seven against the Bantams. But seven points were all the defense needed, stymying the Bantam offense and holding them to six points. The Trinity game also sticks out because it shows that no matter how talented a team is, to get to 21 straight wins requires a little bit of luck. Trinity missed both an extra point and a late 23-yard field goal to keep the Purple and White undefeated. The 2014 season ended with a win over Williams in the “Biggest Little Game in America,” which was played under the lights for the first time. For the second year in a row, Amherst was crowned the NESCAC football champions and the streak moved to 11 in a row.

2015

The 2015 Amherst College football team picked up right where the previous team left off, beginning the year with four straight blowout wins. Reece Foy’s emergence at QB offered stability at a position that saw three different people under center the year prior. The added offensive might meshed with the consistently dominant defense to make the team even better than previous iterations. Wesleyan offered the first real test for the Purple and White dealing them a halftime deficit of 12-7. But once again Amherst was up to the task scoring 20 2nd half points to defeat the rival Cardinals 27-18. After another blowout win over Tufts, the defense buckled down holding both Trinity and Williams to seven points over the final two contests. The offense did their part as well en route to a third straight NESCAC title and back-to-back undefeated seasons.

The End

After adding two more wins to the streak, it finally came to an end with a one- point loss to a Middlebury team that was a favorite to compete for the NESCAC championship. Amherst was down to its third quarterback after a preseason injury to the aforementioned Foy and an injury to the opening day starter, Alex Berluti ‘17. Despite a valiant effort from Nick Morales ‘19, the football just did not bounce the Purple and White’s way. Looking back, the streak could have ended a number of times but as Thomas Jefferson said, “The harder you work, the luckier you get.” There are so many factors that go into winning a football game that it is hard enough to get just one W. Winning 21 in a row is a testament to the hard work, preparation, and will to win of both the players and coaching staff. Achieving excellence is hard but maintaining excellence the way Amherst College football has is even harder. And while the streak may be over, the season is far from lost. Don’t cry because it’s over Amherst fans, smile because it happened.

What the Best Games of 2013 Could Mean for 2014

Obviously the best place to start when prognosticating for 2014 is last season. We don’t really have anything else to go on. Yet remember these games can only tell us so much. A large amount of randomness is at play especially with 18-22 year olds.

Without any further ado, here are the five most important games of last season along with what stories and statistics carry importance into this season.

5. November 2: Williams 14 (2-6) at Wesleyan 16 (7-1)

Wesleyan survived a major scare in this game as their offense had major struggles against Williams. The only Cardinal touchdown of the game came on a one play four yard drive after a freak series of events led to Williams punting from their one yard line. Donnie Cimino ’15 returned the punt all the way to the four yard line, and LaDarius Drew ’14 ran it in the very next play. A late Williams rally fell short when Jake Bussani ’14 intercepted a pass with less than three minutes remaining.

What it means: People point to the improvement Williams made each week when they talk about a possible rebound this year. This game stayed close mostly because Wesleyan could not convert in the red zone settling for three field goals. Still Williams got nothing from their running game and lost the turnover battle by 2. Combine that with the game being at Williams this season, and this could be the hardest game on Wesleyan’s schedule.

4. October 19: Wesleyan 20 (7-1) at Amherst 14 (7-1)

People still didn’t quite believe that Wesleyan was for real when they faced off against Amherst. After this game everyone knew the Cardinals were a threat to run the table. Though Amherst slowed down Drew and Kyle Gibson ’15 a good deal, Jesse Warren ’15 played flawlessly while his Amherst counterparts at QB struggled. Wesleyan was up 20-7 before Amherst scored a touchdown in the fourth, but Max Lippe ’15 threw an interception to seal it for Wesleyan.

What it means: The same reason why Wesleyan should worry about the Williams game should comfort them for the Amherst one: it will be in Middletown. A lot of other factors however, point to Amherst having a better shot in 2014. The 2013 game is a hard one to figure out. Wesleyan won the turnover battle 4-0, time of possession 35:56-24:04, and had three fewer penalties for thirty less yards. Yet Amherst won the first down battle 19-14, third down efficiency (Amherst 7-14, Wesleyan 3-15), and total yardage 355-310.

This was the game where Amherst’s quarterback struggles were most apparent, and it cost them the game. Head Coach EJ Mills has said he hopes and expects one of Lippe or Alex Berluti ’17 to grab the reins this year. If they do that, then the Amherst offense will be able to offset any possible drop in play from what was a fantastic Jeff defense in 2013.

3. October 26: Trinity 24 (6-2) at Middlebury 27 (7-1)

This was another wildly entertaining game that came down to Mac Foote ’14 making all the throws in the final drive before Nate Leedy ’17 sealed the win with an interception as time expired. The game appeared to be over when Middlebury turned the ball over on downs with less than three minutes remaining. The Panther defense stood tall and forced a punt before Foote took over. The two teams combined for eight attempted fourth down conversions. It took Foote 64 attempts to throw for his 310 yards because he only completed 29 throws. Evan Bunker ’14 had one of his worst games as a Bantam rushing for 28 yards on 13 attempts.

What it means: The biggest reason Trinity lost was ten penalties for 115 yards including four that lead to first downs for Middlebury. They controlled the line as 23 of Middlebury’s 100 rushing yards came on a broken play where Middlebury punter Michael Dola ’15 rushed for a first down. Middlebury will have to rely much more on their running game, but they will struggle against the best defenses in the NESCAC.

Another big takeaway was that Puzzo really carried the Trinity offense in this game. He made plays with his arm and legs accounting for 287 yards of offense. With him, the 2014 Trinity offense could have been very good, but now there a lot of questions surrounding that side of the ball for the Bantams.

2. November 2: Trinity 16 (6-2) at Amherst 17 (7-1)

Trinity had just lost a heartbreaker to Middlebury, but this was even more devastating. The Bantams allowed only 56 yards rushing, had seven more first downs, and held the ball for 36:44. Yet this was a close game that, in the words of Lee Corso, came down to special teams. Amherst converted a short field after a poor punt into a 44 yard Phillip Nwosu ’15 field goal. Then after Trinity scored a touchdown to go down one, Ben Rosenblatt ’17 missed the extra point to give Amherst the stunning victory.

What it means: 2013 was a down year for Trinity, but the two games that they lost were by the thinnest of margins. Consider the fact that Trinity only went 3-15 on third down conversions yet still outgained Amherst by 113 yards. Trinity did just about everything you want to do when you are on the road except win the turnover battle.

Amherst relied so heavily on their defense in 2013 to make plays in big moments. Landrus Lewis ’14 and Max Dietz ’14 are both gone after snagging three interceptions apiece, but a lot of talent remains including corner Jaymie Spears ’16 and safety Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16. If Amherst is once again hard to throw on, then their defense should be elite given the amount of returning talent in the front seven.

1. November 9: Wesleyan 10 (7-1) at Trinity 40 (6-2)

Trinity blitzed Wesleyan in what many expected to be a crowning day for the Cardinals as the only undefeated team in the NESCAC. Instead, Trinity dominated in all facets of the game on their way to a blowout. The Trinity defense held Wesleyan to under 100 yards on the ground while intercepting Warren three times. Meanwhile, Trinity ran at ease against the Wesleyan front seven averaging over five yards a carry and 249 in the aggregate.

Warren proved many of his detractors right as he failed to rise to the occasion when Wesleyan needed him. The back-breaking sequence for Wesleyan came late in the second quarter down 16-3. After a Trinity field goal, Wesleyan had the ball on their 37 with 3:07 left. Since Wesleyan would get the ball back to start the second half, a score here would have put them right back in the game. The play sequence went incompletion, completion for loss of a yard, interception on third down. Trinity converted the short field into a touchdown on a trick play pass from Evan Bunker to QB Puzzo. They never looked back after their 23-3 lead at half.

What it means: This game, like most others, was won in the trenches where Trinity just walloped Wesleyan. Drew didn’t have one run of more than ten yards and averaged only 2.9 yards in the game. Both Amherst and Williams got close to beating the Cardinal earlier in the year by completing half of the equation and slowing down Wesleyan’s run game. Trinity was the only team that was also able to run the ball up the gut for consistent gains. A large part of the running success came from the ability of Puzzo to rush for 53 yards, but obviously Puzzo is no longer on the roster. Presumed starter Henry Foye ’15 barely ran in 2013.

Unfortunately most teams don’t have the players in order to compete with Wesleyan in a slug ’em out fight. Trinity might not even be able to this year. In fact one of the biggest questions entering the season is just how much we should take away from this game. It’s pretty clear Trinity was ready to play, and they executed their game plan to perfection, but we just don’t know if Wesleyan was over-matched or simply didn’t show up. If it was only an off-game for Wesleyan, then we should expect the Cardinals to run through the NESCAC this season.