Amherst, MA, Title Town: Week 7 Game of the Week

Amherst has done nothing but celebrate this season. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
Amherst has done nothing but celebrate this season. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

Game Info: Trinity (6-0) at Amherst (6-0): 1:00 PM, Amherst, MA

There’s no doubt about it. The NESCAC Championship will be determined this Saturday when two undefeated powerhouses clash in Amherst. Technically, we could get a shared title if the winner this weekend loses in Week 8 and vice versa, the loser this weekend wins in Week 8 … but we think that’s a silly rule and so we’re going to go ahead and say that this weekend’s winner will be the NESCAC champion.

This matchup dates back to 1886 (a game which Amherst won 20-4), and the LJ’s hold the all-time advantage 58-43-9 over Trinity. But that’s all ancient history. Sports is a “What have you done for me lately” kind of business, and lately Amherst has edged out a couple of victories by the slimmest of margins. In 2013, Amherst Head Coach EJ Mills got his 100th victory as the LJ’s slipped by Trinity, 17-16. The difference in that one was a mixed extra point by former Trinity kicker Ben Rosenblatt ’17 late in the fourth quarter. Tragically for the former kicker, a missed extra point was the only difference in the 2014 matchup, as well. The Bantams offense had been suffering greatly by that point in the season. Phenomenal RB Chudi Iregbulem ’15 was banged up for most of the second half of the year. Current QB Sonny Puzzo ’18 was out for the year, and starter Henry Foye ’16 down with an injury, so fill-in Hayden Jardine ’16 was only able to manufacture one scoring drive in the first quarter. Despite multiple takeaways, Amherst was still scoreless into the fourth quarter. Finally, LB Chris Tamasi ’15 recovered a game-changing fumble that led to a 39-yard TD drive and an Amherst victory.

What does all of this mean for this year’s game? Not much more than we know it won’t come easy to either team. The Trinity offense is much improved from the one that battled with the LJ’s last year, but otherwise a lot of the same characters are back. Trinity has a brand new linebacking corps, but this year’s rendition is as good as ever. The same is true for a couple of the Amherst linebackers, but the biggest change for the Lord Jeffs is Reece Foy ’18 at quarterback.

Things have been a little off recently for Foy, who has four interceptions in his last two games and had his lowest yardage total and yards per attempt a week ago against Tufts. Foy hasn’t been able to use his legs effectively much, either, even though he has the athleticism to do so. He’s become a pass-first QB, which is commendable, especially in a day and age where we glorify “dual-threats” and love to watch QBs scramble and make plays, but maybe what he needs now is a chance to use his legs a little bit. A QB draw here, a roll out scramble there, and suddenly the linebackers start drawing in, allowing Foy to hit some of his talented wideouts over the top.

Trinity X-factor: OLB Shane Libby ’19

It didn’t really strike me that Libby was a freshman until I sat down to write this article. Yeah I knew the kid was good, but holy crap I didn’t know he was this good and this young. The Bantams run a 3-4 with three down lineman and the fourth linebacker on the line of scrimmage. As the stand-up D-end in Trinity’s base defense, his job is to get after the passer. In any game, the two keys for defenses are 1) turnovers and 2), and this is the one I’m concerned about, shutting down one phase of the opponent’s game. Pundits always focus on shutting down the run, but it can be just as effective to shut down a team’s passing game which subsequently allows a defense to bottle up the run. That’s a long way of saying that if Libby can put pressure on Foy – and improve on his team-leading 3.5 sacks – then everything else will fall into place for the Trinity defense.

Amherst X-factor: K Charlie Wall ’18

Hey! A kicker shout out!

It’s been a one-point game the last two years, and the difference has been the kicking game. Phillip Nwosu ’15 was a great kicker, but Wall has stepped in superbly. The man is 7-8 on field goals for the best percentage in the league and 21-23 on extra points – most of anyone in the NESCAC. He doesn’t have as big of a leg as Nwosu, but he’s very consistent. Whether it’s a field goal or an extra point, I’m feeling that there will be an influential kick at some point on Saturday.

The Trinity special teams will try its best to interrupt K Charlie Wall '18 and Co. (Courtesy of Michael O'Hara/Middlebury Campus)
The Trinity special teams will try its best to interrupt K Charlie Wall ’18 and Co. (Courtesy of Michael O’Hara/Middlebury Campus)

 

Everything Else

So who has the advantage? Let’s break it down.

Let’s start with the Amherst offense and the Trinity defense. Furthermore, let’s start with the passing game. Foy has been a little inconsistent, but if you look at the season as a whole, he’s actually taken remarkably good care of the ball. Here’s a fun little chart that may or may not be useful:

Quarterback Attempts Interceptions Attempts/Interception
Gabe Harrington 167 9 18.55555556
Pat Dugan 119 5 23.8
Noah Nelson 132 5 26.4
Tim Drakeley 107 4 26.75
Chase Rosenberg 82 3 27.33333333
Matt Milano 258 9 28.66666667
Gernald Hawkins 149 5 29.8
Austin Lommen 237 7 33.85714286
Sonny Puzzo 171 5 34.2
Reece Foy 171 5 34.2
Alex Snyder 173 5 34.6
Cole Freeman 124 1 124

Foy is among the league’s best in attempts/interception. However, Trinity is great at making opposing QBs pay with 11 interceptions on the season, most in the league. The Bantams are going to be focused on stopping the Amherst rushing attack, though, so I don’t see Foy making many mistakes.

In terms of the ground game, Amherst’s biggest strength is the ability to cycle backs through. Kenny Adinkra ’16 is as tough as they come, Nick Kelly ’17 was the team’s best back a year ago but has dealt with injuries this season, and Jack Hickey ’19 might be the most talented of all, combining size and speed to average 6.8 yards per carry. The Amherst O-line is elite, and while the Trinity D-line is definitely good, I give the edge to Amherst.

On the flip side, I was shocked by the sheer size of the Trinity offensive line when I saw them in person. Of course, size isn’t necessarily the only thing that matters when it comes to O-line play, but it definitely helps. RT Chris Simmons ’18 is a tank, and all Max Chipouras ’19 needs to do is follow Simmons and Co. to the promised land. But – and there’s always a “but” – Amherst’s ability to rotate six defensive linemen keeps the LJs fresh. After watching the Middlebury defensive line handle the Trinity rushing attack a week ago, I have faith that Amherst can do the same.

It’s going to be imperative for Puzzo to find some targets downfield if Trinity is going to move the football. Too often the offense relies on a big play from the defense or special teams to spark a drive. While I never count out Darrien Myers ’17 in the return game, I’ve already talked about my faith in Amherst to hold onto the football and not turn it over. Much like Foy, Puzzo hasn’t been using his legs much recently. I don’t think he’s necessarily as inclined as Foy to run anyway. But maybe this would be a good time for Puzzo to run a little bit, too. After all, Wesleyan QB Gernald Hawkins ’18 gashed the Amherst D for 85 yards on 21 attempts earlier this season.

Prediction:

If it were a simple numbers game, the analysis above would suggest that Amherst will come out on top. The Jeffs seem to have the advantage in almost every phase discussed above. I give them the edge both rushing and passing against the Trinity defense, and in their ability to stop the Trinity running attack. Where Trinity closes the gap, I believe, is in the passing game – something that might be surprising for a team that is pretty run-first – but that’s where I think they can exploit the Jeffs.

It’s going to be a low-scoring game, much like the last two seasons. And special teams could be the difference, which of course favors the Bantams. Amherst is looking for its 18th straight win, and Trinity is looking to return to the pinnacle, a place they long remained. This is one for the history books, boys and girls. One that will see Trinity end up victorious.

Trinity 17 – Amherst 14

Elation and Heartbreak in Hartford: The Stock Report 11/4

In another thrilling game between two of the top teams in the NESCAC, Amherst managed to give Trinity their second consecutive home loss by a 7-6 score. The win all but wraps up the NESCAC championship for Amherst assuming they can hold serve at home against Williams.

The NESCAC could be accurately described this year as a two-tiered league. Middlebury, Wesleyan, Trinity, and Amherst were all well above their competition. The only losses those teams had were against each other with Middlebury’s overtime victory over Williams the closest call to an upset. So while a lot of games lacked drama, when those teams matched up, it more often than not resulted in great games.

Stock Up

Wesleyan Defense: If you don’t give up any points in two games, we are going to recognize your level of play. Bowdoin and Williams are two of the lesser offenses in the league, but it is still quite an achievement. This is a senior laden defense with stars all across the board. Because of that, it can be hard for one player to stand out. Safety Justin Sanchez ’17 is the leading tackler for the Cardinals but has only the 17th most in the league. The one exception that has stood out even on Wesleyan is Jake Bussani ’14. The defensive back has a whopping six interceptions, two of which he brought all the way back to the house. Even though they are only fourth in points given up, Wesleyan has allowed 20 fewer yards per game than any other team. At this point it seems unlikely that Wesleyan is able to capture a NESCAC championship, but they still want to beat their arch-rival Trinity badly. Another shutout from the defense would do just that.

Wide Receiver Greg Lanzillo ’15 (Tufts): In his final home game, Lanzillo went out with a bang turning all three of his catches into touchdowns. He opened up the scoring with a 61 yard completion from Alex Snyder ’17 who was filling in for injured senior Jack Doll ’15. Then Lanzillo scored the final two touchdowns for the Jumbos as well to stretch the score to 28-0 in the third quarter. The Jumbos ended up cruising to the 28-7 victory over Colby and finished the season undefeated at home. Lanzillo played the role of the deep target man in a Tufts offense that threw the ball underneath on the vast majority of their passes.He ranks fourth on the team with 14 catches but actually leads the team in yards with 312. His 22.3 yards per catch would be first in the NESCAC if he qualified. Lanzillo along with all the other Tufts seniors were rewarded for their hardwork by a magical season. The legacy they leave will extend well past this year.

Running Back Shaun Carroll ’16 (Bates): One of the biggest problems for Bates all year has been their inability to gain consistent yards on the ground. Coming into Saturday, no player had more than 200 yards rushing. That made Carroll’s 80 rushing yards on 10 attempts all the more impressive. The performance was by far his best of the season, and he also scored the only touchdown for Bates on the day. Because of the cold wet conditions in Brunswick, offense was at a premium, but Carroll did a great job all game of getting to the outside and picking up yards. Bowdoin was never able to get the ball moving consistently against a very good front seven. The victory for Bates clinched the CBB title for them, the second time in three years that the Bobcats have won the title. This year was an especially sweet victory because of all the off the field tragedy for Bates. These seniors have gone through a lot and more than deserved the victory Saturday.

Stock Down

Trinity’s Luck: Absolute heartbreak for the Bantams who for the second consecutive year have lost to both Middlebury and Amherst. Trinity hasn’t slipped much, but it has slipped just enough to lose close games. Yet this was a game that the Bantams really felt they should have won. This was the second straight year that the margin of victory for Amherst was a missed extra point by Trinity. The missed extra point would not have mattered either if Ben Rosenblatt ’17 had been able to make a 24 yard field goal in the final minute of the game.

Being unlucky is also having to play your fourth string freshman quarterback for the first time all year against the most opportune defense in the NESCAC. Hayden Jardine ’18 struggled in his action of the year throwing for only 10 yards, and the Bantams were forced to become completely one-dimensional and turn to running QB Spencer Aukamp ’18 for most of the second half. All of this should not take away from Amherst of course. They went into Hartford against a team that had more motivation than anyone all year after what Middlebury did. The Jeffs played their game, keeping the ball on the ground, and winning the turnover battle. They played a great game and have proven themselves to be the class of the NESCAC this year, but the game Saturday leaves Trinity thinking: what if?

Photo Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)
Photo Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)

Williams: Look, we don’t know the details of the Williams football program, but something has gone wrong in Williamstown the last few years. Before the year started, Ephs fans (and us) thought that 2013 was a bottoming out for their proud squad. A 2-6 record is not what Williams fans expect, but there were a lot of good signs going forward. The Ephs really did play better than their record, but an 0-4 record in games decided by seven points or less doomed them. The defense was a strength with a breakout star in James Howe ’16. Most importantly for this year, Williams was returning 17 starters and brought in transfer quarterback Austin Lommen ’16 to improve the passing game. Everything looked great when in week one the Ephs laid the boom on Bowdoin and won 36-0. Since then the season has been a debacle in many ways. The offense has now been shut out twice at home, and the defense has allowed the second most yards in the NESCAC. After a lot of hope before the season, Williams can’t wait for 2015.

Next Week: The expectation before the season began was that the league championship would come down to the final week of the season. While the scenario of Williams stunning Amherst and Wesleyan beating Trinity to cause a tie between Amherst and Wesleyan at the top is still possible, it appears very unlikely. Given how bad Williams has looked this year, Amherst should have no trouble with the Ephs. The game in Middletown between Wesleyan and Trinity will be a good one, but the teams are playing for second place. Even beyond the championship race, the other games lack drama. Colby-Bowdoin last year was an instant classic that ended with one of the wildest endings in memory while also robbing Colby of the CBB title. This year, with Bates already having won the CBB, the two teams are playing simply for pride. Elsewhere, Middlebury-Tufts and Bates-Hamilton lack much in the way of a traditional rivalry.

Here is the thing however: rivalry games are still rivalry games. Maybe hypothetical television ratings are down next week because some fans won’t tune in, but don’t expect the game day experience to change much. All the motivation that players need is the combination of playing against a team you don’t like and trying to send the seniors out with a victory. Thousands of alums, students, and community members will still flock to Amherst for the Biggest Little Game in America. Though most of the usual drama is already played out, a lot still is left to be played for, and we will have every second of it covered.

What the Best Games of 2013 Could Mean for 2014

Obviously the best place to start when prognosticating for 2014 is last season. We don’t really have anything else to go on. Yet remember these games can only tell us so much. A large amount of randomness is at play especially with 18-22 year olds.

Without any further ado, here are the five most important games of last season along with what stories and statistics carry importance into this season.

5. November 2: Williams 14 (2-6) at Wesleyan 16 (7-1)

Wesleyan survived a major scare in this game as their offense had major struggles against Williams. The only Cardinal touchdown of the game came on a one play four yard drive after a freak series of events led to Williams punting from their one yard line. Donnie Cimino ’15 returned the punt all the way to the four yard line, and LaDarius Drew ’14 ran it in the very next play. A late Williams rally fell short when Jake Bussani ’14 intercepted a pass with less than three minutes remaining.

What it means: People point to the improvement Williams made each week when they talk about a possible rebound this year. This game stayed close mostly because Wesleyan could not convert in the red zone settling for three field goals. Still Williams got nothing from their running game and lost the turnover battle by 2. Combine that with the game being at Williams this season, and this could be the hardest game on Wesleyan’s schedule.

4. October 19: Wesleyan 20 (7-1) at Amherst 14 (7-1)

People still didn’t quite believe that Wesleyan was for real when they faced off against Amherst. After this game everyone knew the Cardinals were a threat to run the table. Though Amherst slowed down Drew and Kyle Gibson ’15 a good deal, Jesse Warren ’15 played flawlessly while his Amherst counterparts at QB struggled. Wesleyan was up 20-7 before Amherst scored a touchdown in the fourth, but Max Lippe ’15 threw an interception to seal it for Wesleyan.

What it means: The same reason why Wesleyan should worry about the Williams game should comfort them for the Amherst one: it will be in Middletown. A lot of other factors however, point to Amherst having a better shot in 2014. The 2013 game is a hard one to figure out. Wesleyan won the turnover battle 4-0, time of possession 35:56-24:04, and had three fewer penalties for thirty less yards. Yet Amherst won the first down battle 19-14, third down efficiency (Amherst 7-14, Wesleyan 3-15), and total yardage 355-310.

This was the game where Amherst’s quarterback struggles were most apparent, and it cost them the game. Head Coach EJ Mills has said he hopes and expects one of Lippe or Alex Berluti ’17 to grab the reins this year. If they do that, then the Amherst offense will be able to offset any possible drop in play from what was a fantastic Jeff defense in 2013.

3. October 26: Trinity 24 (6-2) at Middlebury 27 (7-1)

This was another wildly entertaining game that came down to Mac Foote ’14 making all the throws in the final drive before Nate Leedy ’17 sealed the win with an interception as time expired. The game appeared to be over when Middlebury turned the ball over on downs with less than three minutes remaining. The Panther defense stood tall and forced a punt before Foote took over. The two teams combined for eight attempted fourth down conversions. It took Foote 64 attempts to throw for his 310 yards because he only completed 29 throws. Evan Bunker ’14 had one of his worst games as a Bantam rushing for 28 yards on 13 attempts.

What it means: The biggest reason Trinity lost was ten penalties for 115 yards including four that lead to first downs for Middlebury. They controlled the line as 23 of Middlebury’s 100 rushing yards came on a broken play where Middlebury punter Michael Dola ’15 rushed for a first down. Middlebury will have to rely much more on their running game, but they will struggle against the best defenses in the NESCAC.

Another big takeaway was that Puzzo really carried the Trinity offense in this game. He made plays with his arm and legs accounting for 287 yards of offense. With him, the 2014 Trinity offense could have been very good, but now there a lot of questions surrounding that side of the ball for the Bantams.

2. November 2: Trinity 16 (6-2) at Amherst 17 (7-1)

Trinity had just lost a heartbreaker to Middlebury, but this was even more devastating. The Bantams allowed only 56 yards rushing, had seven more first downs, and held the ball for 36:44. Yet this was a close game that, in the words of Lee Corso, came down to special teams. Amherst converted a short field after a poor punt into a 44 yard Phillip Nwosu ’15 field goal. Then after Trinity scored a touchdown to go down one, Ben Rosenblatt ’17 missed the extra point to give Amherst the stunning victory.

What it means: 2013 was a down year for Trinity, but the two games that they lost were by the thinnest of margins. Consider the fact that Trinity only went 3-15 on third down conversions yet still outgained Amherst by 113 yards. Trinity did just about everything you want to do when you are on the road except win the turnover battle.

Amherst relied so heavily on their defense in 2013 to make plays in big moments. Landrus Lewis ’14 and Max Dietz ’14 are both gone after snagging three interceptions apiece, but a lot of talent remains including corner Jaymie Spears ’16 and safety Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16. If Amherst is once again hard to throw on, then their defense should be elite given the amount of returning talent in the front seven.

1. November 9: Wesleyan 10 (7-1) at Trinity 40 (6-2)

Trinity blitzed Wesleyan in what many expected to be a crowning day for the Cardinals as the only undefeated team in the NESCAC. Instead, Trinity dominated in all facets of the game on their way to a blowout. The Trinity defense held Wesleyan to under 100 yards on the ground while intercepting Warren three times. Meanwhile, Trinity ran at ease against the Wesleyan front seven averaging over five yards a carry and 249 in the aggregate.

Warren proved many of his detractors right as he failed to rise to the occasion when Wesleyan needed him. The back-breaking sequence for Wesleyan came late in the second quarter down 16-3. After a Trinity field goal, Wesleyan had the ball on their 37 with 3:07 left. Since Wesleyan would get the ball back to start the second half, a score here would have put them right back in the game. The play sequence went incompletion, completion for loss of a yard, interception on third down. Trinity converted the short field into a touchdown on a trick play pass from Evan Bunker to QB Puzzo. They never looked back after their 23-3 lead at half.

What it means: This game, like most others, was won in the trenches where Trinity just walloped Wesleyan. Drew didn’t have one run of more than ten yards and averaged only 2.9 yards in the game. Both Amherst and Williams got close to beating the Cardinal earlier in the year by completing half of the equation and slowing down Wesleyan’s run game. Trinity was the only team that was also able to run the ball up the gut for consistent gains. A large part of the running success came from the ability of Puzzo to rush for 53 yards, but obviously Puzzo is no longer on the roster. Presumed starter Henry Foye ’15 barely ran in 2013.

Unfortunately most teams don’t have the players in order to compete with Wesleyan in a slug ’em out fight. Trinity might not even be able to this year. In fact one of the biggest questions entering the season is just how much we should take away from this game. It’s pretty clear Trinity was ready to play, and they executed their game plan to perfection, but we just don’t know if Wesleyan was over-matched or simply didn’t show up. If it was only an off-game for Wesleyan, then we should expect the Cardinals to run through the NESCAC this season.