NESCAC Playoffs – Page 2 – Nothing But NESCAC

Revenge, Thy Name is NESCAC: Middlebury vs. Williams Final Preview

#2 Middlebury (23-3, 8-2) vs. #6 Williams (19-7, 5-5): 12:00 PM, Medford, Massachusetts

Overview:

And then there were two. Middlebury and Williams meet today at noon to decide the NESCAC Championship. The game is a rematch of one of the most surprising results of the regular season. In the game in Williamstown, the Ephs blasted the Panthers 89-65 in Middlebury’s only truly disappointing performance of the season. As is usually the case when the Ephs win, they were very hot from three, shooting 13-27. And they held Middlebury, the leading field goal shooting team in the league, to 40% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three. You can bet the Panthers will be looking to avenge their embarrassing performance, but Williams might just hold the keys to slowing down Middlebury’s ride to a second straight title.

Middlebury X-Factor: Close-outs

Much of Williams’ offensive strategy is based off of attacking perimeter closeouts. If a player doesn’t get out quickly enough on a three point shooter, you can bet that shot is going up, and they have more than enough outside threats to make that offense pay off. But if the closeout comes too fast, they can drive past and kick to an open three point shooter when the defense collapses. This also opens up the backdoor cuts that they love so much. As the player with the ball drives past his man, the help man is distracted, allowing his defender to cut backdoor for a layup. Middlebury’s close-outs were very shoddy in the loss in Williamstown: today they will have to come out quickly but also solidly, keeping good guarding position. If they can do that Williams will struggle to score, as they lack great one-on-one scorers outside of Daniel Aronowitz ‘17.

Williams X-Factor: James Heskett ‘19

As I mentioned above, Williams lacks players who can break down perimeter defenders one on one if the defender has a solid close-out. Against Middlebury in the regular season, Heskett begged to differ. He put up 19 points on 5-10 shooting, and went 3-4 from three. At 6’8”, Heskett is too long to be guarded by any of Middlebury’s three guards, but is quick enough and a good enough shooter and ball handler to be a matchup issue for Eric McCord ‘19, Adisa Majors ‘18 or Nick Tarantino ‘18. The best match-up for him on Middlebury is probably Matt Folger ‘20, Folger looked very comfortable in the semifinal against Trinity, scoring 8 points in a row during the second half en route to 11 points. However, the NESCAC final is still a big stage for a freshman. Heskett’s combination of size and skill might force Coach Brown to play Folger a little more than he’d like. And if he doesn’t, Heskett could be a huge factor this afternoon.

Final Thoughts:

Middlebury has to be encouraged by what they saw from Jake Brown ‘17 against Trinity. After missing the first round game against Bates with a high ankle sprain, Brown played 31 minutes against Trinity. His stats weren’t tremendous (the sloppy nature of the game kept everyone’s stats pretty low) but he looked to be moving well, and his presence allowed Middlebury to push the pace in the second half and avoid falling into too much of a barfight with the Bantams.

Jake Brown scored 23 points and dished out six assists in the win. — Jake Brown ’17 is one of the keys to Middlebury’s effort to take home a second straight NESCAC championship;

Brown’s health will be even more crucial in this game. Williams is a perimeter-centric team, which means that Middlebury’s two terrific perimeter defenders (Brown and Jack Daly ‘18) will be tasked with slowing down the ball movement and outside shooting of the Ephs. Additionally, Brown is a needed offensive weapon for Middlebury. The Ephs will try to load up on St. Amour, so Brown will probably get some good looks from three. He and Bryan Jones ‘17 need to be threats from their to open up the floor for St. Amour. Eric McCord also will probably have a strength advantage over whoever is guarding him. If Middlebury can space the floor well enough, they should look to go to him in the post early and often.

Based on the match-ups, I would pick Middlebury in this game 8 times out of 10. But that’s what I said before the regular season game too, and look what happened there. Williams has all the sports-movie momentum in the world right now, and the re-emergence of Kyle Scadlock ‘19 as a terrifying two-way threat gives them a dimension they didn’t have against Middlebury earlier in the year. However, I still think Middlebury pulls it out. The Panthers should recognize the Ephs; they’re doing the same thing Middlebury did in the tournament last year. Therefore they should know what to do with them.

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury

The Stocks Are Moving: Post-Quarterfinals Stock Report

Matt St. Amour ’17 looks to lead Middlebury to a second straight NESCAC Championship this weekend (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics).

Last week I simply mentioned the trend of each remaining team going into the playoffs, however, it’s safe to assume that all teams coming off a playoff win have their stock trending upwards. There were some unexpectedly tight games like Middlebury vs. Bates and Williams vs. Amherst, the latter of which is our first upset of the 2017 postseason. Now Williams has to travel to Tufts to face the top dog, while Middlebury takes on Trinity in what could be Bantam legend Ed Ogundeko’s last time dominating on the college court. It all begins at 2 pm on Saturday.

Stock Up

Jake Brown’s Ankle (hopefully)

Jake Brown ’17 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics).

Last time Trinity played Middlebury, Brown played just two minutes due to his ankle injury that happened at the end of the Amherst game. If he is back, the Bantams have a whole lot more to fear. Brown might not lead the team in scoring, but he leads the team and the league in assists with 6.4 per game. He controls the game, and sets the offensive tempo for the Panther offense. This injury put Midd at a severe disadvantage against Bates, but even if he plays in a limited capacity, the Panthers should have a comparative advantage to the last time they faced off against the Connecticut squad. Brown sat out all of the last two games and if set to play this weekend, giving Middlebury all of their weapons ready to go for the semifinals. While the Panthers managed to cruise to a 17 point win pretty much without Brown on February 11th against Trinity, they looked rushed and disorganized at times against Bates. The Panthers might be able to get by against the Bantams without their senior leader, but winning two games this weekend will surely be more difficult in his absence. It was definitely the right call to have Jake rest last weekend. The Panthers are rolling full steam ahead into this weekend, and whatever version of Brown they get, they’ll look better than last weekend if he’s on the court.

Kyle Scadlock and Williams’ Clutch Play

Kyle Scadlock ’19 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Williams was up just one point at the end of the first half and led 45-43 with 11:27 to go before Scadlock went on a personal 7-0 run on the Purple and White to essentially ice the game. After gaining the 52-43 lead, Scadlock’s run catalyzed the Ephs, who didn’t lead by less than 10 the rest of the way until Amherst scored a last second garbage time three pointer. Scadlock added the finishing touches on the upset performance with a monstrous dunk with nine seconds to go, vaulting Williams into the semis. While I sort of called the upset win by saying it could easily happen — not exactly a vote of confidence, I should add — Williams proved many doubters wrong by demonstrating their hot shooting in a big game situation. Their 47.2% from the field last weekend was just above their season average of 46.5%, which was good for second in the league. While Williams’ shooting is usually up and down, this was a much more dependable performance and something that the Ephs could bring again on Saturday. The duo of Scadlock and Daniel Aronowitz has something to prove, and only time will tell whether they really have ice in their veins.

Tufts Coaching

Drew Madsen ’17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics).

Clearly the Jumbos had to make an adjustment after losing star center Tom Palleschi (who we have mentioned in every article since then). The Jumbos’ loss to Amherst 84-71 on February 4th was a wake up call, showing exactly what was missing from their lineup. Drew Madsen, who for a time was Tufts’ only remaining healthy big man, is no longer looked to to put up big numbers on the offensive end. Instead, Coach Sheldon plays to Madsen’s strengths and utilizes him in more of a defensive/rebounding capacity, allowing bench players to step up. Since that Amherst game, Ethan Feldman has played more minutes, lighting it up. He is 13-22 shooting in his last three games, averaging 13.0 PPG. Everett Dayton has also had a scoring increase, getting 12 against Hamilton despite taking less shots than he had been before the Amherst game. Bottom line is the Jumbos made a great adjustment to their style of play and Coach Sheldon has been a big part of it. No matter how hobbled they are, Tufts is going to be a force this weekend in their home gym.

Stock Down

Trinity Shooting

Ed Ogundeko ’17 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Trinity was ice cold last weekend and were lucky that Wesleyan also couldn’t shoot. Had it not been for great ball control, the Bantams would’ve have a tough reality to face as 27.9% FG rarely wins games. Trinity shot just 2-14 from three-point range, which played a big part in a lowly 51 points against the Cardinals. They were over 20 points below their season average and barely saved themselves with their high volume of free throw shooting (15-22). With all of that said, the fact that they managed to win on such a poor day bodes well for this weekend. If they can manage to get some more buckets, their defense is strong enough to give them a chance against the Panthers. Ed Ogundeko had an equally terrible shooting day, but his eight points are his lowest by far this season when he has played normal minutes. However, Ogundeko is likely to have a big day with the Bantams’ backs against the wall. Since the Bantams allow the fewest points on defense in the NESCAC at 64.9, if they can figure out what went wrong on February 11th (97 points allowed to Midd) and they recall how to score efficiently, they’ll have a fighting chance.

NESCAC’s NCAA Hopes

While Middlebury, Tufts, and Amherst are all still in the D3Hoops top 25, it’s clear that 2016 offered a better shot at a NESCAC national championship. Without their star player Palleschi, Tufts will have a tough time against the top D3 teams. Middlebury looks great, but Brown’s ankle injury leaves some doubt as to whether he will be back to 100% this season, and it just makes me cringe to think of how good they would be if Zach Baines was still there. Amherst looked terrible recently against Williams and Middlebury and while they might still get a bid to the tourney, they can’t be expected to go far with their inconsistent play. Wesleyan just dropped out of the top 25 and will be a long shot to get an at large bid with their first round exit in the conference tournament, and both Trinity and Williams likely won’t go to the dance without automatic bids. Let’s hope one team puts it all together this weekend and throughout March, because nobody wants to see #1 ranked Babson win it.

The Ancient Battle: Williams at Amherst Quarterfinals Preview

#6 Williams (17-7, 5-5) at #3 Amherst (17-6, 7-3), Saturday, February 18, 2:00 PM, Amherst, Massachusetts

Overview:

It is so, so, so fitting that the Amherst-Williams rivalry gets to play out in the first round of the NESCAC tournament this weekend. As a little kid, I grew up attending Amherst basketball games. I idolized the likes of Andrew Olson ‘08 and Dan Wheeler ‘07 while I demonized the dreaded Williams squad and their silly cow mascot. I think I still have a shirt at home (far too small at this point) that reads “Eph, it’s what’s for dinner” with a picture of an Eph on the end of a fork. Yes, I grew up hating Williams, but since I arrived at Tufts I’ve lacked that ‘rival’ feeling for the Ephs and have flipped the script on my feelings for Amherst. That being said, real recognize real – Amherst is very, very good, especially when it comes time for the NESCAC basketball tournament. Given recent history and this season as a whole, this is a TOUGH match-up for Williams. Then again, Williams has had quite a bit of success in the NESCAC tournament as well, and the NESCAC trophy is no stranger to Williamstown.

Dating back to 2001, Amherst has won the most NESCAC championships: seven. Second place? Williams, who has four. However, Williams’ success comes earlier in the 21st century – the Ephs actually haven’t won the conference championship since 2010, and the last two times they were in the finals (2013, 2014), they lost to none other than Amherst. Over the past 16 years, in fact, Amherst has only failed to move past the semifinals three times. This means that if Amherst makes the finals, they are more likely to win the title game than to lose it. If Williams wants to reverse the direction of the rivalry, today is a good place to start.

Amherst X-Factor: Guard Michael Riopel ‘18

Michael Riopel ’18
(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

If there was a 6th Man of the Year award, I would vote for Riopel 11 times out of 10. At 6’5”, his ability to come off the bench and either shoot the trey ball or get to the rack puts a lot of pressure on smaller and bigger guards alike that draw the short straw and have to match up with him. The junior has been fine against Williams this year, but I’m still waiting for him to light it up. He will likely be faced with a combination of Aronowitz, Teal, and Chris Galvin ‘18, all of whom he can take advantage of in different ways. After his two great performances against Williams, I would suspect that the Ephs will be in a crazy help defense to neutralize Dawson’s drives to the hoop. If this is the case, look for Rio to drain a few from downtown.

Williams X-Factor: Guard Cole Teal ‘18

Cole Teal ’18
(Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Williams needs a strong performance from Teal today, end of story. I don’t know if it was due to injury or something, but the nine minutes that Teal played in game two of the season series left the Williams offense in quite the rut. The way that the Ephs jack up threes, they can’t afford to be without their purest shooter, and Teal needs to show up. If he can get one or two to drop early, Amherst will have a much harder time staying in front of Casey and Aronowitz. It will also give sophomore Kyle Scadlock more room to work down in the post on Amherst’s Jacob Nabatoff ‘17. Defensively, however, Teal needs to be just as much of a workhorse. The Ephs cannot withstand strong performances from all three of Amherst’s top scorers – Dawson, McCarthy and Riopel – so Teal is going to need to play lockdown D on one of the latter two. Even if McCarthy or Riopel gets their points, as long as Teal makes it tough for them, he’s doing his job. Amherst isn’t the most selective team offensively, so if Teal can even make it a tad more difficult for them, Williams has a shot to pull of the upset. That being said, he can’t just play one side of the court – Teal needs to show up on both offense and defense if the Ephs are to have a chance.

Recent History:

Both of the Amherst-Williams matchups this year have ended in eight-point victories for Amherst. The first, a non-conference tilt played in Williamstown, was a tale of two very different teams. Amherst spread the floor and spread their scoring, taking the pressure off of Jayde Dawson ‘18 and Johnny McCarthy ‘18 for a change (though the two still scored 19 and 15 respectively). Coach Hixon only sent eight different players out on the floor for Amherst, but it was enough, and after a run to begin the second half, Amherst was able to maintain their lead and hold off the admirable efforts out of Cole Teal ‘18 and Dan Aronowitz ‘17. The two studs from Williams went off, netting 26 and 21 respectively, but unfortunately the rest of their team left their offense in the locker room. The Williams bigs struggled, resulting in a 80-72 loss for the Ephs.

In round two of this historic rivalry, the Purple and White hosted the Ephs in Amherst, this time ending in a 72-64 Amherst W. While Aronowitz again stepped up to the challenge, Teal barely saw the floor, and the Ephs just didn’t have enough firepower to match the Amherst attack. Bobby Casey ‘19 had an inefficient 11 points, and freshman Matt Karpowicz (who I am saying will undoubtedly be an All-NESCAC performer is junior year, if not next year), had a solid game with 12 points of his own. Unfortunately for Williams, that was it offensively, and Amherst walked away with a 2-0 lead in the season series after another strong performance from Dawson.

Final Thoughts:

This is a big mismatch at first glance, but these two teams are actually fairly similar. They both place a great deal of their offense in the hands of two terrific perimeter players (McCarthy and Dawson for Amherst and Aronowitz and Teal for WIlliams.) And they both lack consistent scoring inside, as their frontcourt rotations are filled with young players who haven’t stepped up to this point.

Williams offense will need to be firing on all cylinders if they want to pull off the upset.

Williams matches up fairly well with Amherst defensively. Teal and Aronowitz are both long, rangy defenders who can give problems to Dawson and McCarthy. However, what I think will doom Williams in this game is a lack of depth. Aronowitz and Teal have proven themselves capable of playing great games on both sides of the ball against Amherst, but it they’re busy chasing around Dawson and McCarthy all day, who else is going to score for the Ephs? Amherst is also too reliant on their two best players, but Riopel and Eric Conklin ’17 are ready to take some pressure off. Williams will need to have another game like they did against Middlebury, in which every player is cooking from three. It’s happened before, but I don’t see it happening again.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst